PRELIMINARY NOTIONS

Probability is a major topic in statistics that deals with the likelihood or

chance that an event will occur
It has numerous applications on making inferential decisions in virus fields.
The basic principles of probability were first formulated to analyze the
outcomes.

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT
// A statistical experiment (or simply an experiment) is any controlled repeatable
process that results to well-defined outcomes. It is a process that generates a set of
data.

Such an experiment is considered random since it is not possible to predict

its outcome.

SAMPLE SPACE, SAMPLE POINT, AND EVENT

//A sample space S is a set of all possible outcomes of an experiment. An element of
the sample space is called a sample point. A subset of the sample space is called an
event.
NOTE: The sample space S, which is the set of all outcomes, is analogous to the
universal set U, which is the set of all elements under consideration. An event is
analogous to a subset of the universal set.
For Visualization:

Venn Diagram
Tree Diagram

Example #1
Consider an experiment of tossing a fair coin.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.

Define the sample space.

S={H,T}
Give an example of a sample point.
H
Give an example of an event.
{H}
Draw a Venn diagram and a tree diagram for the experiment.

Example #2
Consider a spinning wheel divided into eight congruent parts. The sectors are
number 1 to 8. Assume that the arrow points randomly to a sector, and not on any
boundary line, at the end of the point.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
vi.

Describe the experiment.

Random, have equal chances
Define the sample space.
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
How many elements are there in the sample space?
8
Let E be the event that the arrow points to an even number.
Enumerate the elements of event E.
2,4,6,8
How many elements are there in event E? 4

Example #3
An experiment consists of tossing a fair coin once followed by rolling a six-sided die.
i.

ii.
iii.

Construct a tree diagram to enumerate all possible outcomes of this

experiment.
Heads
Tails
/\\
/\\
12
1,2
What is the sample space? {(H,1),(H,2)(T,1)(T,6)}
How many elements are there in the sample space? 12

EVENTS
Event

A subset of a sample space that consists of one or more sample points

//Types of Events
A simple event or elementary event is a subset of the sample space with one
and only one sample point. A compound event or composite event is a subset of
the sample space with two or more sample points.
CERTAIN AND NULL EVENTS
// A certain event or sure event is an event which is certain to happen.
A null event, also called an empty event or impossible event, is an event that is
impossible to happen. It is denoted by null O/.

Certain Event:
o Getting either a Head or a Tail from a single toss of a (fair) coin
Impossible Event

EVENT OPERATION: UNION

Union of Events
The union of events A and B, denoted by A U B, is the event containing
sample points that belong to either A, B, or to both.
A U B = {x|x is a sample point in A, B, or both)
EVENT OPERATION: INTERSECTION
Intersection of Events
The intersection of events A and B, denoted by A inverted U B, is the event
containing the sample points common to both A and B.
EVENT OPERATION: COMPLIMENT
kabaliktaran
Example #4

Let E be the event of getting two heads, E={HH}, when a coin is tossed twice.
What is the complement of event E? {T,T} {H,T} {T,H} (?)
Example #5
Suppose that a six-sided dice is rolled once. Let A be the event of getting an even
number and B be the event of getting a multiple of 3.
i.
ii.

Enumerate the elements in event A and in event B.

Find the union of events A and B. 2,4,3,9

Example #6
Suppose that a six-sided dice is rolled once. Let A be the event of getting an event
number, B be the event of getting a multiple of 3, C be the event of getting a
number greater than 3, and D be the event of obtaining an odd number. Find each
of the ff:
i.
ii.
iii.

A intersection B
A intersection C 4,6
A intersection D null

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS

Mutally Exclusive Events
Two events A and B are mutually exclusive or disjoint if events A and B have
no common sample points, that is A intersection B = null.
PROBABILITY
A measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur.
Properties of Probability
1. The probability of an event E always lies in the range 0 to 1, that is,
0<=P(E)<=1
2. The probability of a sample space is equal to 1, that is,
P(S) = 1
3. The probability of the union of mutually exclusive events is iequal to the sum
of the individual probability of each event. In symbols, let events E, be
mutually exclusive such that
E = E1 UNION E2 UNION ..3
Then
P(E) = P(E1 union E2 union..)
ASSIGNING PROBABILITIES

A Priori
A Posteriori
Subjective

LINKING A PRIORI AND APOSTERIORI APPROACHES

Notes
Probabilities calculated using the relative frequency approach are
approximations of the true probability.
If a n experiment is done repeatedly a large number of times(that is, number
of trials increases without bound), the approximate probability of an event
using the relative frequencies will approach the actual probability of the
event.
Pop up: LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
Example #10
If a card is drawn randomly from a deck of 52 cards, what is the probability that
i.
ii.
iii.

It is from the heart suit? 13 out of 52

It is a queen?
4 out of 52
The number on the card is greater than 2 but less than 9? 24 out of 52

Example #11
If 5 cards are drawn from a deck of 52 cards at random, what is the probabily that
i.
ii.

All the cards are black?

(26C5)(26C0)/(52C5)
Three of the cards are aces?
(4C3)(48C2)/(52C5)

Example #12
At the school fair, you are asked to choose six numbers from 1 to 55 for a raffle that
will held in the evening. You with the jackpot prize if you select six numbers that
match the six winning numbers drawn from a box regardless of the order. What is
you chance of winning/
RULES OF PROBABILITY
Addition Rule:
Addition (or Additive) Rule of Probability
If A and B are any two events in S, then the probability that either A or B or
both will happen is
P(A union B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A intersect B)
Special Addition Rule for Mutually Exlusive Events
If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then P(A union B) = P(A) + P(B).
Probability Rule for Complement Events
If A and A are complementary events, then P(A) = 1-P(A).

Example #13
If a pair of six-sided dice is rolled, what is the probability that the same number of
dots or a double, or a sum of six will be obtained?
{11,22,33,44,55,66} = 1/6
{15,24,33,42,51} = 5/36
Example #14
A bowl contatins 25 red balls, 20 green balls, and 5 white balls. If Kay picks one of
these balls at random, what is the probability that ball is red or green.
90
Example #16
Suppose that the probability that Kaye will get a grade of A, B, C, D for conduct in
school is 0.43