WiMAX and Broadband Wireless

www.maravedis-bwa.
com
www.maravedis-bwa.com
665 Guy Suite 6
Montreal, QC, Canada H3J 2V5
Tel: (305) 865-1006

(786) 347-5580
Fax: (514) 313-5465
afellah@maravedis-bwa.com
WiMAX and Broadband Wireless

(Sub-11GHz) Worldwide Market Analysis
and Trends 2006-2012
September 2006 (4th Edition)
Authors: Adlane Fellah & Robert Syputa

Research Assistant: Cintia Garza
Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 1

Copyright ©September 2006

Maravedis Inc
All data contained in this report is proprietary to Maravedis Inc and may not be
distributed in either original or reproduced form to anyone outside the client’s internal
organization within five years of the report date without prior permission of Maravedis
Inc. The material contained herein is for individual use of the purchasing Licensee and
may not be distributed to any other person or entity by such Licensee including, without
limitation, to persons with the same corporate or other entity as such Licensee, without
the express written permission of Licensor.
Maravedis Inc makes no warranties express or implied as to the results to be obtained

from use of this report and make no warranties express or implied of merchantability or
fitness for a particular purpose. Maravedis Inc shall have no liability to the recipient of
this report to any third party for any indirect, incidental, special or consequential
damages arising out of use of this report.
Maravedis return Policy:
Downloaded or sent reports in any format are not refundable, nor credited under any
circumstances. It is the responsibility of the sole buyer to verify through the Table of
Contents and the Executive Summary that the report fits its information needs.

Scope of the Study
The present study will provide guidance on the following main topics:
WIMAX/BWA Spectrum:
• Licensing Information: Who are the most active service providers holding
BWA/WIMAX spectrum?
• Regulation: What are the regulatory trends for BWA/WIMAX in each region?
What services can be deployed?
• Spectrum: What are the characteristics of spectrum allocated for BWA/WiMAX?
Service Providers Perspective:
• What are the most critical expectations of service providers about future WiMAX
equipment?
• What are the service provider views on mobility?
• What are the BWA service revenues in each region?
• 17 Selected Operators Case Studies
• Brazil, Russia, India and China Market analysis
• Analysis of municipal and emerging markets
Sub-11GHz BWA/WiMAX Market:
• Broadband Wireless Technologies roadmap and performance compared

• BWA/WiMAX Market Drivers & Challenges Ahead
• WiMAX vs. Proprietary systems SWOT Analysis
• Fixed/Portable Wireless History and Market Sizes 1999-2005
• Analysis of 802.16-2004 roadmap and characteristics 2006-2008
• Analysis of 802.16-2005 roadmap and characteristics 2007-2010
• Equipment & Service Market Size Forecasts 2006-2012
• Detailed technology and market analysis for mobility
• Detailed Review of 47 system and Infrastructure Suppliers
• Detailed analysis of IPR
802.16 Chipsets:
• Detailed Review of 802.16 chipset and RF makers

• Roadmap of 802.16 chipset market
• Market drivers for 802.016 chipsets
• 802.16 Chipset Market Size Forecasts for 2006-2012
• WiMAX chipset BOM and ASP evolution 2006-2012

What is new in this 4th edition report?
All the information contained in this report has been been updated and scrutinized
thoroughly for relevance.However the following new special information has been added
to add value to the report and provide more in-depth analysis:
We have added a comprehensive municipal wireless section
We have introduced a section on multimode and wireless technologies compared
We have added a section that details key expected regulatory changes for 2006-
2008 by region
We have added market size forecasts and summary analysis for the strategic
emerging BRIC countries (Brazil Russia, China, India)
We have introduced an in-depth analysis on Intellectual Property Rights
We have added an analysis on RF component suppliers
We have added 50% more service provider profiles
We have introduced pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for the forecasts.
We have added 4.9GHz in the frequency breakdown

About the Team:
Adlane Fellah, MBA, is CEO and founder of Maravedis In a world-leader in market

research and analysis, specializing in WiMAX and broadband wireless markets. He is
leading industry analyst who authored various landmark reports on WiMAX, broadband
wireless and Voice over IP. He is a frequent speaker at leading wireless events and a
contributor to various prestigious portals and magazines covering the broadband
wireless industry including: Telephony Magazine, WiMAX Trends, WiMAX.com, etc.. He
is member of the Program Advisory Board for the World WiMAX conference since 2004
and a member of the Word Communications Association International , and Broadband
Wireless Association. Prior to founding Maravedis, he held various positions at Harris
Corporation in charge of market intelligence and business development for several
product lines.
Robert Syputa, BSEE, MBA, has over 26 years experience in the broad field of
electronics and six years experience as a telecommunications industry analyst and
consultant, particularly in the merging fields of WBB and related technologies and
businesses. Background experience includes technical sales at Fairchild Semiconductor
and sales management at Philips. Robert ran TEAM Associates, an independent
manufacturer's representative firm who's clients included Honeywell and GE-Druck.
Several years ago he developed an interest in emerging wireless communications fields
including cellular and 802.11/802.16 standards for WLAN and WMAN systems. He
developed a broad understanding from bottom's up analysis of the technologies,
companies and business trends shaping the developed and emerging sectors of the
converging industry. He has consulted with both startup wireless companies and
leaders in the merging WiMAX/WMAN field and with private investment groups and
large telecommunications industry hedge funds on products, business strategies,
company image and market positioning, and emerging or slated to emerge industry
trends and catalysts. Mr. Syputa obtained a Bachelors of Electrical Engineering from
Southern Polytechnic State University and a Masters of Business Administration from
Seattle University.
Cintia Garza, Market Analyst obtained a Bachelor degree of International Commerce

from TEC de Monterrey, Mexico with a specialization in International Business from
HEC Montreal and Carleton University, Ottawa. She focuses in market research for
BWA/WiMAX applications. She has recently completed with Maravedis a database with
information of telecom service providers and regulators worldwide. She speaks fluently
English, French and Spanish and is based in Mexico.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................. 22
1 BROADBAND WIRELESS EMERGES AT CENTER STAGE .................................. 32

1.1 CONTEXT FOR FIXED-MOBILE CONVERGENCE .......................................................... 32
1.2 COST PER BIT DELIVERED OVER THE AIR ................................................................. 39
1.3 DIAL-UP USERS: A RACE IN EXTINCTION ................................................................... 41
1.4 CHEAPER BANDWIDTH THAN EVER ........................................................................... 45
1.5 REGIONAL MOBILE AND BROADBAND TRENDS ........................................................... 48
1.5.1 Europe.......................................................................................................................................................49
1.5.2 North America...........................................................................................................................................57
1.5.3 Asia/Pacific ...............................................................................................................................................60
1.5.4 CALA.........................................................................................................................................................61
1.5.5 Middle East ...............................................................................................................................................61
1.5.6 Africa.........................................................................................................................................................63
1.6 RESIDENTIAL APPLICATIONS: TOWARDS TRIPLE PLAY ............................................... 65
1.7 BUSINESS APPLICATIONS ........................................................................................ 66
1.8 GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC ENTITIES ........................................................................ 69
1.9 ON THE ROAD TO PERSONAL MOBILE BROADBAND ................................................... 72
1.9.1 Broadband is Creating New Revenue Streams..........................................................................................73
1.9.2 Mobile Gaming .........................................................................................................................................77
1.9.3 Messaging .................................................................................................................................................77
1.9.4 Mobile Music.............................................................................................................................................78
1.9.5 IPTV ..........................................................................................................................................................79
1.9.6 Mobile TV and Video ................................................................................................................................81
1.10 VOIP................................................................................................................... 83
1.11 BACKHAUL APPLICATIONS ..................................................................................... 84
2 BROADBAND WIRELESS TECHNOLOGIES COMPARED..................................... 88
2.1 WHAT IS NEEDED FOR THE NEXT GENERATION WIRELESS (MOBILE) NETWORK?......... 88
2.2 WIMAX MEASURES UP TODAY ............................................................................... 89
2.3 NEEDS DRIVE THE SHIFT TO MAS/MIMO-OFDMA................................................... 93
2.4 COMPARING WIMAX AS LINK IMPROVEMENT OVER 3GPP HSDPA IS ONLY HALF THE
STORY ........................................................................................................................ 94
2.5 WIMAX - READY TO SHIFT THE PLAYING FIELD ........................................................ 97
2.6 WIMAX: ADAPTIVE MODULATION + MAS/MIMO - AAS + MMR = GEOMETRIC INCREASE
IN NETWORK PERFORMANCE ......................................................................................... 97
2.7 INSIDE THE WIMAX FORUM .................................................................................. 101
2.7.1 Working Group Organization and Charters ...........................................................................................102
2.7.2 How the Working Groups Function and Interface ..................................................................................111
2.7.3 No Field of Dreams.................................................................................................................................113
2.7.4 The Overall Climate of Development......................................................................................................114
3 IPR PRACTICES & IEEE 802.16 WIMAX PATENT ANALYSIS ............................. 115
3.1 WHY RESEARCH AND ANALYZE WIMAX, NGMN IP? .............................................. 117
3.1.1 IPR Portfolio Practices and Analysis......................................................................................................118
3.1.2 What Do Service Providers and Suppliers Want of IPR? .......................................................................118
3.1.3 What Do Suppliers Want of IPR?............................................................................................................119
3.1.4 What Do WiMAX IPR licensors Want?...................................................................................................119

3.2 INFLUENCE OF STANDARDS AND PRACTICE ............................................................. 120

3.3 THE LONG GESTATION PERIOD FOR OFDM WIRELESS BROADBAND ........................ 122
3.4 IS IPR A QUAGMIRE OR AN IMPETUS TO BENEFICIAL CREATIVITY? ............................ 124
3.4.1 Patent Litigation is on the Rise ...............................................................................................................125
3.5 FINDING THE WAY OUT OF THE QUAGMIRE ............................................................. 127
3.6 ALTERNATIVES FOR IPR RECOGNITION AND DISPUTE RESOLUTION .......................... 128
3.6.1 Differences Between large and Small Enterprises ..................................................................................128
3.6.2 Mutual Insurance ....................................................................................................................................129
3.6.2.1 The Advantages of Mutual Insurance Associations .............................. 129
3.6.3 Arbitration and Mediation ......................................................................................................................129
3.6.4 Patent Portfolio Pools.............................................................................................................................130
3.6.5 Collaboration With Trade Authorities ....................................................................................................131
3.7 MARAVEDIS’ UPCOMING IPR REPORT .................................................................... 131
4 CURRENT BWA MARKET GENERAL ANALYSIS: 1999-2006 ............................. 133
4.1 BWA SUBSCRIBERS DURING 1999-2005 ............................................................... 133
4.2 BWA SERVICE REVENUE IN 2005.......................................................................... 134
4.3 EQUIPMENT MARKET SIZES: 1999-2005 ................................................................ 137
4.4 SOLUTION VENDORS ANALYSIS ............................................................................. 149
4.5 STATUS OF CERTIFICATION ................................................................................... 158
4.6 CHIPSET VENDOR ANALYSIS ................................................................................. 162
5 BWA/WIMAX SPECTRUM AND LICENSING ANALYSIS BY REGION ................. 169
5.1 NORTH AMERICA .................................................................................................. 169
5.1.1 USA .........................................................................................................................................................169
5.1.1.1 WCS ..................................................................................................... 169
5.1.1.2 BRS and EBS ....................................................................................... 172
5.1.1.3 AWS ..................................................................................................... 174
5.1.1.4 The 3.65 GHz Band .............................................................................. 183
5.1.1.5 The 700 MHz Band............................................................................... 184
5.1.2 Canada....................................................................................................................................................187
5.2 EUROPE .............................................................................................................. 188
5.2.1 The 3.4-3.8 GHz Band.............................................................................................................................189
5.2.2 The 2.5-2.69 GHz Band...........................................................................................................................190
5.3 ASIA PACIFIC ....................................................................................................... 193
5.4 CARIBBEAN AND LATIN AMERICA ........................................................................... 195
5.5 AFRICA ................................................................................................................ 196
5.6 MIDDLE EAST ....................................................................................................... 199
5.7 ONGOING SPECTRUM ALLOCATIONS WORLDWIDE ................................................... 201
5.8 REGULATORY WORKING GROUP ACTIVITY .............................................................. 210
5.9 CHALLENGES AHEAD: SPECTRUM AVAILABILITY ....................................................... 215
6 SERVICE PROVIDERS ........................................................................................... 217
6.1 SERVICE PROVIDERS’ CHALLENGES AND EXPECTATIONS REGARDING FIXED WIMAX 217
6.2 SERVICE PROVIDERS’ CHALLENGES AND EXPECTATIONS FOR MOBILE WIMAX ......... 222
6.3 CASE STUDIES ..................................................................................................... 227
6.3.1 Greenfield Operators ..............................................................................................................................227
6.3.1.1 Unwired Australia ................................................................................. 227
6.3.1.2 Altitude Telecom (France) .................................................................... 236

6.3.1.3 WiMAX Telecom ................................................................................... 240

6.3.1.4 Axtel (Mexico)....................................................................................... 245
6.3.1.5 Iberbanda (Spain) ................................................................................. 251
6.3.1.6 NextWave (USA) .................................................................................. 253
6.3.1.7 Clearwire (USA).................................................................................... 259
6.3.1.8 Orbitel (Colombia) ................................................................................ 267
6.3.1.9 TowerStream (USA) ............................................................................. 271
6.3.1.10 Yozan (Japan) .................................................................................... 274
6.3.2 Established and Mobile Operators..........................................................................................................283
6.3.2.1 Sprint/Nextel ......................................................................................... 283
6.3.2.2 SK Telecom .......................................................................................... 290
6.3.2.3 Entel Chile ............................................................................................ 295
6.3.2.4 KDDI ..................................................................................................... 301
6.3.2.5 Softbank ............................................................................................... 308
6.3.2.6 AT&T .................................................................................................... 314
6.3.2.7 BellSouth .............................................................................................. 321
6.3.2.8 Other Notable Deployments ................................................................. 328
7 BRIC AND KOREA ANALYSIS............................................................................... 329
7.1 BRAZIL ................................................................................................................ 329
7.1.1 Market Overview.....................................................................................................................................329
7.1.2 Regulatory Overview...............................................................................................................................330
7.1.3 Market Forecasts ....................................................................................................................................334
7.2 RUSSIA ................................................................................................................ 337
7.2.1 Market Overview.....................................................................................................................................337
7.3 INDIA ................................................................................................................... 344
7.3.1 Market Overview.....................................................................................................................................344
7.4 CHINA ................................................................................................................. 349
7.4.1 Market Overview.....................................................................................................................................349
7.5 KOREA ................................................................................................................ 363
7.5.1 Current Status of WiBro..........................................................................................................................363
7.5.2 KT WiBro Plans ......................................................................................................................................367
7.5.3 SK Telecom .............................................................................................................................................368
8 MUNICIPAL WIRELESS BROADBAND MARKET TRENDS AND STRATEGIES. 371
8.1 CURRENT TRENDS IN SYSTEM ADOPTION ............................................................... 373
8.1.1 Contract Trends ......................................................................................................................................373
8.1.2 Ongoing Trend Gains Momentum...........................................................................................................373
8.1.3 Emerging Trends that Enable Rapid Adoption .......................................................................................374
8.2 REASONS FOR GOVERNMENT PARTICIPATION IN WIRELESS BROADBAND .................. 374
8.2.1 Technology, Low-Cost Equipment and Active Supplier Market..............................................................375
8.2.2 Government Mandate to the Underserved ..............................................................................................375
8.2.3 The FCC and Other Regulators Open the Doors....................................................................................376
8.2.4 Local and State Government Goldmine ..................................................................................................376
8.2.5 Homeland Defense, Redundancy and Interoperable Public Safety.........................................................379

8.3 SYSTEMS TO DEPLOY MUNICIPAL BROADBAND NETWORKS ARE PLENTIFUL .............. 379
8.4 TYPES OF EQUIPMENT AVAILABLE OR PLANNED ...................................................... 384
8.5 GOVERNMENT RESTRICTIONS AND CONTROL .......................................................... 387
8.6 TRENDS FAVORABLE TO ADOPTION OF GOVERNMENT-SPONSORED METRO AREA
WIRELESS BROADBAND NETWORKS ............................................................................ 391
8.6.1 Differences among Rural, Suburban and Urban Municipal Markets .....................................................391
8.6.2 Degree of Municipal Ownership and Participation ................................................................................392
8.6.3 Conflicts with Incumbent Providers ........................................................................................................392
8.6.4 EarthLink Reshapes Large Metro Market...............................................................................................393
8.6.5 EarthLink Leverages through Open Access Partnering..........................................................................394
8.6.6 The Next Generation Wireless Network “Municipal Land Grab”..........................................................395
8.7 EVOLUTION OF THE MUNICIPAL WIRELESS MARKET ................................................. 396
8.7.1 Municipal Wireless Broadband: Flexible BB Service at Reasonable Cost .............................................397
8.7.2 Where the Gravy may be Found..............................................................................................................398
8.7.3 Extension of Core Network to Additional Services .................................................................................400
8.7.3.1 Meter Reading ...................................................................................... 400
8.7.3.2 Traffic Monitoring and Control .............................................................. 401
8.7.4 VPNs .......................................................................................................................................................401
8.7.5 Emergency Communications...................................................................................................................401
8.7.6 Commercial PTP and Dedicated Campus Networks...............................................................................401
8.8 LEADING COMPANIES ............................................................................................ 401
8.9 COMMUNITY WIRELESS PROJECTS ........................................................................ 402
8.10 ADDITIONAL RESOURCES .................................................................................... 405
8.11 COMMUNITY WIRELESS NETWORKS OR FREE NETS .............................................. 405
8.12 RECOMMENDED POLICIES TO ENCOURAGE AND EXPEDITE BROADBAND ACCESS ..... 405
9 MULTIMODE PUSHES WIMAX ONTO 4G NGMN FRONT BURNER .................... 407
9.1 EMBRACE AND EXTEND...AND LEARN FROM RECENT HISTORY ................................ 407
9.2 WIMAX MULTIMODE WILL HIT BEFORE 3G-LTE NGMN IS OUT OF THE STARTING GATE409
9.3 BASE STATION AND NETWORKING STANDARDS HASTEN NGMN & MM..................... 409
9.4 A DISRUPTIVE BUSINESS CASE SCENARIO ............................................................. 411
9.5 WHO AMONG INCUMBENTS WILL FOLLOW SPRINT’S LEAD? ..................................... 411
9.6 HOW WILL MULTIMODE EFFECT WIMAX COMPANIES?............................................ 414
9.6.1 How Multimode Affects WiMAX Chip Suppliers.....................................................................................414
9.6.2 How Multimode Affects WiMAX Equipment Suppliers ...........................................................................417
10 MARKET FORECASTS FOR 2006-2012 .............................................................. 419
10.1 ON THE SAME PATH AS WIFI? .............................................................................. 419
10.2 BWA MARKET FORECASTS ................................................................................. 425
10.2.1 BWA and WiMAX Subscriber Forecasts- Base Line Scenario..............................................................425
10.2.2 BWA Market Forecasts: Units, ASP and Market SIzes in Dollars – Baseline Scenario .......................426
10.2.3 BWA Forecasts by Region and Strategic Country ................................................................................432
10.2.4 BWA Forecast by Frequency.................................................................................................................435
10.2.5 BWA Cross Forecasts by Frequency by Region....................................................................................436
10.3 WILL THERE BE A MARKET FOR 802.16-2004D? ................................................... 437
10.4 802.16-2005 FORECASTS: THE 4G HOLY GRAIL .................................................. 444
10.5 PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO ...................................................................................... 452
10.6 OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO ........................................................................................ 454

CONTENTS OF APPENDIX
BWA/WIMAX SYSTEM VENDORS......................................................................4
1. Adaptix..............................................................................................................4
2. Airspan Networks..............................................................................................9
3. Alvarion Ltd. ....................................................................................................24
4. Aperto .............................................................................................................37
5. ArrayComm Inc ...............................................................................................43
6. ARRIS.............................................................................................................49
7. Axxcelera (formerly Adaptive Broadband) ......................................................55
8. Azonic Systems ..............................................................................................61
9. BelAir Networks ..............................................................................................64
10. Cambridge Broadband..................................................................................71
11. Hopling..........................................................................................................77
12. Infinet Wireless .............................................................................................81
13. IP Wireless....................................................................................................89
14. L3 Communications (Iospan) ........................................................................97
15. Navini Networks ..........................................................................................100
16. Nex-G Systems...........................................................................................109
17. NextNet Wireless (Motorola) .......................................................................112
18. PosData ......................................................................................................117
19. Proxim Corporation .....................................................................................124
20. Redline Communications ............................................................................133
21. SkyPilot Networks .......................................................................................141
22. SOMA Networks .........................................................................................147
23. SR Telecom ................................................................................................154
24. Telsima Corporation....................................................................................164
25. VCom..........................................................................................................168
26. Vyyo............................................................................................................174
27. Wave Wireless (Waverider) ........................................................................181
28. Wi-LAN .......................................................................................................186
29. WiNetworks.................................................................................................195
INFRASTRUCTURE SUPPLIERS....................................................................199
30. Alcatel Mobile Group - Lucent.....................................................................199

31. Ericsson-Marconi ........................................................................................209
32. Huawei Technologies Co. Ltd .....................................................................214
33. Motorola Moto .............................................................................................219
34. Nokia...........................................................................................................229
35. Nortel Networks ..........................................................................................231
36. Qualcomm-Flarion ......................................................................................239
37. Samsung Electronics Company, Ltd. ..........................................................254

38. Siemens Networks ......................................................................................263
39. ZTE-ZiMAX .................................................................................................274
CHIPSET VENDORS........................................................................................280
40. Beceem.......................................................................................................280
41. Comsys .......................................................................................................284
42. Cygnus Multimedia Communications Inc ....................................................287
43. Freescale Semiconductor ...........................................................................288
44. Fujitsu Microelectronics America (FMA) .....................................................293
45. Intel Corporation .........................................................................................298
46. PicoChip .....................................................................................................309
47. Runcom ......................................................................................................314
48. Sequans......................................................................................................315
49. TeleCIS.......................................................................................................322
50. Texas Instruments (TI)................................................................................326
51. Wavesat Wireless Inc .................................................................................330

LIST OF EXHIBITS
Exhibit 1. Drivers for offering next generation mobile or wireless broadband .................. 37
Exhibit 2. Growth of ARPU for data services ......................................................................... 38
Exhibit 3. Comparison of download times for various high-speed services...................... 39
Exhibit 4. Cost per MB of various high-speed services........................................................ 40
Exhibit 5. Characteristics of various high-speed technologies............................................ 40
Exhibit 6. Subscribers to Internet or Broadband, 2005 ........................................................ 42
Exhibit 7. Share of broadband lines by world region ............................................................ 43
Exhibit 8. Top ten broadband countries by subscribers: 31 Mar 2005 - 31 Mar 2006 .... 44
Exhibit 9. Internet and broadband households, end of 2005 .............................................. 45
Exhibit 10. Average cost of residential bandwidth in various countries............................. 45
Exhibit 11. Characteristics of selected US telecom markets............................................... 46
Exhibit 12. Average Broadband Tariffs (in USD at PPP rate) ............................................. 47
Exhibit 13. Average rentals for entry level services across different regions ................... 48
Exhibit 14. Broadband subscriber growth comparison......................................................... 49
Exhibit 15. PC penetration in selected European countries ................................................ 50
Exhibit 16. Internet usage in selected European countries ................................................. 51
Exhibit 17. Broadband Internet penetration in selected European countries ................... 51
Exhibit 18. Individuals’ use of computers and Internet (2004), EU-25 (as percentage of
total number of individuals aged 16 to 74) ..................................................................... 52
Exhibit 19. Relationship between broadband penetration and income per capita........... 53
Exhibit 20. Broadband use by European households and businesses ............................. 54
Exhibit 21. Internet access among European enterprises (in %) ....................................... 55
Exhibit 22. Internet access and broadband connections among European enterprises by
size ....................................................................................................................................... 56
Exhibit 23. Advanced services lines (over 200 kb/s in both directions)............................. 58
Exhibit 24. Residential broadband additions in the US by access technology................. 58
Exhibit 25. Broadband households in the US by access technology................................. 59
Exhibit 26. Growth Rate of Home Broadband Adoption in the US by income 2006........ 59
Exhibit 27. Growth of Internet users in the US by access technology............................... 60
Exhibit 28. Top 10 countries in Africa, ranked by Internet users ........................................ 63
Exhibit 29. Snapshot of US triple play markets ..................................................................... 65
Exhibit 30. Number of small and medium businesses by region, 2003-2008 .................. 67
Exhibit 31. Mobile phone subscribers worldwide .................................................................. 72
Exhibit 32. Worldwide consumer broadband revenue, by service type............................. 74
Exhibit 33. Features used by US mobile subscribers, February 2006 .............................. 76
Exhibit 34. Features used by mobile subscribers in the UK and Germany ...................... 76
Exhibit 35. Features used by US mobile subscribers, November 2005 ............................ 77
Exhibit 36. Global mobile music revenues, 2005 and 2010 (US$ millions) ...................... 78
Exhibit 37. Worldwide revenue for mobile music .................................................................. 79
Exhibit 38. IPTV subscribers in Western Europe .................................................................. 80
Exhibit 39. US mobile subscribers interested in mobile video ............................................ 82
Exhibit 40. US mobile video revenue ...................................................................................... 82
Exhibit 41. Residential VoIP subscribers in the US .............................................................. 84

Exhibit 42. Select US residential VoIP plans ......................................................................... 84

Exhibit 43. Spectral efficiency comparison ............................................................................ 90
Exhibit 44. Sector throughput comparison ............................................................................. 91
Exhibit 45. Increase in efficiency of wireless spectrum........................................................ 92
Exhibit 46. Wireless link evolution ........................................................................................... 93
Exhibit 47. Illustration of adaptive modulation ....................................................................... 94
Exhibit 48. Network efficiency of various modulation schemes .......................................... 95
Exhibit 49. Wireless network architecture evolution ............................................................. 96
Exhibit 50. Network topology for mobile multi-hop relay...................................................... 98
Exhibit 51. Throughput by system load .................................................................................. 99
Exhibit 52. Cost per bandwidth for various services........................................................... 101
Exhibit 53. WiMAX Forum working group structure............................................................ 102
Exhibit 54. WiMAX Working Groups ..................................................................................... 111
Exhibit 55. OFDM patent portfolio per applicant ................................................................. 124
Exhibit 56. Patent lawsuits by year........................................................................................ 126
Exhibit 57. Patent applications by year................................................................................. 127
Exhibit 58. BWA subscribers by region ................................................................................ 134
Exhibit 59. Current BWA pricing plans, worldwide.............................................................. 136
Exhibit 60. BWA service revenue by region......................................................................... 137
Exhibit 61. BWA CPE Shipments in units 1999-2005 (Backhaul & Access) .................. 138
Exhibit 62. Historical BWA Base Station in units 1999-2005 (Access & Backhaul
combined).......................................................................................................................... 138
Exhibit 63. CPE Average Selling Price Evolution 1999-2005 ........................................... 139
Exhibit 64. Base Station Average Selling Price Evolution 1999-2005 ............................. 139
Exhibit 65. CPE Market Sizes in ($) for < 11GHz in 1999-2005 (Access & Backhaul
combined).......................................................................................................................... 140
Exhibit 66. Base Station Market Sizes in ($) for < 11 GHz in 1999-2005 (Access &
Backhaul combined) ........................................................................................................ 140
Exhibit 67. Total Equipment Market Sizes in ($) for < 11 GHz in 1999-2005 (Access &
Exhibit 68. Total BWA Equipment Market Sizes Breakdown (in US$) for < 11 GHz in
2005.................................................................................................................................... 142
Exhibit 69. 2004 Equipment Market Breakdown by Frequency (Access & Backhaul
combined).......................................................................................................................... 142
Exhibit 70. 2005 Equipment Market Breakdown by Frequency (Access & Backhaul
combined).......................................................................................................................... 143
Exhibit 71. 2004 and 2005 Equipment Market Breakdown by Region (Access &
Exhibit 72. 2004 and 2005 Equipment Market Breakdown by Market Segment (Access
& Backhaul combined) .................................................................................................... 145
Exhibit 73. 2004 and 2005 Equipment Market Breakdown by Application ..................... 146
Exhibit 74. 2004 and 2005 market breakdown by CPE-type solution.............................. 147
Exhibit 75. 2005 Equipment Market Breakdown by Modulation (Access & Backhaul
combined).......................................................................................................................... 148
Exhibit 76. 2005 Equipment Market Breakdown for standard based vs proprietary
(Access & Backhaul combined) ..................................................................................... 148

Exhibit 77. 2005 Equipment Market Breakdown for Business and Residetial/SOHO
users................................................................................................................................... 149
Exhibit 78. BWA public equipment providers’ cash positions as of Q2 2006 ................. 150
Exhibit 79. Market Share per Vendor Access & backhaul combined for all frequencies <
11 GHz in 2004 and 2005 ............................................................................................... 151
Exhibit 80. BWA Market Share per Vendor for all frequencies < 11 GHz in 2004 and
2005 when including narrowband products for both access and backhaul ............ 152
Exhibit 81. Market Share per Vendor for the Access market < 11 GHz in 2005............ 153
Exhibit 82. Market Share per Vendor for the Backhaul market < 11 GHz in 2005 ........ 153
Exhibit 83. BWA market share per vendor by region < 11 GHz in 2005 ......................... 154
Exhibit 84. BWA Market Share per Vendor By Physical Layer < 11 GHz in 2005 ........ 155
Exhibit 85. BWA Market Share per Vendor By frequency < 11 GHz in 2005................. 155
Exhibit 86. BWA Market Share per Vendor for indoor and outdoor units in 2005 ......... 156
Exhibit 87. 2006 Expected Market Share Breakdown by Vendor (Cpmbined access &
backhaul) ........................................................................................................................... 156
Exhibit 88. Expected 2006 WiMAX certified Equipment Market Share Breakdown ...... 157
Exhibit 89. OEM/Vendors Strategic Relationships.............................................................. 158
Exhibit 90. Official profiles for both 802.16-2004 and 2005 .............................................. 160
Exhibit 91. Certified products as of August 2006 ................................................................ 160
Exhibit 92. Certifiication roadmap for 802.16-2004 by vendor.......................................... 161
Exhibit 93. Certifiication roadmap for 802.16-2005 by vendor.......................................... 162
Exhibit 94. Investment in WiMAX chipset startups ............................................................. 165
Exhibit 95. Current 802.16-2004 Customer wins and relationships for each SOC
supplier............................................................................................................................... 167
Exhibit 96. Current 802.16-2005 Customer wins and relationships for each SOC
supplier............................................................................................................................... 168
Exhibit 97. Map of REAGs and their constituent MEAs ..................................................... 170
Exhibit 98. WCS Service Areas ............................................................................................. 171
Exhibit 99. Top BRS/WCS license holders .......................................................................... 173
Exhibit 100. Licenses to be awarded for AWS-1................................................................. 175
Exhibit 101. Cellular Market Areas ........................................................................................ 176
Exhibit 102. FCC Economic Areas ........................................................................................ 177
Exhibit 103. FCC Regional Economic Area Groupings...................................................... 178
Exhibit 104. Top 10 Highest AWS bidders by the end of Round 30 ................................ 180
Exhibit 105. AWS Auction Sumamry at the end of Round 30........................................... 182
Exhibit 106. WiMAX and 802.16-eligible bands in Europe ................................................ 189
Exhibit 107. CEPT 2.5-2.69 GHz band plan ........................................................................ 190
Exhibit 108. 2.3-2.4 GHz band plan in Korea ...................................................................... 194
Exhibit 109. Japan’s 2.5-2.69 MHz band plan..................................................................... 194
Exhibit 110. Africa BWA/WiMAX allocations........................................................................ 197
Exhibit 111. Middle East BWA/WiMAX allocations ............................................................. 197
Exhibit 112. Conditions of frequency allocations ................................................................ 202
Exhibit 113. Conditions of frequency allocations – geographic coverage....................... 203
Exhibit 114. Results of France’s Beauty Contest– WiMAX by sucessful candidates.... 204
Exhibit 115. Results of France Beauty Contest– Wimax by Region ................................ 205
Exhibit 116. Romanian PMP national licenses in 3,5 GHz frequency band ................... 207

Exhibit 117. Structure of ITU .................................................................................................. 211

Exhibit 118. Recent and ongoing consultations worldwide ............................................... 212
Exhibit 119. Current European 470-870 MHz frequency allocation ................................. 214
Exhibit 120. Distribution of the pairs of 1.75 MHz blocks in the 3.5 GHz band in Brazil
............................................................................................................................................. 331
Exhibit 121. ANATEL Telco Regions .................................................................................... 332
Exhibit 122. Area of Brazil covered by 3.5 GHz licenses .................................................. 332
Exhibit 123. Annual Brazilian BWA/WiMAX Equipment Market Forecasts 2005-2010 (in
$) ......................................................................................................................................... 335
Exhibit 124. Brazil BWA and WiMAX Subscribers Forecasts 2005-2010....................... 336
Exhibit 125. Major Russian telecom firms ............................................................................ 339
Exhibit 126. Russian BWA/WiMAX operators at 3.5 MHz band....................................... 343
Exhibit 127. Annual equipment sales forecast for BWA versus WiMAX, in the Russian
Federation ......................................................................................................................... 344
Exhibit 128. Current telecom market structure in India ...................................................... 345
Exhibit 129. Trends in pricing and deployment of CPE for BWA and WiMAX ............... 349
Exhibit 130. Leading Chinese providers in the fixed telephone market .......................... 351
Exhibit 131. Leading Chinese internet service providers................................................... 352
Exhibit 132. Regulatory environment of China’s telecom frequency policy .................... 356
Exhibit 133. Allocation of 2500-6000 MHz band in China ................................................. 357
Exhibit 134. First-tender Chinese operators in the 3.5 GHz band.................................... 358
Exhibit 135. Second-tender Chinese operators in the 3.5 GHz band.............................. 359
Exhibit 136. Third-tender Chinese operators in the 3.5 GHz band .................................. 360
Exhibit 137. Summary of Chinese operator holdings in the 3.5 GHz band .................... 360
Exhibit 138. Profiles of Chinese service providers.............................................................. 362
Exhibit 139. WiBro spectrum allocation in Korea ................................................................ 363
Exhibit 140. Deployment of WiBro by Korea Telecom ....................................................... 364
Exhibit 141. Samsung’s WiMAX solution ............................................................................. 365
Exhibit 142. Various Samsung phone products .................................................................. 365
Exhibit 143. Revenue from wireless data service in South Korea, 2005 ........................ 367
Exhibit 144. WiBro devices introduced by Posdata ............................................................ 369
Exhibit 145. Broadband penetration in various countries, 2005 ....................................... 376
Exhibit 146. Cost per bandwidth efficiency of fiber versus copper................................... 377
Exhibit 147. Typical fiber installation costs .......................................................................... 378
Exhibit 148. Applications available to provide municipal wireless broadband................ 383
Exhibit 149. Licensing status of 2.4 GHz band in African countries ................................ 388
Exhibit 150. Usage of 2.4 and 5 GHz bands in African countries .................................... 389
Exhibit 151. Percentages of wireless broadband users by category ............................... 390
Exhibit 152. Considerations for municipal metro area wireless broadband networks... 391
Exhibit 153. EarthLink addresses concerns about municipal wireless broadband........ 394
Exhibit 154. Proposals for and deployments of municipal wireless broadband ............. 398
Exhibit 155. Municipal mesh Wi-Fi network architecture ................................................... 399
Exhibit 156. Typical Wi-Fi mesh network topology ............................................................. 400
Exhibit 157. Implemented and planned community wireless projects ............................. 405
Exhibit 158. Plans of suppliers of WiMAX semiconductors ............................................... 415
Exhibit 159. Chipsets Volume and Price Evolution............................................................. 420

Exhibit 160. Volume Forecasts for WiFi chipsets................................................................ 421

Exhibit 161. Market Size Forecasts for WiFi chipsets ........................................................ 421
Exhibit 162. 2008 WLAN Semiconductor Revenues in Consumer Devices by Application
(n = $611 M)...................................................................................................................... 422
Exhibit 163. Analysis of SOC Bill of Materials for the CPEs as of 2006.......................... 423
Exhibit 164. WiMAX vs WiFi ASP chipset ASP Forecasts 2006-2012 ............................ 423
Exhibit 165. WIMAX chipset volume and ASP Expectations, 2006-2012....................... 424
Exhibit 166. WIMAX chipset Revenue Expectations 2006-2012...................................... 424
Exhibit 167. Net yearly WiMAX and proprietary subscriber additions 2006-2012 ......... 425
Exhibit 168. Accumulated WiMAX and proprietary subscribers 2006-2012 ................... 425
Exhibit 169. BWA CPE Shipment Forecasts 2006-2012 in units ..................................... 429
Exhibit 170. BWA Base Station Shipment Forecasts 2006-2012 in units....................... 429
Exhibit 171. BWA CPE price decline Forecasts 2006-2012.............................................. 430
Exhibit 172. BWA Base Station price decline Forecasts 2006-2012 ............................... 431
Exhibit 173. BWA CPE Market Size Forecasts 2006-2012 in US$.................................. 431
Exhibit 174. BWA Base Station Market Size Forecasts 2006-2012 in US$ ................... 432
Exhibit 175. BWA new subscribers by strategic country 2006-2012 ............................... 432
Exhibit 176. BWA Accumulated subscribers by strategic country 2006-2012................ 433
Exhibit 177. BWA Market Evolution by Strategic Country 2006-2012............................. 433
Exhibit 178. BWA subscribers by region, 2006-2012 ......................................................... 434
Exhibit 179. BWA Market Evolution by Region 2006-2012 ............................................... 434
Exhibit 180. BWA equipment forecasts by frequency 2006-2012 .................................... 435
Exhibit 181. BWA Subscriber by Frequency for North America 2006-2012 ................... 436
Exhibit 182. BWA Subscriber by Frequency for EMEA 2006-2012 ................................. 436
Exhibit 183. BWA Subscriber by Frequency for Asia 2006-2012 ..................................... 437
Exhibit 184. BWA Subscriber by Frequency for CALA 2006-2012 .................................. 437
Exhibit 185. Total BWA Equipment Market Size Forecasts 2006-2012 in US$............. 438
Exhibit 186. Total WiMAX Equipment Market Size Forecasts 2006-2012 in US$......... 438
Exhibit 187. WiMAX market Split Evolution Forecasts 2006-2012 .................................. 439
Exhibit 188. 802.16-2004 and 2005 WiMAX subscriber yearly additions 2006-2012 ... 439
Exhibit 189. 802.16-2004 and 2005 accumulated subscribers 2006-2012..................... 440
Exhibit 190. 802.16-2004 and 2005 market size forecasts 2006-2012 ........................... 440
Exhibit 191. WiMAX Market Breakdown by Frequency band 2006-2012 ....................... 441
Exhibit 192. WiMAX Market Forecast by Frequency band 2006-2012............................ 441
Exhibit 193. WiMAX new subscriber Forecast by Frequency band 2006-2012............. 442
Exhibit 194. Equipment Market Forecast by Application 2006-2012 ............................... 442
Exhibit 195. BWA Subscriber Forecast by Subscriber type 2006-2012 .......................... 443
Exhibit 196. Service Revenue Forecast by Subscriber type 2006-2012......................... 443
Exhibit 197. 3G deployment figures ...................................................................................... 445
Exhibit 198. Penetration of mobile phone technologies in Western Europe................... 446
Exhibit 199. Mobile Technology Penetration By Country .................................................. 446
Exhibit 200. Cumulative HSDPA commerical network launches...................................... 448
Exhibit 201. Various EV-DO products................................................................................... 450
Exhibit 202. Various HSDPA products.................................................................................. 450
Exhibit 203. Preliminary PDA Vendor Shipment Estimates, 2Q06 (Units)...................... 451
Exhibit 204. WiMAX CPE Shipments by Type 2006-2012, in units ................................. 451

Exhibit 205. Forecast of CPE revenue by Type 2006-2012 in US$................................. 452

Exhibit 206. CPE Forecast – Pessimistic Scenario ............................................................ 453
Exhibit 207. Base station forecast – pessimistic scenario................................................. 453
Exhibit 208. BWA new subscriber forecast – pessimistic scenario.................................. 454
Exhibit 209. WiMAX new subscriber forecast – pessimistic scenario.............................. 454
Exhibit 210. New subscriber forecast – optimistic scenario .............................................. 455
Exhibit 211. Cumulative subscriber forecast – optimistic scenario .................................. 455
Exhibit 212. WiMAX new subscriber forecast – optimistic scenario ................................ 456
Exhibit 213. WiMAX cumulative subscriber forecast – optimistic scenario..................... 456

Executive Summary
Maravedis is proud to provide you with the 4th annual edition of our analysis of
broadband wireless worldwide trends. We have been part of this emerging industry for
almost a decade. We believe experience matters in a time where new reports on
WiMAX are published almost monthly. In this 800-page report, you will find valuable
information on many aspects of this exciting industry, to support your business and/or
investment decisions.
Fixed Market Trends
The fixed/portable broadband wireless access equipment market (sub-11 GHz) has
grown from US$562 million to US$637 million – US$755 million when including point-to-
point backhaul applications. Maravedis predicts the fixed broadband wireless market to
pass US$1 billion in 2007-2008.
The fundamentals for continued growth of broadband wireless remain sound.

Broadband is becoming a necessity for many residential and business subscribers
worldwide. The demand is exploding as the pricing of broadband services is rapidly
decreasing. There were close to 250 million broadband subscribers worldwide in the
middle of 2006, up from 130 million at the end of 2004.
More than 100 million users still access the internet with dial-up, and more than 900
million use the internet occasionally but do not subscribe to a monthly service. The
opportunity for BWA/WiMAX to serve those who want to switch to broadband service is
huge in many parts of the world where wireline technologies may not be feasible.
WiMAX – as part of a growing market for point-to-point backhaul and grid networks that
connect increasingly to localized servers and storage and for person-to-person and
group communications, entertainment and file sharing – will see rapid growth from its
current starting point. On the backhaul side, the average monthly cost of backhaul can
reach US$1500-2000 in many developing countries. Using BWA and WiMAX for
backhaul in those countries is clearly indicated.
Key Findings
• Some 1.3 million broadband CPEs and over 48,000 base station sectors were
shipped in 2005.
• In 2005, the access market reached US$635 million and the point-to-point backhaul
market reached US$117 million.
• Alvarion remains the access-market leader, with a 22.6% market share, followed by
Motorola Canopy and IP Wireless.

• EMEA, which represented 30.6% of overall 2005 broadband equipment sales,
continues to represent the largest market opportunity, but Asia and North America
will overtake it by 2007.
• Shipments of OFDM-based product already accounted for 31% of broadband

equipment sales in 2005, up from 18% in 2004. By 2012, its share will grow to 90%
with the adoption of WiMAX.
• WiMAX-certified equipment is expected to reach $140 million in 2006.
Fixed Mobile Convergence Context
The emergence of WiMAX and other broadband wireless technologies is occurring in a

context of changing business models and forces across the telecommunications world.
Both wireline and wireless operators are facing new challenges. Their attitude towards
any new technology must be looked at in the context of these growing challenges.
• Mobile operators have a hard time building new revenue streams from mobile data
services. For all their efforts, mobile operators in Europe and North America are
generating little more than US$1 or €1 per month in non-voice and non-SMS
revenues.
• Mobile operators worldwide are facing decreasing ARPUs, rising churn rates and
increasing competition from non-traditional carriers such as Skype.
• Fixed carriers continue to see reduced EBITDA margins, largely as a result of the
continued decline in their mainstay voice revenues and the increased influence of
alternative carriers offering VoIP or of online VoIP players such as Skype and
Yahoo!
• Fixed mobile convergence offers carriers new ways to improve customer satisfaction
and maximize revenue through unified services and billing. These new benefits
should translate into increased customer loyalty.
The Road to Personal Broadband
The number of mobile subscribers worldwide reached over 2 billion by the end of 2005
and is predicted to rise to 3.96 billion by 2011.
Whether it is 3G, 802.16-2005 or TD-CDMA, the success of mobile broadband will be

driven by the development of user-friendly applications and handsets. In this section,
Maravedis provides a fresh overview of the applications driving the mobile broadband
market, including mobile music, multimedia messaging, gambling and mobile TV. Highly
demanding business users will fuel the concept of personal broadband for productivity,
but the mobile consumer market will represent the lion's share of mobile data services in

the long term. End-users are no longer just consumers of media applications; they are
becoming producers of content such as photos, videos, music, and various content sent
wirelessly.
BWA/WiMAX Service Provider Trends
Must of the current deployments of BWA/WiMAX systems are still being driven by
greenfield operators in licensed bands or by WISPs that are using unlicensed bands.
Maravedis believes that 2G operators and incumbents in developing countries will
constitute an important market segment for WiMAX. We surveyed carriers to
understand their greatest expectations regarding upcoming WiMAX equipment and their
plans for the future. The results of the survey are presented in the report.
Sprint-Nextel has once again in their combined history thrown down the gauntlet for
disruptive wireless innovation. This is their boldest move yet: to jump from 3G CDMA
systems to the next generation evolutionary path of MIMO/MAS-OFDMA 4G. The
company had considered IP Wireless’ W-CDMA, Qualcomm’s FLASH OFDM, and other
proposed systems but decided on WiMAX because it is widely and openly adopted and
offers a broader framework for the evolution of wireless systems and technologies.
By pushing rapidly toward multimode capabilities,Sprint and other major operators are
establishing the nexus of momentum that ensures WiMAX’ success. This vortex will
sweep in more operators, supply chain participants and regulatory reforms as it propels
forward over the next two years.
Key Findings:
• 2.5 million subscribers worldwide had some form of fixed broadband (256+ kb/s bi-
directional) wireless access as of mid-2006.
• Total service revenues are estimated at US$3 billion in 2005, up from US$1.4 billion
in 2004.
• Lower CPE cost, ideally below US$100, remains the number one expectation for
service providers, especially in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).
• The second highest priority is for base stations to deliver more throughput and
coverage – ahead of benefits such as “interoperability” or “ease of installation.”
• Customers care about certification, standardization and economies of scale in the

medium to long term, but they want robust equipment with NLOS capabilities today.
• Operators are also anxious to see the development of rich ecosystems that
comprise handset suppliers and application developers.

• 65% of service providers interviewed prefer to wait for the 2005 version of WiMAX to
be available before investing large amounts into network build-out or expansion.
802.16-2005 is now increasingly perceived as a total solution for both fixed and
mobile applications.
Comparing WiMAX and 3G Evolution: How is WiMAX Different?
We believe that WiMAX is on two major tracks of wireless broadband evolution:
1. The commonly acknowledged one is wireless link system technology evolution. We

examine factors such as spectral efficiency and deliverable bandwidths under
various conditions.
2. Wireless network architecture evolution. This aspect of wireless evolution is

sometimes ignored because it comes after much of the arduous primary efforts to
craft standards and design and build core networks. But the multi-antenna beam
forming, space-time processing and architectural diversity work is now being
engaged at a fundamental level of system design, through the marrying of
SOFDMA’s flexible channel schema to space-time and other advanced coding
techniques. MIMO-AAS or MAS takes advantage of the power of a new generation
of signaling methods to greatly increase system capacity, range and tolerance to
interference and fading. Coupling of multiple channel signaling and signal
processing methods with multi-tiered, mesh and grid network topologies, localized
servers and cache and storage, further amplify the effect the emerging mix of
technologies will have as WiMAX evolves.
Spectrum and Regulatory Trends
Maravedis spent more than two years directly interviewing regulators in 77 countries
and continues to monitor and educate the ecosystem with the work being done around
broadband wireless regulation. This research and the construction of our detailed
database now called ClearSpectrum is by far the most thorough in the industry.
Maravedis fulfills the challenging task to contact, collect and continuously update its
database because many customers have come to depend upon this resource in
determining product development and marketing efforts.
There are many regulatory issues that Maravedis tracks and is involved with. Some are
in a constant state of evolution and reform, which affect WiMAX and other evolving
aspects of wireless. These include the lack of sufficient spectrum available for
commercial deployments in important countries like India and Russia, a level of
uncertainty on the part of regulators regarding the timeline of future spectrum
availability, and the lack of harmonized spectrum and regulation for BWA/WiMAX.

Key Findings:
• 3.5 GHz remains allocated mostly for fixed-only services in 77% of the countries
surveyed. However, the regulators are starting to revise their positions to allow
portable services in a first step towards full mobility at 3.5 GHz.
• The 2.5-2.69 GHz band is reserved for UMTS mobile services in Europe, but some
countries such as Sweden and the UK are starting to slowly revisit their position
despite fierce opposition from established mobile operators. This opportunity is
taken into account in our optimistic forecast scenario.
• Lack of spectrum allocated for WiMAX in China and India is of concern, and will
impact WiMAX adoption if not resolved by 2008
This report also provides a detailed insight of ongoing and upcoming spectrum
allocations and regulatory public consultations in many countries including India,
Germany, Brazil, Egypt, Ukraine and Taiwan. Many national regulators are in the
process of learning about WiMAX and defining what rules to put in place to best serve
their telecom environments.
BRIC and Korea Analysis
Maravedis has published special country reports detailing the opportunities and
challenges in Brazil, India and Russia in the past several months. We believe that
understanding the overall worldwide market trends requires in-depth knowledge of
those strategic emerging countries that represent half of the world’s population and
which are showing record wireless adoption in the last few years. We believe that
broadband wireless technologies and WiMAX in particular will have great success in
those markets because they are well suited to meet the growing needs of residential,
business and government users. However the lack of spectrum for WiMAX is becoming
increasingly worrying in those key countries and the battle will be fierce between 3G
and WiMAX to secure adequate frequencies. Maravedis believes that BRIC countries
will represent one third of accumulated BWA/WiMAX subscribers by 2012 if sufficient
spectrum is made available for WiMAX by 2008.
WiBro opening has not been spectacular. What was supposed to become a flagship for
Korea WiMAX technology can still be considered a pilot project! In July 2006, KT
launched commercial service in Seoul and surrounding cities where it had provided pilot
service. Both KT and SKT offer only the Samsung PCMCIA card for the service.
Maravedis believes WiBro adoption in Korea will be rather gradual and modest
compared to initial estimations.

Municipal Wireless Broadband Market Trends and Strategies
The municipal wireless broadband market (Muni) is important to BWA and WiMAX
because it represents the broader range of applications included in emerging vision of
the Next Generation Mobile Network. This new vision is not simply 3G mobility with
added bandwidth. If that version of the future were to be maintained, then a large array
of applications would be left out as being undeserving of the industry’s focus. Although
municipal wireless is being implemented using WiFi WLAN systems, it represents the
enabling trend in semiconductors and open standards developments: the ability to
quickly extend technology and address markets that might otherwise and have in the
past gone underserved
Solution Vendor Trends: Building an Open Ecosystem
Building an ecosystem that goes from OSS to more powerful handsets and applications
is a requirement for WiMAX to become a mainstream technology. Maravedis has
interviewed more than 45 BWA/WiMAX system and component vendors as well as Tier
1 infrastructure suppliers, to understand their certification roadmap, product strategy
and company positioning for both 802.16-2004 and -2005.
We also included product roadmaps and analyses for non-WiMAX players such as IP
Wireless and L3 Com, who are pursuing different technology paths.
The result is a dynamic review of continued industry consolidation and guidance as to

who will be around in the next two years and why. We look at how 802.16-compliant
vendors will differentiate themselves from one another once the standard is in place and
becomes widely adopted. OEM relationships have become key for system vendors
hoping to become an important part of the emerging ecosystem.
Key Findings:
• With large volumes, WiMAX chipsets could sell for as little as US$10 by 2012, and
other WiMAX components could benefit from these mass volumes as well.
• Outdoor WiMAX CPE will be phased out in 2008 with indoor CPEs representing the
bulk of shipments. The cost of indoor CPE will fall to US$75 by that year, which will
in turn boost the proliferation of WiMAX.
• Base station costs are more complex due to the variety of types and scale, but the
average cost will fall under US$10,000 by 2012. However, base stations are less of
a factor in the economic equation for operator deployments.
• 5.8 GHz certified equipment will become available in 2007.

WiMAX Patent Portfolio, Policy and Market Analysis
Patents and other intellectual property are a vital part of the fuel that spurs technological
and market development. At its best, the patent system helps stimulate engineers,
mathematicians, scientists, and other talented people to toil diligently in pursuit of
inventions that benefit themselves and society in the process. WiMAX and other
advanced fields of wireless are ‘built on the backs of giants’: on the accomplishments of
thousands who have come before.
Key findings
• Maravedis does not think Qualcomm will enforce royalties on the field close to
royalties it enjoys for CDMA/WCDMA.
• We suggest that companies make a methodical, tempered assessment before

agreeing to pay royalties or commit their IPR to cross-licensing or other
arrangements.
• Various methods are available to reduce IPR risks. These include: (1) patent pools –
both profit and non-profit types, (2) mutual insurance associations, (3) trade
association policies such as the WiMAX Forum, (4) standards groups, (5) trade
authorities.
• ”Fair and reasonable” agreements of standards groups are often contested.
• Service providers want stability. A reasonable cost for IPR paid in royalties or cost of
goods is acceptable. Disruption of business is not desired.
Multimode Pushes WiMAX onto the 4G NGMN Front Burner
WiMAX is on track to compete for mainstream wireless markets. Nothing points out the
immediate course into mass market development than the planned introduction of
multimode WiMAX mobile plus cellular semiconductors and devices. Multimode will
open up the emerging market entrant to existing markets comprised of hundreds of
millions of current mobile wireless users.
What’s more, multimode makes the decision of incumbent operators less conflicted:
they do not need to spring for a system that is pursues an entirely new market
development divorced from current users and marketing. Instead, WiMAX is poised to
allow service providers to augment existing services as they transition to 4G Next
Generation Mobile Networks.
Key Findings
• Multimode 802.16e-2005 and cellular modes capitalize on current markets.

• WiMAX pioneers will learn to “embrace and extend” from prior industry leaders.
• WiMAX’s efficiency, higher bandwidth and adaptability extend incumbent cellular

system capabilities to higher bandwidth and more widespread applications.
• WiMAX Multimode will be available 2-3 years before comparable 3G-LTE.
Market Size Forecasts
Maravedis does not expect WiMAX to become a “3G killer” in the near future. WiMAX
provides a framework for 4G mobile, and within the mobile market arena is more
squarely pitted against 3GPP rev. 7 than against either current 1x EV-DO/EV-DV or
soon-to-roll-out HSDPA. In fact, with the prospects for introduction of multimode starting
in 2008, WiMAX will become an exceptional enhancement to existing cellular 3G
networks. Operators who adopt WiMAX multimode are not pressed into either replacing
or displacing service to customers. Instead, they have an evolutionary alternative to
provide higher bandwidth services and a ”personal broadband everywhere” triple or
quadruple play of services, which will help retain and attract customers.
Key Findings
• WiMAX chipsets will start to be embedded into laptops in the beginning of 2008, into
handheld devices in the beginning of 2009, and into consumer electronics in the
beginning of 2010. This is obviously a key assumption, as multimode devices will
expand dramatically the potential markets for WiMAX, especially when WiMAX
chipsets are embedded into cellular handsets and base stations.
• There are currently close to 2.5 million BWA subscribers worldwide.
• Maravedis predicts that there will be an accumulated 87 million BWA subscribers by

the end of 2012, 67 million of which will be WiMAX subscribers.
• WiMAX will represent 90% of subscribers who are added in 2012, of whom 75% will
be using 802.16-2005 technology.
• The WiMAX equipment market will reach an annual US$6 billion in 2012 and will
have generated accumulated revenues of US$15 billion by 2012.
If additional incumbent and mobile carriers adopt an operating model that includes
multi-mode WiMAX plus EV-DO/DV GSM and IMT2000, then expected volumes of
WiMAX will be subject to stepwise revision upward. In our optimistic scenario, WiMAX
subscribers will reach 100 million in 2012. In our pessimistic scenario, cumulative BWA
and WiMAX subscribers will only reach 40 million by 2012, of which 17 million will be
WiMAX subscribers. Scenario assumptions are explained in detail in the report.

WiMAX and Broadband Wireless

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

WiMAX and Broadband Wireless

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

www.maravedis-bwa.

Tel: (305) 865-1006

WiMAX and Broadband Wireless

September 2006 (4th Edition)

Authors: Adlane Fellah & Robert Syputa

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 1

Copyright ©September 2006

Maravedis Inc makes no warranties express or implied as to the results to be obtained

Maravedis return Policy:

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 2

Service Providers Perspective:

Sub-11GHz BWA/WiMAX Market:

• Broadband Wireless Technologies roadmap and performance compared

• Detailed Review of 802.16 chipset and RF makers

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 23

We have added a comprehensive municipal wireless section

We have introduced a section on multimode and wireless technologies compared

We have introduced an in-depth analysis on Intellectual Property Rights

We have added an analysis on RF component suppliers

We have added 50% more service provider profiles

We have introduced pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for the forecasts.

We have added 4.9GHz in the frequency breakdown

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 24

About the Team:

Adlane Fellah, MBA, is CEO and founder of Maravedis In a world-leader in market

Cintia Garza, Market Analyst obtained a Bachelor degree of International Commerce

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 3

1 BROADBAND WIRELESS EMERGES AT CENTER STAGE .................................. 32

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 7

3.2 INFLUENCE OF STANDARDS AND PRACTICE ............................................................. 120

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 8

6.3.1.3 WiMAX Telecom ................................................................................... 240

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 9

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 10

BWA/WIMAX SYSTEM VENDORS......................................................................4

30. Alcatel Mobile Group - Lucent.....................................................................199

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 2

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 3

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 13

Exhibit 42. Select US residential VoIP plans ......................................................................... 84

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 14

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 15

Exhibit 117. Structure of ITU .................................................................................................. 211

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 16

Exhibit 160. Volume Forecasts for WiFi chipsets................................................................ 421

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 17

Exhibit 205. Forecast of CPE revenue by Type 2006-2012 in US$................................. 452

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 18

Fixed Market Trends

The fundamentals for continued growth of broadband wireless remain sound.

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 25

• Shipments of OFDM-based product already accounted for 31% of broadband

• WiMAX-certified equipment is expected to reach $140 million in 2006.

Fixed Mobile Convergence Context

The emergence of WiMAX and other broadband wireless technologies is occurring in a

The Road to Personal Broadband

Whether it is 3G, 802.16-2005 or TD-CDMA, the success of mobile broadband will be

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 26

BWA/WiMAX Service Provider Trends

• Customers care about certification, standardization and economies of scale in the

Copyright © September 2006 Maravedis Inc. 27

Comparing WiMAX and 3G Evolution: How is WiMAX Different?

We believe that WiMAX is on two major tracks of wireless broadband evolution: