Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R)

Interviews Conducted:
February 15-17, 2016

For release after 10:00AM/ET Thursday, February 18, 2016

SOUTH CAROLINA
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and
Shaw & Company Research (R).
The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers February 15-17, 2016 among a
random state sample of 1,401 likely South Carolina primary voters. Respondents were screened
to identify likely primary voters. Results for the 642 likely Democratic primary voters have a
margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points and results for the 759 likely Republican
primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Landline (763) and cellphone (638) numbers were randomly selected from a statewide voter file
of registered South Carolina voters using a probability proportionate to size method. This simply
means that phone numbers are proportionally representative to the number of voters in all
regions across the state of South Carolina. Fieldwork conducted by Braun Research, Inc. of
Princeton, NJ.
An asterisk (*) is used for percentages of less than one-half percent.
A dash (-) represents a value of zero.
Some results may not add to 100% due to rounding.

1.

2.

How likely is it that you will vote in the South Carolina presidential primary this month - will you definitely vote in the primary, probably vote in the primary, probably not vote,
or definitely not vote? (IF DEFINITELY OR PROBABLY) Will you vote in the
Republican primary on February 20th or the Democratic on February 27th? (IF
ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote in the Republican primary or the Democratic
primary?
-----Democratic---------Republican----(Already
(Already
Definitely Probably
voted)
Definitely
Probably
Voted)
15-17 Feb 16
74%
25
2
80
18
3
PAST TREND
5-8 Dec 15
73%
27
N/A
80
20
N/A

Question 2 held for future release.

[IF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN Q1]

3.
Im going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2016 Republican nomination. If
the Republican presidential primary were held today, which one of the following
candidates would you support? [IF ALREADY VOTED] Who did you vote for in the
Republican primary? [IF NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if you had to decide today, which
one would you choose?]
[RANDOMIZE LIST]
5-8 Dec 2015
15-17 Feb 2016
N=759
N=437
Donald Trump
32%
35%
Ted Cruz
19
14
Marco Rubio
15
14
Ben Carson
9
15
Jeb Bush
9
5
John Kasich
6
1
Chris Christie
N/A
2
Lindsey Graham
N/A
2
Rand Paul
N/A
2
Carly Fiorina
N/A
1
Mike Huckabee
N/A
1
Rick Santorum
N/A
1
Jim Gilmore
N/A
*
George Pataki
N/A
(Other)
1
*
(None of the above)
1
1
(Dont know)
8
5
[RESUME ALL. SKIP IF ALREADY VOTED AND CODE AS CERTAIN]
4.
Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and
support someone else? [If dont know: re-read question and probe for answer]
15-17 Feb 2016
Certain
May change
(Dont know)
GOP primary voters
74%
25
1
Trump supporters
83%
17
Cruz supporters
73%
27
Rubio supporters
71%
28
-

[Q5-7 IF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN Q1. IF DONT KNOW IN Q3, SKIP AND CODE
AS DONT KNOW]
5.
And which Republican would be your second choice? [IF NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if
you had to decide today, which one would you choose?]
[ONLY READ LIST IF REQUESTED. READ IN SAME ORDER AS Q3. DO NOT
ACCEPT CHOICE FROM Q3]
First choice Second choice Without Trump
Without Cruz
Donald Trump
32%
9%
N/A
36%
Ted Cruz
19
16
26%
N/A
Marco Rubio
15
17
20
22
Ben Carson
9
11
14
12
Jeb Bush
9
11
12
11
John Kasich
6
10
10
7
(Other)
1
*
1
1
(None of the above)
1
10
6
2
(Dont know)
8
15
11
9
6.

And which of these candidates would you never support for the Republican nomination?
[ONLY READ LIST IF REQUESTED. ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES.
PROBE UNTIL NOT PRODUCTIVE:] Are there any others you would never support?
15-17 Feb 2016 5-8 Dec 2015
N=759
N=437
(Trump)
39%
24%
(Bush)
21
19
(Cruz)
19
8
(Kasich)
11
10
(Rubio)
11
6
(Carson)
6
7
(Graham)
N/A
18
(Paul)
N/A
10
(Christie)
N/A
9
(Fiorina)
N/A
8
(Huckabee)
N/A
7
(Pataki)
N/A
7
(Gilmore)
N/A
7
(Santorum)
N/A
5
(I would vote for any of
13
16
them/None/No one)
(Don't know)
7
10

7.

Has any Republican presidential candidate attacked another Republican candidate

unfairly? [IF YES] Which Republican candidate made that attack?
[ACCEPT MULTIPLE RESPONSES]

(Yes, Trump)
(Yes, Cruz)
(Yes, Rubio)
(Yes, Bush)
(Yes, Kasich)
(Yes, Carson)
(No)
(Don't know)

15-17 Feb 2016

N=759
47%
28
19
17
12
10
27
17

Fox News Poll -- Margin of Error for Subgroups

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and
Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers
February 15-17, 2016 among a random state sample of 1,401 South Carolina likely primary
voters. Results for the 642 likely Democratic primary voters have a margin of error of plus or
minus four percentage points and results for the 759 likely Republican primary voters have a
margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Results among the attached subgroups have larger sampling errors:

Republican Primary Voters +/- 3.5%

--+/- 4.5%
Men:
+/- 5.5%
Women:
--+/- 3.5%
White:
--+/- 4.5%
College Degree:
+/- 5.5%
No College Degree:
--+/- 7.5%
Veteran:
Under Age 45:
Age 45+:
--Income Under $50k:
Income $50k+:
--White Evangelical:
--Very Conservative:

+/- 6%
+/- 4%
+/- 7.5%
+/- 4.5%
+/- 4.5%
+/- 5.5%

Democratic Primary Voters +/- 4%

--+/- 5.5%
Men:
+/- 5%
Women:
--+/- 6%
White:
+/- 5%
Black:
--+/- 5.5%
College Degree:
+/- 5%
No College Degree:
--+/- 5.5%
Under Age 45:
+/- 5%
Age 45+:
--+/- 6%
Income Under $50k:
+/- 5.5%
Income $50k+:
--+/- 5.5%
Liberal:
---

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

1. How likely is it that you will vote in the South Carolina presidential primary this month -will you definitely vote in the primary, probably vote in the primary, probably not vote, or
definitely not vote?

Definitely vote in
Democratic primary
Probably vote in
Democratic primary
Definitely vote in
Republican primary
Probably vote in
Republican primary
(Already voted
Republican)
(Already voted
Democratic)
Probably not vote in
primary
Definitely not vote in
primary
(Not sure)

Definitely vote in
Democratic primary
Probably vote in
Democratic primary
Definitely vote in
Republican primary
Probably vote in
Republican primary
(Already voted
Republican)
(Already voted
Democratic)
Probably not vote in
primary
Definitely not vote in
primary
(Not sure)

Total
-

Men
-

Women
-

White
-

College
Degree
-

No
Degree
-

Vet
-

80%

83%

76%

79%

81%

78%

83%

18%

14%

21%

18%

15%

20%

11%

3%

3%

3%

3%

3%

2%

6%

Total
-

Under
Age 45
-

45+
-

Under
$50k
-

$50k+
-

White
Evangel
-

Very
Cons
-

80%

75%

82%

76%

81%

81%

87%

18%

23%

15%

20%

17%

16%

9%

3%

2%

3%

3%

2%

2%

4%

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

3. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] I'm going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2016
Republican nomination. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, which one of the
following would you support?

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)

Total
9%
9%
19%
6%
15%
32%
1%
1%
8%

Men
9%
6%
19%
9%
14%
35%
*%
1%
6%

Women
10%
11%
19%
4%
16%
28%
1%
1%
10%

White
10%
8%
19%
6%
16%
32%
1%
1%
8%

College
Degree
10%
8%
15%
9%
19%
31%
*%
1%
8%

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)

Total
9%
9%
19%
6%
15%
32%
1%
1%
8%

Under
Age 45
8%
9%
21%
7%
13%
31%
*%
11%

45+
10%
8%
18%
6%
16%
32%
1%
1%
7%

Under
$50k
12%
10%
26%
*%
14%
28%
1%
8%

$50k+
8%
9%
19%
8%
16%
33%
*%
1%
7%

No
Degree
9%
10%
25%
2%
11%
32%
1%
1%
8%

Vet
9%
6%
22%
6%
15%
37%
1%
4%

White
Evangel
10%
7%
23%
3%
17%
31%
*%
1%
6%

Very
Cons
7%
9%
31%
3%
14%
29%
1%
6%

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

4. Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and support
someone else?
Total

Men

Women

White

College
Degree

No
Degree

Vet

Certain
May change
(Don't know)

74%
25%
1%

78%
21%
1%

70%
29%
1%

75%
25%
*%

78%
21%
1%

69%
30%
1%

80%
20%
-

Certain
May change
(Don't know)

Total
74%
25%
1%

Under
Age 45
70%
29%
1%

45+
76%
23%
1%

Under
$50k
72%
28%
1%

White
Evangel
76%
24%
1%

Very
Cons
79%
20%
1%

$50k+
75%
24%
1%

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

5. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] And which Republican would be your second choice?

Total

Men

Women

White

College
Degree

No
Degree

Vet

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)

11%
11%
16%
10%
17%
9%
*%
10%
15%

11%
10%
18%
11%
18%
10%
1%
11%
11%

11%
13%
14%
9%
15%
9%
10%
19%

12%
11%
16%
10%
17%
9%
*%
9%
15%

12%
11%
16%
13%
17%
8%
*%
10%
13%

10%
12%
16%
7%
17%
11%
*%
9%
17%

9%
14%
17%
11%
17%
11%
1%
10%
9%

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Don't know)

Total
11%
11%
16%
10%
17%
9%
*%
10%
15%

Under
Age 45
10%
13%
17%
7%
12%
11%
*%
8%
21%

45+
12%
10%
15%
12%
19%
9%
*%
11%
12%

Under
$50k
9%
13%
17%
9%
15%
9%
10%
19%

White
Evangel
12%
13%
20%
7%
18%
8%
8%
13%

Very
Cons
9%
14%
21%
5%
21%
9%
8%
13%

$50k+
12%
11%
17%
10%
19%
10%
*%
9%
11%

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

6. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] And which of these candidates would you never support for the
Republican nomination? (Multiple response)

(I would vote for any of

them/None/No one)
(Trump)
(Carson)
(Cruz)
(Rubio)
(Bush)
(Kasich)
(Don't know)

(I would vote for any of

them/None/No one)
(Trump)
(Carson)
(Cruz)
(Rubio)
(Bush)
(Kasich)
(Don't know)

Total
13%

Men
13%

Women
13%

White
13%

College
Degree
11%

No
Degree
13%

Vet
15%

39%
6%
19%
11%
21%
11%
7%

36%
7%
21%
14%
23%
12%
6%

42%
5%
18%
9%
18%
11%
8%

38%
6%
19%
11%
21%
12%
7%

41%
7%
25%
12%
19%
12%
7%

37%
5%
13%
10%
24%
10%
8%

31%
5%
25%
16%
21%
13%
8%

Total
13%

Under
Age 45
10%

45+
14%

Under
$50k
12%

$50k+
13%

White
Evangel
15%

Very
Cons
16%

39%
6%
19%
11%
21%
11%
7%

41%
7%
18%
12%
18%
11%
7%

38%
6%
20%
10%
22%
11%
7%

43%
7%
15%
11%
22%
13%
6%

37%
6%
21%
11%
22%
12%
6%

39%
5%
13%
10%
21%
11%
8%

38%
4%
10%
10%
26%
13%
6%

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

7. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] Has any Republican presidential candidate attacked another
Republican candidate unfairly? IF YES: Which Republican candidate made that attack? (Multiple
response)

(No)
(Yes, Trump)
(Yes, Carson)
(Yes, Cruz)
(Yes, Rubio)
(Yes, Bush)
(Yes, Kasich)
(Don't know)

Total
27%
47%
10%
28%
19%
17%
12%
17%

Men
30%
45%
12%
29%
21%
19%
13%
13%

Women
23%
48%
8%
26%
18%
15%
11%
20%

White
26%
47%
10%
28%
20%
17%
12%
17%

College
Degree
29%
46%
10%
30%
18%
15%
10%
16%

(No)
(Yes, Trump)
(Yes, Carson)
(Yes, Cruz)
(Yes, Rubio)
(Yes, Bush)
(Yes, Kasich)
(Don't know)

Total
27%
47%
10%
28%
19%
17%
12%
17%

Under
Age 45
32%
38%
7%
20%
13%
10%
6%
20%

45+
24%
51%
12%
32%
23%
21%
14%
15%

Under
$50k
22%
50%
9%
24%
19%
16%
11%
18%

$50k+
28%
47%
10%
29%
19%
17%
12%
15%

No
Degree
24%
48%
11%
25%
21%
19%
13%
18%

Vet
27%
48%
16%
34%
23%
22%
16%
14%

White
Evangel
22%
50%
10%
27%
20%
18%
13%
18%

Very
Cons
22%
54%
11%
27%
21%
19%
15%
16%