Professional Documents
Culture Documents
HOUSE
INVENTING THE
HOUSE
Case-Specific Studies on
Housing Innovation
ANDREW R. SANDERFORD,
ANDREW P. MCCOY, DONG ZHAO,
CHARLES T. KOEBEL, MATTHEW J. KEEFE,
TREVOR H. FLANERY,
PERNILLE H. CHRISTENSEN
Abstract
Businesses, consumers, industry groups and governments understand the
importance of innovation for continued economic success and improvements in quality of life. However, innovation in the housing and residential construction industry remains a topic about which little is known while
a small but growing literature is making positive progress.
Building on the first book in the Housing Innovation collection, the
purpose of this book is to share new research paradigms that focus on innovation and are, in and of themselves, innovative. The first chapters focus
on a newly created diffusion of innovation model and its application to the
industry while later chapters showcase several innovative techniques that
shed new light on housing, residential construction, and policy-making.
As the second book in the Housing Innovation collection, this book is
designed to assist readers as they continue to peel back the complex layers
of innovation in housing and residential construction.
KEYWORDS
adoption and diffusion of innovation, agent-based models, 4D modeling,
climate change, high-performance construction, homebuilding, housing,
sustainability
Contents
List of Figures
xi
List of Tables
xiii
Preface
xv
Acknowledgments
xvii
xix
xxi
Andrew R. Sanderford
1.1Introduction
References3
2The Adoption and Diffusion of Innovation in
Housing and Home Building
10
11
2.7Time
12
12
13
viii Contents
14
14
16
2.13Discussion
17
References18
3Demonstrating a Diffusion of Innovation Model:
Patterns of U.S. Homebuilders High Performance
Product Adoption
23
23
3.2Data
24
29
30
3.5Conclusions
32
References33
4Establishing Builder Confidence for the
Residential Construction Industry
35
35
36
4.3Methods
38
4.4Findings
43
47
References49
Appendix49
5Computational Housing Research: A Modeling Primer
53
Trevor H. Flanery
5.1Introduction
53
54
58
60
64
References66
Contents ix
69
Pernille H. Christensen
6.1Introduction
69
70
74
76
82
83
References84
Index
87
List of Figures
Figure 2.1. Conceptual model and variables.
13
29
46
48
79
79
80
81
81
List of Tables
Table 3.1. Attributes of innovation
26
27
28
31
40
44
44
45
45
47
57
58
Preface
In his foundational investigations of innovation, Rogers traces the history
of the research tradition back to social scientists at the turn of the 20th
century (Rogers 1962, 1995). Noting that by 1995 there were 10 research
traditions employing and using adoption and diffusion as lenses through
which to process qualitative and quantitative innovation data, it is little
surprise to find academic, professional, and popular research and writing
about the topic in many fields. Interest in the topic has grown such that
some innovation scholars, for example, Clayton Christensen, author of the
Innovators Dilemma (Christensen 2013), have become household names
for their contributions to the research conversation.
However, despite the ubiquity of innovation related research and
speculation, there remain a number of fields where little is known about
the process of adoption and diffusion of innovation. Housing and residential construction are two prime examples. Though there is an emerging literature surrounding how and why innovation occurs across these
industries, substantial research opportunities exist.
This book and subsequent volumes in the Innovating the House
collection were designed to fill part of this gap. The collection is the
follow-up to a Housing and Urban Development (HUD) funded research
project, Impact of Market Behavior on the Adoption and Diffusion of
Innovative Green Building Technologies (GRANT10814146), conducted
by the Virginia Center for Housing Research. As part of this grant, the
team analyzed the adoption and diffusion of innovation among residential building firms. More specifically, the project focused on sustainability
and energy efficiency as innovations and the factors that contributed to
their adoption patterns by U.S. home builders. The Housing Innovation
collection seeks to summarize this work and draw together a number of
new resources and voices on innovation within residential construction.
Building on the first book in the collection, Case-Specific Studies
on Housing Innovation provides two perspectives on innovation within
xvi Preface
housing and residential construction. First, it describes and then demonstrates a newly advanced empirical model of the diffusion of innovation
among home builders. These chapters focus on identifying the factors
associated with the innovation adoption decisions of U.S. home builders.
Then, the next several chapters showcase innovative research techniques
that have been brought to bear on housing to develop new knowledge
about decision making, policy making, and latent concepts such as
confidence. Among these innovative techniques are an agent-based
model, a new 4D dynamic spatial model of climate change risk, and a
new index based on survey responses of home builders and renovation
contractors. The purpose of this bifurcated approach is to highlight the
diversity of ways innovation colors and contributes to the aggregation and
creation of knowledge.
However, while this book demonstrates a number of leading edge
applications of research techniques and offers a discussion of their findings, it is far from an exhaustive summary of the array of innovative ideas
surrounding the field of housing. Instead, we hope that it whets the appetite
of those interested in innovation and can contribute substantively to the
conversation about future opportunities for research and investigation.
Please note that the statements and conclusions contained in this work
are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies
of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development or the U.S.
government. The authors have made every effort to verify the accuracy
and appropriateness of the works content. However, no guarantee of the
accuracy or completeness of the information or acceptability for compliance with any industry standard or mandatory requirement of any code,
law, or regulation is either offered or implied. The products and systems
described in the report are included only as examples of some available
choices. No endorsement, recommendation, or evaluation of these products or their use is given or implied.
REFERENCES
Christensen, C. 2013. The Innovators Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause
Great Firms to Fail. Boston, MA: Harvard Business Review Press.
Rogers, E. 1962. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: Free Press.
Rogers, E. 1995. Diffusion of Innovations. New York: Free Press.
Acknowledgments
The Housing Innovation collection, and specifically this book, would not
have been possible without the support, cajoling, and contributions from
a wide array of friends, colleagues, students, mentors, and critics. The
authors wish to acknowledge the contributions of Dr. Hazhir Rahmandad,
Dr. Christopher Franck, Joshua Washburn, Parisa
Nikkhoo, Indrojeet
Kharde, and Alexys Wellott without whose work this book would not
have been possible. Also, a deep debt of gratitude is owed to Marilyn
Cavell who both managed the reporting side of the research project and
helped; based on her previous scholarship, provide background to much
of what takes shape here in the pages that follow. Additionally, the authors
thank Dr. Elizabeth Cocke and Dr. Regina Gray in HUDs Office of Policy
Development and Research for their funding, supervision, and constructive criticism of our work.
and Landscape Architecture (CAPLA) at the University of Arizona. Previously, Sanderford was a post-doctoral research fellow at the Virginia
Center for Housing Research, a research center within the College of
Architecture and Urban Studies at Virginia Tech.
Andrew P. McCoy, PhD is the Preston and Catharine White Endowed
Fellow and Associate Director of the Myers-Lawson School of Construction (MLSoC) and the Director of the Virginia Center for Housing
Research (VCHR) at Virginia Tech. He is Associate Professor of Building
Construction in the Myers-Lawson School of Construction, a joint venture
of the College of Engineering and the College of Architecture and Urban
Studies which focuses on interdisciplinary, multi-departmental outreach,
research, and education. The School serves the full life-cycle and supply
chain across all sectors of the Industry.
Dong Zhao, PhD, LEED AP is an Assistant Professor of Construction
Management in the School of Planning, Design and Construction (SPDC)
at Michigan State University. He was the a postdoctoral fellow at the
Virginia Center for Housing Research and the Myers-Lawson School of
Construction at Virginia Tech.
Matthew J. Keefe, MS is a PhD student in the Department of Statistics at
Virginia Tech. He earned his M.S. degree in Statistics from Virginia Tech
in 2013. He is an active collaborator in LISA (Virginia Techs Laboratory
for Interdisciplinary Statistical Analysis), where he closely works with
researchers in other fields. Previously, he was a research assistant providing statistical support for researchers at the Virginia Center for Housing
Research.
Charles T. Koebel, PhD is the founder and former director of the Virginia
Center for Housing Research, a research center within the College of
Architecture and Urban Studies at Virginia Tech. At present he serves
as a Senior Researcher at VCHR, contributing regularly to research and
discovery. Previously, Koebel was a Professor of Urban Affairs and Planning at the College of Architecture and Urban Studies at Virginia Tech.
Dr.Koebel retired from teaching in the Spring of 2015.
Trevor H. Flanery, is a PhD candidate in the College of Architecture and
Urban Studies at Virginia Tech. He has served as a graduate assistant in
Virginia Techs Metropolitan Institute, the Office of Economic Development, and is currently serving at the Global Forum on Urban and Regional
Resilience. He is also a visiting student at the Network Dynamics and
Simulation Science Lab at the Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, a research
center at Virginia Tech.
Pernille H. Christensen, PhD is a Senior Lecturer and the Course Director for the Bachelor of Property Economics program in the School of Built
Environment at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS). Previously,
Christensen was a Research Associate in the Richard H. Pennell Center for
Real Estate Development (CRED) at Clemson University. Her research
focuses on sustainability at all levels of the built environment and aims
to improve the decision-making processes related to urban resilience for
industry practitioners.
CHAPTER 1
Case-Specific Studies on
Housing Innovation
Andrew R. Sanderford
1.1INTRODUCTION
Nearly 20 years ago, some construction researchers argued that technology was changing faster than actors in the homebuilding market perceived
(Toole 1998). Building on prior research (Dibner and Lemer 1992), some in
the construction literature (Slaughter 1998) questioned the long-standing
perception that the construction industry (even more so the homebuilder)
was an innovation laggard and generally resistant to innovation.
Recent research focused on innovation in construction has continued to question the perspective of the builder as an innovation laggard
by adapting empirically driven diffusion of innovation models to construction data (Kale and Arditi 2005, 2006, 2009; Rose and Manley 2012,
2014) drawing on innovation-focused survey data (Koebel 2008), and
conducting case studies of firms and specific products. Each of these clusters of research added significantly to the prior research that identified the
obstacles to the adoption and diffusion of innovation across the housing
and homebuilding industries. Together, this body of literature has substantially increased our collective understanding of how and why innovation
occurs in building construction.
As the second book in the Housing Innovation collection, CaseSpecific Studies on Housing Innovation, extends the discussion begun in
People, Policies, and Programs Influencing Innovation in Housing. The
authors of the book focused on the history, literature, policy, and climate
of opinion surrounding innovation in the U.S. housing and homebuilding
and measures seven important indicators including sales, market, materials, government, and macro economy. Initial findings confirm key differences between the two types of homebuilders in terms of confidence and
reveal interesting correlations over time.
In Chapter 5, Trevor Flannery describes agent-based models (ABMs)
and discusses how they provide a tool to explore change and possibilities
of change (scenario planning) in housing trends and research. Specifically,
Flannery examines gentrification feedbacks; the adoption and diffusion of
innovative building technology; supply and demand rent mitigation; and
urban form. The chapter begins with a focus on agent-based modeling
software, basic algorithms design, and then moves into the above topics
and how one might approach them using advanced modeling techniques
and tools. The chapter concludes with a discussion of ABMs potential as
an urban housing development coordination tool.
Chapter 6 by Pernille Christensen describes the literature foundation,
and climatological need, and application of a new dynamic geospatial
modeling tool to urban housing development and regulation. This work
suggests significant possibilities in how risk is analyzed in housing markets
and should likely catalyze additional innovation not only in the integration
of spatial and economic data but also in the integration of e nvironmental
risk with housing market analyses.
In short, Case-Specific Studies on Housing Innovation opens a window into two related innovation-centered areas of scholarship. First, it
highlights the development and application of an empirical diffusion of
innovation model designed to predict U.S. homebuilders energy efficient
technology (and product) adoption decisions. Then, it showcases several
innovative quantitative and spatial techniques that have been developed
to create deeper insight into the housing and homebuilding market place.
Together, these two related tracks help to illustrate how housing researchers are adapting techniques from related (and unrelated) fields to shed
new light onto the complexities of the homebuilding process and housing
markets.
REFERENCES
Dibner, D.R., and A.C. Lemer. 1992. The Role of Public Agencies in Fostering
New Technology and Innovation in Building. Washington DC: National
Academies Press.
Kale, S., and D. Arditi. 2005. Diffusion of Computer Aided Design Technology in Architectural Design Practice. Journal of Construction
Engineering and Management 131, no. 10, pp. 113541. doi:10.1061/
(asce)0733-9364(2005)131:10(1135)
Index
A
ABM. See agent-based models
adoption/diffusion of innovation,
i, 518
adoption decision, 89
attributes of adoption, 910
attributes of market, 1112
attributes of product, supply
chains and communication
networks, 1011
summary over, 68
data on, 2429
dependent variable, 14
independent variable, 1416
Koebels diffusion model, 1213
measuring adoption decision,
1314
regression modeling, 1617
role of time in, 12
Agent-Based and IndividualBased Modeling: A Practical
Introduction (Railsback and
Grimm), 59
agent-based models (ABM), i,
5364
affordable housing dynamics, 64
housing and, 6064
research approach, 64
resources to start modeling,
5860
algorithm, 62
ArcGIS product line, 60
ARIMA. See autoregressive
integrated moving average
88Index
survey, 3840
vs. HMI, 47t, 48f
Builders Practices Survey (BPS),
24
building information management
(BIM) software, 10
C
c-statistics, 30
Case-Specific Studies on Housing
Innovation, 1
CBSA-level. See Core Based
Statistical Area-level
Center for Research on the
Epidemiology of Disaster
(CRED), 71
CIA. See Cumulative Impact
Assessment
classic Segregation Model, 62
climate change, i
climate-related disaster, 7072
coevolving housing factors, 58t
coevolving housing relationships,
57t
coevolving volatility, 56, 57t
Community Rating System (CRS),
74
compatibility measures, 14
complementarity index, 26, 3031
complex adaptive systems, 55, 56
complexity measures, 14
computational housing research,
5365
ABM and, 6064
ABM resources to start
modeling, 5860
ABM software tools, 5354
complexity issues in, 55
digital data tracking and, 55
overview of, 5354
signals and boundaries in, 61
social science modeling theory,
5458
computational social science, 55
confidence indexing by segment,
45t
Index 89
geophysical disaster, 70
GIS. See geographical information
systems
government and regulatory climate
(GR), 39
Gravity Network Index, 26
green building diffusion, 1718
H
Hanley Wood (HW), 38
Hazard Identification and Risk
Assessments (HIRAs), 7576
Hazard Mitigation Grant Program
(HMGP), 75
Heating, Ventilation, and AirConditioning (HVAC), 24
high-performance construction, i
HIRAs. See Hazard Identification
and Risk Assessments
HMGP. See Hazard Mitigation
Grant Program
HMI. See Housing Market Index
Home Innovations Research Lab,
24
homebuilding, i
factors shaping, 7
lack of technological innovation
in, 78
confidence building in, 37
index background, 3638
housing innovation, i
adoption and diffusion of, 518
case-specific studies on, 13
demonstrating diffusion of ,
2333
on economic growth, 17
focused survey data, 13
laggard, 7
public policy impacts on, 16
Housing Innovation, 8
Housing Market Index (HMI), 35
vs. BCI, 47t, 48f
Hurricane Joaquin, 73
HVAC. See Heating, Ventilation,
and Air-Conditioning (HVAC)
hydrological disaster, 70, 72
90Index
I
IAOs. See innovation adopting
organizations
ICFs. See Insulating Concrete
Form Systems
IFR. See Interim Final Rule
IGO. See innovation generating
organization
independent variables, 1416
attributes of adopter, 25
attributes of innovation, 25, 26t
contextual/external conditions,
25
external factors, 28t
internal factors, 27t
Index of Consumer Sentiment, 36
index of homebuilding industry,
3638
innovation adopting organizations
(IAOs), 8
innovation generating organization
(IGO), 8
instrument design in BCI, 3840
Insulating Concrete Form Systems
(ICFs), 24
Interim Final Rule (IFR), 75
internal attributes, 15
internal factors, 27t
Introduction to Agent-Based
Modeling: Modeling Natural,
Social, and Engineered
Complex Systems with Netlogo
(Wilensky and Rand), 59
iterative proportional fitting (IPF),
41
K
Koebels diffusion model, 1213
L
labor (LB), 39
LASSO. See Least Absolute
Shrinkage and Selection
Operator
Index 91
92Index