Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441

Geography: Kentucky Data Collected: 04/09/2010 - 04/11/2010 Release Date: 04/12/2010 Sponsor: The Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll, (Louisville, KY)

5 Weeks from KY Senate Primaries, Rand Paul Steady Atop Trey Grayson; Dan Mongiardo Loses Ground to Jack Conway: In a Republican Primary for US Senate today, 04/12/10, 5 weeks from the vote, Rand Paul defeats Trey Grayson 45% to 30%, according to this exclusive Louisville Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released 5 weeks ago, both candidates have gained 3 points. Paul, an eye surgeon, political activist, and son of Texas Republican Congressman Ron Paul, leads by double digits among men and women, among conservatives, pro-life voters, gun owners, those without college educations, those with lower household incomes, and in western and north-central Kentucky. Grayson, Kentucky's Secretary of State, is competitive among middle-aged voters, moderate and liberal voters, those who do not own guns, college graduates, those with higher incomes, and in Eastern Kentucky. Grayson leads today only among the 1 in 5 Republican primary voters who say they are pro-choice. 3 other candidates on the Republican ballot today remain in single digits; 1 additional candidate, Bill Johnson, dropped out of the race and was not included for this release in the list of names read to voters. 5 weeks ago, Johnson had 5% of the vote. In a Democratic primary for US Senate today, Dan Mongiardo has lost ground among women, the wealthy and among those in Western KY, and now finds himself running even with Jack Conway. Mongiardo, Kentucky's Lieutenant Governor, gets 35% today, down 10 points from a SurveyUSA poll 5 weeks ago. Conway, Kentucky's Attorney General, gets 32% today, up 5 points in the past 5 weeks. Mongiardo had led by 19 among women, now trails by 2, a swing of 21 points to Conway. Mongiardo had led by 14 among wealthier Democrats, now trails by 5, a swing of 19 points to Conway. Mongiardo had led 4:1 in Western KY, now leads there narrowly, a swing of 35 points to Conway. 3 other candidates combine today to take 11% of the vote; 21% of likely primary voters are undecided.

2010 General Election Remains Anyone's To Win: After asking Republican likely primary voters which Republican they will vote for in the primary, and after asking Democratic likely primary voters which Democrat they will vote for in the primary, SurveyUSA asked all registered KY voters, regardless of party affiliation or likeliness to vote in a primary, to think ahead to the general election in November. Today, 44% of registered Kentucky voters say they will vote for the Republican US Senate candidate in November; 41% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate. 15% today say they are undecided, including 30% of independents.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,100 KY adults 04/09/10 through 04/11/10. Of them, 1,894 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 446 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/18/10 GOP Primary; 659 were determined to be likely to vote in the 05/18/10 Democratic primary. Incumbent Republican US Senator Jim Bunning is not seeking re-election.

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If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Trey Grayson? Rand Paul? Gurley Martin? Jon Scribner? Or John Stephenson? All 30% 45% 2% 1% 3% 19% 100% 100% Gender Male 33% 45% 1% 1% 3% 16% 100% 57% Female 18-34 26% 46% 3% 1% 2% 22% 100% 43% 16% 53% 5% 0% 0% 26% 100% 14% 35% 37% 2% 2% 2% 22% 100% 33% Age 35-49 50-64 35% 45% 1% 1% 4% 13% 100% 33% 65+ 26% 53% 0% 2% 2% 16% 100% 21% <50 / 50+ 18-49 29% 42% 3% 1% 2% 23% 100% 47% 50+ 31% 48% 1% 1% 4% 15% 100% 53% White 30% 46% 2% 1% 3% 19% 100% 98% ** ** ** ** ** ** 100% 1% Race ** ** ** ** ** ** 100% 0% ** ** ** ** ** ** 100% 1% 30% 45% 2% 1% 3% 19% 100% 100% Party ** ** ** ** ** ** 0% 0% ** ** ** ** ** ** 0% 0%

446 Likely GOP Primary Voters Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.7% Grayson Paul Martin Scribner Stephenson Undecided Total Composition of Likely GOP Primary

Black Hispani Other Republi Democr Indepen

© 2010 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441 - Page 1

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441
Geography: Kentucky Data Collected: 04/09/2010 - 04/11/2010 Release Date: 04/12/2010 Sponsor: The Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll, (Louisville, KY)

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If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Trey Grayson? Rand Paul? Gurley Martin? Jon Scribner? Or John Stephenson? All 30% 45% 2% 1% 3% 19% 100% 100% Ideology Conser Modera Liberal 29% 51% 1% 0% 2% 16% 100% 64% 32% 38% 3% 4% 5% 18% 100% 28% 39% 39% 0% 0% 6% 16% 100% 6% College Grad Yes 38% 44% 1% 1% 1% 15% 100% 46% No 23% 47% 2% 2% 4% 21% 100% 54% Attend Religious Services 32% 49% 1% 1% 3% 14% 100% 60% 27% 42% 3% 2% 4% 23% 100% 26% 31% 38% 1% 2% 1% 28% 100% 14% Abortion 27% 50% 2% 1% 2% 18% 100% 76% 42% 32% 2% 3% 5% 16% 100% 21% Own a Gun? Yes 29% 48% 2% 1% 3% 15% 100% 67% No 37% 37% 1% 1% 2% 22% 100% 29% Income < $50K > $50K 22% 49% 1% 2% 5% 22% 100% 42% 38% 42% 2% 1% 2% 15% 100% 58%

446 Likely GOP Primary Voters Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.7% Grayson Paul Martin Scribner Stephenson Undecided Total Composition of Likely GOP Primary

Regular Occasio Almost Pro-life Pro-cho

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If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Trey Grayson? Rand Paul? Gurley Martin? Jon Scribner? Or John Stephenson? All 30% 45% 2% 1% 3% 19% 100% 100% Region Wester Louisvill North C Eastern 22% 51% 3% 2% 2% 21% 100% 23% 33% 42% 2% 1% 2% 21% 100% 22% 32% 49% 1% 1% 2% 13% 100% 32% 34% 38% 2% 1% 5% 21% 100% 23%

446 Likely GOP Primary Voters Margin of Sampling Error: +/-4.7% Grayson Paul Martin Scribner Stephenson Undecided Total Composition of Likely GOP Primary

© 2010 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441 - Page 2

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441
Geography: Kentucky Data Collected: 04/09/2010 - 04/11/2010 Release Date: 04/12/2010 Sponsor: The Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll, (Louisville, KY)

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If the Democratic Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jack Conway? Dan Mongiardo? James Buckmaster? Darlene Price? Or Maurice Sweeney? All 32% 35% 4% 5% 2% 21% 100% 100% Gender Male 29% 36% 4% 5% 3% 21% 100% 47% Female 18-34 35% 33% 4% 5% 1% 22% 100% 53% 34% 35% 5% 4% 4% 17% 100% 14% 29% 38% 6% 4% 2% 22% 100% 29% Age 35-49 50-64 36% 31% 4% 5% 2% 22% 100% 33% 65+ 32% 36% 2% 7% 2% 22% 100% 25% <50 / 50+ 18-49 30% 37% 6% 4% 3% 20% 100% 42% 50+ 34% 33% 3% 6% 2% 22% 100% 58% White 33% 36% 4% 5% 2% 21% 100% 91% Race 32% 28% 2% 7% 10% 20% 100% 7% ** ** ** ** ** ** 100% 1% ** ** ** ** ** ** 100% 1% ** ** ** ** ** ** 0% 0% Party 32% 35% 4% 5% 2% 21% 100% 100% ** ** ** ** ** ** 0% 0%

659 Likely Democratic Primary Voter Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.9% Conway Mongiardo Buckmaster Price Sweeney Undecided Total Composition of Likely Democratic Pri

Black Hispani Other Republi Democr Indepen

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If the Democratic Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jack Conway? Dan Mongiardo? James Buckmaster? Darlene Price? Or Maurice Sweeney? All 32% 35% 4% 5% 2% 21% 100% 100% Ideology Conser Modera Liberal 34% 20% 8% 4% 3% 32% 100% 24% 32% 40% 3% 5% 3% 17% 100% 47% 37% 42% 4% 4% 1% 13% 100% 22% College Grad Yes 34% 35% 5% 4% 3% 19% 100% 39% No 32% 34% 4% 6% 2% 23% 100% 61% Attend Religious Services 33% 32% 4% 5% 3% 23% 100% 59% 26% 37% 7% 4% 2% 25% 100% 23% 39% 41% 2% 8% 1% 10% 100% 17% Abortion 33% 27% 7% 6% 3% 24% 100% 44% 30% 42% 2% 5% 2% 19% 100% 53% Own a Gun? Yes 31% 37% 4% 6% 2% 20% 100% 58% No 35% 34% 4% 3% 3% 21% 100% 39% Income < $50K > $50K 25% 35% 6% 7% 2% 25% 100% 47% 39% 34% 3% 3% 3% 19% 100% 53%

659 Likely Democratic Primary Voter Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.9% Conway Mongiardo Buckmaster Price Sweeney Undecided Total Composition of Likely Democratic Pri

Regular Occasio Almost Pro-life Pro-cho

© 2010 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441 - Page 3

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441
Geography: Kentucky Data Collected: 04/09/2010 - 04/11/2010 Release Date: 04/12/2010 Sponsor: The Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll, (Louisville, KY)

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If the Democratic Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jack Conway? Dan Mongiardo? James Buckmaster? Darlene Price? Or Maurice Sweeney? All 32% 35% 4% 5% 2% 21% 100% 100% Region Wester Louisvill North C Eastern 29% 33% 3% 6% 1% 28% 100% 21% 49% 27% 2% 5% 2% 14% 100% 28% 29% 35% 5% 4% 4% 24% 100% 35% 17% 50% 7% 6% 0% 21% 100% 16%

659 Likely Democratic Primary Voter Margin of Sampling Error: +/-3.9% Conway Mongiardo Buckmaster Price Sweeney Undecided Total Composition of Likely Democratic Pri

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If the General Eelection for United States Senator from Kentucky were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) The Republican candidate? Or The Democratic candidate? Gender Male 48% 39% 13% 100% 49% Female 18-34 40% 43% 17% 100% 51% 41% 38% 20% 100% 20% 44% 41% 15% 100% 31% Age 35-49 50-64 45% 40% 15% 100% 29% 65+ 46% 44% 10% 100% 20% <50 / 50+ 18-49 43% 40% 17% 100% 51% 50+ 45% 41% 13% 100% 49% White 46% 38% 16% 100% 91% Race 12% 75% 13% 100% 6% ** ** ** 100% 1% ** ** ** 100% 1% 80% 6% 13% 100% 39% Party 18% 67% 14% 100% 53% 37% 33% 30% 100% 9%

1894 Registered Voters Margin of Sampling Error: +/-2.3% Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate Undecided Total Composition of Registered Voters

All 44% 41% 15% 100% 100%

Black Hispani Other Republi Democr Indepen

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If the General Eelection for United States Senator from Kentucky were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) The Republican candidate? Or The Democratic candidate? Ideology Conser Modera Liberal 74% 14% 12% 100% 38% 31% 52% 17% 100% 40% 15% 74% 11% 100% 15% College Grad Yes 48% 37% 16% 100% 37% No 42% 43% 15% 100% 63% Attend Religious Services 49% 37% 14% 100% 54% 39% 43% 18% 100% 28% 35% 50% 15% 100% 19% Abortion 57% 28% 15% 100% 57% 26% 60% 15% 100% 40% Own a Gun? Yes 49% 37% 14% 100% 58% No 35% 48% 17% 100% 39% Income < $50K > $50K 39% 44% 17% 100% 50% 48% 38% 14% 100% 50%

1894 Registered Voters Margin of Sampling Error: +/-2.3% Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate Undecided Total Composition of Registered Voters

All 44% 41% 15% 100% 100%

Regular Occasio Almost Pro-life Pro-cho

© 2010 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441 - Page 4

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441
Geography: Kentucky Data Collected: 04/09/2010 - 04/11/2010 Release Date: 04/12/2010 Sponsor: The Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll, (Louisville, KY)

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If the General Eelection for United States Senator from Kentucky were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) The Republican candidate? Or The Democratic candidate? Region Wester Louisvill North C Eastern 49% 33% 18% 100% 23% 38% 48% 15% 100% 27% 45% 42% 14% 100% 33% 47% 38% 16% 100% 18%

1894 Registered Voters Margin of Sampling Error: +/-2.3% Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate Undecided Total Composition of Registered Voters

All 44% 41% 15% 100% 100%

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful. Statement of Methodology: The following statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls:How this poll was conducted: This SurveyUSA poll was conducted by telephone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondent households were selected at random, using Random Digit Dialed (RDD) sample provided by Survey Sampling, of Fairfield CT. All respondents heard the questions asked identically. Within the report, you will find: the geography that was surveyed; the date(s) interviews were conducted and the news organization(s) that paid for the research. The number of respondents who answered each question and the margin of sampling error for each question are provided. Where necessary, responses were weighted according to age, gender, ethnic origin, geographical area and number of adults and number of voice telephone lines in the household, so that the sample would reflect the actual demographic proportions in the population, using most recent U.S.Census estimates. In theory, with the stated sample size, one can say with 95% certainty that the results would not vary by more than the stated margin of sampling error, in one direction or the other, had the entire universe of respondents been interviewed with complete accuracy. There are other possible sources of error in all surveys that may be more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. These include refusals to be interviewed, question wording and question order, weighting by demographic control data and the manner in which respondents are filtered (such as, determining who is a likely voter). It is difficult to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Fieldwork for this survey was done by SurveyUSA of Clifton, NJ.

© 2010 SurveyUSA - www.surveyusa.com

Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16441 - Page 5

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