Megawatt Jan 6

MEGAWATT DAILY
Wednesday, January 6, 2016

News HeadliNes
iNside THis issUe
el Nio, CPP, litigation big factors in 2016: experts
ISO-NE defends solar in ICR calculation

Niagra Mohawk aims at linking 100 solar rooftops
TVA finds damage in Tennessee nuclear unit
Weather could push natgas prices lower

World economy could continue to slow
6
7
8
(continued on page 2)
day-ahead peak prices
Northeast power grid endures first cold snap

Demand surges to 18,087 MW Tuesday morning
Locational margin price to $360/MWh
aeP to co-fire Conesville per PPa settlement

Sufficient gas supplies for two coal-fired units
Ohio EPA could slow state CPP planning
California iOUs on track to meet RPs: PUC

In 2014 three IOUs average 26.6% RPS
PG&Es RPS compliance cost $107.09 MWh
Regional weather trends
06-Jan
daily
chg
Prior
7-day avg
06-Jan
daily
chg
7-day
forecast
isO Price locations

CAISO NP 15
ERCOT North Hub
ISONE Internal Hub
MISO Indiana Hub
NYISO Zone G
PJM West Hub
SPP South Hub
33.70
20.50
66.06
26.05
51.08
39.83
24.40
0.77
-2.50
5.18
-3.05
4.06
-3.55
-2.59
31.91
21.76
47.23
26.17
33.93
30.95
25.85
52.2
47.4
29.2
28.7
29.0
29.2
36.0
-1.8
7.5
10.4
5.9
8.6
5.5
4.9
53.2
46.7
34.0
24.6
34.6
35.3
29.5
Bilateral indexes
Into Southern
Palo Verde
COB
Mid-C
31.00
22.75
24.54
23.84
1.00
-1.25
-2.92
-2.88
21.75
25.15
28.16
27.25
45.0
51.5
39.9
39.9
3.9
-1.7
1.9
1.9
51.5
51.5
37.0
37.0
Source: Platts
COAL-TO-GAS POWER PRICE RATIOS AT MAJOR TRADING HUBS
Troubled foreign traders maintain Us operations
2.5
Noble Americas and BTG Pactual Commodities power sales up

Both confirm their trading continues, at least for now
ERCOT North
CAISO SP15
Threshold
2.0
SPP South
PJM West
MISO Indiana
1.5
1.0
0.5
spot power retreats with demand in west
14-Jul
11-Aug
09-Sep
07-Oct
04-Nov
03-Dec
04-Jan
The Platts coal-to-gas power price ratios are used to asses the regional competitiveness between coal
and gas generation at the major power trading hubs. The ratio is defined as the coal $/MWh dispatch
price divided by the gas $/MWh dispatch price; gas generation is more competitive than coal when
the ratio is a ratio greater than one and vice versa. All price data is for prompt month fuel contracts.
Source: Platts daily OTC coal prices and M2MS gas prices
daily change
BPA-Puget
IESO
CAISO
ERCOT
SPP
MISO
PJM
NYISO
NEISO
AESO
9.39
20.35
27.36
41.31
31.69
79.04
95.29
19.60
16.18
10.31
9.40
9.02
8.42
8.13
21.26 24.01 23.64 22.05
27.60 29.54 29.20 29.43
38.52 45.75 44.01 40.54
33.19 34.33 29.36 28.61
80.94 89.84 88.20 84.82
98.23 117.67 124.23 118.22
19.83 23.26 24.00 21.25
16.46 19.14 20.56 17.37
10.58 10.84 10.69 10.65
-0.29
-1.59
0.23
-3.47
-0.75
-3.38
-6.01
-2.75
-3.19
-0.04
-3.44
-6.73
0.79
-7.88
-2.55
-3.83
-4.84
-11.46
-15.52
-0.37
Five day forecast

8.41
8.44
21.81 21.68
29.48 29.24
37.15 37.17
27.60 27.08
83.15 81.76
109.24 102.13
20.76 20.36
17.11 17.02
10.70 10.79
8.12
19.13
26.66
36.37
27.87
75.56
90.22
18.29
15.44
10.33
8.37
8.48
19.50 22.25
26.51 29.07
40.41 40.00
31.51 31.82
83.15 91.16
94.64 111.71
18.09 20.73
15.05 16.85
10.36 10.73
season
6.67
9.40
20.10
24.01
22.45
29.54
36.65
45.75
29.70
34.33
79.04
89.84
95.23 122.82
18.52
23.26
14.59
19.14
10.01
10.84
season average
8.64
7.68
21.43 22.26
26.82 28.73
40.68 42.20
31.74 30.43
82.34 87.09
105.85 110.05
20.08 21.71
16.45 17.99
10.45 10.60
0.96
-0.83
-1.91
-1.52
1.31
-4.75
-4.20
-1.63
-1.54
-0.15
Seasons are defined as: Summer (June August), Fall (September November), Winter (December February), and Spring (March May).
Source: Platts
www.platts.com
www.twitter.com/PlattsPower
ELECTRIC POWER
12.50
-3.73
-6.65
-3.60
4.30
-5.45
-3.82
-7.51
-8.56
-1.42
MegaWatt daily
News
el Nio, CPP, litigation big factors in 2016: experts

El Nio, the Clean Power Plan, organized wholesale power market
expansion and litigation about demand response are among the most
important factors likely to influence power markets in 2016, according
to industry observers.
"Weather volatility will continue to drive the energy markets to alltime lows and all-time highs as we continue to see 1-in-100-year
weather events more commonplace," said Adam Sinn, an Aspire
Commodities power trader based in Houston.
Nick Cioll, chief financial officer at Sperian Energy, a Las Vegasbased retail electricity provider, called 2016 "a very important inflection
point in the energy industry with what is shaping up as a perfect
storm for prices and production and weather conditions."
"With El Nio, we will likely come out of winter at near or record
highs in natgas storage for that time of year, and that will push the
natgas complex below post-2008-recession levels," Cioll said in an
email. "The world economy will continue to slow, and oil will head
toward $30 as well. I am guessing both in June. This will bankrupt
some significant producers."
The low in energy prices would coincide with an overall business
cycle low in prices and a longer-term commodity cycle low "that will be
with us for years," Cioll said.
Meanwhile, regulatory issues rank high for probable big power
market issues in 2016 for Eric Smith, Tulane Energy Institute associate
director. "I think the most important story will be the outcome of initial
NEWS
legal filings by the various states seeking the end of the CPP
regulation," Smith said in an email.
The US Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan calls
for cutting carbon dioxide emissions from the existing generation fleet
to 32% below 2005 levels by 2030, with interim CO2 reductions to be
done by 2022.
Several states, companies and trade groups have asked the DC
Circuit Court of Appeals to stay the rule until legal challenges alleging
that the rule exceeds EPA authority are decided.
"I suspect the actual [court] response will be to require moderate
modification but not to eliminate the regulation or invalidate the
underlying law," Smith said in an email Monday. "This would follow from
the results of other attacks on executive action by this administration."
Court to rule on FeRC's Order 745

Another heavily litigated issue is whether the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission has the authority to regulate demand
response in organized wholesale power markets, known as the case of
Electric Power Supply Association, et al. v. FERC. Robert King, president
of the Austin, Texas-based consultancy Good Company Associates,
called this case before the US Supreme Court "the most important
story of 2016 and the one with the most impact on energy markets."
"If demand response is relegated to state policy/regulation, and the
3000-plus utilities become the market for DR, it will morph as an
industry," King said in an email. "I dont think it will go away, but it may
morph into a direct-to-consumer play at the residential level, in which
case, markets will lose control of it like they have roof-top solar."
Megawatt Daily
MEGAWATT DAILY
Volume 21 / Issue 3 / Wednesday, January 6, 2016
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MegaWatt daily
During oral arguments before the Supreme Court in October, the

justices appeared evenly divided, and a split decision would uphold the
lower court's vacatur of FERC's relevant Order 745, which would limit
demand-response regulation to state jurisdictions.
expanding Cal-isO 'the game changer'

On expanding organized wholesale power markets, PacifiCorp and
the California Independent System Operator signed a memorandum of
understanding in April to explore the idea of creating a regional ISO.
Gary Ackerman, Western Power Trading Forum executive director,
has said that he thought this was the most important development in
2015, and that he thinks the PacifiCorp/Cal-ISO integration's progress
would be the biggest story of 2016.
"When it was announced, few people expected it, and the rest of us
were simply amazed," Ackerman said.
The California Legislature passed a bill that allows the expansion of
Cal-ISO outside the state. PacifiCorp has utility customers in California,
Idaho, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.
An October study of the benefits of integrating the two systems
showed that overall customers would benefit by $3.4 billion to $9.1
billion over 20 years."If PacifiCorp does the deal, then NV Energy is sure
to follow suit since the two utilities are joined at the hip of Warren
Buffet," Ackerman said. "Thats the game changer for 2015, if not the
decade to come."
NV Energy in December integrated into the energy imbalance
market shared by Cal-ISO and PacifiCorp, and Puget Sound Energy and
Arizona Public Service are slated to join the EIM in October.
PacifiCorp and Cal-ISO are developing stakeholder processes to
help determine what tariff and policy changes would be needed, which
may dominate western market talks in 2016. FERC and the Cal-ISO
Board of Governors would need to approve those changes before
PacifiCorp seeks regulatory approval in the states where it operates.
Cal-ISO and PacifiCorp expect these steps may be done by late 2018 or
2019.
NEWS
power plant near Spring City in southeastern Tennessee, TVA

spokesman Scott Brooks said Tuesday.
The 1,150-MW unit, the first new nuclear unit in the 21st Century,
was licensed in October and fueled in December, and it is expected to
come on line by June, Brooks said.
"It shows that it's possible to bring on new nuclear units," Brooks
said. "It certainly helps keep our fuel costs stable."
Mark Watson
Northeast power grid endures first cold snap

The New England grid challenged, some say, by a lack of sufficient
natural gas pipeline capacity for power generation during periods of frigid
temperatures fared well on Monday and Tuesday as the six-state region
experienced its first cold snap of the 2015-16 winter season.
Temperatures fell to the single digits or teens across most of New
England on Monday night and Tuesday morning, and the resulting
increase in power demand to an unexpectedly high 18,087 MW at
7:40 a.m. Tuesday pushed the hourly locational marginal price to
$360/MWh between 7 a.m. and 8 a.m.
System demand and power prices then fell through the early
afternoon hours on Tuesday, but demand was expected to peak again
at about 19,200 MW early Tuesday evening.
"We can't talk about specific resources but, generally, because of
the cold weather, during the morning peak some units with varying
sources of fuel had a difficult time staying online or maintaining their
expected output," ISO New England spokeswoman Marcia Blomberg
said Tuesday in response to questions.
Blomberg said that "system operators issued a Master/Local
Control Center No. 2 (M/LCC 2) alert at about 6:30 a.m. ... It's an
operating procedure issued when an abnormal condition exists or is
anticipated. When market participants receive an M/LCC 2 alert, they
are expected to cease any routine maintenance, construction or test
activities on their equipment that could jeopardize the reliability of the
power system."
Texas wind likely to set new milestones

Fred Beach, University of Texas Energy Institute assistant director
for policy studies, said he expects another big factor likely to affect
power markets in 2016 is renewables. Beach said he expects 2016 will
be the year in which wind generation tops 50% of supply for 11 to 12
hours at a time on occasion in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas,
which "is quite a milestone" that he expects to "suppress" power prices
in 2016.
Beach also said he expects solar power to grow exponentially in
Texas in 2016, from about 200 MW to about 2,000 MW, "because there's
a lot of pent-up demand, and the [equipment and installation] prices
are getting to where they need to be."
In contrast, Beach said he expects about 4,000 MW of coal-plant
retirements in Texas in 2016, because of the confluence of low natural
gas prices and heavier regulatory burdens.
watts Bar 2 to stablize TVa fuel costs

Another big environment-related development expected to affect
the power market in 2016 is the commencement of commercial
operations at the Tennessee Valley Authority's Watts Bar 2 nuclear
NEW ENGLAND GAS AND POWER HUB PRICES

Vermont
New
Hampshire
New York 5-Jan
61.59
Dec ave.
27.58
Jun-Aug ave. 32.96
ISO-NE Internal Hub
ISO-NE NE Mass-Boston
Atlantic
Ocean
Angonquin City Gates
TGP Zn6 Dlvd

5-Jan
7.94
Dec ave.
2.36
Jun-Aug ave. 2.10
5-Jan
60.88
Dec ave.
27.46
Jun-Aug ave. 32.77
5-Jan
8.00
Dec ave.
2.28
Jun-Aug ave. 2.08
Connecticut
ISO-NE Connecticut
Rhode
Island
Massachusetts
5-Jan
59.71
Dec ave.
27.29
Jun-Aug ave. 33.40
Gas hub ($/MMbtu)

Power hub ($/MWh)
Note: Power prices represent average on-peak day-ahead prices
Source: ISO New England and Platts
MegaWatt daily
NEWS
ISO-NE NE-MASS AVERAGE ON-PEAK DAY-AHEAD PRICES

500
barrels of oil under the program. The operators of eight gas-fired units,
in turn, have lined up 1.278 million MMBtu of LNG.
($/MWh)
2015/2016
2014/2015
2013/2014
400
Housley Carr
300
aeP to co-fire Conesville per PPa settlement
200
100
0
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
Source: ISO New England
The ISO-NE spokeswoman said that system operators "also called

on the 26.5 megawatts of demand-response resources participating in
the Winter Reliability Program, or WRP." The WRP is a broad-ranging
effort by ISO-NE to mitigate challenges to wintertime grid reliability by,
among other things, giving generators with dual-fuel units incentives
to stockpile fuel oil so they can switch to oil-fired generation if pipeline
gas is not available, and encouraging operators of gas-fired units to
line up liquefied natural gas supplies, again as a fuel back-up.
"Regarding generators, the WRP doesn't determine which
generators are dispatched," Blomberg said. "The ISO doesn't invoke
specific procedures through the WRP in order to call on participating
generators; rather, we dispatch the system as usual, starting with the
lowest-cost resources first, to meet demand. The mix of resources
used in any given time period depends on price and availability, as well
as supplemental unit commitments made to ensure system stability."
She added, "The WRP simply ensures that oil-fired, dual-fuel
generators and generators that can access LNG have the fuel to run
when dispatched."
"Overall, the fuel diversity of the power generation fleet [in New
England] is helping to keep the lights on in the first real cold weather of
the New Year," Dan Dolan, president of the New England Power
Generators Association, said Tuesday.
According to the ISO-NE website, gas-fired units were providing
35% of New England's electricity during the Tuesday morning peak,
while nuclear units were providing 27%. Hydroelectric units, in turn,
contributed 11%, coal units 10%, renewable facilities 9%, and oil-fired
units 7%.
By midday, when demand had declined and the system was less
stressed, the share provided by gas-fired units had risen to 40% and
the shares provided by nuclear and coal units had risen to 30% and
11%, respectively. Hydro units were contributing 8% of New England's
power needs as of noon, as were renewable facilities, and the share
provided by higher-cost oil units was down to only 2%.
ISO-NE's Blomberg said that the WRP "is designed to help cover
some of the carrying costs of the fuel inventory purchased by
participating resources, and resources are compensated for any
unused fuel at the end of winter. The incentive payment rate set for
this winter is $12.90/Bbl [for oil]; the LNG equivalent is $2.15/MMBtu."
She said that the owners of 81 units capable of oil firing are
participating in the WRP this winter; they have stockpiled 2.965 million
American Electric Power says it plans to use natural gas in less than
two years to displace 50% of the coal-fired generation from two
roughly 400-MW units at the Conesville baseload power plant in Ohio.
The Columbus, Ohio-based company is committing to co-fire gas
with coal in Conesville Units 5 and 6 by December 31, 2017, as part of a
proposed settlement reached with several stakeholders, including the
Sierra Club and staff of the Ohio Public Utilities Commission, in a
controversial power purchase agreement case before the PUC.
Co-firing would reduce Conesville's air emissions and potentially lower
its operating costs, if natural gas remains less expensive than coal.
In a deposition filed on Monday with the commission, William Allen,
AEP managing director of regulatory case management, said sufficient
gas supplies are available in the area to co-fire the two Conesville units
with 50% gas.
Any co-firing in Ohio would be a first for an AEP coal plant,
company spokeswoman Terri Flora confirmed on Tuesday.
"We do not have any other co-fired units of coal and natural gas,"
she said in an email. "We do have a few units in the AEP fleet that use
oil for startup and a couple of gas units in the West fleet that are
co-fired with oil and gas."
AEP owns approximately 32,000 MW of generating capacity in the
US, including more than 18,000 MW coal-fired.
The PPA would provide the company a profit guarantee for its
2,671-MW ownership interest in four basesload coal plants: Conesville,
Cardinal, Stuart and Zimmer, plus its 423-MW share of the Ohio Valley
Electric Corp, operator of the Kyger Creek and Clifty Creek baseload
coal plants in Ohio and Indiana, respectively.
Refiring cost unclear

Allen was quizzed during the deposition by attorneys for the PJM
Power Providers, Retail Energy Supply Association, Electric Power
Supply Association and Constellation NewEnergy/Exelon Generation.
Allen said that, to his knowledge, AEP Generation Resources, the
company's competitive arm, has not concluded how much it would
cost to co-fire the Conesville units.
The recent conversion from coal to gas of 280-MW Unit 1 at the Big
Sandy power plant in eastern Kentucky cost about $60 million, he said,
but that included extending a gas pipeline. Big Sandy is operated by
AEP's Kentucky Power subsidiary.
While gas would back out coal at Conesville Units 5 and 6, the heat
rate of the units "would remain essentially unchanged," so the
efficiency of the units would be comparable to their current operation,
he added.
AEP also has agreed to retire, refuel or repower Cardinal Unit 1 and
Conesville Units 5 and 6 to only use gas by the end of 2029 and 2030,
respectively, a significant acceleration in halting coal burning at those
units.
The PUC on Monday began a weeklong public hearing on the
settlement, released December 14, in Columbus.
MegaWatt daily
NEWS
Ohio ePa will seek extension of september filing

Separately, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency plans to hold
a series of "regional listening sessions" in March on what the state
should include in a possible plan to comply with the Environmental
Protection Agency's new Clean Power Plan.
Heidi Greismer, an agency spokeswoman, said Tuesday the state
intends to seek a two-year extension from the required September
filing date. "Our intent is to put together a request for an extension at
this point," she said. "We are evaluating options."
The CPP requires Ohio to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 37%
below 2005 levels by 2030. It is the subject of lawsuit by attorneys
general in more than two-dozen states, including Ohio Attorney
General Mike DeWine.
Bob Matyi
California iOUs on track to meet RPs: PUC

California's investor-owned utilities are on track to meet the state's
renewable portfolio standard target of 33% by 2020, but their compliance
costs have steadily increased over the last decade, according to a report
released Monday by the California Public Utilities Commission.
After 2020, California's RPS climbs to 40% by 2025, 45% by 2028
and 50% by 2031.
In 2014, 28% of Pacific Gas & Electric's retail sales came from
renewable resources while Southern California Edison and San Diego
Gas & Electric hit 23.2% and 36.4% respectively, according to the
report filed every two years with the California Legislature.
Looking ahead, PG&E and SoCalEd are on track to getting 37% of
their sales from renewable resources in 2020 while SDG&E is expected
to get 43% of its sales from renewables, according to the report.
Renewable power purchase prices are dropping. PUC-approved
contracts averaged $74/MWh in 2014 and 2015, down from $81/MWh in
2013 and $96/MWh in 2012, the report said.
Although PPA pricing is falling, the IOUs compliance costs have
increased since 2005, according to the report. PG&E spent $107.09/
MWh on meeting the RPS in 2014, up from $61.95/MWh in 2005. During
the same period, SoCal Ed spent $92.57/MWh, up from $76.13/MWh,
and SDG&E spent $93.87/MWh, up from $48.73/MWh.
About 680 MW of renewables started operating in the first 11
months last year, bringing California's in-state RPS-eligible renewables
to about 21,700 MW, according to the report.
Also, renewable projects totaling about 11,800 MW have received
federal, state and local permits and could be operating soon, the report
said. Utilities have contracted for about 2,000 MW of the pending
capacity, with 1,080 MW, almost all solar, expected online this year,
according to the report.
Increasingly, renewable developers are able to successfully
navigate California's permitting process, according to the report. Due
to key environmental permitting initiatives taken on by regulatory
agencies across California, project viability risk from permitting has
decreased, the report said.
ladwP adds southwest transmission capacity

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power board
Tuesday approved plans to significantly expand the utility's capacity on
two major power lines to increase its access to renewable generation

in the Southwest while also boosting short-term market purchases at
the Palo Verde hub.
LADWP has reached agreements to buy from the M-S-R Public
Power Agency transmission capacity that is used to receive power
from the San Juan power plant in northwest New Mexico. M-S-R, based
in Modesto, California, and other utilities are exiting the power plant
where two units are slated to close at the end of 2017.
Under the $60 million deal, LADWP will increase its transmission
rights on the 500-kV Mead-Adelanto project and the 500-kV MeadPhoenix project, which are owned by the Southern California Public
Power Authority for the benefit of its members, including M-S-R and
the Los Angeles utility.
The MPP runs 256 miles from the Perkins switchyard near Phoenix
to the Marketplace substation near Boulder City, Nevada. The MAP runs
202 miles from the Marketplace substation to the Adelanto switching
station in southern California.
The two projects have three segments. LADWP's share of the MPPWestwing-Mead segment will increase to 332 MW from 110 MW. The
utility's share of the MPP-Mead-Marketplace segment will jump to
314.6 MW and its stake in the MAP-Marketplace-Adelanto segment will
climb to 539 MW from 226 MW, according to LADWP.
The contracts must be approved by the Los Angeles City Council.
Ethan Howland
Troubled foreign traders maintain Us operations

A merchant trader from Hong Kong and an investment bank from
Brazil have been under fire in recent months, but both have confirmed
that trading operations in US wholesale power and gas markets are
continuing.
The US affiliates of the two firmsthe Noble Group and BTG
Pactualhave been expanding their positions mainly in the PJM
Interconnection physical power trading markets, and have such
counterparties as Shell Energy North America, Duke Energy Ohio, PPL
Electric Utilities and PECO Energy.
The Noble Group has been selling assets to bolster its balance
sheet after accusations of accounting irregularities and the deep
slump of global commodity prices helped push the companys stock
value down 70% over the past year. Shortly before Christmas, the
merchant trading firm announced the sale of Noble Agri, its agricultural
unit, to Chinese grain trader Cofco, for $750 million.
However, on December 29, Moodys Investors Service downgraded
the firm to Ba1, one notch below investment grade, because of
concerns over the companys liquidity and low levels of profitability
and consistent negative cash flow.
In a statement acknowledging Moodys rating action, the firm
lamented that the sale of the agricultural unit was not taken into
account, and said, It is unfortunate that this transaction has
seemingly, in our view, been outweighed by Moodys negative view of
the commodity producer segment.
The company said, As an asset-light supply chain manager, the
current environment is opportunity rich and plays to our strengths,
while the low price environment substantially reduces the working
capital required to support our business.
MegaWatt daily
NEWS
CAISO
ERCOT (1)
ISONE
MISO
NYISO
PJM
SERC
WECC
66,496
NA
603,820
134,555
21,277
2,493,385
303,320
221,742
47,442
NA
540,835
130,898
36,211
1,505,375
51,200
34,300
326,334
NA
608,488
69,488
56,637
1,326,669
92,071
89,338
NA
378,975
37,705
18,031
1,105,168
510,738
23,485
NA
57,148
19
10,379
386,304
387,155
Total
3,844,594
2,346,261
2,479,686
2,139,954
864,490
(1) Noble Americas is active in ERCOT but no data is available.

Source of Data: FERC data compiled by Platts
On Monday, Stephen Brown, Noble spokesman in Hong Kong, said

by email that the Noble Group still had an investment grade rating from
Standard & Poors and Fitch. He also confirmed that energy commodity
trading by its US affiliate, Noble Americas, and specifically power and
gas trading in the US, has continued undeterred.
Pactual has been selling assets to raise cash following a wave of

client withdrawals after its founder and CEO was alleged to be part of a
corruption scandal. He was arrested in late November, then released to
house arrest in mid-December after a suspected co-conspirator told
authorities he lied about the bankers involvement.
On Monday, Pactual, which saw CEO Andre Esteves replaced in a
subsequent management shuffle in mid-December, confirmed the sale
of a debt-collection company to Brazilian Bank Itau for approximately
$165 million.
BTG Pactual Commodities has been trading in the US since late
2014, and, perhaps ironically, has hired numerous traders from Noble
Americas.
There has been some speculation among market participants that
the trading operations could be put up for sale. While not addressing
that issue, on Tuesday an outside PR firm confirmed that BTG
Pactual [Commodities] is still trading from its offices in Stamford,
Connecticut and Houston, Texas.
Noble americas jumps in sales ranking

In the third quarter of 2015, Noble Americas, which encompasses
the power and natural gas wholesale trading operations, was ranked 61
in Megawatt Dailys ranking of 536 wholesale power sellers, a jump
from 70th the year prior. The firm sold 3.84 million MWh in Q3 2015,
which was up 64% compared to the third quarter of 2014.
Like a number of other trading firms, Noble does not report its
sales of wholesale power in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas
market, though it is known to be an active trader in ERCOT.
According to data the company has filed with the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission, its sales in PJM totaled 2.49 million MWh, or
65% of its total, while the ISO New England market, where it got 15.7%
of its sales, was the firms second most active.
Of its total sales, Noble Americas Gas & Power sold 1.84 million
MWh in 12 transactions at PJM hubs, according to data the firm filed
with FERC. Its biggest transaction was 633,612 MWh sold to PECO
Energy. According to the electric quarterly report data, Noble sold the
power to PECO for $67.90/MWh, which equates to $43 million in
revenue.
2015 Q3
2015 Q2
2015 Q1
2014 Q4
779,673
291,914
154,351
45,388
70.98
70.04
71.35
67.87
167.1%
89.1%
240.1%
NA
(1) BTG Pactual first reported sales in Q4 2014.

(2) All sales are in PJM and most sales are requirements service (load) to various utilities.
Source: FERC data compiled by Platts.
The second largest transaction in the quarter was a sale of

386,058 MWh to Jersey Central Power & Light, at $83.05/MWh, which
equates to $32 million.
selling under requirements service contracts

BTG Pactual, meanwhile, was a much smaller player than Noble in
the wholesale power market in the third quarter, but one that was on
the rise.
It formed its US and European commodities trading group in 2013 and
staffed both operations with numerous former Noble Americas traders.
Its first quarter of US power trading was in the fourth quarter of
2014. In the first quarter of 2015 sales jumped 240%, then 89.1% in the
second quarter over the first quarter. In the third quarter, it was up
167% quarter over quarter.
The firm has taken a conservative approach to power trading.
Except for sales to PJM Settlement, all sales are under requirements
service contracts with utilities in PJM. This is power to serve load for
customers that have not switched to a competitive supplier.
According to its EQR data, BTG Pactual Commodities sold a total of
779,672 MWh of power in the third quarter of 2015. Its largest sale in
the third quarter was 226,290 MWh to PECO Energy at roughly $66.00/
MWh, or about $15 million.
Jeffrey Ryser
isO-Ne defends solar in iCR calculation

ISO New England on Tuesday reiterated its call for the Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission to dismiss arguments against the way it
calculated its installed capacity requirement for upcoming auctions.
The ICR is used to ensure enough capacity is procured to meet
New Englands resource adequacy and reliability needs. Specifically, it
is a measure of the installed resources projected to be necessary to
satisfy New Englands peak demand forecast and maintain sufficient
reserve capacity.
ISO-NE, with stakeholder input, calculates the ICR and related values,
such as local sourcing requirements and maximum capacity limits, for
each capacity commitment period ahead of forward capacity auctions.
Its latest calculations of the ICR incorporated behind-the-meter
solar resources not reflected in historical loads into assumptions about
expected system conditions, which resulted in a reduction in
forecasted load.
The New England Power Generators Association, the NRG

Companies and Dominion Resources took issue with this change in
modelling to determine the ICR, filing protests with FERC.
MegaWatt daily
Generators argued that ISO-NE failed to convene a full stakeholder

process before pursuing such a change and that the grid operator
should have proposed the methodology for including solar resources
as a tariff revision requiring FERC approval. They added that ISO-NE
overlooked the market and operational challenges that would come
with incorporating solar resources into the calculation of the ICR as a
reduction in load.
In a filing with FERC Tuesday, ISO-NE again said these arguments
were without merit and should be dismissed by the commission.
ISO-NE pointed to comments it submitted to FERC December 16, in
which it explained that the inclusion of solar resources in the ICR
calculation was directed by FERC in an order issued January 2, 2015.
That order, which approved the ICR and related values for ISO-NEs
FCA 9, asked the grid operator to look into including distributed
generation into the ICR calculation in time for these factors, if deemed
appropriate, to be reflected in the ICR for FCA 10.
The commission recognized the ISOs commitment to work with
stakeholders to explore whether and how [photovoltaic] resources that
had not been captured through other forward capacity market
mechanisms should impact ICR calculations based on the PV forecast,
ISO-NE asserted last month.
isO-Ne says new tariff language unwarranted for iCR calculation

The grid operator argued that accounting for solar resources as a
reduction in forecasted load did not warrant inclusion in or revision of
the ISOs tariff.
The reduction in the load forecast to account for [behind-themeter not embedded in load] PV is another instance of evolution of the
load forecast, ISO-NE said. Consumers are spending money to
behave in a different way, i.e. they are spending money to install solar
panels and, accordingly, those installations result in a reduction to the
load forecast that the ISO has to account for.
ISO-NE stressed that just like it was not necessary to add tariff
language for the inclusion of the effect of the federal appliance
efficiency standards in the load forecast in 2009, it is not necessary
to add tariff provisions to reflect the reduction in the load forecast that
results from BTMNEL PV resources.
The grid operator added that contrary to the assertions of the
protesters, the reduction in the load forecast to account for BTMNEL
PV was fully vetted in the stakeholder process. ISO-NE said it worked
with stakeholders for more than 10 months, including presentations
before the Reliability Committee, discussions with the Planning
Advisory Committee and failed attempts by NEPGA to substantiate
purported conflicts with the FCM during Markets Committee meetings.
ISO-NE pointed out in Tuesdays filing that the New England Power
Pools Participants Committee voted 80.97% in favor of the ICR and
related values calculated with solar in mind for the annual
reconfiguration auctions.
isO-Ne seeks approval of proposed iCR values by month-end

ISO-NE submitted the ICR for FCA 10 scheduled to take place in
February to procure capacity for the 2019-20 capability year, which
begins June 1, 2019 with solar resources included in the calculation
in November (ER16-307). A later filing in December (ER16-446) used the
same calculation to determine ICR for the 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19
NEWS
Nox Annual
NOx Seasonal
SO2 Group 1
SO2 Group 2
ICE
Dec16 V15
Dec17 V15
Dec18 V15
Dec16 V16
Dec17 V16
Dec18 V16
Dec16 V17
Dec17 V17
$/st
2015 Range
$/st
2016 Range
97.50
177.50
1.00
4.00
85.00-110.00
155.00-200.00
1.00-5.00
3.00-7.00
97.50
177.50
1.00
4.00
85.00-110.00
155.00-200.00
1.00-5.00
3.00-7.00
Settlement
Volume
7.72
7.72
7.72
7.72
7.72
7.72
7.72
7.72
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative is a carbon cap-and-trade program for power generators in nine
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US states. One RGGI allowance is equivalent to one short ton of CO2. The
volume listed is the number of futures contracts traded. Each futures contract represents 1,000 RGGI
allowances.
annual reconfiguration auctions.

The proposed net ICR for FCA 10 is 34,151 MW, which reflects a 390
MW reduction due to the incorporation of behind-the-meter solar
resources.
ISO-NE intends to hold annual reconfiguration auctions in March,
August and June for the 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 delivery years,
respectively.
The calculated net ICR is 33,152 MW for 2016-17; 33,442 MW for
2017-18; and 33,883 MW for 2018-19.
Modeling solar resources as a reduction to the load forecast was
primarily responsible for a 413 MW decrease in ICR from the level
approved for the 2017-18 FCA, and a 306 MW drop in ICR from the 201819 FCA approved level. The ICR for the 2016-17 reconfiguration auction
was 224 MW higher than the approved ICR for the 2016-17 FCA due to
higher generating resource forced outage rate assumptions despite
reduced demand expectations from the use of solar resources.
ISO-NE has asked FERC to approve the proposed ICR for FCA 10
with a January 9 effective date, and accept the ICR values for the
annual reconfiguration auctions with a January 30 effective date.
Jasmin Melvin
National Grid affiliate Niagara Mohawk expects to have all solar arrays
installed by November for its Buffalo, New York project to demonstrate
the benefits to the grid of physically connecting 100 rooftop solar
generation projects.
The utilitys implementation plan for the project was made public
Tuesday by the Public Service Commission. The PSC directed the
states utilities to develop demonstrations projects, which regulators
said are an important step in implementing the Reforming the Energy
Vision policy changes.
Under REV, New York is spurring clean energy innovation and
customer choice by aligning markets and regulations to promote more
efficient use of energy, deeper penetration of renewable resources and
a wider development of distributed energy resources.
The demonstration projects include private investment from third-
MegaWatt daily
party partners and are intended to demonstrate how new revenue

streams can be created from the market, rather than from the
traditional rate base.
Niagara Mohawks previously approved project expects to deliver
two main types of benefits: grid efficiency for the local distribution
system and energy bill savings for low-to-moderate income
customers.
Hopefully we can find a way to make solar attractive and viable in
an underserved community, Steve Brady, a company spokesman, said
Tuesday in an interview.
The solar units will be installed at no cost to participating
customers and the power produced by the 100 solar units will be
captured in front of the meter, aggregated and sold into the grid. The
proceeds will be distributed to participating customers through bill
credits. The utility also will provide energy efficiency services to
participants.
The demonstration not only provides the technical conditions
necessary for exploring grid efficiency, but also allows for the
opportunity to engage the residential community as a whole, which will
strengthen relationships and foster energy awareness, the company
said in the implementation plan.
The in front of the meter project is located within a concentrated
geographic area and along a common electric feeder close to the load,
which will allow the company to measure the grid benefits, the utility
said.
The project might provide substation relief that could be critically
important, Brady said, noting that it is difficult to expand substations
in the older urban neighborhood where the project will be located. It
could show what sort of relief a solar application can provide, he said.
The demonstration will test for reduction of energy losses,
improved voltage monitoring and control and the monitoring and
control of reactive power.
Trying to improve the power factor

Each solar panel will have its own DC to AC micro-inverter to allow
the system to be more resistant to the effects of partial shading and
will allow for reactive power generation when the panels are not
producing power at their maximum output.
This capability will improve the power factor at each home with
rooftop solar and on the distribution circuit and will result in improved
upstream system efficiencies, the company said. There will be
multiple power factor control methods to test the effectiveness of
each micro-inverter to compare the efficiency benefits and the
projected costs.
The project also will test the potential for scalability across similar
communities.
Niagara Mohawks partners in the project are Buffalo Niagara
Medical Campus, General Electric Global Research, the New York
Energy Research and Development Authority and Solar Liberty, a
western New York solar PV installer.
Governor Andrew Cuomos REV initiative and recently announced 50
NEWS
OUTAGES
Plant/Operator
Cap
Fuel
Northeast
Darlington-3/OPG
Lake Superior/Brookfield
Lennox-3/OPG
Pickering-6/OPG
state
status
Return
875
120
525
520
Prairie Island-2/NMC
shut
n
g
g
n
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
Ont.
MO
PMO
MO
MO
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
12/23/15
11/04/14
09/04/15
09/21/15
604
Minn.
MO
Unk
12/18/15
Limestone-1/NRG
Martin Lake-2/Luminant
Martin Lake-3/Luminant
Sequoyah-1/TVA
Watts Bar-2/TVA
830
750
750
1152
1179
c
c
c
n
n
Texas
Texas
Texas
Tenn.
Tenn.
MO
MO
MO
MO
MO
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
11/30/15
02/01/15
06/18/15
12/26/15
01/04/15
west
Belden Hydro/PG&E
Colgate Hydro-1/PCWA
Encina-4/Cabrillo Power
Kerckhoff-1/PG&E
Pittsburg-5/Mirant
Redondo-6/AES
Sutter Agg/Calpine
119
176
300
153
312
175
525
h
h
g
h
g
g
g
Calif.
Calif.
Calif.
Calif
Calif.
Calif
Calif.
PMO
PMO
PMO
PMO
MO
PMO
MO
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
Unk
10/28/15
11/01/15
01/03/16
11/02/15
01/03/16
01/04/16
12/20/15
Daily generation outage references: O=unplanned maintenance outage; RF=refueling outage;

PMO=planned maintenance outage; Unk= unknown; OA=offline/available. Fuels: Nuclear=n;
Coal=c; Natural gas=g; Hydro=h ; Wind=w
Sources: Generation owners, public information and other market sources.
percent renewable energy mandate have put New York out front as one of
the most promising markets for distributed solar in the country, Rick
Umoff, SEIA's regulatory affairs manager of state affairs, said in an email.
New York policymakers are implementing key regulatory reforms
to attract investment and develop a modern, clean and reliable electric
grid based on distributed and renewable resources, Umoff said.
Mary Powers
TVa finds damage in Tennessee nuclear unit

Tennessee Valley Authority's 1,186-MW Sequoyah-1 nuclear reactor
remained shut Tuesday after workers discovered damage to the main
electrical generator that require it be disassembled for repairs,
spokesman Jim Hopson said.
The unit, located in Soddy-Daisy, Tennessee, shut December 26 to
investigate a problem in the generator cooling system, officials said
last week.
Preliminary indications are that there was damage to internal
generator components, Hopson said. The generator "will be
disassembled to allow for a thorough investigation and repair of any
damaged parts," he said.
Once repairs are complete, the unit will be returned to service, said
Hopson, without giving an estimate for the completion of the work.
The adjacent 1,181-MW Sequoyah-2 is unaffected and was operating
at full output Tuesday.
William Freebairn
MegaWatt daily
NEWS
Northeast PoWer MarKets

NORTHeasT day aHead POweR PRiCes
spark spread
On-Peak
ISONE Internal Hub
ISONE NE Mass-Boston
ISONE Connecticut
NYISO Zone G
NYISO NYC Zone
NYISO West Zone
NYISO Capital Zone
IINIM00
IINNM00
IINCM00
INYHM00
INYNM00
INYWM00
INYCM00
66.06
66.55
65.39
51.08
52.50
19.53
48.24
11894
12051
14888
12796
13151
11634
17740
27.18
27.89
34.65
23.14
24.56
7.78
29.21
-0.59
0.28
12.68
3.18
4.59
-0.61
15.61
5.18
4.96
5.68
4.06
5.13
-9.39
-0.54
8.5
8.1
9.5
8.6
10.8
-32.5
-1.1
47.23
47.63
46.29
33.93
34.22
25.14
36.14
34.84
34.83
34.21
28.13
28.39
12.99
30.53
66.06
66.55
65.39
51.08
52.50
38.01
48.78
51.41
51.79
50.51
38.86
39.34
22.73
40.63
77.52
78.05
76.19
61.38
62.72
38.82
66.44
-26.11
-26.26
-25.68
-22.52
-23.38
-16.09
-25.81
-33.7
-33.6
-33.7
-36.7
-37.3
-41.4
-38.8
Off-Peak
ISONE Internal Hub
ISONE NE Mass-Boston
ISONE Connecticut
NYISO Zone G
NYISO NYC Zone
NYISO West Zone
NYISO Capital Zone
IINIP00
IINNP00
IINCP00
INYHP00
INYNP00
INYWP00
INYCP00
68.68
68.96
67.85
41.73
42.05
16.63
49.84
9006
9313
10358
6830
6882
9529
13832
15.30
17.13
22.00
-1.04
-0.72
4.41
24.62
-22.83
-19.90
-10.76
-31.59
-31.27
-4.31
6.60
6.99
6.69
7.60
5.19
5.30
-8.53
10.26
11.3
10.7
12.6
14.2
14.4
-33.9
25.9
38.47
38.73
37.68
23.96
24.16
15.10
26.74
29.15
29.37
28.57
21.21
21.42
9.71
24.35
68.68
68.96
67.85
41.73
42.05
25.16
49.84
48.40
48.70
47.49
29.23
29.46
16.25
33.42
58.38
58.53
57.32
46.42
46.58
29.41
51.61
-9.98
-9.83
-9.83
-17.19
-17.12
-13.16
-18.19
-17.1
-16.8
-17.1
-37.0
-36.8
-44.7
-35.2
NORTHEAST AVG. DAY-AHEAD/REAL-TIME PEAK PRICE SPREAD

20
($/MWh)
10
0
-10
-20
-30
NEPOOL Mass Hub

NYISO Zone A
NYISO Zone G
NYISO Zone J
-40
23-Dec
26-Dec
28-Dec
30-Dec
02-Jan
04-Jan
Source: Platts
NORTHEAST PLATTS M2MS FORWARD CURVE: ON-PEAK

80
($/MWh)
East NY ZnJ
East NY ZnG
West NY ZnA
Mass Hub
70
60
50
40
30
Feb-16
May-16 Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17 Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Source: Platts
NORTHEAST PLATTS M2MS LOCATIONAL SPREADS: ON-PEAK

60
($/MWh)
NYISO ZnG/NEPOOL Mass Hub
NEPOOL Mass Hub/PJM West
NYISO ZnG/PJM West

NYISO ZnJ/NYISO ZnG
NYISO G/NYISO A
40
20
0
-20
Feb-16
May-16 Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
Source: Platts
May-17 Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Northeast day-ahead off-peak power prices jumped above on-peak prices

Tuesday as off-peak heat rates were trending up with low temperatures
forecast below seasonal norms ranging from 8-21 degrees.
Mass Hub off-peak was at a premium to on-peak prices as it rose
$1 to $62/MWh for Wednesday delivery on the
IntercontinentalExchange as 150 MW traded. Meanwhile, on-peak
dropped $4.75 to around $57.50/MWh as 550 MW traded.
Mass Hub balance-of-the-week on-peak slipped $3.25 to about
$41.75/MWh on ICE. Next week-on-peak was around $57/MWh.
Algonquin Gas Transmission city-gate lost $1.975 to about $6.025/
MMBtu for Wednesday delivery on ICE.
The ISO New England expected peakload near 18,000 MW
Wednesday, down 6% from Tuesday's predicted peak, and Thursday's
peak was forecast at 17,300 MW.
New York ISO day-ahead locational marginal prices were mixed
Tuesday with load predicted lower and spot gas prices.
NYISO Zone G Hudson Valley on-peak added $4 to be near $51/MWh
for Wednesday delivery. NYISO Zone J New York City on-peak moved
up $5.25 to about $52.50/MWh. NYISO Zone A West tumbled $9.50 to
almost $19.50/MWh.
Transco Zone 6 New York spot natural gas fell $3.518 to $63.532
cents/MMBtu.
NYISO projected peakload to hit around 21,275 MW Wednesday,
down 1.4 % from Tuesday's predicted peak, and 20,800 MW Thursday.
Northeast forward power prices were weaker Tuesday as regional
gas basis dropped along with NYMEX gas futures.
Mass Hub on-peak February on-peak was down 25 cents to about $64.75/
MWh by 2:30 pm EST on the IntercontinentalExchange. March on-peak lost
about $2.25 to around $47.50/MWh. April on-peak slipped $5.50 to about
$38.25/MWh. July-August on-peak eased $1.25 near $49/MWh.
Zone A on-peak February fell almost $4.75 to $39.50/MWh. Zone G
on-peak July-August lost $2 to about $45.50/MWh.
NYMEX February gas futures dropped less than 1 cent to around
$2.325/MMBtu. Algonquin city-gate February gas basis fell 73.1 cents
to $3.959 /MMBtu, while Transco Zone 6 NY February gas basis lost
47.5 cents to $3.525/MMBtu.
MegaWatt daily
NEWS
spark spread
On-Peak
PJM AEP Dayton Hub
PJM Dominion Hub
PJM Eastern Hub
PJM Northern Illinois Hub
PJM Western Hub
MISO Indiana Hub
MISO Minnesota Hub
IPADM00
IPDMM00
IPEHM00
IPNIM00
IPWHM00
IMIDM00
IMINM00
32.05
45.36
45.82
29.93
39.83
26.05
22.70
15840
16355
14862
12585
24663
14171
9595
17.89
25.95
24.24
13.28
28.53
13.18
6.14
7.77
12.08
8.82
1.39
20.45
3.99
-5.69
-2.53
-2.32
3.35
-3.04
-3.55
-3.05
2.84
-7.3
-4.9
7.9
-9.2
-8.2
-10.5
14.3
28.86
32.74
29.08
28.03
30.95
26.17
22.07
24.23
24.99
19.91
23.67
24.27
23.10
18.76
34.58
47.68
45.82
32.97
43.38
29.83
24.57
29.16
35.72
33.41
27.98
32.89
25.79
21.22
34.91
43.43
50.73
31.42
41.13
33.37
27.18
-5.75
-7.71
-17.32
-3.44
-8.24
-7.58
-5.96
-16.5
-17.8
-34.1
-10.9
-20.0
-22.7
-21.9
Off-Peak
PJM AEP Dayton Hub
PJM Dominion Hub
PJM Eastern Hub
PJM Northern Illinois Hub
PJM Western Hub
MISO Indiana Hub
MISO Minnesota Hub
IPADP00
IPDMP00
IPEHP00
IPNIP00
IPWHP00
IMIDP00
IMINP00
28.64
54.04
59.63
18.40
41.80
21.91
18.27
13582
17370
16119
7484
24436
11441
7486
13.88
32.26
33.73
1.19
29.83
8.50
1.19
3.34
16.71
15.24
-11.10
21.27
-1.07
-11.02
0.63
10.36
18.17
-8.07
4.48
-0.77
4.61
2.2
23.7
43.8
-30.5
12.0
-3.4
33.7
22.03
25.80
22.45
21.28
23.73
21.09
17.39
19.40
19.49
16.78
18.40
18.99
19.68
13.66
28.64
54.04
59.63
26.47
41.80
22.68
18.92
23.68
32.25
30.10
21.24
27.96
21.20
16.82
28.64
36.26
40.19
23.69
33.60
25.57
20.10
-4.96
-4.01
-10.09
-2.45
-5.64
-4.37
-3.28
-17.3
-11.1
-25.1
-10.3
-16.8
-17.1
-16.3
PJM/MISO AVG. DAY-AHEAD/REAL-TIME PEAK PRICE SPREAD

12
($/MWh)
8
4
0
PJM AD Hub
PJM NI Hub
PJM West Hub
MISO Minnesota
MISO Indiana
30-Dec
02-Jan
-4
-8
23-Dec
26-Dec
28-Dec
04-Jan
Source: Platts
PJM/MISO PLATTS M2MS FORWARD CURVE: ON-PEAK

60
($/MWh)
PJM AEP/Dayton
PJM NI Hub
MISO Ind. Hub
PJM West
50
40
30
Feb-16
May-16 Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17 Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Source: Platts
PJM/MISO PLATTS M2MS LOCATIONAL SPREADS: ON-PEAK

20
15
($/MWh)
PJM West/MISO Ind. Hub
PJM West/PJM AD Hub
PJM West/PJM NI Hub

PJM West/NYISO ZnA
10
5
0
-5
-10
Feb-16
May-16 Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
Source: Platts
10
May-17 Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Mid-Atlantic and Midwest day-ahead power prices were mostly weaker

Tuesday, although PJM West off-peak moved above on-peak prices
influenced by frigid weather and rising heat rates.
PJM West Hub off-peak climbed $6 to around $39/MWh, as
on-peak dropped $5.25 to about $37.50/MWh for Wednesday delivery
on the IntercontinentalExchange.
The PJM Interconnection predicted peak demand to reach 112,675
MW Wednesday, down 4% from Tuesday, with Thursday expected to hit
108,325 MW. December peakload averaged 105,025 MW, down 9% from
December 2014.
Texas Eastern M-3 day-ahead natural gas dropped 73.1 cents to
$12.684/MMBtu.
Indiana Hub on-peak was down $2 to about $28.25/MWh for
Wednesday delivery on ICE. Off-peak fell $2.75 to about $25.75/MWh. Balweek on-peak slipped 50 cents to $27.25/MWh as off-peak was around
$22.25/MWh. Next-week on-peak lost $2.50 to about $35.75/MWh.
The Midcontinent ISO forecast peak demand to hit 88,275 MW
Wednesday, down 2% from Tuesday's predicted peak, and Thursday's
load was forecast to reach 85,825 MW.
AD Hub on-peak was down $4.75 to roughly $31.25/MWh and offpeak fell $1 to about $28.75/MWh.
NI Hub on-peak traded down $3.50 to around $29.25/MWh, while
off-peak shed $9.25 to about $19.75/MWh.
Mid-Atlantic forwards were weaker Tuesday as regional gas basis
fell along with NYMEX gas futures.
PJM West Hub on-peak February financial futures slipped $1.25 to about
$42/MWh on the IntercontinentalExchange by 2:30 pm EST. PJM West Hub
on-peak is $11.75 below where the February 2015 on-peak package traded last
January. On-peak March lost 75 cents to roughly $39.50/MWh.
NYMEX February gas futures dropped less than 1 cent to around
$2.325/MMBtu, while Texas Eastern M-3 February gas basis was down
7.21 cents to 86.8 cents/MMBtu.
AD Hub on-peak February sank more than 50 cents to around
$36.25/MWh on ICE. Indiana Hub on-peak February gained 25 cents to
about $32.25/MWh. NI Hub on-peak February shed 50 cents to roughly
$32.50/MWh.
MegaWatt daily
NEWS
SOUTHEAST POWER MARKETS
spark spread
On-Peak
MISO Texas Hub
MISO Louisiana
SPP North Hub
SPP South Hub
ERCOT Houston Hub
ERCOT North Hub
ERCOT South Hub
ERCOT West Hub
IMTXM00
IMLAM00
ISNOM00
ISSOM00
IERHM00
IERNM00
IERSM00
IERWM00
24.74
24.24
17.93
24.40
20.52
20.50
20.47
20.50
10781
10519
7701
10838
8967
8987
8986
8855
8.68
8.11
1.63
8.64
4.50
4.53
4.52
4.29
-2.80
-3.41
-10.01
-2.62
-6.94
-6.87
-6.87
-7.28
-0.97
-1.74
2.27
-2.59
-2.43
-2.50
-2.34
-2.55
-3.8
-6.7
14.5
-9.6
-10.6
-10.9
-10.3
-11.1
23.75
23.90
20.92
25.85
21.76
21.76
21.67
21.79
22.82
23.02
15.66
22.75
19.04
19.04
19.03
19.04
26.45
26.19
21.11
26.99
24.00
24.07
23.85
24.18
24.26
24.27
18.96
24.57
21.46
21.48
21.37
21.52
29.99
30.03
25.26
28.57
27.37
27.11
27.21
27.17
-5.73
-5.76
-6.30
-4.00
-5.91
-5.63
-5.84
-5.65
-19.1
-19.2
-24.9
-14.0
-21.6
-20.8
-21.5
-20.8
Off-Peak
MISO Texas Hub
MISO Louisiana
SPP North Hub
SPP South Hub
ERCOT Houston Hub
ERCOT North Hub
ERCOT South Hub
ERCOT West Hub
IMTXP00
IMLAP00
ISNOP00
ISSOP00
IERHP00
IERNP00
IERSP00
IERWP00
20.67
20.64
12.00
20.98
13.60
13.59
13.58
13.59
8762
8788
4971
9132
5764
5855
5761
5760
4.16
4.20
-4.90
4.90
-2.92
-2.66
-2.92
-2.93
-7.64
-7.54
-16.97
-6.59
-14.71
-14.26
-14.71
-14.72
-1.47
-1.00
-1.33
-3.70
-3.80
-3.81
-3.79
-3.83
-6.6
-4.6
-10.0
-15.0
-21.8
-21.9
-21.8
-22.0
20.90
20.87
17.32
23.06
17.76
17.77
17.73
17.77
20.21
20.35
12.00
20.75
13.60
13.59
13.58
13.59
22.14
21.64
18.19
24.68
18.73
18.73
18.70
18.73
20.98
20.92
15.50
22.37
17.07
17.07
17.03
17.08
27.27
26.52
18.70
24.53
20.79
20.78
20.85
20.86
-6.29
-5.60
-3.20
-2.16
-3.72
-3.71
-3.82
-3.78
-23.1
-21.1
-17.1
-8.8
-17.9
-17.9
-18.3
-18.1
ERCOT AVG. DAY-AHEAD/REAL-TIME PEAK PRICE SPREAD

10
($/MWh)
0
-10
-20
West Hub
North Hub
-30
Houston Hub
South Hub
-40
-50
23-Dec
26-Dec
28-Dec
30-Dec
02-Jan
04-Jan
Source: Platts
ERCOT PLATTS M2MS FORWARD CURVE: ON-PEAK

80
($/MWh)
ERCOT - Houston
ERCOT - West
ERCOT - North
ERCOT - South
70
60
50
40
30
20
Feb-16
May-16 Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17 Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Source: Platts
ERCOT PLATTS M2MS LOCATIONAL SPREADS: ON-PEAK

6
($/MWh)
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Feb-16
North Hub/West Hub

North Hub/North Hub
May-16 Aug-16
Houston Hub/South Hub

Houston Hub/North Hub
Nov-16
Feb-17
Source: Platts
11
May-17 Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Electric Reliability Council of Texas day-ahead power prices fell

Tuesday with lower demand projections and weaker natural gas prices.
ERCOT North Hub on-peak fell $2.75 to around $19.75/MWh for
Wednesday delivery on IntercontinentalExchange. ERCOT North Hub
off-peak was down $2 to about $15.50/MWh.
Spot natural gas at Houston Ship Channel fell 12.6 cents to $2.260/
MMBtu on ICE. Platts unit Bentek Energy forecast gas-fired heating
demand to drop to 3.3 Bcf/d Wednesday from 3.7 Bcf/d for Tuesday,
partially offset by a nearly 350 MMcf/d increase in gas-fired power burn.
ERCOT forecast system load to peak around 47,150 MW Tuesday at
8 am CST. Hourly load during peak hours was expected to average
41,525 MW. On Wednesday, demand was expected to peak around
40,450 MW at 8 am, with hourly load during peak hours averaging
37,725 MW.
North Hub balance-of-the-day on-peak for Tuesday traded 1,150
MW at about $18.50/MWh, down about $4.25 from Monday's day-ahead
price. Real-time day-ahead on-peak was down $2.75 to about $19.75/
MWh. 1,750 MW traded on-screen and 750 MW in block volume was
cleared on the exchange.
In the Southeast, day-ahead power prices moved higher as heating
demand remained supported by the lingering cold across much of the region.
Into Southern on-peak was up $1 to about $31/MWh for Wednesday
delivery.
Spot natural gas at Transco Zone-3 fell 8.1 cents to about $2.309/
MMBtu on ICE.
The high temperature in Atlanta was forecast at 49 degrees
Wednesday, 5 degrees below normal. The low was expected at 23
degrees, 13 degrees below normal.
ERCOT forward prices were flat to down Tuesday as NYMEX
February gas futures settled 0.9 cent lower to $2.325/MMBtu.
ERCOT North Hub March-April on-peak fell 50 cents to about $25/
MWh on IntercontinentalExchange at around 2:30 pm EST. May
on-peak was flat at about $25.25/MWh.
In the back-half, July-August on-peak dropped $2.25 to about
$52.75/MWh. September on-peak fell 50 cents to about $28/MWh.
Fourth quarter on-peak was down 25 cents to about $25.25/MWh.
MegaWatt daily
NEWS
WEST POWER MARKETS
spark spread
On-Peak
NP15
SP15
ZP26
COB
MEAD
MID-C
Palo Verde
ICNGM00
ICSGM00
ICZGM00
WEABE20
AAMBW20
WEABF20
WEACC20
33.70
33.88
32.88
24.54
24.00
23.84
22.75
12166
13513
13114
9895
9581
9340
9286
14.31
16.33
15.33
7.18
6.47
5.97
5.60
0.46
3.79
2.79
-5.22
-6.06
-6.79
-6.65
0.77
1.35
0.90
-2.92
-1.50
-2.88
-1.25
2.3
4.2
2.8
-10.6
-5.9
-10.8
-5.2
31.91
32.32
31.17
28.16
26.86
27.25
25.15
29.82
29.53
29.03
24.54
24.00
23.84
22.75
33.81
33.88
33.19
29.46
26.50
28.43
24.00
31.72
31.57
30.95
27.47
25.19
26.75
23.44
35.22
35.41
34.29
26.77
27.28
23.07
25.84
-3.50
-3.84
-3.34
0.70
-2.09
3.68
-2.40
-9.9
-10.8
-9.7
2.6
-7.7
16.0
-9.3
Off-Peak
NP15
SP15
ZP26
COB
MEAD
MID-C
Palo Verde
ICNGP00
ICSGP00
ICZGP00
WEACJ20
AAMBQ20
WEACL20
WEACT20
24.96
25.08
24.60
22.00
19.50
20.41
18.50
8831
9689
9503
8871
7784
7996
7551
5.18
6.96
6.48
4.64
1.96
2.54
1.35
-8.96
-5.98
-6.46
-7.76
-10.56
-10.22
-10.90
0.29
0.33
0.31
-3.00
-1.50
-3.00
-1.75
1.2
1.3
1.3
-12.0
-7.1
-12.8
-8.6
28.27
28.69
28.06
27.49
24.07
26.08
22.75
24.67
24.75
24.29
22.00
19.50
20.41
18.50
29.49
30.34
29.47
29.00
24.50
27.10
22.75
26.97
27.26
26.70
26.57
22.83
25.22
21.38
29.75
29.70
29.13
24.16
26.66
19.74
24.21
-2.78
-2.44
-2.43
2.41
-3.83
5.48
-2.83
-9.3
-8.2
-8.3
10.0
-14.4
27.8
-11.7
CAISO AVG. DAY-AHEAD/REAL-TIME PEAK PRICE SPREAD

60
spot power retreats with demand
($/MWh)
50
40
NP15
SP15
ZP26
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
23-Dec
26-Dec
28-Dec
30-Dec
02-Jan
04-Jan
Source: Platts
WESTERN PLATTS M2MS FORWARD CURVE: ON-PEAK

40
($/MWh)
35
30
25
20
15
Feb-16
Mid-C
SP15
May-16 Aug-16
Palo Verde
NP15
Nov-16
Feb-17
May-17 Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
Source: Platts
WESTERN PLATTS M2MS LOCATIONAL SPREADS: ON-PEAK

12
($/MWh)
10
8
6
4
2
0
SP15/Palo Verde
SP15/NP15
SP15/Mid-C
-2
-4
Feb-16
May-16 Aug-16
Nov-16
Feb-17
Source: Platts
12
May-17 Aug-17
Nov-17
Feb-18
West day-ahead power prices were lower Tuesday, pressured by both

lower demand projections and weaker spot gas.
SP15 on-peak shed $2.25 to about $31/MWh for Wednesday delivery on
the IntercontinentalExchange. SP15 off-peak lost $1.25 to below $25/MWh,
while the on-peak next-week package was near $31.75/MWh.
PG&E city-gate spot gas fell 8.4 cents to $2.761/MMBtu and SoCal
city-gate gas eased 2.9 cents to $2.696/MMBtu.
The California ISO projected demand to slip from almost 30,100 MW
Tuesday to about 29,825 MW Wednesday and 30,150 MW Thursday.
Temperature highs in Sacramento were expected within normal
range in the lower 50s Wednesday. The low was forecast nearly 10
degrees above average in the upper 40s.
Palo Verde on-peak gave up $1.25 to $22.75/MWh, while off-peak
was $1.75 lower near $18.50/MWh.
Phoenix temperature highs were forecast about 5 degrees under
normal in the lower 60s Tuesday through Thursday. The low was
expected 5 degrees above normal in the upper 40s Wednesday.
Mid-Columbia on-peak lost $2.75 to around $24/MWh, while offpeak sank $3 to about $20.50/MWh.
Portland temperatures were forecast within normal range Wednesday,
with a high in the mid-40s and a low expected at 35 degrees.
West forward power prices were down Tuesday afternoon amid
flatness in NYMEX gas futures and regional gas basis.
Mid-Columbia February on-peak slipped 50 cents to $23/MWh, trading
25 MW on the IntercontinentalExchange around 2:30 pm EST. Mid-C
February off-peak was unchanged near $20.25/MWh. March on-peak
dropped 75 cents to below $18.50/MWh, trading 50 MW and clearing 50
MW. Second quarter on-peak fell 50 cents to about $16.50/MWh.
Palo Verde on-peak March slipped 25 cents to about $21/MWh,
while Q2 on-peak tumbled $1.75 to around $20/MWh.
SP15 February on-peak eased 50 cents to $29.50/MWh, trading 50
MW on ICE.
NYMEX February gas futures edged 0.9 cents lower to $2.325/
MMBtu. PG&E city-gates February gas basis eased half a cent to 47
cents/MMBtu, while SoCal February gas basis retreated 2 cents to 21
cents/MMBtu.
MegaWatt daily
NEWS
Bilaterals
spark spread
On-Peak
Florida
GTC, Into
Southern, Into
TVA, Into
VACAR
AAMAV20
WAMCJ20
AAMBJ20
WEBAB20
AAMCI20
30.00
31.75
31.00
30.25
32.50
12876
13700
13376
12900
10046
13.69
15.53
14.78
13.84
9.85
2.04
3.94
3.19
2.11
-6.32
-2.00
0.75
1.00
0.25
-0.75
-6.3
2.4
3.3
0.8
-2.3
23.68
23.04
21.75
23.00
24.43
30.00
30.00
29.50
30.00
32.50
32.00
31.75
31.00
30.25
33.25
31.17
30.92
30.17
30.08
32.75
35.02
36.48
35.82
35.88
38.68
-3.85
-5.56
-5.65
-5.80
-5.93
-11.0
-15.2
-15.8
-16.2
-15.3
Off-Peak
Florida
GTC, Into
Southern, Into
TVA, Into
VACAR
AAMAO20
WAMCC20
AAMBC20
AAJER20
AAMCB20
25.75
30.00
28.00
27.00
30.75
11052
12945
12082
11514
9505
9.44
13.78
11.78
10.59
8.10
-2.21
2.19
0.19
-1.14
-8.07
0.00
1.00
0.00
-0.75
1.25
0.0
3.4
0.0
-2.7
4.2
21.57
20.54
19.96
20.39
20.96
21.75
20.00
19.50
19.75
20.50
25.75
30.00
28.00
27.75
30.75
23.08
23.17
22.33
22.29
23.71
27.56
28.38
27.93
27.77
29.48
-4.48
-5.21
-5.60
-5.48
-5.77
-16.3
-18.4
-20.1
-19.7
-19.6
spark spread
On-Peak
Mid-C
John Day
COB
NOB
Palo Verde
Mona
Four Corners
Pinnacle Peak
Westwing
MEAD
WEABF20
WEAHF20
WEABE20
WEAIF20
WEACC20
AARLQ20
WEABI20
WEAKF20
WEAJF20
AAMBW20
23.84
24.75
24.54
24.25
22.75
22.50
22.75
23.25
23.50
24.00
9340
9696
9895
9500
9286
9615
9499
9490
9592
9581
5.97
6.88
7.18
6.38
5.60
6.12
5.99
6.10
6.35
6.47
-6.79
-5.88
-5.22
-6.38
-6.65
-5.58
-5.99
-6.15
-5.90
-6.06
-2.88
-3.00
-2.92
-3.00
-1.25
-1.50
-1.00
-1.25
-1.00
-1.50
-10.8
-10.8
-10.6
-11.0
-5.2
-6.3
-4.2
-5.1
-4.1
-5.9
27.25
28.25
28.16
28.00
25.15
26.36
25.04
26.18
25.64
26.86
23.84
24.75
24.54
24.25
22.75
22.50
22.75
23.25
23.50
24.00
28.43
29.50
29.46
29.25
24.00
25.25
25.00
24.50
24.50
26.50
26.75
27.75
27.47
27.25
23.44
24.06
23.88
23.94
24.00
25.19
23.07
24.02
26.77
25.70
25.84
25.82
26.30
26.65
26.28
27.28
3.68
3.73
0.70
1.55
-2.40
-1.76
-2.42
-2.71
-2.28
-2.09
16.0
15.5
2.6
6.0
-9.3
-6.8
-9.2
-10.2
-8.7
-7.7
Off-Peak
Mid-C
John Day
COB
NOB
Palo Verde
Mona
Four Corners
Pinnacle Peak
Westwing
MEAD
WEACL20
WEAHL20
WEACJ20
WEAIL20
WEACT20
AARLO20
WEACR20
WEAKL20
WEAJL20
AAMBQ20
20.41
21.50
22.00
21.75
18.50
19.00
18.50
19.50
19.00
19.50
7996
8423
8871
8521
7551
8120
7724
7959
7755
7784
2.54
3.63
4.64
3.88
1.35
2.62
1.73
2.35
1.85
1.96
-10.22
-9.13
-7.76
-8.88
-10.90
-9.08
-10.24
-9.90
-10.40
-10.56
-3.00
-3.00
-3.00
-3.00
-1.75
-1.50
-1.25
-1.50
-1.50
-1.50
-12.8
-12.2
-12.0
-12.1
-8.6
-7.3
-6.3
-7.1
-7.3
-7.1
26.08
27.07
27.49
27.54
22.75
23.00
23.11
23.21
23.14
24.07
20.41
21.50
22.00
21.75
18.50
19.00
18.50
19.50
19.00
19.50
27.10
28.00
29.00
29.25
22.75
23.50
23.00
23.00
23.25
24.50
25.22
26.25
26.57
26.50
21.38
22.00
21.71
21.83
21.83
22.83
19.74
20.67
24.16
22.40
24.21
22.65
24.54
24.58
24.50
26.66
5.48
5.58
2.41
4.10
-2.83
-0.65
-2.83
-2.75
-2.67
-3.83
27.8
27.0
10.0
18.3
-11.7
-2.9
-11.5
-11.2
-10.9
-14.4
Package
southern, into
Bal-week
Bal-month
Bal-month
Next-week
Next-week
Next-week
Trade date
Range
01/05
01/05
01/04
01/05
01/04
12/30
26.25-26.75
28.25-28.75
29.25-29.75
31.75-32.25
31.25-31.75
25.75-26.25
13
Package
Trade date
Range
Bal-week
Bal-week
Bal-week
Bal-month
Bal-month
Bal-month
Bal-month
Bal-month (off-peak)
Next-week
Next-week
Next-week (off-peak)
Next-week (off-peak)
01/05
01/04
12/31
01/05
01/04
12/31
12/30
01/05
01/04
12/31
12/30
01/05
01/04
01/05
01/04
23.25-23.75
25.75-26.25
25.25-25.75
23.25-24.00
23.75-24.75
24.00-24.50
23.50-24.00
21.00-21.50
21.75-22.25
22.00-22.50
22.00-22.50
24.00-24.50
25.50-26.00
20.75-21.25
24.00-24.50
Palo Verde
Bal-month
Bal-month
Bal-month
01/05
01/04
12/31
23.00-23.50
24.00-24.50
23.50-24.00
MEGAWATT DAILY
WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 6, 2016
NEWS / PRICING COMMENTARY / MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
NORTHEAST POWER MARKETS

NYISO SUPPLY MIX (GWh/d)
Daily change
Category
Total Generation
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Other
31-Dec
357.41
105.13
15.69
134.67
150.71
1-Jan
343.89
127.48
19.3
134.67
107.36
2-Jan
355.59
108.28
19.13
134.67
139.95
3-Jan
338.49
127.69
18.7
134.67
118.01
4-Jan
338.53
168.14
27.48
134.67
79.13
% Share
83%
41%
7%
33%
19%
1-Jan
267.47
104.85
97.8
21.4
11.65
86.07
2-Jan
268.9
109.72
97.8
23.53
14.32
80.55
3-Jan
270.14
113.49
97.8
20.58
7.5
86.23
4-Jan
297.43
130.72
97.8
39.92
8.82
94.09
% Share
80%
35%
26%
11%
2%
25%
Chg
0.04
40.45
8.78
0
-38.88
% Chg
0.0%
32.0%
47.0%
0.0%
-33.0%
Season
Min
311.78
82.53
5.69
94.43
71.69
Max
392.47
173.1
28.48
134.67
203.64
Season average
2016
349.31
114.74
14.95
128.98
148.34
2015
388.17
144.01
26.62
132.83
188.56
Chg
-38.86
-29.27
-11.67
-3.85
-40.22
% Chg
-10.0%
-20.0%
-44.0%
-3.0%
-21.0%
ISONE SUPPLY MIX (GWh/d)

Daily change
Category
Total Generation
Gas
Nuclear
Coal
Wind
Other
31-Dec
279.49
108
97.8
21.2
6.4
101.34
Chg
27.29
17.23
0
19.34
1.32
7.86
% Chg
10.0%
15.0%
0.0%
94.0%
18.0%
9.0%
Season
Min
242.61
85.39
90.83
11.76
1.64
76.34
Max
336.95
152.29
97.8
54.56
16
126.18
Season average
2016
280.65
117.75
96.69
19.29
7.47
93.97
2015
305.36
113.03
97.24
31.62
6.34
123.98
Seasons are defined as: Summer (June - August), Fall (September - November), Winter (December - February), and Spring (March - May). Source: Platts
ISONE TEMPERATURE
NYISO TEMPERATURE
Source: Custom Weather
ISONE & NYISO LOAD PER DEGREE
Source: Platts
ISONE & NYISO NUCLEAR GENERATION OUTAGES
(Average daily temp 0 F )

Source: NRC
ISONE-NYISO INTERTIE TRANSMISSION E-W
ISONE POWER BURN VS. GAS BASIS
Source: ISONE
Source: Platts
Chg
-24.71
4.72
-0.55
-12.33
1.13
-30.01
% Chg
-8.0%
4.0%
-1.0%
-39.0%
18.0%
-24.0%
MEGAWATT DAILY
PJM/MISO POWER MARKETS

PJM SUPPLY MIX (GWh/d)
Daily change
Category
Total Generation
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Other
31-Dec
1-Jan
2-Jan
3-Jan
4-Jan
1,950.1 1,953.57 2,022.34 2,040.58 1,991.31
425.94
417.15
413.74
420.63
475.11
765.08
773.55
813.6
820.79
774.85
800.65
800.65
800.8
800.25
801.11
-41.57
-37.77
-5.8
-1.09
-59.75
% Share
100%
24%
39%
40%
-3%
Season
Chg % Chg
Min
Max
-49.27
-2.0% 1,662.71 2,158.01
54.48
13.0%
374.44 475.11
-45.94
-6.0%
574.61 862.99
0.86
0.0%
715.98 801.11
-58.66 5382.0% -109.27 151.43
Season average
2016
1,998.9
424.26
768.1
773.36
33.18
2015
2,396.83
376.02
1,035.03
780.96
218.17
Chg
-397.93
48.24
-266.93
-7.6
-184.99
% Chg
-17.0%
13.0%
-26.0%
-1.0%
-85.0%
MISO SUPPLY MIX (GWh/d)

Daily change
Category
Total Generation
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
Other
31-Dec
1-Jan
2-Jan
3-Jan
4-Jan
1,822.42 1,779.21 1,781.43 1,780.03 1,823.19
355.32
294.65
297.98
317.43
355.47
823.9
741.6
793.27
829.9
818.68
300.7
300.36
297.16
303.6
304.94
148.66
253.95
214.57
132.56
93.03
159.26
143.35
138.79
154.62
211.02
% Share
102%
20%
46%
17%
5%
12%
Chg
43.16
38.04
-11.22
1.34
-39.53
56.4
% Chg
2.0%
12.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
-30.0%
36.0%
Season
Min
Max
1,601.6 1,942.23
270.35 448.56
700.66 944.04
169.98 310.07
23.75 253.95
113.3 214.71
Season average
2016
1,793.15
350.38
828.05
287.78
140.47
154.95
2015
1,958.37
311.18
1,078.24
288.63
124.35
140.15
PJM TEMPERATURE
MISO TEMPERATURE
PJM & MISO LOAD PER DEGREE
Source: Platts
MISO GENERATION MARKET SHARE - GAS VS. WIND
(Average daily temp 0 F )

Source: Platts
PJM/MISO COAL-TO-GAS DISPATCH PRICE RATIOS
PJM POWER BURN VS. GAS BASIS
Source: Platts
Source: Platts
Chg
-165.22
39.2
-250.19
-0.85
16.12
14.8
% Chg
-8.0%
13.0%
-23.0%
0.0%
13.0%
11.0%
MEGAWATT DAILY
SOUTHEAST POWER MARKETS

ERCOT SUPPLY MIX (GWh/d)
Daily change
Category
Total Generation
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Wind
Other
31-Dec
892.38
370
379.89
123.33
54.15
-34.99
1-Jan
890.04
371.36
379.69
123.33
79.82
-64.15
2-Jan
912.75
362.07
386.66
123.33
44.1
-3.4
3-Jan
851.68
339.76
364.2
123.33
58.92
-34.52
4-Jan
907.06
366.83
384.73
123.33
50.11
-17.93
% Share
100%
40%
42%
14%
6%
-2%
Chg
55.38
27.07
20.53
0
-8.81
16.59
% Chg
7.0%
8.0%
6.0%
0.0%
-15.0%
-48.0%
Season
Min
762.15
258.26
335.42
87.57
30.87
-242.3
Max
968.45
415.54
408.03
123.33
300.07
45.82
Season average
2016
841.35
319.53
364.32
100.67
134.79
-77.96
2015
886.08
331.62
384.76
123.25
94.58
-60.24
ERCOT TEMPERATURE
SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURE
ERCOT LOAD PER DEGREE
Source: Platts
ERCOT GENERATION MARKET SHARE - GAS VS. WIND
(Average daily temp F)

Source: Platts
SOUTHEAST COAL-TO-GAS DISPATCH PRICE RATIOS
ERCOT POWER BURN VS. GAS BASIS
Source: Platts
Source: Platts
Chg
-44.73
-12.09
-20.44
-22.58
40.21
-17.72
% Chg
-5.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-18.0%
43.0%
29.0%
MEGAWATT DAILY
SPP POWER MARKETS

SPP GENERATION MIX (GWh/d)
Daily change
Category
Total Generation
Coal
Natural Gas
Wind
Nuclear Power
Hydro
Diesel
31-Dec
707.83
400.7
176.91
43.53
62.36
23.86
0.49
1-Jan
670.82
360.46
137.38
87.82
62.42
22.68
0.04
2-Jan
673.3
380.31
133.22
76.21
62.43
21.13
0
3-Jan
672.9
382.55
137.85
68.24
62.44
21.82
0
4-Jan
744.57
411.29
172.72
71.02
62.4
27.14
0
% Share
-55%
23%
10%
8%
4%
--
Chg
71.67
28.74
34.87
2.78
-0.04
5.32
0
% Chg
11.0%
8.0%
25.0%
4.0%
0.0%
24.0%
0.0%
Season
Min
59.02
26.1
13.47
12.24
5.2
1.54
0
Season average
Max
744.57
417.99
241.62
205.52
62.52
27.14
0.77
2016
656.63
324.17
138.86
109.73
60.63
22.8
0.43
2015
645.06
375.28
127.21
79.73
60.01
2.79
0.05
Seasons are defined as: Summer (June - August), Fall (September - November), Winter (December - February), and Spring (March - May). Source: SPP
SPP TEMPERATURE
SPP ACTUAL WIND GENERATION VS. FORECAST
Source: SPP
SPP LOAD PER DEGREE
Source: Platts
SPP GENERATION MARKET SHARE - GAS VS. WIND
(Average daily temp F)

Source: Platts
SPP COAL-TO-GAS DISPATCH PRICE RATIOS
SPP POWER BURN VS. GAS BASIS
Source: Platts
Source: Platts
Chg % Chg
11.57
2.0%
-51.11 -14.0%
11.65
9.0%
30 38.0%
0.62
1.0%
20.01 717.0%
0.38 760.0%
MEGAWATT DAILY
WEST POWER MARKETS

CAISO GENERATION MIX (GWh/d)
Daily change
Category
Total Generation
Thermal Power
Nuclear Power
Hydro
Power Imports
Solar PV
Solar Thermal
Wind
Bio + Geo
31-Dec
597.15
269.89
54.76
32.67
149.76
33.64
3.29
15.99
37.15
1-Jan
562.72
243.1
54.68
33.95
143.4
33.25
3.26
14.24
36.85
2-Jan
564.82
251.99
54.64
35.31
152.23
24.95
0.11
8.62
36.98
3-Jan
551.87
238.86
54.61
34.34
148.65
21.08
0
17.56
36.77
4-Jan
598.67
289
54.62
37.6
157.38
13.53
2.76
8.32
35.45
% Share
-48%
9%
6%
26%
2%
-1%
6%
Chg
46.8
50.14
0.01
3.26
8.73
-7.55
2.76
-9.24
-1.32
4-Jan
306.02
208.22
97.69
0.11
192.81
113.22
% Share
-68%
32%
----
% Chg
8.0%
21.0%
0.0%
9.0%
6.0%
-36.0%
0.0%
-53.0%
-4.0%
Season
Min
542.2
178.42
10.67
26.39
141.29
13.53
0
2.62
33.58
Max
651.87
315.07
54.76
44.78
201.13
35.3
3.29
70.96
37.19
Season average
2016
600.46
252.37
51.54
34.16
168.36
27.75
1.72
28.92
35.63
2015
581.1
239.49
51.45
32.82
181.34
23.79
1.22
14.86
36.13
Chg
19.36
12.88
0.09
1.34
-12.98
3.96
0.5
14.06
-0.5
% Chg
3.0%
5.0%
0.0%
4.0%
-7.0%
17.0%
41.0%
95.0%
-1.0%
BPA GENERATION, LOAD, and TRANSMISSION (GWh/d)

Daily change
Category
Total Generation
Hydro
Thermal Power
Wind power
Load
Net Exports
31-Dec
316.16
201.59
98.35
16.22
191.16
125.02
1-Jan
304.94
194.7
96.65
13.59
190.03
114.91
2-Jan
313.56
204.92
96.84
11.8
197.03
116.59
3-Jan
309.81
209.95
98.77
1.08
203.27
106.58
Chg
-3.79
-1.73
-1.08
-0.97
-10.46
6.64
% Chg
-1.0%
-1.0%
-1.0%
-90.0%
-5.0%
6.0%
Season
Min
36.98
24.07
12.87
0.03
26.14
10.84
Max
359.55
221.9
101.89
94.39
203.27
180.26
Season average
2016
297.07
185.72
84.96
26.38
167.99
129.01
Seasons are defined as: Summer (June - August), Fall (September - November), Winter (December - February), and Spring (March - May). Source: CAISO & BPA
CAISO TEMPERATURE
WESTERN NUCLEAR GENERATION OUTAGES
Source: NRC
YEAR-TO-DATE WEST POWER BURN
Source: Platts
BPA TEMPERATURE
BPA DC LINE TRANSMISSION FLOWS N-S
Source: BPA
BPA AC LINE TRANSMISSION FLOWS N-S
Source: BPA
2015
333.88
259.08
55.57
19.23
158.54
175.07
Chg
-36.81
-73.36
29.39
7.15
9.45
-46.06
% Chg
-11.0%
-28.0%
53.0%
37.0%
6.0%
-26.0%

Megawatt Jan 6

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MEGAWATT DAILY

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

iNside THis issUe

el Nio, CPP, litigation big factors in 2016: experts

ISO-NE defends solar in ICR calculation

Weather could push natgas prices lower

Northeast power grid endures first cold snap

aeP to co-fire Conesville per PPa settlement

California iOUs on track to meet RPs: PUC

Regional weather trends

isO Price locations

COAL-TO-GAS POWER PRICE RATIOS AT MAJOR TRADING HUBS

Troubled foreign traders maintain Us operations

Noble Americas and BTG Pactual Commodities power sales up

spot power retreats with demand in west

Five day forecast

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

el Nio, CPP, litigation big factors in 2016: experts

Court to rule on FeRC's Order 745

Megawatt Daily Questions? Email:

Manager North America Gas and Power Content

Spot Market Editors

Global Editorial Director, Gas and Power

Manager, Advertisement Sales

Copyright 2016 McGraw Hill Financial

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

During oral arguments before the Supreme Court in October, the

expanding Cal-isO 'the game changer'

power plant near Spring City in southeastern Tennessee, TVA

Northeast power grid endures first cold snap

Texas wind likely to set new milestones

watts Bar 2 to stablize TVa fuel costs

Copyright 2016 McGraw Hill Financial

NEW ENGLAND GAS AND POWER HUB PRICES

New York 5-Jan

ISO-NE Internal Hub

Angonquin City Gates

TGP Zn6 Dlvd

Gas hub ($/MMbtu)

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

ISO-NE NE-MASS AVERAGE ON-PEAK DAY-AHEAD PRICES

aeP to co-fire Conesville per PPa settlement

Source: ISO New England

The ISO-NE spokeswoman said that system operators "also called

Copyright 2016 McGraw Hill Financial

Refiring cost unclear

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Ohio ePa will seek extension of september filing

California iOUs on track to meet RPs: PUC

ladwP adds southwest transmission capacity

Copyright 2016 McGraw Hill Financial

two major power lines to increase its access to renewable generation

Troubled foreign traders maintain Us operations

Wednesday, January 6, 2016

(1) Noble Americas is active in ERCOT but no data is available.

On Monday, Stephen Brown, Noble spokesman in Hong Kong, said

Pactual has been selling assets to raise cash following a wave of

Noble americas jumps in sales ranking

Copyright 2016 McGraw Hill Financial

(1) BTG Pactual first reported sales in Q4 2014.

The second largest transaction in the quarter was a sale of

selling under requirements service contracts

isO-Ne defends solar in iCR calculation

The New England Power Generators Association, the NRG