Professional Documents
Culture Documents
HS Number: HS/025/14E
ISBN Number(Series): 978-92-1-132400-6
ISBN Number:(Volume) 978-92-1-132614-7
DISCLAIMER
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the
part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning
the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries, or regarding its economic system or degree of development. The analysis conclusions and rec-
ommendations of this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme or its Governing
Council.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Funding for the Hoi An, Viet Nam - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment was provided under the framework of One UN Fund in Viet
Nam in 2011, and the Cities and Climate Change Initiative.
Principal Authors: Tran Manh Lieu, Nguyen Thi Khang, Bui Nguyen Trung, Man Quang Huy, Vu Quoc Huy (Centre for Urban Studies,
Viet Nam National University)
Contributing Authors: Liam Fee, Do Minh Huyen, Ju Hyun Lee, Hoang Dinh Thien, Nguyen Quang
Team Leader: Nguyen Quang
Task Manager: Do Minh Huyen
Reviewers: Bernhard Barth, Maria Adelaida Antonette Mias-Cea, Tran Manh Lieu
Summarized by: Liam Fee, Maria Tomovic
Editor: Maria Tomovic
Design and Layout: Deepanjana Chakravarti
Special Thanks: Mai Trong Nhuan, Le Van Giang, Nguyen Van Dung, Staff of the Hoi An City Government
Contents
01 Introduction 01
2.1 Geography 02
2.2 Climate Profile, Natural Resources and Ecosystems 02
2.3 Population and Urbanization 03
2.4 Economy and Livelihoods 04
2.5 Governance Structure 05
List of Figures
Figure 1: Map of the wards of Hoi An 02
Figure 2: Housing locations in the city 03
Figure 3: Housing types in Hoi An (%) 04
Figure 4: Governance Structure 05
Figure 5: Assessment Framework 07
Figure 6: Process flow of the Hoi An Vulnerability Assessment 08
Figure 7: Areas likely to be inundated by floods in 2020 10
Figure 8: Areas likely to be inundated by floods in 2050 10
Figure 9: Potential land area inundated as a result of sea-level rise 11
Figure 10: Areas affected by saline intrusion 12
Figure 11: Areas affected by coastal and riverbank erosion 13
Figure 12: Percentage of roads affected by 1 metre flooding 15
Figures 13: Saline areas in Hoi An 18
Figures 14: Adaptive capacity questionnaire results 20
Figure 15: Vulnerability ‘Hotspots’ in Hoi An 26
Figure 16: Magnified view of An Hoi Hotspot Area 27
Figure 17: Magnified view of Phuoc Thang hotspot area 28
Figure 18: Magnified view of An My hotspot area 29
Figure 19: Magnified view of Phuoc Hoa hotspot area 30
List of Tables
Table 1: Projected increases in rainfall 09
Table 2: Sea-level rise projection 11
Table 3: Accumulated Impacts of Hazards 14
Table 4: Sensitivity to Erosion 15
Table 5: Sensitivity of the city’s drainage system 16
Table 6: Sensitivity to Erosion 17
Table 7: Combine Exposure and Sensitivity Ranking 19
Table 8: Adaptive Capacity Indicators by Ward 8 22
Table 9: Categorization of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptive
Capacity Rankings 24
Table 10: Assessment of exposure, sensitivity, adaptive Capacity
and Vulnerability 24
Table 11: Identifying Adaptation Options 31
Table 12: Flood Hazard 34
Table 13: Salinity 35
Table 14: Coastal Erosion 36
Table 15: Riverbank Erosion 37
Table 16: Storm 38
Table 17: Storm and Flooding 39
Table 18: Storm and Coastal Erosion 40
Table 19: Multi-hazards 41
Table 20: Exposure and Sensitivity and Adaptive Capacity 41
Table 21: Exposure and Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity, and
Vulnerability 42
01
Introduction
2.1 Geography day with a maximum tidal height (above mean sea-lev-
el) of 1.4 metres. During the rainy season, wave height
can reach three to four metres at a distance of 50 me-
Hoi An is located in central Viet Nam, around 25 kilo- tres from the shore. Saline intrusion becomes an issue
metres south of Danang in Quang Nam Province. It is during the dry season due to low river levels.
situated on a coastal plain, at the estuary of the Thu
Bon river basin, where the Thu Bon, De Vong and Co
Co rivers converge. The urbanized portion of the city
is situated at an elevation of between 0 to 15 metres 2.2 Climate Profile,
above sea level. The coastal areas and river basin are
characterized by low-lying elevations, with unstable Natural Resources and
topographic foundations, meaning they are prone to
erosion. The hydrological regime of the Thu Bon and Ecosystems
De Vong rivers highly influence the hydrological land-
scape of the city. When tides are high, the river levels
rise. At low tide, the rivers are able to empty water The average daily temperature in Hoi An is 25.6°C
into the sea. There are, on average, two high tides per with a relatively high humidity of 82 per cent. On aver-
Cam Ha De
Yo
ngR
HOI AN ive
r
Cam Chau Cua Dai
Tan An
Thanh Ha
Cam Pho Son Phong
Cam Thanh
Minh An
Th
uB
on
Riv Cam Nam
er
Cam Kim
Duy Xuyen
Source: UN-Habitat
Cam An
Cam Chau
Thanh Ha
Cam Thanh
Cam Nam
Cam Kim
N
Wards and Communes Border Housing Distribution River Transportation
Source: UN-Habitat
1
Quang Nam Provincial Department of Statistics, 2011
Tan Hiep
Cam Thanh
Cam Nam
Cam Kim
Cam Ha
Cam An
Cua Dai
Cam Chau
Son Phong
Thanh Ha
Cam Phong
Tan An
Minh An
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Source: UN-Habitat
2
UNDESA (2010). LINK Global Outlook (United Nations publication, p.57)
Quang Nam
People’s Committee
Steering committee
of Flood and Storm
Control and Search
and Rescue of
Other
Quang Nam
Dept. of Dept. of Departments
Dept. of Province
Agriculture Natural (Tourism,
Investment
and Rural Resources Education,
and Planning
Development and Industry and
Environment Trade,
Steering committee
Construction, etc
of Flood and Storm
Control of Hoi An
Cu Lao Cham
Marine
Hoi An People’s
Protection Area Steering committee
Committee
Management of Flood and Storm
Board Control of
Communes and
Wards
Communal
Subdivision
Source: UN-Habitat
3
The term commune is used in rural areas, whereas ward is used in urban areas.
Sea Wall
Photo © Nguyen Thi Khang
minus
Source: UN-Habitat
- Storms/typhoons
- Flooding
- Salinity
- Coastal/riverbank erosion
06 Analyse Sensitivity
Source: UN-Habitat
Scenario % B1 B2 A2 B1 B2 A2 B1 B2 A2
increase in
rainfall 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.2 3.2 4.1
As can be seen in table 1, the projected increases in er than three metres of water in 2020, compared to
rainfall are relatively minor, which means that the total 185.06 hectares by 2050 – they do show a substantial
area of inundation, according to geographic informa- increase in the depth of inundation. For example, of
tion systems maps prepared by the assessment team, the total flood prone area, 17.47 per cent will expe-
will not increase greatly. However the depth of inun- rience up to four metres of inundation in 2020, com-
dation is likely to increase, even with only incremental pared to 24.2 per cent in 2050. Flood forecasting re-
changes in rainfall. sults are calculated based on the MIKE _ GIS hydraulic
model and climate change scenarios applied to Hoi
Taking 2011 as the base year, figures 6 and 7 show An in 2020, 2050, 2100. The results show that a to-
the combined effect of flash flooding and river flood- tal area of 2912 hectares could be flooded by 2020,
ing according to mid-level projections. While they do rising to 2946 hectares by 2050 and 3204 hectares by
not show a significant increase in the total land area 2100, with depths of 1 to 4 metres.
flooded –from 167.85 hectares inundated with great-
4
Viet Nam Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment (2010). Second National Communication, p.62
Cam An
Cam Ha
Cam Nam
Cam Kim
Source: UN-Habitat
Cam An
Cam Ha
Cam Nam
Cam Kim
Source: UN-Habitat
Cam An
Cam Ha
Cam Chau
Tan An
Thanh Ha
Cam Pho
Son Phong Cam Thanh
Minh An
Cam Nam
Cam Kim
N Wards and Communes Houses Risk Areas Permanently Risk Areas Permanently
Border inundated by 2020 inundated by 2100
Source: UN-Habitat
5
Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment. Climate change and sea level rise scenario for Viet Nam. (2009)
6
Ministry of Natural Resource and Environment. Climate change and sea level rise scenario for Viet Nam. (2011)
Cam An
Cam Ha
Cam Nam
Cam Kim
N
Wards and Communes Risk Soil Area Affected Shallow Underground Water
Border Saline Intrusion Affected Saline Intrusion
Source: UN-Habitat
Cam An
Cam Ha
Cam Nam
Cam Kim
Source: UN-Habitat
Coastal Riverbank
Storms Flooding Salinity
erosion Erosion
Storms
Flooding
Salinity
Coastal
erosion
Riverbank
Erosion
Hazards whose combination can increase the significance/intensity of impacts
Source: UN-Habitat
7
Hoi An People’s Committee report (2007)
100
80
60
40
20
Cam An Cam Chau Cam Nam Cam Pho Cam Dai Minh An Son Phong Tan An Thanh Ha Cam Ha Cam Thanh Cam Kim
ward ward ward ward ward ward ward ward ward commune commune Commune
Main City Road Main Regional Road Secondary Road Total Road Network
Source: UN-Habitat
Housing and Erosion affecting housing and commer- In Cua Dai: erosion destroyed the village of Phouc Trach and
commercial cial buildings from Cam An to Cua Dai a row of villas of the Investment Development Joint Stock
buildings Company resort. Currently there are only 55 villas, housing
and hotels that have not yet been affected by erosion. How-
ever, if there is no measure to protect the coastal line, the
consequences will be serious in the next 3-5 year.
Roads and At Cua Dai: Erosion directly impacts the At Cua Dai: The road to the sea (100m) is being threatened.
embankments road and embankment (about 100m) It has been reinforced, but is showing signs of deterioration.
Ilmenite mine In Cam An: Erosion may affect traffic Erosion has destroyed a mine
At Cua Dai: erosion has a direct impact
on the Ilmenite mine minerals
Source: UN-Habitat
Suburban region
Cam Ha Average Very high
Thanh Ha Low Average
Cam Chau Average Very low
Cam Thanh Average Very low
Cam Kim Very low Very low
Cam Nam Very low Very low
Source: UN-Habitat
Beaches Erosion affects the entire coastal area from In Cua Dai, which has a 4 km coastline, 10 to 15 metres of
Can An to Cua Dai erosion occurs each year, rising to 20 metres per year in some
places.
Tourism At Cua Dai: Erosion can negatively affect At Cua Dai: Erosion can negatively affect the volume of tour-
the volume of tourists that visit the area. ists that visit the area.
Service activities At Cua Dai: Erosion can affect livelihoods At Cua Dai: loss of beach as a result of erosion, causing seri-
related to tourism ous damage relative to the livelihood of residents
In Cam An: Erosion may affect livelihoods In Cam An: No effects observed
Source: UN-Habitat
Source: UN-Habitat
Source: UN-Habitat
Flooding
2.74 2.283 3.38 3.80 3.26 3.40 3.24
Salinity
1.54 1.52 2.32 2.64 2.42 2.14 1.84
Coastal
Erosion
1.56 1.78 2.48 3.00 2.40 2.64 2.24
River Bank
Erosion
1.96 1.78 2.60 3.04 2.74 2.76 2.42
Storm
2.301 .96 3.02 3.68 3.38 3.36 3.16
3.4.1 Adaptive Capacity at the Policy The National Strategy on Climate Change Response
was approved by the Prime Minister at the end of
Level 2011. Viet Nam is anticipated to complete the devel-
opment of a system to monitor climate change and
At the national level, the government provides a legal sea level rise by 2015. By 2020, a comprehensive
framework using the following four policies: the Na- system of monitoring and forecasting of extreme cli-
tional Target Program for Climate Change Response, mate phenomena that meets international standards
the National Strategy for Climate Change Response, is expected to be completed. Other plans include the
the National Strategy for Natural Disaster Prevention percentage of forest land to be increased to 45 per
and the National Target Program on Energy Efficiency cent by 2020, in parallel with an improvement in for-
and Conservation. These four policies are used in addi- est quality and strengthened protection, management
tion to the first and second national communications and development of mangroves and wetland ecosys-
to the UNFCCC, which were submitted in 2003 and tems. In addition to the National Strategy on Climate
2010 respectively. Change Response, the Ministry of Natural Resources
and Environment also developed scenarios of climate
The strategic objectives of the National Target Program change and sea level rise for Viet Nam, which serve in
of Climate Change Response are to assess climate the development, planning and design process.
change impacts on all domains, sectors and localities
and to formulate feasible short-term and long-term Though Viet Nam has a long history of natural disas-
action plans in response to climate change. According ters, the National Strategy for Natural Disaster Preven-
to the National Target Program, the People’s Commit- tion is primarily retrospective – focusing on response,
tees of provinces, cities and districts are responsible rather than protection. The Ministry of Agriculture and
for preparing and implementing climate change re- Rural Development and the Central Committee for
sponse action plans.
Hoi An, like most cities in Viet Nam, still lacks an in-
stitutional body to coordinate the preparation and im-
plementation of climate change action plans, as well
as to ensure the link between these action plans and
existing interventions related to sustainable urban de-
velopment. Local officials are required by the National
Target Programme on Climate Change Response and
by the Government to complete both the Climate
Change Response Action Plan and the City Master
Plan. However, these are presently being done sepa- House in Cam Thanh
rately by different teams (Division of Natural resource Photo © UN Habitat / Alyssa Grinberg
and Environment and Division of Urban management,
8
Statistics Bureau of Hoi An, 2010 and Report of Hoi An Division of Health care, 2010.
Source: UN-Habitat
The assessment team utilized the analysis presented systematic, the following criteria were considered in
above in conjunction with city officials to identify ‘hot- identifying hotspot areas:
spot’ areas which are considered most vulnerable to
the negative impacts of climate change and, as such, • Areas exposed to multiple hazards;
are priorities for action. In order to make this analysis • Areas which are less economically developed and/or
Cam Ha Cam An
An Dinh
- An Hoi
Cua Dai
Thanh Ha Tan An
Cam Chau An My
Son Phong
Cam Thanh
Minh An
Cam Nam
Phuoc Thang
Cam Kim
N
Diem Nong Hotspots
Source: UN-Habitat
Cam Pho
An Dinh
Minh An
An Hoi
N
Hot spots Heritage houses Risk areas affected saline Risk areas inundated
intrusion by 2020 by 2020
Source: UN-Habitat
Cam Nam
Phuoc Thang
Cam Kim
N
Hot spots Risk areas affected saline intrusion by 2020 Risk areas inundated by 2020
Source: UN-Habitat
Cam An
Cam Ha
Cam Dai
An My
Cam Chau
Cam Thanh
Tan An
Son Phong
N
Hot spots Risk areas affected saline intrusion by 2020 Risk areas inundated by 2020
Source: UN-Habitat
Cam Thanh
N
Hot spots Risk areas affected saline intrusion by 2020 Risk areas inundated by 2020
Source: UN-Habitat
9
Chaobuoisang, http://chaobuoisang.net/nguy-co-mat-trang-bai-bien-do-xam-thuc-1683100.htm, Accessed 24th of July 2013
Phuoc Thang • Safeguarde transportation routes to prevent the area becoming an “ island”;
• Improve housing, including raising existing houses;
• Identify evacuation areas;
• Support people to be able to switch livelihood means, when necessary;
• Improved and varied seasonal crops;
• Crops which can withstand salinity;
• Improve water supply infrastructure and/or improving access to clean water for
poor households;
• Consider relocation as a long term option, but not in the short term, and only if
inundation cannot be prevented by other means.
An Dinh • Devise and install an early warning system, especially to protect against the
impacts of flooding;
• Linked to this, devize an evacuation strategy for the area;
• Mitigate loss of assets caused by frequent flooding;
• Undertake conservation measures for culturally important heritage buildings;
• Devise a flood water discharge plan, to improve drainage and resilience in the
event of flooding.
Source: UN-Habitat
There are four solutions for improving capacity to ant, while at the same time, studying the construction
adapt to climate change: of embankments for riverside areas which are likely to
be eroded.
(1) policy, institutional and coordination;
(2) finance and investment; Finance and investment:
(3) human resources and information; The vulnerability assessment has shown that finance
(4) technology and infrastructure. and technology are the two weakest aspects in the
adaptive capacity of the city. It is proposed that, as a
Policy, institutional and coordination: world heritage city, Hoi An positions itself to take ad-
The Eco-City Development Plan Report proposed a vi- vantage of any funding available from the state bud-
sion for the city of Hoi An of sustainable development get, city budget, international cooperation or through
with an effective response to climate change. It also the participation of enterprises. Hoi An should devel-
integrates climate change issues into socio-economic op an investment plan for the city to respond to cli-
development planning and the master plan of Hoi An, mate change and prevent disasters. Results of this as-
with special attention paid to permanent inundation sessment should be used for climate change response
in lowland areas of the city and areas with saline in- action plans at all levels from hotspots, wards/com-
trusion. It also developed plans for the resettlement of munes to city and provincial levels (river basins).
residents out of permanently inundated areas, review-
ing 13 plans among 37 plans/projects listed in the Hoi Human resources and information: this report pro-
An Eco city development plan. A strategic response to poses that the city pro-actively develop a plan to raise
climate change must be directed and implemented at awareness in the community to actively respond to
all levels from households to wards/communes, cities climate change and transform the challenges of the
and provinces in the overall national strategy of cli- latter into opportunities for improvement of living
mate change. conditions and community development. The report
also recommends the use of the flooding model, and
In addition to storm and flood response policies, there an assessment of each hazard as a basis for amend-
should also be additional policies to cope with other ing sectoral plans. It also recommends drafting action
disasters like salinity and policies to attract enterpris- plans to respond to climate change for each sector,
es to respond to climate change. Mechanisms are re- increasing the adaptability of each sector and integrat-
quired to manage urban development in accordance ing climate change issues into the impact assessments
with approved plans and climate change response ac- of socio-economic development projects in the city.
tion plans, giving investment priorities for the most
vulnerable areas and communities. Other priorities in- Technology and infrastructure:
clude the implementation of projects which respond This report proposes investment in technology for cli-
to climate change and prevent disasters, contributing mate change forecasting, early warning and disaster
to the transformation of livelihoods (seeds, livestock management and the promotion of green technol-
and agricultural production), especially for areas that ogy, clean technology and information technology to
are subjected to flooding and salinity. The continued increase adaptability to climate change.
reinforcement of existing embankments is also import-
- Develop an early warning and monitoring system, - Conduct a survey to forecast saline intrusion of sur-
especially for storms and flooding; face water, groundwater and soil, and assess their
impact on the socio-economic development of Hoi
- Calculate the water balance and flood drainage An;
capacity for Hoi An in case the Co Co river gate is
closed and identify appropriate solutions; - Develop a plan for the effective use of surface water
and groundwater of Hoi An; apply holistic solutions
- Develop a safe flood discharge process, preventing (for example reforestation, reinforcing embankment,
downstream flooding due to flood discharge from or construction of a soft dyke) to prevent coastal ero-
upstream hydropower (A Vuong - Song Tranh II); sion in the city;
- Integrate urban infrastructure issues in flood fore- - Calculate the quantity of river sand mining and wid-
casting models, develop and provide flood forecast- en the Thu Bon river channels with stable discharge
ing maps to Hoi An city for disaster management; flow to ensure flood drainage and stabilization of
the riverbank.
Drainage system 2.4 2.7 3 2.2 2.4 2.6 0.15 0.7 0.8 0.8
Natural Resource -
Environment 0.3 4.7 4.8 5.0
Industry-Handicraft 1.73 1.92 2.11 1.73 1.92 2.11 0.3 1.0 1.2 1.3
Agriculture 2.14 2.38 2.62 2.76 3.07 3.38 0.3 1.5 1.6 1.8
Commerce-service 1.94 2.15 2.37 2.13 2.37 2.61 0.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
Source: UN-Habitat
Affected Salinity
Groups
Exposure (E) Sensitivity (S) Weight Average E+S
Natural resource -
Environment 0.35 4.4 4.7 4.8
Socio-economy
(Economic sectors) 0.45 3.0 3.3 3.6
Industry-Handicraft 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.5 1.6 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.0
Agriculture 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.5 2.7 0.3 1.2 1.3 1.5
Commerce-service 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.9 1.0 1.1
Source: UN-Habitat
Total 3.8
Source: UN-Habitat
Total 3.0
Source: UN-Habitat
Affected Storm
Groups
Exposure (E) Sensitivity (S) Weight Average E+S
Total 5.0
Source: UN-Habitat
Total 5.8
Source: UN-Habitat
Total 5.4
Source: UN-Habitat
Source: UN-Habitat
Source: UN-Habitat
Source: UN-Habitat
Starting with a brief background of the city, this report addresses Hoi An’s climate
change situation from a climate risk perspective that focuses on hazards, vulner-
abilities, and the adaptive capacities of the city. Following the insights gained
from clarifying the climate change challenges, the report proposes the key sec-
tors for climate change adaptation and mitigation measures in Hoi An. It finally
recommends four solutions for improving capacity of Hoi An to adapt to climate
change: (1) policy, institutional and coordination; (2) finance and investment;
(3)
human resources and information; (4) technology and infrastructure.
HS Number: HS/025/14E
ISBN Number(Series): 978-92-1-132400-6
ISBN Number:(Volume) 978-92-1-132614-7
www.unhabitat.org