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This Week at the ISN

Our Weekly Content Roundup

25 January 29 January 2016

JUMP TO Editorial Plan | Security Watch | Blog | Video

// Security Watch

This week, our first Security Watch (SW) series focuses on the adjustments NATO needs to make before this summers
Warsaw Summit; why weaker insurgents survive or beat stronger incumbents; the present state of US-Russia relations;
the interaction of religion and secularism in the Middle East; and how incoming refugees will impact the German labor
market. Then, in our second SW series, we look at the hostile use of drones by non-state actors; Chinas crisis diplomacy
in Africa and the Middle East; the limits to socio-political reforms in Cuba; the role of local governance in Nigerias security;
and the so-called Islamic States growing presence in the Philippines.

NATO Defence Planning between Wales and Warsaw

25 January 2016

Is NATO able to guarantee the security of all of its members against Russian aggression? Rainer Glatz and Martin Zapfe
dont think so. Indeed, they think its high time for the Alliance to confront three seemingly intractable problems head on
budgeting, the role and status of nuclear weapons, and the defensibility of the Baltic States. More

An Assessment of Known Drone Use by Non-State Actors

25 January 2016

Thus far, drones have been used by terrorist, insurgent, criminal, corporate and activist groups for two broad purposes
to stage IED-type attacks and gather intelligence. Today, Chris Abbott and others provide specific details on how threat
groups have exploited drones in the past and how they might rely on them in the future. More

Why Weaker Insurgents Survive or Beat Stronger Incumbents

26 January 2016

China's New Crisis Diplomacy in Africa and the Middle East

26 January 2016

How is China reacting to the growing threats to its human and material investments in Africa and the Middle East?
According to Luke Patey, Beijing is abandoning its traditional policy of not interfering in the internal affairs of others and
becoming more involved in conflict resolution, to include peacemaking and peacekeeping activities. More

A SWOT Analysis of USRussian Relations

27 January 2016

Weve all done a SWOT analysis at one time or another. Well, here is Alexander Sergunin and Valery Konyshevs look at
current US-Russia relations. As they see it, asking who lost Russia? is now pass. For reasons they describe here, they
see a new reset gradually emerging between Moscow and Washington. More

Cuba: Change and Continuity

27 January 2016

The loosening of US-imposed economic, travel and financial restrictions on Cuba is raising hopes that the island nation
will move towards a liberal-democratic and market-oriented society. Uh, not so fast, says Augusto Varas. More

Religion and Secularism in the Middle East: A Primer

28 January 2016

How have religion and secularism shaped people's identities in the Middle East? Aaron Rock-Singers answer highlights 1)
the politics of pre-modern Islam; 2) the alterations the religion underwent because of European colonialism, indigenous
reformers and 20th century ideological conflicts; and 3) the changes wrought by the Arab Spring. More

Nigeria's Future Hinges on its States

28 January 2016

As Matthew Page sees it, Nigerias thirty-six governors have both the power and flexibility to help solve many of the
nations problems. For that to happen, however, higher officials, development professionals and businesspeople must
abandon their comfort zones and cultivate relationships outside of Lagos and Abuja. More

The Bothersome Success of the Minimum Wage: The German Labour Market Faces the Refugee Crisis
29 January 2016

In 2015, Germany adopted a minimum wage rate of 8.50 per hour. By the end of 2017, it will most likely grant permanent
residence status to 1 million asylum seekers. Well, how will these interrelated truths affect Germany's labor market,
unemployment rate, and neighbors? Here's what Sebastian Pciennik thinks. More

Islamic State branches in Southeast Asia

29 January 2016

According to Rohan Gunaratna, The so-called Islamic State wants to establish a new base in at least one part of
Southeast Asia. The candidate territory is Basilan, which is the largest island in the Philippine's Sulu Archipelago, and the
designated leader is Isnilon Hapilon, who heads the Abu Sayyaf Group. Read the details here. More

// Blog
Bringing Big Data to War in Mega-Cities
25 January 2016

Is it true? Can enormous amounts of readily available data reveal more about a city, its population, and the nefarious
actors residing within it than ever before? Robert Dixon has no doubts. Its also why todays militaries need to embrace big
data analytics if they hope to succeed in the urban clutter that increasingly defines our world. More

Iraq Situation Report: January 12 19, 2016

26 January 2016

Our partners at the Institute for the Study of War provide invaluable reports on Iraqs evolving security status. In its latest
Situation Report, it describes the impunity with which Iranian proxies are operating in Iraq and how they are endangering
the cohesion and sovereignty of Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadis government. More

No Shortcuts to UNSC Reform

27 January 2016

People may agree that the number of UN Security Council seats needs to be expanded, but there is no consensus on
what this expansion should look like. The position of African nations, as Marina Magalhaes B L da Silva explains today, is
that they should get two new permanent seats and five non-permanent ones. More

What Challenges Does 2016 Hold for Sub-Saharan Africa?

28 January 2016

Indeed, what are they? According to Ryan Cummings, 1) Boko Haram may attempt to adopt the operating protocols of
ISIS affiliates elsewhere; 2) al-Shabaab may fight as much against itself as with its adversaries; 3) Angola may experience
civil unrest; and 4) South African President Jacob Zuma might be recalled from office. More

Dealing with Assertive China: Time for Engagement 2.0

29 January 2016

China's "lie-low, bide our time" strategy is dead, writes Yong Deng. Unfortunately, in its wake Washington and Beijing
seem stuck in "a hapless state of strategic mistrust." To free themselves from this predicament, both countries will have to
avoid the Thucydides Trap and align their interests, preferences, and policies. More

// Multimedia Content
Here is a selection of this week's additions to the ISN Digital
Library:

Publications More
// Security and Social Developments in Kunduz More
// Governing Uranium in the Danish Realm
More
// The Future of Energy in the Atlantic Basin More
// The Role of Women and Gender Policies in Addressing the Military Conflict in Ukraine More
// National Security Policies: Formulating National Security Policies for Good Security Sector Governance
More
// We Shall Speak Where Others are Silent? Fragments of an Oral History of Norwegian Assistance to Afghan Women
More

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