1

MARKET PULSE
December 2015

Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS
Respondents are asked about their last closed

transaction and business activity in their market area

for the previous month and the last year.

LASTTRANSACTION

Majority of Properties Selling BelowAsking

Over

Below

60%

At
57%

50%
40%
30%

25%

20%
10%
0%

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

18%

Premium Paid overAsking Price is Steady

Average
14.0%
11%

12.0%

9.2%
8.9%

10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

0.0%

Percentages Paid BelowAsking Price Reaches

Previous Peak
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
-14%

Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec14 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
Average -5.8 -5.6 -5.8 -6.3 -12% -13% -11% -11% -11% -11% -7.0 -11% -9.6 -11% -10% -12% -13% -13%

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Market RemainedCompetitive as Nearly 2/3

Properties Received MultipleOffers
80%
70%

66%
65%

61%

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

Jan-14

0%

Slightly FewerOffers Received

Average

4.0
3.5
3.0

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.0
1.5
1.0

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

May-14

Apr-14

Mar-14

Feb-14

0.0

Jan-14

0.5

Nearly 1/3 Properties Had Listing Price Reductions

35%
31%

30% 30%

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

Oct-14

Sep-14

Aug-14

Jul-14

Jun-14

0%

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Proportion of BuyersWhoWere Renters Decreasing

60%
50%

46%

40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

43%
39%

11

Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters

25%
21%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

15%
14%

12

Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating

Long RunAverage: 31%
45%

% First-time Buyers

40%

Long Run Average

36%

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

33%
32%

13

Proportion of International Buyers Declining

Long RunAverage: 6.1%

% International Buyers

Long Run Average

12%
10%
8%
6%

6.7%
5.0%

4%
2%
0%

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

2.6%

14

MARKET CONDITIONS

15

REALTORSContinued Receiving Fewer FloorCalls

since the Peak inApril 2015
Last Month
Down

Flat

Up

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

16

ListingAppointments/Presentations toClients Slowing

Last Month
Down

Flat

Up

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your
market area this month was
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

17

Open HouseTrafficContinue to Dip, Partly Due to

Seasonality
Down

Flat

Up

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan-14

Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Oct-15

18

Auctions Declining
Down

Flat

Up

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Apr-14

Jul-14

Oct-14

Jan-15

Apr-15

Jul-15

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Oct-15

19

All Cash Purchases Steady

Down

Flat

Up

50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

20

REALTORS Believe MarketConditions will

Improve or Remain the Same in 2016
Worsen

Same

Improve

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

21

Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions to

Worsen
Rising interest rates
Election
TRID
Flattening prices
Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

22

What are REALTORS Saying?

People want to sell their homes, but their options for
replacement properties are limited.
Low inventory in the lower price ranges causes pricing pressure
and some first-time buyers are squeezed out.
Lenders are being overly cautiousso they are taking
longerbefore allowing loans to proceed.
I expect more listings to come on the market now that the
holidays are over.

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to share
with us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, or
other topics?

23

REALTORSAre MostConcernedAbout Inventory

Lack of Inventory

25%

Decline in housing affordability

20%

Home prices overinflated

14%

Rising Interest Rates

9.5%

Slow down in economic growth

9.5%

Lending & financing

9.5%

Housing bubble

6.1%
0%

5%

10%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

15%

20%

25%

30%

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Top 10 Counties
November 2015

December 2015

Los Angeles

Los Angeles

Orange

San Diego

Riverside

Riverside

Alameda

San Bernardino

San Bernardino

Orange

San Diego

Ventura

Santa Clara

Santa Barbara

Sacramento

San Francisco

Sonoma

Sacramento

10

Butte

El Dorado

Q: In which county do you live?

SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS