China's 2015 economic growth slowest in 25 years

Chinas economy grew at its slowest pace in a quarter of a century last year as it undergoes a
difficult transition, data showed Tuesday, escalating concern over a crucial driver of global
expansion.
The 6.9% figure was the slowest in the Peoples Republic since the 3.8% of 1990, a year after the
bloody Tiananmen Square crackdown rocked the country and isolated it internationally.
World markets have been hammered in recent weeks by worries over China, the worlds number two
economy, and its fourth-quarter expansion also slowed to 6.8%, the National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS) said, the softest since the global financial crisis.
Both figures matched the median forecasts in an AFP survey of 18 economists.
The economy is in the process of stabilisation, but it hasnt stabilised yet, Liao Qun, chief economist
at Citic Bank International in Hong Kong, said.
Chinas leaders who targeted growth of about 7% are looking to transform the countrys economic
model away from the investment and exports of the past to one more oriented towards domestic
consumer demand.
The services sector accounted for 50.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2015, the NBS said in a
statement, the first time it was more than half the economy.
The structural transformation was still underway, it added, calling it a crucial period during which
challenges need to be overcome and problems need to be resolved.
The task of comprehensively deepening the reform is still heavy, the body said.
Last years growth was well below the 7.3% of 2014, and the AFP survey projected it would fall to
6.7% this year.
The situation in 2016 will be more or less the same as in 2015 and Chinas economic growth will still
face a complicated and volatile international situation, NBS chief Wang Baoan told reporters.
But while some sectors will see destocking and overcapacity reduction, he pointed to new areas such
as online retail and renewable energy cars as still growing fast.
As such, he said: We think in 2016 Chinas economic growth will remain stable. We are confident in
that.
The Communist party is widely expected to lower the growth target this year, and President Xi
Jinping has said expansion of 6.5 percent will be sufficient for Chinas needs.
Challenges

Questions have repeatedly been raised about the accuracy of official Chinese economic statistics,
which critics say can be subject to political manipulation, and even Premier Li Keqiang has
reportedly expressed doubts about the data.
Unexpected moves in the yuan exchange rateafter a surprise devaluation in Augusthave also
disturbed investors in recent weeks, with fears the real picture is worse than portrayed and
authorities may not be able implement reforms to make the economy more market-driven.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist for Capital Economics, said in a note: The continued
stability of the official GDP figures will do little to assuage concerns over their credibility.
While official figures should not be taken at face value, he said, the data dont suggest that China is
now entering a deeper economic crisis and his group expects Chinas results to gradually turn more
upbeat over the next few months.
But some economists forecast a rockier year.
Zhao Yang of Nomura reiterated the banks 5.8% forecast for 2016 due to strong headwinds and
overcapacity in manufacturing, along with an excess supply of property.
Chinas industrial production, which measures output at factories, workshops and mines, rose 5.9%
year-on-year in December, the NBS said, from 6.2% in November.

Retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, increased 11.1% year-on-year in Decemberdown
a fraction from Novemberwhile fixed asset investment, a measure of spending on infrastructure,
expanded 10.0 percent in the year.
Those results fell short of forecasts, according to a survey by Bloomberg News, which predicted
retail sales rising 11.3% in the month and industrial production expanding 6.0%.
But Chinese stocks were up solidly by lunch. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.64%
to 2,961.58, while the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on Chinas second exchange,
gained 1.41% to 1,856.09. AFP
http://mg.co.za/article/2016-01-19-chinas-2015-economic-growth-slowest-in-25-years/