U.S.

Intelligence Community:
Evolving to Counter the Threats of the Future

Michael Thompson

INTL 301
Professor Fowler
September 23rd, 2010

There are two types of threats to United States National Security which are Domestic and
Foreign or internal and external. In regards to countering these threats our nations leaders rely
heavily on the analysis of the various agencies that make up the U.S. Intelligence Community
(IC). Todays world presents new challenges for the U.S. IC in its mission of National Security.
Rapid advances in technology, the emergence of developing countries as influential power
brokers in the international arena and the interwoven fabric of the global economy are all issues
that directly affect our National Security and influence U.S. Foreign Policy. These issues only
serve to exacerbate two key concerns of Nuclear Proliferation and Cyber Warfare.
Perhaps one of the largest challenges faced by the U.S. IC is adapting to the current
administrations doctrine, which is to limit U.S. influence abroad by using diplomacy and
partnership rather than leadership. As one study from the Heritage Foundation notes, the current
administration intends to remake America as one nation among many, with no singular claim
either to responsibility or exceptionalism.1 The approach America will take in the future to
counter threats to our national security is one of increased reliance on the international
community. This approach to protecting our National Security is executed through increased
treaties, international summits and diplomatic resolutions rather than promoting peace and
cooperation through the strength of U.S. leadership. Adopting this approach will require the U.S.
IC to focus heavily on how this soft approach will influence countries that are the recipients of
U.S. diplomatic efforts.
Aside from a soft handed approach to U.S. involvement in international affairs, two of
the most dangerous threats to U.S. national security have been and remain Nuclear Proliferation
and Cyber Warfare. At the top of the ICs threat list is Nuclear Proliferation. A recent Threat

Assessment released by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) captured the threat posed by
Nuclear Proliferation perfectly. The assessment concluded the following:
Ongoing efforts of nation-states to develop and or acquire dangerous weapons constitute a
major threat to the safety of our nation, our deployed troops, and our allies. The threat and
destabilizing effect of nuclear proliferation and the threat from the proliferation of materials and
technologies that could contribute to existing and prospective chemical and biological weapons
programs top our concerns.2
The two countries presenting the largest threat of Nuclear Proliferation are Iran and North
Korea. These two countries present the U.S. IC with an incredible dilemma; these two countries
are non-permissive environments that leave intelligence collection capabilities extremely limited.
Much like Iraq before the 2003 invasion, the U.S. IC may have to rely heavily on allies to collect
information regarding Irans intent behind their Nuclear Weapons programs. An overarching
concern is Irans bold defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions and international sanctions
intended to deter Iran from building a functional nuclear weapons program. There is a widely
held belief that a nuclear-armed Iran will set off an arms race within the Middle East and
destabilize the entire region. Limited collection capabilities in Iran combined with failed soft
handed diplomatic approaches to handling the situation place the U.S. IC in a tough position.
In order to offset the non-permissive environments of both Iran and North Korea, the U.S
IC must continue to work closely with other government agencies and our allies to protect
ourselves and the international community from the threat posed by a nuclear-armed Iran and
North Korea. The IC must use all available resources to identify, disrupt and track those
countries and groups who continue to acquire such weapons systems and provide any type of
support to those countries development of nuclear weapons programs. Dedicating such resources

to monitoring the nuclear efforts of emerging countries, the IC must renew the way they conduct
analysis of collected information in order to prevent mistakes of the past. In a 2006 article from
the Nonproliferation Review, author Terry C. Froscher comments on just how the IC can
accomplish this change. He suggests the following:
Better intelligence to enable future success will require diligent attention to the basics*expert
analysts working creatively with collectors, constructive and effective collaboration among
diverse players, more rigorous analytic tradecraft, and a healthy relationship between
intelligence and policy. Nonetheless, the difficulty of the problem is growing and a realistic
understanding of what is possible is also needed.3
Coupling experts in the fields associated with nuclear weapons systems with expert
analysts in the same or similar field, returning to the basics of analysis while applying creative
analytic methods and a positive relationship with policy makers will greatly enhance the ICs
prediction capability and create a more secure nation.
The next key threat posed to our nations security is the Cyber threat. The same threat
estimate that addressed the concerns of nuclear proliferation also addresses the Cyber threat to
U.S. National Security. In the assessment, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Dennis C.
Blair noted that both the U.S. public and private information infrastructure is severely
threatened.2 In the early months of 2010, large private sector companies such as Google and
ExxonMobil announced that their information systems had been critically penetrated which
nearly resulted in Googles withdraw from operating in China.
Similar penetrations of U.S. Defense Contractor information systems were also reported
which leaves the question as to how safe are our information systems from penetration by those
with malicious intent? In a 2010 report published by the Air Forces Cyber Secure Institute, it

was noted that the nature of these attacks is starting to shift from penetration attempts aimed at
gathering intelligence (cyber spying) to offensive efforts aimed at taking down systems
(cyberattacks).4 The shift from simply collecting intelligence to attacking and neutralizing our
most critical information systems shows that the U.S. is actively engaged in a cyber war against a
faceless enemy.
Other cyber attacks annotated in the same report cast light on just how lethal the cyber
threat is to U.S. National Security. In 2007 cyber attackers hacked into the information systems
of the Department of Defense, Department of State and the Department of energy downloading
enough information to fill the Library of Congress.4 Other attacks against U.S. information
systems carried out by Chinas military include penetration of the White Houses email system
and an attack on the Pentagons information system which caused the system to shut down for
over a week.
The U.S. IC must pay special attention to this threat as the nature of the attacks and the means to
carry them out evolve in conjunction with the daily evolution of technology. The DNI has made a
concerted effort to face this challenge by integrating cyber security with counterintelligence and
improving our ability to understand, detect, attribute, and counter the full range of threats.2 In
order to combat the threat multiple agencies were created within the IC such as the National
Cyber Security Division (NCSD) of the Department of Homeland Security. The National
Security Agency (NSA) has also taken a lead role in protecting Americas information systems
from outsider threat and is responsible for the U.S. Governments Information Assurance
program. In conjunction with the creation of new agencies to face the cyber threat, new
directives have emerged which unify and drive the ICs efforts to combat the cyber threat. The
Comprehensive National Cybersecurity Initiative (CNCI) is an initiative designed to mitigate

[U.S. information system] vulnerabilities while being exploited by our cyber adversaries and
provide long-term strategic operational and analytic capabilities to US Government
organizations.2 The cyber threat facing the United States will require that the IC work hand in
hand with private sector companies and organizations to integrate them fully into the effort to
counter the cyber security threat.
The threats facing our nation will always remain, but it is the manner in which we
prepare to face them and how we deal with them that makes the most difference. The U.S. IC
must be unified in their effort to combat the growing threats of Nuclear Proliferation by state
sponsors of terrorism and emerging countries. The IC must be unified and work in partnership
with the private sector to combat cyber warfare. These threats require evolution and changes in
the way the U.S. IC operates on a basic level to effectively detect neutralize or counter those
threats. If this evolution does not occur, the U.S. will likely face some of the most tumultuous
circumstances over the next two decades it has faced in its short history.

Notes
1. Kim R. Holmes and James J. Carafano, Defining the Obama Doctrine, Its Pitfalls and How
to Avoid Them, 2457. http://heritage.org/Research/Reports/2010/08/Defining-the-ObamaDoctrine-Its-Pitfalls-and-How-to-Avoid-Them (accessed September 25, 2010).
2. Director of National Intelligence, Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence
Community for the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, by Dennis C. Blair (2010).
Http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20100202_testimony.pdf (accessed September 25, 2010).
3. Torry C. Froscher, "Anticipating Nuclear Proliferation: Insights from the Past
Nonproliferation Review 13, no. 3 (November 2006): DOI: 10.1080/10736700601071439,
http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/133froscher.pdf (accessed September 25, 2010).
4. Eugene A. Habiger, Cyberwarfare and Cyberterrorism: The Need for a New U.S. Strategic
Approach, Provoking Cybersecurity Change White Paper Series, White Paper 1:2010,
http://cybersecureinstitute.org/docs/whitepapers/Habiger_2_1_10.pdf (accessed September 25,
2010).
5. National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed, NIC 2008-03,
http://www.dni.gov/nic/PDF_2025/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf (accessed September
25, 2010).