9th Philippine Meteorological Society Convention Proceedings

1|9th PMS Convention Proceedings (2014)
CONVENTION RATIONALE
By: Raymond Ordinario
In the past few years, the Philippines has been affected by extreme weather events such as
Tropical Storm Sendong (Washi) in 2011 which brought severe flooding in the cities of Cagayan
de Oro and Iligan, Typhoon Pablo (Bopha) in 2012 caused damages in coastal areas of Davao
Oriental and Compostela Valley, and recently Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) in 2013, the strongest
tropical cyclone of the century, struck Central Visayas which highly devastated coastal
communities of Samar and Leyte Provinces particularly Tacloban City due to storm surge.
Because of these extreme events that may be experienced again in the future, this years PMS
Convention theme will be State-of-the-Art Technologies in response to Extreme Weather and
Climate Events which aims to introduce these new technologies and initiatives to help mitigate
their impacts. We envision linking the science of meteorology to disaster management and public
awareness. Furthermore, this convention will serve as a good venue to learn from local
experiences and foreign expertise.
CONVENTION SUBTHEMES
1. Understanding extreme weather and climate events
Experiences with Typhoon Yolanda 1: PAGASA
Experiences with Typhoon Yolanda 2: NGCP
El Nio: Dry Spell 2007/2009-2010
Habagat of 2012 and 2013
2. Update in Climate Change Projections and Climate Change Adaptation in the
Philippines
Updates on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

Mapping of Vulnerability on Food Security
Current Climate Change Projection in the Philippines
Climate Change Adaptation in the Philippines
3. Current initiatives related to extreme weather and climate events

Engineering and Structural Design
Agriculture and Food Security
Flood and Coastal Management
Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP)
4. State of the Art Technologies

RADAR
Satellite and Telecommunication Technologies
5. Current Development of Allied Sciences
PAGASAs acquired technologies
Application of satellite technologies to regional climate models
CONVENTION ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

Susan R. Espinueva, Ph.D.
Chairperson
Esperanza O. Cayanan, Ph. D.
PMS President
Ma. Cecilia A. Monteverde
Sharon Juliet M. Arruejo
Delia T. Basco
Robert Z. Quinto
Analiza S. Solis
Jorybell A. Masallo
Adelaida C. Duran
Raymond C. Ordinario
Aniceta B. Garcia
Rhonalyn L. Vergara
Joseph Q. Basconcillo
PMS Officers
Teresa Pajarillo
Mario Miclat
Judith Bomidiano
Claro Capulong
Convention Secretariat
CONVENTION PROCEEDINGS COMMITTEE

Lead Editor
Rhonalyn L. Vergara-Macalalad
Rosemarie Ann A. Marasigan
Section Editors
Jorybell A. Masallo
Layout
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Convention Rationale
Convention Organizing Committee
Session 1:
Understanding Extreme Weather and Climate Events
PAGES 7-12
Typhoon Yolanda: An In-Depth Analysis by Raymond C. Ordinario

Impact of Typhoon Yolanda on Power Transmission System by Lino Fabia
Comparison of Typhoon Yolanda with 1912 Typhoon by Hisayuki Kubota
Comparative Review of Habagat 2012 and Habagat 2013 by Ma. Cecilia A. Monteverde
Session 2:
Update in Climate Change Projections and CCA in the Philippines
PAGES 13-21
Update on the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) by Rosalina G. de Guzman
Current Climate Change Projection in the Philippines by Joseph Q. Basconcillo
Climate Change Adaptation in the Philippines: Government Perspective by Maria Lovella Segayo
Sea Level Rise by Rosa T. Perez
Mapping of Vulnerability on Food Insecurity by Eulito Bautista
Session 3:
Current Initiatives Related to Extreme Weather and Climate Events
PAGES 22-25
RAINWATCHER: Polarimetric Radar Rainfall Sensor with full Solid State Technology by Jose
Rolando Lamac and Vincent Gil Tuazon
DOST PAGASA Meteorological Satellite Facility and Its Relevance to WMO Space Program by
Vicente Palcon Jr.
Session 4:
State of the Art Technologies
PAGES 26-32
Agriculture and Food Security: International Setting by Reiner Wassman

Design of Structures for Wind and NCSP 6th Edition 2010 by Carlos M. Villaraza
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in the
Comprehensive Land Use Plan by Linda Malena- Hornilla
Session 5:
Current Development of Allied Sciences
PAGES 33-38
July 2007 Unconventional Dry Spell by Esperanza O. Cayanan

Storm Surge and Coastal Hazard Mapping in the Philippines by Nestor B. Nimes
Role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Social Network in Disaster
Management by Arnel R. Manoos
Dynamical Downscaling of Selected CMIP3 Models for Southeast Asia using the PRECIS
Regional Climate Model by Thelma A. Cinco
Roster of PMS Officers

Suggested Citation
Acknowledgment
SUGGESTED CITATION
Basconcillo, J., Ordinario, R., Macalalad, R., Marasigan, R., & Masallo, J. (2014). 9th PMS Convention
Proceedings. 9th PMS National Meteorological-Hydrological Convention (20-21 February 2014).
Quezon City: Philippine Meteorological Society.
SESSION 1
UNDERSTANDING EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS

Rhonalyn L. Vergara-Macalalad
Section Editor
Secretary, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines
Weather Specialist, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines
Engr. Fredolina Baldonado1

Session Chairperson
Former President, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines
Assistant Weather Services Chief, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines
Robert Z. Quinto
Session Rapporteur
Trustee, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines
Senior Weather Specialist, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines
Summary
Due to its geographical location, we cannot negate the idea that the Philippines is very prone to
the effects of tropical cyclones and other disaster-causing weather phenomena. In fact, history
has documented our country as a place where extreme to most extreme weather and climate
events were experienced. These experiences had deeply scarred the people due to the impacts
they have brought to lives and properties. We have seen how these very strong typhoons,
together with excessive or torrential rain-causing landslides, severe winds and storm surge had
caused deaths and massive destructions leaving billions of dollars of damages in the country.
Typhoon Yolanda is one of the many deadly tropical cyclones, being the strongest in history that
ever passed over the country and recorded in history. Indeed, it is one of the many events that
clearly defined how vulnerable our country is to extreme weather event. This leads the
organizers of the 9th Convention of the Philippine Meteorological Society make the first session
to focus more on the said typhoon and its characteristics. With the topics namely a) Typhoon
Yolanda an in-Depth Analysis, b) Impacts of Typhoon Yolanda on Power Transmission System,
and; c) Comparison of Typhoon Yolanda with the 1912 Typhoon, one can fully understand what
had happened during its transit.
Engr. Baldonado is currently with the North Luzon Regional Services Division of PAGASA-DOST.
In an in-depth analysis of Mr. Raymond Ordinario about Typhoon Yolanda, the formation from
cyclogenesis down to its full development, taking into consideration those specific conditions
that made the said typhoon unique was clearly discussed. Also, the storm surge associated with
Typhoon Yolanda, as well as the destruction it brought to people living in the coastlines was also
reviewed. To mention some facts, Yolanda being classified as a Super Typhoon based on its wind
strength, attained a maximum sustained wind in a 10-min average of 240 kilometer per hour and
gustiness of 275 kilometres per hour when it made landfall in Guian, Eastern Samar. As it
headed towards Samar area, it generated storm surges of about 5 to 7 meters high that
inundated or flooded the coastal areas of islands in the Visayas. Worst hit is the city of Tacloban
due to the orientation of the coastline to the path of the typhoon. The effect of this typhooninduced storm surge in Central Visayas can be regarded as an extensive devastation. Based on
the report of National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, a total of 6245 people
were killed while almost 3 million families were greatly affected. In terms of properties,
agriculture, bridges and infrastructures including churches and airports were severely damaged.
Power failure and water systems were destroyed were also extensive throughout the affected
areas as power lines and water systems were destroyed. As Engr. Lino Fabia of the National
Grid Corporation of the Philippines discussed in his presentation, the powerlines of Central
Visayas were greatly affected by the Typhoon Yolanda. He showed how extensive the power loss
in Cebu, Negros and Panay due to damaged power plants facilities and toppled transmissions
poles.
Meanwhile based on records from 1948 to 2012, there are about 236 tropical cyclones that
crossed over Visayas Regions. From this number, a total of 56 tropical cyclones occurred during
the month of November and 98% of these made landfall. Similarly, in a study made by Dr.
Hisayuli Kubota of Japan Agency for Marine Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), he
mentioned that there are a lot of typhoon that hit Visayas from1897-2013 and five (5) of which
landed Tacloban and among those, three (3) produced storm surge damages the 1897, 1912
Typhoons and 2013 Typhoon Yolanda. The storm surge produced by these typhoons ranges from
0.4 to 7 meters in height. This suggests that storm surge in those areas though not an unfamiliar
scene and new to their experience, it is something that people must prepare about.
Nowadays, not only strong typhoons are considered fatal to human lives but also torrential rains
and severe wind-related occurrence since they can also cause casualties from the flood causing
land/mudslides associated with them. In fact, the torrential rains carried by a Habagat for
instance are incidents which can cause damages similar to what a powerful typhoon could do.
With this, Ms. Ma. Cecilia A. Monteverde did a comparative review of Habagat happened in
2012 and Habagat in 2013. Her results showed that these events were both brought about by the
effect of an existing tropical cyclone positioned in Northern Luzon of in Taiwan
Okinawa area. This enhances the Southwest Monsoon which increases rainfall
intensity hence, bringing widespread flooding in certain areas like Metro Manila.
After realizing how exposed our country to extreme weather and climate events as what was
learned from Yolanda and Habagat, its people should start finding ways to prevent the
disastrous impacts brought by similar situations. A simple start of understanding and knowing
the science of typhoon is a good way of strengthening ones capacity of formulating bigger
solution to weather related problems. This can be done through many different ways like
educating the students in school, educating the public through information and education
campaign for the locals and by simply exchanging ideas on how to respond to the negative
effects of storms when they finally come with the experts. Lastly, Typhoon Yolanda and the
Habagat remind us that not only lives but also our nature must be given the highest regard.
Typhoon Yolanda: An In-Depth Analysis
The chronological events related to Typhoon (TY) Yolanda (it also goes by its international
name Haiyan) from its early development to a Low Pressure Area to full scale typhoon intensity
were discussed in this session. TY Yolanda entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)
on November 6, 2014 and left on November 9, 2014. During its stay in the Philippines, it caused
unimaginable severe winds, storm surges, and damages to the Filipino people and their
properties. Indeed, Typhoon Yolanda is the strongest of its kind ever recorded and confronted.
TY Yolanda made landfall in Guiuan Eastern Samar specifically over Homonhon & Suluan
Islands. The last recorded pressure before its landfall at Guiuan station was 910.0 hPa. At this
pressure, the equivalent maximum sustained wind is 240kph near the center and gustiness up to
280kph.
Based on interviews and actual observations in the area, the eye of TY Yolanda passed between
the Municipalities of Dulag and Tolosa, Leyte between 5am to 6am of Nov 8, 2014. The
Provinces of Leyte and Eastern Samar were devastated by Typhoon Haiyan and associated storm
surges. A height of 5-6 meters was recorded in Tacloban to Palo, Leyte with inundation of 600 to
800 meters. In Basey, Samar, similar height and inundation were reported. Guiuan to Hernani,
Eastern Samar experienced higher wave height reaching up to 6 to 7 meters with inundation of
800 to 1000 meters.
TY Yolanda made six (6) landfalls: (1) Guian Eastern Samar, (2) Tolosa, Leyte, (3)
Daanbantayan, Cebu, (4) Bantayan Island, Cebu, (5) Concepcion, Iloilo, and (6)
Busuanga, Palawan. It took 7 days and 6 hours before it dissipated with lowest
pressure of 895 hPa. It stayed in PAR for 5 days with a maximum sustained wind
10 | 9 t h P M S C o n v e n t i o n P r o c e e d i n g s ( 2 0 1 4 )
of 240 kph and 280 kph gustiness. Two RADOME at PAGASA Guiuan Station were destroyed
by strong winds on Nov 8, 2014 at 5 AM. The maximum observed sustained wind coming from
northeast was 191 kph recorded.
Impact of Typhoon Yolanda on Power Transmission System

Engr. Lino Fabia
National Grid Corporation of the Philippines: Quezon City, Philippines
During the passage of TY Yolanda, the whole Visayas power grid experienced total power loss.
NGCP automatically cuts of power system whenever there is a public storm warning signal
raised by PAGASA in any place. In the case of TY Yolanda, power was immediately restore in
Cebu, Negros and Panay (CNP) grid. One of the impacts brought by TY Yolanda is that several
power plants in Leyte and cannot operate due to damaged facilities. Several steel towers and
poles of transmission and sub-transmission lines in Leyte, Samar and Panay areas were also
damaged and toppled. Several NGCP substations control buildings and switchyards were
affected and reported damages but operations were reinstated immediately.
Lessons learned. In preparedness to extreme events, there are several lessons that can be
obtained from our experiences. NGCP noted that there should be improvement in the level of
stocks of materials to cater for unexpected emergencies similar to TY Yolanda. Warehouses or
staging areas for transmission line supplies and materials including accessories should be near
the sea port for faster mobilization to other regions. There is a need now to redesign the steel
towers that can sustain more than the previous highest wind speed. All control buildings design
should prioritize its sturdiness to typhoon than its architectural appearance. Remove/limit the
eaves of building roofing in the design of new buildings while the roofing eaves of
exposed/damaged existing buildings should be rehabilitated. The use of wide glass windows and
doors or it should be smaller in size should be limited with proper design and function.
Communication plan should be established in form of high-frequency radio, portable radio
repeater/satellite that has wider coverage areas and longer distance communication link in the
field workers, satellite command centers, and regional & overall command centers.
Comparison of Typhoon Yolanda with 1912 Typhoon

Hisayuki Kubota, PhD
Scientist, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science Technology (JAMSTEC): Kanagawa, Japan
In a study conducted by JAMSTEC, it was found out that there are many typhoons that have
landed near Tacloban in 1897-2013. Among these numbers, three tropical cyclones generated
storm surges other than TY Yolanda. Based on the report of the Monthly Weather Review (1912)
of Philippine Weather Bureau, the 1897 tropical cyclone recorded 925.2 hPa minimum station
pressure at PAGASA Tanauan. This resulted to maximum wave height of 7.3 m in Hernani, 4.9
m in Basey, and less than 1 m in Tacloban and Guian.
In 1912, another tropical cyclone was reported to have generated storm surge in the same areas
where TY Yolanda crossed. The Municipalities of Bobon, Tababao, and Sta. Rita in Samar
reported more than 6 m of wave height. Tacloban, this time, was hit by a 2 m storm surge height
and Capiz with 1 m. The minimum station pressure was observed in Tacloban at 924.0 hPa.
Kubota concluded the presentation by stating that recently Philippines tends to face strong
typhoon landfall due to warm subsurface temperature associated with climate regime shift
around 2008.
Comparative review of Habagat 2012 and Habagat 2013
Vice President, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines
The presence of tropical cyclone in the north of Northern Luzon or the Taiwan-Okinawa area
enhances the Southwest Monsoon which increases rainfall intensity hence, bringing widespread
flooding in particular areas. Southwest monsoon (locally known as Habagat) is a seasonal wind
blowing from the southwest direction. It causes extensive cloud development and rainfall at the
western sections of the country. It normally occurs during the months of June to October each
year.
With the continuous and massive precipitation during the two (2) successive southwest
monsoons in 2012 and 2013, severe flooding had been reported in most areas in Metro Manila
and nearby regions. Rainfall concentration during Habagat 2012 was observed over Metro
Manila while, during Habagat 2013, southern portions of Metro Manila suffered intense
precipitation. State-of-the-art meteorological tools play a vital and significant contribution
towards accurate and reliable weather-related information.
Improved forecasting and emergency response have lowered tropical cyclone casualty rates, but
as more people and infrastructures move into harms way, storms are likely to become
destructive.
Section Editors Note

All discussions in this session were directly lifted from the presentations of our distinguished
panelists. Citations and references are exclusively ascribed to them respective to their
commitment to present before the Convention.
SESSION 2
UNDERSTANDING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AND CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION IN THE PHILIPPINES
Session Chairperson and Section Editor
Delia T. Basco
Session Rapporteur
Summary
Changes in climate patterns are better understood if anchored on studying future world
scenarios, projected impacts, and subsequently formulate adaptation strategies. Through this
framework, the Philippine Meteorological Society hosted a session on different levels of climate
change studies from global efforts to local adaptation initiatives. The topics are as follows: (1)
Update on the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC); (2) Current Climate Change Projection in the Philippines; (3) Climate Change
Adaptation in the Philippines; (4) Sea Level Rise; and (5) Mapping of Vulnerability on Food
Security.
Different people will have different adaptation strategies and coping mechanisms to changing
climate patterns. But to develop these strategies, it is necessary to provide good information
from which good decision making processes could be instigated.
Ms. Rosalina de Guzman shared some updates on recently concluded evidences of global
warming and how climate scientists crafted new future realities. Dr. Rosa Perez complemented
the foregoing presentation with her discussions on sea level rise and how it adversely affect the
livelihood and welfare especially in coastal communities and island nations.
Both topics were excellent jumpstarts of the Session because they provided insights on the
current state of the global climate system. It is realized, through these discussions, that
concerted efforts are vital to how we can mitigate climate change impacts. Concerted efforts, in
this sense, directly translate to the actions taken towards greenhouse gases
emissions among others.
Mr. Joseph Basconcillo presented projected changes in seasonal rainfall and mean temperature
over the Philippines as a result of an initiative developed with FAO AMICAF and PAGASA. Dr.
Eulito Bautista showed how climate change projections were used in various purposes such as
water resources and crop yield modeling, poverty and hunger incidence analysis, socioeconomic
policies analysis, and livelihoods adaptation strategies. Ms. Lovella Segayo presented the
efforts of the Philippine national government to support initiatives on climate change studies all
the way down to the community level.
With the new assessment of IPCC and the preliminary results on the climate projections in the
Philippines, the climate change adaptation and mitigation should take place to minimize the
impact of impending climate change. The Philippiness adaptation strategy was mandated by
Climate Change Act of 2009 and having the fund to initiate these activities is thru another law
that will finance the adaptation and mitigation project on the local community with the use of
People Survival Fund. The involvement of the community to become climate change adaptive
and resilient is very crucial since it will cater the need of the people on the ground.
Sea level rise and food insecurity are one of the highly probable impact of changing climate both
on the global and local scale. Philippines being an archipelagic country is highly vulnerable to
climate change and most of the communities live in the coastal area which is highly exposed to
the impact of sea level rise. As our environment changes due to changing climate the issue on
food insecurity became one of the outmost concerns. With the result from the AMICAF project
shows that 49 provinces in the Philippines are vulnerable to food insecurity and three (3) out of
the 49 provinces was considered as very, very vulnerable to food insecurity.
In general, all topics under this Session concertedly suggested uncertainties as regards to
changes in climate patterns and how it could affect each individual and the community at large.
But they all agree that the springboard towards climate change adaptation is through good
climate information, no matter if it is scientific or psychosocial.
Update on the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)2
Rosalina G. de Guzman
Human Influence on Climate Change. The Philippines is among the countries that are vulnerable
to climate change specifically on sea level rise because it is an archipelago. This topic
concentrated on four topics namely: (a) observed changes in the climate; (b) what is causing
2 IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J.
Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
New York, NY, USA, 1535 pp, doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.
these changes, (c) future projections of climate change; and (d) main conclusions and key
uncertainties. The emphasis on the contribution of human activities in the emission of
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) was articulated in the presentation because it is likely that human
influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. This
is due to the fact that the 40% increase in GHGs since 1750 is due to human activity and that it
exceeds the recorded in ice cores for the last 800,000 years according to IPCC.
Evidences of Global Warming. The warming of the global climate system is unequivocal and
many of the observed changes in both the maximum and minimum temperature extremes are
unprecedented since 1950s. The average warming of land and ocean surface temperature is 0.85
C from 1880 to 2012. Due to theses warming trends, the annual mean arctic summer sea ice
extent decreased with a rate of 3.5% to 4.1% per decade from 1979 to 2012. There was observed
positive net radiation or positive forcing which is related to warming. The largest contribution of
the positive forcing is associated with the increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide (CO2) since 1750. The observed warming is consistent with simulations that include
anthropogenic factors. With this evidence of human influence in climate systems the new
assessment report was published by IPCC since the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) dealt with (a)
long record of surface temperature, heat content; (b) less negative aerosol forcing based on
improved estimates; (c) reduced recent warming rate and (d) methodological changes using prior
assumptions while the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) dealt with multiple line of evidence such as
(1) paleo-climatic observation, (2) observed climate change, (3) modeling and (4) feedback
analysis which supported to have high confidence.
The future climate can be determined partially by internal and external forcing. The internal
forcing involved natural processes in the atmosphere such as the El Nio Southern Oscillation
(ENSO); Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO); and the year-year and decade-decade
fluctuation in the atmospheric condition while external forcing involves the changes in the
radiative forcing by introducing changes in the concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs).
A New Way to Describe Future World. The two assessment reports of IPCC dealt with the future
projection on climate system. In previous future world descriptions, AR4 focused on four (4)
emission scenarios (denoted as Special Report on Emission Scenarios or SRES). Each scenario is
based on different assumptions of future greenhouse gases emission, land-use and other driving
force. As a more recent future world description, AR5 deals with the Representative
Concentration Pathways or RCPs.
RCPs are GHGs concentration trajectories at which each pathway describes a future value of
radiative forcing in the year 2100 with an aim to provide a range of climate model responses
rather than derived from socio-economic storylines. RCPs describe four possible climate futures,
all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are
emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and
RCP8.5) are named after a possible range of radiative forcing values relative to
pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2) which is used in research and climate
modeling. The RCP4.5 is the medium-low emissions increasing scenario while RCP8.5 is the
fossil-fuel intensive scenario. By the end of the century, the increase of global mean surface
temperature above 1986-2005 levels is projected to be: 0.3-1.7C under RCP2.6 and 2.6-4.8C
under RCP8.5.
What is there to come? There is very high confidence that long-term warming will be larger over
land than over the ocean, and that the Arctic region will warm most rapidly. Ocean warming will
continue for centuries, even if greenhouse gas emissions are decreased. Extreme precipitation
events over most of the mid-latitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will be very likely
to become more intense and more frequent by the end of this century. Monsoon precipitation is
likely to intensify, along with a lengthening of the monsoon season. It is very likely that the
number of cold days and night has decreased and the number of warm days and nights has
increased in the global scale. Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21 st century
due to thermal expansion of the ocean, loss of ice glaciers and ice sheets and reduction of liquid
water storage on land. In conclusion, (1) continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause
further warming and changes in all components of the climate system. Limiting climate change
will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. (2) Cumulative
emission of CO2 largely determine global mean surface warming by the late 21st century and
beyond. Most aspects of climate change will persist for many centuries even if emissions of CO2
are stopped. This represents a substantial multi-century climate change commitment created by
past, present and future emissions of CO2.
Current Climate Change Projection in the Philippines3

Joseph Q. Basconcillo4
Assistant Secretary, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines
Weather Specialist, PAGASA : Quezon City, Philippines
FAO AMICAF Project. The presentation provided insights on preliminary climate change
projections in the Philippines up to its provincial boundaries using different storylines of SRES.
This initiative was developed under the FAO AMICAF Project with PAGASA. Under Project
Component 1: Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture, the Global Climate Model (GCM) was
statistically downscaled to provide projections for crop growth models and hydrological models.
The crop models will give yield projections that will be used by Provincial Agriculture Market
(PAM) model to have Provincial Agricultural Market Impact (PAMI) that will result to Food
Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis. On the other hand, the hydrological model will provide water
availability for irrigation that will be used as an input for PAM then to PAMI then
3
Developed under FAO AMICAF Project of PAGASA and AMICAF Philippines
to Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis. Since the project will deal with climate models it is
necessary to provide the basic concept of climate models as well as the climate scenarios.
Methods and Data. Climate model is a numerical representation of the interactions in the global
climate systems. The climate models were ran using the boundary conditions as an input and
these boundary conditions are from different climate scenarios. Climate scenarios are the
description of the future world through different storylines. In the project it is focused on the
A1B and A2 scenarios. A1B scenario is focused on balanced emphasis on all energy sources and
on the other hand, A2 is characterized by a world of independently operating, self-reliant nations,
continuously increasing population and regionally oriented economic development. These
climate models are global in scale which has a coarse resolution. The target is to have a climate
projection at the provincial level which requires finer resolution. To achieve this, statistical
downscaling was used and it is defined as the relationship between model output and
observations. The methodology described have three (3) process such as (1) statistical
downscaling that will use the past climate from PAGASA stations and GCM at around 200 km
resolution and will also do hind-cast using reanalysis data from ERA-INTERIM, then will have a
control or baseline data then the two (2) projection of SRES; (2) spatial interpolation that using
model output at station level from statistical downscaling will use the residuals and then the
predictions; and lastly the (3) spatial aggregation, in this process the station projection will be
aggregated to provide spatial information in the provincial level.
Preliminary Result. The result for rainfall in the A1B and A2 scenario showed that the entire
Philippines have increasing projections while the lowest projections are found in the eastern
Philippines and the highest projections are found in Luzon. There is an annual change in rainfall
of 3-14% under A1B scenario while 7-19% under A2 scenario. In terms of average temperature,
under both scenarios (A1B and A2) show that the entire Philippines will have increasing
projections and in A1B the highest project is found in National Capital Region (NCR) while in
A2 scenario, the highest projections are found in the urbanized region. The annual change in
average temperature is within the range of 0.2.-0.5 C under A1B scenario and 0.3-0.4 C under
A2 scenario. The preliminary key findings are as follows: (a) mountainous areas will have lower
increase in temperature by 2040 especially in June-July-August (JJA); (b) NCR and neighboring
provinces will have higher increase in temperature by 2040 by as much as 0.5C in March-AprilMay (MAM); (c) temperature will increase by as much as 0.9C; and (d) greater rainfall will be
experienced ranging from 3-19% increase.
Climate Change Adaptation in the Philippines: Government Perspective

Maria Lovella Segayo
Development Management Officer IV
Climate Change Commission (CCC) of the Philippines: Manila, Philippines
Climate Change Act of 2009. The climate change adaptation in the Philippines is crafted with the
establishment of the Climate Change Commission (CCC) through the Climate Change Act of
2009. The Climate Change Act of 2009 helped to strengthen, integrate and consolidate and
institutionalize the sector based initiatives on Climate Change. The law also calls for the
formulation of the National Framework Strategy on Climate Change which focused on ensuring
the adaptation of the communities and ecosystems but as the same time to charter a cleaner
development path highlighting the mutual beneficial relationship of mitigation and adaptation. In
2012, the Republic Act 10174 was passed to provide a long term finances stream to address
climate change that essentially established the People Survival Fund that will support adaptation
activities of the local government and communities.
Quo Vadis, Philippines? The Climate Change Act of 2009 also requires developing a National
Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) that will serve as the roadmap of the government for
climate change actions. It also set the strategic direction of the government to address climate
change thru adaptation and mitigation for 2011 to 2028. The Plan has adopted a practical
approach in clustering programs and activities along seven priority themes in which sectoral
agencies and interest groups can easily relate with. The thematic clusters include: food security,
water sufficiency, ecosystem and environmental stability, human security, climate smart
industries and services, sustainable energy, and a cross-cutting knowledge and capacity
development cluster. Furthermore, it is realistically phased into three plan periods short,
medium and long terms. There are at least 326 planned initial activities. The climate change
Adaptations (CCA) at the national level is the project on Managing risk of communities within
the 18 Major River Basins vulnerable to critical geological and hydro-meteorological hazards,
through enhancing local adaptive capacity and strengthening natural ecosystems resilience to
climate change and disasters. The NCCAP Anchor Program will run for 2.5 years focusing on
three (3) strategic priorities: (1) food security; (2) water sufficiency; and (3) human security that
include community farms and gardens, rainwater harvesting and management and the
institutionalization of CCA-DRR in Resettlement Design and Community Support System.
Down to the community level. At the local level, implementation of the action plan will be
packaged using the concept of ecologically stable and economically resilient towns or eco-towns.
Aside from increased adaptive capacity of communities and ecosystems, the tangible output of
eco-town is the local climate change action plan. The governments adaptation
measures will cover technical and infrastructure, governance and policy and
farming practices. The finance of the CCA is through the People Survival Fund
(PSF) which can be replenishing fund to finance adaptation activities of the local
government and communities. The PSF can be used to the following: (1) adaptation activities in
areas of water resources management, land management, agriculture and fisheries, health,
infrastructure development and natural ecosystems; (2) forecasting and early warning systems;
(3) institutional development for local governments; (4) guarantee for risk insurance needs; and
(5) community adaptation support programs. In conclusion, the CCA in the Philippines is using
the top down and bottom up approaches also it is a concerted efforts among national government
agencies and other stakeholders and lastly financing is the key element.
Sea Level Rise
Rosa T. Perez, PhD
Senior Research Fellow
Manila Observatory: Quezon City, Philippines
What is sea level rise? In the future climate projection, one of the issues that are associated with
climate change and global warming is sea level rise. Sea level rise is defined as the increase in
the sea level. Sea level has risen around 130 meters since the peak of the last ice age about
18,000 years ago. Most of the rise occurred before 6,000 years ago. From 3,000 years ago to the
start of the 19th century sea level was almost constant, rising at 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr. Since 1900 the
level has risen at 1 to 3 mm/yr.; since 1992 satellite altimetry from TOPEX/Poseidon indicates a
rate of rise about 3 mm/yr. The processes that control sea level changes are climate, earth
movements and gravity and rotation. The uncertainty in the local prediction of sea level rise are
(1) global and regional component plus the land movement (e.g. land uplift will counter sea level
rise while land subsidence will exacerbate any global sea level rise), (2) lowering of land due to
natural compaction of underlying soil and sediment or by compaction sped by rapid withdrawal
of groundwater, (3) earthquake and volcanic activity, and (4) other dynamic oceanic and climatic
effects cause regional differences.
The Future World with Rising Sea Level. In the AR5 of IPCC states that the global mean sea
level will continue to rise during the 21st century and all the RCP scenarios show that the rate of
sea level rise will very likely to exceed that observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean
warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets. There is a mean of 53 cm
global sea level rise while low end of 36 cm and high end of 71 cm for 2081-2100 if there is a
late mitigation scenario or the RCP4.5. In RCP8.5 the mean rise is 74 cm and the range of 52-98
cm. The global ocean will continue to warm during the 21st century. Heat will penetrate from the
surface to the deep ocean and affect ocean circulation. It is very likely that the Arctic sea ice
cover will continue to shrink and thin. Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease
during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises. Global glacier volume will
further decrease. Philippines is one of the regions vulnerable to sea level rise. The
impacts of sea level rise are as follows: (a) higher and more frequent flooding; (b)
shoreline erosion; (c) loss of wetlands and near shore coastal habitats; (d) upward
and landward migration of beaches or loss of beaches; (e) salt water intrusion in coastal
freshwater aquifers; (f) increased near-shore wave energy; (g) enhanced effects of storm surges;
(h) damage to coastal infrastructure; and (i) economic impacts. The responses to coastal change
are (a) deliberately do nothing, (b) retreat, (c) accommodation and (d) soft and hard protection.
In conclusion, sea level change is a slow process, but its effects can enhance other multiple
stressors; the Philippines, due to its geography and topography is physically vulnerable to sea
level rise; there are options available to address sea level rise.
Mapping of Vulnerability on Food Insecurity

Eulito U. Bautista, PhD
National Project Manager, Philippines
AMICAF Project of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO): Quezon City, Philippines
The AMICAF Project. The AMICAF is a comprehensive framework by the Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) of the United Nations that aims to address climate change impacts and
adaptation planning targeted at improving the food security of vulnerable household groups and
also to address the link between Climate Change and Food Security. The AMICAF framework is
currently being implemented in the Philippines in coordination with the Department of
Agriculture that started in January of 2012 and will end on October 2014 with the funds from the
Government of Japan (GoJ). The same project was also implemented in Peru. As a result of the
project, there are 49 provinces that were classified as vulnerable to food insecurity. Out of the 49
provinces, there were 3 provinces were classified to be very, very vulnerable while 8 provinces
as very vulnerable, 38 and 10 provinces were considered vulnerable and less vulnerable
respectively. In the future climate change the following results were found: (a) the decrease in
the annual rainfall by 2030 will lead to 0.0013 increases in the probability of being food poor; (b)
similarly, the decrease in annual rainfall by 2050 will lead to increase in the probability of being
food poor by 0.44 percent; and (c) the decrease in the minimum temperature in 2030 will lead to
0.09 percent decrease in the probability of being food poor. On the other hand, the increase in the
minimum temperature in 2050 will lead to increase in the probability of being food poor by 0.3
percent.
The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC said that the climate change is very, very likely due
to anthropogenic emission of greenhouse at which exceeds the recorded in ice cores for the last
800,000 years. Further, AR5 dealt with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
RCPs are four GHG concentration trajectories at which each pathway describes a future value of
radiative forcing in 2100 in the aim to provide a range of climate model responses
rather than derived from socio-economic storylines. However, the current
projection in the Philippines was still based on SRES of AR4 which had a
preliminary result on rainfall that in the entire Philippines have increasing trend in rainfall while
the lowest increase are found in the eastern Philippines and the highest increase are found in
Luzon. In terms of average temperature on the other hand, both projections (A1B and A2) show
that the entire Philippines will have increasing trend and in A1B the highest increase is found in
National Capital Region (NCR) while in A2, the highest increase is found in the urbanized
region.
Preliminary Results. With the new assessment of IPCC and the preliminary results on the climate
projections in the Philippines, the climate change adaptation and mitigation should take place to
minimize the impact of impending climate change. The Philippiness adaptation strategy was
mandated by Climate Change Act of 2009 and having the fund to initiate these activities is thru
another law that will finance the adaptation and mitigation project on the local community with
the use of People Survival Fund. The involvement of the community to become climate change
adaptive and resilient is very crucial since it will cater the need of the people on the ground.
Sea level rise and food insecurity are one of the highly probable impact of changing climate both
on the global and local scale. Philippines being an archipelagic country is highly vulnerable to
climate change and most of the communities live in the coastal area which is highly exposed to
the impact of sea level rise. As our environment changes due to changing climate the issue on
food insecurity became one of the outmost concerns. With the result from the AMICAF project
shows that 49 provinces in the Philippines are vulnerable to food insecurity and three (3) out of
the 49 provinces was considered as very, very vulnerable to food insecurity.
SESSION 3
STATE-OF-THE-ART TECHNOLOGIES
Section Editor

Session Chairperson
Vice President, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines
Jorybell A. Masallo
Session Rapporteur
Summary
The occurrence of extreme weather and climate events in the recent decade served as a
challenge to develop new technologies that will be used to mitigate the impacts and as response
mechanism in the future occurrence of these events. Recently the Philippine Weather Bureau,
PAGASA, adopt the use of Meteorological RADARs and continuously using the available
meteorological satellite. This leads to PAGASA to acquire the RAINWATCHER that it is cost
effective since it has high reliability, long life span and low maintenance cost and also had
polarimetric capability which can identify hydrometeors size, shape and type, identify regions
or area where there is a mixture of precipitation types such as rains and snow, be a good
indicator of high rainfall rate and reduces the impact of attenuation due to propagation through
precipitation. The continuous contribution of PAGASA to the spaced base improvement of
satellite based observation system in line with WMO Space Programme. There is a need for the
Philippines to invest more on the modern monitoring facilities to address the demand from
various stakeholders. As the technology improves the demand also increases and people should
also adapt to the improvement as we badly wanted to reach the goal.
RAINWATCHER: Polarimetric Radar Rainfall Sensor with full Solid State Technology
Engr. Jose Rolando Lamac
Chief Engineer
Engr. Vincent Gil Tuazon

Telecom Engineer
Japan Radio Company Ltd. Co.
PAGASA uses meteorological radar in monitoring and forecasting weather systems. Recently,
the Philippines is using the Doppler Radar system that has a capability to monitor not only the
amount of precipitation in the cloud but also the movement of these precipitation droplets. The
Japan Radio Company (JRC) introduces the use of solid state S-band Meteorological Radar in
the Philippines in 2011. JRC started developing the Doppler Radar sensor since 1981 and
developed the X-band Meteorological Radar in 2008 and in 2012 they introduced the
RAINWATCHER X-band Full Solid State Polarimetric Radar. JRC also supplied 18 out of the
29 radars installed by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), 15 out of 56 radars installed by
the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT). Both of which are found in Japan. In
the Philippines, JRC installed three (3) solid-state radar located in Aparri, Cagayan, Virac
Catanduanes, and Guiuan, Eastern Samar.
In the coming years, JRC will provide the Mobile X-band Radar to the Philippines. The
RAINWATCHER of JRC is a polarimetric X-Band Radar System that uses Solid State Power
Amplifier (SSPA) to detect meteorological phenomena such as rain and snow within 80 km
radius. The system had (a) dual polarization and doppler function, (b) full solid state technology,
(c) compact and lightweight, (d) short time for start-up, no tuning and pre-heating required, (e)
low power consumption 1KVA @ 100-230VAC 1, (f) minimal equipment configuration, (g)
suitable for fixed installation, mobile and transportable application, (h) high accuracy rainfall
sensor, (i) minimum observation area 150m mesh. JRC also develops its own software which
provides optimized observation data for easier meteorological analysis. The approximate weight
of the radome, antenna and pedestal is 600 kg. The RAINWATCHER also provide remote
monitoring by utilizing internet cloud where the radar task controller and meteorological product
workstation is connected via local area network (LAN) which is situated in the radar station
while the radar display workstation is situated remote from the radar station. The X-band Radar
can be used in aviation weather services, landslide monitoring, road and traffic management,
river or water management, dam discharge operation, urban flood warning system, landslide and
mud flow at volcanic area and weather information services for disaster management, mass
media, government offices for both local and national levels, public organization and academe.
On the other hand, the mobile X-band radar can be used in localize weather monitoring during
special event like Olympics and festivals, survey for the fix radar installation, fill the gap for the
blind spot of fix radar, detection of torrential rain, back-up unit for fix radar,
detection of wind burst at airport, rain gauge for dam basin during severe weather
condition and for the storm chasers. The RAINWATCHER can provide various
meteorological radar products for forecasting and warning, research and analysis. The difference
between the conventional radar and solid state radar is on the power generation or amplification.
Conventional radar uses vacuum tubes such as Magnetron, Klystron, etc. for power generation or
amplification that (1) the equipment start-up needs preheating and/or tuning, (2) high transmitter
output power, (3) high commercial power consumption, approx. 10kVA (S-Band), (4) bulky and
heavier equipment, takes time to do maintenance and (5) amplifier life-span of around 8k 20k
hours. On the other hand, solid state radar uses RF semiconductor devices for power
amplification that (1) has quick equipment start-up, no preheating and tuning required, (2)
Effective low transmitter output power, (3) Lower commercial power consumption, approx.
8kVA (S-Band), (4) Compact and lightweight equipment, easy to maintain and amplifier life
span of around 128k hours. In summary of the comparison of conventional and solid state radar
that it is cost effective since it has high reliability, long life span and low maintenance cost and
also had polarimetric capability which can identify hydrometeors size, shape and type, identify
regions or area where there is a mixture of precipitation types such as rains and snow, be a good
indicator of high rainfall rate and reduces the impact of attenuation due to propagation through
precipitation.
DOST PAGASA Meteorological Satellite Facility and Its Relevance to WMO Space
Program
Vicente Palcon Jr.5
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Space Programme aims to promote availability
and utilization of satellite data and products for weather, climate, water and related applications
to WMO members. Also it coordinates environmental satellite matters and activities throughout
all WMO Programmes and gives guidance on potential of remote-sensing techniques in
meteorology, hydrology and related disciplines. The strategic plans of the programme prioritized
the space based sub-system of the Global Observing System (GOS) which includes operational
meteorological LEO satellites, operational meteorological geostationary satellites and
environmental research and development satellites. The Programme is moving toward WMO
Integrated GOS that can address 3 Earth-system domains (atmosphere, ocean, land) and 2 crosscutting themes (climate, natural disaster reduction). The GOS includes 12 operational
geostationary satellites, 6 operational sun-synchronous and R&D satellites in polar orbit. The
recently launched satellites are Megha-Tropiques (ISRO-CNES), Suomi-NPP (NOAA), FY-2F
(CMA), GCOM-W (JAXA), MSG-3 (EUMETSAT) and Metop-B (EUMETSAT). The
trends in space-based observation in terms of (a) technology: it increase in
Mr. Palcon is currently with the Weather Division of PAGASA-DOST.
performances and data flows , Earth Orbiting (EO) providers have more space-faring nations and
EO applications will be dominant data source of weather (NWP) & climate observation,
irreplaceable support for disaster management and potential for many other applications which
not fully realized; (b) users: it has an expanding global user community though not equally able
to access and benefit; (c) societal demand: EO services at minimum cost which demonstrate the
benefit to cost, optimize the global system and explore different business models. The 10-Year
GEOSS Implementation Plan focused on nine societal benefit areas such as natural and humaninduced disasters, environmental factors affecting human health, management of energy
resources, climate variability and change , water resource management / water cycle, improving
weather information, forecasting, and warning, terrestrial, coastal, and marine ecosystems,
sustainable agriculture and combating desertification and biodiversity. In the Philippines,
PAGASA meteorological satellite facility includes NOAA AVHRR receiving system, MTSAT
ground receiving system, CMACast (Fengyun) receiving system, MODIS ground receiving
system and Suomi NPP Receiving System. One of the functions of PAGASA is to monitor
severe or significant weather system by using available tools and equipment such as satellite.
Satellite imagery is a powerful tool to support very-short range forecasting, including nowcasting
especially in the absence of operational radar coverage. This can be done through the provision
of near-real time products to monitor and track convective development, estimating rainfall rates,
wind speed and direction over large water surfaces, significant wave heights, water levels, seasurface temperature and many other parameters. Further, PAGASA aims to establish a network
of facilities ensuring enhanced and sustained provision of high-quality satellite products related
to nowcasting these are intended to cover: consistent basic nowcasting products, aviation
products, precipitation products and near-real-time ocean-surface vector winds. PAGASA also
needs to strengthen weather and climate forecasting capabilities to support disaster mitigation
activities may be supported with data and information derived from multi-spectral band imaging
instrument. The capability for environmental monitoring requires closer spatial and temporal
scales possible with multi-spectral observing system that brought to the need for modern
monitoring system for the Philippines.
SESSION 4
CURRENT INITIATIVES RELATED TO EXTREME WEATHER AND

CLIMATE EVENTS
Rosemarie Ann Marasigan

Section Editor
Edna L. Juanillo
Session Chairperson
Former President, Philippine Meteorological Society: Quezon City, Philippines
Session Rapporteur
Summary
For years, the effects of the extreme weather events have been exposed in the lives of the people.
The world knows how droughts, floods, typhoons, heavy rains, and even strong winds can
change the fate of their lives. However, despite of the great experiences we already had, we are
still being caught over and over again with surprise by the impacts of these catastrophic events
because of the same reasons: unawareness and unpreparedness. Because of this, the Philippine
Meteorological Society (PMS) introduced the current initiatives related to the extreme weather
and climate events. Among the focus of the session are the (1) agriculture and food security; (2)
design of structures for wind and NSCP 6th edition 2010; and (3) comprehensive land use plan
(CLUP).
The sector that has the greatest vulnerability to the impacts of the extreme weather events is the
agriculture. It is among the sectors that are sensitive to the change of weather. As a matter of
fact, the success and failure in agriculture depends primarily to the weather. Extreme weather
events can bring threat to our national and local food security. In order for us to develop deep
understanding in dealing with this challenge, we need an organization that will directly focus on
this subject. Since the confidence of our food security generally depends on rice,
the initiatives of the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in engaging to
the farmers, continuous study and developments for rice, and policy assistances are great help in
dealing with the extreme weather and climate events.
Due to the direct exposure to typhoons, there is a prominent hazards caused by strong winds
particularly at the eastern section of the country. The damages and loss of the properties were
the result of the insufficient attention to the suitable planning of the structural design and the
land use. To increase our security, we need to apply the proper constructions for strong winds.
The Association of Structural Engineers in the Philippines (ASEP) developed structural designs
for winds in order to cope with the changing climate. However, these designs would never be
effective as it supposed to be without the proper planning of land uses. Several laws have
already been enacted to incorporate adaptation and mitigation to CLUP.
Agriculture and Food Security: International Setting

Reiner Wassman, PhD
Senior Scientist, International Rice Research Institute: Laguna, Philippines
Extensive studies. IRRI started studying the effects of temperature on rice using growth chamber
technique in 1961. This one year of comprehensive study was continued only after a decade
when they performed studies on the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2) enrichment on rice in opentop chambers during 1971 to 1972. IRRI began to conduct researches and studies in 1991 on the
effects of UV-B and global climate change on rice. From that year up to 1999, they made their
broad studies on the effects of methane (CH4) emissions, temperature, carbon dioxide (CO2), and
UV-B effects and modelling. Since 2006, comprehensive program on mitigation, adaptations and
impacts assessments is being conducted in close collaboration with their national partners.
Practicality of results. In identifying the preferences of the stakeholders, IRRI is engaging the
farmers through participatory approaches to ensure realistic results. This involves the stakeholder
interaction and the participatory varietal selection.
The stakeholder interaction is the participatory selection of farmers preferences and on-site
demonstration trials. It extends through farmer field school, seminars and workshops, and
training of trainers. The simple protocol for alternate wetting and drying (AWD), a controlled
irrigation that can reduce water demand and greenhouse gas emissions by eliminating methane,
is one of the applications for this approach.
To provide a venue for breeders and agronomists to learn which varieties perform
well and preferred by farmers, the participatory varietal selection is applied. This
incorporates social, economic, and gender analyses in rice breeding and involves
both men and women in the selection of new rice lines. When the improved variety of
submarino (flood-tolerant rice that can withstand submergence for up to two weeks) has been
released in the Philippines, IRRI used this kind of approach in their study.
Response to climate change. Mobile phone applications and yield forecast based on remote
sensing are among the tools and information that IRRI suggests in improving the response to the
changing climate.
The Climate-Informed Rice Crop and Low Emission (CIRCLE) Manager is a mobile phone
application that comprise of rice crop management and new modules. The first includes
information about nutrients, field preparation, and crop establishments while the new modules
involve greenhouse gas (GHG) emission calculator and climate-adjusted yield targets. These are
obtain site-specific information from the farmer or operator.
High resolution information on crop status in the form of rice crop maps can be used for yield
forecast. For decision-making related to food security, it is crucial to know when and where rice
is planted and harvested. Ongoing research under the Remote Sensing-based information and
insurance for Crops in emerging Economies (RIICE) project will provide even more detailed rice
crop calendars for each season. This information is capable to show rice areas and the late rice
areas. In the presentation that was shown in this session, Mr. Wassmann demonstrated that this
information has been useful in identifying the areas that were likely harvested before Typhoon
Yolanda hit Tacloban and the areas that were likely still in the field at the time of the typhoon.
Rice is highly susceptible to heat stress, particularly during the reproductive and ripening stages.
Very high temperatures during flowering stage can cause infertility while reduced grain filling
and poor milling quality can be the result during ripening. The daytime heat stress is the
maximum temperature that is greater than 35C for ten days during the period and the nighttime
heat stress is the minimum temperature greater than 25C for 15 days during the period. The
regional frequency of heat stress assess recent occurrence of heat stress instead of climate change
scenarios.
Policies. IRRI works with different stakeholders in the regional context of Southeast Asia
through policy advice. Policymakers of ASEAN and its member countries will be able to make
informed decisions on: (1) specific policy measures in the rice sector including input subsidies,
price supports, national procurement or stocks; (2) possible adaptation option to enhance
resilience to climate variability, shocks, and progressive climate change; and (3) related policies
such as mitigation programs.
Design of Structures for Wind and NCSP 6th Edition 2010

Engr. Carlos M. Villaraza
Vice President, Association of Structural Engineers in the Philippines (ASEP)
The maximum sustained winds. The maximum sustained winds is always related to the intensity
of the tropical cyclone. Generally, it is along the eyewall. Thus, typhoons with higher maximum
sustained winds have greater damages. Among the well-known typhoons that brought great
destruction to the country are Typhoon Pablo and Typhoon Yolanda. These typhoons left the
affected areas totally devastated with a significant number of fatalities.
It is important that people are in a safe place during the passage of the tropical cyclone. Many
evacuation centers and even houses are not designed to withstand such strong winds. Thus, the
result becomes more tragic for the people living in the affected area.
Exposure Categories. In the latest edition of NSCP (National Structural Code of the Philippines)
6th Edition of 2010 (NSCP 6e 2010), Exposure A was deleted. This category was defined from
the NSCP 5th Edition of 2001 as large city centers with at least 50% of the buildings having a
height in excess of 21 meters. Exposure B (urban and suburban areas, wooded areas, or other
terrain with numerous closely spaced obstructions having the size of single-family dwellings or
larger) prevails in the upwind direction at a distance of at least 800 meters or twenty (20) times
the height of the building, whichever is greater. Exposure D (flat, unobstructed areas and water
surfaces; includes smooth mud flats and sat flats) prevails in the upwind direction for a distance
greater than 1500 meters or twenty (20) times the building height, which is greater. For all cases
where Exposure B or D is invalid, Exposure C is being applied. These are open terrain with
scattered obstructions having heights generally less than 9 meters. It includes flat open country,
grasslands, and all water surfaces in regions with records of extreme typhoons.
Wind Zone Map. Based from the NSCP 6th Edition of 2010, the wind zone map of the Phillipines
are divided into three (3): Zone I (wind speed of 250 kph), Zone II (wind speed of 200 kph), and
Zone III (wind speed of 150 kph). Compared to the older edition of NSCP 5e 2001, the wind
speed for Zone III is only 125 kph. The proposed wind map divides Zone I into two (2): Zone 1A
(wind speed of 300 kph) and Zone 1B (wind speed of 250 kph). Zone III is also divided into
Zone 3A (wind speed of 150 kph) and Zone 3B (wind speed of 125 kph).
Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in the

Comprehensive Land Use Plan
Atty. Linda Malena- Hornilla
Commissioner, Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB)
What is land use? Land use is the rational and judicious approach of allocating available land
resources to different land use activities (residential, agricultural, and industrial) consistent with
the overall development vision and goal of a particular locality. It is associated with
Comprehensive Land Use Plan (CLUP), a document embodying specific proposals for guiding
and regulating the growth and development of a city or municipality. The formulation and
updating of CLUP is a mandated function of all local government units (LGUs). Its legal
implementing tool is a zoning ordinance. Land use planning can determine the municipalitys
susceptibility to hazards and climate change impacts, identify elements that can potentially be
affected, conduct risk and vulnerability assessments, define land use policy areas according to
level of risk and vulnerability, and select high risk areas and vulnerable sectors which need more
detailed assessment and planning.
CLUP Guidelines and Steps. Prior to the Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk
Reduction (DRR), there are twelve (12) steps to CLUP: (1) getting organized; (2) identifying
stakeholders; (3) setting the vision; (4) analyzing the situation; (5) setting the goals and
objectives; (6) establishing development and thrusts and spatial strategies; (7) preparing the land
use plan; (8) drafting the zoning ordinance; (9) conducting public hearing on the draft CLUP and
zoning ordinance; (10) reviewing, adopting, and approving the CLUP and zoning ordinance; (11)
implementing the CLUP and zoning ordinance; and (12) monitoring, reviewing, and evaluating
the CLUP and zoning ordinance.
The presentation of Atty. Hornilla was focused on the fourth step which answers Where are we
now? since the risk and suitability analysis such as the study of physical environment, existing
land use and development trends, natural hazards, ECAs/ ECPs, and preservation and
conservation areas are involved. The assessment for the demographic and sectorial studies and
projections are also considered in this process.
The CLUP Guidebooks is convenient to CCA and DRR in finding the (1) use of climate
information and projections; (2) climate indicators and relative risk or effects; (3) formulation
and implementation of risk mitigation plans, programs, projects and activities; (4) land use
policies and regulations; and (5) enforcement of comprehensive land use planning, building, and
safety standards and legislation.
HLURB initiatives in CCA and DRRM for the CLUP. The Climate Change Act of
2009 (RA No. 9729) and Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act of 2010
(RA No. 10121) integrates climate change adaptation and risk reduction in land use and
development planning through policies, actions, and tools for implementation over the long term
that will result in a reduction in vulnerabilities and hazard impacts. These also state that all the
information regarding the hazards and progression of risks that can affect a community should be
available for local planners.
The Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) has converge and partnered with CCA
and DRR for the (1) NEDA-Aus-Aid Project (integrating DRR and CCA in local development
planning and decision-making processes); (2) CC-UNDP-Aus-Aid (Project Twin Phoenix); (3)
NDRRMC-GMMA RESILIENCE Project (building community resilience and strengthening
local government capacities for recovery and disaster risk management); (4) NDRRMC-GMMA
READY Project (enhancing Greater Metro Manila Areas institutional capacities for effective
disaster and climate risk management towards sustainable development); and (5) HLURB-GIZ
eCLUP Project (enhancement of CLUP Guidelines and model zoning ordinance).
Enhanced CLUP. The Enhanced CLUP 2013 has eight (8) elements: (1) integration of CCA and
DRR; (2) adoption of the R2R framework; (3) integration of public and private land use
management; (4) integration of ancestral lands, biodiversity, cultural heritage, forestlands,
coastal and inland waters, and protected areas; (5)inclusion of green growth and urban design;
(6) inter-LGU and inter-agency arrangements; (7) precedence of spatial physical plans over other
forms of plans; and (8) linkage of CLUP to the PPFP and other plans. HLURB enhances the
CLUP Guidebooks not only to mainstream CCA and DRRM but to develop also an all-inclusive
physical plan through the integration of coastal and forest lands and other special planning areas
and concerns in the municipal land use planning. This will provide (1) guide in reviewing
existing local hazard information; (2) guide for hazard characterization; (3) data collection guide
of elements at risk; and (4) constructing a local climate change scenario.
Why involve CCA and DRR to eCLUP? Enhanced CLUP can improve the role of the CCA and
DRR. It can help them (1) prevent future development in possible areas that are highly
susceptible to hazards; (2) keep land use intensity, buildings value, and occupancy to a minimum
in areas where development cannot be prevented; (3) protect life and existing development from
losses; (4) conserve protective environmental systems; and (5) prevent future development from
creating conditions that contribute to risk.
Policy options and zoning regulations. The area is divided to five zones: (1) soft and hard
engineering approaches; (2) accommodation; (3) avoidance; (4) relocation; and (5) protection.
The soft and hard engineering demands ensuring existence of healthy habitats through
management of ecosystem integrity (soft) and employment of engineering
structures (hard). This applies to the coastal areas. In the settlement area,
accommodation recommends disaster resistant structures for essential facilities
and habitation. Avoidance means not building of future structures mainly at the agricultural land
area. Relocation entrails provisions for relocating existing structures from highly hazardous areas
and protection pertains to the security of the watershed for freshwater sources.
The area is also divided into (1) high risk zone; (2) medium risk zone; and (3) low risk zone.
Based from the policy options and regulations presented by Atty. Hornilla, each zones assigned
one evacuation area depending on the extent of the hazard such as sea level rise, storm surge and
tsunami. The low risk zone is the safest location of the evacuation area. The projected sea level
rise and erosion area, storm surge inundation area, and tsunami inundation area were also shown
in this zoning map.
SESSION 5
Recent Development in the Field of Hydrometeorology and Other Allied Sciences

Session Chairperson
Session Rapporteur
Summary
Extreme weather and climate events are becoming more frequent in recent years. Some of these
events include the July 2007 unconventional dry spell, Typhoon Yolanda in 2013, Habagat 2012
and 2013, and El Nino 2009-2010. Understanding these events through technological
advancements can steer proper decision and precautionary measures to reduce the possible loss
of lives and damages to properties.
One key component in this seeming understanding of hydrometeorology is development of new
technologies and practices such as high resolution weather and climate models, coastal hazard
mapping, social media platforms, ICT network, Doppler radar networks, and satellite and
remote sensing applications.
It is undeniable that ICT and advanced technologies provide us tools to mitigate if not to surpass
threats posed by disasters. Some countries are already using hard engineering structures to stop
tsunami waves while some have built mega dikes to prevent flooding. Other areas evaded
impending disasters because of good ICT network and communication platform.
This session will present technologies and scientific advancements available in the Philippines to
mitigate the effects of disasters and climate change impacts.
July 2007 Unconventional Dry Spell6

Esperanza O. Cayanan, Ph.D.
President, Philippine Meteorological Society
Assistant Weather Services Chief, NCR-PAGASA Regional Services Division7
Drought or dry spell is an event associated with inadequate amount of water to fill in the
requirements for agriculture, energy, industrial and residential water, and environmental sector.
The measurement of drought or dry spell is expressed in terms of rainfall deficiency using
comparison between the observed rainfall and climatological normal in a given month. This is
referred to as percent of normal or the percentile part of observed rainfall against the average
rainfall over 30 years. The rainfall is categorize as above normal when there is greater than 120
percent normal, near normal if the percent normal is between 81-120%, below normal if the
range is in between 41-80%, and below normal if the percent normal is below 40%.
A drought is characterized by three (3) consecutive months of way below normal rainfall while
dry spell is defined as three (3) consecutive months of below normal rainfall. Low rainfall
amounts are usually recorded in the March-April-May in the Philippines, consequentially called
dry months and June-July-August-September as wet months. In this note, the July 2007 dry spell
is considered as unconventional since the dry spell happened on wet months particularly JuneJuly 2007. The affected areas include Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Region, Cagayan
Valley, Central Luzon, and Metro Manila. This dry spell significantly affected the agricultural as
well as the water sectors in the Philippines. On a meteorological platform, the 2007 dry spell was
caused by the persistence of the ridge of North Pacific high pressure area towards Luzon and the
displacement of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) to the south, which is normally
located across the country. The absence of tropical cyclone (TC) in the month of June and below
number of TC in July exacerbated the dry condition. Only one tropical cyclone entered the
Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) during July, compared to four (4) TC on the average for
the month. Massive information and education campaign was done by PAGASA to discuss and
explained this phenomenon that is very unusual.
A discussion on the effects and impacts of July 2007 Dry Spell were articulated in the paper of
Yumul et al. (2010).
Graciano P. Yumul Jr., Nathaniel A. Cruz, Carla B. Dimalanta, Nathaniel T. Servando, Flaviana D. Hilario. The 2007 dry spell
in Luzon (Philippines): its cause, impact and corresponding response measures. Climatic Change. June 2010, Volume 100, Issue
3-4, pp 633-644
7
Dr. Cayanan has been designated as the Officer-in-charge of PAGASA Weather Division as of this writing.
Storm Surge and Coastal Hazard Mapping in the Philippines

Nestor B. Nimes8
Senior Weather Specialist, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines
One of the impacts of Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) is the loss of lives of more than 5000 people
and most of these numbers were attributed with the storm surge associated with the typhoon in
November 2013. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge were also experienced during the
passage of TY Yolanda. Storm surge is the sudden increase or abnormal rise in sea water level
associated with the passage of either tropical storm or typhoon. This is a combination of different
factors which includes push of strong winds on the water surface (wind setup), the piling up of
big waves (wave setup), the pressure setup (storm central pressure), and astronomical tide
moving towards the shore like a dome of water.
Astronomical tide is the increase in sea level due to lunar or solar tides and its effect to storm
surges is minimal. Pressure set up is the increase in seawater level due to the lower atmospheric
pressure in the interior of the tropical cyclone. Seawater rises approximately 1cm for every drop
in the atmospheric pressure. Wind set-up is the increase in seawater level due to the force of the
wind that produces currents in the surface layers of seawater. This is also a factor in shallow
areas, where seawater levels will rise pushed by the winds cannot flow out of the area as quickly
as it arrives and the effect of the wind is dominant if the depth is approximately less than 100
meters. Wave set up is the increase in the still seawater levels as result of mass transport by
breaking waves. Storm surges only happen at a landfall or passage of tropical storm or typhoon
in the locality and might be ahead, during or following the coming of strong winds from the
tropical storm or typhoon. The strong wind of a tropical cyclone is found at the right front
quadrant (RFQ) of its track. The effect of storm will depend on the following factors such as the
angle of attack, forward speed, coastal configuration, type of slope and surge effect.
In the Philippines, the storm surges can reach from 3 meters up to 10 meters high. The impact of
storm surges particularly those living in coastal area include destruction of offshore houses and
shelter, fishing vessels, loss of lives, coastal inundation, flooding in low lying areas, coastal
erosion, damage to dikes, sea walls and structures.
The people in the coastal communities are advised to take shelter to high and safe areas
whenever there is a threat of storm surge occurrence. Due to the impact of storm surge, in 2006
the READY project was conducted to do hazard mapping and assessment for effective
community-based disaster risk management that initiates the Storm Surge Hazard Mapping in the
For futher information on storm surge-related activities and research by PAGASA, Mr. Nestor Nimes is currently
with the Air-Sea Interaction Research Unit (ASIRU) of PAGASA-DOST
Philippines. There were 27 provinces covered by the READY project and hazard maps were
produced including the storm surge hazard maps.
Role of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and Social Network in Disaster
Management9
Arnel R. Manoos
Weather Facilities Specialist III, PAGASA: Quezon City, Philippines
According to United Nation Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (UNESCAP), the Asia and the Pacific is the most disaster-prone region in the world. In 2011,
Tropical Storm Sendong (Washi), considered as one of the top 10 disaster in terms of number of
death, crossed the region (Annual Disaster Statistical Review, 2011.
According to the words from John D. Rockefeller I always tried to turn every disaster into an
opportunity we can transform these disasters into an opportunity to look back on how we can
better prepare ourselves for such eventualities.10
It is essential to understand disaster management cycles in studying the roles of Information and
Communication Technology (ICT) in disaster management. Disaster management cycle involves
(1) mitigation, risk reduction and prevention, (2) preparedness, (3) response and (4) recovery
phases. In disaster risk reduction through risk assessment phase, ICT plays a vital role in
monitoring disaster using satellite communication and GIS tools, which can be used for drought,
flood, global warming, among others. Through early warning, ICT plays its role in disaster
preparedness by using all means of communication and latest technology such as meteorological
radar, radiosonde station, wind profiler, meteorological buoy and automatic weather stations and
utilizing the technology of integrated high performance computing system (IHPC) to process and
integrate into the high resolution numerical weather prediction model such as the Weather and
Research Forecasting (WRF) model. Also the use of telecommunications and ICT in
disseminating the warnings and forecasts to the public by using fixed and mobile telephones,
internet and email and social networking sites (SNSs) such as Twitter and Facebook. In
conclusion, ICT and the people working hand-in-hand can significantly reduce or mitigate the
losses brought by the disasters.
For further information on the ICT facilities and infrastructure of PAGASA-DOST, Engr. Arnel Manoos is
currently with the Engineering and Administrative Division of PAGASA-DOST
10
Reference is attributed to the presentation of Engr. Arnel Manoos of PAGASA-DOST before the Convention.
Dynamical Downscaling of Selected CMIP3 Models for Southeast Asia using the PRECIS
Regional Climate Model
Thelma A. Cinco
A study on the dynamical downscaling of selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

Phase 3 (CMIP3) models in Southeast Asia (ASEAN) using Providing REgional Climates for
Impact Studies (PRECIS) Regional Climate Model (RCM) aims to understand past changes in
the climate parameters of surface air temperature and rainfall for individual ASEAN countries in
order to also analyze future projections.
Climate modeling at the regional and national levels is an important decision & policy making
tool for assessing the impact of changing climate. This downscaling project was initiated because
Global Climate Models (GCMs) has coarse resolution and to capture local climate effects, finer
scale resolution models that should be used in climate studies.
RCM was used to dynamically downscale the output of GCM it also includes the atmosphere and
land surface components of the climate system (at least) and it contains representations of the
important processes within the climate system e.g. clouds, radiation, precipitation. An example
of a regional climate model is PRECIS, which can be applied to most areas at the global scale. It
can also be used to generate detailed projections of future climate. It has simple user interface to
set up and run an RCM and PRECIS provides utilities for users to manipulate RCM output.
Preliminary Results. The summary of results shows that the output surface air temperature from
the models for each individual ASEAN country was able to capture the variability of temperature
with different levels of confidence. Generally, the biases patterns of seasonal rainfall simulation
is much noisier that surface air temperature and the simulations produce moderate wet biases of
about 20-40% through the years, except over the western part of the Indo-China where the biases
are largely negative.
Large wet biases of greater than 80 percent were simulated over the Cambodia and central region
of the Borneo Island during December-January-February (DJF) and March-April-May (MAM).
For the future climate projections, generally the temperature changes patterns are very similar
over the four seasons considered with slightly higher warming rate during DJF; seasonal mean
temperature increase by the middle of the century, the estimated temperature is 2-4C warmer
than the present day and towards the end of the century with increment of 3-5C.
The increment shows considerable spatial variations with faster rate of warming simulated over
the land area compared to the South China Sea area; unlike for temperature,
changes in rainfall show remarkable spatial and seasonal variations; the
projections show drier climate over the sea areas and wetter climate over the land.
The land-sea contrast is more obvious toward the end of the century. Drier climate is projected
over most areas during boreal winter except central Indo-China in all of the HadCM3Q driven
simulations; however, wetter climate was projected south of the equator in ECHAM5. During
June-July-August (JJA all the simulations projected wetter climate over the land area except
HadCM3Q10 with climate over the central Indo-China projected to be approximately 40% drier
compare to the baseline period. The projected changes for September-October-November (SON)
toward the end of century are very similar to that of the JJA with increasing season rainfall of 2040% over most of the areas that are projected to get wetter.
There is a reasonable representation of present day TCs (except for SCS in JJAS). There is a
consistent decrease in TC frequency projected, 10-23% mid-century, 32-53% by the end of the
century. A consistent increase in precipitation associated with a TC, 6-13% mid-century, and 1227% by the end of the century. The possible cause for the decrease in tropical circulation and
increased precipitation is due to increased water vapor content in warmer atmosphere.
PHILIPPINE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Board of Trustees & Officers
2013-2014
President
Vice- President
Business Manager
Delia T. Basco
Board of Trustee
Robert Z. Quinto
Board of Trustee
Analiza S. Solis
Board of Trustee
Jorybell A. Masallo
Board of Trustee
Adelaida C. Duran
Board of Trustee
Board of Trustee
Aniceta B. Garcia
Treasurer
Rhonalyn L. Vergara
Secretary
Assistant Secretary
PHILIPPINE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Board of Trustees & Officers
2014-2015
President
Vice- President
Business Manager
Delia T. Basco
Board of Trustee
Robert Z. Quinto
Board of Trustee
Ma. Cecilia Monteverde
Board of Trustee
Jorybell A. Masallo
Board of Trustee
Board of Trustee
Rhonalyn V. Macalalad
Board of Trustee
Aniceta B. Garcia
Treasurer
Rosemarie A. Marasigan
Secretary
Mary May Victoria Capulong
Assistant Secretary
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
SKYLAND TRAVEL & TOURS
In memoriam Dr. Susan R. Espinueva, Former PMS President and patron to the
advancement of meteorology and hydrology in the Philippines

9th Philippine Meteorological Society Convention Proceedings

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9th Philippine Meteorological Society Convention Proceedings

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1|9th PMS Convention Proceedings (2014)

Updates on IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)

3. Current initiatives related to extreme weather and climate events

4. State of the Art Technologies

3|9th PMS Convention Proceedings (2014)

CONVENTION ORGANIZING COMMITTEE

4|9th PMS Convention Proceedings (2014)

CONVENTION PROCEEDINGS COMMITTEE

5|9th PMS Convention Proceedings (2014)

Understanding Extreme Weather and Climate Events

Typhoon Yolanda: An In-Depth Analysis by Raymond C. Ordinario

Update in Climate Change Projections and CCA in the Philippines

Current Initiatives Related to Extreme Weather and Climate Events

State of the Art Technologies

Agriculture and Food Security: International Setting by Reiner Wassman

6|9th PMS Convention Proceedings (2014)

Current Development of Allied Sciences

July 2007 Unconventional Dry Spell by Esperanza O. Cayanan

Roster of PMS Officers

7|9th PMS Convention Proceedings (2014)

UNDERSTANDING EXTREME WEATHER AND CLIMATE EVENTS

Engr. Fredolina Baldonado1

8|9th PMS Convention Proceedings (2014)

Impact of Typhoon Yolanda on Power Transmission System

Comparison of Typhoon Yolanda with 1912 Typhoon

Section Editors Note

Current Climate Change Projection in the Philippines3

Developed under FAO AMICAF Project of PAGASA and AMICAF Philippines

Climate Change Adaptation in the Philippines: Government Perspective

Mapping of Vulnerability on Food Insecurity

Ma. Cecilia A. Monteverde

Engr. Vincent Gil Tuazon

Mr. Palcon is currently with the Weather Division of PAGASA-DOST.

CURRENT INITIATIVES RELATED TO EXTREME WEATHER AND

Rosemarie Ann Marasigan

Agriculture and Food Security: International Setting

Design of Structures for Wind and NCSP 6th Edition 2010

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction in the

Recent Development in the Field of Hydrometeorology and Other Allied Sciences

July 2007 Unconventional Dry Spell6

Storm Surge and Coastal Hazard Mapping in the Philippines

A study on the dynamical downscaling of selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

PHILIPPINE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

PHILIPPINE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

SKYLAND TRAVEL & TOURS

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