Webinar Measurement Uncertainty

The Impact of Uncertainty on
Industrial Flow Measurement

Alick MacGillivray
Consultant
9 July 2013
Contents
Introductory slides:
Why is measurement important?
The UK National Measurement Office (NMO) and
the National Measurement System (NMS)
Main presentation:
Basic uncertainty theory

The cost of errors
Types of uncertainty
Examples
Why is measurement important?

Each year in the UK
342 BILLION
worth of goods, gas and
electricity
are sold on the basis of
the measurement of
their quantity to
consumers.
NMS
National Measurement System
The NMS is responsible for

stimulating good measurement
practice and enabling business to
make accurate and traceable
measurements, for the benefit of
the nation
NEL
UK National Standards for Flow
Measurement
Oil
Water
Gas
Multiphase
Flow measurement consultancy
Energy,
Oil & Gas
Low Carbon
Technologies
Environment
Main Presentation:
The Impact of Uncertainty on Industrial
Flow Measurement
Its important!
In uncertainty lies the drama of life
ERIC CANTONA
ex-footballer and actor
Making measurements
Measuring instruments give an
ESTIMATE
of the true value.
They DO NOT give the true value
The true value is UNKNOWN
What is uncertainty?
An INTERVAL either side of the
measurement
result within which we expect the true value to
lie
(with a given confidence)
UNCERTAINTY
True Value
Indicated value
Confidence level
The LIKELIHOOD that real value of a measurement
will lie within a specified interval.
The larger the interval the higher the

confidence that the true value will lie within it.
Stating the result

To fully define the result of a measurement you
must state:
THE MEASURED VALUE
THE UNCERTAINTY
THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL
So the result of a flow measurement may be stated

as
3.5 0.2 l/s (95% confidence)
Stating the result
95%
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
Error vs uncertainty
The error is the DIFFERENCE between the true value
and measured result. It will of course be unknown
Uncertainty
Error
Standard/Expanded uncertainty
Standard Uncertainty is the basic measure of uncertainty.
Likelihood of finding the true value in this interval is fairly
low
Need to define a larger interval to give a higher
confidence of containing the true value Known as
Expanded Uncertainty
95%
68%
Coverage factor
For a normal distribution
68%
u
95%
Coverage factor k
U k u
To get a confidence of
95% use k = 1.96
Accuracy
Closeness of agreement between

the result and the true value.
You can have an accurate
measurement with a large
uncertainty
You cannot attach a value to accuracy
It is a qualitative term
Repeatability
Closeness of agreement between
successive measurements under
the same conditions (at the same
time)
There are several different measures of
repeatability
Key definitions
Good Accuracy Means Good

Repeatability
Poor Repeatability Means Poor
Accuracy
Good Repeatability Does Not

Necessarily
Mean Good Accuracy
Some facts
88 Million barrels of Oil per day
The total cost was approximately
$9.9 Billion
Uncertainty was
Financial exposure
$25 Million per day
0.25%
2011
The cost of uncertainty
Uncertainty of 2% at 95%
confidence on the gasoline
flow meter.
Capacity of fuel tank: 70 litres
Uncertainty in half-filling the

tank?
35 0.7 litres (95%)
1.50 litre
The cost of uncertainty

Cost of filling
52.50 1.05 (95%)
Annually (assuming 2 fills per
week)
2013
Exposure of 109.20 per year
Categories of uncertainty analysis
Uncertainty
Analysis
Type A
Numerical
Methods
Type B
NonNumerical
Type A uncertainty statistics
Arithmetic Mean
Standard Deviation
Normal distribution
Data tends to cluster in distinct patterns
probability
68%
95%
Rectangular distribution
Within the uncertainty interval the probability of
finding the true value at a given point is
determined by the type of distribution
Rectangular
a
3
Resolution uncertainty
3 5
Flow
34.0
34.5
35.0
35.5
36.0
Resolution uncertainty
3 5
Flow
34.0
34.5
35.0
35.5
36.0
Bias
Bias (systematic)
Uncertainty
(Random)
Measured
Value
True
Value
Example of bias
Bias causes every measurement to be affected in
the same way.
E.g. Incorrect zeroing of an instrument.
In this way a clock may be running fast or slow
Skewed distribution
Sometimes a measurement might stray more to one

side than the other
Positively Skewed
e.g. Salaries in a
company
Uncertainty calculation stages
STAGE 1
Identify
uncertainty
sources
STAGE 2
Estimate
the
magnitude
STAGE 3
Convert to
standard
values
STAGE 4
STAGE 5
Calculate
Sensitivities
Convert to
output
values
STAGE 6
Estimate
degree of
correlation
STAGE 7
STAGE 8
Combine
using best
method
Express at
correct
confidence
level
COMPLETE
Examples: orifice plate
Beta ()
Ratio of the orifice diameter d2 to the
pipe diameter d1
Flow
d1
d2
d2 d1
Discharge Coefficient (C)
Ratio of actual mass flow rate to ideal
value through orifice. Accounts for
frictional effects
C
2
Q
d2 2p1
4
4
1

1
Flow
Pressure Difference
p
Quantity
Value
Discharge Coefficient C
0.6
Expansibility Factor
0.997
Pipe Diameter d1
0.5 m
Orifice Diameter d2
0.3 m
Pressure Drop p
50,000 Pa
Density
48.7 kg/m3
Calculated Flow Q
100.0 kg/s

1
Quantity
Units
Value
U*(%)
(-)
0.6
0.003
0.5
(-)
0.997
0.00027
0.027
Pipe Diameter d1
0.5
0.0001
0.02
Orifice Diameter d2
0.3
0.00001
0.0003
Pressure Drop p
Pa
50,000
100
0.2
Density
kgm-3
48.7
0.146
0.3
Calculated Flow Q
kgs-1
100.0

1
Quantity
Value
0.6
0.003
0.997 0.00027
u.c
(u.C)2
0.25
0.0625
2 0.00150 100
2 0.00013 167 0.0135 0.0002
Pipe Diameter d1
0.5
0.0001 1.73 0.00006 -60 -0.0034 0.00001
Orifice Diameter d2
0.3
0.00001 1.73 0.00001 766 0.0044 0.00002
Pressure Drop p
50,000
100
Density
48.7
0.146
2 0.07305 1.03
0.075 0.0056
Calculated Flow Q
100.0
0.532
0.266 0.0708
50
0.266
0.001
0.05
0.0025
Examples: tank volume
Volume of a cylindrical storage tank
d h
V
4
2
Governing
Equation
Vmeas
V15
Vmeas
V15
1 Tmeas 15

Source
Calibration (Diameter)
0.048
2.00
Determination(Diameter)
u.c
(u.c)2
0.024 39.96
0.955
0.920
0.021 39.96
0.839
0.704
Time drift (Diameter)
0.005
1.73
0.003 39.96
0.115
0.013
Calibration (Height)
0.100
2.00
0.050 18.10
0.905
0.819
Resolution (Height)
0.026
1.73
0.015 18.10
0.272
0.074
Time drift (Height)
0.010
1.73
0.006 18.10
0.104
0.011
Temperature
0.550
2.00
0.250 -0.004 -0.001 0.000
2.25 10-6
1.73
0.000 -1437 -0.002 0.000
3.188
2.00
1.594
Cubical Expansion
Volume
1.594
2.541

Source
0.048
2.00
u.c
(u.c)2
0.024 39.96
0.955
0.920
0.021 39.96
0.839
0.704
0.005
1.73
0.003 39.96
0.115
0.013
0.100
2.00
0.050 18.10
0.905
0.819
Resolution (Height)
0.026
1.73
0.015 18.10
0.272
0.074
Time drift (Height)
0.010
1.73
0.006 18.10
0.104
0.011
Temperature
0.550
2.00
0.250 -0.004 -0.001 0.000
2.25 10-6
1.73
0.000 -1437 -0.002 0.000
3.188
2.00
1.594
Cubical Expansion
Volume
1.594
2.541

Source
0.024
2.00
u.c
(u.c)2
0.012 39.96
0.480
0.230
0.021 39.96
0.839
0.704
0.005
1.73
0.003 39.96
0.115
0.013
0.100
2.00
0.050 18.10
0.905
0.819
Resolution (Height)
0.026
1.73
0.015 18.10
0.272
0.074
Time drift (Height)
0.010
1.73
0.006 18.10
0.104
0.011
Temperature
0.550
2.00
0.250 -0.004 -0.001 0.000
2.25 10-6
1.73
0.000 -1437 -0.002 0.000
2.720
2.00
1.360
Cubical Expansion
Volume
Was 3.188
1.360
1.851

Source
0.024
2.00
u.c
(u.c)2
0.012 39.96
0.480
0.230
0.021 39.96
0.839
0.704
0.005
1.73
0.003 39.96
0.115
0.013
0.050
2.00
0.025 18.10
0.452
0.205
Resolution (Height)
0.026
1.73
0.015 18.10
0.272
0.074
Time drift (Height)
0.010
1.73
0.006 18.10
0.104
0.011
Temperature
0.550
2.00
0.250 -0.004 -0.001 0.000
2.25 10-6
1.73
0.000 -1437 -0.002 0.000
2.224
2.00
1.112
Cubical Expansion
Volume
Was 2.720
1.112
1.237

Source
0.024
2.00
u.c
(u.c)2
0.012 39.96
0.480
0.230
0.010 39.96
0.400
0.160
0.005
1.73
0.003 39.96
0.115
0.013
0.050
2.00
0.025 18.10
0.452
0.205
Resolution (Height)
0.026
1.73
0.015 18.10
0.272
0.074
Time drift (Height)
0.010
1.73
0.006 18.10
0.104
0.011
Temperature
0.550
2.00
0.250 -0.004 -0.001 0.000
2.25 10-6
1.73
0.000 -1437 -0.002 0.000
1.664
2.00
0.832
Cubical Expansion
Volume
Was 2.224
0.832
0.692
The effect of correlation

Un-correlated measurements
Measurements are independent
May be at different parts of uncertainty range
True value
U1
Uncertainty of combined flow
U2
UQ1Q2 U12 U22
The effect of correlation

Correlated measurements
Measurements made by SAME meter
If meter under-reads for one reading then it will under-read
for all
True value
U1
Uncertainty of combined flow
U2
UQ1Q2 U1 U2
Handling calculations
Always convert to standard uncertainty before
performing calculations
Ensure that all units are identical
Use at most two significant figures

Always round UP
Keep asking: does this feel right?
Further reading
The GUM
Guide to the Expression of
Uncertainty in Measurement
Prepared and published by
consortium of International
Standards bodies (BIPM, IEC,
ISO, OIML, IFCC, IUPAC, IUPAP,
ILAC)
Recognised as providing
standard methods
Summary
Measurement is meaningless without

statement of uncertainty
Assessment of uncertainty can be time
consuming and requires careful thought
An uncertainty analysis correctly done will save
time and money in the long term
Thank you for listening
Any questions?
The National Measurement System is the UKs national infrastructure of measurement

laboratories, which deliver world-class measurement science and technology through four
National Measurement Institutes (NMIs): LGC, NPL, the National Physical laboratory, NEL the
former National Engineering Laboratory, and the National Measurement Office (NMO).

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The Impact of Uncertainty on

Industrial Flow Measurement

Basic uncertainty theory

Why is measurement important?

The NMS is responsible for

Flow measurement consultancy

In uncertainty lies the drama of life

The true value is UNKNOWN

The larger the interval the higher the

Stating the result

THE MEASURED VALUE

THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL

So the result of a flow measurement may be stated

Stating the result

Closeness of agreement between

Good Accuracy Means Good

Good Repeatability Does Not

$25 Million per day

The cost of uncertainty

Capacity of fuel tank: 70 litres

Uncertainty in half-filling the

35 0.7 litres (95%)

The cost of uncertainty

Categories of uncertainty analysis

Type A uncertainty statistics

Sometimes a measurement might stray more to one

Uncertainty calculation stages

Uncertainty calculation stages

Uncertainty calculation stages

Examples: orifice plate

Examples: orifice plate

Examples: orifice plate

Examples: orifice plate

2 0.00013 167 0.0135 0.0002

0.0001 1.73 0.00006 -60 -0.0034 0.00001

0.00001 1.73 0.00001 766 0.0044 0.00002

Examples: tank volume

Volume of a cylindrical storage tank

Examples: tank volume

Examples: tank volume

Time drift (Diameter)

Time drift (Height)

0.250 -0.004 -0.001 0.000

0.000 -1437 -0.002 0.000

Examples: tank volume

Time drift (Diameter)

Time drift (Height)

0.250 -0.004 -0.001 0.000

0.000 -1437 -0.002 0.000

Examples: tank volume

Time drift (Diameter)

Time drift (Height)

0.250 -0.004 -0.001 0.000

0.000 -1437 -0.002 0.000

Examples: tank volume

Time drift (Diameter)

Time drift (Height)

0.250 -0.004 -0.001 0.000

0.000 -1437 -0.002 0.000

Examples: tank volume

Time drift (Diameter)

Time drift (Height)

0.250 -0.004 -0.001 0.000