Pakistan Journal of Meteorology

Vol. 9, Issue 18: Jan 2013

Third Successive Active Monsoon over Pakistan - An Analysis

and Diagnostic Study of Monsoon 2012
Faisal, N.1,2, A. Jameel2, S. B. Cheema3, A. Ghuffar2, A. Mahmood3, G. Rasul3
Abstract
In this research report an effort has been made to analyze and study main features of monsoon
2012 rainfall over Pakistan and its associated synoptic features. Monsoon 2012 was special due to
the fact that it was the third consecutive monsoon, which recorded above normal rainfall. The
seasonal monsoon 2012 rainfall of the country as a whole was 31 percent above long term normal
(1961-2010) and is ranked 12th heaviest monsoon rainfall since 1961. The intensity of monsoon
rainfall during the past two years (2010 & 2011) was 73% and 63% above than normal (19712000) respectively. The excessive monsoon 2012 rainfall, like monsoons of 2010 & 2011, again
caused severe flash flooding in the country. The rainfall for month of September2012 was ranked
highest ever recorded rainfall during the period 1961-2012. It was also recoded highest ever
rainfall over Balochistan, second highest at Kyhber-Pakthunkhwa, third highest over Sindh and
fifth highest over Azad Kashmir during past 52 years. It is investigated that the persistence of sea
level monsoon trough over Central India that remained parallel to the latitudes, during second
week of September 2012, caused weather systems which formed over North of Bay of Bengal/
northeastern parts of India to move westwards , resulting heavy down pour in the Southeastern
parts of the country.

Key words: monsoon 2012, synoptic feature, sea level monsoon trough, heavy down pour

Introduction
The Asian monsoon is the most significant component of the global climate system. During recent two
decades, concerned efforts have been made to investigate the Asian monsoon (Rasul and Chaudhry
2010).The Asian monsoon is characterized with a distinct seasonal reversal of wind and clear partition
between dry and wet season in the annual cycle, which is related with the seasonal reversal of the largescale atmospheric heating and steady circulation features (Webster et al. 1998; Ding and Chan 2005;
Trenberth et al. 2006).
The monsoon precipitation plays a very important role in the social and economic development of
Pakistan. Nearly 60 % of annual rainfall over most parts of Pakistan is received during summer (M.
Muslehuddin and N. Faisal 2006). Rainfall occurs primarily due to differential heating of the area.
Differential heating of the land and ocean creates pressure gradient that drives the winds from high
pressure to low pressure. Air circulation will start if one region is heated or cooled more than some other
region. Joshi et al (1988) noted the differential heating of the continents and the adjoining ocean to be the
primary cause of the summer monsoon circulation over South Asia.
Over Pakistan, monsoon (July-September), normally reaches the eastern border of the country around first
of July and persists up to the end of September (A. Mahmood et al., 2010). Analysis of 5-day rainfall of
selected stations of eastern boundaries of country has also revealed that the dates of onset determined by
pentad method were within 2 days of those declared by Pakistan Meteorological Department (N. Faisal &
N. Sadiq, 2010). The onset of monsoon 2012 over Pakistan was delayed by 3 days. Monsoon rains
started in northeastern parts of Punjab and adjoining areas from 4th July. The monsoon then slowly
advanced to the rest of the country and started to withdraw from the region by18th September. On 20th
September monsoon completely withdrew from whole of the country. The onset dates of previous two
monsoons (2010 & 2011) were July 5 and 1, respectively.

nadeemfaisal@hotmail.com
Pakistan Meteorological Department, University Road, Karachi.
3
Pakistan Meteorological Department, Pitras Bukhari Road, Sector H-8/2, Islamabad.
2

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Third Successive Active Monsoon over Pakistan-An Analysis

Vol. 9

After the end of the La Nia in April 2012, the global land and ocean temperatures rose increasingly
above the long-term average with each consecutive month. The six-month average of MayOctober 2012
was among the four warmest such periods on record (WMO 2012). Naturally occurring climate
variability due to phenomena such as El Nio and La Nia impact on temperatures and precipitation on a
seasonal to annual scale. said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud.
As a whole country the monsoon period for 1961-2012exhibit significant increasing trend (Figure-1).
Interestingly, while analyzing the seasonal rainfall on provincial basis, significant increasing trends were
observed over all provinces except Azad Kashmir. However the increase in precipitation over two
provinces (Balochistan and Sindh) was not significant.

Seasonal Rainfall
Monsoon 2012 was special due to the fact that it was the third consecutive monsoon, which recorded
above normal rainfall. The seasonal monsoon 2012 rainfall of the country as a whole was 31 percent
above long term normal (1961-2010) and is ranked 12th heaviest monsoon rainfall since 1961.The
intensity of monsoon rainfall during the past two years (2010 & 2011) were73 % & 63% above than
normal (1971-2000) respectively (Table-1). The excessive monsoon 2012 rainfall, like monsoons of 2010
& 2011, again caused severe flash flooding in the country.
During the monsoon season of 2012, Azad Kashmir & Khyber-PK received slightly above than normal
rainfall. Gligit-Baltistan, Punjab & Sindh received moderately above than normal and Balochistan
received largely above than normal rainfall. Table-2 depicts the distribution of seasonal rainfall over the
country and provinces.Figure-2 shows the spatial pattern of seasonal (July-September) rainfall departure,
calculated by using stations rainfall data. Seasonal rainfall was above normal over major parts of Punjab,
upper Sindh and eastern parts of Balochistan. The western, southern and northern part of the country
exhibited the magnitudes of negative rainfall.
Another factor which makes the monsoon rainfall 2012 more special was the September rainfall over the
country as a whole, which ranked the highest ever recorded monthly rainfall during the period 1961-2012.
Similar position had been observed over the provinces during this month, when it recoded highest ever
rainfall over Balochitistan, second highest at Kyhber-Pakthunkhwa, third highest over Sindh and fifth
highest over Azad Kashmir, during past 52 years. During monsoon 2012 season, very heavy rainfall
events were reported by many stations. Extreme rainfall in 24 hours and monthly heaviest rainfall were
also reported at a number of stations. Table-3 illustrates the month, season and station wise distribution of
extremely heavy rainfall events during the season.
Heavy monsoon rains over Jacobabad, Khanpur, Sukkur, Larkana and the adjoining areas claimed 571
lives, in addition to injury to 3,000 people. Most of the casualties were mainly due to drowning in
swelling rivers and flash floods. Severe floods caused by these heavy downpours affected five million
people in the area. These floods also damaged 11 million acres land of standing crops besides large-scale
damages to property and cattle forms (NDMA 2012). Individual stations month and season wise actual,
normal and percentage departure rainfall is depicted in Table-4.

Monthly Rainfall
July 2012
In Pakistan, July is considered to be the rainiest month of the year and it has significant contribution
to annual and seasonal rainfall. On the national scale, the distribution of July the rainfall (Figure-2)
over the country was deficient and was moderately below normal (-42 %). During the month, rainfall
distribution, over six divisions of the country, was moderately to largely below normal.Table-2 shows
the actual, normal and deviation from normal rainfall in the month on national and provincial basis.
Major amount of rainfall, ranging between 200 to 260 mm, recipient stations during July 2012 were
Kotli, Silakot, Jhelum, Muzffarabad & Sialkot.
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FaisaL, N., A. Jamil, S. B. Cheema, A. Ghuffar, A. Mahmood, G. Rasul

July 2012 Synoptic Features

Five westerly low pressure waves passed across northern parts of the country from 5 th to 10th, 11th to
17th, 19th to 21st, 25th to 27th and 30th to 31st. Monsoon trough at sea level remained close to the foot
hills of Himalayas during first week of July. The persistence of low pressure areas, over central parts
of India and southern parts of Rajasthan which were extended up to mid-tropospheric level during
second week of July, caused deflected monsoon currents which penetrated over eastern parts of the
country during the above period. Monsoon trough then again shifted close to the foot hills of
Himalayas and the deflected monsoon currents affected mostly the northeastern parts of Punjab and
adjoining areas during rest of the month. Some stations of northern areas received heavy to very
heavy rainfall which was the combined effect of westerly waves and deflected monsoon currents
during the month of July.
August2012
The month of August is also one of the wettest month of Pakistan, like July. The month of August
exhibited spatially variable rainfall distribution over the country. The southeastern region and some
packets of central and northwestern parts of the country received deficient amount of rainfall, while
elsewhere the regions received normal or above than normal rainfall (Figure-2).
August 2012 Synoptic Features
Five westerly low pressure waves passed across northern and central parts of the country from 2nd to
6th, 9th to 13th, 14th to 17th, 20th to 23rd & 24th to 31st. Monsoon trough, at sea level, remained close to
the foot hills of Himalayas during first week of August; however, the incursion of westerly wave with
the deflected monsoon currents gave heavy to very heavy rainfall over northern parts of the country
on 4th & 5th August. Three monsoon lows moved from Head Bay of Bengal/northeastern parts of
India and persisted over central parts of India during 9th to 17th. Monsoon currents penetrated into
northeastern parts of the country and simultaneously a westerly wave moved across northern parts of
the country. Due to the interaction of these systems, moderate to heavy rain occurred at a number of
places to almost at all the places in northern and central parts of the country during that period.
Monsoon trough then moved northwards and lay close to the foot hills of Himalayas up to 28 th
August; even then the combined effect of westerly wave and deflected monsoon currents, over
extreme northeastern parts of the country, gave heavy to very heavy rains in northern and central parts
of the country from 20th to 28th August. During last three days of the month, a low pressure area,
extended up to mid tropospheric level, was formed over Indian Gujrat and adjoining Sindh causing
some rainfall in Sindh
September 2012
Generally, the month of September is not like the remaining two wettest months of the season and
hence normally its monthly rainfall contribution to the season is less (A. Mahmood et al., 2010).
Rainfall activity over the country for this month, however, as a whole, was exceptionally very high.
During September, rainfall activity over the central, eastern and southeastern parts of the country was
very intense (Figure-2). For September 2012, rainfall for the country as a whole was 337 % of its long
period of normal value (Table-2). The September rainfall was ranked highest ever recorded rainfall
during the period 1961-2012. Similar position had been observed for the provincial rainfall, when it
recoded highest ever rainfall over Balochistan, second highest at Kyhber-Pakhtunkhwa, third highest
over Sindh and fifth highest over Azad Kashmir during past 52 years. Heavy rains during the month
over Jacobabad, Sukkur, Khanpur and adjoining areas, caused flash floods and inundated large area
resulting in loss of lives besides damages to property and land. Monthly rainfall totals for this month
generally ranged between 0-25 mm in these areas, with some occasional little higher amount.
Accumulated monthly rainfall records for September were broken at several locations of Jacoabad,
Larkana, Rohri, Sukkur, Nawabshah, Chhor and Mithi, when it received monthly total rainfall
ranging 150-450 mm.

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Third Successive Active Monsoon over Pakistan-An Analysis

Vol. 9

September 2012 Synoptic Features

For September 2011, rainfall over the country as a whole was near to normal value. All provinces
received normal or excessive rainfall except the province of Sindh, where it was largely deficit
(Table-2). Muzaffarabad, Murree, Islamabad & Mandibahuddin received total monthly amount of
rainfall between 400-500 mm, while Balakot, Kotli, Mangla & Kakul recorded the rainfall ranging
300-400 mm. Three westerly low pressure waves passed across northern parts of the country from 1 st
to 11th, 13th to 19th and 25th to 27th. The monsoon low, which was formed over Sindh during last three
days of August, remained over there and gave some rainfall in southeast Sindh on 1 st. Two monsoon
lows moved westwards from India and simultaneously a low pressure area extending up to mid
tropospheric level, was formed over Saurashtra-Kutch and adjoining southeast Sindh caused moderate
to very heavy rains in the country during first two weeks of September. The monsoon tilts towards the
Sindh as a result convergence zone exist over the South eastern part of the country , the same feature
also represented in High resolution model (HRM) and satellite images as shown in Figure5. These
low pressure systems are visible up to 500hPa.The 200 hPa charts shows that Tibetan high has been
tilted south west from normal position as shown in Figure 5, dotted lines represent actual position of
Tibetan High (TH) in the month of September where as solid line represent Tibetan High position
during 2012 Monsoon. This high pressure blocked the monsoon currents to reach up to the Northern
parts of Country. Deflected monsoon currents, along with the movement of a westerly wave over
Northern parts of the country, caused heavy to very heavy rains at a number of places to almost at all
the places in northern and central parts of the country during middle of the month. Monsoon
withdrew from the country from 20th September. Weather remained mostly dry during last ten days
except some rainfall activity, was seen over northern parts of the country, which was the outcome of a
shallow westerly wave.

Seasons Significant Features

No significant monsoon activity was seen in July 2012. One of the reasons may be that only two
monsoon lows formed over northeastern parts of India, moved westwards and reached up to the
central parts of India. Ultimately less amount of deflected monsoon currents were produced, resulting
in less monsoon rains in Pakistan.

No monsoon depression was formed over India during the whole southwest monsoon season of 2012,
whereas normally 4 to 6 monsoon depressions are formed during the monsoon season. Moreover, not
a single low pressure area was formed in June 2012 over India. These two reasons may also be the
cause of less monsoon rains over Pakistan in July.

The monsoon trough remained close to the foot hills of Himalayas on most of the days during July
which confined the deflected monsoon currents only up to the sub-mountain Punjab and adjoining
areas.

During August, the orientation of sea level monsoon trough was in such a position i.e. southeast to
northwestwards, that the deflected monsoon currents together with the westerly waves affected
northern and central parts of the country on most of the days during August; that is why rainfall
remained normal in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab during this month.

Series of the upper air charts (Figure-3(a) & (b)) for the active period of monsoon indicates the
presence of a well marked low pressure area over Saurashtra Kutch and adjoining southeastern parts
of Pakistan and was extended up to mid-tropospheric level. Tremendous amount of moisture mainly
from North Arabian Sea inducted to the system cause heavy to very high rains in South Punjab and
Sindh mostly during second week of September.

The orientation of the sub tropical high at 200 hPa level remained northeast to southwest during the
first fortnight of September and the monsoon trough at sea level remained east-west in lower latitudes

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FaisaL, N., A. Jamil, S. B. Cheema, A. Ghuffar, A. Mahmood, G. Rasul

over India. As such, the lows formed over Head Bay of Bengal/eastern parts of India moved
westwards instead of their normal northwest movement and when these lows reached over Indian
Gujrat and adjoining Sindh, they received lot of moisture from Arabian Sea and intensified into well
marked lows and ultimately produced heavy to very heavy rains in Sindh and southern parts of
Punjab. The incursion of westerly waves, along with the deflected monsoon currents, played a vital
role in producing heavy rains in northern parts of the country during first 18 days of September 2012.

Daily Rainfall
Comparison of daily area weighted rainfall of the monsoon season (1st July to 30th September) along with
its normal values, calculated over the period of 50 years (1961-2010) for the country as a whole and for
its six provinces is depicted in Figure-4. Over all the rainfall in the season was below normal, most of the
time, in the first two months and exceptionally on very higher side in the two patches of September.
Significant variability was observed in the daily rainfall on the first two months of the season over Azad
Kashmir, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, whereas below normal rainfall was observed over
Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and Sindh in the same two months. Exceptionally very higher rainfall was
observed over all provinces in some days of September. One day heaviest rainfall records were broken
during the month of September in many places. Some are: Jacobabad 305 mm, Khanpur 173 mm, Sukkur
164 mm, Rohri 152 mm & Rahim Yar Khan102 mm.

Acknowledgment
We are thankful to Zia Uddin Khan for his valuable assistance, which helped in improving the quality of
the research report.

References
Mahmood., A, N. Faisal & A. Jameel, 2010: Special Report on Pakistans Monsoon 2011 Rainfall.
PMD Technical Report # 05/2012, January 2012
Ding, Y. H and C. L. Chan, 2005: The East Asian Summer monsoon: an overview. Meteor. Atoms
Phys.,89, 117-142.
Rasul. G., Chaudhry Q. Z., 2010: Review of Advance in Research on Asian Summer Monsoon;
Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, Vol.6; Issue 12
Joshi, P.C., Simons, B & Desai, P.S., 1988: Atmospheric thermal changes over the Indian region prior to
the monsoon onset as observed by satellite sounding data, India & Climate vol.10 49-56 (1990)
Muhammad Muslehuddin and Nadeem Faisal, 2006: Long Range Forecast of Sindh Monsoon.
Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, Vol.3; Issue 5
N. Faisal & N. Sadiq, 2010: Monsoon Onset over selected eastern boundary cities of Pakistan. The
Nucleus 49, No. 3 (2012) 239-245
National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), 2012: Flood 2012.Ministry of Climate Change,
Government of Pakistan. http://www.ndma.gov.pk/Documents/monsoon/2012/damages/december/
damages_details_10_12_2012.pdf
Trenberth, K.E., J.W. Hurrell, and D.P. Stepaniak, 2006: The Asian Monsoon: Global perspectives.
In:The Asian monsoon: Ed. by binWang, Praxis Publishing Ltd., Chichester, UK, 781pp.
Webster, P.J., V.O. Magana, T.N. Palmer, et al., 1998: Monsoon: Process , predictablility, and
theprospects for forecast. J.Geophy. Res., 103, 14454-14510.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 2012: Geneva. Press Release 966.http://www.wmo.int/
pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_966_en.html

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Third Successive Active Monsoon over Pakistan-An Analysis

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Table 1: Historical driest & wettest monsoon (1961-2012)

Driest

Wettest

Year

Dep (%)

Year

Dep (%)

1963
1987
2002
1965
1972
1968
1966
1974
2004
1991
1969
1971

-52
-51
-45
-43
-42
-40
-39
-36
-35
-33
-30
-30

1994
2010
1976
2011
1992
1978
1973
1983
2003
1961
1975
2012

80
73
64
63
57
55
39
36
36
33
32
31

Table 2: Country & provincial seasonal and monthly 2012 actual & normal rainfall (mm)
Region

Season

July

August

September

rainfall (mm) %

rainfall (mm) %

rainfall (mm) %

rainfall (mm) %

nor

act

dep

nor

act

dep

nor

act

dep

nor

act

dep

Pakistan

141

185

31

63

37

-42

56

55

-3

21

93

337

Azad Kashmir
Balochistan
Gilgit-Baltistan
Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
Punjab
Sindh

294
59
42
289
231
134

324
88
61
329
318
172

10
50
46
14
38
28

130
30
14
121
104
60

84
21
2
70
74
8

-36
-29
-84
-42
-29
-86

114
22
17
117
93
54

146
26
17
139
92
16

28
17
-3
19
-1
-70

50
6
11
51
35
20

94
40
42
119
152
147

88
545
299
133
339
640

Table 3: Stations received extreme seasonal rainfall

S.N.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Stations
Muzaffarabad
Murree
Islamabad
Balakot
Islamabad AP
Kotli
Mandi-Bahu-Din
Kakul
Mangla
Jhelum
Rawalakot
Gujranwala
Sialkot AP
Sialkot Cantt
Jacobabad
Sahiwal
Malam Jabba
Lahore PBO
Parachinar
Lahore AP

Jul
act
200
129
162
118
145
263
111
146
121
216
166
158
159
255
0
99
104
38
120
53

nor
359
364
354
378
309
286
--264
--263
------304
43
----212
99
218

Aug
dep
-159
-235
-192
-259
-164
-22
---117
---48
-------50
-43
-----174
21
-165

act
482
469
283
332
410
319
404
300
307
266
133
239
261
191
0
134
165
197
221
176

nor
227
336
335
277
342
298
--267
--252
------321
35
----195
97
198

78

Sep
dep
255
133
-52
55
68
21
--33
--14
-------129
-35
----3
124
-22

act
214
281
356
319
182
128
173
173
118
59
218
115
87
51
479
226
185
199
69
178

nor
108
143
123
115
112
92
--104
--75
------91
11
----64
55
75

Monsoon
dep
106
138
233
204
70
36
--69
---15
-------40
468
----136
14
103

act
896
879
801
769
737
710
688
619
546
541
516
513
507
496
479
459
453
434
410
407

nor
695
843
812
769
762
676
--634
--589
------716
89
----470
252
491

dep
201
36
-11
0
-25
35
---15
---49
-------219
390
-----36
158
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Issue 18

FaisaL, N., A. Jamil, S. B. Cheema, A. Ghuffar, A. Mahmood, G. Rasul

Table 4: Monthly and seasonal rainfall (actual, normal & % departure)

actual

normal

departure

actual

normal

departure

27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39

departure

23
24
25
26

MONSOON 2012

normal

8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22

AZAD KASHMIR
Astore
10.2 25.7
Bunji
4.8
18.9
Garhi Dopatta 57.0 265.6
Kotli
263.4 285.8
Muzaffarabad
200.4 359.4
Rawalakot
165.5 --Skardu
1.4
11.3
BALOCHISTAN
Barkhan
138.1 109.3
Dalbandin
0.0
2.6
Gawadar
0.0
--Jiwani
0.0
8.6
Kalat
0.0
20.2
Khuzdar
5.2
58.5
Lasbela
4.0
32.9
Nokkundi
0.0
2.0
Panjgur
5.0
21.2
Pasni
0.0
5.0
Quetta
0.0
16.3
Sibbi
42.6 37.4
Turbat
0.0
--Ormara
0.0
10.7
Zhob
42.1 61.3
GILGIT- BALTISTAN
Chilas
0.6
14.1
Gilgit
1.1
16.2
Gupis
5.0
14.0
Hunza
2.7
--KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA
Balakot
118.4 377.8
Bannu
30.4 --Cherat
4.0
93.4
Chitral
0.0
5.5
D.I.Khan
100.5 60.3
Dir
27.9 154.1
Lower Dir
75.0 --Drosh
28.1 22.1
Kakul
146.4 263.6
Kalam
6.7
--Kohat
38.0 75.3
Malam Jabba
103.5 --Mirkhani
4.1
---

September 2012

actual

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

August 2012

departure

July 2012

normal

Stations

actual

S.N.

-15.5
-14.1
-22.4
208.6
--159.0
-9.9

18.2
9.7
138.0
319.0
481.9
133.0
10.1

28.6
21.5
235.8
297.6
227.4
--14.7

-10.4
-11.8
-97.8
21.4
254.5
---4.6

78.2
75.8
184.0
128.0
213.6
217.5
30.8

21.6
10.7
104.3
92.1
108.1
--8.7

56.6
65.1
79.7
35.9
105.5
--22.1

106.6
90.3
379.0
710.4
895.9
516.0
42.3

75.9
51.1
605.7
675.5
694.9
--34.7

30.7
39.2
-226.7
34.9
201.0
--7.6

28.8
-2.6
---8.6
-20.2
-53.3
-28.9
-2.0
-16.2
-5.0
-16.3
5.2
---10.7
-19.2

30.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
51.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
106.0
0.0
0.0
57.0

87.7
1.0
--2.1
9.1
58.2
31.5
0.4
7.4
11.5
13.2
37.2
--4.5
49.7

-57.5
-1.0
---2.1
-9.1
-7.2
-31.5
-0.4
-7.4
-11.5
-13.2
68.8
---4.5
7.3

46.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
7.0
54.2
21.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
112.0
0.0
0.0
28.0

44.5
0.2
--0.3
2.1
7.9
30.8
0.0
2.5
1.3
2.5
9.0
--0.0
11.5

1.5
-0.2
---0.3
4.9
46.3
-9.6
0.0
-2.5
-1.3
1.5
103.0
--0.0
16.5

52.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
16.0
54.2
21.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.0
112.0
0.0
0.0
28.0

241.5
3.8
--11.0
31.4
124.6
95.2
2.4
31.1
17.8
32.0
83.6
--15.2
122.5

-27.2
-3.8
---11.0
-24.4
-14.2
-70.0
-2.4
-26.1
-17.8
-28.0
177.0
---15.2
4.6

-13.5
-15.1
-9.0
---

16.6
11.3
43.0
20.8

16.9
17.0
23.8
---

-0.3
-5.7
19.2
---

33.9
49.0
27.0
40.1

7.8
8.5
11.8
---

26.1
40.5
15.2
---

51.1
61.4
75.0
63.6

38.8
41.7
49.6
---

12.3
19.7
25.4
---

--259.4
-89.4
-5.5
40.2
--126.2
6.0
--117.2
-37.3
-----

331.8
99.0
105.0
0.0
75.0
64.9
150.0
20.0
299.8
42.5
83.0
164.5
3.0

276.7
--96.4
6.6
60.7
156.9
--20.1
266.5
--115.6
-----

55.1
--8.6
-6.6
14.3
-92.0
---0.1
33.3
---32.6
-----

319.0
44.8
135.0
44.6
95.0
152.6
107.0
23.7
173.0
98.7
74.0
184.5
10.0

114.8
--34.5
13.4
24.4
90.6
--21.8
104.3
--42.2
-----

204.2
--100.5
31.2
70.6
62.0
--1.9
68.7
--31.8
-----

769.2
174.2
244.0
44.6
270.5
245.4
332.0
71.8
619.2
147.9
195.0
452.5
17.1

769.3
--224.3
25.5
145.4
401.6
--64.0
634.4
--233.1
-----

-0.1
--19.7
19.1
125.1
-156.2
--7.8
-15.2
---38.1
-----

79

Third Successive Active Monsoon over Pakistan-An Analysis

Figure 1: Pakistan and provinces Rainfall (percentage departure) time series (1961-2012) and trends.

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Issue 18

FaisaL, N., A. Jamil, S. B. Cheema, A. Ghuffar, A. Mahmood, G. Rasul

Figure 2: Spatial pattern of seasonal season and monthly rainfall actual & departure (mm)

81

Third Successive Active Monsoon over Pakistan-An Analysis

(a)

(b)

Figure 3: (a) Isobaric pattern of 500, 700 & 850 hPa levels charts of intense monsoon period (6-8 September).
[Source NCEP, NOAA, USA] (b): Isobaric pattern of 500, 700 & 850 hPa levels charts
of intense monsoon period (9-11September)). [Source NCEP, NOAA, USA]

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Vol. 9

Issue 18

FaisaL, N., A. Jamil, S. B. Cheema, A. Ghuffar, A. Mahmood, G. Rasul

Figure 4: Comparisons of daily (area weighted) rainfall of actual & normal values

83

Third Successive Active Monsoon over Pakistan-An Analysis

700hPa

850hPa

200hPa
200
hPa

Figure 5: Average Streamlines pattern from 01-11 September 2012 at 850 hPa, 700 hPa, 200 hPa
(dotted line is the actual position of Tibetan High & solid line is the position of TH in 2012)
and images of High Resolution Model (HRM) along with satellite images respectively.

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