The Development of Romania

The Development of Romania: A Cohort Study
Author(s): Tord Hivik

Source: Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 11, No. 4 (1974), pp. 281-296
Published by: Sage Publications, Ltd.
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TORD H0IVIK
International Peace Research Institute, Oslo
Sc Department of Sociology, University of
Oslo
Introduction
This article has one general and one specific
purpose. It is based on a common-sense view
of development: that the quality of life of
ordinary people should be the ultimate goal
and yardstick of development policies; and
it tries to make this goal substantial by a
cohort approach. In that sense, it is a methodological study. But it is also motivated by
a real wish to know what did happen in
Romania's recent past, and what may come
to happen in its near future. The country
is not a randomly selected case, but a place
that I have become linked to, through
friendship and admiration as well as through
certain questions and doubts.
We shall survey Romania's development
in the 20th century through the eyes of the
cohorts born in 1900, in 1930, and in 1960
respectively. This means that we take all
children born in these years and follow their
history in childhood, school, adult life and
old age as far as official statistics and other
sources can take us. We have chosen the
cohort and not the nation as unit of study
because only the cohort's experiences parallel the life cycles of individuals, at the collective level. Social conditions and historical
events have unequal impacts on 5-year-old
children, 35-year-old parents, and 65-yearold retired people. Only by keeping a specific age group in mind do we come close to
experienced social reality.
In a static society, stratification by age
and study over time are unnecessary, since
all age groups sooner or later pass under
identical influences. In a changing society,
each generation has its particular history,
even when they coexist in time. When
change is deep and rapid, as it has been in

Romania since World War II, the particularities of age become acute.
Besides age, the most important stratification variables are sex and social class. Sexual
inequality is especially pronounced in education and working life, and will be noted
wherever possible. Systematic differences in
mortality rates are also present, but their effects are relatively small, so we do not consider the sexes separately in this respect.
As to class, the Romanian upper and middle classes were numerically small before
1944, and they do not count heavily in the
data we use. The distinction between city
and countryside, and between educational
levels, give broader categories, that catch the
greatest differences in living conditions both
in capitalist and socialist Romania.
Sources
For the student of development, the sources

are quite abundant up to the Second World
War, except for the great lacunae of 19161918. The basic demographic statistics seem
reasonably accurate, while economic and social data, though numerous, are scattered and
incomplete. They must therefore be used as
qualitative rather than as quantitative indicators. The failure to organize a population
census in 1920, when population and territory suddenly had doubled, and the partial
loss of the 1941 census due to the war, also
create gaps in the statistical series. But a full
scale census was held in 1930, so that one
inter-war base line exists.
After 1944, statistical output has been very
selective. However, renewed publication of
282
Tord Hoivik
Anuarul Statistic in 1957, after 16 years' interruption, was followed by increasingly liberal policies in the late 1960s. But official
statistics are legally defined as state secrets
and can be released only by central government decisions.' It is evident that the statistics available to the economic planners
are much more detailed and cover a wider
range of phenomena than those the outsider
gets access to. Detailed national accounts,
disaggregated price and wage statistics, inter-sectoral matrices and complete family
budget surveys are some of the materials
prepared for internal use only.
Still, I do not believe official secrecy hides
anything important about social and economic conditions today. A growing sociological literature complements the aggregate
data, and newspaper reading and direct observation reveal both the main problems and
the achievements of socialist Romania. What
is hidden is 'only' the detailed apparatus of
decision-making, the internal structure of
the political elite, and the flow of information needed for day-to-day action.
The 1900 cohort: childhood and youth
The first cohort comprises almost 250 thousand children, who were born in a Romania
that was overwhelmingly rural and depressingly poor. More than 80?/o of the parents
that registered the birth of a child in 1900
were workers on the land, while only 6?/o
were artisans or industrial workers, and only
3?Jobelonged to white collar occupations.
Table I. Familybackgroundof 1900 cohort
Father's occupation
Peasant
Artisanor industrialworker
White-collarworker
Otheror undeclared
Total
81%
6%
3%
10%
100%
Source: MiscareaPopulatieifor 1900

Comments:'Peasants' includes all non-industrial
primary production, such as fishermen,woodcutters, etc.
Still, industrial development was transforming the countryside. In the last decade
of the 19th century Romania had become
one of the granaries of Europe, supplying
the expanding cities in other European
countries with foodstuffs for their workers.
At the turn of the century, cereals constituted over 80 O/loof the country'sexports.2
The rapid expansion of grain production
for export had serious consequences for the
rural population. Throughout the 18th and
19th centuries there had been a steady transformation of forest and pasture into arable
land, but by 1900 there was little usable land
left. The new wheat fields brought large
cash incomes to the bigger landlords, but
they made the small peasant much more dependent on the cultivation of cereals to the
exclusion of animal husbandry and use of
the forests for fuel and timber.
The land was extremely unequally distributed, particularly in the plains, which were
most suited for grain production. At a rough
estimate the cultivable land was divided
equally between 4 thousand landlords on the
one hand, and about 900 thousand peasants
on the other. Population growth under these
conditions meant that landless families or
families with too little land for self-sufficiency were being created all the time; and they
of course had to rent land or work as hired
laborers in order to survive.
Observers of the rural situation around
1900 noted that rental terms were becoming
harsher. Instead of the 25 0/0 common a generation earlier, crop sharing agreements now
typically ran to a 50-50 division of the harvest between landlord and tenant. There
were great local variations, but a general
movement towards a cash economy was also
evident.
Duties of a feudal type, like labor, obligatory 'gifts', and dijma, became heavier at the
same time as their commutation to cash payment was progressing.
The peasantry, however, was as exploited
under the new regime as under the old.
While the agricultural surplus was squandered in Monte Carlo or invested in the Pra-
283
survivon
10o0%
(1960 cohort)
(1930 cohort)
so0%
(1900 cohort)
10
20
30
40
50
60
age
70
80
Fig. 1. Survival rates of 1900, 1930 and 1960 cohorts.
Source:computedfrom official statistics.For details,see the longerversion,obtainablefrom

PRIO.
hova valley factories, agriculture remained that 82 children were enrolled per teacher
backward and undercapitalized. The greater in rural, and 56 children per teacher in urlandowners usually did not invest in ferti- ban areas in 1907/08. During the school year,
lizer, irrigation and drainage, seed-corn or many of those enrolled dropped out because
tools; did not, in short, take an interest in they were needed for work at home, because
the school lay far away, or simply because
farming beyond their immediate gains.
The deep and lasting exploitation of the the parents could not imagine what use their
peasantry continued till after World War II, children could make of this strange instituand the scars it left are still visible in So- tion. Girls in the countryside, in particular,
cialist Romania. Whatever reforms socialism had drop-out rates of more than 50 0/ for
brought, it could not abolish people's pasts. the country as a whole.
This may be the single most important fact
Altogether, we estimate that 113 of the coabout Romania in the first half of the twen- hort did finish primary school - 4 years in
tieth century: of all European countries, it the city, 5 years in the countryside - but
had the most oppressed rural population, many more did of course get one or two
and that in a predominantly rural country. years of education without a final exam.
The statistics are telling. Only V/s of the Secondary education was restricted to a few
fathers and 1/s of the mothers of the 1900 percent of the children. Out of the 160 thoucohort could sign their own names when sand individuals left in the cohort around
they married - functional literacy must 1911, only 3-4 thousand boys and 6-8 thouhave been lower. The infant mortality rate sand girls entered secondary schools.
was about 20%o,and with additional deaths
The 1900 cohort experienced two historiin early childhood, 31?lo of our cohort died cal events of great importance in childhood
before the age of 5 years (Fig. 1).
and adolescence. In 1907, peasant unrest A primary school system did exist, but it
is impossible to compute attendance rates

from the data available. We know, however,
endemic for a quarter of a century - turned

into a large-scale revolt. Large properties
were attacked, buildings were burned, and
284
Tord Heivik
Table II. Primary and secondary education of

1900 cohort
'Is of what it had been in 1914 and 1915, and

infant mortality rates of 30-5001o were widespread.
Girls
Boys
Only the roughest of estimates can be
Total
Urban Rural
Urban made about the loss of life in our cohort
inscriptions Rural
during 1916-1918. The population as a whole
Primary
suffered war losses of 8-10%o.8 But since the
1907/08
309,000 44,600 144,000 32,700 persons we are concerned with were 16, 17,
Secondary10/l 1
16,900
2,720
and 18 years at the time, they probably had
Primary drop-out
more resistance to hunger and disease than
54%
during the year 33%
25%
27%
the very young and old people. If we guess
Sources: AnuarulStatisticand Statisticainvatamantului at a 4-501o loss due to the war, between six
publicsi particular.
and eight thousand youths of the 1900 genComments:To the number of pupils in primary eration lost their lives.
schools, about 25,000 in private, mainly urban,
schools must be added. Unfortunately, we have no
figures for single grades, but the numbers still The 1900 cohort: consumption patterns 1920reflect differentials quite well. See also Table 6.
1940
To the poor, food is easily the most imporin a few cases exceptionally hated landtant item in the budget. In Romania in the
owners were killed. The revolt was violently
1920s and 1930s, at least 900/o of the families
repressed (11 thousand dead), but it raised
could be classified as poor, so concern about
the 'peasant question' to the foreground in getting enough to eat was a constant preRomanian political debate and social theooccupation of most adults. As a general rule,
rizing in the following years.
in normal years food was just sufficient in
Our cohort therefore grew up in a troubquality, but seriously deficient in quality. To
led society, with violent discontent just besee why, we must look at agricultural prolow the surface. The villages might be deepduction - at the macro level, and the family traditional, with their buildings based on
lies' budget situation - at the micro level.
hundred year old patterns, with their rudiBefore the 19th century, when population
densities were low, and the villages mostly
mentary tools and primitive cultivation
methods, with drivers hauling produce over
self-sufficient, great parts of Romanian lands
the same dirt roads with the same rough
were used as pasture or left as forest. The
carts as in the past; but the combined efpeasants combined tillage crops with animal
fects of population growth and exposure to husbandry, and this led to a balanced diet
the world market meant that it became ever
- cereals with milk, as well as meat. In the
harder to survive with the old means.
19th century, pressure on this land was
The second event was World War I. After
increasing,
partly because of population
two years of balancing between the Allied
growth, but primarily because feudal and
and the Central Powers, Romania declared
capitalist landowners faced growing possiwar on Austria-Hungary in August, 1916. bilities for export of cereals to the rest of
The boys in our cohort were too young for Europe. Gradually, forest and pasture lands
the army, but the civil population was also were turned into fields, communal lands
were expropriated, and the rural population
exposed to the full weight of war. A German
army occupied southern Romania, including
exploited as cheap labor power.
Bucuresti, food became scarce, a bad harvest
At the same time, the newly introduced
and raging epidemics combined to make livcultures of corn and potatoes expanded raping conditions intolerable. In 1918 the numidly as cheap substitutes for the exportable
ber of births in the Old Kingdom was only
wheat. The new products were an immediate
The Development of Romania:A Cohort Study
285
Table III. Budget situation of urban families, 1938

Recommended diet for
one adult worker
Price
Daily income of adult males
750 g bread
100 g sugar
200 g vegetables
200 g fruit
80 g fats
150 g meat
100 g cheese
250 ml milk
7.5 lei
3 lei
1.5 lei
3 lei
3 lei
4 lei
5 lei
2 lei
Unqualified worker
Qualified worker
Office worker
Professional
Total
29
50-80
100-200
100-150
200-300
lei
lei
lei
lei
lei
Sources: Diet, BuletinulMuncii, 1940, pp. 430-431; Prices, AnuarulStatistic; Incomes, statistics and wage
agreements reported in BuletinAMuncii,
1938.
relief, since a larger population could be
supported on the same land, but a future
danger to the nutritional balance. Corngrowing became the staff of survival to the
peasants, particularly in the Old Kingdom,
and by the 20th century corn-meal, served
as a thick porridge, mamaliga, was the daily
staple in most of Romania.
Combined with milk, cheese, eggs, and
meat, which could add proteins, fats, and
vitamins to the carbohydrates, mamaliga
was a useful part of the diet. But only in the
hill and mountain villages, with abundant
pasture land and a sufficient number of animals, was that possible. On the plains, animals were too few, and their sales value too
high relative to the corn, for animal products to be daily food. The lowland peasant
was forced to eat a poorer diet than in the
past because he and his landlord participated
in a cash economy. Mamaliga, with some
beans or onions, became the daily food week
after week.4
The urban family faced the corresponding dilemma of relative prices on the market. As Table III shows, even a modest but
balanced diet was out of the reach of families in the lower income groups. And even if
the family earned, say, 200 lei daily, and
thus could afford to eat food of sufficiently
high standard, it would be hard to convince
a worker that he should spend his money on
meat and cheese when he could fill his stomach much more cheaply (Table III). There
were always other pressing needs, for rent
and fuel, clothes and shoes, and, not least,
escape. Spending more on quality food
meant spending less on other goods.
The outcome, both in city and countryside, was a diet based mostly on cheap carbohydrates - corn and potatoes - supplemented by the cheapest fruits and vegetables
when they were in season: cabbage, tomatoes, onion, pimentoes, prunes, and peaches.
Wheat bread, milk, eggs, cheese, butter, and
milk were what the middle and upper classes
ate.
Rural conditions 1920-1940

No single region can be taken as representative of all of Romania. This is particularly
true after World War I, when large new
provinces were added to the Old Kingdom.
Bessarabia was poorer than even the poorest
of pre-war Romania, and famous for its brutal and obscurantist landlords. Indicators of
social development place it at the bottom
among Romanian provinces (Table IV.)
The former Hungarian and Austrian territories had been better administered, had
a more equitable distribution of land, and
were ahead with regard to health and literacy. When 5 million 'trans-Carpathians' and
286
Tord Hoivik
Table IV. Regional inequality; health, nutrition and literacy, 1930-40

Region
Infant mortality
urban
rural
Oltenia
Muntenia
Dobrogea
Moldova
Bessarabia
Bucovina
Transylvania
Banat
158
183
199
177
168
198
163
174
169
184
191
189
155
157
138
177
34
29
37
29
54
22
21
16
30
23
31
28
37
18
16
13
33%
32
39
26
54
21
22
18
74%
70
73
67
73
62
64
60
25%
29
26
29
23
32
31
35
Crisana-Maram
191
173
21
16
31
Romania
176
173
34
25
Pre-school mortality
rural
urban
Illiteracy
13-19 yrs
Rural nutrition
CC
PA
Sources: AnuarulStatistic,MiscareaPopulatiei,and Georgescu, D.C. L'alimentation

de la populationruraleen
Roumanie(Bucuresti, 1940).
Comments:Infant mortality data for 1930; pre-school mortality computed as D/N, where D is the average
number of deaths in the 1-4 age group in the years 1934-36, and N is the estimated 1-4 population in
1935, computed from birth figures and mortality rates in the preceding years. Illiteracy data in 13-19
age group from 1930 Census,published in AnuarulStatistic1935136.Nutrition data based on sample of 265
families in 56 villages studied in 1938. CC is the percentage of calories supplied by cereals, PA the
percentage of proteins from animal sources.
3 million Bessarabians were added to the old
population of 7 million, the average development level of Romania did not change much,
but the dispersion increased.
But the provinces of the Old Kingdom are
clearly at a middle level, and we shall give
a resume of living conditions in a Moldovean village at the time our cohort had
married and was bringing up a family.5 The
village, Stoesesti in the county of Tutova,
was 'typical' in the sense of being at a middle
level with regard to living standards. Its location and history of course made it as
unique as any other community.
When the village was investigated by a
student team in 1938, it had 1104 inhabitants
distributed among 280 households. Some of
the families were descended from Bucovinians who had immigrated at the beginning of
the 19th century, and who could still be
distinguished by their features from the rest
of the population. The land of the village
comprised about 1225 hectares. It had been
the exclusive property of a boyar, Scarlat
Mavrogheni, in some distant past, but 225
hectares had been distributed to 126 families
under the land reform in 1864. At the outbreak of World War I, /5 of the land was
still owned by a single family, Grigore and
Maria Perticari (nee Mavrogheni). Under
the land reform of 1921, veterans of the War
got a right to 3.5 hectares of land. This
would have to be taken from the Mavrogheni patrimony, but by declaring most of their
land as unproductive, pasture, fallow, or exposed to floods, the Perticaris lost only 216
hectares.
In 1938, the peasants owned 475 hectares
of the village land, while 750 hectares belonged to the widowed Maria Perticari.
Most of the families owned 1 to 3.5 hectares,
but some were landless, and a few others
had between 5 and 15 hectares, which was
a suitable family holding at the time. A complete and equal redistribution of the land
would have given each household just sufficient land to survive4.4 hectares. The
overpopulation of the village was therefore
relative to the existing property distribution, but population growth would soon
have made it an absolute one.
To supplement the income from their

smallholdings, families leased land from the
Perticari family, with payment in labor, or
hired out as day workers for 20-40 lei a
day. During the summer, two and three families often pooled resources to master the
fluctuating needs for labor during the agricultural cycle. Tools were still very simple,
and as basic a technique as fertilizing with
animal dung was unknown. Wheat and
maize were the most common crops, but low
quality vines (hybrids), fruits, and vegetables
were also grown. A median household would
have a dozen hens or other fowls, an ox, and
possibly a cow, a horse, or a pig.
In the summer season, people worked
from daybreak till nightfall, exhausting themselves completely. Investigations in other regions found that 10-15?/o weight losses were
common during the summer season. In the
winter, almost complete inactivity reigned.
Houses, furniture, and clothing were poor,
and the food extremely monotonous. In the
summer, the basic diet consisted of mamaliga with fruit compotes, in the autumn, of
mamaliga with grapes, in the winter of fried
mamaliga with salt and vinegar. Wine and
spirits were the only common luxuries; while
meat, milk, and bread were eaten only on
the great holidays.
The 1900 cohort: war and revolution
Living conditions in the inter-war period
were at their best at the end of the 1920s,
before the Great Depression led to reductions in workers' and peasants' real incomes;
and immediately before World War II, when
European preparations for war created a
ready market for Romanian products.
The war itself was a catastrophe of equal
severeness to the 1914-19 one. The last semblance of parliamentary politics had vanished in 1938, when King Carol II created a
personal dictatorship. For a short time he
was able to oppose the growing German demands for a definite pro-Axis policy, but
the year 1940 marked the final subordination of the country to the Axis powers. It
became integrated into the German economic sphere as a producer of oil and foodstuffs;
287
the king was forced to take fascist politicians

into the government, and - the final humiliation - the northern part of Transylvania was ceded to Hungary under German
and Italian pressure. When King Carol abdicated in September 1940, Romania was declared a 'national-legionary' state with Ion
Antonescu as Conducator, and it remained a
dominated ally of Germany until August
1944.
In the early war years, when statistics
were still collected, real wages sank to maybe half their former level; severe rationing
was introduced, while food deliveries to the
Germans reduced living standards in the
countryside as well. Laws for the protection
of labor were abrogated, and workers put
under military discipline.
Both the final years as an Axis partner,
and the period following the 1944 political
revolution, which aligned Romania with the
Allied powers, were extremely difficult years
for the population. The 1900 cohort was
probably just old enough to escape the brunt
of military service, but provisioning of
forces, and vast troop movements over Romanian territory necessarily brought great
hardships. Additionally, 1945 and 1946 were
extremely dry years, which led to widespread hunger.
The first decade after World War II
changed Romanian society profoundly. The
series of political events that led from a liberated bourgeois monarchy to a Socialist
People's Republic are clear.6 Their social
consequences and impact on specific generations are much harder to grasp. The 1900
cohort had grown to maturity in a Romania
with deep class differences, dominated by a
small and cultured urban elite. At the end
of World War II this generation belonged
to the age-set from which society's leaders
had usually been drawn. Among the prominent Communist politicians, Lucretiu Patrascanu (b. 1900), Ion Gheorghe Maurer (1902),
Emil Bodnaras (1904), and Vasile Luca
(1898) were in their mid-forties during the
first post-war period.
Filling the very top positions in political,
288
Tord Hoivik
economic, and cultural organizations with

proven Communists or sympathizers was
possible - at the cost of alienating great
sectors of the membership. But the lower
echelons could not be staffed by Party members only. The Old Guard was too small,
with the Party membership estimated at
around 1,000 when the Antonescu regime
was overthrown. Recruitment campaigns
brought in several hundred thousand members during the next five years, of very unequal caliber. Crash courses and technical
schools were set up to turn workers and peasants into technicians and administrators, but
roughly one half of the important middlelevel positions were still filled by the old
middle-class in the early 1950s.7
The period 1947-1953 was one of formidable political and economic pressures.
The Soviet Union treated Romania as a
semi-occupied country, using its productive
facilities to make up for their own war losses, and keeping its political apparatus under
strict control. At the same time, vast investments were undertaken in industry and infra-structure. To feed the growing urban
population, the countryside had to supply
foodstuffs, but the State had few industrial
goods to offer in exchange. Both workers
and farmers faced hardships: the former
through general scarcity and rising demands
at the workplace, the latter through forced
deliveries at low prices and pressures towards collectivization. The widespread discontent was harshly suppressed, by extensive arrests, deportations, and use of forced
labor camps. The numbers involved are unknown, but may amount to 1 or 2 ?/o of the
population. According to Gheorghe Gheorghiu-Dej, at a later and more self-critical
time, about 80,000 peasants were sent to trial
during the struggle against the kulaks,8
while the labor camps are believed to have
had above 150,000 prisoners during their
heyday.
The concomitants of absolute power abuse, torture, and executions - were not
absent, but the number of persons killed
outright may have been relatively low. Mor-
tality in the camps, however, was high. The

general rule of prisons: that conditions are
worse than in the society surrounding them,
meant very harsh conditions indeed. The
tendency of Communist regimes to view any
unwanted behavior as a crime, any crime as
a political act, and any political crime as
being close to treason, meant that legal and
cultural safeguards hardly worked to protect
prisoners. The moral righteousness of the
Party, believed in by some members and
feigned by others, left no rights to those
who opposed its historical mission. Arrest,
mistreatment, release, and rearrest became a
matter of administrative fiat.
Political purges within the Communist
leadership were milder than in most other
Eastern European countries. Lucretiu Patrascanu's execution in 1954, after six years in
prison, is the main exception. When the most
Moscow-loyal leaders, Vasile Luca and Ana
Pauker, were expelled in 1952, Luca had his
death sentence commuted to life imprisonment, while Pauker was not charged at all.
The 1900 cohort: socialism

About 400/0 of the individuals born in 1900
were still alive when the great social transformation brought by communism started.
The relatively few that belonged to the upper classes lost almost all their property and
their privileged status in society. A style of
life disappeared; it had rested on the exploitation of workers, peasants, and servants; but those accustomed to it felt that
the new regime destroyed their inherent
rights. Thousands of them left the country
for good, while those who stayed risked exile
to the villages and general suspicion from
the new authorities.
The great majority, however, experienced
the change differently. Most of them had
been born, had grown up, and spent their
working life in villages, with conflicts over
land and labor a part of daily life. Those
who had lived in the cities, for some years
or permanently, had created wealth for
others without escaping from their own
hand-to-mouth existence. They would have
The Development of Romania: A CohortStudy

preferred a social revolution of different
tenor: stronger on nationalism, populism,
and rural development; without Soviet intervention, dogmatism, and arbitrary 'justice'. But they were against the old order, and
efforts to reimpose it would probably have
led to civil war, as in Greece.
The 1900 cohort continued to work on the
land, whether the plots were their own,
jointly cultivated in a cooperative, or fully
collectivized. In their mid-fifties, 98 /lo of the
men and 86 ?/o of the women in the countryside still participated in the labor force. Ten
years later, 62 ?/o of the men and 42 0/o of the
women continued working.
In the cities, participation rates were going down much more drastically. From 1956
to 1966, the rate for men went from 88 to
32 ?/o, and for women
from 32 to 13 ?0/o.9The
existence of old-age pensions for workers

contributed to the difference between city
and countryside. Only from 1967 was a pension scheme created for the collective farms,
which comprise about one half of all households in the country. Rural pensions are still
low.
Workers' pensions, with full seniority, lie
for most recipients close to the legal minimum wage. Special premiums are given to
workers in dangerous or exhausting occupations, to mothers with numerous children,
and to people who have stayed long at the
same employment. Otherwise, pensions are
graded by former wages, with somewhat less
than proportional inequality.'0
The system does not give complete coverage to old people who are unable to continue working. If support from family or
friends is not available, cases of real destitution can occur. Their extent and severity
it is difficult to know, however. The women
in our cohort may face greater hardships
than the men. Since men on the average marry older and die younger than women, the
percentage of widows in the cohort increases
rapidly with age. At the age of 66, 420/0 of
the women against 10 ?/o of the men were
widowed, and widows' pensions are rather
small.
289
Today, in 1973, one fourth of the 1900

cohort is still alive. After two terrible wars,
and a bitter struggle for a reshaped society,
they see a Romania different from all they
knew in their youth develop. You meet them
in the villages and on the city streets, old
and bent. The women are clothed in long,
black dresses and shawls; the men occasionally wear the local traditional costume. They
walk slowly and talk quietly, while chattering modern youngsters pass them by as if
they were invisible.
The 1930 cohort: childhood

The second cohort, of 625 thousand children,
was two and a half times as large as the
1900 one. Since the fertility rate was about
the same in 1930 as in 1900, the difference
is due to the larger population only. Our
data on parents' background are poorer for
1930 than for 1900, but we can estimate that
about two thirds of the children's families
were peasants in 1930, a moderate decrease
from the 81 ?/o found in 1900. The proportion of artisans or workers had doubled,
while as many as 10 0/o came from the families of public employees.
Table V. Family background of 1930 cohort
Father's occupation
total
urban
Peasant
Artisan or industrial
worker
White-collar worker
Other or undeclared
(of which public
employees)
64%
11%
83%
11%
25%
21%
68%
7%
10%
( 11 %)
(32 %)
(4 %)
rural
Literacy of parents
Total
Urban
Rural
Father
Mother
86%
84%
63%
39%
67%
31%
Sources: 1930 Censusand Miscareapopulatiei.

Comments:The occupational and literacy data refer to the age group 21-40 in the census, and are
assumedto reflect the composition of families having a child in 1930.
290
Tord H0ivik
In 1918-21 extensive agricultural reforms

had been undertaken to still the demands
created by the war and revolutionary movements in surrounding countries. Though the
latifundios had been reduced in size and the
number of smallholdings greatly increased,
the social mechanisms that create inequality
and exploitation were untouched. Overpopulation, the minuscule size and irrational
location of many parcels, and the low technical inputs, made the creation of new landlords and a new rural proletariat inevitable.
Even a more efficient reform could not have
solved the real problem: the weakness of
Romania's industrial development.
The depressed conditions of living are evident from the statistics. The infant mortality
rate of our cohort was about 175 per thousand, an extremely high value considering
the general advance in public health in
Europe since 1900. At the turn of the century
Romania was approximately on a level with
Poland and East Prussia, but by 1930 it lay
at the very bottom of the European league.
More than a quarter of the cohort died before the age of five (Fig. 1.)
Most births took place at home, without a
doctor, but often with a more or less qualified midwife present. When children became
seriously ill, doctors would seldom be called
in rural areas; and even in the cities, infant
deaths happened without medical attention
in about 50 ?/o of the cases.11 Income and
social position meant much for the probability of survival, through the better food,
hygiene, protection, and professional help
available in well-off families. A nationwide
study of death certificates, undertaken in
1973, found a 3 to 1 difference in infant
mortality between families with illiterate
and families with educated (secondary school
or higher) fathers.'2
Schooling was somewhat more widespread
than for the 1900 cohort, but the most definite change was the inclusion of girls from
the countryside in the school system. Their
participation rate more than tripled over
this period (Table VI), and removed most of
the inequality in access to primary school.
Table VI. Participation rates in primary schooling, 1900 and 1930

Birth year
1900
1930
Rural
girls
boys
1.0
2.9
3.1
3.9
Urban
girls
boys
2.0
2.8
3.3
3.6
1907/08
1937/38
School year
Sources: AnuarulStatisticand censuses.

The rates do not include private schools, which
would have increased the urban rates somewhat.
The rates are total inscriptions/cohort size, standardized with rural girls 1900 = 1.0.
Secondary education was so disturbed by
the war that numerical estimates are hard to
make. In the 1930s, however, 3 to 4 years of
schooling was the rule, and only a small
minority had access to further education.
The 1930 cohort: war and revolution

The 1930 cohort was born in a Romania
that was twice as large, in area and population, as the Old Kingdom. The first major
consequence of World War II was the loss
of large territories to Soviet Russia, Hungary, and Bulgaria. Northern Transylvania
was restored to the country in 1945, and need
not concern us here. The permanent loss of
Bessarabia, Northern Bucovina, and Southern Dobrogca, however, meant that about
20 ?/o of the cohort passed under Soviet and
Bulgarian rule.
The war years were extremely turbulent,
with mass migrations, forced transfers of
population, and shifting administration. To
the uncertainty caused by territorial changes
and population movements was added an unknown number of deaths from violence, illness and hunger. From 1939 to 1946 we have
no reliable statistics on population changes.'13
As a very rough guess, of the 440 thousand
children in our cohort at the end of 1939, 85
thousand came to live outside Romania,
while 25 thousand died in the period 1940-
46. This corresponds to an over-mortality of

about 6.5 ?lodue to the war.
Living conditions were miserable throughout the latter part of the war and the early
post-war years. In the city of Bucurcsti,
where infant mortality rates were registered
even during the war, the 1939 rate of 129 per
thousand was not bettered until in 1948.'4
By 1950, pre-war levels of health, education,
and consumption had on the whole been
restored.
The next few years were still hard on the
adult population. The chosen investment
strategy could satisfy neither consumers nor
peasants. Consumption levels remained stagnant in the early 1950Ss,housing problems
became acute in the cities, while the countryside was forced to part with its products at
291
Table VII. Distributionof registereduniversitylevel studentsover time

Subject
Law
Business,economics
Technicalsubjects
1920121 48149
55/56
35.0% 11.0% 4.5%

20.
26.17.0%849.0%
v
?26.0%
49.0%
Science,letters,teaching21.0% 19.0% 23.5%

Medicine,pharmacy 20.0% 20.5% 12.5%
Other
3.5% 6.5% 2.5%
Total
100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: AnuarulStatistic.
suburbs. Most of the change must have occurred after 1948, since rapid urbanization
did not start till then.
very low prices. The modeling of society on
rigid Communist lines, and the Party's suppression of all independent forces, created
an insecure and oppressive social climate.
The 1930 cohort was too young to feel the
full impact of political oppression, however.
They had been teenagers when the Communists came to power and grew to political maturity under the new regime. For most
of them, socialism brought greater access to
education and urban life.
We have already looked at the cohort's
pre-war schooling. After the war, great efforts were made to eradicate illiteracy and
to train personnel for industry and administration. In the 1900 cohort, only 10 ?/o of the
men and 5 /o of the women went beyond
primary school; in the present cohort, the
percentages were twice as high. (This implies, however, the same sex inequality as
before.) The content of higher education
was also changed, with law in particular
being reduced in favor of technical subjects
(Table VII.)
The industrialization drive meant growth
of urban areas, both through migration and
through the incorporation of rural settlements in new and expanding cities. About
13?/o of the cohort, excluding Bessarabia,
was born in urban localities, but at the age
of 36, 43?/o were living in cities, towns, or
The 1930 cohort: living conditions 1950-1970
In 1953, the economic and political pressures of the preceding years were relaxed.
The demands on the peasants were reduced,
and consumer goods and services were given
higher priority in the national economy. The
real income of peasants increased rapidly
once the administrative squeeze was eased.
It took longer to satisfy urban demands,
since it took time to start up production of
consumer goods, but by 1957, both peasants
and workers enjoyed real incomes substantially above 1950 levels.15
If we divide the family expenditures into
three great categories - food, manufactured
goods, and services - we find that the Communists had greatest success in lowering the
costs of services. The cheapness of education,
medicine, housing, public transport, communications, and organized vacations is the
outstanding change in the price structure
brought by socialism.l6 The facilities may
be trowded, but they are not a drain on the
pocketbook. Instead of prices, it is rationing,
administrative allocation, or queues that regulate their distribution.
The other two categories posed constant
dilemmas. Industrialization was impossible
without food for the workers, but the pea-
292
Tord Hoivik
sants would not deliver their surplus without

receiving manufactures - not yet produced
- in exchange. Extracting the surplus by
force took all material incentives out of
farming, and made it rational for the peasants to produce only for their own needs.
Even when the initial socialist accumulation
of capital had been acomplished, conflicting demands for output and manpower continued. Should heavy industry, light industry,
or agricultural inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and construction be favored? How
much food could be consumed on the farms,
and how much was needed to satisfy the urban workers? How could Romania's backward agriculture be modernized when all
the cadres opted for urban occupations?
These are continual problems. Basically,
the leaders have chosen to emphasize heavy
industry, at the same time trying to satisfy
the most insistent consumer demands, and
using the image of future affluence as an incentive for today's workers. All in all, they
have succeeded. When a second industrialization and collectivization drive was started
in 1958, the country was far better equipped
for the effort than in 1948. Consumer industries have been developed alongside metallurgical and chemical complexes, and the
standard sign of affluence - consumer durables - are appearing in ordinary homes.
By 1960, 2 million radios were around; by
1965, half a million TV sets; and by 1970,
115 thousand cars, mostly home-produced,
had been sold.
Food remains a weak point, however. As
long as agriculture is treated as a third priority sector, the population can be supplied
with sufficient staple food, but any abundance of meat, milk, eggs, fruit, and vegetables remains out of reach.
Since a disproportionate number of the
jobs in factories and offices were filled by
younger men, women and older people were
left to do the farm work. Of the 158,000
men in our cohort in 1966, only 58 thousand
worked in agriculture (incl. forestry), compared to 98 thousand in secondary and tertiary occupations. Of the women, however,
84 thousand worked in agriculture, and only

40 thousand in other sectors.
This often meant that families continued
to live on the (collective) farm. The husband
took full-time employment at a local factory
or a neighboring town while the woman put
in a moderate number of work days in the
field, in addition to child care and housework. Since the principal source of income
was outside the collective, interest in its affairs was minimal. agricultural productivity suffered, and it became hard to mobilize
labor for the harvest or other periods of
intense work.
The 1930 cohort: towards the year 2000

From the age of one the Romanian population now has the same survival rates as the
most developed European countries. Since
these countries have been almost unable to
extend life expectations in the last decade,
barring breakwe shall assume that study of deand
the
in
geriatrics
throughs
generative discases - the 1968 life table can
be applied to our cohort for the rest of the
century.
Close to 40?/0 of the 1930 cohort can expect to see the coming of the 21st century.
The changes planned for this period can be
given in a rough outline, based on the longrange plans elaborated in the last couple of
years. Our cohort will be in late middle age,
contributing leaders to the decision-making
elite of the country. Most will be active in
ordinary occupations, however, with somewhat higher incomes and more responsible
tasks than younger and inexperienced workers. Their children will be teenagers and
adults, leaving home, and making a higher
standard of living possible for their parents
during some years before retirement. Since
the cohort has spent its whole working life
in a socialist Romania, pensions will be
much more adequate than for the 1900 cohort. They can, in short, look forward to
steadily improving standards of living, with
a fair amount of security for their old age.
In Ceausescu's words: 'In the period 1970-

1990 real per capita income will increase by
a factor of about 3.5. Food consumption at
the physiologically optimal level will be
secured, needs for shoes and clothing will
be well satisfied, the population will to a
high degree be furnished with consumer durables, and services will be widely available.
We propose that in the period 1976-1990
about 2.5 mill. apartments be constructed, so
that the housing problem will be solved. The
high level of labor productivity will permit
a reduction of the working week to 40-44
hours in 1980'.
The plans are optimistic, but not beyond
the realm of the possible. Romania is rich in
resources, independent in its economic policies, and can use its trade links with socialist,
capitalist and Third World countries to overcome internal bottlenecks. Being a little
more cautious than the Secretary General of
the Party, it is highly probable that the
country can reach the per capita output of
present-day Scandinavia between 1990 and
2000. Since Romania's economic growth has
been much more rapid than that of Denmark, Norway, or Sweden, its stock of
goods - which depends on past production
- will still be below the present Scandinavian level. The housing problem will hardly
be solved this side of year 2000, since demand has a way of increasing jointly with
supply, but it should be much alleviated.
Car production, which began on a small
scale in the mid-sixties, is supposed to increase rapidly, to about 50 thousand a year
in 1975, and almost half a million a year in
1990. If this is realized - and cars represent a sector that can be cut without great
damage to the economy - there might be
about one car for every 6-8 persons in the
1990s. Though less than the present WestEuropean level, this would be sufficient to
create traffic problems of some magnitude,
demanding heavy investment in roads and
parking lots, as well as in petrol stations
and repair shops. However, we hope for a
more progressive solution to the problem of
transport, bypassing the personal car. The
necessary ideas, technologies, and experi-
293
ments are becoming available in time to give

Romania a real choice.
As a centrally directed country, Romania
has the means to cope with the problems of
highly industrialized societies.18 It has already achieved a better balance between the
supply of private consumer goods and public
services than have market economies at the
same level of development. It can attain the
goals of full employment, economic growth,
and stable prices simultaneously, though not
without careful planning. The high taxation
levels of capitalist welfare states are unneccessary when the means of production are
state-owned. Urban and regional planning
become far more effective when the government can limit internal migration by law,
as is the case with regard to large urban
centers in Romania today.
The means carry their own costs, however. Like most socialist countries, Romania
pursues its development goals by a policy of
centrally directed social mobilization. There
is a constant demand for efforts by the
whole population - to raise their level of
political
consciousness, to become more
skilled and competent in their work, and to
increase production in accordance with or
surpassing economic plans.
At the same time, individual and local
initiatives are strictly regulated by the power center. Where guidelines are laid down
by the Party, only initiatives that parallel
party policy are rewarded. Since all formal
organizations, from state and local administration to cultural and inter-nation friendship associations, are guided by the same directives, non-conformist institutional change
is effectively forbidden. The Party's politization of social life destroys politics as an
open, autonomous activity.
Struggles for personal advancement, factional influence, or institutional expansion
do not, of course, disappear. In that sense,
politics cannot be abolished. But even here,
the official line is to hide the discussions and
in-fighting that we know are present. Open
debates over controversial questions are extremely rare. Politics becomes a game that
294
Tord Heivik
is hidden from both the outside observer and

the majority of Romanians.
The country is fully capable of solving its
main economic problems in the years that remain of this century. However, it has hardly
begun to consider its internal political structure. In economics, it is possible to create
wealth from poverty, as Romania has done.
The correspondingpolitical task is more difficult. How can centralism divest itself of
power to interfere in any local decision?
Here means and ends must coincide. The
first step, to admit the existence of a problem, would in itself mean an opening of politics to the people at large. Since no political long-range plan is available, statements
about Romania's political future are out of
place in this paper. But we do feel that it is
in the political sphere that the distance between today's society and the future stateless society imagined by Marx and Lenin is
greatest.
The 1960 cohort: childhood and future
The 352 thousand children of the third cohort
suffered much smaller losses in childhood
than the preceding generations. Less than
10 ?/o of the cohort died in their early years,
compared to more than 30 ?/o of the 1900 and
1930 cohorts.
Post-war urbanization meant that about
half the children were born in towns and
cities. Even before they began school, in
1967, a seven-year primary school had been
universal. In 1969, ten years' compulsory
education was introduced, so the cohort is
presently still in school. They will generally
take their final exams in 1977, and for the
most part enter working life around 197879. At the turn of the century they will be
in mid-life, producing and consuming at
comfortable levels, according to present economic plans.
The most immediate problems facing this
cohort concern their future education and
occupational status. Compared with most
capitalist countries
except Japan -
Ro-
mania has invested very heavily in primary
education at an early stage of the country's

development. The introduction of compulsory ten years' schooling placed Romania
ahead of all Scandinavian countries. The
student intake to higher education is, however, restricted by the planners' estimates of
the economic need for graduates in the
1980s. The 320 thousand school-leavers in
our cohort must compete for one tenth that
number of admissions about 1978. Competition is correspondinglyintense.19
The use of political and social criteria in
the selection of students is being reduced,
except for the most sensitive areas like philosophy, law, and foreign trade. Scholastic
achievement becomes the sole remaining selector variable. To the 1960 cohort, the entrance examinations to higher education will
largely determine their occupational future.
Despite Romania's great efforts at regional development, there are still important differences between city and countryside, between smaller cities and large ones, between
Bucuresti and the rest of the country. The
range of goods and services available, the
general cultural level, and the case of access
to decision-makers differ so much that many
persons do all in their power to avoid ending up in the periphery.
The educational system loosens people
from the rural localities, and its higher levels collect them in the most developed cities.
But since jobs are distributed throughout the
country, most school-leavers and graduates
will have to return to provincial life. It is the
top-scorers who are allowed to select first
from the available positions; and since they
generally choose the most attractive big city
jobs, the status of the provinces as dull and
underdeveloped is reinforced.
Social mobilization need not lead to centralization, but it takes a very determined
policy to avoid it. The educational policy
chosen by the Romanian government, combined with the emphasis on industrial
growth, has created a stratification process
that can lead to permanent social inequalities. The alternative, a development strategy along Cuban or Chinese lines, with rural

areas having priority, shows no signs of appearing today.
Looking backward
Returning to our definition of development,
what Romania has achieved in a generation
is impressive. Health, education, and the reduction of unemployment were the first
areas to be improved. Consumption levels
were kept static for almost a decade after
the revolution, partly to allow a very high
investment rate, partly as a result of the
violent reorganization of economic and political life undertaken by the new regime.
Now, they are moving steadily upwards, and
a degree of material comfort should be universal within a decade or two. Without a
comparable study of, say, Greece or Portugal, it is hard to say how much of this development is due to the Socialist character
of the state. But the difficulties imposed on
the country by the war and its aftermath,
when part of its resources was taken to rebuild the Soviet economy, imply that success was obtained under great initial handicaps.
I would therefore call Romania's development successful in terms of the passive or
consumption oriented values. The population does receive medical attention and education, and will receive more and more consumer goods. Inequality in access to these
goods is also being removed by the industrialization of the regions and of agriculture
itself.
But quality of life also means the realization of active values. I have already mentioned political activity. Neither in local, regional, nor national affairs does ultimate
power rest with the ordinary people. But
according to official ideology it does, hence
a set of formal representative institutions go
through the motions of democratic decisionmaking. One way to achieve political development, is to give them the substance of
power, and for the present this must be by
decision from above.
To a great extent, Romania's develop-
295
ment goal has been to catch up with Western Europe. Far too much attention is given
to physical outputs, far too little to social
institutions, as aims in themselves. After
many years of disregard, social life is fortunately now being dealt with as a serious
subject for study, but the aim seems rather
to solve social problems, than to develop
social creativity.
Intellectual creativity is to a great extent
accepted in the arts and humanities, excepting the most politically sensitive areas. Intellectual freedom is not guaranteed, however, and those who explore the boundaries
of the acceptable (which intellectuals have a
disposition to do) get unpleasant shocks
when cultural policies are tightened up.
What is ultimately more dangerous to Romania's development as a socialist society,
however, is the fear of letting Marxist theory
develop further. Expressionist plays and
textbooks of capitalist economics are signs
of a certain liberality, and people may enjoy
getting acquainted with them. But a Socialist
nation has more need of ideas for its own
future, and they cannot be imported from
the West. Without creative political economy, social theory and analytical modern
history, Romania as well as other Socialist
countries stand in danger of not developing
further in a socialist direction. And it is
hardly the artists that challenge Socialism,
but the production and management tools
taken - with a purely technical understanding - from the advanced Capitalist world.
NOTES
* Four persons contributed materially to our
opportunity for research in Romania: Prof. Mircea
Malita, Prof. Pavel Apostol, Mlle Claudia Dimitriu, and Johan Galtung. The Romanian Ministry
of Education and the Norwegian Research Council
for Science and the Humanities covered most of
the expenses. The staff at the central library of
the National Academy of Sciences in Bucuresti
was courteous and helpful. My deep thanks to all
of them.
This article forms part of the research project
Development indicators at the national level and
296
Tord Hoivik
12. Boiu, A. Contributiuni la studiul cauzelor

mortalitatii infantile (Bucuresti, 1937).
can be identified as PRIO publication no. 26-13
from the International Peace Research Institute,
13. Frumkin, Gregory: Population changes in
Oslo. A longer version, with more demographic Europe since 1939 (London: Allen & Unwin,
data, is available from the Institute.
1951), p. 129 has valuable estimates.
1. Hotarirea Nr. 19/1972 a Conciliului de Mi14. Anuarul de statistica medico-sanitara al
nistri, Legislatie privind organizarea de stat, Nr. orasului Btucuresti1966.
2, Bucuresti 1972.
15. Montias, John M. Economic development in
2. The best short introduction to Romania's communist Rumania (Cambridge, Mass. and Lonrural situation in the first half of this centrury is don: MIT Press, 1967), p. 50.
H. L. Roberts, 1969: Rumania: political problems
16. Taigar, S. Veniturile populatiei si nivelul
of an agrarian state, Archon Books (reprint of
1951 edition), pp. 3-21. See also L. Patrascanu: de trai in R.S.R. (Bucuresti, 1964), pp. 96, 97, 223.
Un veac de framintari sociale 1821-1907, Bucu17. Conferinta nationala a P.C.R. (Bucuresti:
resti 1969, pp. 280-341, and the materials in the Editura politica, 1972), pp. 38-39.
collective work Marea rascoala a taranilor din
18. Lodgaard, S. Industrial cooperation, con1907, Bucuresti 1967, pp. 31-154.
sumption patterns, and division of labor in the
3. N. T. lonescu, 1922: Miscarea populatiunei East-West setting, Journal of Peace Research, 4,
in Vechiul Regat si Basarabia pe anul 1919, Bule- 1973.
tinul Statistic, nr. 8, pp. 30-53.
4. There is a good historical survey and summaries of Romanian nutrition studies in I. Claudian, 1939: Alimentatia poporului roman, Bucuresti.
5. M. Tiriung et al., 1943: Stoesesti: Un sat eu
mosie boereasca in Tutova, in the collective work
60 sate Romanesti, Bucuresti, 1941-43, vol. 4, pp.
53-64.
19. Radio Free Europe: Rumanian situation re-
ports 29 and 38, 1973.
SUMMARY
The paper surveys Romania's social development in the 20th century through the eyes of
two generations - born in 1900 and in 1930.
6. Roberts, op.cit., Ionescu, Ghita Communism Through statistical analysis the paper reveals
in Rumania 1944-1962 (London: Oxford U. P., the gradual transformation of the agrarian
1964), and Fischer-Galati, Stephen Twentieth Romania with predominance of rural economy
Century Rormania(New York and London: Co- during the first quarter of this century into
lumbia U. P., 1970) are the most important treatan agro-industrial Romania in the second
ments in English.
quarter of the century extended up to 1960
with
an improving correlation of agriculture
7. lonesco,Ghita, op.cit., pp. 167-69.
and industry (heavy and most essential con8. Quoted by Ionescu, op.cit., p. 201.
sumer goods). Important aspects studied here
9. Computed from census data, 1956 and 1966.
included comparative consumption patterns,
10. Bistriceanu, Gh. D. Sistemul asigurarilor and rural conditions in the Romania of 19201940 and 1950-1970 and social effects of the
sociale din Romania (Bucuresti: Editura Academ- First and Second
World Wars as well as revoica R.S.R., 1968), pp. 172-95.
lution. Finally, it throws some light on Roma11. Manuila, Sabin,'Asistenta nasterilor in Ro- nia's trends of
development towards the year
mania si influenta ei asupra mortalitatii infantile',
its
impact
2000
and
on the 1930 cohorts.
Cartea Romaneasca,Bucuresti, 1938.

The Development of Romania

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The Development of Romania: A Cohort Study

Author(s): Tord Hivik