WORLD ESTIMATES

HIGHLIGHTS
The projection for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains)
production in 2015/16 is 3m t lower m/m (month-on-month), at
1,996m, about 2% below last seasons record. Nearly all the m/m
decrease is for maize (corn), with a higher estimate in the US offset
by drought-related reductions in Ethiopia, South Africa and China.
Consumption is expected to show a fractional y/y (year-on-year) gain
to 1,992m t, mainly on a sustained rise in food demand. The feed use
figure is slightly lower than before owing to likely reduced uptake of
imported sorghum in China. The anticipated cut in sorghum
shipments to that country is reflected in a downward revision to total
grains trade, to 314m t. With US exports of sorghum likely to be
curtailed, more is expected to be used locally in place of maize,
including for ethanol and feed. The global grains stocks forecast is
unchanged m/m, at a 29-year high of 454m t.
The projection of world soyabean production in 2015/16 is lifted by
2m t, to 321m, matching last years all-time peak. However, reflecting
a reduced figure for opening stocks, coupled with an upward revision
to total use, the forecast of aggregate carryovers is down slightly from
October, with most of the adjustment due to the major exporters.
Nevertheless, at 46.7m t, inventories would still be up by 4% y/y at a
fresh high. The outlook for trade is upgraded to about 129m t, with
Chinas needs accounting for the modest y/y rise. Brazil is seen as
the largest exporter in 2015/16, its shipments significantly exceeding
those by the US.
Global rice output in 2015/16 is forecast broadly unchanged from
October, at around 474m t, a marginal fall from the previous years
record. Owing to smaller opening stocks and with consumption likely
to expand to a new peak, global end-season reserves are anticipated
to tighten markedly, by 12%, to 94m t mostly on steep declines in
the major exporters. Projected trade is maintained at 41.5m t, down
fractionally y/y, but well above average on firm demand from buyers
in Asia in particular.
Bearish fundamentals pressured export values in November, with the
IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) weakening by 3%.

12/13
million tons

TOTAL GRAINS

13/14

14/15
est.

a)

Production

15/16
f'cast
29.10
19.11

1797

2006

2030

1999

271

310

322

315

314

1820

1932

1989

1991

1992

Carryover stocks

336

409

450

454

454

year/year change

-23

74

40

98

120

145

142

149

Production

655

714

723

726

726

Trade

142

156

153

150

151

Consumption

677

696

710

718

720

Carryover stocks

170

188

201

209

208

year/year change

-21

18

14

Trade
Consumption

Major exporters

b)

1996

WHEAT

Major exporters

b)

50

54

63

67

69

Production

869

997

1013

970

967

Trade

100

122

125

125

125

Consumption

866

947

987

974

974

Carryover stocks

132

181

207

200

200

year/year change

50

26

MAIZE (CORN)

Major exporters

c)

-7

33

51

63

59

60

272

285

321

319

321

99

113

127

126

129

266

281

308

317

319

Carryover stocks

28

32

45

49

47

year/year change

13

SOYABEANS
Production
Trade
Consumption

Major exporters

d)

11
12/13

14
13/14
est.

25
14/15
f'cast

million tons (milled basis)

33

30

15/16
proj.
29.10
19.11

RICE
Production

473

478

478

474

38

43

42

42

42

Consumption

469

479

483

487

486

Carryover stocks

113

112

107

94

year/year change

-2

-5

40

38

31

Trade

Major exporters

e)

474

94
-13

21

21

Figures may not add due to rounding

a)
Wheat and coarse grains
b)
Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US
c)
Argentina, Brazil, Ukraine, US
d)
Argentina, Brazil, US
e)
India, Pakistan, Thailand, US, Vietnam

IGC GRAINS & OILSEEDS INDEX (GOI)

350

Jan 2000 = 100

300

250

200

2015

2014

2010-14 range

150
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

See: http://www.igc.int/grainsupdate/igc_goi.xlsb

O V E RV I E W

Sep

Nov

Dec

harvested area is projected at 221.8m ha, down almost 1% y/y.

Grains production in 2015/16 to be down 2% y/y, mainly
on lower maize output.
Despite strong demand, a further rise in stocks is
forecast, to their highest in 29 years, but with an
increased share in China.
World wheat harvested area in 2016/17 seen falling by
less than 1%.
Global soyabean output is projected to match the
previous years record, with end-season stocks likely
to edge higher, to a fresh peak.
Rice trade to remain historically high in 2016 on sales
to key buyers in Asia.
Total grains: Supply and demand summary
mt

12/13

13/14

14/15

15/16

y/y

336

(est.)
409

(f'cast)
450

change

359

Production
Total supply

1,797
2,156

2,006
2,342

2,030
2,439

1,996
2,446

Total use
of which: Food
Feed
Industrial
Closing stocks

1,820
637
772
299
336

1,932
651
840
316
409

1,989
660
879
323
450

1,992
666
877
327
454

+ 0.2%

a)

98
271

120
310

145
322

149
314

+ 3.2%
- 2.3%

Opening stocks

major exporters
Trade (Jul/Jun)

+ 9.9%
- 1.7%
+ 0.3%
+ 1.0%

Against the backdrop of tentative prospects for a marginal

expansion of harvested area, together with above-average
yields, global soyabean production in 2015/16 could match
last seasons peak. While growing demand for soyabean
products is expected to contribute to a 3% rise in consumption,
end-season inventories are still seen edging up to a new high
as accumulation in the major exporters compensates for
declines elsewhere, primarily in China. A modest increase in
deliveries to that market is likely to boost trade to a record of
129m t. Soyameal import demand could reach a high of 63m t
on heavy sales to feed users in the EU and Far East Asia.
World rice output in 2015/16 is seen 1% lower than the
previous years peak as disappointing crops in some
producers including India and Thailand are only partly
offset by improved harvests elsewhere in Asia. With food
demand expected to underpin record consumption, aggregate
end-season inventories are set to contract markedly almost
entirely tied to a drop of one-third in the major exporters. Trade
is anticipated to remain historically high in calendar 2016 on
shipments to a number of Asian markets, including Indonesia
and the Philippines, amid state efforts to ensure ample
domestic supplies. Thailand is seen as the biggest exporter for
the first time since 2011.

- 0.2%
+ 1.2%

M A R K E T S U M M A RY

+ 0.9%

a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US

World total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in

2015/16 is expected to be down only slightly y/y. Bumper
outturns of wheat, barley and sorghum were outweighed by a
fall for maize, although output of that crop could still be the
third largest ever.
Total consumption is placed marginally higher y/y, at 1,992m t.
Food use is forecast to expand by 1%, broadly matching
population growth. Strong demand for livestock products will
underpin feeding, while industrial use is seen climbing by 1%,
led by uptake for starch. Global end-2015/16 stocks (aggregate
of respective local marketing years) are projected to expand by
4m t, to 454m, the most since the mid-1980s, including a
further rise in the major exporters. However, Chinas share of
the world total could be the biggest in 15 years, with
inventories there largely inaccessible to the global grains
economy. A 7m t fall in world trade is forecast, to 314m, mainly
because of smaller wheat and barley imports in Near East Asia
and North Africa.
Northern hemisphere 2016/17 winter wheat sowing is almost
finished. Conditions are mostly good, but concerns persist
about dryness in some parts, especially in Ukraine.
Incorporating assumptions for spring wheat plantings and the
next southern hemisphere crops, world

After gains in the previous two months, most grains and

oilseeds export prices have eased since the last GMR. While
markets were occasionally underpinned by unfavourable
weather, including in parts of the Black Sea region, the
Americas and Asia, prices gradually turned lower on a
renewed focus on bearish supply and demand fundamentals.
The IGC GOI dropped by 3% from late October and is down by
19% y/y.
Losses in barley markets were particularly pronounced, with
average export prices falling by 4% on currency movements,
reduced buying by China and seasonal harvest pressure in
Australia. The wheat and soyabean indices both declined by
3%.
IGC Grains & Oilseeds Prices Index (GOI)*
GMR 461

Change**

y/y
change

IGC GOI

183

- 2.6%

- 18.9%

Wheat sub-Index
Maize sub-Index
Barley sub-Index
Rice sub-Index
Soyabeans sub-Index

169
177
181
152
175

- 3.3%
- 0.2%
- 3.8%
- 0.2%
- 3.3%

- 24.1%
- 8.3%
- 17.9%
- 12.8%
- 21.5%

*Jan 2000=100, **Change vs. GMR 460

White and parboiled rice export prices were narrowly

mixed amid few fresh developments. Earlier large
purchases by Asian buyers through diplomatic channels
mildly underpinned, as did diminishing crop prospects
due to the impact of El Nio. However, with some export
values weighed by currency movements, the IGC GOI
sub-Index was broadly unchanged.

Wheat: GOI sub-Index

Jan 2000 = 100

360

320

280

Soyabeans: GOI sub-Index

240
Jan 2000 = 100

360
200
320
160

2015

2014

2010-14 range

280

120
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Nov

Dec
240

World wheat quotations mostly weakened, pressured by

large spot availabilities and with exporters competing for
limited business. With worries about poor crop weather
in some areas also subsiding slightly, the IGC GOI subIndex dropped by 3% from the last report, down 24% y/y.

200

160

2015

2014

2010-14 range

120
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Nov

Dec

Maize: GOI sub-Index

World soyabean markets were weaker since the last
GMR, the IGC GOI sub-Index falling by around 3%.
Despite mild support from firm export demand and
technical features, pressure stemmed from prospects for
ample global supplies, with better than expected harvest
results in the US and an improvement in planting
conditions in South America.

Jan 2000 = 100

360

320

280

240

More detailed analysis, including US dollar fob export

prices and commentary on other grains and oilseeds
markets is included within the report.

200

160

2015

2014

2010-14 range

120
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Nov

Dec

With mixed trends across the main origins, the IGC GOI
maize sub-Index was broadly unchanged compared to
late October. However, US prices have recently
declined, resulting in narrower spreads between the
leading exporters.
Rice: GOI sub-Index
Jan 2000 = 100

240

220

200

180

160

140

2015

2014

2010-14 range

120
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Nov

Dec

SUPPLY & DEMAND: TOTAL GRAINS#

Million tons

Opening Production Imports

stocks

Total
supply

Use
Food Industrial Feed

Total a)

Exports Closing
stocks

TOTAL GRAINS
Argentina **
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

3.1
6.3
9.8

51.0
54.3
44.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

(45.0)

Australia **
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

5.8
5.6
5.3

37.6
35.6
36.3

54.1
60.7
54.3

4.6
5.0
4.9

2.4
2.8
2.9

(54.8)

0.0
0.0
0.0

43.4
41.2
41.6

14.3
14.9
12.5

23.1
24.6
21.5

24.6
26.3
25.9

6.3
9.8
6.9

(12.4)

(21.4)

(26.9)

(6.5)

2.2
2.2
2.3

0.8
0.8
0.8

7.6
6.7
7.6

11.6
10.8
11.7

26.1
25.2
25.2

5.6
5.3
4.8

3.2
2.9
2.8

6.1
6.3
6.4

19.5
18.2
18.6

30.1
28.8
29.3

30.2
29.1
24.6

14.9
10.3
7.2

(41.7)

Canada

2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

8.1
14.9
10.3

66.2
51.4
49.4

0.8
2.0
1.3

(10.1)

EU*

2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

Kazakhstan
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
Russia

Ukraine

USA

2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

21.8
25.4
29.5

(60.9)

(7.0)

301.3
326.4
308.0

20.4
16.1
18.6

343.6
367.9
356.1

(307.8)

(18.7)

(356.0)

2.6
2.3
3.0

17.5
16.6
17.3

0.0
0.4
0.2

20.0
19.3
20.5

2.5
2.5
2.5

8.7
7.9
10.0

88.7
100.5
100.1

1.2
0.5
0.7

98.6
108.9
110.8

15.9
16.3
16.4

(11.0)

(100.6)

63.6
63.5
63.9

5.3
7.3
9.1

62.4
64.5
61.0

(7.9)

(59.0)

43.1
50.4
67.6

425.6
432.7
424.2

35.0
35.9
36.4

161.0
171.6
165.7

273.7
284.8
279.8

44.5
53.6
45.1

25.4
29.5
31.2

(165.6)

(279.7)

(45.3)

(31.1)

0.2
0.2
0.2

4.0
4.5
4.2

9.0
10.0
9.2

8.8
6.4
6.9

2.3
3.0
4.4

4.6
4.6
4.5

32.0
35.1
36.1

66.0
68.4
69.0

24.8
30.5
31.8

7.9
10.0
10.0

(31.7)

(11.6)

(112.3)

0.1
0.0
0.0

67.8
71.8
70.1

7.3
7.1
7.1

0.9
0.9
0.9

15.4
15.6
15.8

28.3
27.8
28.0

32.2
34.8
33.3

7.3
9.1
8.9

(15.6)

(27.8)

(31.9)

(7.3)

164.5
164.8
166.5

140.0
143.1
145.7

339.5
343.2
347.6

87.0
80.4
75.2

50.4
67.6
75.9

(166.7)

(144.1)

(346.2)

(78.5)

(69.0)

214.4
216.4
218.5

393.8
409.6
406.2

781.3
798.3
796.1

278.2
286.3
268.0

120.0
144.6
149.2

(218.7)

(404.2)

(794.2)

(270.9)

(141.5)

58.7
62.5
64.8

165.1
177.3
181.7

340.8
356.1
362.2

1.0
0.9
1.2

147.9
166.8
180.8

(183.7)

(365.2)

15.0
17.0
16.7

131.6
133.4
135.6

10.4
5.1
2.4

20.5
20.0
12.7

(16.5)

(135.4)

(67.0)

8.2
8.1
6.9

(419.1)

MAJOR EXPORTERS b)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

75.2
68.3
61.1

476.9
491.1
498.7

32.2
32.2
32.6

(493.6)

98.5
120.0
144.6

1,050.3
1,082.0
1,040.8

30.8
27.2
27.8

(144.2)

(1034.6)

123.0
147.9
166.8

348.1
349.8
357.4

18.5
26.2
20.0

489.6
523.9
544.2

(160.9)

(364.4)

(22.0)

(547.3)

25.7
20.5
20.0

136.6
137.8
130.0

0.1
0.3
0.6

162.4
158.6
150.7

1,179.6
1,229.2
1,213.2

131.4
131.7
132.4

(1206.6)

China
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

96.6
96.4
95.8

India
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

(20.3)

WORLD TOTAL
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

99.9
101.8
103.9

4.4
4.8
5.1

(150.9)

c)

(13.1)

c)

335.9
409.4
449.9

2,006.0
2,029.6
1,996.1

310.1
321.7
314.4

2,341.9
2,439.1
2,446.0

650.7
659.6
666.4

316.3
322.8
326.8

840.1
878.9
876.9

1,932.5
1,989.2
1,992.2

310.1
321.7
314.4

409.4
449.9
453.8

(447.0)

(1998.8)

(314.9)

(2445.8)

(663.4)

(327.1)

(878.0)

(1991.4)

(314.9)

(454.4)

SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL WHEAT#

Million tons

Opening Production
stocks

Imports
d)

Total
supply

Use
Food Industrial Feed

Exports Closing
d)
stocks

Total a)

WHEAT
Argentina (Dec/Nov)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

0.2
1.7
4.5

9.2
13.9
10.4

0.0
0.0
0.0

9.4
15.6
14.9

4.2
4.5
4.5

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.4
0.4
0.4

5.2
5.7
5.7

2.5
5.4
5.5

1.7
4.5
3.7

Australia (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

4.7
4.9
4.8

25.3
23.7
24.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

30.1
28.6
28.8

1.9
1.9
2.0

0.5
0.5
0.5

3.5
4.0
3.7

6.6
7.1
6.8

18.6
16.8
17.8

4.9
4.8
4.2

Canada (Aug/Jul)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

5.1
10.4
7.1

37.5
29.4
26.1

0.1
0.1
0.1

42.6
39.8
33.2

2.8
2.6
2.6

0.8
0.9
0.9

4.1
4.4
4.3

8.8
8.9
8.8

23.5
23.9
20.2

10.4
7.1
4.2

EU* (Jul/Jun)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

8.8
9.5
12.0

143.2
156.1
157.7

4.1
6.2
5.6

156.1
171.8
175.3

54.3
54.5
54.7

10.3
10.8
10.8

43.0
52.2
56.0

113.8
123.6
127.8

32.8
36.3
31.6

9.5
12.0
15.8

(5.7)

(175.4)

135.0
148.5
149.3

2.2
3.4
3.8

146.0
161.0
164.3

(149.7)

(3.9)

(164.8)

(31.8)

of which common wheat

2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

8.7
9.1
11.2

47.3
47.3
47.5

10.3
10.8
10.8

43.0
52.2
56.0

106.1
115.8
120.0

30.7
34.0
29.4

9.1
11.2
14.9

(29.7)

(15.1)

Kazakhstan (Jul/Jun)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

2.1
1.7
2.4

13.9
13.0
14.0

0.0
0.4
0.2

16.1
15.1
16.6

2.2
2.2
2.2

0.0
0.0
0.0

1.7
2.0
2.0

6.0
6.8
6.4

8.4
5.9
6.5

1.7
2.4
3.8

Russia (Jul/Jun)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

7.3
6.1
6.9

52.1
59.1
60.6

1.0
0.4
0.4

60.4
65.6
67.9

12.9
12.9
13.0

1.5
1.5
1.5

12.4
14.0
14.5

35.8
36.6
37.0

18.5
22.2
23.7

6.1
6.9
7.1

(7.5)

Ukraine (Jul/Jun)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
USA (Jun/May)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
MAJOR EXPORTERS b)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

(68.5)

3.0
3.9
5.5

22.3
24.7
27.5

(4.7)

(26.0)

19.5
16.1
20.5

58.1
55.1
55.8

50.8
54.2
63.5

361.6
375.1
376.1

0.0
0.0
0.0

25.3
28.6
33.0

(23.6)

5.8
5.7
5.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

(30.7)

4.6
4.1
3.4

9.8
11.2
9.7
(9.8)

82.3
75.3
79.7

422.2
440.5
449.3

25.5
25.6
25.7

109.6
109.9
110.4

0.6
0.5
0.5

13.9
14.4
14.4

(447.7)

3.5
4.0
4.7

11.9
12.0
12.9

(4.5)

(12.7)

6.2
3.3
4.9

34.2
31.6
33.1

(5.0)

(33.2)

74.8
84.4
90.5

9.5
11.2
14.6
(14.0)

32.0
23.2
21.8

(7.8)

3.9
5.5
5.5
(4.0)

16.1
20.5
24.8

(22.6)

(23.9)

222.3
232.2
238.5

145.7
144.8
141.8

54.2
63.5
69.1

(90.4)

(238.4)

(142.0)

(67.3)

(63.3)

(374.6)

China (Jul/Jun)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

53.7
58.7
64.9

121.9
126.2
129.0

6.7
2.1
2.0

182.4
187.1
195.9

88.0
87.5
87.1

3.2
3.2
3.2

23.0
22.0
22.0

123.3
121.9
121.6

0.3
0.2
0.4

58.7
64.9
73.9

India (Apr/Mar)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

24.2
18.0
17.2

93.5
95.9
88.9

0.0
0.3
0.6

117.7
114.1
106.8

78.5
80.7
82.5

0.2
0.2
0.2

5.0
5.0
5.0

93.7
93.5
95.3

6.0
3.4
0.5

18.0
17.2
10.9

WORLD TOTAL
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

170.0
187.7
201.3

713.8
723.1
726.2

156.3
153.1
150.8

883.9
910.8
927.4

471.9
477.6
483.5

21.6
22.0
22.1

132.9
140.1
146.4

696.2
709.5
719.6

156.3
153.1
150.8

187.7
201.3
207.8

(200.8)

(725.9)

(149.9)

(926.7)

(145.9)

(718.2)

(149.9)

(208.5)

e)

e)

SUPPLY & DEMAND: MAIZE#

Million tons

Opening Production Imports

stocks

Total
supply

Use
Food Industrial Feed

Exports Closing
stocks

Total a)

MAIZE
Argentina (Mar/Feb)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 f'cast

0.5
1.8
3.0
3.8

32.1
33.1
33.8
26.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0

32.6
34.9
36.8
30.8

0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3

1.8
2.0
2.2
2.3

9.3
11.5
12.0
9.4

12.2
14.8
15.5
12.4

18.6
17.1
17.5
16.0

1.8
3.0
3.8
2.5

Brazil (Mar/Feb)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 f'cast

5.1
8.5
13.9
12.8

81.5
80.1
84.7
81.4

0.6
0.8
0.4
0.5

87.2
89.4
98.9
94.8

4.0
4.1
4.1
4.1

1.7
1.9
2.2
2.2

44.9
45.6
47.0
49.1

53.7
54.6
56.1
58.1

24.9
21.0
30.0
26.0

8.5
13.9
12.8
10.7

(25.0)

(15.3)

(16.5)

(98.4)

EU* (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

5.2
6.6
7.3

64.2
76.2
57.6

15.8
9.4
12.5

85.2
92.2
77.4

4.2
4.2
4.2

13.8
14.1
14.5

56.2
60.0
49.5

76.3
80.9
70.6

2.3
4.0
1.7

6.6
7.3
5.1

South Africa (May/Apr)

2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
2016/17 f'cast

1.5
0.9
2.4
1.9

12.4
15.0
10.6
11.5

0.1
0.0
0.7
0.4

14.0
15.8
13.7
13.8

5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

5.0
5.2
5.0
5.3

11.1
11.4
11.2
11.6

2.1
2.0
0.6
0.8

0.9
2.4
1.9
1.4

(1.2)

(1.3)

9.8
9.9
8.6

19.9
18.9
15.5

2.5
2.3
1.2

(1.6)

(12.5)

(0.0)

(14.1)

Ukraine (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

1.3
2.5
2.3

30.9
28.5
23.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

32.2
31.0
25.3

0.5
0.5
0.5

0.3
0.3
0.3

7.7
8.0
7.0

USA (Sep/Aug)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

20.9
31.3
44.0

351.3
361.1
346.8

0.9
0.8
0.8

373.0
393.2
391.6

5.1
5.1
5.2

159.3
161.1
160.8

128.0
135.1
134.5

292.9
301.9
301.1

48.8
47.3
44.0

31.3
44.0
46.5

(162.7)

(133.0)

(301.5)

(45.0)

(40.6)

49.0
53.0
55.0

135.8
138.0
145.0

202.4
208.6
217.6

0.2
0.2
0.2

86.1
98.4
103.7

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.8
0.5
0.5

f)

(342.3)

China (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
Japan (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
WORLD TOTAL
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
#

66.9
86.1
98.4

218.5
215.6
220.0

(92.5)

(227.0)

0.5
0.8
0.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

(387.1)

3.3
5.5
3.0

288.7
307.2
321.4

7.3
7.6
7.6

(322.5)

15.4
14.3
14.7

15.9
15.1
15.2

(14.8)

(15.3)

(218.6)

1.1
1.1
1.1

3.4
3.4
3.2

10.4
9.7
10.1

15.2
14.5
14.7

(10.2)

(14.8)

g)

g)

131.5
181.1
207.3

996.7
1,013.0
967.3

121.7
124.8
125.3

1,128.3
1,194.1
1,174.6

109.6
111.1
110.7

256.8
263.7
265.5

545.6
574.0
563.4

947.1
986.8
974.1

121.7
124.8
125.3

181.1
207.3
200.5

(204.7)

(969.7)

(124.9)

(1174.5)

(107.8)

(267.4)

(562.7)

(974.4)

(124.9)

(200.0)

IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in this report.
Years shown for southern hemisphere countries include following marketing years for maize and sorghum. For example, for Argentina, the
"2013/14" year includes the 2013/14 (Dec/Nov) local marketing year for wheat and the 2014/15 (Mar/Feb) marketing year for maize.

a) Including seed and waste.

f) Includes residual.

b) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan,

g) IGC July/June trade

Russia, Ukraine, United States

h) Excludes trade in malt

c) Includes trade in malt.

Totals may not sum due to rounding.

d) Including estimated trade in secondary products

Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

e) IGC July/June trade: excluding trade in secondary products

SUPPLY & DEMAND: ALL RICE#

Million tons (milled basis)

Opening

Production

Imports

stocks

Total

Total

supply

use a)

Exports

Closing
stocks

India (Oct/Sep)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

23.4
22.0
16.7

106.7
104.8
103.6

0.0
0.1
0.1

130.1
126.9
120.4

97.5
98.7
100.0

10.5
11.6
9.2

22.0
16.7
11.2

Pakistan (Nov/Oct)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

0.6
0.8
1.1

6.8
6.9
6.8

0.1
0.1
0.1

7.5
7.8
7.9

2.8
2.8
2.9

3.9
3.9
3.9

0.8
1.1
1.1

13.2
11.8
9.9

20.3
18.7
16.6

0.3
0.2
0.2

33.7
30.7
26.6

11.0
11.3
11.2

10.9
9.5
10.0

11.8
9.9
5.4

1.2
1.0
1.6

6.1
7.1
6.1

0.7
0.8
0.8

8.0
8.9
8.4

4.0
4.1
4.0

3.0
3.2
3.1

1.0
1.6
1.3

Thailand (Jan/Dec)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.
USA (Aug/Jul)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

(6.0)

(8.3)

Vietnam (Jan/Dec)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

1.4
1.9
2.2

28.0
28.1
27.9

0.2
0.3
0.2

29.5
30.3
30.3

21.3
21.8
21.9

6.4
6.3
6.5

1.9
2.2
2.0

39.7
37.6
31.4

167.9
165.6
161.0

1.3
1.4
1.3

208.8
204.5
193.7

136.6
138.7
140.0

34.7
34.5
32.7

37.6
31.4
21.0

(193.6)

(139.9)

(32.6)

36.0
36.2
36.3

34.9
35.2
35.3

0.0
0.0
0.0

(36.8)

(35.5)

Total 5 leading exporters b)

2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

(160.9)

Bangladesh (Jul/Jun)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

0.6
1.1
1.0

34.4
34.5
34.6
(35.0)

1.1
0.6
0.7
(0.8)

1.1
1.0
1.0
(1.3)

China (Jan/Dec)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

49.6
50.7
51.7

142.5
144.6
145.3

3.7
4.4
4.6

195.9
199.6
201.5

144.8
147.5
149.2

0.4
0.4
0.4

50.7
51.7
51.9

Indonesia (Jan/Dec)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

3.9
2.5
1.5

36.3
36.3
36.6

1.1
1.3
1.7

41.3
40.1
39.8

38.8
38.6
38.3

0.0
0.0
0.0

2.5
1.5
1.5

(40.4)

(38.9)

15.3
15.7
15.9

13.2
13.1
13.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

2.1
2.6
2.4

(37.5)

(1.5)

Philippines (Jul/Jun)
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

1.8
2.1
2.6

11.9
11.9
11.5

1.7
1.7
1.8
(1.6)

WORLD TOTAL
2013/14 est.
2014/15 f'cast
2015/16 proj.

113.3
111.6
106.6

477.7
478.3
473.6

(106.5)

(474.1)

43.2
42.1
41.5

(15.7)

591.0
589.9
580.2

479.5
483.4
486.3

(580.7)

(486.7)

IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.
a) Including seed and waste.
b) India, Pakistan, Thailand, United States, Vietnam.
Totals may not sum due to rounding.

(2.2)

Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate.

43.2
42.1
41.5

111.6
106.6
94.0

SUPPLY & DEMAND: SOYABEANS#

Million tons

Opening

Production

Imports

stocks

Total
supply

Use
Food

Feed

Exports
Crush

Total a)

Closing
stocks

SOYABEANS
Argentina (Apr/Mar)
2014/15
2015/16 est.
2016/17 f'cast

5.0
9.0
17.4

53.4
61.4
57.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

(17.8)

Brazil (Feb/Jan)
2014/15
2015/16 est.
2016/17 f'cast
USA (Sep/Aug)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

Canada (Sep/Aug)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
Ukraine (Sep/Aug)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

1.7
2.2
2.0

86.1
96.2
99.5

(3.9)

(99.0)

3.8
2.5
5.2

91.4
106.9
108.4

10.5
13.7
24.5

230.9
264.5
264.9

(26.8)

(261.8)

0.2
0.2
0.4

5.4
6.0
5.9

0.1
0.3
0.2

0.6
0.1
0.1

2.0
0.9
0.8

1.9
1.7
2.0

40.0
40.4
43.5

42.0
42.6
46.1

2.9
3.9
3.7

2.6
1.0
0.9

0.3
0.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0

7.4
10.5
11.5

9.0
17.4
16.8

(10.0)

(18.7)

88.4
98.5
101.6

0.0
0.1
0.1

2.6
2.9
3.3

37.8
40.8
42.4

40.5
44.0
46.0

45.7
52.5
54.7

2.2
2.0
0.9

(102.9)

(0.2)

(3.6)

(42.1)

(46.2)

(54.5)

(2.3)

97.2
110.3
114.3

0.0
0.0
0.0

2.2
3.7
3.4

47.9
50.9
51.5

50.1
54.6
55.0

44.6
50.5
46.7

2.5
5.2
12.7

(51.1)

(54.6)

(45.6)

(11.6)

(111.8)

(3.8)

244.1
279.2
290.3

0.0
0.1
0.1

6.7
8.3
8.7

125.7
132.0
137.4

132.6
141.1
147.0

97.8
113.5
112.9

13.7
24.5
30.4

(289.5)

(0.2)

(9.0)

(136.7)

(146.8)

(110.1)

(32.5)

5.8
6.6
6.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.3
0.3
0.4

2.0
1.8
1.8

2.4
2.3
2.2

3.2
3.9
4.0

0.2
0.4
0.3

(1.9)

(2.3)

(3.9)

1.4
1.3
1.5

1.5
1.5
1.6

1.3
2.4
2.2

(1.6)

(1.7)

3.0
4.1
4.0

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.1

(4.1)

0.3
0.2
0.1
(0.2)

Paraguay (Mar/Feb)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

0.7
0.4
0.3

8.3
8.5
8.8

0.0
0.0
0.0

9.0
9.0
9.1

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.1
0.2
0.2

3.6
3.8
3.9

3.7
4.1
4.2

4.9
4.6
4.6

0.4
0.3
0.3

China (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

11.8
12.0
13.0

12.0
12.2
11.0

70.8
79.0
81.0

94.5
103.1
105.0

10.7
10.5
11.1

1.6
2.6
2.3

69.5
76.4
79.9

82.4
90.0
93.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

12.0
13.0
11.0

(80.0)

(104.0)

(78.9)

(92.8)

1.2
1.9
2.1

13.6
13.8
14.0

15.3
16.7
17.4

13.3
14.3
15.0

14.3
15.2
16.0

0.1
0.1
0.1

1.0
1.4
1.3

(2.0)

(13.9)

(17.2)

(14.8)

(15.9)

EU* (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

0.5
1.0
1.4

0.1
0.1
0.2

0.8
0.8
0.9

India (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

0.7
0.7
0.4

11.9
10.5
10.5

0.0
0.0
0.0

12.5
11.2
10.9

0.4
0.3
0.3

0.9
0.7
0.6

10.4
9.7
9.6

11.7
10.6
10.5

0.2
0.2
0.2

0.7
0.4
0.2

Japan (Oct/Sep)
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

0.3
0.2
0.2

0.2
0.2
0.2

3.0
3.1
3.1

3.4
3.5
3.6

0.8
0.8
0.8

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.2
2.3
2.3

3.2
3.3
3.3

0.0
0.0
0.0

0.2
0.2
0.2

(3.0)

(3.4)

(2.2)

(3.2)

WORLD TOTAL
2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast
#

0.0
0.0
0.0

(74.8)

(105.8)

Total 3 major exporters b)

2013/14
2014/15 est.
2015/16 f'cast

58.4
70.4
74.4

28.4
32.0
44.8

284.8
321.1
321.0

c)
113.1
126.6
128.8

313.2
353.1
365.8

16.4
16.6
17.6

13.8
16.8
16.9

249.8
273.2
283.1

281.2
308.3
319.1

c)
113.1
126.6
128.8

32.0
44.8
46.7

(47.2)

(319.1)

(125.9)

(366.2)

(17.4)

(17.2)

(280.8)

(317.1)

(125.9)

(49.1)

IGC estimates. May differ from official estimates shown elsewhere in the report.
a)
Including seed and waste.
b)
Argentina, Brazil, USA
c)
IGC October/September trade
Totals may not sum due to rounding
Figures in brackets represent the previous estimate