COP21

: CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Paris, December 2015

By

Jean Faullimmel







Context

The United Nations conference on Climate Change, COP21, was held in Paris from
November 30 to December 12. The agreement reached by 195 countries, is not perfect.
In order to ensure all participants signed, constraints to reduce carbon emissions have
softened. It looks like an agreement without an agreement. Yet it shows progress
towards tackling the issue, and is a big step forward for humanity for greater
environmental awareness to switch from nonrenewable energy to renewable by the mid
century. The agreement marks the beginning of a great challenge: to stabilize Global
Warming at 2C, if possible at 1.5C. So far the average worldwide temperature has
increased by one degree centigrade since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution
around 1750, and it is still rising.

The agreement is not complete. There is much uncertainty as there is more than one
source of greenhouse gas emissions. The Paris agreement focuses only on reducing
greenhouse gases coming from fossil fuel energy emissions, that is, the use of coal, oil
and natural gas. But it does not take into account the natural release of carbon emissions
from biodegradation, the melting of permafrost in the Arctic and the decomposition of
methane hydrates on the oceans floor due to ocean warming. In addition to that,
population growth remains an issue. It shows no sign of abating, and the increase of
carbon dioxide emissions runs parallel with the increase of the world population.

A second aim of the COP21 was to find an alternative model of economic development.
The current neoliberal model is to be questioned as it leads the planet on a dangerous
survival path. In the past, civilizations have appeared and disappeared mainly to
destruction of their ecosystems. Humanity has become a geological force.


The current carbon emission situation

So far there is no plateau nor decline in carbon dioxide emissions despite what
politicians argue. Between 1959 and 2015, the Keeling curve from the Hawaii
monitoring station shows that the carbon emissions continue to grow (figure below).
The same trend is observed worldwide.



Currently, annual carbon emissions are around 40 billion metric tons. In 1960 the
emissions were around 9 billion metric tons. In 2008 they increased by 29% with
respect to 2000 and by 41% with respect to 1960. Of this, the total amount of emitted
carbon, around 30%, is absorbed by vegetation, 25% by the oceans, and the rest stays in
the atmosphere. The planets absorptive capacity is limited, as shown in the graph
below:

The blue curve represents the total amount of carbon emissions globally, and the red
curve indicates all the amount of carbon the planet can currently absorb. The difference
between the two in 2000 clearly demonstrate that the rest of greenhouses gases will
stay in the atmosphere and as a consequence increasing global warming. From 1750 to
2000 there was no Global Warmineffect yet as all carbon emissions were absorbed.


The impact of Climate Change

Global Warming leads to disruptions in the natural climatic cycles of the planet, leading
to Climate Change. So far the 1C increase since the Industrial Revolution has already
impacted the lives of many people around the world. In the last 20 years catastrophic
events such as floods, storms, drought, heat waves and landslides, have already cost the
lives of over 600,000 people around the world, mostly in countries of the Global South.

Amongst the most affected countries are: China, India, the Philippines, Bangladesh and
Thailand. Some parts of the world have become drier while others have become wetter.
In more extreme cases, for example in Bangladesh, rising sea levels have forced coastal
populations to move further inland. And in the United States alone, between 1970 and
2010, the temperature has increased by one degree farhenheit, the air humidity by 4%,
the heat-waves have increased by 31%, and extreme rainfalls by 7%.


The two-degree scenario

The core of the Paris Agreement is that the average world temperature should not
exceed 2C, and even target 1.5C. Two degree centigrade corresponds to carbon dioxide
concentration of 450 ppm (par per million). Over 800,000 years to this day, the average
concentration was below 380 ppm. In 2014 it reached 400 ppm. The question to be
addressed now is: how many decades will it take to reach 450 ppm? As illustrated in the
graph below, carbon emissions have not stabilized and continue to increase. There is not
yet any sign of a plateau or a downward slope in carbon concentration.

If the temperature increase is higher than 2C, more severe weather conditions are
expected making living conditions on Earth more and more difficult. There are several
scenarios possible as shown below:

The black curve represents the current situation as the carbon emissions continue to
increase. The aim of the COP21 is to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in
order to stabilize Global Warming. This is the great challenge humanity is confronted
with for the next 50 years. Perhaps the Paris agreement may help to achieve the new
policy scenario. But with regards to the two-degree scenario, this would require a
drastic drop in emissions, starting today and not in 20 years. Can this be achieved?

Currently there is a big difference in carbon emissions between post-industrial and
industrializing countries, as shown in the graph below. Up to 2004, the yearly carbon
dioxide emission per inhabitant in post-industrial countries was around 12 metric tons.
For the industrializing countries it was about 4 metric tons/year/inhabitant. The
average concentration worldwide is also 4 tons. However, in order to meet the 2-degree
scenario, the world should not emit more than 2 tons per inhabitant. This means that the
post-industrial countries must divide their emission by 6, and industrializing countries
by 2. This is the immense challenge the world is facing, as the required technologies and
necessary innovations are not yet ready to make this possible.

Additionally the COP21 recognized the importance of understanding that neither group
of countries was homogenous, and that flexibility will be required to ensure that all
countries can achieve their targets in context-and capacity-sensitive ways.


The incomplete Paris agreement

Regardless of the commitments and promises made in Paris, the agreement has flaws.
The global climate models upon which emission targets are based, suffer from scientific
uncertainties, concerning the net effect of clouds on global temperatures, for example. In
addition, global climate models are incomplete, for example, they do not account for the
carbon emissions coming from the melting of permafrost and methane hydrates
decomposition. And regional disparities in warming are harder to map in global climate
models.


Increasing Arctic temperature

A case in point is rising temperatures that are more pronounced in higher latitudes, such
as the Arctic region, where the permafrost in Siberia, northern Canada, Greenland and
Alaska has started to melt, releasing methane and carbon dioxide. It is estimated that the
amount of carbon trapped in the permafrost exceeds the amount of carbon in coal, oil
and gas still present underground.

The graph below illustrates the mean temperature worldwide. Scientists have observed
faster heating over the Northern Hemisphere than the global average, which can be
explained by the fact that water absorbs more heat than land areas and that a warm
ocean current reaches the Arctic. For example Russia heats up 2.5 times faster than the
world average. Here the average temperature increased by 0.42 C per decade between
1976 and 2014, while only by an average of 0.17 C for the rest of the world.

The melting of Greenlands ice sheet, Arctic ice and the Siberian permafrost has reduced
the amount of ice. Ice plays an important role in our planets absorptive capacity, as ice
cover has a strong albedo effect (reflecting potential of a surface): the light color of the
ice reflects more solar heat back into space. It has a cooling effect on the planet.
Currently the earth looses around 35000 km2 of ocean ice per year.

Melting ice caps not only reduces the amount of ice cover, which generates more water,
but also more land surface. When solar radiation reaches the Earth, it can be absorbed
by soil, ice and water. Land absorbs about 80% of the heat released by greenhouse gases,
the ocean absorbs about 90%, but ice only 10%. The rest of the heat goes back into
space. This indicates that a planet without ice will accelerate Global Warming. The figure
below illustrates the reflective effects of sun radiation on ice, soil and water:



Also, oceans contain large amounts of methane hydrate. This chemical is unstable at a
certain temperature threshold. Since about 90% of the heat released by the greenhouse
gases is absorbed by the oceans, the ocean temperature will continue to increase,
releasing methane coming from the decomposition of methane hydrate. And the
increase in ocean temperature also means that less carbon dioxide will be dissolved.

These two sources of carbon emissions add more uncertainty as to whether or not the
2C scenario can be achieved. So we can imagine how much natural carbon emissions,
over which man has no control, can be added to the ones generated by human activities.
These limitations suggest that the scenarios used in the Paris negotiations may be
insufficient.


Deforestation

A consequence of the current economic development model is also deforestation. Today
around 12 millions of hectares of woodland disappear every year. Forests stabilize the
climate and absorb carbon dioxide. In Borneo the rainforest is replaced by palm oil
plantations, and in Brazil it is soya cultivation and encroachment from cattle farming.
The disappearance of forests also means the extinction of wildlife that live in such
ecosystems. In the past, civilizations disappeared because societies tampered with
natural forces. The same is true today with the current neoliberal model.


Population Growth

Another issue that has not been discussed during the COP21, is the increase in world
population. Data show that the growth in carbon emissions is being driven by human
population growth. The graph below clearly indicates that when the world population
increases so do the carbon emissions. This adds additional uncertainty to the 2C target
set in Paris, and increases the prospect of increasing Global Warming and consequently
more extreme weather conditions.

The link between population growth and climate change is complex. If the current trend
continues, pressure on already fragile ecosystems and natural resources will remain a
long term issue, increasingly becoming a source of conflict between nations, further
destabilizing the global world order.

How to mitigate Climate Change?

The carbon dioxide emitted today will stay in the atmosphere for a very long time,
between 50 to 200 years, as the molecule is inert. This means that the effects of todays
emissions will persist for a long time, and in the short term, even if we begin to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions in the next 20 years, it will only have a small impact on
Climate Change. Also, we have not yet seen the full impact on climate change of the
carbon emitted so far. In the name of neo-liberalism, our society is invited to consume
and to discard. The world generates annually around 40 billion metric tons of solid
waste. Less waste means less treatment, less pollution, and less carbon emissions.

To reduce the carbon footprint of human activities technical innovations are numerous.
More emphasis should be put on research and development, a transition from nonrenewable to renewable energy, a change in human behavior from an economy
generating too much waste to a less wasteful society, a recycling economy and an
objective of zero waste. A carbon tax and more severe environmental legislation should
also be included. Mitigating climate change concerns all levels of society.


Conclusion

Economic growth in its current form cannot go on forever as natural resources are
limited. A larger world population means greater demands on these resources. The
more people, the faster this capital will diminish, leaving nothing for future generations.
Sooner or later we will be confronted by the need to find a balance between the
resources left and population growth. The current neoliberal economic model does not

comply to the concept of Sustainable Development. The model assumes an unlimited

growth potential against a backdrop of limited resources and ecological limits, a paradox
that is unsustainable as is already currently felt in many regions worldwide. The planet
lives on the capital of its natural resources, making the recovery of an environment that
took millions of years to form, perhaps impossible.

Regarding the 2.0C target, let alone the 1.5C one, the current analytical data do not add
up to support the targets set at the COP21. Whatever politicians say, the two degree
scenario is not realistic as there is too much uncertainty: today rainforests continue to
disappear, the ocean temperature continues to increase, sea ice and mountain ice caps
continue to melt. As more land and sea appears, the Earth will absorb more heat.

If we destroy our ecosystems and biodiversity, we destroy ourselves. Forests play a
determinant role in the survival of humanity, and therefore must be protected.

From the perspective of space the blue planet looks fragile, and political, cultural,
religious and geographical differences are insignificant. Only universal values can save
our planet. It must be protected for today and tomorrows generations. There is no
planet B to hop on to!


Sources of figures and graphs

1. Scripps CO2 program, data from the Mauna Loa Observatory.
2. Wikimedia Commons, Dragon flight.
3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
4. The Economist, International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook.
5. Climate Analysis Indicators Tool, World Resource Institute, 2008.
6. Think Progress, Climate.
7. New Internationalist Magazine, The Arctic Climate.
8. Climate Change Emergency Medical Response, State of the Climate, National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration, 2009.
9. NASA, Apollo 11, July 1969.





JF/06/012016