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Volume 74
Issue 5 July 1989
Article 12
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The first important question is whether volatility changes simply reflect changes in other markets. For example, is there a similar
pattern in exchange rate volatility, interest rate volatility, or commodity price volatility? While I do not have data that covers the
150-year period that Schwert collected, Figure 2 presents data from
1967 to 1987: Figure 2a shows the variability of the dollar relative
to foreign currencies (the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement in the early 1970s stands out clearly in this data); Figure 2b
shows what has happened to interest rates; Figure 2c displays the
variability in iron and steel prices; and Figure 2d shows volatility in
t Clarey Professor of Finance, William E. Simon Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Rochester, New York. The research was partially supported
by theJohn M. Olin Foundation, the Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation and the Managerial Economics Research Center at the Simon School. Research assistance was provided by Jonathan Glazer, John M. Olin Fellow at the Bradley Policy Research Center.
1
G. SCHWERT, WHY DOES STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY CHANGE
versity of Rochester Working Paper GPB 87-11, 1989).
ti
All Figures are contained in an appendix to this paper.
953
OVER TIME?
(Uni-
954
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CRASH
Studying data over a long period of time, as Schwert did, provides one way to understand volatility; looking at a shorter period in
much greater detail provides another. Because of its extreme volatility, many researchers have focused on the October 1987 market
crash as a way to understand volatility from a complementary perspective. For instance, it has been widely suggested that the operation of the financial futures markets in Chicago increased volatility
in the stock market. 5 The allegations usually focus on the role that
programmed trading, portfolio insurance and triple witching hours
2
Interestingly, oil price volatility has been relatively stable compared to fluctua-
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MARKET VOLATILITY
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G.
SCHWERT,
supra note 1.
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MARKET VOLATILITY
959
20
Brennan, A Theory of Price Limits in Futures Markets, 16J. FIN. EcON. 213 (1986).
[Vol. 74:953
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APPENDIX
0.19
0.18
0.17
0.16
0.15
0.14
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.1
O.09
0.08
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.04
0
03
0.02
0.01
19111111
1,
1161 11 . 0111 Ai I
9MlMInyll
1835 1848 1855 185
10
1935 1945 1956 1956 1975 1985
Fig. 1: Standard deviations of monthly stock returns, 1836-1987 from Schwert 1988.
1989]
MARKET VOLATILITY
Fig. 2a
Variability of 90 day US treasury bill yield
(Vertical axis: Proportionate scale)
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
is
72
74
78
'76
'79'21
'4'.'6
828 84' 8
Fig. 2b
Variability of weighted-average value of
US $ in terms of foreign currencies
(Vertical axis: Proportionate scale)
0.
Xj
9.M
6''70' '72"'74'
Fig. 2c
Variability ol iron and steel prices
(Vertical axis: Proportionate scale)
Fig. 2d
Variability of crude petroleum price
(Vertical axis: Proportionate scale)
0.!
0.0
-0.I
-8.2
-0
'7r '72
74 '1
78 '30
'32
'84
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0.22
0.2
0. 0.18
2
,
a
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02-
1985
Fig. 3:
1986
1987
Estimates of monthly S&P volatility based on last 20 daily returns from 1984 through 1987
1989
1982
Fig 4: Average daily trading volume on S&P 500 Index futures contracts
(in thousands)
1987