Professional Documents
Culture Documents
December 9, 2009
Renewable Energy Transmission Initiative
RETI is a statewide planning process
to identify transmission projects needed
to accommodate California’s renewable energy goals.
December 9, 2009 2
Solar in RETI
Large Scale – 150-200 MW, solar thermal or
solar PV. Detailed analysis.
Distributed Wholesale Generation – 20 MW
solar PV near substations. Very rough analysis.
Smaller Systems – Behind the meter
applications. Assumed to happen as part of
RETI “Net Short” calculation.
December 9, 2009 3
Example RETI Phase 1 Solar Projects
December 9, 2009 4
Solar PV Did Not Play a Significant
Role In RETI Phase 1 (2008)
Conventional tracking crystalline
technology too expensive to compete
Thin film technology deemed not fully
proven and commercially available
Thin film sensitivity showed potential for
large scale competitiveness – if costs
could be reduced ($3700/kWac)
December 9, 2009 5
CPUC 33% RPS Implementation
Analysis
CPUC commissioned 33% RPS Implementation Analysis as part of
long-term procurement planning (LTPP) proceeding
Goals of analysis:
Inform decision-makers about the likely cost and environmental impacts
of implementing a 33% Renewables Portfolio Standard by 2020
Identify barriers to implementing a 33% RPS by 2020 and most likely
timelines for achieving 33%
Inform decision-makers about the potential need for new transmission
and new resources to integrate intermittent renewables
Inform California utilities’ 2010 long-term procurement plans
Report with preliminary results issued June 2009, available at
www.cpuc.ca.gov/33percent
December 9, 2009 6
2007 Claimed RPS Resources for California
Utilities and 2020 RPS Resource Gaps
140
RPS Resource Gaps (TWh)
120
100
80
TWh
96
75
60
35
40
20
27 27 27 27
0
2007 RPS 20% RPS 33% RPS 40% RPS
Claims
Note: Gap based on 2007 CEC load forecast minus 2007 claims from CEC Net
System Power Report. No adjustments for EE or CHP that is incremental to forecast.
December 9, 2009 7
33% RPS Cases Studied
1. 20% RPS Reference Case: Existing state policy with 20% RPS
2. 33% RPS Reference Case: Most likely case for reaching 33%, assuming
that most contracts signed by IOUs with project developers proceed on
schedule
3. High Wind Case: Meets 33% RPS resource gap with mix of new resources
that includes substantial quantities of wind in California and Baja
4. Out-of-State Delivered Case: Meets 33% RPS resource gap with mix of
new resources that includes wind resources in California and Wyoming and
geothermal resources in Nevada
5. High DG case: Meets 33% RPS resource gap with mix of new resources
that minimizes the need for new bulk transmission. These include 15,000
MW of distributed solar PV.
December 9, 2009 8
33% RPS Reference Case
Cost and Rate Impacts in 2020
Total CA revenue requirement: Zones Selected
$54.2 billion (16.9¢/kWh) Total
MW
23,798
GWh
74,650
Notes
December 9, 2009 9
New Transmission Required for
33% RPS Reference Case
December 9, 2009 10
Interest in High DG Case
A number of factors drive the "If it is conservatively assumed that only
10,000 MW of new high voltage
CPUC’s interest in studying a “High transmission will be built by 2020 to realize
the RETI net short target of 68,000 GWh,
DG” case for meeting 33%: the estimated cost of this transmission will
be in the range of $20 billion in 2008
High environmental impact of new dollars based on SDG&E’s projections for
transmission the Sunrise Powerlink. How much thin-film
PV located at IOU substations or at the
High environmental impact of new point-of-use on commercial buildings or
parking lots could the IOUs purchase for
central station generation this same $20 billion? ... This equals an
installed thin-film PV capacity of 14,000 to
Increasing cost competitiveness 18,000 MW for a $20 billion investment."
and customer interest in PV – is PV Bill Powers, PE, testimony in SDG&E’s
nearing goal of “grid parity”? Sunrise Powerlink CPCN case
December 9, 2009 11
Resources Available for Selection
in High DG Case
Resources already selected for 20% Case
RETI projects that can likely be interconnected without major
transmission upgrades
Biomass: 2 projects in northern CA, 128 MW of total available capacity
Geothermal: 3 projects in northern CA, 175 MW of total available
capacity
Wind: 6 projects across CA, 468 MW of total available capacity
Out-of-state resources assumed deliverable over existing
transmission (~2000 MW)
Distributed solar PV resources
December 9, 2009 12
2. Identifying
Potential Solar PV
Sites
Overview
Solar PV was assumed to be a major
technology for DG
B&V estimated the technical raw potential
for DG
Satellite imagery for rooftops and
substation locations for larger utility scale
December 9, 2009 14
Distributed Solar PV
Illustrative Example of Distributed Solar PV
20 MW near substations
20 MW sites near non- Large commercial rooftops
urban 69 kV Residential rooftops
substations
Smaller projects on
rooftops, large
commercial rooftops
with 0.25 MW potential
Limited by 30% peak
load at a given
substation
December 9, 2009 15
Ground Mounted PV
Initial criteria
Example Map for Solar PV Non-Urban Projects
near sub stations equal or less
than 69 kV
agricultural or barren land
69 kV
substation
less than 5% slope
Environmental screen
Black out areas
Yellow out areas
Land parcel
a continuous 160 acre plot (20
Agricultural or barren land Substation
MWp)
Urban Solar PV plant
within 20 miles More than 5% slope area
December 9, 2009 16
RETI Results on 20 MW Sites
27,000 MW nameplate PV sites identified
~1300 sites identified
Filters Applied
160 acres + for 20 MW
No sites within 2 miles of urban zones
Near substations, most are 2 to 3 miles of
the distribution subs with 69kV+ high-side
voltage
Land slope < 5%
20 MW on substations with high side
voltage of 69kV
40 MW on substations with higher voltage
than 69kV
Assumed not to be Rule 21 compliant
December 9, 2009 17
Black and Veatch Rooftop Analysis
GIS used to identify large roofs in CA and count
available large roof area
Criteria
‘Urban’ areas with little available land
Flat roofs larger than ~1/3 acre
Assumes 65% usable space on roof
Within 3 miles of distribution substation
December 9, 2009 18
Solar Photovoltaic Rooftop Identification
December 9, 2009 19
Solar Rooftop Identification
December 9, 2009
July 31, 2009 20
Solar Rooftop Identification
December 9, 2009 21
Los Angeles Area “Rooftop Resources”
Ontario
Los Angeles
Puente Hills
Anaheim
December 9, 2009 22
East Bay Area Example
Analysis automates the
counting of roof space
and tallies total acreage
of large roof space.
Also checks proximity
to distribution
substation (not shown
due to confidentiality).
December 9, 2009 23
Summary Results for Large Roofs
Raw Potential – Assuming 100% Participation
December 9, 2009 24
3. DG Interconnection
Screening
Snuller Price, E3
Working Definitions of DG
Distributed generation (DG) is small-scale generation
interconnected at sub-transmission system or lower.
Broad definition includes generation that is not necessarily
physically close to loads.
December 9, 2009 26
Diagram of Interconnection Points
Direction of electricity flow
Reference
Point for
Costing
3 4 6
$D
-$F
Distribution $C Sub-Trans.
Network
4kV to Substation Substation Existing High Non-existing
21kV Transmission Transmission Renewable energy
Voltage
69kV to zone
230kV+ System 230kV+
138kV
$A
$B
Gen Step-up
2
Substation
RETI PV Projects Assumed
To flow in Opposite direction
-$E
Meter
5
1
December 9, 2009 27
Avoided Capacity Cost Assumption
Distribution: $34/kW-yr Issues
Used average of EE avoided Timeframe vs.
costs
geographic specificity –
Subtransmission: $34/kW-yr must use long time frame
Used average of EE avoided for avoided cost value
costs
Cost of non-Rule 21
Transmission: $0/kW-yr RETI 20MW PV
Network is more difficult Installations not studied
Set to zero for 33% RPS analysis Network transmission
costs of $65/kW-year
assumed for these
resources
See EE avoided costs, R.04-04-025
December 9, 2009 28
Utility Substation Bank Data
California IOU Distribution Bank Peak Loads
(Data Estimated from Utility Information)
100
80 7,500 MW of Potential DG
Peak Load (MW)
40
20
0
1 201 401 601 801 1001 1201 1401 1601
PG&E Urban PG&E Rural SCE Urban
SDG&E Urban SDG&E Rural Rule 21 Limit
100.0%
Hourly Loading (Peak Load = 100%, Max PV = 15%)
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
December 9, 2009 30
Technical Feasibility of PV Connections
that are >15% & <100% of Peak Load
Assumption on PV engineering feasibility
Engineering Feasibility as Function of Nameplate Capacity %
100%
90%
Caveat 1 15% Peak Load
2 1 50% of in area PV
Engineering Feasibility of Interconnection
80%
These numbers
are based on 70%
an educated 60%
30% Peak Load
guess not on 50%
2 50% of in area PV
any engineering 40%
0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
Nameplate Capacity of PV / Feeder Peak Load
December 9, 2009 31
PG&E Example – Bay Area
PG&E Urban Large Roof Potential
250 3,000
Clusters of large roofs
200
2,500 make it impossible to
Potential per Substation (MWac)
100
load.
1,000
50
500
- -
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101
Substation
December 9, 2009 32
PV Screening Criteria
Urban Small Roofs Assumed available 30% bank or feeder peak 33% Roofs max
Rural <20MW GIS Screening 30% bank or feeder peak 33% available land max
Not constrained, but
assigned interconnection
Rural >20MW GIS Screening cost of $68/kW-year 33% available land max
December 9, 2009 33
Total PV Availability for High DG
Case by Type and Utility
Installed Capacity by PV System Type (MWac)
Ground
Mounted (> Ground Large Small
Utility 30%) Mounted Roofs Roofs Total
PG&E 3,153 665 943 758 5,519
SCE 2,878 1,011 1,592 586 6,067
SDG&E 552 255 218 380 1,406
Other 2,417 335 1,057 500 4,309
Total 9,000 2,266 3,810 2,224 17,300
December 9, 2009 34
Other WDG Resources
Biogas/Biomass
Resource potential developed based on discussion
with stakeholders
Constrained by fuel availability
Total available capacity of 250 MW of Biogas, 35 MW
of distribution-connected Biomass
December 9, 2009 35
Statewide DG Potential by Type
Nameplate MW DG Type
Connection Biogas Biomass Geothermal Solar PV Wind Total
1. Customer Site - - - 2,224 - 2,224
2. Feeder 249 34 - 3,810 - 4,093
3. Distribution Bank - - - 2,267 - 2,267
4. Subtransmission - 128 175 9,000 468 9,771
Total 249 162 175 17,301 468 18,355
December 9, 2009 36
4. Results and Final
Thoughts
High DG Case Results
Case constructed to
Zones Selected
minimize the need for new MW GWh Notes
Total 26,761 74,650
transmission corridors Tehachapi 3,000 8,862 Included in Reference Case
Distributed CPUC 525 3,118 Included in Reference Case
Solano 1,000 3,197 Included in Reference Case
Start from 20% case Out-of-State Early
Imperial North
2,062
1,500
6,617
9,634
Included in Reference Case
Included in Reference Case
Riverside East 1,500 3,507 Included in Reference Case
December 9, 2009 38
New Transmission Required for
High DG Case
December 9, 2009 39
Cost Impacts of 33% RPS Cases
Incremental cost of 33% Ref. Case
in 2020:
+$3.6 billion relative to 20% RPS
Average retail rate: 16.9¢/kWh
7% increase relative to 20% RPS
Incremental cost of High DG Case in
2020:
+$3.8 billion relative to 33% Ref
Case
+$7.4 billion relative to 20% RPS
Average retail rate: 18.1¢/kWh
14.6% increase relative to 20% RPS
December 9, 2009 40
Solar PV Cost Reduction Sensitivity
Delivered PV costs have come down
substantially in the last year, and
further reductions can be expected as
the industry scales up
We conducted a sensitivity analysis by
reducing installed cost of PV from
$7/We to $3.70/We
Price point developed for RETI to be in
line with industry targets
Reduces levelized cost of PV from
$306/MWh to $168/MWh
High DG case is similar in cost to 33%
Reference Case
December 9, 2009 41
Final Thoughts and Next Steps
We were not able to eliminate all transmission lines – assumed lines
already approved go forward
Much additional work could be done to refine the distributed PV
potential estimates
All cases assume indefinite continuation of current federal
and state tax incentives
We did not do any analysis on California Summer Load
operations issues associated with Solar PV Output
high PV build
Ability of grid to absorb energy at
PV output profile
Voltage and grid stability issues
associated with lack of inertia
CAISO is now studying integration 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
requirements of all 33% cases Hour of the Day
December 9, 2009 42