McKinnis

Christopher McKinnis
Professor Malcolm Campbell
UWRT 1103
9 December11 November 2015
How Climate Change Will Soon Take Over Your Kitchen
We all love food, theres no denial in that. Whether its pasta or pizza, hamburgers or
hotdogs, cake or cookies, we all like to eat. Granted its a necessity to our survival as a species,
but why not enjoy it while we can, right? Well, what would happen if you couldnt eat your
favorite foods anymore? Global warming has that covered, for it is making a direct impact on
the global food supply and production. Although many anti-environmentalists deny its
existence, global warming is real and is affecting every aspect of how we live everyday.
Whether its the increase in global temperatures in the land and sea or the melting of the polar ice
caps in the Arctic, the signs point us in the wrong direction, and it keeps getting worse.
According to scientists from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change,
climate change has begun affecting crop and terrestrial food production on a global scale, with
projections claiming that, for example, wheat yield could decrease by two percent per decade
from this point further. In addition, with the continuous alterations in global precipitation
patterns and sea and land temperatures, food prices could possibly spike up by 3% to 84% by the
year 2050. Such a gap goes to show how much speculation about what may occur over the next
few decades, due to the fact the effects of climate change areis all dependent on our actions as a
global population. With the potential of possible global famine and increased international
tensions between global forces, this is an issue that has to be tackled as soon as possible.
Through, and through the thorough analysis of all aspects of the effects of climate change on
food production and security on a global scale, scientists and politicians can pinpoint a path that
can be taken in order to keep us as a society and species together.

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Climate Change: Where Its Going Now

Before I begin with the topic on climate changes effects on food production and security,
it is important to discuss what has caused this issue to escalate as much as it has over the past
few decades. Since 1861, the concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), and
nitrous oxide (N2O) in the troposphere haves risen sharply, especially since 1950. Current CO2
levels in the troposphere appear to be higher than they have been in at least 160,000 years,
having surpassed the health level of 350 ppm (parts per million) in 1988. Today,, and, to this
leveldate, is about to break 400 ppm.
In a recent article published by The Guardian, experts from the United Nations weather
agency have expressed an urgent concern dealing with the rising CO2 concentrations in the
atmosphere, predicting a historic milestone of 400 ppm, or parts per million, to be surpassed
sometime in the year 2016. With an increase of 43% in the CO2 levels from 1750 to 2014,
immediate action is necessary in order to cut down CO2 emissions, according to the secretary
general of the World Meteorological Society, Michel Jarraud. We cant see CO2. It is an
invisible threat, but a very real one. It means hotter global temperatures, more extreme weather
events like heatwaves and floods, melting ice, rising sea levels and increased acidity of the
oceans. This is happening now and we are moving into uncharted territory at a frightening
speed, states Jarraud (qtd in Vaughan).. Unfortunately, its not just CO2 thats affecting
climate change. With increased temperatures comes increased amounts of water vapor in the air
due to evaporation and transpiration. Water vapor, although most dont realize it, is also a
greenhouse gas, and also traps heat within the Earth, further heating the surface and continuing
the cycle (Vaughan).

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Effects on Food Production

Climate change impacts every aspect of how we live and go about our days everyday, and
most people dont realize that. Many believe that the ice that is melting in the Arctic or the rise
in the global temperatures have been happening since the beginning of time, and dont see the
rationale of starting to do something about it now when it has been occurring forever. However,
global land and sea temperatures have risen quite dramatically over the past few decades and are
already having immediate impacts on how countries and companies go about producing food and
food-based products. In an interview by the Washington Posts Roberto A. Ferdman, Nestl
S.A.s vice president and global head of operations Jos Lopez provides some interesting insight
on how climate change in its more recent and future years has and will affect the worlds largest
food company. When asked about how climate change is affecting Nestl behind the scenes, the
issue with increased prices for raw materials comes up, and how this ultimately affects farmers.
Farming has to become a different player in the eyes of the consumer, states Lopez. I am
convinced that consumers will accept and understand that food cannot be the place where you
save most of your moneythe place where you have to have a value understanding. We need to
educate everyone one about the real value of their purchasing activities (qtd. from Ferdman).
(Ferdman). The most important aspect to food production is access to raw materials;
without a consistent influx of raw ingredients, such as corn and soybeans (two of Nestls most
used crops),materials, food companies such as Nestl arent able to manufacture many of the
products that are known to us on a frequent enough basis to keep up with demand. In fact,
climate change has a direct effect on such raw materials and will continue to get worse as
climatic changes continue to occur. Crop yields and harvest quality are extremely sensitivble to

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major changes in their environment, especially extreme weather, such as hurricanes phenomena
and tornadoes,extremes and abnormalchanging precipitation and temperature rates on a global
scale. With such biophysical changes to global crop production, changes in food production and
food prices will also be triggered in order to compensate for the loss in crop production
(Hallegate). The impact of these changes ultimately reliesy on how farmers and countries adapt
to the changing climatic events, and with modern technology constantly evolving in order to
meet our needs and issues, this may eventually becomesomewhat of a feasible task. However,
there is still much work that needs to be done in order for this to begin getting resolved.
Impact on Farming: As mentioned in the interview with Mr. Lopez, farming also has
taken a massive hit recently due to the staggering effects of the current climatic change trends.
They are directly affected as weather patterns shift, and such changes alter crop yields and
production of crucial plants that feed a mast majority of the world population. One of the most
at-risk crops is wheat, which is one of the main staple crops in the world. According the Wheat
Initiative, a project launched by G20 agricultural ministers, wheat provides about 20% of daily
protein and calories. It notes, With a world population of 9 billion in 2050, wheat demand is
expected to increase by 60%. To meet the demand, annual wheat yield increases must grow from
the current level of below 1% to at least 1.6% (qtd. from Mooney).
Unfortunately, a new study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
dauntingly paints an unpleasant picture for the future of wheat. With current climatic trends, a
warming climate could drive the yields downward in not only the United States, but, possibly, all
over the world. According to Jesse Tack of the agricultural economies department of Mississippi
State University and two colleagues, The net effect of warming on yields is negativeeven
after accounting for the benefits of reduced exposure to freezing temperatures (qtd. from

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Rooney). This is no small matter, for wheat is the largest source of vegetable protein in lowincome countries (Mooney).
In a more local viewpoint, the study also compared the results of winter wheat trials
across Kansas with weather and precipitation data over a span of nearly 30 years. Kansas
produced wheat crop worth about $2.8 billion in 2013, but the study shows that this may no
longer be feasible. Winter wheat grows from September to May and faces two major
temperature-related threats during this cycle: extreme winter cold and extreme spring heat. As for
whether the Kansas-based research can be easily extrapolated to other regions where wheat is
grown around the world, that depends highly on the local climate, claims lead author Tack. As
long as the warming creates a situation where the temperatures in any given place more
frequently reach 34 degrees Celsius, or 92.3 degrees Fahrenheit, during the growing, the effects
could potentially harm wheat (Mooney).

Food Security and the Resulting Direct and Indirect Impacts from Climate Change
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, food security is defined as a
situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to
sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life. There are four aspects of food security that are necessary to discuss in
order to truly analyze the complete impact of climate change: availability, stability, access, and
utilization.
Availability: Food availability addresses the supply side of food security and is
determined by the level of food production, efficient water use, stock levels, and net trade.
ClimateAs was already mentioned, climate change affects agriculture and therefore food

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production in complex ways that are not easy to resolve. It directly impacts food production by
altering the agro-economical conditions necessary to produce food products and indirectly affects
the growth and distribution of incomes, ultimately leading to a demand for agricultural produce.
In addition, as already mentioned, the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and
decline in crop yields and land sustainability, when coupled with the increasing carbon dioxide
concentrations, and suitability limits the food production business. As; as a result, adaptation
utilizing available management procedures and crops as well as the incorporation of modern
technology to help improve crop and food production efficiency are key in order to protect the
availability of such important raw materials.
Stability: Another important factor that will influence the global food security is the
stability in reference toof the global climatic events and whether or not we can slow the negative
effects of such events to the point to where we can function more efficiently. Global and weather
conditions are expected to continue to change and become more variable than what they are
today. For example, increased temperatures and, consequently, increased supplies of
atmospheric water vapor will encourage the development of more destructive and frequent of
extreme events, including cyclones, hurricanes, floods and droughts. Through greater
fluctuations in crop yields and local food supplies and higher risks of landslides and floods,
which leads to erosion damage, they can unfavorably affect the stability of food supplies and
ultimately food security.
Utilization: Disease is a huge concern in regards to climate change and food security
especially when it comes to food utilization on a global scale, which may not seem to be the case
at first. However, climate change can also affect the ability of individuals to effectively utilize
food by altering the conditions for food safety and changing the disease pressure from vector,

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water, and food-borne diseases. The primary concern in regards to food security is the
possibility of a vicious circle where diseases can enhance global hunger, further putting
populations that may suffer atin more of a risk of attracting an infectious disease. This wouldnt
just affect food production and safety; this could potentially result in a decline in labor
productivity and an increase in poverty and mortality. In addition, with increased precipitation,
this will promote the development of water-borne diseases that can be easily spread through
insects such as mosquitos. Extreme rainfall events, along with this, will increase the amount of
flooding in areas that are environmentally degraded and where basic public infrastructure,
including hygiene and sanitation, are absent.
Access: World hunger has always been a lingering global issue for such a long period of
time. Although, and although as a global communityworld population we have improved quite
dramatically in increasingthe access toof food forto communities and families that are lacking
with such necessities, with the current and potential climatic trends, thisclimate change affecting
so many aspects of food production, access to food, and healthy food at that, will become much
more difficult. to distribute to areas within in developing countries and struggling communities
all over the world. Much of this will be of a result of an increase in food prices. Although many
studies projectpossess very different figures for their estimates on food prices in the future;
however, all of them have acknowledge an increase of some sort, depending on the product and
raw material. Rises in global food prices will make it much more difficult for people to gain
access to necessary foods in order to maintain a healthy lifestyle of fruits, vegetables, vitamins,
and many other crucial ingredients that affect our health. However, with the current trends, it is
quite difficult to give a specific estimate of whether or not world hunger and malnutrition will
continue to bebecome more or less of a problem (Schmidhuber).

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So Now What?
There are four main entry points for adaptation and risk reduction strategies targeting at
increased food security in view of climate change. One of the biggest steps towards solving such
a complex topic is to increase food availability. Another lies in strategies that ensure that those
who are at greatest risk of hunger can actually access and benefit from increased amounts food
and that protect the most vulnerable from the immediate impacts of climate change. In order
for this to happen, we must improve disaster risk management, enhance social protection
schemes, and strengthening resilient community-based development.
Adaptation Strategies: Local people are crucial in adapting agriculture and food systems
to meet their needs as climate conditions continue to be altered. With the need to increase
production due to an increase in the global population (thus increasing demand), the speed and
magnitude of the expected climatic changes pose new challenges that must be dealt with
immediately. Traditional coping mechanisms are no longer going to guarantee and ensure food
security and prevent effects on nutritional status. Therefore, they must be complemented by the
introduction of technical innovations and enabling frameworks, requiring more research towards
the breeding of new and adapted varieties of traditional crops, as well as maintaining a consistent
standard with the traditional crops, that can not only tolerate climate variability but are suitable
for changed climatic conditions.
In regards to technological innovations, it is crucial that they will be easily accessible and
affordable for all communities to be able to implement into their societies, whether or not they
are financially stable. Such strategies have to be supported by strong institutions and enabling
policy and legal frameworks. Incentives and services for rural producers will more likely

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encourage the involvement of such strategies in their local markets, which will potentially spread
to other markets as competition increases. Adaptation to climate change can incorporate a range
of successfully tested methods originating from sustainable agriculture and natural resource
management; however, this will involve considerable investments and changes in practices that
may take some time before beneficial results are evident. As a result of this, other responses
must complement with these strategies in order to address the immediate effects of climate
change (IASC Task Force on Climate Change).
Disaster Risk Management: With the United States being the hardest-hit nation from
disasters over the last twenty years at 472 events, there is much need to take even more
precaution into managing the risks that arise in light of natural disasters. A report published by
the United Nations outlines the numerical data found in relation to the frequency of weatherrelated disasters all across the globe over a span of the past 20 years. According to Margareta
Wahlstrm, the head of the U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), many of these
disasters are influence by the weather and climate; in fact, over the past 20 years, 90% of major
disasters have been caused by weather. Weather and climate are major drivers of disaster risk,
and this report demonstrates that the world is paying a high price in lives lost, states Wahlstrm.
Economic losses are a major development challenge for many of these least developed
countries battling climate change and poverty (qtd from Kostigen). As climate change leads
progressively towards increased extremes, such as storms, droughts, and high temperatures, the
challenge to the humanitarian community is not only to respond to the issue at hand, but to
also be much better prepared in light of such an extreme and manage the risk in a safe and
efficient manner. Recent approaches that integrate relief and response in long-term risk

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management have started to influence how such disaster management programs are planned and
financed (IASC Task Force on Climate Change).
In order for this to truly become a viable solution, the complex distinction between longterm risk reduction and short-term response needs to be established and understood by the mass,
while those who are most vulnerable to food insecurity must be protect as soon as possible from
the immediate effects of climate change. Planning the appropriate risk reduction and response
requires an understanding of risks and vulnerabilities in terms of areas who are at-risk, where
they are located, and an analysis of why they are in danger of food insecurity. With that in mind,
those people and communities who are vulnerable should always be the primary owners and
drivers of any actions aimed at increasing the resilience to disasters and is crucial that are
directly involved in the planning and implantation of any procedure and program in regards to
disaster risk reduction. Such action, however, should be linked and better integrated into
national development plans and strategies. Furthermore, sectoral organizations must be bridged
together in order to share timely and relevant information concerning risks and how they are
managed, providing up-to-date climatic information and making it accessible to vulnerable
communities and decision-makers (IASC Task Force on Climate Change).
Social Protection Schemes: With the global climate changing as vastly as it is, the
existing injustices in food security, food safety and nutrition are most certain to be distance even
more so than ever before, causing even more issues for those in vulnerable areas. Although
adapting food production systems could potentially increase the resilience of poor farmers to the
changing climate conditions, the vast majority of the undernourished people do not have
sufficient capacities and resources in order to be able to adapt to or at lease manage with the risks
posed by climate change. In order for this to be resolved, an urgent need of public support in the

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form of social protection schemes, safety nets and other supportive measures must be pushed
immediately. Without such public action, vicious cycles that lead into chronic poverty traps are
going to not only going to continue, but potentially worsen as changes in the global climate
continue to occur. For example, droughts possess numerous effects on families, especially those
who are dependent on the success of their farms and livestock. When droughts occur, the crops
and livestock die, leaving the family in a financial bind; this bind ultimately results in more
negative occurrences that further affect the family in more ways apart from their financial
situation, including a reduction in the familys food intake, number of meals, and the purchasing
of less expensive yet unhealthy foods. Access to formal social protection systems remains very
limited in developing countries. Currently, only 20% of the global population have easy access
such systems. Furthermore, effective targeting of the poorest and the most vulnerable people is
highly critical, ultimately depending on policymakers developing a sound understanding of these
vulnerabilities. In addition, apart from financial resources, which is quite obvious in this
situation, formulating social protection policies therefore demands a significant institutional
capacity which allows for international influences to assist in the development process (IASC
Task Force on Climate Change).
Resilient Community-Based Development: In regards to the occurrence of natural
disasters, it is highly important to enable conditions to ensure that communities affected by
disasters are able to build back systems which are more suitable and well-adapted for changing
climate conditions. Such a climate-smart relief, rehabilitation, and development is crucial in
the improvement of the livelihoods of low-income farmers and rural people, which ultimately
increase their overall resilience to future disasters and negative effects from changing climate
conditions. Achieving resilient communities, which requires that people must increase material

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welfare and reduce their risk from negative natural occurrences, is bound up with people who are
attaining greater capacity to determine their own destiny. There are three factors that are crucial
in the development of resilient communities: (1) the prospect of major new investment flows
focused on previously neglected lands, (2) incentivizing farmers through investments in agroecological practices and in providing environmental services, and (3) the incorporation of the
local community involved in policy making and the implantation of such policies and programs.
Such investments that are going toward supporting community development in view of food
security must be properly executed and unified in order to ensure the best results possible (IASC
Task Force on Climate Change).

Conclusion
Our current situation is not good, at all. There is so much that we are putting on the line
due to our carelessness over the past few hundred years. However, now we can no longer point
fingers. We must take action in order to reverse, or at least slow down, the effects of our
mistakes to not only protect the environment, but to also save our species from extinction. Food
defines who we are as people; it is what keeps us going on a bad day or prevents us from nearly
come face-to-face to the reaper. We must take charge now, because this is our home and we must
protect it in order to protect ourselves.

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Works Cited
Ferdman, Roberto A. How Climate Change is Affecting the Worlds Biggest Food Company.
The Washington Post. The Washington Post. 5 September 2014. Web. 17 October 2015.
Gilbert, Natasha. "One-third of Our Greenhouse Gas Emissions Come from
Agriculture." Nature.com. Nature Publishing Group, 31 Oct. 2012. Web. 10 Nov. 2015.
Hallegatte, Stephane, et al. Shock Waves: Managing the Effects of Climate Change on Poverty.
Washington, DC: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World
Bank, 2016. The World Bank Open Knowledge Repository. Nd. Web. 10 November 2015.
IASC Task Force on Climate Change. "Climate Change Adaptation Must Prioritize Food
Security." Adaptation and Climate Change. Ed. Roman Espejo. Detroit: Greenhaven
Press, 2013. At Issue. Rpt. from "Climate Change, Food Insecurity, and Hunger." Vol. 1.
2009. Opposing Viewpoints in Context. Web. 6 Dec. 2015.
Kostigen, Thomas M. "U.S. Hardest-hit Nation for Weather-related Disasters." USA Today. USA
Today, 28 Nov. 2015. Web. 04 Dec. 2015.
Mooney, Chris. "Troubling New Research Says Global Warming Will Cut Wheat
Yields." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 11 May 2015. Web. 04 Dec. 2015.
Schmidhuber, Josef and Francesco N. Tubiello. Global food security under climate change.
PNAS 104.50 (2007): 19703-19708. Web. 09 Nov. 2015.
Vaughan, Adam. "Earth's Climate Entering New 'Permanent Reality' as CO2 Hits New
High." The Guardian. Guardian News and Media Limited, 9 Nov. 2015. Web. 10 Nov.
2015.