6

26 ..2558

Factors Affecting Imports of Hot-rolled Steel from Japan
*

**

.
Panitnun Waenpetch and Dr.Bhisanuwat Thaweewat

1 .. 2545 4 .. 2557
72.08 (HS : 72.08)

,
0.01, 0.05, 0.1
0.1
-

, ,
0.01, 0.1
: , , , ,

Abstract
This study aimed for the study of Factors Affecting Imports of Hot-rolled Steel from Japan to
Thailand. The quarter secondary data was collected from 1/2545 to 4/2557 based on Harmonized system
on 72.08 (HS: 72.08). The study applied the simulate model which was analyzed by Two Stage Least
Square. The Factors affecting to imports of Hot-rolled Steel from Japan to Thailand was positive related
to Production of the vehicles, the average local price and the average price in Japan at statistical
*

**

[192]

significance level of 0.01, 0.05, 0.1, respectively. However Manufacturing Production Index of Hot-rolled
Steel was negatively related at a statistical significance level of 0.1. For the free trade agreement Thailand
- Japan wasnt related to imports of Hot-rolled Steel from Japan to Thailand. For the second model. The
factors affecting to production of the vehicles was positive related to gross domestic product, the average
price of Dubai crude, the first car policy and whole sales vehicles in Thailand at a statistical significance
level of 0.01, 0.1, respectively.
Keyword: Factors, Import, Hot-Rolled Steel, Japan, Affect

3
(, 2557)





(, 2543) 2557
5 416,135.1
(, 2558)
4,062 66.47
660 10.8 (, 2558)


(
1) 2557 2,522,000
4,041,000
(, 2558)

[193]

 1 2553 - 2557
: (2558)

1.

2.

1 .. 2545
4 .. 2557 72.08 52
, , ,



2
1:
ln(Qtyt) = 0 + 1ln(PROCt) + 2 ln(MPIHRt) + 3ln(PIt-1) + 4ln(PLt) + 5(JTEPAt) + 1
2:
[194]

ln(PROCt) = 6 + 7ln(WSVt-1) + 8ln(GDPRt) + 9ln(Ot) + 10(FCt) + 2

Qty (: )
PROC (: )
MPIHR (: ) (
2543)
PI
(: )
PL
(: )
JTEPA - (JTEPA)
0 = - ( 1 2545 3 2550)
1 = - ( 4 2550 4 2557)
WSV ( : )
GDPR ( : )
O
(: )
FC

0 = ( 1 2545 2 2554
1 2556 4 2557)
1 = ( 3 2554 4 2555)

(Error term)

1:
ln( t)
=
4.347028 + 1.191290 ln(PROCt) 0.455989 ln(MPIHRt) + 0.630258 ln(PIt-1)
(1.441820) (2.945460)*** (-1.945035)** (1.946832)**
+ 0.567249 ln(PL t) 0.187563 JTEPA t
(1.744325)* (-1.382333)
2:
[195]

ln(

t)

-16.88637 + 0.071197 ln(WSVt-1) + 1.38969 ln(GDPRt)

(-3.030460)*** (1.705736)*
(3.687409)***
+ 0.576948 ln(Ot) + 0.069663 FCt
(4.564920)*** (2.492809)***

* 0.1
** 0.05
*** 0.01
(Two-stage Least
Squared Regression)

,
0.01, 0.05, 0.1
0.05
- (JTEPA)

, ,
0.01, 0.1

0.01
, 0.05
0.10
1.
(2556)
1
1.320540
2.



1
0.985492
3.
(2545)

[196]

 1
0.985492
4.
0.10
1
0.003410 (2556)
5. - (JTEPA)
( , 2550)

1.
0.01 1
1.396793

2.
0.01
1
0.575631
3.
0.069676

4.
0.1 1
0.071478

[197]

. 2558. - (Online). http://internet1.customs.go.th, 20 2557.

. 2558. 10 (Online). www2.ops3.moc.go.th, 14 2558.
. 2550. - (JTEPA).
33 (2): 23-39.
. 2545. .
, .
. 2549. .
, .
. 2556. .
, .
. 2546. I I : . 3. :
.
. .
__________. 2557. 2013 (Online).
www.isit.or.th/uploads/article/67-file.pdf., 20 2557.

[198]