6

26 ..2558

Factor Affecting Gold Import and Export of Thailand
.
Nuchjarin Kaothanthong and Dr.Pat Pattanarangsun

2548 2557

, 0.05, 0.05
0.10
0.10
0.05 ,
0.10

: , ,

Abstract
This study aimed to find out factors affecting gold import and export of Thailand. The monthly
secondary data was collected from January 2005 to September 2014. The study applied the
simultaneous-equation model was analyzed by Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS). The result of the first one
that the gold import was positively related to core inflation, gold futures at a statistical significance level
of 0.05 and manufacture production index at a statistical significance level of 0.10. However, the foreign
exchange rate (T-1) was negatively related at a statistical significance level of 0.10 The second one that
the gold export was positive related to gold spot at a statistical significance level of 0.05. However, policy

; E-mail: augui007@gmail.com
; E-mail: feconppt@src.ku.ac.th

[183]

interest rate, manufacture production index and gold futures were negatively related at a statistical
significance level of 0.10.
Key Word: Gold, Import, Export

4
58, 22, 10
10 (World Gold Council, 2014)
2 71 29
(World Gold Council, 2014)
2
4.5 140.1
136.6 3.5

.. 2545
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.. 2545 2550
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: (2556)

: (2556)
[184]

 ( 3)
2554
274,738.6 49,240.61

3
: (2556)

. (2542)

(GDP)
Bapna (2012)
Sindhu (2013)

Bapna Sindhu


(2546)


(2549) 1999 2005


(2555)
[185]



, ,
, ,
3



2 (Dummy)

() () (Gold Futures)

2548
2557 142
, ,

(Simultaneous
Equation Model) (Two-Stage
Least Squares)
[186]


2
1. Log-Lin
2. Log-Lin

Export

Import

Spott

()

Baht (T-1)
BOTt

(%)

CINt

(%)

Gfuture

MPIt

0 =
1 =
()

DJIAt
QE

SETt

()
0 =
1 =
()

1
(2.041421) (0.224530) (-1.877660) (-0.899278)
(-0.899278) (-1.698085) (-1.872720)

(-1.158625) (-0.134162)
R-squared 0.445570, F-statistic 10.46179 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0000

[187]

 2
(6.016928) (-1.454566) (-1.676269) (1.893825)
(2.480211) (1.588864) (2.267297)
(0.543574)
R-squared 0.449863, F-statistic 12.99948 Prob(F-statistic) 0.0000

1) t-statistic
2) * 0.05
3) ** 0.10
4) Classical
Linear Regression Model (CLRM) (Heteroscedasticity)
(AutoCorrelation)

2548 2557
(2SLS)
0.05
,
0.10
,
0.05, 0.05 0.10
(T-1)
0.10
,

0.05 ,
0.10 ,
, 0.005164, -0.014776, 0.679986 -2.917849
1. 1
0.5164

[188]

2. 1 1.4776
. (2542) 2540
2541

3. 94.61
96.5%
43,700 1 (1
50 )

4. 1 67.9986

44.56 (R-square =
0.44557) overall significant ( F-stat =10.46179)
0.05
,
0.05
0.1
0.1
, ,
0.662343, 1.827489, 0.011217 -0.160943

1. 1 66.2343
(2546)

2. 5.2183 2

1

[189]

1. 1 1.1217
. (2542)

2. (T-1) 1
16.0943

(2555)


44.9863 (R-square =
0.449863) overall significant ( F-stat = 12.99948)
0.05

(T-1)


1.

2. .. 2551




[190]

1.
(Trend), (Cyclical), (Seasonal) (Irregular)

2.

. 2557. (Online). www.ops3.moc.go.th/thtrade/., 18 2557.

__________. 2557. (Online). www.ops3.moc.go.th/thtrade/., 18 2557.
__________. 2557. (Online). www.ops3.moc.go.th/thtrade/., 18
2557.
. 2544. .
.
. 2549.
1999 2005. , .
. 2546. .
,
. 2555.
. , .
Bapna,I. 2012. Dynamics of macroeconomic variables affecting price innovation in gold: A relationship
analysis. Pacific Business Review International 5 (1): 1-10.
Sindhu. 2013. A study on impact of select factors on the price of gold. IOSR Journal of Business and
Management 8 (4): 84-93.
World Gold Council. 2014. Gold Demand Trends Second Quarter 2014.
__________. 2013. The Direct Economic Impact of Gold.

[191]