6

26 ..2558

Factors Affecting Import Demand of Wire Rod from Peoples Republic of China
*

**

***

, . .
Ketkan Phopin, Dr.Jeerasak Pongpisanupichit and Dr.Pat Pattanarangsun

1)
2)
2

1 ..2547 4 ..2557 44
0.05 ,

0.05 0.10
0.05


0.05
: ,

; E-mail: p.ketkan@gmail.com

***

**

[163]

Abstract
This study were to 1) analyze stature of steel industrial, analysis value of import Wire Rod, domestic
production, trend price and study factors affect to import Wire Rod 2) investigate factors affecting import
demand of wire rod from Peoples Republic of China. The secondary data was collected from journal,
electronic pubic data for descriptive and quantitative analyses. Quarterly data from Q1/2004 to Q4/2014 was
used to estimate regression model which was analyzed by Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS). This results
showed that factors determining import amount of Wire Rod from China at a significance level of 0.05 are
import price, anti-dumping policy and value of land and building which were significantly explained by new
register home in Bangkok and GDP at a significance level of 0.05 and 0.10 respectively. In addition, factors
affecting import amount of Alloy-Wire Rod at a significance level of 0.05 are exchange rate, price of non-alloy
Wire Rod, price of alloy Wire Rod and car production. According to derived demand perspective, car
production could be further explained by sale volume of cars and GDP at a significance level of 0.05.
Keyword: Wire Rod, Demand

50%
(
, 2556)

(, 2557) ..2557
..2558

..2558

[164]

2 3
1

2 HS-7213 HS-7227
2




(SCB SME, 2556)

1
2

HS 7213
HS 7227

[165]

 4 HS-7213 5 HS-7227
HS-7227

HS-7213
HS-7227

..2556

6 HS-7213 HS-7227

3

2


2

[166]


1.

2.

1 ..2547 4 ..2557
44 HS-7213 HS-7227



(Two-Stage Least Squares)

(Two-Stage Least Squares)
(Simultaneous Equation Model)

Double log form
1. Double log
In(ImportQ)
=
0 + 1ln(ImpriceQ)t + 2ln(Land_home)t + 3(Dummy1) + 1
2. Double log
In(Land_home) =
0 + 1ln(Newregis_home) t + 2ln(GDP)t + 2
3. Double log
In(ImprotQs) =
0 + 1ln(ImPriceQs)t + 2ln(Procar)t + 3ln(Exchrate)t + 4ln(ImpriceQ)t + 3
4. Double log
In(Procar)
=
0 + 1ln(Salecar)t + 2ln(GDP)t + 4
[167]


ImportQ ()
ImportQs ()
ImpriceQ ()
ImPriceQs ()
Land_home ()
Newregis_home ()
GDP ()
Procar ()
Exchrate ( 1 )
Salecar ()
Dummy1

0
1

1
=

-5.900029ln(imprice)t-3 + 3.123928ln(land_home)t+2 - 3.135459(dummy1)

(-3.931816)*
(1.742881)*
(-3.223361)*
2
R
=
0.775918
2
Adjusted R
=
0.776040
Prob(F-statistic) =
0.000000

2
=

0.2690963ln(Newregis_home) t + 0.486657ln(GDP)t
(3.227330)*
(2.525654)**
2
R
=
0.591758
2
Adjusted R
=
0.560355
Prob(F-statistic) =
0.000000
[168]

 3
=

(-205.1378) - 1588358ln(ImpriceQs)t + 7.950344ln(Procar)t+1 +23.09126ln(Exchrate) t

(-4.9447575)* (-5.775368)*
(2.311050)*
(3.728454)*
+ 8.586645ln(ImpriceQ)t
(3.456674)*
2
R
=
0.668356
2
Adjusted R
=
0.614865
Prob(F-statistic) =
0.000000

4
=

(-)39.05601 + 0.5898766ln(Salecar)t + 2.88513ln(GDP)t

(-3.430598)* (3.811106)*
(3.632056)*
2
R
=
0.785246
2
Adjusted R
=
0.768727
Prob(F-statistic) =
0.000000
1) t-statistic
2) Multicollinearity ,Hetreoscedddddasticity AutoCorrelation
3) * 0.05
4) * * 0.10

1/2547 4/2557 (2SLS)
0.05 ,,


0.05 0.10
,
, 1 , 0.05
0.05

[169]

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2 0.05
0.05
0.10
1. 3
5.90
1 5.90

2. 2
3.12
1 3.12
3.
0.05
96
4.
0.05
0.27 1 0.27
5. 0.10
0.49
1 0.49
,

0.05
1.

1.59 1 1.59

2.
7.95
1 7.95

[170]

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23.09
1 23.09
4.

8.59 1 8.59

5.
0.58 1
0.58
6.
2.89
1 2.89

2


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. 2556. . (Online). http://www.sme.go.th/. 30 ..2558.
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. 2557. (Online). http://strategy.dip.go.th/,14 ..2558.
. 2557. (Online). http://www.isit.or.th/,19 ..
2557.
. 2553. (Online). http://btir.dft.go.th/, 5 ..
2558

[173]