Professional Documents
Culture Documents
December, 2015
FIBRIA APP WITH THIS PRESENTATION IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT APPLE STORE AND GOOGLE PLAY.
Disclaimer
1
2 Pulp and Paper Market
3 Financial and Operational Highlights
4
Company Overview
Final Remarks
Agenda
Company Overview
4
A Winning Player
Superior Asset Combination
Belmonte
Veracel
Caravelas
Portocel
Aracruz
Pulp capacity
million tons
5.300
Net revenues
R$ billion
9.097
thousand hectares
967
Planted area(1)
thousand hectares
539
R$ billion
9.578
1.58
Net Debt
Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars)(2)
Trs Lagoas
Jacare
Santos
Port Terminal
Pulp Unit
Source: Fibria
(1) Including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas and forest bases linked to the sales of Losango and forest assets in Southern Bahia State.
(2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars.
* Veracel is a joint venture between Fibria (50%) and Stora Enso (50%) and the total capacity is 1,120 thousand ton/year
Highlights
Region - 3Q15
N.
America
25%
Tissue
50%
Europe
42%
Printing &
Writing
36%
Asia
25%
Specialties
LatAm
8%
14%
Worldwide presence
Long-term relationships
9%
9%
8%
29%
21%
20% 22% 25%
25% 26% 26% 27% 24% 23% 26% 26% 25%
26%
26% 26%
18%
10%
9%
10%
30% 22%
8%
9%
29%
8%
31% 31%
10%
9%
9%
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
Europe
North America
Asia
Other
Mutual value creation, with better servicing for both Companies customers base
8
Votorantim
Industrial S.A. (1)
BNDES
Participaes (1)
Free
Float (2)
29.42%
29.08%
41.50%
General
Meeting
Fiscal
Council
Board of
Directors
Finance
Committee
Statutory
Audit
Committee
Personnel
and
Remuneratio
n Committee
Sustainability
Committee
Innovation
Committee
30%
independent
members
100%
independent
members
50%
independent
members
45%
independent
members
Policies approved
by the Board of Directors:
members
20% independent
members
Role of CEO and
chairman is split
10
750
Portucel Cacia
30
85
Sappi Cloquet
April Rizhao
Ence Huelva
Possible closures*
Net
BEKP demand growth**
500
200
Eldorado
200
Eldorado
265
CMPC Guaiba II
750
CMPC Guaiba II
750
265
Oji Nantong
400
Suzano Maranho
400
Portucel Cacia
30
40
40
Ence Navia
115
115
Sappi Cloquet
-65
April Rizhao
-315
Ence Huelva
-400 to -800
Unexpected Downtimes
1,415 to 1,815
1095
-190
-315
-385
Indonesia, China,
Uruguay and Brazil
Net
1450
1500
12
808*
783*
781
750
738
735
726
721
709
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
Annual 2015
13
750
Portucel Cacia
30
85
Sappi Cloquet
April Rizhao
Ence Huelva
Possible closures*
Net
BEKP demand growth**
500
200
Eldorado
200
Eldorado
265
CMPC Guaiba II
750
CMPC Guaiba II
750
265
Oji Nantong
400
Suzano Maranho
400
Portucel Cacia
30
40
40
Ence Navia
115
115
Sappi Cloquet
-65
April Rizhao
-315
Ence Huelva
-400 to -800
Unexpected Downtimes
1,415 to 1,815
1095
-190
-315
-385
Indonesia, China,
Uruguay and Brazil
Net
1450
1500
14
1.200
6.8%
8.6%
1.000
800
21.7%
19.2%
600
400
3.6%
200
-2.4%
5.9%
5.0%
6.9%
5.8%
-200
Global
NA
WE
BHKP
China
BEKP
15
7,7 7,7
3,6
3,4 3,3 3,4
3,1
0,9
6,8
6,3
2,8
2,4 2,6
2,2
1,5 1,6
7,3
1,5
-0,3
-0,8
World
Euro Area
2012
USA
2013
2014
2015
China
2016
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015
16
7,7 7,7
3,6
3,4 3,3 3,4
3,1
0,9
6,8
6,3
2,8
2,4 2,6
2,2
1,5 1,6
7,3
1,5
-0,3
-0,8
World
Euro Area
2012
USA
2013
2014
2015
China
2016
Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015
17
400
6.0%
3.3%
3.7%
5.0%
200
0
-0.3%
-0.8%
-0.8%
-0.6%
-200
2012
2013
2014
BHKP
YTD 2015*
BEKP
18
Altri Celbi
Woodland
Altri Celbi
30
-40
-90
-55
Verso Wickliffe
APRIL Kerinci
-120
APRIL Kerinci
Possible closures*
385 to 985
Net
BEKP demand growth**
930
1500
-40
-90
-55
-400 to -800
30
Woodland
Verso Wickliffe
Possible closures*
660
Klabin
660
Klabin
800
CMPC Guaiba II
800
CMPC Guaiba II
Net
BEKP demand growth**
-120
-200
985
1500
11%
1,734 kt
8%
20%
6%
5%
717 kt
386 kt
1,176 kt
13%
19%
537 kt
6%
80 kt
92 kt
Total
(1)
North
America
Western
Europe
China
Others
Total
(2)
North
America
5%
247 kt
593 kt
Western
Europe
5%
186 kt
China
Others
2015
Total
FORECAST
REALIZED
PREVIOUS
FORECAST
LATEST
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
LATEST
Woodfree
256
256
760
760
1,016
1,016
Tissue
1,390
1,278
727
1,365
2,117
2,643
Cartonboard
2,100
1,326
380
730
2,480
2,056
Total
3,746
2,860
1,867
2,855
5,613
5,715
20
250
203
200
150
100
76
50
China GDP
Eucalyptus Shipments
21
Commodities Differentiation
China GDP breakdown
8%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
44%
47%
48%
48%
48%
48%
48%
46%
47%
45%
45%
49%
49%
48%
49%
49%
50%
50%
52%
51%
53%
53%
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
Consumption
Investment
Net Exports
Soybeans
Wheat
Crude oil
Iron ore
Sugar
BHKP
248
201
194
172
152
124
115
100
2008A
2009A
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013A
2014A
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
22
3.000
Weighted average
technical age 12.3 years
STRONG
2.500
STRONG
2.500
Aracruz
2.000
1.500
2.000
Weighted average
capacity 1,277,000 t/a
Trs Lagoas
1.500
Jacare
1.000
Veracel
1.000
Weighted average
capacity 527,000 t/a
Ence
Huelva
500
500
Old
Town
30
WEAK
20
10
0
30
WEAK
25
Closures
20
15
10
Technical Age, years
Grade Switch
On & Off
More than 7.7 million tons of capacity above 25 years and with annual capacity below 500,000 t/y.
23
-105
-540
-445
-500
-750
-910
-1,085
-1,180
-1,260
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015-2017 E
(1)
As of April 2015
24
1.000
Horizonte II
900
1,6
Rizhao
Maranho
Trs
Lagoas
700
APP
Hainan
600
500
400
Santa F
1,4
Montes
del Plata Guaba II
Eldorado
Fray
Bentos
Mucuri
Veracel Nueva Aldea
Valdivia
1,8
1,2
Klabin
1,0
Chenming
Zhanjiang
Kerinci
PL3
800
2,0
0,8
APP Guangxi
300
0,6
Oji
Nantong
200
0,4
100
0,2
0,0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
(1) Source: Hawkins Wright , Poyry and Fibria Analysis. Pulp price estimates according to Hawkins Wright (July/15), Brian McClay (Sept./15) and RISI (May/15)
(2) Partially integrated production.
25
160
120
80
40
Oct-15
May-15
Dec-14
Jul-14
Feb-14
Sep-13
Apr-13
Nov-12
Jun-12
Jan-12
Aug-11
Mar-11
Oct-10
May-10
Dec-09
Jul-09
Feb-09
Sep-08
Apr-08
Nov-07
Jan-07
Jun-07
Aug-06
Mar-06
Oct-05
May-05
Dec-04
Jul-04
Feb-04
Sep-03
Apr-03
Nov-02
Jun-02
Jan-02
Aug-01
Mar-01
Oct-00
May-00
Dec-99
123
Nov-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
Dec-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jan-14
Sugar
Feb-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Dec-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Jul-13
Crude Oil
Aug-13
Jun-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jan-13
Soy Bean
Feb-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Dec-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Jul-12
Iron Ore
Aug-12
Jun-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jan-12
73
64
Feb-12
Mar-12
230
220
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
44
32
27
35%
34%
27%
26%
24%
24%
24%
16%
14%
6%
WTI
Crude Oil
Sugar
Nickel
Copper
Soy
Iron Ore
LME
Ibovespa
Metals
Cattle
FX
FOEX PIX
BHKP
Since 2009
28
Exchange Rate
Average (R$/US$)
2.00
1.76
670
1.67
1.95
639
581
2.16
610
2.35
572
3.01
573
584
(2)
456
1,179
912
1,133
1,067
1,311
1,344
1,725
51%
EBITDA Margin
3.39(3)
40%
29%
34%
36%
40%
1,980
56%
39%
4,620
2,526
1,522
1,964
2,253
2,796
2,791
1,551
2009(1)
2010(1)
2011
2012
2013
2014
LTM 3Q15
3Q15
(1) Excludes Conpacel | (2) 2015 market consensus | (3) According to Focus Report (Brazilian Central Bank November 20, 2015)
30
303
221
-126
57
157
167
234
248
122
117
263
373 344
-12
-408
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
EBITDA Margin
39%
34%
33%
28%
30%
37%
37%
41%
39%
39%
41%
42%
41%
35%
35%
45%
50%
50%
56%
1.63
1.80
1.77
1.96
2.03
2.06
2.00
2.07
2.29
2.27
2.37
2.23
2.27
2.55
2.87
3.07
3.54
Average FX
1.67
1.60
31
4,620
(1,556)
Adjusted
EBITDA
(1)
(2)
(3)
Capex
(ex-H2 project)
( 345 )
Net Interest
2,297
(374)
( 71 )
23
Working
Capital
Taxes
Others
2,150
( 147 )
FCF
(ex-H2 project)
Capex H2
FCF
32
31.7%
29.4%
17.8%
4.4%
7.1%
17.7%
6.8%
5.4%
Average
FX
(1)
(2)
(3)
2012
1.67
2013
1.95
2014
2.16
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2011
9.1%
LTM 3Q15
2.35
Annualized
3Q15
2011
3.54
Average
FX
3.01
2012
1.67
2013
1.95
2014
2.16
LTM 3Q15
2.35
Annualized
3Q15
3.01
3.54
33
697
34
502
41
3Q14
Inflation
42
FX
16
Lower energy
price
659
(38)
(51)
45
Maintenance
downtimes
Non recurring
wood
608
Non recurring
input
consumption
Non recurring
fixed costs
Total
Management
initiatives
Cash cost
3Q15
Total non
recurring
3Q15 recurring
cash cost
34
Cash Production Cost saw a annual increase of 4.7% over the past
6 years
Fibria Cash Production Cost (1) (R$/ton)
CAGR: + 4.7%
570
505
432
448
471
473
2011
2012
2013
519
2014
Consistently
controlling the
production
cash cost at a
level below
the inflation
pace.
LTM 3Q15
35
1.551
ZCC
swap
(2.202)
Adjusted
EBITDA
3T15
(1)
Exchange
variation
on debt
515
Other
exchange
variation
(362)
MtM
hedge
(209)
Hedge
settlement
current
(34)
(95)
Net
Interest
(601)
deffered
(484)
719
Deprec.,
amortiz. and
depletion
Income
Taxes
Others (1)
Net Income
(Loss)
3T15
36
Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among
its Latin American peers
Net Debt/EBITDA (x)(1)
14.8
13.2
11.7
4.8
3.6
4.5
11.1
8.9
4.5
6.2
7.7
3.6
3.23.4
3.1
2.9
3.0
2.7
3.1
2.7
2.4 2.3
2.4
1.7
1.7
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
Fibria
1Q13
Suzano
2Q13
3Q13
Klabin
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
CMPC
3Q14
4Q14
Arauco
3.1
2.9
2.2
1Q15
5.0
4.5
3.8 3.5
3.3
3.0
3.1
2.9
4.2
4.1
3.7
6.4
2Q15
2.1
3Q15
Eldorado
Fibria
Arauco
CMPC
Klabin
Suzano
S&P
BBB-/Stable
BBB-/Stable
BBB-/Stable
BBB-/Negative
BB+/Stable
Moodys
Baa3/Stable
Baa3/Stable
Baa3/Negative
Ba2+/Stable
Fitch
BBB-/Stable
BBB/Stable
BBB+/Stable
BBB-/Stable
BB/Positive
(1)
37
7.29
5.9
5.5
5.2
8.6
4.11
4.25
3.32
473
2.60
6.3
2.41
414
408
4.6
1.58
268
200
3.2
2009
2010
2011
2012
Gross Debt
2013
2014
3.3(1)
3.4
350
149
2.4
Sep/15
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
LTM
3Q15
Net Debt
Interest
Reduction
Cost of Debt
Reduction
These dynamics
creates a virtuous
cycle
(*) Considering the portion of debt in reais fully adjusted by the market swap curves of September. 30, 2015.
38
Amount: R$675m
Book of US$515m
Avg. Term
(years)
160
175
140
143
150
Raizen
Ecopetrol
Fibria
Colbun
Braskem
Molymet
Argos USA
113
120
COPEC
39
746
678
526
550
412
326
333
348
356
Fibria
BRF
Embraer
Globopar
363
Brazil
Klabin
Vale
Braskem
Gerdau
Petrobras
40
7.29
6.3
5.9
1.400
5.5
5.2
4.11
1.200
4.6
4.25
1.000
3.4
3.32
3.3(1)
800
2.60
2.41
600
400
1.58
5.9
200
5.52009
2010
2011
2012
5.2
Leverage4.6
2013
2014
2010
set/15
Cost of debt
3.4
BBB-
2011
Fibria 2020
2012
2013
Fibria 2021
2014
2015
Fibria 2024
3.3(1)
BBB-
Baa3
41
Fibria has the simplest and most transparent call in the industry
Negative
Pulp supply
Neutral
Positive
Tissue
China
Closures/conversions
Inefficient capacities in China
Demand
Fiber and grade substitution
Pulp price
Brazil GDP
Energy crisis
FX
Capex inflation
Tax
Corporate Governance
Cost inflation
Rating
42
Final Remarks
43
DRIVERS
Strong cash generation
Capital discipline
TIMELINE:
Record date: Nov 30th
Payment dates:
BM&FBovespa: Dec. 9, 2015.
NYSE: Dec. 16, 2015.
Dividend yield* = 7%
* Considering dividend of R$149 million paid in May and the proposed payment of R$ 2 billion on Market Cap. on September 30th, 2015.
44
Fibria is able to create value for its shareholders with capital discipline
BIO-ENERGY AND
PULP
INDUSTRY
CONSOLIDATION ?
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES
DIVIDENDS
Complementary to pulp
Portocel
Horizonte 2 Project
46
Competitiveness
Commercial
positioning
Long-term growth
potential
47
Start-up: 4Q2017
Capacity: 1.75 million tons
7,950
Fibria
CMPC
RGE/APRIL
Suzano
APP
Eldorado
UPM
Stora Enso
Arauco
Cenibra
ENCE
Altri
IP
Marubeni
Mitsubishi
Oji
Mondi
Nippon Paper
Verso
Resolute
Georgia-Pacific
Portucel Soporcel
Lwart
Pulp Mill Holding
Domtar
Klabin
Others
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Current Capacity
New Capacity
48
37%
42%
19%
24%
36%
25%
4%
9%
(1) Considers 3Q15 last twelve months. | (2) Includes Klabins sales volume
49
Schedule
Purchase of the
industrial plants
Beginning of
infrastructure and
purchase of the TGs
Beginning of forest
machinery deliveries
Beginning of
construction
Negotiations with
concession holders and
Port of Santos tendering
Beginning of
harvest
Beginning of
assembly
Definition of outbound
logistics formats
Startup
Utilities clearance
and commissioning
L1 interconnections
during maintenance
downtime
Hiring of operational
team
2Q15
3Q15
2015
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
2016
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
2017
50
Forestry base
51
H2 Project will have the forest base ready for the start-up
120,000 ha
H2:
174,000 ha
Total:
294,000 ha
52
Logistics
53
Forestry Logistics
Low average distance from forest to mill
FOREST
MILL
95 km
H1 + H2 consolidated
54
Outbound logistics
Fibria has logistical alternatives on a competitive basis
Ports
Highways
Railroads
Waterways
Analysis
Logistics Costs
Opex - Rates
Capex
Qualitative
Modal conditions
Mato Grosso
Brasilia
Gois
Mato
Grosso do
Sul
55
Financials
56
1,825
1,460
1,035
2,200
4,645
3,470
14,045
Total: 28,680
BHKP (US$/t)
515
507
68
86
440
102
447
China
421
USA
338
Canada
383
25
358
Iberia
Working capital
release: US$10/t
340
326
60
47
280
Chile/Uruguay
342
13
83
Interest
58
35
49
Capex
Income Tax
SG&A
174
171
151
Brazil
Fibria 3Q15
Fibria w/ H2
232
279
Indonesia
Source: Hawkins Wright (Price Forecast October 2015) and Fibrias 3Q15 Earnings Release - FX considered by the consultant at R$/US$3.86. H2
cash cost was estimated according to weighted average cost, after mill balance, converted at R$3.86. Includes energy sales.
57
Timetable
60%
8.7
2%
7.7
0.2
26%
2.0
0.8
9%
1.7
19%
33%
72%
72%
3%
3%
Original
BRL
USD
EUR
2.5 bn
Revised
2015
2016
2017
2018
1%
2019 and
thereafter
2.2 bn
Funding
Cost and maturity:
H2
3Q15
3Q15 + H2
3.3%
2.0%
2.8%
4.3
6.3
5.0
1,111
494
Cash (2)
742
104
Liquidity
2015
204
2016
66
1.320
481
321
2017
2018
BNDES
Capex H2
715
673
576
726
2019
Bond
66
2020
PPE
2021
139
119
2022
2023
NCE
2024
115
103
45
13
2025
2026
2027
2028
ACC/ACE
22
(1) Debt FX 3Q15: 3.9729 / FX considering new funding for the TLS II Project: 3.90 (2) Cash on hands: US$ 994 million
59
We expect Fibria to continue benefiting from higher operating cash flows which
would allow it to enlarge its Trs Lagoas industrial complex while keeping its debt at
reasonable levels for a low investment-grade rating
Fitchs base case, which assumes that the company builds a new pulp mill (Trs
Lagoas II) starting in 2015 and uses net pulp prices of between USD575 and USD675
per ton during the construction period, results in net leverage reaching 3.5x(1). Net
leverage would quickly decline to around 2.5x(1) once the mill becomes operational
in the second half of 2017
60
UNIT
R$
US$
k tons
1,850
1,850
Expansion capex(1)
$ billion
8.7
2.2
Expansion capex(1)
$/t
4,702
1,189
Sustaining capex(2)
$/t
193
48
Cash cost(3)
$/t
341
85
MWh
120
120
Pulp production/year
Energy surplus
(1) Includes chemical leasing and investments in order to increase capacity to 1,850 kt/year.
(2) Estimated sustaining capex in perpetuity considering capacity of 1,850 kt/year.
(3) Estimated weighted average cost, after mill balance. Includes energy sales.
61
Infrastructure/Logistics
Governance standards
Cost of capital
Environmental requirements
Credit rating
Backup
63
Goodwill
(Aracruz
acquisition)
Forestry Capex
in Mato Grosso
do Sul state
Maturity
Benefit
Amount
Tax loss
carryforward
2018
Balance set/2015:
- PIS/COFINS: R$639 million
Accumulated tax
credits
Undefined
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
R$ 16 million
R$ 4 million
R$ 15 million
R$ 31 million
R$ 29 million
R$ 51 million
64
Leadership Position
Industry Outlook(1)
Fiber Consumption
406 million t
59%
41%
Recycled Fiber
238 million t
Pulp
168 million t
18%
82%
Mechanical
30 million t
Chemical
138 million t
59%
41%
Integrated Mills
82 million t
Market Pulp
56 million t
54%
46%
Softwood/Other
26 million t
Hardwood
30 million t
33%
67%
Acacia/Other
10 million t
Eucalyptus
20 million t
74%
Other Eucalyptus
Pulp producers:
15 million t
26%
(1) Fiber Consumption, Recycled Fiber and Pulp: RISI | Market Pulp, Hardwood and Eucalyptus: PPPC Global 100 Report December 2014
65
40.000
35.000
000 ton
1999
2009
2019
Growth
19992009
Growth
20092019
Hardwood
16.3
24.8
33.8
52%
36%
Eucalyptus
6.0
15.9
24.1
165%
52%
Softwood
19.0
21.4
24.9
13%
16%
Market Pulp
35.3
46.2
58.7
30%
27%
30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000
10.000
5.000
Hardwood
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
Softwood
Source: PPPC reports. Excludes Sulphite and UKP market pulp (Sept./15)
66
9M2014
6.876
6.334
9M2015
3.087
3.680
LTM Growth
Rate +4.2%
30
25
20
15
1.5931.558
BHKP Total
(kg/person/year)
35
10
1.486 1.342
129 139
26 151
USA
Canada
Latin
Indonesia Others(2)
America (1)
5
13
Western
Europe
(1) includes South Africa and New Zealand. | (2) Includes China, Japan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand and Vietnam.
22%
21%
23%
23%
W.Europe
Japan
Africa
E.Europe
China
L.America
Asia FE
(million t)
12
10
17%
(Kg/capita/year)
24
8
15%
12%
10%
14%
15
6
10%
10%
4
5%
15
12
7
0%
5
1
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eucalyptus
Hardwood
Total
N.
West Japan Oceania East LatAm
America Europe
Europe
China
Africa
67