Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Pocc
Ukrana
Ukraine
Rossija
Russia
The names of the countries. Above is the official name as written in the
script of that country.
In the middle is the transliteration (a translation of the type script, which is
Cyrillic to Latin, in this case)
Down there stands the full, English translation.
Main Question: How did the war between Ukraine and Russia arise?
Preamble:
The Ukrainian crisis is one of the most recent happenings that are of
interest for the Netherlands.
It is a social issue of which many aspects have consequences for us; from
the infamous crash of MH17, the sanctions on tomato and fruit import from
Russia on the EU, refugees from Ukraine which come to the European
Union, to the ruble crisis.
It should come as no wonder that this needs an explanation; therefore I
decided, this time, to make my final project for the social sciences about
the Ukrainian crisis.
There shall rise many questions about this crisis. What happened? What do
we do? How should we cope with these problems? Surviving relatives have
mourned the dead of the flight MH17. The Dutch government reacted on it
by conducting an investigation into the crash. The European Union
imposed sanctions on Russia. Separatists are fighting in the border
territory of Ukraine and Russia. And so there are many other reactions, all
from different organisations, which all are involved in this crisis.
The question is, what is your reaction on the crisis? How do you look at it,
and why do you do so?
To be able to form a response on an event, it needs to be known what
happened, how that came so, and why, and what the effects are.
That is what I will exemplify in my final project.
In order that an opinion can be formed that is complete, that the entire
picture can be seen, rather than looking selectively at parts of it.
Sub-Question 1:
What is the previous history of Ukraine and Russia in relation to
each other?
Russia and Ukraine share a special connection with each other.
Both countries, including Belarus, share their origins in a
kingdom that was in what now roughly encompasses Ukraine and southern
Belarus. This kingdom, also called the Kievan Rus[1] was founded in 882
A.D. by Rurik, a Viking warlord.
The Kievan Rus remained to exist for 358 years. During that time, it
expanded until at its zenith, in 1000 A.D., it stretched across 800,000 km2.
In the meantime, the country was divided between sons and grandsons of
Rurik the Great. Nonetheless, it remained an united entity.
After this age, the country slowly declined, until it was gradually
conquered around 1240 by the Mongols, which were under the command
of the grandson of Genghis Khan, called Batu Khan. In 1240, the last part
of the Kievan Rus that was still independent, was conquered. After this
time it mainly were the republic Novgorod and the grand duchy of
Muscovy that were powerful, and they were mainly able to keep
themselves independent from the Mongols. However, in 1476, Novgorod
was conquered by Muscovy, which already grew in power for a few years.
Following this, under Czar Ivan IV, Muscovy was reformed into the tsaristic
Russia - Rossiya, as they called it themselves.[2]
The czarist empire expanded during many years, and
particularly enormously under Catherine the Great; under her reign alone,
Russia expanded with what is now called modern Asiatic Russia (with the
exception of the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin), and the westernmost parts of
Ukraine were conquered.
When the czarist empire came to an end due to the October Revolution
and the Russian Revolution, for the
first time there was talk of a real
Ukrainian - though not independent state; the (Ukrainian Socialist
Soviet Republic) was found, which
pretty much was an autonomous
federal state of the U.S.S.R. Moscow
became the capital of the Soviet
Union. This capital was located in the
Russian SFSR. Next to this, all SSRs
(Socialist Soviet Republics) are shown
on a map.
After the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine became independent. Russia was
recognised as the successor state of the Soviet Union.
The
independence of Ukraine, however, had been recognised by Russia with
pain, because alongside with Kazakhstan, Ukraine formed one of the more
important constituent republics for the USSR. Up to the present day, the
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Sub-Question 2:
How was it possible that the Ukrainian Revolution had such a
drastic effect on Ukraine?
Ukraine has experienced various revolutions through the times.
The nation of Ukraine has a turbulent history regarding revolutions; in
1917, as a part of the Russian Empire, it saw the Russian Revolution come
and go by, and in 1919 Ukraine declared itself independent.[4]
However, this independence which you could call an independence
revolution only lasted for a few years, until in 1921 their independence
ended. After this, Ukraine was made an autonomous federal state of the
U.S.S.R., until the country again declared itself independent during the fall
of the Soviet Union, at the beginning of the 90s.
The Soviet
Union recognised this independence, although with great reluctance.
Despite this, Russia still exerted a large influence on Ukraine; for
example, in 2004, the Orange Revolution was present in Ukraine.
This revolution was remarkable in the
sense that, due to the process being relatively peaceful, another premier
came into power than was appointed according to the elections.[5]
After this, it remained relatively silent in Ukraine, until 21 november in the
year 2013.
In that year, an association treaty almost was signed between the EU and
Ukraine.
Russia did not want Ukraine to sign this, and the premier
of Ukraine refused to sign it too, at the last minute. Presumabely so, it was
rejected because Ukraine formed a de facto buffer state between Russia
and the EU, like Belarus is.
This sparked a new revolution, which also was called the Ukrainian
Revolution, or Euromaidan[6].
Many people demonstrated against Yanukovych and demanded that the
treaty be signed; they wanted to be with the EU, because according to
them, it would give them wealth and liberty.
Initially, it was not recognisable as a revolution, but as time went, the
press freedom and freedom of assembly were restricted.
Finally, the conflict escalated and there were battles fought, governmental
buildings were occupied, and even a burst of iconoclasm broke loose[7] in
the Ukrainian House, which was a museum. In reaction to this, Viktor
Yanukovych fled to Russia, causing Oleksandr Turchynov to become
interim-president for a few months, until Petro Poroshenko was elected by
the Ukrainians. Poroshenko is pro-EU.
Sub-Question 3:
How could the conflict escalate to a de facto war between
Ukraine and Russia?
To understand this, one first needs to search to the origin of the conflict,
which lasts to this day. Where began the cause (casus belli) of the conflict
and the crisis[9]?
When Ukraine became independent in 1990, they declared that they will
be a neutral country. However, on 22 July 2008, it was announced that an
association treaty would be signed between Ukraine and the EU.[10] At the
time, this hardly led to any conflict, since the credit crunch had not begun
yet. A conflict could have arosen over it, but the public focus quickly
shifted to the credit crisis once it had begun.
In 2012, the association treaty was initialed, but was not signed yet.[10]
February 2013 dawned, and a resolution was adopted in the Ukrainian
parliament, which decided to try its best to comply with the advice of the
EU regarding safety, transport and human rights. During that time,
Yanukovych also was working on negotations with Russia for a customs
union.[10]
However, at the end of February 2013, Barroso the president of the
European Commission - said that a country could not be a member of both
a customs union and a free trade area with the EU.
On 22 August 2013, Putin said (translated into English) the following:
'' If our neighbours opt to choose to significantly liberalise customs rules
with the European Union, the Ukrainian market will inevitably be flooded
with high quality goods ... and Ukrainian goods will be forced out of the
Ukrainian market. "
After that, he added to it: Then, member states of the customs union will
have to think about protectional measures. Such a possibility exists. [11]
According to critics, their presumptions
were confirmed with this; Putin does not want Ukraine to lean more
towards the side of the EU.
During this period, the Crimea separated itself from Ukraine, and after a
day already, it was added to Russia.[14] After this, the situation quickly
escalated; in secret, Russia decided to deliver arms to separatist groups in
East Ukraine, and de facto, they were supported.[15] Hereafter, the
separatists conquered Luhansk and Donetsk, and MH17[16] was shot down.
After these conquests and MH17 that was shot down, the international
attention focused on the conflict in the area, and due to this, tensions
increased even more.
Due to this conflict, more than three thousand deaths have fallen in
Ukraine, and inflation has greatly increased in the country. The corruption
also has now been revealed, and it appeared even bigger than thought.
Sub-Question 4:
What consequences does this conflict between Ukraine and
Russia have, regarding the international relations with Russia,
and that of Russia and the EU (European Union)?
The scenario of the Cold War, but a re-emergence version of it, has
fascinated and feared many people.
The recent tensions between Russia and her surrounding countries lets us
think about a Cold War a situation of tensions, with sometimes indirect
conflicts between two or more large states, and their allies or vassal
states.[17]
The similarities between the Cold War of 1945-1991 and the current
conflict in Ukraine, that suggest there is a Second Cold War[18] ongoing, are
among other that:
There are tensions between great powers and their allies/vassal states.
Parties in the Ukrainian-Russian war are among others:
Pro-Russian: Russia, pro-Russian separatists
Pro-Western/EU: Ukrainian government, European Union, US, NATO
member states, Japan, Australia, New Zealand
There has been talk of a proxy war between Russia on one side, and the
West on the other side. Under the West in this context, the following is
understood: The NATO, EU, Ukraine, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan.
There are sanctions, embargoes, and boycots from both parties, against
each other.[19]
Inbetween however, it has to be told that the sanctions, embargoes, and
boycots in the current conflict mainly have had effect on Russia,[20] which
is much more dependant on oil and gas than the US.
An example is the grain embargo of 1980[21] that the US imposed upon the
Soviet Union, as a reaction on the invasion of Afghanistan of the Soviet
Union. Although it was called an embargo, it actually was a sanction
because in this case it was about a specific good; grain.
There also were boycots of the Olympic Games in 1980 by the United
States[22], because these were played in a communist country, the Soviet
Union which was unacceptable for the US, because the USSR was a
repressive country, according to the United States government.
In 1984, the USSR in its turn boycotted the Olympic Games in the US, also
for political reasons.
Like in the Cold War, Russia (back then, the leading country in the USSR)
plays a central role this time in the current Ukrainian conflict.
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The relations between Ukraine and Russia have cooled down considerably,
even to the point of hostile; for example, Ukraine has introduced hefty
sanctions upon Russia, and they have not recognised the rebels as an
organisation due to political considerations.
The United States has plans to weaponise Ukraine,[27] and the United
Kingdom has offered to send military advisors to Ukraine, but they shall
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not directly engage battle there, in contrast to what had been thought
before.[28][29]
The NATO, as an entity, has sent military units to the east of their territory
in particular the Baltic states to protect these countries against what
they reason, a possible Russian invasion.[30]
Due to the hefty sanctions against each other between the EU and Russia,
there hardly can be said that there is trade between these two entities.
In my own words, I thus would like to express: a new, invisible Iron Wall
has arosen, that of coldness and anger against each other.
Sub-Question 5
Why is the conflict so important?
This has multiple reasons. To see why the conflict is so important, we have
to go back to the moment where the conflict arose, or even further back,
to the cause of the conflict.
One of the more important sources that the
conflict is so important in the eyes of the West, are the media.[31] The
media nowadays have a large influence on the forming of the public
opinion; today, they are almost the sole source of news, next to press
conferences and personal discussions.
One of the other causes that the conflict that the
conflict is so important for the West, is that back when MH17 was taken
down, in retrospect it turned out to be a civil aircraft that was taken down
because they were mistaken for a military aircraft. These civilians flew
over a conflict area, whereby leading to that after the crash, the bodies of
the dead could not be repatriated directly. That led to a huge controversy.
Another notable factor worth explaining, is
that of the 298 travellers (283 passengers and 15 crew members) there
were as much as 240 victims from Western countries, of which the
substantial majority 193 people were from the Netherlands.[16][32]
Because of this, the crash of the MH17 flight has been seen as a direct
attack on the West.
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Then there is one last factor left which is of importance to explain why the
conflict is so important; Euromaidan.[6]
Many Ukrainians wanted that at once their country would join the EU, or in
any case, begin closer ties with it, while the Russians in Ukraine preferred
not to,[39] and instead wanted to see a return to the politics from before
Euromaidan; a pro-Russian government.
But even the
Ukrainians were divided deeply about the question whether they wanted
to sign the association treaty with the EU, and to eventually join with the
EU.
Less than half of the Ukrainians supported this idea, while the
rest either wanted to remain neutral, or wanted to join the customs union
of Russia. With this, Ukraine is a rather divided country.
Main Question
How did the war between Ukraine and Russia arise?
In order to answer the main question with this, all sub-questions are used
as reference and sources.
The emerge of the conflict cannot be found with one,
two, three. Nothing is from nature immediately obvious. Thus we will have
to look first at what the straw that breaks the camels back was; the
spark that detonated the conflict.
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If there are different sorts of oil that can be thrown on the fire, then to my
analyse, Euromaidan would be the bit of oil that made the fire turn into a
blowtorch; the event that let the unrest escalate into a conflict.
Why I take Euromaidan as the cause, has different reasons.
First, to me, without the protests of Euromaidan, the
[10]
treaty
would not have passed and it would have ended with a fizzle; it
would have been ignored and possibly at most have ended as a small
newspaper report on the back.
But that didnt happen; Euromaidan broke out. Due to this, Russia became
scared that Ukraine maybe still really would seek rapprochement, instead
of keeping close ties with Russia. Europe, and especially the United States,
have had cool relations with the Russian government for years. What also
plays a part, is that many European countries are a part of the EU and the
NATO, of which the United States also is a member and seen as the de
facto leader of. The NATO was a long-time rival of the Warsaw Pact, of
which the Soviet Union the precessor state of Russia was the leader.
Thus, maybe the United States maybe is seen by the Russian government
as an archrival of Russia, and a symbol of decadency of the West; maybe
the US would have been behind the whole conflict all the time?
In contrast to this, the United
States and the European Union do not see this as such.
They
explain it as following: Ukraine only wants to open trade with the West
some more.
If that would be accepted, they reason, then general
prosperity would come to the Ukrainians.
After that, within the Russian government it was secretly suggested to
itself that the Crimea could be annexed, and maybe eastern Ukraine too.
Whether this was meant to be a punishment for the sudden change from
pro-Russian to pro-EU course in Ukraine, is not sure, but it is certain that
after the fall of Yanukovych the Russians got it harder in Ukraine.
This could have motivated Putin to support the rebels in the east, and to
annex the Crimea.[40] Up to the present day, the end of february 2015, in
Ukraine is still fought.
At the moment, the conflict has costed the
live to 2.951-40.850 people, depending on the source (the Ukrainian
government or the separatists), and the height of the estimates (lowest
and highest estimates). Wikipedia indicates the number of 5.486 dead as
result of the conflict.[36] Furthermore, at least a million Ukrainians have
become displaced, and a 600.000 Ukrainians have fled to Russia, and the
economy of Ukraine has gotten into a crisis.[41] The future will tell what
eventually shall happen.
Sources:
Sub-Question 1:
1. http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kievse_Rijk
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2. http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geschiedenis_van_Rusland
3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union
Sub-Question 2:
4. http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oekraense_Volksrepubliek
5. http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oranjerevolutie
6. http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan
7. http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tijdlijn_van_de_Oekranecrisis
Sub-Question 3:
8. http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Staatsgreep
9. http://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tijdlijn_van_de_Oekranecrisis
10. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine
European_Union_Association_Agreement
11. https://euobserver.com/foreign/121189
12.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Ukrainian_c
risis
13.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_individuals_sanctioned_during_the_U
krainian_crisis
14.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federat
ion
15. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Donbass
16. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 (also included
in S.Question 5)
(I could not find any other sources by some sources, that presented the
news in a somewhat neutral and objective way. The Ukraine crisis knows
much tensions and is strongly influenced by propaganda on both sides.
Due to this, I have decided to not accept sources of; Russia Today, Sputnik
News, BBC, Radio Free Europe, and similar; these sources each lean
towards the pro-Ukrainian side, or the pro-Russian side, and as such are
not entirely reliable because they do not write neutrally. I apologise.
I also would like to include that some sources have been written in
another language. These sources often are written in my native language.
Finally, I offer anyone the right to use this essay, under limited copyright.
No editions nor any alterations are to be added by anyone, otherwise their
versions are labelled as false.)
See next page for more sources.
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Sub-Question 4:
17. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puppet_state
18. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_War_II
19.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Ukrainian_c
risis
20. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/201415_Russian_financial_crisis
21. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_grain_embargo
22. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Summer_Olympics_boycott
23. http://www.wsj.com/articles/tensions-rise-in-central-europe-over-use-ofrussian-nuclear-technology-1424439629
24. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/01/us-russia-gas-gazprompipeline-idUSKCN0JF30A20141201
25. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Stream
26. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/15/us-russia-putin-yanukovichidUSKBN0MB0GV20150315
27. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/02/obama-ukraine-crisis150209185919308.html
28. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/24/uk-ukraine-crisis-britainidUKKBN0LS1X320150224
29. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/02/25/uk-ukraine-crisis-britainidUKKBN0LT1AS20150225
30. http://news.yahoo.com/us-sends-heavy-armour-baltic-states-deterrussia-132033780.html
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