TRAFFIC CONFLICT

STUDIES

Background

Background

Traffic engineers use accident data to determine:

Which locations are most hazardous.
What kinds of hazards are present.
Whether a change in the design or operation
has been effective.

Background

Problems with accident data?

Not all accidents are reported.
Due to manpower & budget limitations, there is
a trend by police agencies not to report property
damage only accidents.
Incomplete accident data & errors makes
identification of roadway hazards less accurate.

Background

Accidents are fairly infrequent & happen

sporadically.

A long time is needed to collect enough accident

data to be useful.

Background
Statistical problem that many people do not
appreciate ?
Nos. of accidents at one intersection from yr to yr :

10, 24, 12, 20, 18, 14, 20, 10, 14

If one looked at only one or two years, one would not

know what is typical.

Is it 10 to 24 per year, or is it 20 to 10 per year?

Background

Thus,
what other traffic indicators
are useful ???

Traffic Conflict Technique (TCT)

TCT is perhaps the most developed indirect

measure of traffic safety.
TCT is the ability to register the occurrence of
near-accidents directly in real-time traffic.
Offers a faster & more representative way of
estimating expected accident frequency &
accident outcomes.

Traffic Conflict Technique (TCT)

The main criticisms?

Concern issues of reliability & validity.
Whether accident risk is actually being measured
in a satisfactory manner.

History of TCT

Conflict technique emanates from research

originally at the Detroit General Motors laboratory
in the late 1960s for identifying safety problems
related to vehicle construction (Perkins & Harris,
1968).

History of TCT
Use of this technique soon spread to different
parts of the world.
TRL in England soon recognised the need to add
a subjective scale for observed conflicts as a
measure of severity (Spicer, 1973).
This technique was based on observer
judgements using time-lapse filming, thereby
proving costly & time-consuming.

History of TCT

Swedish Traffic Conflict Technique (STCT) was

developed at Lund University in different projects
during the 1970s & 1980s before finally reaching
present day level of development in 1987 (Hydn,
1987).

History of TCT

Swedish technique focuses on situations where

two road-users would have collided had neither of
them made any kind of aversive manoeuvre.

History of TCT

The point at which the aversive action is taken

is recorded through observation as the
Time-to-Accident(TA).
TA value together with the conflicting speed is
used to determine whether or not a conflict is
serious.

Collision diagram

Conflict diagram

TCT
Definitions
Reference:
Traffic Conflict Techniques for Safety and Operations
(Observers Manual)
US Department of Transportation,
Federal Highway Administration
January 1989

General Definition

Primary requirement of a traffic conflict is that

the action of the 1st user places the other user on
a collision path, unless evasive action is taken by
the other user to avoid the accident.

Generally, the road users are motorists,

but the definition also includes
pedestrians, bicyclists & motorcyclists.

General Definition

General definition
Rule Out
actions that nearly all drivers take
under the same conditions
such as:
normal stopping for a STOP sign
OR
red traffic signal.

General Definition

Collisions & Near miss situations that occur

without evasive manoeuvres,
or when the evasive action is inadequate
are also recorded as conflicts
under the general definition.

General Definition
An intersection traffic conflict is described as an
event involving the following stages.
Stage 1:
The 1st vehicle makes a maneuver;
e.g., pulling out from the cross street.
Stage 2:
A 2nd vehicle is placed in danger of a collision.

General Definition

Stage 3:
The driver of 2nd vehicle reacts by braking
or swerving.
Stage 4:
The 2nd vehicle then continues to proceed
through the intersection area.

General Definition
Note:
The last stage is necessary to convince the observer
that the 2nd vehicle was actually responding to
the manoeuvre of the 1st vehicle,
and not,

for example to a traffic control device or nearby

driveway or median opening.

General Definition

Evasive manoeuvre taken by 2nd vehicle

is evidenced by obvious braking or swerving.
Braking is usually observed as brakelight
indications.
Noticeable diving of the vehicle or squealing of
tyres in the absence of brake lights is acceptable
evidence of an evasive manoeuvre.

Operational Definition

Basic set of conflict definitions

were developed for intersections,
corresponding to the
different types of manoeuvres &
related accident patterns.

Operational Definition
Similar to the manner in which
accidents are grouped
by type of collision,
traffic conflicts are categorised
by type of manoeuvre.

Operational Definition

Primary types of intersection conflicts:

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Same Direction,
Opposing Right-Turn,
Cross Traffic,
Left-Turn-On-Red,
Pedestrian.
Secondary.

Operational Definition

The primary types of intersection conflicts are:

1. Same Direction

Operational Definition

Same Direction Conflicts:

A same-direction conflict occurs when 1st vehicle
slows and/or changes direction and places
the following vehicle in danger of a rearend
collision.
2nd vehicle brakes or swerves to avoid the
collision, then continues to proceed through the
intersection area.

Operational Definition

4 basic types of
SameDirection Conflicts ??

Operational Definition

i) Right-Turn, Same-Direction Conflict

A right-turn, samedirection conflict occurs when
the 1st vehicle slows to make a right turn, thus
placing a 2nd following vehicle in danger of
a rear-end collision (see Figure 1).

X
observer

Fig. 1: RT, same direction conflict

Operational Definition

ii) Left-Turn, Same-Direction Conflict

A left-turn, samedirection conflict occurs when
the 1st vehicle slows to make a left turn, thus
placing a 2nd following vehicle in danger of a
rear-end collision (see Figure 2).

X
observer

Fig. 2: LT, same direction conflict

Operational Definition

iii) SlowVehicle, Same-Direction Conflict

A slow-vehicle, same-direction conflict occurs
when the 1st vehicle slows while approaching
or passing through the intersection, placing a
2nd following vehicle in danger of a rear-end
collision (see Figure 3).

X
observer

Fig. 3: Slow vehicle, same direction conflict

Operational Definition

iv) LaneChange Conflict

A lane-change conflict occurs when the 1st vehicle
changes from one lane to another, thus placing a
2nd following a vehicle in the new lane in
danger of a rear-end or sideswipe collision
(see Figure 4).

X
observer

Fig. 4: Lane change conflict

Operational Definition

The primary types of intersection conflicts are:

2. Opposing Right-Turn

Operational Definition

i) Opposing Right-Turn Conflict

An opposing right-turn conflict occurs when an
oncoming vehicle makes a right turn, thus placing
a 2nd vehicle, going in the other direction,
in danger of a head-on or broadside collision
(see Figure 5).

X
observer

Fig. 5: Opposing RT conflict

Operational Definition

The primary types of intersection conflicts are:

3. Cross Traffic

Operational Definition

Cross-Traffic Conflicts
A cross-traffic conflict occurs when a vehicle on
the cross street turns or crosses into the path of
a 2nd vehicle on the main street who has the
right-ofway and places the 2nd vehicle in
danger of a rear-end, sideswipe, or broadside
collision, then proceeds through the intersection
area.

Operational Definition

Cross-traffic conflicts can occur from vehicle

manoeuvres on the left-hand and/or right-hand
cross street approach.

Operational Definition

a) Cross-Traffic Conflicts
From Left Cross Street Approach

Operational Definition

i) Left-Turn, Cross-Traffic-From-Left Conflict

A leftturn, crosstrafficfrom-left conflict occurs
when a vehicle on the lefthand cross street makes
a left turn, thus placing a 2nd vehicle on the
main street in danger of a broadside or rear-end
collision.
(see Figure 6).

X
observer

Fig. 6: LT, cross-traffic from left conflict

Operational Definition

ii) Right-Turn, Cross-Traffic-From-Left Conflict

A rightturn, crosstrafficfrom-left conflict occurs
when a vehicle on the lefthand cross street makes
a right turn, thus placing a 2nd vehicle on the main
street in danger of a broadside collision
(see Figure 7).

X
observer

Fig. 7: RT, cross-traffic from left conflict

Operational Definition

iii) Through, Cross-Traffic-From-Left Conflict

A through, cross-trafficfrom-left conflict occurs
when a vehicle on the left-hand cross street
crosses in front of a 2nd vehicle on the main
street, placing it in danger of a broadside collision
(see Figure 8).

X
observer

Fig. 8: Through, cross-traffic from left conflict

Operational Definition

b) Cross-Traffic Conflicts
From Right Cross Street Approach

Operational Definition

i) Left-Turn, Cross-Traffic-From-Right Conflict

A left-turn, cross-traffic-fromright conflict occurs
when a vehicle on the right-hand cross street makes a
left turn across the center of the main street
roadway and into an opposing lane, thus placing a
vehicle in that lane in danger of a head-on collision
(see Figure 9).

X
observer

Fig. 9: LT, cross-traffic from right conflict

Operational Definition

ii) Right-Turn, Cross-Traffic-From Right Conflict

A right-turn, cross-trafficfrom-right conflict occurs
when a vehicle on the right-hand cross street makes
a right turn, thus placing a 2nd vehicle on the
main street in danger of a broadside or rear-end
collision (see Figure 10).

X
observer

Fig. 10: RT, cross-traffic from right conflict

Operational Definition

iii) Through Cross-Traffic-From-Right Conflict

A through, cross-traffic-from-right conflict occurs
when a vehicle on the right-hand cross street crosses
in front of a 2nd vehicle on the main street
placing it in danger of a broadside collision
(see Figure 11).

X
observer

Fig. 11: Through cross-traffic from right conflict

Operational Definition

The primary types of intersection conflicts are:

4. Left-Turn-On-Red

Operational Definition
Left-TurnOnRed Conflicts

Left -turn-onred (LTOR) conflicts occur when a

LTOR vehicle makes a turn and crosses into the lane
of a second vehicle which has the right-of-way.
The driver of the 2nd vehicle brakes or swerves
to avoid a broadside, sideswipe, or rear-end
collision, then proceeds through the intersection
area.

Operational Definition
i) Opposing Left-Turn-OnRed Conflict
An opposing left-turn-on-red conflict can only
occur at a signalized intersection with a protected
right turn phase.
It happens when an oncoming vehicle makes a
leftturn-on-red during the protected right-turn
phase, thus placing a right turning, 2nd vehicle
(which has the right-of-way) in danger of a
broadside or rear-end collision.
(see Figure 12).

X
observer

Fig. 12: Opposing LT on red conflict

Operational Definition

ii) Left-Turn-On-Red-From-Left Conflict

A left-turn-on-red-from-left conflict is a special
category of the left-turn, cross-traffic-from-left
conflict (see Figure 13).
The leftturn onred conflict occurs only at
signalized intersections when a LTOR vehicle on
the left-hand cross street makes a LTOR manoeuvre
and places a 2nd vehicle on the main street in
danger of a sideswipe or rearend collision.

X
observer

Fig. 13: LT on red traffic from left conflict

Operational Definition

The primary types of intersection conflicts are:

5. Pedestrian

Operational Definition

Pedestrian Conflicts
They occur when a pedestrian (the road user causing
the conflict) crosses in front of a vehicle that has
the rightofway, thus creating a possible collision
situation.
The vehicle brakes or swerves, then continues through
the intersection area.

Operational Definition

Any such crossing on the near side or far side of the

intersection (see Figures 14 and 15) is liable to be a
conflict situation.

X
observer

Fig. 14: Pedestrian, far-side conflict

X
observer

Fig. 15: Pedestrian, near-side conflict

Operational Definition

However, the pedestrian movements on the

right and left sides of the intersection are
generally not considered to create conflict
situations if the movements have the rightof
-way, such as during a WALK phase.

Operational Definition

The primary types of intersection conflicts are:

6. Secondary

Operational Definition
Secondary Conflicts
In all of the foregoing conflict situations, when the
2nd vehicle makes an evasive manoeuvre, it may
place another road user (3rd vehicle) in danger
of a collision.
This type of event is called a secondary conflict.

Operational Definition

Nearly always, the secondary conflict will look much

like a slow-vehicle, samedirection conflict or a
lane-change conflict.

Operational Definition

The difference is that,

in a secondary conflict the
3rd vehicle is responding to a 2nd vehicle that,
itself, is in a conflict situation.
See examples in Figures 16 and 17.

X
observer

Fig. 16: Slow vehicle, same direction secondary conflict

X
observer

Fig. 17: LT, cross traffic from left secondary conflict

Operational Definition

By definition,
only one secondary conflict for any
initial conflict should be counted.
Even if a whole line of cars stops because the 1st
vehicle turns left, the event would be recorded as
one left-turn same-direction conflict and one
secondary conflict.

Conducting the
Survey

Conducting the Survey

Arrive at site
Select observation points
Check basic traffic patterns

Ready to conduct the survey.

Conducting the Survey

Time scheduling:
~survey several hours or several days?
~ observation process is still in 1-hour blocks.

Traffic engineer in charge determine:

~how many hours?
~ which hours to be used for conflict counting.
(see Figure 18 for site diagram)

North
X
Observer 2

East

West

X
Observer 1

South
Fig. 18: Intersection layout for traffic situation

Conducting the Survey

The Conflict Form

Conducting the Survey

A general-purpose form for recording traffic conflict

is shown in Figure 19.

The heading information, which is self-explanatory,

should be filled out in advance.

Fig. 19: Traffic conflict recording form

Conducting the Survey

Diagram in upper right corner indicates the
approach leg numbering system.
Traffic approaching from North is on Leg 1, etc.

A separate traffic conflict form

should be used for
each approach leg

Conducting the Survey

Recording period, e.g. 15-min. must be recorded at
the top of the form.
Start time should be recorded for each 15-min.
count (or other period specified by the engineer)
in the first column.

If, for any reason, the count was for

other than the prescribed count period,
record the actual time in the left margin.

Conducting the Survey

Typically, two observers are used to obtain

conflict data at intersections.

One observer could count conflicts for both

approaches by periodically alternating his
recording periods.

Traffic Conflict Data

Conducting the Survey

Collecting Other Data

Conducting the Survey

Traffic conflict counts are not meaningful unless they

can be related to the existing site conditions.
The site data needed may include:
i. physical inventory,
ii. intersection diagram,
iii. signal timings,
iv. photographs,
v. on-site observation report,
vi. traffic volumes.

Conducting the Survey

i) Physical Inventory
Signs, signals, pavement markings, type of
intersection, and other useful information are
noted in physical inventory.
Also include:
posted speed limits on all approaches.

Conducting the Survey

ii) Intersection Diagram

An intersection diagram should be made

of the study site.

Diagram should include a

north arrow, street names, route numbers.

Conducting the Survey

iii) Signal Timing
This includes:
cycle length, green, amber, red times
for all approaches.
Any separate phases, such as a right-turn phase,
should also be given.

Conducting the Survey

iv) Photographs/Videos
At least 5 pictures per approach, taken from the
drivers viewpoint.

2 cross-corner photographs made from the

stop line as though a driver were looking
left & right at the approaching cross traffic.

Conducting the Survey

v) OnSite Observation Report
During the course of the day,
the observer should note any apparent operational
& safety deficiencies of the intersection.

Conducting the Survey

vi) Traffic Volumes

Total volume or turning movement counts
cannot be done by a traffic conflict observer
when he is making the traffic conflict counts.
They are done by another person.
It is important that the correct
approach leg names & numbers are recorded.

Conducting the Survey

Time Schedule for

Collecting Other Data

Conducting the Survey

Can be completed before conflict observations

begin:

physical inventory,
intersection diagram,
signal timing,
photographs

Conducting the Survey

On-Site Observation Report should be

completed only after the conflict count is finished.
At this time, the observer should have a good
understanding of how the intersection operates &
some of the problems associated with it.

Conducting the Survey

Special Problems

Conducting the Survey

Normally, observations are not performed during

inclement weather, such as rain.
If roadways are completely wet or visibility is
reduced, observation should be stopped.

Conducting the Survey

Other problems may also occur :

Disruptive events such as accidents,
stalled vehicles, or police arrests that
could alter normal traffic flow patterns

Conducting the Survey

Safety Considerations

Conducting the Survey

An important item that should not be overlooked

in any field survey is safety.
Of course, when collecting conflict data, the
observer should be hidden.

Conducting the Survey

Completing the Survey

Conducting the Survey

After completing the field work, the observer should

provide the data to engineer for analysis and
interpretation.
Unusual problems or special conflict situations
should be discussed personally with the engineer
whenever possible.

Conducting the Survey

Some common analysis??

Conflict diagram
% Conflict types & vehicles involved
Dominant conflict types VS deficiencies at
intersection

Average conflicts per hour?

Average conflicts per hourly entering volumes

Conducting the Survey

Mean, Std deviation, 85th, 90th , 95th percentile

of aggregated conflicts
Relationship traffic conflict VS traffic volume

End