China's Mideast Moment

China's Mideast Moment?
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realclearworld.com

November 20, 2015
Contrary to what certain presidential candidates here in the

United States might say, the People's Republic of China
maintains a rather light footprint throughout most of the
Middle East, especially as compared to its steadily growing
presence in parts of sub-Saharan Africa.
However, as its economic and security interests become more
tethered to the region, Beijing may be ready to exert some of
its diplomatic and economic capital in the Mideast.
Al-Monitor's Mohammad Ali Shabani makes the case:
"Beijing's policy of mutual respect, dignity and
noninterference has had its dividends. Yet, these dividends
are what paradoxically have put China in the unique position
of now being able to play an important role as a proactive
facilitator of dialogue. The Saudi-Iranian cold war is one of
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the most important challenges facing the region today."

Shabani goes on to explain the importance of China's
relatively clean slate in the Middle East and its warm
relations with Riyadh and Tehran. These put China in a
strong position to broker an understanding between the
Mideast's two polar powers, should Beijing choose to try.
That is an ambitious aim, but if achieved, it could resonate
throughout the region, easing hostilities and elevating
China's status as a serious global power.
Beijing's energy needs, moreover, behoove it to do so. China
surpassed the United States earlier this year to become the
world's top importer of crude oil, much of which it purchases
from the Middle East. "Oil exports from South Sudan, where
Beijing has not hesitated to roll up its sleeves, only account
for a few percent of total Chinese oil imports," writes
Shabani. "In comparison, Tehran and Riyadh have at some
points this year provided one-quarter of China's crude
imports."
If a larger role for China in the Middle East seems unlikely,
then consider the late arrival to the region of another rising
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power: the United States. Much like China today, America

entered the 20th century as the proverbial new kid on the
block in the Middle East. American administrations had
established loose ties with sultans and other small regional
rulers, but the Mideast was primarily the purview of the
British and the French.
This somewhat green reputation provided the United States
with a veneer of objectivity. Some Mideast nations -- even
Iran, as unthinkable as that may seem now -- once viewed
American involvement in the region as providing a favorable
balance against traditional colonial powers.
China, however, is still likely years away from taking on a
more activist role in the Middle East, and Beijing will
probably continue to rely on the United States to keep the
region and its sea lanes secure for the foreseeable future.
Foreign Policy's Keith Johnson explains:
"China has spent years trying to build a blue-water navy that
could operate far from home. Since 2008 it has maintained a
long-distance anti-piracy patrol off the coast of Somalia
precisely to help limit the threat that pirates pose to shipping.
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But despite heroic efforts, including the launch of its first

aircraft carrier and a rapid naval modernization, China is still
decades away from matching U.S. naval capacities, which
leaves it hostage to regional instability."
More on this:
China's Balancing Act in the Gulf -- CSIS
Oman Looks East -- Al-Monitor
Why Washington's Middle East Pullback Makes Sense -Foreign Affairs
More Chinese Buyers Seek Homes in Dubai -- The National
Around the Region

Iraq flooding U.S. with oil. The United States isn't out of
the Mideast oil game just yet, however. CNN's Matt Egan
reports:
"The U.S. more than doubled its imports of oil from Iraq
between August and September, according to a Platts
analysis of U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics.
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"The dramatic increase in Iraqi oil imports is only adding to

the already-massive supply glut that has pushed down oil
prices. Crude oil prices sank to a four-month low of $40.06 a
barrel this week and they're down 12% in November alone.
[...]
"The U.S. imported 521,000 barrels of Iraqi oil per day
during the final week of October. That was up from zero
during several weeks in August."
Iraq's paramilitary problem. Shiite militias have become
an important component of Iraq's war against the Islamic
State group, filling the void left by the Iraqi army. And now
they want a raise. Reuters' Stephen Kalin has the story:
"Iraqi paramilitaries seen as essential in fighting Islamic
State are resisting moves to rein in their budget, highlighting
the challenge of imposing government authority on one of the
country's most powerful forces.
"Facing lower revenue because of declining oil prices, OPEC
oil exporter Iraq is planning widespread budget cuts next
year, with government expenditure set to drop by nearly 10
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percent to around $95 billion.

"The paramilitary forces, which include Iranian-backed
Shi'ite Muslim militias under a state-run umbrella called the
Hashid Shaabi, complain that instead of accepting their
request to fund 156,000 fighters next year, Baghdad plans to
cut tens of thousands from its ranks."
What Iraq's Shiite Popular Mobilization Forces, or al-Hashd
al-Shaabi, appear to be asking for sounds worryingly similar
to the paramilitary basij model in Iran, where volunteer
civilian forces, or basijis, operate separately from the Iranian
army, answering directly to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps. Indeed, hashd and basij essentially mean the same
thing.
Muslims dislike ISIS. Countries with large Muslim
populations overwhelming disapprove of the Islamic State
group. The Pew Research Center has the numbers:
"Recent attacks in Paris, Beirut and Baghdad linked to the
Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have once again
brought terrorism and Islamic extremism to the forefront of
international relations. According to newly released data that
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the Pew Research Center collected in 11 countries with

significant Muslim populations, people from Nigeria to
Jordan to Indonesia overwhelmingly expressed negative
views of ISIS.
"One exception was Pakistan, where a majority offered no
definite opinion of ISIS. The nationally representative
surveys were conducted as part of the Pew Research Center's
annual global poll in April and May this year."
The battle for Hama. Reporting from the front in Syria,
journalist Mohammed al-Khatieb details the strategic
importance of the centrally located city of Hama:
"Hama, in central Syria, would provide a link from the capital
Damascus, in the south, to northern Syria. Hama is also
Syria's fourth-largest city in terms of population, where about
750,000 people live (according to 2010 statistics). The
opposition sees an opportunity to gain the people's trust in
Hama, where in 2011, hundreds of thousands of citizens
protested against the regime. However, the city remained
under the regime's control and has not seen any armed
action, unlike cities in northern Syria."
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Uppers for Islamist warriors. Fighters in Syria aren't

fueled by fundamentalism and the desire for freedom alone.
The Washington Post reports on the rampant use of
Captagon in the wartorn country:
"A powerful amphetamine tablet based on the original
synthetic drug known as fenethylline,' Captagon quickly
produces a euphoric intensity in users, allowing Syria's
fighters to stay up for days, killing with a numb, reckless
abandon.
"You can't sleep or even close your eyes, forget about it,' said
a Lebanese user, one of three who appeared on camera
without their names for a BBC Arabic documentary that aired
in September. And whatever you take to stop it, nothing can
stop it.'"
"'I felt like I own the world high,' another user said. Like I
have power nobody has. A really nice feeling.'"
The use of uppers and other amphetamines on the warfront
is certainly nothing new, but it can lead to pervasive drug
problems long after the war, much as it did in Germany
following World War II.
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Editor's Note
The Mideast Memo will be taking a short break for the
Thanksgiving holiday, but will resume on Monday, Nov. 30.
Feedback
Questions, comments, or complaints? Feel free to send us an
email, or reach out on Twitter @kevinbsullivan.
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China's Mideast Moment?