This

weeks headlines

Bottom position for Scandinavian Airlines

Tesla to recall 90000 cars
The Renminbi is gaining ground
Chinese zinc producers reduce Output

WEEK 48

China is the single most important factor for commodities

China is the worlds second largest economy and has contributed

greatly to global economic growth. With Chinas rise came a
commodity boom that took some commodities to unprecedented
heights. In 2011 the price of iron ore had risen to 190 dollars per
metric ton, compared to 12 dollar per metric ton in 2000. China is
by far the largest consumer of commodities like coal, aluminum,
nickel, copper, zinc, lead and therefore these commodities have
become extremely dependent on how fast the Chinese economy
grows.
However, since 2011 Chinas economy has slowed down resulting in
falling commodity prices. This in turn has put a lot of financial
pressure on mining companies, who are seeing revenue streams dry
up. The falling commodity prices creates uncertainty regarding the
health of the Chinese economy, especially considering that Chinese
demand represent 30-50% of global demand for many
commodities.
Investors searching for bargains are increasingly turning to the
commodity sector. However, anybody investing in mining
companies or steel manufactures has to answer a very difficult
question; will Chinese demand increase or decrease in the coming
years? It is almost impossible to have opinion on any commodity
business without including an analysis of Chinese future demand.
The gigantic construction boom in China, lead by slogans like; if
we build it, they will come, drove the commodity boom forward
and created demand for almost every metal. China`s construction
boom peaked in 2011 and at the same time most commodities
peaked as well. Between 2011 and 2013 China used more cement
than the United States used between 1901-2000. Chinese demand
created the boom in commodity prices and now the boom has
turned to bust, but the apartments and cities in China remain.
Nobody should count on any China dependent commodity

reaching the previous record levels in 2011, because no single

demand factor can replace the massive construction boom in China
prior to 2015. China could possibly embark on a new construction
boom, but that would be foolish considering the apartment supply
glut currently in China.

Sweden
Bottom position for Scandinavian Airlines
Home service companies have already noticed the coming changes
in the RUT and ROT deduction, which is going to make it more
expensive to hire construction workers, maids and people of similar
occupations. Many customers have frozen their RUT purchases to
gain maximum advantage of the ROT dedication before the tax level
is lowered. The deduction limit for RUT services and the fact that
more services are pressed into RUT prevents growth in the home
service industry, Eva-Karin Dahl, CEO for Homemaids, mentioned to
Swedish Enterprise. She does not understand the government's
decision in the situation that prevails. The new, more restrictive
spending limits for RUT services will only lead to a redistribution of
jobs. her statement went further to say. Elsewhere, ICCTS
announced that SAS airline has the second worst fuel efficiency
among the major transatlantic airlines. Their survey research
question seeked to establish the fuel consumption rate per
passenger kilometer travelled, across the Atlantic. The list was
topped by Norwegian, followed by Air Berlin, while the bottom
positions went to British Airways followed by SAS and Lufthansa. In
total, the three companies at the bottom represented 20 percent of
the available passenger kilometers, and used 44 to 51 percent more
fuel per passenger kilometer than Norwegian. "It is surprising that
there are such large differences in fuel efficiency between airlines
that fly across the Atlantic. The airline you are flying with and the
aircraft they use plays a major role if you care about the
environment, "said Dan Rutherford, one of the report's authors in a
press release.

Stocks
Tesla to recall 90 000 cars
After finding a defective seat belt in one of their Model-S cars sold
in Europe, Tesla is now recalling 90 000 cars to make sure no other
Model-S have a similar installation problem. This was announced to
customers via email on Friday. Tesla share which opened Friday at
221$ tanked on the news, hitting 214$ but later recuperated,
closing Friday at 220$ a share. Following word of the recall, Swedish
seat belt supplier Autoliv went out in a statement and distanced
itself from the issue saying that the Model-S is not equipped with
their seat belts. General market resilience to bad news seems high
right now. Global stock indexes, after an initial sell-off triggered by
the events in Paris, have shrugged off the recent rise in terrorist
threat. The Nasdaq rallied on the back of Amazon and Alphabet
(formerly Google) and closed Friday 3.6 percent higher than it
opened on Monday, thereby almost regaining all of the previous
weeks decline. Another major company that did well last week was
Nike, as they announced what investors saw as a trifecta of reasons
to buy the stock. Nike reported a dividend increase of 14%, a
massive share buyback program and a stock split and got awarded
handsomely by investors, rising 8 percent on the week. After
initially reaching a high of 20 on the back of the events taking place
in France, the VIX index (measuring expected future volatility in the
S&P) is down to 15.47. The volatility index is still somewhat
elevated, but compared with August when VIX spiked to 40, its
clear to see that the stock markets have calmed down substantially
since the late summer. But even though the increased geopolitical
risk doesnt seem to have affected general valuations, we note that
the global security firm Securitas is up almost 10% on the week and
30% on the month.

Bonds and Forex

Commodities

The Renminbi is gaining ground

"The Renminbi meets the requirements to be a 'freely usable'
currency and, accordingly, the staff proposes that the executive
board should decide to include it in the SDR basket as a fifth
currency." Christine Lagarde, IMFs Managing Director, said in a
statement dated November 13th. The Renminbi will finally join the
club of reserve currencies, with the decision expected to be
finalized next Monday. The Chinese government over the last few
years has introduced financial reforms to loosen government
control, and in so doing, has made its currency a more viable option
for the global market. Being included in the basket seems to be the
blooming cusp of the current Chinese monetary policy arc. China is
likely to reap numerous benefits from this decision including a more
stable currency and economy going forward. Perhaps dreams of
enjoying a standing as something akin to an Asian USD have been
dreamt a few times over at the Beijing, Peoples bank. But as with
other things in Asia, there is tough competition to be found in their
Japanese counterparts. At the moment the Japanese Yen is the
third most traded currency in the world, after the US dollar and the
Euro. In this respect the Renminbi is lagging behind. Japanese
macro figures have been weak for a long time. An aging population,
low inflation, poor consumption and Japanese exports do not seem
to yield increases, despite the currently weak Yen. These factors
have resulted in yet another recession and as such a bearish to go
to catch up with the other reserve currencies, it may very well find
it easier than anticipated to gain ground at the moment.

Chinese zinc producers reduce Output

Commodity prices were a mixed bag during Fridays trade. The
brightest star was zinc, which had a great surge after it was
reported that the ten biggest Chinese zinc producers are interested
in reducing the supply of zinc. According to a statement on the
Shanghai based consult firm SMMs webpage, the producers plan is
to reduce their output by over 500 000 metric tons a year.

Oil had a calm Friday until new statistics on American supply were
announced, and the price took a leap upwards. For the first time in
many weeks, statistics showed that American supply had decreased
during the week. As a result, the market closed with a 1,5 per cent
surge to 44, 15 dollars in the Brent oil and a 0,3 per cent decline to
39, 39 in the WTI- oil. Michael Lynch at Strategic and Economic
research, was not however all too optimistic about the surge. In an
interview with Bloomberg news he expressed that it will take quite
an effort to make the oil prices fall even lower than they are at the
moment.

Indian Investor Makes Nordic Mines Stock Skyrocket.

Nordic Mines (NOMI), the Nordic mining- and exploration company

announced on Monday the 16th of November that a new main owner has
stepped in as a buyer of last weeks equity issuance which was directed to
existing stock owners. The new industrial main owner is the holding
company Lau Su Holding AB which has announced that it will invest
approximately 47 million SEK, thereby Lau Su now owns 61.5 per cent of
the stocks in the company. Lau Su is a consortium of investors with history
in the Indian gold market. As a result of the new owner, NOMI has had a
turbulent week on the market, rising more than 400 per cent and being
amongst the 15 most traded stocks on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.
According to the CEO of Nordic Mines, Eva Kaijser, the new capital will
enable Nordic Mines to keep its Finnish mine, Laivagruvan, and pay off
much of its larger debts.

Lucara Diamond Makes Biggest Finding in 100 years

As we wrote last week, the Africa-based diamond mining company Lucara

Diamond (LUC) had a special sale on the 12th of November that did not
meet the markets expectations. This week has been quite the opposite.
On the 18th of November the company announced that it has found a
staggering 1,111 carat diamond in the Karowe Mine in Botswana. The
stone is the second biggest in the world and is the biggest to be found in
over 100 years. This is huge for Lucara since a diamond of this magnitude
has never been sold in modern time. They followed up the grand diamond
with another two diamonds of white character on the 19th on 813 and 314
carats respectively. Due to this weeks findings the stock has been traded
up almost 50 per cent and got buy-recommendations from both RBC and
Swedbank.

myFC joins together with ABB

myFC has initiated a collaboration with ABBs new YuMi robot technology.
YuMi robots will produce the powercards for myFCs new fuel cell
charger, JAQ, and with this collaboration, myFC will build their first factory
in Sweden. myFCs JAQ is the worlds smallest charger which uses

environmentally friendly fuel cell technology to generate electricity

instantly for smartphones and tablets. JAQ helps users to charge their
batteries without depending on an electrical socket. Bjrn Westerholm,
CEO at myFC comments: the reason we are now initiating cooperation
with ABB and the new YuMi robots is so that we can control the whole
fuel production while at the same time become location independent.
This is why we are placing the first production facility in Sweden so that
we can make sure that the whole assembly and production is 100% green
using only renewable energy. The automation also means that we bring
down the production cost for the card

Christian Berner Tech Trade is preparing for new listing

The board of Christian Berner Tech Trade has decided that the company
will apply to be listed on Nasdaq Stockholm, Small Cap. The company is
currently registered at First North and the switch is intended to create
better opportunities for growth and expansion. Christian Berner has been
listed on First North since October 2014 and the company is aiming at
trading on Nasdaq Small Cap after mid-2016. CEO Bo Sderqvist sees the
change as an opportunity to grow in the whole Nordic market and to
reach more investors. He also perceives the new listing as the next natural
step for Christian Berner in their expansion strategy as this will increase
public knowledge of the company and solidify their position on the
market. Christian Berners specializes in technical solutions that lowers
cost and reduces the global footprint for its clients.

MACRO EVENTS WEEK 48
Monday:

Germany: Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash NOV

Euro Area: Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash NOV, Eurogroup meeting
Russia: GDP YoY OCT
United States: Chicago Fed National Activity Index OCT Markit
Manufacturing PMI Flash NOV, Existing Home Sales MoM OCT

Tuesday:

Japan: Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash NOV

Finland: PPI YoY OCT and Unemployment Rate OCT
Germany: GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3
France: Business Confidence NOV
United States: Corporate Profits QoQ Prel Q3, GDP Price Index QoQ 2nd
Est Q3 and GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q3

Wednesday:

Sweden: Business Confidence NOV, Consumer Confidence NOV, PPI

MoM OCT and PPI YoY OCT
Euro Area: Financial Stability Review
Great Britain: Government Autumn Forecasts
United States: Durable Goods Orders MoM OCT, Personal Income.
MoM OCT, Personal Spending MoM OCT New Home Sales MoM OCT.

Thursday:

Sweden: Balance of Trade OCT and Household Lending Growth YoY OCT.
Euro Area: M3 Money Supply YoY OCT and Loan Growth YoY OCT.

Friday:
Japan: Core Inflation Rate YoY OCT, Inflation Rate YoY OCT and
Unemployment Rate OCT.
Great Britain: Consumer Confidence NOV
Euro Area: Business Confidence NOV and Economic Sentiment NOV

SPOT PRICES and one week change

OMXS30
1 521,87
NASDAQ

5 104,92
S&P 500
2 089,17
DAX 30

11 119,83
NIKKEI

19 879,81
HANG SENG
22 754,72
Gold spot
1076,80
Crude Oil (Brent)
44,44
USD/SEK

8,719
EUR/USD
1,065


WRITERS
v Tomas Nyln

v David Ingman

v Carl Dalerstedt

v Mark Thiongo

v Matilda Andersson

v Emma Egnell

v Olof Svanemur

Technical analysts
v Carl Becht

v Daniel Rosengren

+3,09%
+3.61%
+3,26%
+3,84%
+1,44%
+1,72%
-0,64%
-2,96%
+0,46%
-1,39%

Christian Berners B

OMX Stockholm 30

OMXS30 has been trading in a primary uptrend since 2009.

Recently the stock has tested the bottom of the trend channel at
two occasions, most recently at 1369 points. If the stock was to
close beneath this trend channel it would be very bearish and
indicate a trend reversal. Currently there are many buyers present
at levels beneath 1500 points and the stock is closing in on the roof
of the middle-long trend channel. If it would break this resistance
line with accompanied high volume it would indicate we are to test
previous highs at 1700 points. RSI is neutral but the MACD line is
about to cross the signal line from beneath which would be very
bullish. A stop loss could be placed beneath the support line 1458
points. We are technically positive to the index in the short-term,
somewhat positive in the middle-long term and positive in the long-
term perspective.

Christian Berners stock price has developed very favourably lately,
and we have seen a steeper upturn since the stock broke up from
the trend channel on October 28. We have also seen a reverse and
go formation which has formed a support level around 13.7 SEK.
After this the stock has peaked at 15.8 while we can ensure a
weaker momentum and less volume the past few days. This
together with the red marubozo candle stick from Friday's trading
gives many indications that we can get a continued rebound down
towards support at 13.7 SEK. Stop loss suggested to somewhere
around 13.2 SEK. We are at present technically negative in the short
term and technically positive in the long term.

Ambia Trading

Ambia Trading Group has been trading in a downtrend since
November last year. It created both a double bottom formation and
a double top formation which is contradictive but the sellers won
the fight. However, the subsequent volume of the breakout was
low which indicates a false breakout. The stock traded downwards
to the levels indicated by the double top formation and seemingly
found a bottom at 9 SEK. Currently the stock is trading in a
rectangle formation. RSI shows that the stock is somewhat
overbought and the MACD line is closing in on the signal-line from
above which could trigger a sell-signal. A stop loss could be placed
beneath the support line at 12.6 SEK, or a less tight stop loss could
be beneath 9 SEK. We are technically negative to the stock in the
short-term, somewhat positive in the middle-long term and
negative in the long-term.

Nordic camping

Nordic Camping is moving inside a long-term positive trend.
Nordic Camping has been trading quite aggressively over the
whole trend channel range the past month. We have seen a very
high volatility and volume after the stock went through
resistance level at 22.6 SEK. This means that the stock price
could swing in a wide rage the coming period of time. MACD is at
a high level and is on its way down, which may be an indicator
for fall in the stock price. We would suggest a tight stop loss just
below 22.6 at present. We are technically neutral in the short
term and technically positive in the long term.

Doxa AB

DOXA AB has recently broken the upward trend channel on the
downside, the stock had been traded in the positive trend since it
reached a low of 0.86 SEK in October 2014. The stock is at present
traded in a low volatile and slightly negative rectangle formation
with decreased volume. This can result in a greater movement in
both directions out of the formation in the near future. Also the
MACD indicator has had a calm and downward development and
provides no direct guidance in this case. Stop loss suggested to just
below 1.50 SEK in a slightly longer perspective. We are in in the long
run technical negative to Doxa and also in the short term we have a
negative view.

Unlimited travel Group

Unlimited Travel Group has been trading in an uptrend. After a

breakout from a rectangle formation on the upside the stock hit the
resistance level 25.4 SEK, where sellers returned and took over. The
stock has since then been trading closer and closer to the bottom of
the trend channel. Right now the stock is using the floor of the
trend channel as a support line. If the stock would close beneath
the trend channel with accompanied high volume it would indicate
a trend reversal. RSI shows that the stock is oversold, however the
MACD line is closing in on the signal-line which it crossed would be
very bullish. Stop loss could be placed beneath the support line 18
SEK. We are technically positive to the stock in the short-term,
somewhat positive in the middle-long term and positive in the long
term.