CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker, Iowa: Nov. 15-19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
1555 Registered Voters

November 15-19, 2015
4.6%
1. Would you say things in this country today are...

Generally headed in the right direction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Off on the wrong track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
3. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

Iowa
4. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters
Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Lindsey Graham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Bobby Jindal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
George Pataki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0%
5.
Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release

6. How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61%

Supporting [Candidate Name] but with some reservations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
Considering [Candidate Name] mainly because you dislike the other choices so
far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

Iowa
7. Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Asked of Trump supporters
His outlook for America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%

He says things others are afraid to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
His personal success story . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hes not a typical politician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
His faith and religious beliefs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
8. Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Asked of Carson supporters
His outlook for America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%

He says things others are afraid to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
His personal success story . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Hes not a typical politician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
His faith and religious beliefs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%
9. Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you
feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Ready
43%
49%
67%
51%
38%
Not ready
38%
39%
15%
28%
46%
Not sure
19%
12%
18%
21%
16%
10.

Iowa
11. If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could
actually do the things theyre talking about?
Very confident he/she could do them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54%

Somewhat confident, and would give him/her a chance to try . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%
Not confident yet, but electing him/her would at least send a message about the
direction we need . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
12. How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to
support for President in 2016?
A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Somewhat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Not at all . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
13. Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Favor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%

Iowa
14. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants?
Illegal immigrants...
Fill jobs Americans

wont do
Drive down
Americans wages
Are generally
hard-working people
Have broken the law
and should be
penalized or
deported
Harm national
security
Agree
Disagree
45%
55%
81%
19%
63%
37%
89%
11%
88%
12%
15.

16.

17. On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on
which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Immigration
Matters of faith and
religion
Handling ISIS
Same sex marriage
Must agree with you

61%
Okay with some

differences
39%
39%
71%
54%
61%
29%
46%

Iowa
18.

19.

20. Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Invite
36%
52%
40%
44%
34%
44%
44%
Not Invite
64%
48%
60%
56%
66%
56%
56%
21. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
22. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*

Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Questions marked with an asterisk are only asked for respondents who had not answered in previous waves.
Earlier responses were used where available.

Iowa
23. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
24. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .10%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
25. Are you male or female?

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52%
26. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%

Iowa
27. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
28. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

Iowa
1. Direction of country
Would you say things in this country today are...
Gender
Generally headed in the right direction
Off on the wrong track
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
21%
71%
8%
23%
72%
5%
20%
69%
10%
11%
83%
6%
21%
74%
4%
22%
70%
8%
28%
60%
12%
21%
71%
7%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,554)
(741)
(813)
(274)
(270)
(643)
(367)
(1,486)
(10)
(13)
(44)

Iowa
2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
59%
13%
9%
8%
10%
1%
64%
12%
5%
8%
9%
1%
54%
15%
12%
8%
10%
1%
55%
21%
10%
8%
5%
0%
52%
16%
15%
7%
9%
2%
60%
10%
8%
10%
11%
1%
67%
11%
3%
7%
10%
1%
59%
13%
9%
8%
9%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,555)
(741)
(814)
(274)
(270)
(644)
(367)
(1,487)
(10)
(13)
(44)

Iowa
3. 2016 Primary Turnout

In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Gender
Democratic
Republican
Neither
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
33%
34%
17%
16%
30%
40%
18%
12%
36%
29%
17%
19%
29%
30%
12%
30%
28%
33%
18%
21%
34%
36%
20%
10%
37%
35%
16%
12%
32%
34%
18%
16%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,555)
(741)
(814)
(274)
(270)
(644)
(367)
(1,487)
(10)
(13)
(44)

Iowa
4. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
5%
19%
2%
21%
4%
0%
0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
2%
11%
2%
30%
0%
6%
19%
1%
24%
3%
0%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
12%
0%
32%
0%
5%
19%
4%
18%
5%
0%
0%
2%
4%
1%
0%
2%
9%
3%
28%
1%
3%
4%
0%
23%
4%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
3%
0%
0%
62%
1%
4%
26%
1%
21%
1%
0%
0%
0%
7%
0%
0%
3%
7%
5%
25%
0%
7%
20%
2%
23%
6%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
14%
1%
23%
0%
5%
19%
4%
18%
3%
0%
0%
3%
1%
1%
0%
2%
13%
1%
31%
1%
5%
18%
2%
21%
4%
0%
0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
2%
11%
2%
30%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(657)
(371)
(286)
(80)
(114)
(297)
(166)
(630)
(0)
(6)
(21)
5.

Held for future release.

Iowa
6. Enthusiasm for First Choice

How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
61%
35%
4%
65%
34%
2%
55%
38%
7%
78%
18%
4%
60%
35%
5%
58%
39%
3%
57%
38%
5%
61%
35%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(653)
(370)
(283)
(79)
(114)
(295)
(165)
(626)
(0)
(6)
(21)

Iowa
7. Favorite Trump Characteristic

Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Gender
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
Hes not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
30%
40%
1%
28%
0%
32%
37%
0%
31%
0%
28%
44%
2%
25%
1%
31%
45%
0%
24%
0%
33%
50%
0%
17%
0%
30%
40%
1%
29%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(118)
(80)
100%
(197)
(69)
(51)
(189)
(49)
(29)
(0)
(1)
(8)

Iowa
8. Favorite Carson Characteristic

Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
20%
18%
2%
29%
31%
24%
18%
1%
27%
30%
14%
18%
2%
33%
32%
18%
23%
2%
24%
33%
18%
19%
2%
29%
32%
100%
100%
100%
(53)
100%
(69)
100%
(122)
(3)
(30)
(58)
(31)
(116)
(0)
(0)
(6)

Iowa
9. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ben Carson

Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
43%
38%
19%
45%
41%
14%
41%
35%
25%
42%
43%
14%
58%
30%
12%
42%
37%
22%
36%
44%
21%
43%
38%
18%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(619)
(350)
(269)
(76)
(110)
(284)
(149)
(594)
(0)
(6)
(20)

Iowa
10. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Donald Trump

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
49%
39%
12%
57%
28%
15%
38%
52%
10%
65%
22%
12%
42%
50%
8%
48%
40%
13%
48%
37%
16%
49%
38%
13%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(647)
(364)
(283)
(80)
(114)
(293)
(160)
(620)
(0)
(6)
(21)

Iowa
11. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ted Cruz

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
67%
15%
18%
78%
10%
12%
53%
23%
24%
70%
14%
16%
67%
24%
9%
66%
13%
21%
68%
13%
19%
68%
15%
17%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(627)
(356)
(271)
(76)
(114)
(287)
(150)
(601)
(0)
(6)
(20)
10

Iowa
12. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Marco Rubio

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
51%
28%
21%
52%
31%
18%
50%
25%
25%
28%
53%
19%
46%
26%
28%
57%
23%
20%
54%
27%
19%
51%
28%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(631)
(356)
(274)
(76)
(113)
(289)
(152)
(605)
(0)
(6)
(20)
11

Iowa
13. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Jeb Bush

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
38%
46%
16%
35%
50%
15%
42%
40%
18%
19%
77%
4%
38%
47%
15%
43%
38%
19%
39%
44%
18%
37%
46%
16%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(634)
(358)
(276)
(76)
(113)
(292)
(153)
(609)
(0)
(6)
(20)
14.

15.

16.

12

Iowa
17. Confidence in Candidate Choice

If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could actually do the things theyre talking about?
Gender
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
54%
43%
3%
60%
38%
2%
46%
50%
4%
79%
19%
1%
49%
47%
4%
51%
47%
2%
50%
46%
4%
55%
42%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(654)
(371)
(284)
(79)
(114)
(295)
(166)
(627)
(0)
(6)
(21)
13

Iowa
18. Paris Attacks Effect on Vote

How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to support for President in 2016?
Gender
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
21%
22%
20%
36%
18%
21%
21%
40%
26%
23%
19%
32%
26%
18%
3%
52%
23%
19%
18%
41%
17%
23%
24%
36%
27%
25%
23%
26%
22%
22%
20%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(658)
(371)
(287)
(80)
(114)
(298)
(166)
(631)
(0)
(6)
(21)
14

Iowa
19. Troops to Fight ISIS

Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Gender
Favor
Oppose
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
74%
26%
76%
24%
72%
28%
49%
51%
85%
15%
79%
21%
67%
33%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(639)
(362)
(278)
(71)
(114)
(295)
(159)
(614)
(0)
(6)
(19)
15

Iowa
20. Agree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants? Illegal immigrants...
Gender
Fill jobs Americans wont do
Drive down Americans wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
45%
81%
63%
89%
88%
39%
84%
64%
93%
91%
52%
75%
57%
81%
80%
22%
81%
55%
91%
88%
36%
87%
63%
88%
94%
50%
78%
62%
88%
87%
50%
78%
61%
86%
80%
44%
81%
61%
88%
87%
(658)
(371)
(287)
(80)
(114)
(298)
(166)
(631)
(0)
(6)
(21)
16

Iowa
21. Disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Gender
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
55%
19%
37%
11%
12%
60%
16%
34%
7%
8%
46%
23%
39%
17%
17%
78%
19%
45%
9%
12%
64%
13%
37%
12%
6%
48%
21%
34%
10%
12%
48%
18%
36%
14%
17%
54%
18%
37%
11%
12%
(658)
(371)
(287)
(80)
(114)
(298)
(166)
(631)
(0)
(6)
(21)
22.

23.

17

Iowa
24. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Immigration

On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
61%
39%
66%
34%
53%
47%
54%
46%
53%
47%
62%
38%
66%
34%
60%
40%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(646)
(371)
(276)
(79)
(114)
(295)
(158)
(619)
(0)
(6)
(21)
18

Iowa
25. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Matters of faith and religion

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
39%
61%
38%
62%
40%
60%
57%
43%
42%
58%
32%
68%
41%
59%
40%
60%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(647)
(368)
(279)
(79)
(114)
(295)
(159)
(621)
(0)
(6)
(20)
19

Iowa
26. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Handling ISIS

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
71%
29%
73%
27%
69%
31%
41%
59%
67%
33%
76%
24%
80%
20%
71%
29%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(650)
(370)
(281)
(79)
(114)
(296)
(161)
(623)
(0)
(6)
(21)
20

Iowa
27. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Same sex marriage

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
54%
46%
55%
45%
52%
48%
59%
41%
52%
48%
49%
51%
62%
38%
54%
46%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(646)
(369)
(277)
(79)
(114)
(295)
(157)
(619)
(0)
(6)
(20)
21

Iowa
28.

29.

30.

31.

32.

33.

34.

35.

22

Iowa
36. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Donald Trump

Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
36%
64%
44%
56%
27%
73%
39%
61%
34%
66%
36%
64%
35%
65%
36%
64%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,229)
(599)
(630)
(171)
(207)
(540)
(311)
(1,171)
(6)
(7)
(45)
23

Iowa
37. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ben Carson

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
52%
48%
59%
41%
45%
55%
41%
59%
58%
42%
53%
47%
51%
49%
51%
49%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,215)
(589)
(626)
(167)
(207)
(527)
(313)
(1,158)
(6)
(6)
(44)
24

Iowa
38. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ted Cruz

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
40%
60%
52%
48%
30%
70%
34%
66%
45%
55%
41%
59%
40%
60%
39%
61%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,216)
(589)
(627)
(167)
(208)
(527)
(315)
(1,160)
(6)
(6)
(44)
25

Iowa
39. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Marco Rubio

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
44%
56%
50%
50%
39%
61%
31%
69%
48%
52%
47%
53%
43%
57%
43%
57%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,206)
(582)
(624)
(160)
(207)
(527)
(312)
(1,150)
(6)
(6)
(44)
26

Iowa
40. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Jeb Bush

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
34%
66%
33%
67%
35%
65%
15%
85%
34%
66%
40%
60%
34%
66%
33%
67%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,208)
(588)
(620)
(167)
(206)
(531)
(304)
(1,152)
(6)
(6)
(44)
27

Iowa
41. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Hillary Clinton

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
44%
56%
34%
66%
53%
47%
50%
50%
38%
62%
42%
58%
47%
53%
44%
56%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,200)
(586)
(614)
(167)
(205)
(520)
(307)
(1,143)
(6)
(7)
(44)
28

Iowa
42. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Bernie Sanders

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
44%
56%
40%
60%
48%
52%
44%
56%
39%
61%
46%
54%
43%
57%
45%
55%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(1,203)
(591)
(613)
(167)
(207)
(520)
(309)
(1,146)
(6)
(6)
(44)
29

Iowa Likely Republican Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
658 Likely Republican Caucus Voters

November 15-19, 2015
6.2%
1. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
5%
19%
2%
21%
4%
0%
0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
2%
11%
2%
30%
0%
2%
12%
0%
41%
5%
0%
0%
0%
4%
0%
0%
2%
7%
3%
23%
0%
8%
25%
4%
11%
4%
0%
0%
2%
1%
1%
0%
1%
14%
1%
29%
0%
3%
14%
1%
3%
4%
0%
0%
2%
0%
2%
0%
2%
13%
1%
53%
0%
3%
18%
2%
30%
3%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
2%
5%
2%
32%
0%
8%
19%
3%
12%
5%
0%
0%
2%
1%
1%
0%
2%
17%
1%
28%
1%
6%
23%
3%
23%
4%
0%
0%
2%
4%
1%
0%
2%
6%
2%
25%
0%
5%
11%
2%
18%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
20%
0%
37%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(657)
(232)
(340)
(52)
(331)
(310)
(368)
(236)
Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
5%
19%
2%
21%
4%
0%
6%
19%
1%
24%
3%
0%
5%
19%
4%
18%
5%
0%
3%
4%
0%
23%
4%
0%
4%
26%
1%
21%
1%
0%
7%
20%
2%
23%
6%
0%
5%
19%
4%
18%
3%
0%
6%
19%
3%
21%
5%
0%
3%
14%
0%
21%
2%
0%
continued on the next page . . .

continued from previous page

Age group
Gender
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
0%
1%
2%
1%
0%
2%
11%
2%
30%
0%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
1%
12%
0%
32%
0%
0%
2%
4%
1%
0%
2%
9%
3%
28%
1%
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
3%
0%
0%
62%
1%
0%
0%
7%
0%
0%
3%
7%
5%
25%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
14%
1%
23%
0%
0%
3%
1%
1%
0%
2%
13%
1%
31%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
2%
12%
2%
27%
0%
0%
1%
6%
1%
0%
2%
6%
0%
43%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(657)
(371)
(286)
(80)
(114)
(297)
(166)
(520)
(122)

2. Enthusiasm for First Choice

How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Ideology
Enthusiastic
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
61%
35%
4%
74%
22%
4%
54%
44%
2%
58%
38%
4%
69%
29%
2%
53%
41%
5%
62%
35%
3%
58%
38%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(653)
(230)
(338)
(52)
(329)
(308)
(367)
(234)
Gender
Enthusiastic
Tea Party
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
61%
35%
4%
65%
34%
2%
55%
38%
7%
78%
18%
4%
60%
35%
5%
58%
39%
3%
57%
38%
5%
61%
36%
4%
59%
37%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(653)
(370)
(283)
(79)
(114)
(295)
(165)
(517)
(121)

3. Favorite Trump Characteristic

Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
30%
40%
1%
28%
0%
23%
41%
0%
36%
0%
27%
41%
0%
32%
0%
26%
38%
2%
34%
0%
35%
43%
0%
21%
0%
35%
40%
2%
23%
0%
26%
34%
0%
40%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(52)
(99)
100%
(197)
(107)
(86)
(92)
(86)
(28)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
30%
40%
1%
28%
0%
32%
37%
0%
31%
0%
28%
44%
2%
25%
1%
31%
45%
0%
24%
0%
33%
50%
0%
17%
0%
24%
40%
1%
35%
1%
47%
41%
0%
12%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(118)
(80)
100%
(197)
(69)
(51)
(140)
(52)
(49)
(29)

4. Favorite Carson Characteristic

Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
20%
18%
2%
29%
31%
22%
16%
1%
32%
29%
26%
20%
1%
20%
33%
15%
17%
2%
37%
29%
19%
20%
1%
20%
39%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(61)
(58)
(83)
100%
(122)
(27)
(85)
(8)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Age group
(27)
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
20%
18%
2%
29%
31%
24%
18%
1%
27%
30%
14%
18%
2%
33%
32%
18%
23%
2%
24%
33%
20%
21%
2%
23%
34%
100%
100%
100%
(53)
100%
(69)
100%
(122)
(3)
(30)
(58)
(31)
(99)
(17)

5. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ben Carson

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
43%
38%
19%
43%
43%
14%
44%
36%
20%
48%
37%
15%
39%
39%
23%
49%
32%
19%
33%
45%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(218)
(330)
100%
(619)
(317)
(289)
(345)
(225)
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Tea Party
(47)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
43%
38%
19%
45%
41%
14%
41%
35%
25%
42%
43%
14%
58%
30%
12%
42%
37%
22%
36%
44%
21%
43%
39%
18%
44%
34%
22%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(619)
(350)
(269)
(76)
(110)
(284)
(149)
(492)
(115)

6. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Donald Trump

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
49%
39%
12%
46%
39%
15%
46%
41%
13%
69%
29%
2%
58%
29%
13%
39%
49%
12%
43%
44%
13%
57%
31%
12%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(647)
(225)
(335)
(52)
(327)
(303)
(359)
(235)
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
49%
39%
12%
57%
28%
15%
38%
52%
10%
65%
22%
12%
42%
50%
8%
48%
40%
13%
48%
37%
16%
45%
42%
13%
65%
23%
12%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(647)
(364)
(283)
(80)
(114)
(293)
(160)
(511)
(121)

7. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ted Cruz

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
67%
15%
18%
83%
11%
6%
62%
15%
23%
81%
10%
9%
53%
21%
26%
66%
16%
18%
70%
15%
15%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(221)
(331)
100%
(627)
(320)
(290)
(348)
(226)
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Tea Party
(47)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
67%
15%
18%
78%
10%
12%
53%
23%
24%
70%
14%
16%
67%
24%
9%
66%
13%
21%
68%
13%
19%
68%
14%
18%
65%
18%
17%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(627)
(356)
(271)
(76)
(114)
(287)
(150)
(498)
(116)

8. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Marco Rubio

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
51%
28%
21%
44%
32%
24%
57%
26%
17%
48%
34%
18%
54%
23%
23%
47%
30%
23%
57%
26%
17%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(225)
(330)
100%
(631)
(317)
(297)
(354)
(227)
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Tea Party
(48)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
51%
28%
21%
52%
31%
18%
50%
25%
25%
28%
53%
19%
46%
26%
28%
57%
23%
20%
54%
27%
19%
56%
25%
19%
29%
43%
28%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(631)
(356)
(274)
(76)
(113)
(289)
(152)
(503)
(115)

9. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Jeb Bush

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
38%
46%
16%
29%
62%
9%
45%
35%
20%
28%
55%
17%
49%
35%
16%
38%
47%
14%
40%
44%
16%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(223)
(336)
100%
(634)
(317)
(301)
(356)
(226)
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Tea Party
(47)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
38%
46%
16%
35%
50%
15%
42%
40%
18%
19%
77%
4%
38%
47%
15%
43%
38%
19%
39%
44%
18%
40%
45%
16%
31%
49%
20%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(634)
(358)
(276)
(76)
(113)
(292)
(153)
(507)
(116)
10

10. Confidence in Candidate Choice

If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could actually do the things theyre talking about?
Ideology
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
54%
43%
3%
63%
35%
2%
48%
50%
3%
57%
38%
5%
64%
34%
2%
44%
52%
4%
55%
43%
2%
52%
44%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(654)
(231)
(338)
(52)
(330)
(308)
(367)
(234)
Gender
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet
Tea Party
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
54%
43%
3%
60%
38%
2%
46%
50%
4%
79%
19%
1%
49%
47%
4%
51%
47%
2%
50%
46%
4%
54%
44%
2%
48%
46%
6%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(654)
(371)
(284)
(79)
(114)
(295)
(166)
(518)
(121)
11

11. Paris Attacks Effect on Vote

How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to support for President in 2016?
Ideology
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
21%
22%
20%
36%
20%
19%
17%
45%
22%
22%
23%
33%
32%
26%
23%
19%
23%
17%
20%
40%
21%
26%
20%
33%
21%
20%
20%
40%
22%
23%
22%
32%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(658)
(232)
(340)
(52)
(331)
(311)
(369)
(236)
Gender
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all
Tea Party
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
21%
22%
20%
36%
18%
21%
21%
40%
26%
23%
19%
32%
26%
18%
3%
52%
23%
19%
18%
41%
17%
23%
24%
36%
27%
25%
23%
26%
20%
23%
21%
36%
29%
18%
16%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(658)
(371)
(287)
(80)
(114)
(298)
(166)
(520)
(123)
12

12. Troops to Fight ISIS

Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Ideology
Favor
Oppose
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
74%
26%
77%
23%
72%
28%
73%
27%
76%
24%
73%
27%
77%
23%
70%
30%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(639)
(216)
(336)
(52)
(319)
(304)
(353)
(233)
Gender
Favor
Oppose
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
74%
26%
76%
24%
72%
28%
49%
51%
85%
15%
79%
21%
67%
33%
74%
26%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(639)
(362)
(278)
(71)
(114)
(295)
(159)
(503)
(121)
13

13. Agree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Ideology
(Weighted N)
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
45%
81%
63%
89%
88%
36%
89%
51%
87%
92%
47%
77%
67%
89%
85%
50%
71%
66%
78%
73%
35%
88%
57%
93%
93%
52%
73%
64%
82%
80%
43%
79%
58%
84%
84%
43%
82%
68%
92%
89%
(658)
(232)
(340)
(52)
(331)
(311)
(369)
(236)
Gender
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
45%
81%
63%
89%
88%
39%
84%
64%
93%
91%
52%
75%
57%
81%
80%
22%
81%
55%
91%
88%
36%
87%
63%
88%
94%
50%
78%
62%
88%
87%
50%
78%
61%
86%
80%
45%
80%
64%
89%
87%
37%
80%
47%
82%
84%
(658)
(371)
(287)
(80)
(114)
(298)
(166)
(520)
(123)
14

14. Disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Ideology
(Weighted N)
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
55%
19%
37%
11%
12%
62%
10%
44%
13%
6%
51%
22%
31%
10%
14%
45%
29%
34%
20%
26%
63%
11%
39%
6%
5%
47%
27%
35%
17%
19%
55%
20%
39%
15%
14%
56%
17%
31%
7%
10%
(658)
(232)
(340)
(52)
(331)
(311)
(369)
(236)
Gender
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
55%
19%
37%
11%
12%
60%
16%
34%
7%
8%
46%
23%
39%
17%
17%
78%
19%
45%
9%
12%
64%
13%
37%
12%
6%
48%
21%
34%
10%
12%
48%
18%
36%
14%
17%
53%
19%
34%
10%
12%
62%
19%
50%
16%
15%
(658)
(371)
(287)
(80)
(114)
(298)
(166)
(520)
(123)
15

15. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Immigration

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
61%
39%
65%
35%
58%
42%
62%
38%
67%
33%
54%
46%
54%
46%
69%
31%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(646)
(225)
(337)
(51)
(325)
(305)
(358)
(235)
Gender
Must agree with you
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
61%
39%
66%
34%
53%
47%
54%
46%
53%
47%
62%
38%
66%
34%
62%
38%
58%
42%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(646)
(371)
(276)
(79)
(114)
(295)
(158)
(509)
(122)
16

16. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Matters of faith and religion

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
39%
61%
55%
45%
31%
69%
48%
52%
29%
71%
48%
52%
24%
76%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(228)
(335)
100%
(647)
(323)
(308)
(360)
(234)
Gender
Must agree with you
Tea Party
(49)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
39%
61%
38%
62%
40%
60%
57%
43%
42%
58%
32%
68%
41%
59%
41%
59%
28%
72%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(647)
(368)
(279)
(79)
(114)
(295)
(159)
(512)
(120)
17

17. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Handling ISIS

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
71%
29%
74%
26%
71%
29%
61%
39%
72%
28%
70%
30%
69%
31%
72%
28%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(650)
(228)
(338)
(51)
(328)
(307)
(366)
(236)
Gender
Must agree with you
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
71%
29%
73%
27%
69%
31%
41%
59%
67%
33%
76%
24%
80%
20%
71%
29%
77%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(650)
(370)
(281)
(79)
(114)
(296)
(161)
(513)
(122)
18

18. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Same sex marriage

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
54%
46%
78%
22%
44%
56%
64%
36%
45%
55%
69%
31%
35%
65%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(228)
(336)
100%
(646)
(324)
(306)
(360)
(234)
Gender
Must agree with you
Tea Party
(49)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
54%
46%
55%
45%
52%
48%
59%
41%
52%
48%
49%
51%
62%
38%
57%
43%
39%
61%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(646)
(369)
(277)
(79)
(114)
(295)
(157)
(512)
(119)
19

19. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Donald Trump

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
59%
41%
56%
44%
59%
41%
75%
25%
67%
33%
52%
48%
54%
46%
67%
33%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(642)
(225)
(333)
(51)
(320)
(306)
(357)
(232)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
59%
41%
64%
36%
52%
48%
68%
32%
55%
45%
57%
43%
60%
40%
56%
44%
73%
27%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(642)
(367)
(275)
(80)
(112)
(290)
(160)
(511)
(116)
20

20. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ben Carson

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
83%
17%
85%
15%
85%
15%
87%
13%
80%
20%
86%
14%
80%
20%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(230)
(323)
100%
(629)
(324)
(289)
(354)
(223)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
(49)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
83%
17%
90%
10%
75%
25%
71%
29%
80%
20%
90%
10%
80%
20%
82%
18%
89%
11%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(629)
(358)
(272)
(76)
(113)
(278)
(162)
(500)
(115)
21

21. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ted Cruz

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
73%
27%
83%
17%
70%
30%
88%
12%
56%
44%
75%
25%
71%
29%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(230)
(326)
100%
(632)
(323)
(292)
(355)
(224)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
(49)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
73%
27%
83%
17%
59%
41%
72%
28%
67%
33%
74%
26%
74%
26%
73%
27%
70%
30%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(632)
(359)
(273)
(76)
(113)
(279)
(164)
(505)
(111)
22

22. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Marco Rubio

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
68%
32%
64%
36%
73%
27%
68%
32%
68%
32%
63%
37%
78%
22%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(228)
(319)
100%
(623)
(320)
(286)
(355)
(216)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
(48)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
68%
32%
74%
26%
61%
39%
54%
46%
63%
37%
74%
26%
69%
31%
72%
28%
50%
50%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(623)
(350)
(272)
(71)
(113)
(277)
(162)
(499)
(109)
23

23. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Jeb Bush

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
45%
55%
36%
64%
50%
50%
35%
65%
55%
45%
45%
55%
45%
55%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(216)
(330)
100%
(622)
(311)
(294)
(345)
(225)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
(48)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
45%
55%
41%
59%
50%
50%
22%
78%
42%
58%
51%
49%
47%
53%
46%
54%
40%
60%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(622)
(356)
(266)
(76)
(111)
(281)
(153)
(500)
(107)
24

24. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Hillary Clinton

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
7%
93%
1%
99%
10%
90%
6%
94%
9%
91%
8%
92%
8%
92%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(215)
(317)
100%
(605)
(311)
(278)
(336)
(217)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
(46)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
7%
93%
8%
92%
7%
93%
16%
84%
11%
89%
6%
94%
3%
97%
7%
93%
5%
95%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(605)
(350)
(255)
(76)
(111)
(268)
(150)
(484)
(106)
25

25. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Bernie Sanders

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
10%
90%
4%
96%
11%
89%
7%
93%
12%
88%
11%
89%
8%
92%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(215)
(318)
100%
(607)
(310)
(280)
(336)
(218)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
(47)
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
10%
90%
9%
91%
10%
90%
5%
95%
16%
84%
9%
91%
8%
92%
8%
92%
12%
88%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(607)
(351)
(256)
(76)
(111)
(269)
(151)
(485)
(106)
26

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker, Iowa: Nov. 15-19

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker, Iowa: Nov. 15-19

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

1555 Registered Voters

1. Would you say things in this country today are...