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AirlineEconomics

Chapter3
SYST461/660 OR750
Spring2010
Sources:
TheGlobalAirlineIndustry
PeterBelobaba,Amedeo Odoni,CynthiaBarnhart,MIT,LibraryofFlightSeries
PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons, 2009,520pages,Hardback
http://ocw.mit.edu/OcwWeb/AeronauticsandAstronautics/1675JSpring2006/CourseHome/index.htm
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Outline
BasicTerminologyandMeasuresforAirlineEconomics
BasicAirlineProfitEquationandAirlineProfitMaximizing
Strategies
TypicalPassengerTripProcess
AirlineMarkets
DichotomyofSupplyandDemand
ODDemand

FactorsaffectingODDemand
TotalTripTimeModel
DemandModels
ODMarketDemandFunctions

AirlineCompetitionandMarketShare
MarketShare/FrequencyShareModel

Price/TimeElasticityofDemand
AirTravelDemandSegments
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CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

FourTypesofTraffic

AirlineTraffic Amountofairlineoutputthatis
actuallyconsumedorsold
4TypesofTraffic

PassengerAircraft

CargoFreighter Aircraft

Passengers

PassengerBags

AirFreight

Mail

FocusofthislessonisonPassengerTraffic
3
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AirlineSystemWideMeasures
Traffic EnplanedPassengers
RPM=RevenuePassengerMile
Onepayingpassengertransported1mile

Yield=RevenueperRPM
Averagefarepaidbypassengers,permileflown

PDEW=Passengertripsperdayeachway
AcommonwaytomeasureODmarketdemand

AirlineDemand=Traffic+RejectedDemand
RejectedDemand orSpill =Passengersunabletofindseatstofly

AirlineSupply
ASM=AvailableSeatMile
Oneaircraftseatflownonemile

UnitCost=OperatingExpenseperASM(CASM)
Averageoperatingcostperunitofoutput

AirlinePerformance
AverageLoadFactor(LF)=RPM/ASM
AverageLegLoadFactor(ALLF)= LF/#ofFlights
AverageNetworkorSystemLoadFactor(ALF)=RPM/ASM

UnitRevenue=Revenue/ASM(RASM)
TotalPassengerTripTime
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CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

USDomesticTraffic (RevenuePassengerMiles)Source:BTS
60

RPMisSeasonal

2005
2006

55

2007
2008

RPM(Billions)

2009
50

45

40

RPM=RevenuePassengerMile
Onepayingpassengertransported1mile
35
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec
5

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

USDomesticSupply(AvailableSeatMiles)Source:BTS
70
2005

ASMisSeasonal

2006
2007

65

2008

ASM(Billions)

2009

60

55

50

ASM=AvailableSeatMile
Oneaircraftseatflownonemile

45
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec
6

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

USDomesticAverageNetworkLoadFactors Source:BTS
90%

ALFisSeasonal

2005

88%
86%
84%

2006

PeaksinRPM,ASM,
andALFinsummermonths
stressthesystem

2007
2008
2009

ALF(%)

82%
80%
78%
76%
74%

AverageNetworkorSystemLoad
Factor(ALF)=RPM/ASM

72%
70%
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec
7

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AverageNetworkLoadFactors(ALF)Source:BTS
80%

75%

AverageLoadFactors

70%
NAS

65%

NYMP
SFMP

60%

55%

AverageNetworkorSystemLoad
Factor(ALF)=RPM/ASM

50%

45%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

8
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

YieldversusDistance
Yield=RevenueperRPM
Averagefarepaidbypassengers,
permileflown

9
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AdditionalAirlineMeasures
AverageStageLength
Averagenonstopflightdistance
AircraftMilesFlown/AircraftDepartures
Longeraveragestagelengthsassociatedwithloweryieldsand
lowerunitcosts(intheory)

AveragePassengerTripLength
Averagedistanceflownfromorigintodestination
RevenuePassengerMiles(RPM)/Passengers
Typicallygreaterthanaveragestagelength,sincesome
proportionofpassengerswilltakemorethanoneflight
(connections)

AverageNumberofSeatsperFlightDeparture
AvailableSeatMiles(ASM)/AircraftMilesFlown
Higheraverageseatsperflightassociatedwithlowerunitcosts
(intheory)
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CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

BasicAirlineProfitEquation
OperatingProfit=
RPMxYield ASMxUnitCost
(Revenue) (OperatingExpenses)
Useofanyoftheindividualtermsasindicatorsof
airlinesuccesscanbemisleading
Q

HighYieldisnotdesirableifALFistoolow
LowunitcostisoflittlevalueifRevenuesareweak
HighALFcanbetheresultofsellingalargeproportionof
seatsatlowfares

Price
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

11

AirlineProfitMaximizingStrategies
IntendedBenefit

StrategyPitfalls

CuttingFares/Yields

StimulateDemand

Thepricecutmustgenerateadisproportional
increaseintotaldemand,elasticdemand

IncreasingFares/Yields

IncreaseRevenue

Thepriceincreasecanberevenuepositiveif
demandisinelastic

IncreaseFlights(ASM)

StimulateDemand

IncreasesOperationalCosts

DecreaseFlights(ASM)

ReduceOperational
Costs

LowerFrequenciesmadeleadtomarketshare
lossesandlostdemand

ImprovePassenger
ServiceQuality

StimulateDemand

IncreasesOperationalCosts

ReducePassenger
ServiceQuality

ReduceOperational
Costs

Excessivecutscanreducemarketshareand
demand

12
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

USAirlineHistoricalReportedProfits/Losses(sourceBTS)
$4,000
Regional
LowCost

$3,000

Network

AIrlineProfit/Losses ($M)

21CarrierTotal
$2,000

$1,000

$
1QTR04

1QTR05

1QTR06

1QTR07

1QTR08

1QTR09

$(1,000)

$(2,000)

$(3,000)
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

13

Figure3.1

TypicalAirPassengerTrip
OutboundAirTrip
GroundEgress
GroundAccess

Origin

Enplanement
Processing

Deplanement
Processing

Deplanement
Processing

Enplanement
Processing

GroundEgress

Destination

GroundAccess
InboundAirTrip
14

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

Enplanement/Deplanement
Enplanement
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

PurchasingTickets
BoardingPass
CheckingBaggage
UndergoingSecurityInspections
BoardingAirplane

Deplanement
1.
2.
3.
4.

ExitingAirplane
ExitingTerminal
BaggageRetrieval
ImmigrationandCustomsInspections
15

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AirlineSupplyTerminology
FlightLeg(orflightsector orflightsegment)
NonstopoperationofanaircraftbetweenAandB,with
associateddepartureandarrivaltimes

Flight
Oneormoreflightlegsoperatedconsecutivelybyasingle
aircraft(usually)andlabeledwithasingleflightnumber
(usually)

Route
Consecutivelinksinanetworkservedbysingleflightnumbers

PassengerPathsorItineraries
CombinationofflightlegschosenbypassengersinaODmarket
tocompleteajourney
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CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AirlineMarkets
Thepurposeofeachairtripistomovefrom
thetrue origintothetrue destinationof
thepassenger.
Thereistypicallyanoutboundandinbound
portionofpassengerairtrips.
IntheAirTransportationSystemTypicallyArrival
=Departures

Direct/ConnectingFlights
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CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

DistinctandSeparateOrigin DestinationMarkets
Figure3.2

CatchmentArea
AirportA
TripOrigin

CatchmentArea
AirportB

AirServicesAtoB
AirServicesBtoA
AirportB

AirportA

Trip
Destination

AirServices
AtoC
AirServices
CtoA

AirportC
CatchmentArea
AirportC

Trip
Destination

CatchmentArea anareawhichcontainsalltheoriginpointsoftravelers
Anairportscatchmentareacanextendforhundredsofkilometersandcanvarywiththe
destinationandtrippurposeofthetraveler
ThemarketforairservicesfromAtoCisdistinctandseparatefromthemarketfromCtoA
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CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AirTravelMarkets
OppositeMarkets passengerswhooriginatetheirtripsfromthe
destinationairportregion.
ParallelMarkets theflightoperationsservingeachparallel
marketcantosomeextentsubstituteforeachother
CityPairMarkets Demandforairtravelbetweentwocities
RegionPairMarkets Demandforairtravelbetweentworegions
ormetropolitanareas
AirportPairMarketsParallel CityPairandRegionPairMarkets
Demandcanbedisaggregatedtodifferentairportsservingthe
citiesorregions
Withtheexistenceofoverlappingairportregions,parallelmarkets,
andthesharingofscheduledairlinesupplyonconnectingflights,
evendistinct andseparate origindestinationmarketsare
interrelated
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CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

ConnectingversusDirectTraffic
1st Leg

2nd Leg

Ground
Access

Enplanement
Processing
Enplanement
Processing

Ground
Access

Deplanement
Processing

Deplanement
Processing

Ground
Egress

Ground
Egress

20
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AirlineMarketsExample
Market

Itinerary

Segment
/Leg

Airline

Seats

PAX

Connecti
ngPAX

OD
Traffic

%
Connecting

Load
Factor

Daily
Freq

IADBOS

IADBOS

IADBOS

Airline1

100

50

N/A

50

N/A

.5

IADBOS

IADPHLBOS

IADPHL

Airline1

150

100

75

25

75%

.67

IADPHLBOS

PHLBOS

Airline1

100

75

N/A

75

N/A

.75

IADJFKBOS

IADJFK

Airline2

200

150

50

100

50%

.75

IADJFKBOS

JFKBOS

Airline2

100

50

N/A

50

N/A

.5

IADBOS

IADBOS

IADBOS

Airline2

100

75

N/A

75

N/A

.75

IADPIT

IADBOSPIT

IADBOS

Airline2

200

100

25

75

50%

.5

IADBOSPIT

BOSPIT

Airline2

150

75

N/A

75

N/A

.5

IADBOS

Forthisexamplenoadditionalpassengersareboardingattheconnection

FrequencyShareforIADBOS
Airline1=2/6=33%,Airline2=4/6=67%

MarketShareforIADBOS
Airline1=((2x50)+(4x75))/((2x50)+(4x75)+(2x50)+(3x75)+(1x75))=50%

Market ODTrafficforIADBOS=
((2x50)+(4x75)+(2x50)+(3x75)+(1x25))=750
Segment orLeg ODSupplyforIADBOS=
((2x100)+(3x100)+(1x200))=700
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CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AirlineMarketsExample
Market

Itinerary

Segment
/Leg

Airline

Seats

PAX

Connecti
ngPAX

OD
Traffic

%
Connecting

Load
Factor

Daily
Freq

IADBOS

IADBOS

IADBOS

Airline1

100

50

N/A

50

N/A

.5

IADBOS

IADPHLBOS

IADPHL

Airline1

150

100

75

25

75%

.67

IADPHLBOS

PHLBOS

Airline1

100

75

N/A

75

N/A

.75

IADJFKBOS

IADJFK

Airline2

200

150

50

100

50%

.75

IADJFKBOS

JFKBOS

Airline2

100

50

N/A

50

N/A

.5

IADBOS

IADBOS

IADBOS

Airline2

100

75

N/A

75

N/A

.75

IADPIT

IADBOSPIT

IADBOS

Airline2

200

100

25

75

50%

.5

IADBOSPIT

BOSPIT

Airline2

150

75

N/A

75

N/A

.5

IADBOS

Forthisexamplenoadditionalpassengersareboardingattheconnection

RPM=(2x50x1)+(4x100x1)+(4x75x1)+(2x150x1)+(2x50x1)+(3x75x1)+
(1x100x1)+(1x75x1)=1600

ASM= (2x100x1)+(4x150x1)+(4x100x1)+(2x200x1)+(2x100x1)+
(3x100x1)+(1x200x1)+(1x150x1)=2450
ALLFforIADBOS=(2x.5)+(3x.75)+(1x.5)/6=.625
ALFforthisnetwork forthisexampleallflightlegsare1unitofdistance
=RPM/ASM=1600/2450=.653
22

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

IllustrationofDirectversusConnectingPassengers

TopODMarketsbyVolume
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

23

OriginDestinationMarketDemand
Airtraveldemandisdefinedforanorigindestination
market,notaflightleginanairlinenetwork
NumberofpersonswishingtotravelfromoriginAto
destinationBduringagiventimeperiod
IncludesbothpassengersstartingtheirtripatAandthose
completingtheirtravelbyreturninghome(oppositemarkets)
Typically,volumeoftravelmeasuredinonewaypassengertrips
betweenAandB,perhapssummedoverbothdirections

Airlinenetworkscreatecomplicationsforanalysisof
marketdemandandsupply
NotallABpassengerswillflyonnonstopflightsfromAtoB,as
somewillchooseonestoporconnectingpaths
AnysinglenonstopflightlegABcanalsoservemanyotherOD
markets,aspartofconnectingormultiplestoppaths
24
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

DichotomyofDemandandSupply
Inherentinabilitytodirectlycomparedemandandsupply
atthemarket level
DemandisgeneratedbyODmarket,whilesupplyis
providedasasetofflightlegdeparturesoveranetworkof
operations
OneflightlegprovidesjointsupplyofseatstomanyOD
markets
Numberofseatsontheflightisnotthesupply toasinglemarket
Notpossible(orrealistic)todeterminesupplyofseatstoeach OD

SingleODmarketservedbymanycompetingairlinepaths
TabulationoftotalODmarkettrafficrequiresdetailedticketcoupon
analysis

25
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

ImplicationsforAnalysis
Dichotomyofairlinedemandandsupplycomplicatesmanyfacets
ofairlineeconomicanalysis
Difficult,intheory,toanswerseeminglysimple economic
questions,forexample:
Becausewecannotquantifysupply toanindividualODmarket,we
cannotdetermineifthemarketisinequilibrium
CannotdetermineiftheairlinesservicetothatODmarketis
profitable,orwhetherfaresaretoohigh ortoolow
Seriousdifficultiesinprovingpredatorypricingagainstlowfarenew
entrants,givenjointsupplyofseatstomultipleODmarketsand
inabilitytoisolatecostsofservingeachODmarket

Inpractice,assumptionsaboutcostandrevenueallocationare
required:
Estimatesofflightand/orrouteprofitabilityareopentoquestion

26
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

DemandModels
Demandmodelsaremathematicalrepresentationsofthe
relationshipbetweendemandandexplanatoryvariables:
Basedonourassumptionsofwhataffectsairtraveldemand
Canbelinear(additive)modelsornonlinear(multiplicative)
Modelspecificationreflectsexpectationsofdemandbehavior
(e.g.,whenpricesrise,demandshoulddecrease)

Aproperlyestimateddemandmodelallowsairlinesto
moreaccuratelyforecastdemandinanODmarket:
Asafunctionofchangesinaveragefares
Givenrecentorplannedchangestofrequencyofservice
Toaccountforchangesinmarketoreconomicconditions

27
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AirlineDemand
DemandforcarrierflightfofcarrieriinODmarketjisafunction
of:
Characteristicsofflightf
Departuretime,traveltime,expecteddelay,aircrafttype,inflightservice,etc.
Price

Characteristicsofcarrieri
Flightscheduleinmarketj(frequency,timetable),airportamenitiesofcarrier,
frequentflyerplanattractiveness,etc.

Marketcharacteristics
Distance,businesstravelbetweentwocities,tourismappeal

Characteristics(includingprice)ofallrivalproducts:
Otherflightsoncarrieri
Flightsonothercarriersinmarketj(carrierandflightcharacteristics)
Competingmarkets products(otherairportsservingcitypairinj,other
transportmodes,etc.)

28
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

TotalTripTimefromPointAtoB
Nexttopriceofairtravel,mostimportantfactoraffectingdemand
forairlineservices:

Accessandegresstimesto/fromairportsatoriginanddestination
Predepartureandpostarrivalprocessingtimesateachairport
Actualflighttimesplusconnectingtimesbetweenflights
Scheduledisplacementorwaittimesduetoinadequatefrequency

Totaltriptimecapturesimpactsofflightfrequency,pathquality
relativetoothercarriers,othermodes.
Reductionintotaltriptimeshouldleadtoincreaseintotalairtravel
demandinODmarket
Increasedfrequencyandnonstopflightsreducetotaltriptime
Increasesintotaltriptimewillleadtoreduceddemandforair travel,
eithertoalternativemodesorthenotravel option

29
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

TotalTripTimeandFrequency
T=t(fixed)+t(flight)+t(schedule displacement)
Fixedtimeelementsincludeaccessandegress,airportprocessing
Flighttimeincludesaircraftblock timesplusconnectingtimes
Scheduledisplacement=(Khours/frequency),meaningitdecreases
withincreasesinfrequencyofdepartures

Thismodelisusefulinexplainingwhy:
Nonstopflightsarepreferredtoconnections(lowerflighttimes)
Morefrequentserviceincreasestraveldemand(lowerschedule
displacementtimes)
Frequencyismoreimportantinshorthaulmarkets(schedule
displacementisamuchlargerproportionoftotalT)
Manyconnectingdeparturesthroughahubmightbebetterthan1
nonstopperday(lowertotalTfortheaveragepassenger)

30
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

TotalTripTimeExample

WithUniformPassengerDemand
FlighttimeshighlightedinYellow

waittimes
1flight
2flights
3flights
4flights

0600 0700 0800 0900 1000


10 9
8
7
6
4
3
2
1
0
3
2
1
0
1
2
1
0
1
2

1100
5
1
2
1

1200
4
2
2
0

1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 Average
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6 4.47
3
4
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4 2.12
1
0
1
2
2
1
0
1
2
3 1.41
1
2
1
0
1
2
1
0
1
2 1.06

IncreasedFrequencyreducesPassengerTotalTripTimeandIncreasesDemand

31
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

SimpleMarketDemandFunction
MultiplicativemodelofdemandfortravelODper
period:
D=MxPaxTb
where:M=marketsizingparameter(constant)thatrepresents
underlyingpopulationandinteractionbetweencities
P=averagepriceofairtravel
T=totaltriptime,reflectingchangesinfrequency
a,b =priceandtimeelasticities ofdemand

WecanestimatevaluesofM,a,andbfromhistorical
datasampleofD,P,andTforsamemarket:
Previousobservationsofdemandlevels(D)under
differentcombinationsofprice(P)andtotaltraveltime(T)
32
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

MultipleDemandSegments
Business PersonalAir
AirTravel
Travel
Demand
Demand
FirstClass
Dfb
Dfp
CoachClass
Dcb
Dcp
DiscountClass
Ddb
Ddp

33
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AirlineCompetition
Airlinescompeteforpassengersandmarketsharebased
on:
Frequencyofserviceanddeparturescheduleoneachroute
served
Pricecharged,relativetootherairlines,totheextentthat
regulationallowsforpricecompetition
Qualityofserviceandproductsofferedairportandinflight
serviceamenitiesand/orrestrictionsondiscountfareproducts

Passengerschoosecombinationofflightschedules,prices
andproductqualitythatminimizesdisutilityofairtravel:
Eachpassengerwouldliketohavethebestserviceonaflight
thatdepartsatthemostconvenienttime,forthelowestprice

34
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

MarketShare/FrequencyShare
RuleofThumb:Withallelseequal,airlinemarket
shareswillapproximatelyequaltheirfrequencyshares.
ButthereismuchempiricalevidenceofanScurve
relationshipasshownonthefollowingslide:
Higherfrequencysharesareassociatedwith
disproportionatelyhighermarketshares
Anairlinewithmorefrequencycapturesallpassengers
wishingtoflyduringperiodswhenonlyitoffersaflight,
andsharesthedemandwishingtodepartattimeswhen
bothairlinesofferflights
Thus,thereisatendencyforcompetingairlinestomatch
flightfrequenciesinmanynonstopmarkets,toretain
marketshare
35
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

MSvs.FSSCurveModel

36
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

SCurveModelFormulation

37
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

AirlinePricesandODMarkets
Likeairtraveldemand,airlinefaresaredefinedforanOD
market,notforanairlineflightleg:
AirlinepricesfortravelABdependonODmarketdemand,
supplyandcompetitivecharacteristicsinthatmarket
NoeconomictheoreticalreasonforpricesinmarketABtobe
relatedtopricesAC,basedstrictlyondistancetraveled
CouldbethatpriceACisactuallylowerthanpriceAB
Thesearedifferentmarketswithdifferentdemand
characteristics,whichmightjusthappentosharejointsupplyon
aflightleg

Dichotomyofairlinedemandandsupplymakesfindingan
equilibriumbetweenpricesanddistancesmoredifficult.

38
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

PriceElasticityofDemand
Definition:Percentchangeintotaldemandthatoccurs
witha1%increaseinaveragepricecharged.
Priceelasticityofdemandisalwaysnegative:
A10%priceincreasewillcauseanX%demanddecrease,allelse
beingequal(e.g.,nochangetofrequencyormarketvariables)
Businessairtraveldemandisslightlyinelastic(0>Ep>1.0)
Leisuredemandforairtravelismuchmoreelastic(Ep<1.0)
Empiricalstudieshaveshowntypicalrangeofairlinemarket
priceelasticities from0.8to2.0(airtraveldemandtendstobe
elastic)
ElasticityofdemandinspecificODmarketswilldependonmix
ofbusinessandleisuretravel

39
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

ImplicationsforAirlinePricing
Inelastic(0.8)businessdemandforairtravelmeansless
sensitivitytopricechanges:
10%priceincreaseleadstoonly8%demandreduction
Totalairlinerevenuesincrease,despitepriceincrease

Elastic(1.6)leisuredemandforairtravelmeansgreater
sensitivitytopricechanges
10%priceincreasecausesa16%demanddecrease
Totalrevenuesdecreasegivenpriceincrease,andviceversa

Recentairlinepricingpracticesareexplainedbyprice
elasticities:
Increasefaresforinelasticbusinesstravelerstoincrease
revenues
Decreasefaresforelasticleisuretravelerstoincreaserevenues
40
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

TimeElasticityofDemand
Definition:PercentchangeintotalODdemandthatoccurs
witha1%increaseintotaltriptime.
Timeelasticityofdemandisalsonegative:
A10%increaseintotaltriptimewillcauseanX%demand
decrease,allelsebeingequal(e.g.,nochangeinprices)
Businessairtraveldemandismoretimeelastic(Et<1.0),as
demandcanbestimulatedbyimprovingtravelconvenience
Leisuredemandistimeinelastic(Et>1.0),aspricesensitive
vacationersarewillingtoendurelessconvenientflighttimes
Empiricalstudiesshownarrowerrangeofairlinemarkettime
elasticities from0.8to1.6,affectedbyexistingfrequency

41
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

ImplicationsofTimeElasticity
Businessdemandrespondsmorethanleisuredemandto
reductionsintotaltraveltime:
Increasedfrequencyofdeparturesismostimportantwayforan
airlinetoreducetotaltraveltimeintheshortrun
Reducedflighttimescanalsohaveanimpact(e.g.,usingjetvs.
propelleraircraft)
Morenonstopvs.connectingflightswillalsoreduceT

Leisuredemandnotnearlyastimesensitive:
Frequencyandpathqualitynotasimportantasprice

Butthereexistsasaturationfrequencyin eachmarket:
Pointatwhichadditionalfrequencydoesnotincreasedemand

42
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
465
495
530
585
650
680
705
740
810
1895

0
45
90
135
180
225
270
315
360
405
450
495
540
585
630
675
720
765
810
855
905
950
1010
1070
1165
1220
1285
1365
1465
1575
1740
2340

PassengerDemand
1200

1000

800
PassengerDemand

1000

800

PassengerDemand

1200

400

CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH


0
15
30
45
60
75
90
105
120
135
150
165
180
195
210
225
240
260
275
290
305
320
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355
370
390
410
425
440
460
500
630
1140

0
35
70
105
140
175
210
245
280
315
350
385
420
455
490
525
560
595
630
665
700
735
770
805
840
875
910
955
1015
1070
1195
1385
1775

PassengerDemand

ExamplesofPriceElasticity
Source:BTS

2000

EWRORD(BTS20082QTR)

EWRPIT(BTS20082QTR)

250

1800

1600

200

1400

400

2000

1400
150

100

600

50

200

PassengerFare

PassengerFare

EWRBOS(BTS20082QTR)
1600

EWRSFO(BTS20082QTR)

1800

1600
1400

1200

1000
800

600
600

400

200
200

0
0

PassengerFare
PassengerFare

43

AirTravelDemandSegments
Passenger:
PriceSensitivity
Low

High

High

Type1

Type2

Type3

Type4

Passenger:
Time
Sensitivity

Low

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CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

DifferentTypesofPassengers
Type1 TimesensitiveandinsensitivetoPrice
BusinessTravelers,whomightbewillingtopaypremiumpricefor
extraamenities
Travelflexibilityandlastminuteseatavailabilityextremelyimportant

Type2 TimesensitiveandPricesensitive
SomeBusinessTravelers,mustmaketrip,butareflexibletosecure
reducedfare
Cannotbookfarenoughinadvanceforlowestfares

Type3 PricesensitiveandinsensitivetoTime
ClassicLeisureorvacationtravelers,willingtochangetimeanddayof
travelandairporttofindseatatlowestpossiblefare
Willingtomakeconnections

Type4 InsensitivetobothTimeandPrice
Fewpassengerswhoarewillingtopayforhighlevelsofservice.
CanbecombinedwithType1
45
CENTER FOR AIR TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS RESEARCH

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