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Table of Contents
***Mexico Economy..............................................................................4
Mexico Economy Advantage Frontline..................................................................5
Mexico Econ Adv - Exts #1 - High now.................................................................6
Mexico Econ Adv - Exts #2 - Resilient................................................................10
***US/Sino War..................................................................................11
US-Sino War Frontline......................................................................................... 12
***US/Russian Relations.....................................................................16
US-Russian Relations Frontline...........................................................................17
***Democracy....................................................................................19
Democracy Advantage Frontline........................................................................20
Democracy Adv - Exts #1 - Unsustainable.........................................................24
Democracy Adv - Exts #2 - Unstable.................................................................25
Democracy Adv - Exts #3 - Promoting Democracy Fails.....................................26
***Arctic Conflict................................................................................28
Arctic Conflict Advantage Frontline....................................................................29
Arctic Adv - Exts #1 - No conflict coming...........................................................32
Arctic Adv - Exts #2 - No Escalation...................................................................34
Arctic Adv - Exts #4 - Ice melting.......................................................................36
***Bioterror.......................................................................................37
Bioterrorism Advantage Frontline.......................................................................38
Bioterror Adv - Exts #1 - No attack - Al Qaeda...................................................39
***Disease.........................................................................................40
Disease Advantage Frontline.............................................................................. 41
Disease Adv - Exts #1 - Vaccines check.............................................................44
Disease Adv - Exts #2 - No extinction................................................................45
Disease Adv - Exts #3 - Diseases inevitable......................................................46
***Biodiversity...................................................................................47
Biodiversity Advantage Frontline........................................................................48
Biodiversity Adv - Exts #1 - No impact...............................................................50
***Amazon Defo.................................................................................51
Amazon Deforestation Advantage Frontline.......................................................52
Amazon Defo Adv Exts - #1 - Brazil...................................................................55
Amazon Defo Adv Exts - #2 - Warming..............................................................56
Amazon Defo Adv Exts #3 - Amazon resilient....................................................57
***Global Warming.............................................................................58
Global Warming Advantage Frontline.................................................................59
Warming Adv - Exts #1 - Not anthropogenic......................................................63
Warming Adv - Exts #2 - Temps not increasing..................................................64
Warming Exts - CO2 Good - Agriculture..............................................................65
***Agriculture....................................................................................66
Agriculture Advantage Frontline.........................................................................67
Agriculture Adv - Exts #1 - Ag production high now...........................................69
Agriculture Adv - Exts #2 - Alternate Causes to Food Security..........................70
Agriculture Adv - Exts #3 - Alt Causes to Food Prices........................................71
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***Mexico Economy
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Mexicos auto industry has experienced tremendous growth since the mid1980s. Last year, 19% of all light vehicles produced in North America
originated in Mexico (see table 1). That is up sharply from 20 years ago and puts
Mexico ahead of Canada in terms of the number of vehicles produced Table 1:
Distribution of light vehicle production in North AmericaOn May 30, a panel of distinguished experts gathered at an event hosted by the Detroit branch
of the Chicago Fed to discuss factors behind Mexicos growth as a vehicle producer.Most of the presentations are available here.
Also, see a recent Chicago Fed Letter on the same topic.Mexico has a long history of vehicle production; by the late-1930s Ford, GM, and Chrysler were
producing vehicles in the country. Over the years ,
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higher than most developing countries in Asia, the competitive edge in that Far
East region has gradually declined when aggregate costs are considered. The close
proximity to the U.S., which allows greater logistical flexibility in response to
short-term demand fluctuations, adds to Mexicos luster in the eyes of large
manufacturers.
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now changes are under way, in Mexicos factories, its financial sector and
even its oil and gas fields, that augur well for a very different decade . Latin
Americas perennial underachiever grew faster than Brazil last year and will repeat the trick this year, with a rate of about 4% against less than 2% in Brazil. Mr Pea is aiming to
get annual growth up to 6% before his six-year presidency is over. By the
end of this decade Mexico will probably be among the worlds ten biggest
economies; a few bullish forecasters think it might even become the
largest in Latin America. How did Mexico achieve such a turnround ? Chinas
cut-price export machine sucked billions of dollars of business out of Mexico. But now Asian wages and transport
costs are rising and companies are going west. The China factor is changing big-time, says Jim ONeill, the
Goldman Sachs economist who in 2001 coined the BRICs acronymBrazil, Russia, India and Chinamuch to
Mexicos irritation. China is no longer as cheap as it used to be. According to HSBC, a bank, in 2000 it cost just
$0.32 an hour to employ a Chinese manufacturing worker, against $1.51 for a Mexican one. By last year Chinese
wages had quintupled to $1.63, whereas Mexican ones had risen only to $2.10 (see chart 1). The minimum wage in
Shanghai and Qingdao is now higher than in Mexico City and Monterrey, not least because of the rocketing
renminbi. Right next door Hauling
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at the real numbers, Mexico is startlingly good, says Louise Goeser, the regional head of Siemens, a German
multinational. Siemens employs 6,000 people at 13 factories and three research centres around Mexico. From its recently enlarged
facility in Quertaro, in central Mexico, surge-arrestors and transformers trundle up to warehouses in the central United States in
two days. Ms Goeser says that Mexican workers are well qualified as well as cheap: more engineers graduate in Mexico each
year than in Germany, she points out. In Aguascalientes, not far away, Nissan is building a $2 billion factory. Together with an
existing facility it will turn out a car nearly every 30 seconds. About 80% of the parts in each car are made in Mexico. By using local
suppliers, the company is armoured against currency fluctuations, says Jos Luis Valls, head of Nissan Mexico. If you are
localised, you can navigate through floods and storms. If you depend on imports of components, you are very fragile. In nearby
Guanajuato Mazda and Honda are building factories; Audi is constructing a $1.3 billion plant in Puebla. This year Mexico will turn
out roughly 3m vehicles, making it the worlds fourth-biggest auto exporter. When the new factories are up and running, capacity
will be 4m. According to projections by HSBC, in six years time the United States will be more dependent on imports from Mexico
than from any other country (see chart 2). Soon Hecho en Mxico will become more familiar to Americans than Made in China.
On the opposite side of Cuernavaca from Nissans gigantic factory, Antonio Snchez plays a smaller role in Mexicos motor business.
At his carwash customers queue to pay 46 pesos ($3.60) for their cars to gleam in the ever-present sun. Mr Snchez seems to have
enough business to open another branch, but credit is scarce and expensive. He explains that banks tend to charge interest rates of
25% or more and demand collateral worth three times the value of the loan. Its complicated, expensive and the risk is too much,
he says. Mexican businesses have been fighting with one hand tied behind their backs, thanks to a chronic credit drought. Lending
is equivalent to 26% of GDP, compared with 61% in Brazil and 71% in Chile. The drought started with the tequila crisis of 1994,
when a currency devaluation triggered the collapse of the countrys loosely regulated banking system. Banks spent the best part of a
decade dealing with their dodgy legacy assets and were nervous about making new loans. But things are looking up. Inflation, now
running at 4.6%, has been well under control for ten years. The conservatively run Mexican subsidiaries of foreign banks such as
BBVA, Citigroup and Santander are all rated higher than their American or European parent companies. Now they are starting to
turn on the credit tap. Loans to companies are growing at 12% a year and to individuals at 23%. Given that many enterprises are
informal, many of these personal loans probably go to businesses, according to David Olivares of Moodys, a ratings agency.
There are many financing opportunities in Mexico that are not tapped, says Agustn Carstens, the governor of the
central bank. This gives Mexico an advantage over other Latin American countries that are deep in debt. Five to six
consecutive years of loan growth, coupled with macroeconomic stability, would increase Mexicos annual growth
rate by half a percentage point, the central bank estimates. As credit starts flowing, so could oil. Since striking black gold
Mexico has been one of the worlds ten biggest oil producers. The
revenues of Pemex, the state-run oil and gas monopoly, provide about a
third of the governments income.
in the 1970s,
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agreements with 44 countries, including NAFTA, the North American Free Trade Agreement signed
with the United States and Canada, in effect since 1994. Since then, the average trade tariff fell from 27 percent to 6.9
percent. The opening policy also included the financial and foreign direct investment liberalization of sectors not considered as
strategic for the nation. Mexico was also able to make a strategic change in its
changes, the country is now one of the worlds most important export
platforms and an ideal base from which to supply international markets ,
Rupert Stadler, chairman of the Board of Management of Audi AG, told the Financial Times in September 2012. Today, this nation
of 114 million people is the leading world exporter of flat screen TVs and the second leading exporter of refrigerators. It is also the
major supplier of medical devices to the U.S. market, the eighth producer and the fourth exporter of new vehicles, as well as the
main supplier of auto parts to the U.S. market, where 11 percent of all cars and light trucks are produced in Mexico. Moreover, of
total U.S. imports, 24 percent of automotive products, 23 percent of chemicals and 21 percent of electronics are coming from the
other side of the countrys southern border. Global automakers have announced new direct
"Made in China" is giving way to "Hecho en Mexico," attendees at the Arizona-Mexico Commission's plenary session heard Thursday.
Risingfuel
costs,coupledwithhigherlaborcostsinChina,makeNorthAmericamoreappealingto
manufacturingcompanies, said Christopher Wilson, associate of the Mexico Institute for the Woodrow Wilson Center.That is a financial
boon for the United States - and especially for states along the Mexican border - becausetheshortersupplychainmeansbigger
profits, he told the crowd of Arizona and Sonora business leaders and politicians meeting in Scottsdale.For every dollar spent on manufacturing in
China, the U.S. earns 4 cents, Wilson said. If that company manufactures in Mexico, the earnings are 40 cents. Mexico's economy is
growing faster than the U.S. economy, and although ours is much larger, "we have
a chance to tap into that growing economy,"
pact among the three main political parties could have a positive effect on Mexico's credit rating, making it more attractive to foreign investors."The
hypothesis of saying 'We have to go to China' is fading," said Juan Carlo Briseo, who is with the Mexican Ministry of Economy's Pro Mexico
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medical devices, electronics and aerospace components. Now China is casting a curious eye on the
country to see what it's doing right, Briseo said.In Sonora, where the average age is 25, aerospacemanufacturinghastakenoffin
thepastcoupleofyearswithbigcompaniesreadyingtoannouncefurtherexpansionofexisting
operations.Sonorahasfiveinternationalairports,twowithcargocapacity,Briseonoted,makingit
anaturalattraction.Its proximity to Arizona as an export entryway is a selling point, he said.The overview was presented in anticipation of
today's sessions, when committees will meet to map out or approve joint plans and ventures in the areas of economic development, energy, real estate
and infrastructure.Just a little over a decade ago, the focus on these commission meetings was to school Mexico on how to do business with the United
States, said Bruce Wright, associate vice president for university research at the University of Arizona."How refreshing for you in the Sonora business
world to hear us talking about how to do business with Mexico," he said.The Arizona-Mexico Commission meeting is being hosted by Arizona Gov. Jan
Brewer and Sonora Gov. Guillermo Padres.The two governors are expected to address the crowd today and will host a joint news conference.
Spencer, 2013 (Linda, writes for SEMA, worldwide automotive company, Considering Mexico
Strong Growth and Fatter Pocketbooks Warrant a Closer Look at the Potential in Latin
Americas Second-Largest Economy, March, 2013, http://www.sema.org/semaenews/2013/13/opportunities-in-mexico-potential-in-latin-americas-second-largest-economy)
Harbeck
i ts economy grew 4% last yearquicker than even Brazils . Credit is increasingly
available, inflation is under control and more of the population is joining
the middle class, according to a new study put out by the Wilson Center
based in Washington, D.C. Sizable Passenger Vehicle Market and Healthy Annual Sales: Mexico has 20
million motor vehicles in circulation, with strong annual sales of about 1
million. Mexicans Love Trucks: Mexican motorists enjoy and use light trucks. Between 20052011, 40% of all vehicles sold
in Mexico were pickups and SUVs. Similar Vehicle Demographics: Many of the vehicles sold in Mexico are the same models
that sell well in the United States. Between 20052011, the best-selling pickups in Mexico were Fords F-150 and F-250, with
232,810 units sold. The Chevrolet Silverado was also a top model, with 164,928 sold during that period. Jeep sales were also strong,
with 145,397 sold between 20052011, and Ford also sold 13,511 Mustangs between those same years. The
country is an
increasingly important gateway to the rest of Latin America. Mexico has freetrade agreements with 44 countriesmore than any other country in the world
including the 2004 North American Free Trade Agreement, which eliminated
most tariffs between Mexico, Canada and the United States. No Argentinian or Brazilian
Tariffs: Among the many trade deals negotiated by Mexico is its most recently modified pact with Argentina, which allows Mexico
to export up to $600 million in Mexican vehicles to that country without tariffs. Mexico also has a free-trade deal with Brazil. Both
Brazil and Argentina are notorious for their high tariffs, but their agreements with Mexico allow vehicles and partsup to a certain
limitto be shipped to those countries tariff free. OEM Production: There
what has been called MEMO [Mexican Moment], as quality, lead times, trust and
currency and political stability are bringing back manufacturing from Asia to
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Mexico . By selling to the vehicle manufacturers Mexican operations, SEMA members can find an additional route to reach
South and Central American markets. There
Mexican market. For the first, you dont even need to leave the United States. The annual SEMA Show, held each year in early
November, draws more than 130,000 visitors, and 25% of all buyers attending the trade-only event come from outside the United
States, including large numbers from Mexico and other Latin American countries. Another first-rate automotive event where
companies should consider exhibiting is the annual PAACE Automechanika show, which will be held July 1012, 2013, at Centro
Banamex in Mexico City. The 2012 event boasted 14% growth, with 541 exhibiting companies from 20 countries and 19,763 visits by
specialized buyers from more than 33 countries. This year, PAACE Automechanika will feature a specialized vehicle area where the
cars will be categorized as Import, Euro, Racing and Classic.
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added value to exports. Sebastian Briozzo, head of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poors for Latin America (the
stock market index tracking Latin American stocks,) said the two countries have very different growth patterns.
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***US/Sino War
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necessarily the new U.S. strategy after the military pullout from Iraq and Afghanistan, but it does unequivocally
signal the shift of Americas attention from Europe and the Middle East to Asia. What follows is Americas new and
firm military restructuring in the region: setting Darwin Port in Australia as the new submarine corps base, rotating
military presence to the Philippines, ushering in the Pentagons global security programs that very specifically
target China. Now the Asian version of missile defense is under intense discussion, reminiscent of the American
plan to create a missile interception network all over Europe a plan that unnerved the worlds other great power,
Russia. Against this tense backdrop, human rights issues are now creating rifts between Washington and Beijing.
After a local police official, Wang Lijun, reportedly sneaked into the U.S. Consulate in Chengdu in early February, the
blind human rights activist Chen Guangcheng sought shelter this week at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. Despite quiet
diplomacy so far, there is little sign that the two nations could realistically reach an agreement about human rights
confrontation like the cold war would risk a huge backlash in China by greatly damaging the better-off Chinese
the
power disparity between Washington and China hasnt significantly
narrowed, regardless of Chinese achievements in the past decades. My view is that
Beijing remains an adolescent power, and should learn how to be a great
power rather than unwisely rushing to any confrontation. Though some Chinese
want the nation to assert itself more forcefully, the huge disparity in power should keep
China in place. China is in no position to challenge the U.S. But China will be more
enthusiastic and straightfoward about addressing and safeguarding its legal interests. Competition
between Washington and Beijing will intensify, but that does not
automatically mean that the relationship will be unmanageable . Lastly, the cycle
people. Such a conflict could ultimately undermine the Communist Partys ruling legitimacy. Second,
of action and reaction has mostly turned out to be fruitful for the U.S. and China. Further competition is promising.
dealings over
many thorny issues have proved that each side wants to handle the
conflict, not escalate it. Chen Guangchengs departure from the U.S. Embassy is telling evidence.
The U.S. doesnt want to put China in a corner, or force Beijing to stand up desperately. The
Neither side wants diplomatic confrontation. Rather, it seems that both sides are struggling to react constructively.
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Chinas increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea is challenging US primacy in the Asia Pacific. Chinese
sailors stand on a fishing vessel setting sail for the Spratly Islands, an archipelago disputed between China and
other countries including Vietnam and the Philippines (Photo: AAP) Even before Washington announced its official
United States has deployed Combat Littoral Ships to Singapore and is negotiating new arrangements for greater
Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, Commander of the US Pacific Command, recently stated, there has also been
it is a strategy of
collaboration and cooperation. However, a review of past USChina military-to-military interaction
criticism that the Rebalance is a strategy of containment. This is not the case
indicates that an agreement to jointly manage security in the South China Sea is unlikely because of continuing
strategic mistrust between the two countries. This is also because the currents of regionalism are growing stronger.
as the East Asia Summit, the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus and the Enlarged ASEAN Maritime Forum.
But they also continue to engage each other on points of mutual interest.
The Pentagon has consistently sought to keep channels of communication open with China through three
established bilateral mechanisms: Defense Consultative Talks, the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement
(MMCA), and the Defense Policy Coordination Talks. On the one hand, these multilateral mechanisms reveal very
little about USChina military relations. Military-to-military contacts between the two countries have gone through
repeated cycles of cooperation and suspension, meaning that it has not been possible to isolate purely military-tomilitary contacts from their political and strategic settings. On the other hand, the channels have accomplished the
following: continuing exchange visits by high-level defence officials; regular Defense Consultation Talks; continuing
working-level discussions under the MMCA; agreement on the 7-point consensus; and no serious naval incidents
since the 2009 USNS Impeccable affair. They have also helped to ensure continuing exchange visits by senior
military officers; the initiation of a Strategic Security Dialogue as part of the ministerial-level Strategic & Economic
Dialogue process; agreement to hold meetings between coast guards; and agreement on a new working group to
despite
ongoing frictions in their relationship, the United States and China will
continue engaging with each other. Both sides understand that military-tomilitary contacts are a critical component of bilateral engagement. Without such interaction
draft principles to establish a framework for military-to-military cooperation. So the bottom line is that,
there is a risk that mistrust between the two militaries could spill over and have a major negative impact on
bilateral relations in general. But strategic mistrust will probably persist in the absence of greater transparency in
military-to-military relations. In sum,
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and some Asian leaders worry Beijing could clash with the world's sitting lone superpower: the United States. A war
between the eagle and the dragon would be "disastrous" for both nations, the Asia-Pacific region, and the entire
globe, Bob Carr, Australian minister for foreign affairs, told a forum Wednesday in Washington. Expert forecasts
that China could challenge America's perch atop the global totem pole are based on even more economic growth in
China and across the Asia-Pacific region. The Obama administration's ongoing shift of U.S. foreign and national
security policies from the Middle East to the Asia-Pacific is based on a belief that much of the history of this century
such predictions might be off the mark, says Carr, who spends ample
The United States dominated much of the 20th
century and the early years of the 21st. But the next 88 years, "might not
belong to anyone," Carr said at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The levers of global
will be written there. But
and economic power are trending toward being more widely dispersed than some experts predict, Carr says. He
U.S.-China war, sounding a much different tone than did Singapore defense chief Ng Eng Hen during an April visit to
Washington. Ng urged increased American engagement in Asia, warning that anything else could spawn deadly
U.S.-China tensions. During an April 4 speech in Washington, Ng called the United States a "resident power" in
increasingly concerned about a U.S.-China war. But Carr, who spent the opening part of his prepared remarks
In discussing this relationship, American public intellectuals have become fond of referencing Thucydides account
of the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta to issue warnings about the risk of conflict, and to offer
advice on how one can best manage the geopolitical tensions that have historically attended the rise of a new great
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as well as their own research into the rise of previous great powers,
Chinese scholars and officials have consistently called for a New Type of
Great Power Relationship ( , xinxing daguo guanxi) between
Washington and Beijing that avoids the tensions that surrounded past
rising powers.[2]
Many of the prescriptions for avoiding conflict call for the two leaders to
spend time, energy, and discussion focused on creating strategic trust
( , zhanlue xinren) in the bilateral relationship.[3] In his February 2012
address in Washington, President Xi Jinping called for the enhancement of mutual trust as the first of four major
principles upon which American and Chinese leaders should base their relationship.[4] In a 2012 Brookings
Institution report, Kenneth Lieberthal and Wang Jisi argue that strategic distrust is rooted in the narrowing gap in
power between the U.S. and China; differences in political traditions and values; and insufficient understanding of
nuclear weapons the only truly inhumane weapon of mass destruction and are of little other use to China. Faced
with U.S. nuclear blackmail in the 1950s, China had no alternative to developing its own nuclear capability so as to
address the real danger of being a target of a nuclear strike. But even so, Beijing vowed that having a nuclear
capability would only serve this single purpose.
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the global strategic stability at large. If this policy serves well its core security interests, why
should Beijing change it?
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***US/Russian Relations
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The relationship today isnt good, but its nowhere near as bad as it could be. As difficult as
things can sometimes be with Moscow and they have been very difficult lately and as
diametrically opposed President Putin and President Obama and their teams seem to
be, fundamentally, Russia and America are not out to get one another . You could imagine a
world in which they were, and it would be a very different and far, far worse world.
Its important to remember that Russia is not our enemy. Only a few years ago, at the
time of the 2009 re-set there were opportunities for cooperation on everything from
security something which we actually started to see with Russian logistical support for
NATO forces in Afghanistan, and which was critical at a time when relations with Pakistan were not good to
Iran to counter-terrorism, anti-narcotics, anti-trafficking, and anti-piracy. And of course, there was the new nuclear treaty.
Thats a huge amount of progress on the security side. On the economic side, we brought Russia into the WTO, another
huge step forward. The strength of the relationship today is still nowhere near where it could or should be.
U.S. trade
with Russia is about forty billion dollars a year, which, for perspective, is less than half of one percent
of total U.S. trade. Its less than two percent of Russias total trade. So the trade relationship is not a major factor in either
countrys economic success. But at the same time, theres
Right now, the U.S.-Russia relationship is caught in a trap of mutual distrust. Both sides
are relatively convinced that theyre talking to the wrong person . The United States
thinks that if they just wait out Putin, or fund some people that might be able to replace him,
then maybe in a couple of years there will be a much better Russian government with which
they can negotiate. On the other side, you have Putin thinking, Im tougher than these guys,
Ive been around longer than these guys, Im just going to embarrass them on one issue after
another and then soon enough I wont have to deal with them.
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But even during the Cold War, when we had two political systems that unequivocally
defined the other as a failure, we still managed to work together in several areas, and
we have many more bilateral ties now.
news/44716-missile-defence-poisoned-us-russia-relations-report.html]
WASHINGTON: Missile defence, an issue that has poisoned US-Russia relations,
could be a "game-changer" that transforms ties if the two sides cooperate
on a shared system, says a report by former top officials from both sides of the Atlantic . Recent
headlines in both countries have been reminiscent of the Cold War, with
the Russians threatening to deploy missiles aimed at countering a
proposed US missile shield, and the Americans responding that they will
build the system, come what may. The planned US shield, endorsed by NATO, would deploy US
interceptor missiles in and around Europe in what Washington says is a layered protection against missiles that
could be fired by countries like Iran. Moscow says this could undermine its security if it
becomes capable of neutralizing Russia's nuclear deterrent. Now an international commission has been working on
the matter for two years that has designed a basic concept for cooperation with the help of military professionals
from both sides.
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***Democracy
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America is deep in debt (Ron Paul) and a fantasy-land candidate who says there's nothing to worry about (almost
other hand, political circumstances make it difficult for one group to gain power, the result is likely to be stalemate.
Either way, it will be difficult for democratic regimes to adopt consistent and effective public policies. Under
under
unfavorable conditions, these regimes will, it is held, be unable either to
protect themselves or serve the common good. The result, then, is likely
favorable conditions, conflict in or paralysis of democratic regimes may not be too serious. But,
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necessary combination of megalomania and messianism, derived from its revolutionary origins. Today's US is
unchallengeable in its techno-military supremacy, convinced of the superiority of its social system, and, since 1989,
no longer reminded - as even the greatest conquering empires always had been - that its material power has limits.
Like President Wilson, today's ideologues see a model society already at work in the US: a combination of law,
liberal freedoms, competitive private enterprise and regular, contested elections with universal suffrage. All that
their own interests first. If they have the power, and the end is considered sufficiently vital, states justify the means
that states could not simply remake the world or abbreviate historical transformations. Nor can they easily effect
social change by transferring institutions across borders. The conditions for effective democratic government are
rare: an existing state enjoying legitimacy, consent and the ability to mediate conflicts between domestic groups.
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Without such consensus, there is no single sovereign people and therefore no legitimacy for arithmetical majorities.
When this consensus is absent, democracy has been suspended (as is the case in Northern Ireland), the state has
"Spreading
democracy" aggravated ethnic conflict and produced the disintegration of
states in multinational and multicommunal regions after both 1918 and
1989. The effort to spread standardised western democracy also suffers a
fundamental paradox. A growing part of human life now occurs beyond the
influence of voters - in transnational public and private entities that have
no electorates. And electoral democracy cannot function effectively
outside political units such as nation-states. The powerful states are therefore trying to
split (as in Czechoslovakia), or society has descended into permanent civil war (as in Sri Lanka).
spread a system that even they find inadequate to meet today's challenges. Europe proves the point. A body such
as the European Union could develop into a powerful and effective structure precisely because it has no electorate
other than a small number of member governments. The EU would be nowhere without its "democratic deficit", and
there can be no legitimacy for its parliament, for there is no "European people". Unsurprisingly, problems arose as
soon as the EU moved beyond negotiations between governments and became the subject of democratic
UK. Other than creating complex problems of deceit and concealment, electoral democracy and representative
assemblies had little to do with that process. Decisions were taken among small groups of people in private, not
very different from the way they would have been taken in non-democratic countries.
In
South Korea, Thailand and the Philippines, however, democracies survived
the crisis intact. Much of the conventional wisdom about the political impact of economic crises may be
wrong. In 46, or half, of the cases we studied, the crisis produced neither a change of
government nor a change of a regime (system of government). In 17 cases, it led to a change
crash of 1997, which brought down the Suharto regime that had ruled Indonesia for more than 30 years.
of government but not of regime. With one exception, all of these changes took place in democratic states as a
(three of which took place in Ecuador) were observed within nine months of the outbreak of the crisis. Among the
fallen were 15 dictatorships, 10 democracies and five semidemocracies regimes that rely on coercion to maintain
power despite having formal democratic institutions. The 10 cases of collapsed democracies suggest that political
the severity of
economic crisis (measured in terms of inflation and negative growth) bore
no relationship to the collapse. Political variables, however, such as
factors, rather than purely economic ones, contributed to the breakdown. In fact,
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And, Democracy collapse doesnt lead to extinction--authoritarian regimes cooperate to solve the same problems
Erdmann et al, 13 [Dr. Gero Erdmann is head of Research Program 1 Legitimacy
and Efficiency of Political Systems and lead research fellow at the GIGA Institute of
African Studies, Andr Bank is a research fellow at the GIGA Institute of Middle East
Studies, Dr. Bert Hoffmann is acting director of the GIGA Institute of Latin American
Studies, Dr. Thomas Richter is a senior research fellow at the GIGA Institute of
Middle East Studies, International Cooperation of Authoritarian Regimes: Toward a
Conceptual Framework, 7/2013, http://www.giga-hamburg.de/dl/download.php?
d=/content/publikationen/pdf/wp229_erdmann-bank-hoffmann-richter.pdf] STRYKER
In politics and political science alike, awareness is growing about the increasing
international influence of authoritarian regimes. The primary focus of attention has been the
neighbor hood policies of Russias post Soviet regime as well as Chinas international political and economic activities. The
scholarly attention has turned away from the international dimension of democratization to address the international dimension of
authoritarian regimes. This new interest drew authors from two strands. First, scholars formerly interested in processes of
2012: 201). Some of the literature main tains a democratizing perspective insofar as it asks how and why some
polit ical party; They exchange ideas on the design of development strategies; And they provide each other with direct
personal advice on how to cope with insurgent forces and how to control Internet usage. While it is obvious that
to
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Since the earliest times, the control of leaders which led to the oppression
of the people has been demonstrated. The concept of authoritarianism developed throughout history
wherein people in various societies lived under the authority of scrupulous people. Even English monarchs in the 15th and 16th
century, when the printing press was realized, compelled restrictive censorship on publishers through a series of limitations such as
licensing, taxation, and seditious libel. Actually, these
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hypotheses have been put forward and tested about the social and political conditions under which democratic
regimes come to be or to endure. A presupposition of most of this research is that
democratic regimes
people are, lets look at some times weve been given a chance to be heard:
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Kapstein, 12 [Ethan, visiting fellow at the Center for Global Development with
expertise in airer trade; inequality and growth; political economy, Why
Democracies Fail: Lessons from Mali? 3/29/12, http://www.cgdev.org/blog/whydemocracies-fail-lessons-mali] STRYKER
The recent coups in the Maldives and Mali against democratically elected
leaders, and the continuing political struggles in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya
following the Arab Spring, are potent reminders that democracy is a
fragile institution. In fact, of the 120 attempts at democratization that have
occurred around the world since 1960, nearly half have been reversed at
some point. The reasons for democratic failure, however, are surprising. In our book, The Fate of Young
Democracies, Nathan Converse and I found that democracies do not fail for the reasons commonly supposed. They
do not generally fail, for example, because of poor economic performance. In fact, the democracies that are
overthrown have, on average, higher growth rates than those that are sustained over long periods of time. Some
recent examples of fast growing democracies that have reversed include Russia, Venezuela, and Thailand. Nor do
democracies reverse while undergoing the process of economic reform. To the contrary, reforms like trade
liberalization and privatization tend to support the democratic process, as they bring forth entrepreneurs who
provide a bulwark against an authoritarian backlash. Finally, democracies are no more likely to be sustained by
adopting parliamentary instead of presidential institutions. Though parliamentary forms of government are often
said to help prevent power grabs by the executive branch, prime ministers have proved to be very adept at
commanding powerthink of Vladimir Putinand parliaments are often weak and sharply divided, thus incapable of
First,
young democracies are often weakened by extreme levels of income
inequality. Rising income inequality indicates a dysfunctional democratic
state in which economic power is concentrated in the hands of the few,
rather than one in which economic opportunities are widely shared and
diffused. Second, young democracies that are unable to constrain the
executive branch of powerwhether presidential or parliamentarywill find it difficult to sustain
exercising authority. Why, then, do democracies fail? Our study identified several common factors.
participatory forms of government. The usual red flags here are changesor attempts to changethe constitution,
dominant groupcentralize political power, the outsiders may find they have no alternative but to try and
public goods to a broad spectrum of citizens, and not just to an elite. If democracies are unable or unwilling to meet
these demands, their very raison detre may be called into question.
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countries with weak states that provide insufficient security to their citizens, in countries with incomplete processes
of nation-building, and in countries with poorly developed or skewed economies. Furthermore, while there has been
progress in the participation of women in the political arena, they are still a minority in the power positions of even
and the international organizations that support them, must prepare for the long haul and adopt comprehensive
delivered have as its ultimate goal a democratic outcome? Are the instruments used and procedures followed
democratic? When they are not, democracy support is likely to become problematic.
The premise of
economic development first, democracy later still holds for much of international
assistance. It results, for example, in the promotion of liberal market reforms while
reinforcing systems of autocracy in the process. That countries become economically as
well as politically fit through democracy as argued by the Nobel laureate Armatya Sen - requires a comprehensive
resisting necessary democratic reforms by playing up sentiments against perceived foreign intrusion in violation of
the sovereignty of their countries. It also is often accompanied by double standards since only unfriendly regimes
ought to be comprehensive by balancing the three interlinked objectives of democracy, security and development.
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STRYKER
the United
States has been waging an ideological campaign to spread democracy
around the world, and many of its citizens hope that the campaign will
eventually be victorious. This is not likely to happen. An old proverb says: You
AFTER its victory in the ideological confrontation between two camps during the Cold War,
cannot whistle against the wind; the wind is stronger . One can whistle
the ideological campaigns tune of democracy forcefully, but it will be
silenced by the thunderous storm of the human struggle for selfdetermination. The launching of the ideological campaign is most likely
based on the conviction that the collapse of the Marxist/Communist
Eastern camp during the Cold War proved once and for all the unquestionable
superiority and universal applicability of democracy and its political and
economic institutions. This is not the case . The victory only proved that the
implementation of the Marxist idea failed in the Soviet empire, and the collapse of economies there
did not lead to entrenchment of democracy but to the exercise of selfdetermination by Estonians, Hungarians, Poles, Ukrainians, among others, including Chechens under
Dzhokar Dudayev. Yes, peoples of the Soviet empire did proclaim aspirations for democracy. So did participants in
ethnic conflicts in the former Yugoslavia in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, and so did participants in the
Arab Spring uprisings some two decades later. But neither peoples of the former Soviet empire, nor peoples of
Yugoslavia, nor those in the Arab Spring uprisings aspired to democratic rule. All these peoples aspired to what
Woodrow Wilson advocated during and after World War I: self-determination. He remarked,
No people
must be forced under sovereignty under which it does not wish to live .
President Wilson also wrote in Article 3 of his first draft of the Covenant of the League of Nations: The Contracting
Powers unite in guaranteeing ... territorial adjustments ... as may in the future become necessary by reason of
changes in the present social conditions and aspirations or present social and political relationships,
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***Arctic Conflict
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the Arctic Ocean was covered yearround by ice, creating an impregnable wilderness that humans rarely
negotiated. Today, as the effects of global warming are amplified in the
high north, most of the ocean is open water during the summer and
covered by ice only in the winter. This unexpected transformation has radically altered the stakes for the
JUST a quarter-century ago, and for millenniums before that,
Arctic, especially for the eight nations and indigenous peoples that surround it. But while there has been cooperation on extracting
the regions oil, gas and mineral deposits, and exploiting its fisheries, there has been little effort to develop legal mechanisms to
prevent or adjudicate conflict. The potential for such conflict is high, even though tensions are now low .
Several
countries, along with corporations like ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell,
are preparing to exploit the regions enormous oil and natural gas
reserves. New shipping routes will compete with the Panama and Suez
Canals. Vast fisheries are being opened to commercial harvesting, without
regulation. Coastal areas that are home to indigenous communities are
eroding into the sea. China and the European Union are among non-Arctic governments rushing to assert their
interests in the region. Some states have increased military personnel and equipment there. The most
fundamental challenge for the Arctic states is to promote cooperation and
prevent conflict. Both are essential, but a forum for achieving those goals does not yet exist. In 1996, eight
countries the United States, Russia, Canada, Norway, Finland, Sweden,
Iceland and Denmark (which manages the foreign affairs and defense of
Greenland) and groups representing indigenous peoples established the
Arctic Council to chart the regions future. So far, this high-level forum has
identified sustainable development and environmental protection as
common Arctic issues. But another crucial concern maintaining the peace was
shelved in the talks that led to the councils creation. The fear then, as now, was that
peace implied demilitarization. It doesnt. But if these nations are still too timid to discuss peace in the region when tensions are low,
how will they possibly cooperate to ease conflicts if they arise? Since 2006, each of the Arctic nations has adopted its own security
policy to safeguard its sovereign rights. What they must do now is compare their separate security policies, identify the ways in
which those policies reinforce or conflict with one another, and then balance national interests with common interests. How, for
instance, will each nation position its military and police its territory? How will the Arctic states deal with China and other nations
that have no formal jurisdictional claims but have strong interests in exploiting Arctic resources? How will Arctic and non-Arctic
states work together to manage those resources beyond national jurisdictions, on the high seas and in the deep sea? Without
Whether it is through the Arctic Council or another entity, there needs to be a forum for discussing peace and stability, not just
environmental and economic issues. We need rules of the road to take us safely into the Arctics future .
President
Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, whose economy is reliant on its rich deposits
of oil and natural gas, clearly understands the benefits of a northern sea
route and of the hydrocarbon deposits on his nations continental shelf,
and has emphasized the importance of peace and cooperation in the
Arctic. So have leaders of other Arctic nations. But we have heard virtually
nothing from President Obama, even as he has made the dangers of a
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considering soft security concerns such as environmental pollution resulting from the extraction of raw materials. The threats that
arise for humans from the exceptional climatic situations are pushing actors towards cooperative approaches, too .
Many of
these issues are taken on by the Arctic Council. Founded in 1996, the
Council is a forum to promote coordination among the eight Arctic
countries. Representatives of indigenous peoples have a consultative role.
One concrete result of the Arctic Council is a binding agreement on
maritime search and rescue activities. For 2013, an agreement on standards for oil spill preparedness and response is
expected, which will reinforce the current non-binding offshore oil and gas guidelines. Cooperation among the littoral states is also
advancing in the sensitive area of national sovereign rights .
declaration, the US which has not ratified UNCLO S has signalled its willingness to observe it within the Arctic. What is more, the
coastal states have been collaborating for a long time in the exploration of the sea bed .
no major conflicts among these countries , non- Arctic players will hardly be able to assert
themselves in this context. Potential for conflict The scope of sovereign rights in the maritime
area around the Svalbard archipelago, believed to be rich in oil and gas, is a question that is not easy
to resolve. On the one hand, the archipelago and the surrounding 200-mile zone are an undisputed part of Norwegian territory. On
the other hand, Norwegian sovereignty over the archipelago is substantially limited by the Svalbard Treaty of 1920. All 40 signatory
countries have the right to exploit natural resources and to conduct research. The treaty also states that the archipelago must not
be used for offensive military purposes. Likewise, the right to levy taxes is limited to the administrative requirements of Svalbard. It
was only later under UNCLO S that the EEZ emerged as an institution. Hence, it remains unclear whether the Svalbard Treaty also
applies to this zone. Countries such as Russia, Iceland, and the UK assume this to be the case. Norway takes the opposite view.
Nevertheless, Oslo has not declared a full EEZ in this area, but established a fisheries protection zone instead. It concedes fishing
Russia, Iceland, and other nations. This has never been explicitly
acknowledged by these countries, but is usually accepted in practice. The modus
privileges to
vivendi has so far provided stability as it has served Russian interests too, with the fisheries protection zone granting privileges to
Russian fishing interests over other signatory states. Moreover ,
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reference to the Treaty. Due to the variety of the players concerned and the absence of international rules, the issue can ultimately
only be resolved at a political level. Interests and positions diverge concerning the issue of sovereignty over the new sea routes as
well. Again, even the Arctic coastal states do not agree on the legal status:
waterways for which no authorisation for transit is necessary. For the time being, no escalation of this conflict is to be expected,
since the commercial navigation routes are competing with non-Arctic sea routes and the use of these routes will correlate with the
extent of their opening and the stability of the agreed arrangements.
The exaggerated fears of a coming Arctic war with Russia have largely receded since
a media freakout last year. But that isnt stopping Russia from building new bases in the frigid north.
Canada is also splurging on Arctic drones. Less assertive is the United States, which is boosting
Coast Guard operations near Alaska. On Monday, Russian Security Council chief Nikolai Patrushev said Russia is
planning to build a string of new naval bases in the Arctic. The bases are intended to be key
double-purpose sites for warships in remote areas of the Arctic Seas. Theres no word on what those double
purposes might be. Russias plans to create a combined-arms force for the Arctic is also still on track, according to
The Arctic has become a new frontier in international relations, but fear of
potential conflict in the resource-rich region is overblown, say experts. For long a
mystery because of its general impenetrability, melting ice caps are revealing more and more
of the Arctic region to scientists, researchers and industry. Climate change
experts can take a more precise look at a what global warming is doing to
the planet, shipping trade routes once considered unthinkable are now
possible, and governments and businesses are in thrall to the potential
exploitation of coal, iron, rare earths and oil. The interest is reflected in the growing list of those
wanting to have a foot in the Arctic council, a forum of eight countries with territory in the polar region. While the US, Denmark,
Iceland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Russia and Canada form the council, the EU commission, China, India, South Korea and Japan
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North Pole and the Chinese have the largest foreign embassy in
Reykjavik. Meanwhile, South Korea's president visited Greenland last year
and shipping hubs like Singapore are holding Arctic conferences. The
interest is being spurred by melting icebergs. Last year saw a record low
of multi-year ice - permanent ice - in the polar sea. This means greater shipping and mineral
to the
exploitation potential. There were 37 transits of the North East Passage (NEP), running from the Atlantic to the Pacific along the top
of Russia, in 2011. This rose to 47 in 2012. For a ship travelling from the Netherlands to China, the route around 40 percent shorter
than using the traditional Suez Canal. A huge saving for China, where 50 percent of its GDP is connected to shipping. Russia is also
keen to exploit the route as the rise in temperatures is melting the permafrost in its northern territory, playing havoc with its roads
and railways.
Arctic
holds 13 percent of undiscovered oil and 30 percent of undiscovered gas
supplies. Greenland is already at the centre of political tussle between the
EU and China over future exploitation of its rare earths - used in a range
of technologies such as hybrid cars or smart phones. "The biggest adventure will be the
Arctic destination. There is a lot of valuable goods that should be taken out of nature up there," he said. This resource
potential - although tempered by the fact that much of it is not
economically viable to exploit - has led to fears that the Arctic region is
ripe for conflict. But this is nonsense, says Nil Wang, a former Danish
admiral and Arctic expert.
of the Arctic is not how it is traversed but what will be taken out of it. According to the US Geological Survey (2009), the
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mostly code for China. As a follower of Arctic news, I see this every day, all the time: eight articles last week, five
Sometimes this
future conflict is portrayed as a political battle, sometimes military, but the
portrayals of the states involved are cartoonish, Cold-War-ish...its all good guys and bad guys.
Im convinced that this is nonsense, and I feel vindicated when I see the extent to
which these countries' militaries collaborate in the high North. From last week's
meeting of all eight Arctic nations' military top brass (excepting only the US; we were represented by
General Charles Jacoby, head of NORAD and USNORTHCOM) to Russia-Norway collaboration on
search & rescue; from US-Canada joint military exercises to US-Russia shared
research in the Barents...no matter where you look, the arc of this relationship bends
more already this week from the Moscow Times, Scientific American or what-have-you.
towards cooperation . But there's a bigger misconception that underlies the predictions of future Arctic
conflict that we read every week. This is the (usually) unspoken assumption that the
governments of these states are capable of acting quickly, unilaterally and secretly to
pursue their interests in the Arctic . False. This idea that some state might manage a political
or military smash-and-grab while the rest of us are busy clipping our fingernails or
walking the dog is ridiculous. The overwhelming weight of evidence suggests that the
governments of the Arctic states are, like most massive organizations, bureaucratic messes. Infighting between
federal agencies is rampant all around, as are political shoving matches between federal and
state/provincial/regional governments. Money is still scarce, and
backed up by much:
Canada is engaged in a sad debate over the downgrading of the proposed Nanisivik
port; the United States icebreaker fleet is barely worth mentioning and shows little sign of new life in the near-term
Russias talk
about a greater Arctic presence has been greatly inflated for the sake of the recent elections. In a more
general sense, we have viciously polarized governments in the US and, to a lesser extent,
future; US Air Force assets are being moved 300+ miles south from Fairbanks to Anchorage; and
Canada, as well as numerous hotter wars elsewhere that will take the lions share of our blood and treasure
before the Arctic gets a drop of either.
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military aspects, legal environment and energy policy. Speaking about power politics the U.S.
military planners currently consider the Arctic to be an area of low conflict. Swedish
experts agree with American conclusions. Background paper Military Capabilities in the Arctic (SIPRI, 2012) says,
that power projection into the Arctic in 2010-2011 was very limited. The Arctic states maintain military presence in
should remain so. From the legal point of view the status of the Arctic is already specified in the provisions of the
international law. The Arctic Council and the Ilulissat Declaration (Greenland, 2008) provide a solid institutional and
legal foundation for responsible management of the Arctic by the five coastal states. Under the Ilulissat declaration
any demarcation issues in the Arctic should be resolved on a bilateral basis between contesting parties. Besides, all
members of the Arctic Council except the U.S. ratified an important treaty -
Tchilingarov, the veteran explorer who led the expedition to plant a Russian flag on the seabed at the North Pole in
2007.
The
Russian diplomat said there have been no conflicts involving territorial
boundaries in the Arctic. "Concerning the continental shelf, no overlapping bids have been involved thus far,
dispute, Russia's special envoy and representative in the Arctic Council, Anton Vasilyev, said in an interview with Interfax.
Vasilyev said. Russia filed its bid in 2001 and is gathering additional scientific proof to support it. We have done enormous work in
institutions ,
specially set up for this purpose, Vasilyev, who spoke at the Arctic Future Symposium, organized by the
International Polar Foundation jointly with the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, told Interfax .
there is no
conflict between the countries that have filed their bids for the continental
shelf already, or will probably do so, because according to the rules all of
us abide by, we are to prove the same thing, he said. Our proof and the
proof to be provided by our partners, involves an enormous amount of work, including the gathering of
scientific evidence which lies in the realm of logic and natural sciences physics, geology, etc." "But most
coldest places on Earth. "Contrary to some media reports and unconscientiously written commentaries,
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He suggest the actors in the region all want to create a business environment,
which requires stable politics and security. But he concedes there are "risk factors." These include
Wang.
"ambiguous communication" (so that there is an impression of a security conflict), and possible fishing wars as fish
stocks move further north because of rising temperatures into areas with no fishing rules. A fall-out in relations
between the China and the US could also impact the Arctic region but the
conflict ." As for the EU, it has been seeking to gain a foothold in the region. It
spends millions of euros each year on research, environmental and social
programmes in the Arctic area.
Russias
claims are validated, the find will increase the nation's claims on the continental
shelf by 1.2 million square kilometers (460,000 square miles). This area is said to hold some nine or
ten trillion tons of hydrocarbon reserves. There are five Arctic-bordering countries that have
laid claim to the vast deposits of natural resources deep below the regions frigid
waters: Russia, the United States (via Alaska), Canada, Norway and Denmark (via Greenland). The United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) gives each nation a ten-year period to register a claim to their
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Dyer 12 [Gwynne Dyer is a London-based independent journalist whose articles are published in 45
countries. Sorry, generals: No war over the warming Arctic August 4, 2012
http://www.thespec.com/opinion-story/2251611-sorry-generals-no-war-over-the-warming-arctic
accessed on August 3, 2013] JAKE LEE
Arctic resources.
The ice is melting fast, and it was all the usual stuff about how there will
be big strategic conflicts over the seabed resources especially oil and
gas that become accessible when its gone. The media always love
conflict, and now the Cold War is long gone, theres no other potential
military confrontation between the great powers to worry about. Governments
around the Arctic Ocean are beefing up armed forces for the coming struggle, so where are the flashpoints
and what are the strategies? Its great fun to speculate about possible
wars. In the end I didnt do the interview because the Skype didnt work, so I didnt get the chance to rain on their parade. But
heres what I would said to the Russians. There are three separate resources in the Arctic.
On the surface, there are the sea lanes that are opening up to commercial
traffic along the northern coasts of Russia and Canada. Under the seabed,
there are potential oil and gas deposits that can be drilled once the ice
retreats. And in the water in between, there is the planets last unfished
ocean. The sea lanes are mainly a Canadian obsession, because the
government believes the North-West Passage that weaves between
Canadas Arctic islands will become a major commercial artery. Practically
every summer Prime Minister Stephen Harper travels north to declare his
determination to defend Canadas Arctic sovereignty from well, its not
clear from exactly whom, but its a great photo op. Canada is getting new
Arctic patrol vessels and building a deep-water naval port and Arctic warfare training
Russian television contacted me the other night asking me to go on a program about the race for
centre in the region, but its all much ado about nothing. The Arctic Ocean will increasingly be used as a shortcut between the North
Atlantic and the North Pacific, but the shipping will not go through Canadian waters. Russias Northern Sea Route will get the
boundaries. There are only four areas where the boundaries are disputed. Two are between Canada and its eastern and western
neighbours in Alaska and Greenland, but there is zero likelihood of a war between Canada and the United States or Denmark (which
is responsible for Greenlands defence).
now is the fact that the ice IS melting, which will ultimately raise sea
levels worldwide by seven metres. But thats a problem for another day.
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***Bioterror
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Biological Weapons Biological weapons are toxic materials produced from pathogenic organisms (usually microbes) or artificially
manufactured toxic substances that are used to intentionally interfere with the biological processes of a host. These substances
work to kill or incapacitate the host. Biological weapons may be used to target living organisms such as humans, animals or
vegetation. They may also be used to contaminate nonliving substances such as air, water and soil. There are a variety of
microorganisms that can be used as biological weapons. Agents are commonly chosen because they are highly toxic, easily
obtainable and inexpensive to produce, easily transferable from person to person, can be dispersed in aerosol form, or have no
typically bacteria,
countermeasures do not yet exist, the US government has recently established the Biomedical Advanced Research and
Development Authority (BARDA). The existence of BARDA creates a situation in which products arising from research, primarily
sponsored by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Department of Defense (DoD), can be prioritized and then developed for
Soligenix, Inc.
is addressing the development of products and technologies that can be
used to protect against several biological threats considered agents of
bioterrorism, consistent with biological warfare threats and emerging diseases that the National Institute of Allergy and
Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a division of the NIH, has identified as high priorities. Soligenix is developing
several potential products to prevent morbidity and mortality due to the
threat of biological toxins for which preventive vaccination is the most
feasible means to protect a susceptible population. This approach is being taken because the
large-scale manufacturing and clinical evaluation, and ultimately acquisition of the product for the SNS.
known mechanism of protection against toxin exposure is mediated through antibodies in the serum or present on mucosal surfaces
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al
Qaeda has been doing its utmost to attack the United States and has not
pulled any punches. Because of this, we do not believe it possesses the ability to increase this effort
conduct an attack in order to prove his credibility as al Qaeda's new leader. Our belief, as noted above, is that
beyond where it was prior to bin Laden's death. As to the pressure on al-Zawahiri, we noted in December 2007 that
the al Qaeda core had been under considerable pressure to prove itself relevant for several years and that, despite
this pressure, had yet to deliver. Because of this, we do not believe that the pressure to conduct a successful attack
is any heavier on al-Zawahiri today than it was prior to bin Laden's death. Finally, we believe that if al Qaeda
possessed the capability to conduct a spectacular attack it would launch the attack as soon as it was operationally
ready, rather than wait for some specific date. The risk of discovery is simply too great.
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***Disease
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The discovery of vaccines has led to the near eradication of several important diseases and has had a tremendous impact on health for a relatively low
cost. However, most vaccines in use today were developed by techniques that were pioneered more than 100 years ago and do not represent the full
quite limited because of the historically straightforward application of immunizations. The growing number and type of vaccine targets, coupled with
novel, more effective formulations, adjuvants, and routes of delivery for vaccines, will undoubtedly create new challenges. Although progress in vaccine
technology has the potential to prevent illness and reduce the economic burden of diseases in the long term, thereby improving outcomes, ongoing
problems remain in the short term. Who should and will pay for these anticipated improvements in health? How will this period of change be managed?
This article describes the present vaccine revolution and attempts to answer these questions, which are becoming increasingly important in managed
Universal
immunization against certain diseases has led to the eradication of
smallpox and has almost completely eliminated many other infectious
agents in the U.S., including those causing diphtheria, tetanus,
poliomyelitis, measles, mumps, rubella, and Haemophilus influenzae type
b invasive disease.1 However, many other diseases, including the three biggest killershuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, tuberculosis, and
care.The advent of vaccines to prevent deadly childhood illnesses was one of the great success stories of the 20th century.
malariahave not yet been adequately targeted by a vaccine effective enough to achieve a similar outcome. In addition, some common vaccinepreventable diseases such as influenza and pertussis continue to cause significant morbidity and mortality, primarily in adults, because of the under-
mortality in childhood now include protecting against infectious agents that can result in significant morbidity. Scientific progress and these broadened
applications will no doubt result in improved health-based outcomes, but progress often comes at a significant short-term cost. Although it is true that
improved outcomes are the goal of health care technology and that preventing disease is preferable to treatment, thus reducing overall costs, confusion
persists about the best course going forward. Given the current underutilization of vaccines (even when patients have no copayments) and the expanding
use of vaccines to cover morbidity rather than mortality, managed care organizations (MCOs) are confronted with several questions, particularly in terms
of benefits, reimbursement, and formulary management. To accept the newer vaccine technology, MCOs will require not only improved mortality data but
also cost-efficacy data with long-term proven outcomes accompanied by lower medical and pharmacy expenses. For example, the use of new vaccines for
human papillomavirus (HPV) must result in fewer cases of cervical cancer as well as in reduced cost savings in related medical expenses, such as for Pap
smears and colposcopies. In this way, a manufacturer might be able to differentiate its product from a competing one. For several years, cost efficacy has
been used to evaluate other classes of injectable vaccines, and it is a good method of comparing products when no head-to-head studies have been
conducted. MCOs are beginning to analyze data involving comparisons of outlays for resources for specific outcomes, such as adverse events and
hospitalizations. Most vaccines in use today were developed by one of two classic methods. In the 19th century, Salmon and Smith pioneered the
inactivation of an organism and the injection of immunogenic components.4 The attenuation of live organisms, as first attempted by Louis Pasteur,5 was
adapted to modern vaccine technology by Enders et al. in the 1950s.6 All but three vaccines in the currently recommended immunization schedule in the
U.S.those directed against hepatitis B virus, rotavirus, and HPVare manufactured according to these techniques. In the 1970s, a pair of key discoveries
the expression of proteins in plasmids and the ability to sequence DNAushered in the era of genetic engineering.7,8 A decade later, in 1986, these
techniques were used to develop the first recombinant vaccine, the hepatitis B vaccine.9 Recombinant technology enables the target antigen to be
produced outside the context of the parent organism, such that no live, infectious agents or potentially toxic components of those agents need to be
handled. As a result, the quantity of antigen produced, the vaccines safety, and the purity of the product are improved; efficacy is increased; costs are
reduced; and potential side effects are minimized. Since the advent of the hepatitis B vaccine in 1998, one recombinant vaccine, LYMErix, has been
approved. Although LYMErix was effective against Lyme disease in adults,10 GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) withdrew this product in 2002 because of declining
sales and negative publicity.11 This outcome has dampened enthusiasm for further development of human vaccines against Lyme disease, but it has not
had an adverse impact on the prospects for creating a vaccine that uses a similar strategy of a recombinant protein against other infectious agents. Many
other recombinant vaccines are currently being evaluated in clinical trials to determine their activity against such varied targets as malaria, hookworm,
cytomegalovirus, parvovirus, and anthrax.12 The second major advance in the 1980s was in the area of adjuvantation. Adjuvants are used to improve the
presentation of an antigen to the immune system or to enhance its immunogenicity. The only adjuvants currently approved in the U.S. for the concomitant
use with vaccines are the mineral salts calcium phosphate and alum.13 Mineral salts are still used in some inactivated vaccines, but their effectiveness is
modest at best. For example, aluminum salts were included in early influenza vaccine formulations but were removed when the vaccines showed
comparable immunogenicity in the absence of these salts.14 In 1987, however, the application of conjugation as a method of adjuvantation led to the
approval of a highly effective vaccine against H. influenzae type b, a leading cause of invasive infections, including meningitis, in children.15
Polysaccharide-based vaccines in general are poorly immunogenic, particularly in small children, because of a lack of T-cell help for the B-celldependent
antibody response. Conjugating polysaccharides to a toxoid carrier converts these antigens from T-independent to T-dependent antigens, thus improving
overall immunogenicity and lengthening the period of effectiveness.16 The success of this approach has led to the development of other polysaccharide
conjugate vaccines, including Prevnar (Wyeth), a 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine approved in the U.S. in 2000, and Menactra (Sanofi-Pasteur), a
quadrivalent meningococcal vaccine licensed in the U.S. in 2004. A vaccine directed against the serotypes of Salmonella typhi, which is responsible for
typhoid fever, is now being studied.12 The ongoing problem of suboptimal immunogenicity of protein-based vaccines, coupled with the success of
conjugation for polysaccharide-based vaccines, is driving a search for new vaccine adjuvants. We predict that the development of virtually all vaccines
co-expressed with a set of backbone genes responsible for high growth in eggs but attenuation in humans, allowing the production of safe, high-yield
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vaccines.17 Undesirable traits, such as the multibasic cleavage site found in the main attachment protein of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses, can
be edited out at the DNA level before rescue of the virus, further enhancing safety.18 The use of plasmid-based methods also has the potential to hasten
production of reassortant vaccines (i.e., vaccines from viruses created by combining genes from more than one organism or strain). The current process
for making influenza vaccine relies on selecting appropriate vaccine strains from among many candidates generated by chance, whereas molecular
methods allow complete control over the output, eliminating several steps in the generation of seed stocks.17 A variety of virus types, engineered by
these methods to be safe in humans, are being used to express immunogenic foreign proteins outside of the context of the virulent parent organism. As an
example, adenoviruses in which critical virulence genes are deleted have been used to express proteins from HIV19 and are being utilized in clinical trials
for many other pathogens such as the Ebola virus and malaria.12 It may be possible to create vaccine cocktails directed against several different
pathogens by inserting multiple proteins into a single vector or by mixing several vaccines made with the same viral vector but expressing different
proteins.20 It is also possible to deliver the immunogenic proteins without using a replication-competent, live virus. Virus-like particles (VLPs) are selfassembling constructs that express a viral antigen, but they do not contain the necessary material to replicate. This technology was used to develop
Gardasil, Mercks vaccine to protect against HPV, approved in 2006.21 In conjunction with new technology for vaccines, adjuvants are also needed. New
compounds may enhance immunogenicity quantitatively, by increasing the levels of protective immune responses, and qualitatively, by eliciting
responses from different arms of the immune system or by broadening the scope of covered immunogens. This advance has the potential to improve
overall outcomes and achieve cost-savings by allowing lower doses to be used and, possibly, by eliminating or postponing the need for booster injections.
Although no new adjuvants have been approved in the U.S. since the original licensing of the mineral salts, several compounds appear close to being
approved. The squalene-containing, oil-in-water emulsion adjuvant MF59 from Novartis has been approved in Europe for use in influenza vaccines targeted
to the elderly population.22 In a clinical trial in humans, another oil-in-water emulsion from GSK enhanced the immunogenicity of a potential pandemic
influenza vaccine. This vaccine enabled the dose to be reduced, and it induced responses that were cross-reactive in several clades (distinct virus
groupings).23Clinical trials of GSKs VLP-based HPV vaccine Cervarix have shown similar cross-protective responses to subtypes not included in the
vaccine, which might be attributable to the novel adjuvant ASO4.21,24,25 The ability of certain adjuvants to enhance the levels of memory B cells and
antibodies, in some cases to numbers much higher than those seen with natural infection,26 has implications for the longevity of the response as well. In
one study comparing ASO4 plus alum with alum alone against HPV, significantly higher antibody titers were observed when ASO4 was included.26 This
advantage was maintained during long-term follow-up. These dual benefitsextending the time that antibody levels are maintained above the threshold
required for neutralization of the organism and enhancing the capacity of the patient to respond to a booster immunizationare important for future
planning and estimating costs. However, we need to better define the correlates of immunity for specific vaccines. The threshold necessary for
neutralization differs among various organisms; knowing this parameter and other related measures is desirable and sometimes necessary. Advances in
vaccine technology necessitate concomitant advances in vaccine immunology. Considering the rising costs of research and development, another
desirable feature of adjuvants is their ability to be paired with multiple antigens so that they can be included in different vaccines. For example, ASO4 has
been studied in conjunction with both hepatitis B and HPV vaccines.26 This capability can reduce the vaccines developmental costs and the time to
market. With each new adjuvant and each new combination of adjuvant and vaccine, the advantages of increased immunogenicity, longevity, and perhaps
broadened coverage of strains must be balanced with the potential for increased reactogenicity. In this context, reactogenicity refers to the generally
undesirable effects of the vaccine, typically mediated by the immune response to the vaccine rather than by the products direct toxicological effects.
Redness or swelling at an injection site are two common examples. Despite this rapid technical progress, vaccines were not on the radar screen for
managed care before some of the recent product launches. Previously, the extent of managed cares involvement was limited to assisting in acquiring
supplies for some integrated systems, working with quality on Health Plan Employer Data and Information Set (HEDIS) measures, and participating in
clinics and health fairs. However, the advent of newer vaccines that target diseases causing morbidity rather than mortality in the U.S. (e.g., rotavirus or
herpes zoster) is encouraging MCOs to perform more clinical and economic analyses in order to ensure that their investments in vaccination are being
maximized. The entry of the live attenuated influenza vaccine FluMist (MedImmune) into the market in 2004 and the anticipated introduction of a second
HPV vaccine (Cervarix, GSK) present new challenges. These products target essentially the same disease processes as those targeted by vaccines already
approved, but they differ in their approach and, potentially, in their clinical effectiveness. The availability of similar products is relatively new in the world
of vaccines, and MCOs will have to evaluate them closely in terms of their efficacy, safety, and economic impact. For example, the question confronting
MCOs, in view of the HPV vaccine (Gardasil), as well as ASO4, and MF59, is whether the potential of lower reactogenicity from an established adjuvant is
more important than the potential for a stronger and possibly more durable immunogenic response. Ultimately, we might simply derive the answer if we
know which product provides better protection against the HPV types most commonly linked to cervical cancer in a cost-effective manner. These types of
analyses place a greater value on cost-effectiveness, clinical, and budget-impact data for the newer vaccinesdata that have been lacking in the past.
Although short-term benefits offer immediate returns to MCOs, it would be irresponsible for these health plans to focus exclusively on these benefits and
deny coverage of vaccines in an effort to save money. Such restrictions place the broader population at risk, and they may have the unintended
consequence of damaging a companys reputation. Further, a focus on short-term benefits puts health plans at a disadvantage in terms of competing for
participants during enrollment; most plans offer broad vaccine coverage, although there might be restrictions based on product labels, guidelines, or age
limitations. Another way to increase the value of future vaccines would be to quantify both the possible short-term and long-term cost offsets attributable
to the availability of the specific product. Again, because it is crucial that MCOs not waste money, the emphasis should be on outcomes and costeffectiveness. In concert with the advances in vaccine engineering and adjuvantation, novel routes of delivery are also being investigated. Intradermal
delivery directly to an environment rich in antigen-presenting cells (APCs) is considered to be a dose-sparing measure for several vaccines, including those
used for HIV and influenza.27 Needle-free variants of this route, such as trans-dermal patches and electroporation, are also being tested for conditions as
diverse as influenza, travelers diarrhea, and melanoma.12,28,29 Mucosal delivery, which has the advantage of not requiring a needle, is already being
used for several vaccines. The live, attenuated influenza vaccine FluMist is given as a nasal spray, and the rotavirus vaccine, licensed in the U.S in 2006, is
delivered orally.30,31 The mucosal route of delivery may contribute to the heterovariant cross-protection seen with both of these vaccines by inducing
broader immunity, including mucosal immunoglobulin A. Mucosal delivery is also being studied for several other potential vaccines directed against
diseases such as HIV infection and tuberculosis.12 In the past, MCOs tended not to pay a premium for convenience alone. If an alternative (needle-free)
route of delivery is associated with improved outcomes, such a premium might be worth the additional investment. The demand for vaccines by
employers and physicians is also an important consideration. Individual health plan members and small employers might be less willing to cover the cost
of new vaccines because of the possibly significant impact on premiums. Small employers with a pool of healthy young employees might not be interested
in covering vaccines for disease states with poorly documented short-term benefits. With the arrival of many new biologic agents and vaccines, as well as
the future role of genomics, the traditional model of medical coverage may need to evolve. The questions of how these innovations will be funded and who
will fund them may become more fluid. In the past, the question of whether different vaccines created an equivalent reduction in morbidity and mortality
for the same cost was not asked; however, this question needs to be addressed. Many payment and reimbursement structuresranging from universal
coverage, effective from the first dollar, to differing levels of reimbursement, such as a standard coverage (100%) versus a nonstandard benefit (a 20%
plan member copayment)will be analyzed and reviewed by those responsible for funding these advances. Again, documented clinical and financial
outcomes and targeted disease states will be playing a significant role in determining how health plans approach the placement of vaccine products. The
role of activism and the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) guidelines will remain important variables. This is because many health
plans routinely follow the ACIPs recommendations; if this reviewing body begins to cover certain vaccines or populations, many plans will probably follow
those guidelines. The success of vaccines against childhood diseases has created enthusiasm for researching additional targets. Mercks Gardasil was the
first vaccine licensed with a primary indication to prevent cervical cancer. A second HPV vaccine, Cervarix is being considered for licensure in the U.S.
Other preventive cancer vaccines are also in development, many of which are in clinical trials,12 and therapeutic vaccines designed to treat or ameliorate
different types of cancer after it has occurred are also being pursued. Therapeutic vaccines for chronic infectious diseases such as hepatitis B, HIV, and
cytomegalovirus are being studied, as are vaccines designed to halt or reverse the progression of Alzheimers disease.12,32 Even with these new goals
and with the trend of therapeutic vaccines moving toward targeting morbidity rather than mortality, we must still ask: How should efficacy be analyzed?
Although 100% efficacy is rarely seen, products with the greatest clinical impact on the broadest population have been favored. With some of the newer
agents, this criterion might not remain as important. For instance, if a vaccine works in a portion of the population and that segment can be identified, an
MCO might direct the products use to ensure its appropriateness for that segment. If a screening tool or a laboratory value can narrow the pool of patients
to those who are most likely to benefit from a vaccine, an MCO might use controls (e.g., prior authorizations) to ensure that the most appropriate patients
are being targeted with that tool or lab value, thereby resulting in improved success and in protection of the companys financial investment. As more
costly vaccines enter the market, the financial implications for health plans and physicians will become more pronounced. The debate over who will pay
and how much will be paid will only intensify. Vaccines remain the single best investment in health care,33 but the costs associated with the increasing
options are beginning to strain both public and private systems. Most health plans have liberal coverage and reimbursement policies for vaccines, and this
approach is considered to offer a good return on investment. As we mentioned earlier, this traditional approach may be re-examined in some areas, with
many alternative options to be explored. With most of these alternatives, one goal remains: making sure that the best vaccines reach the right patients
with few impediments. For physicians, the introduction of newer vaccines has led to a greater number of nontraditional vaccinators, such as pharmacies
and businesses traditionally outside the health care system that are now becoming acquainted with, and challenged by, the financial implications.
Expectations about reimbursement levels and profitability may need to be addressed to ensure that all parties involvedhealth plans, physicians,
employers, and patientsfeel their contribution is significant. In 2007, the immunization schedule for children was already crowded; 15 different vaccines
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were recommended for children from birth to six years of age, and 14 were recommended for older children, seven to 18 years of age. Many of these
vaccines are administered multiple times, and adults may need additional boosters. The development and approval of new vaccines against infectious
diseases, as well as other potential uses for them, are likely to exacerbate this problem. A desire to simplify the regimen is fueling a trend toward
combination vaccines. Although many combined vaccines have been used historically (e.g., diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus), new combinations are
being approved for children (e.g., pentavalent vaccines such as GSKs Pediarix [diphtheria, acellular pertussis, tetanus, hepatitis B, and inactivated polio
vaccine]) and for adults (e.g., GSKs Twinrix for hepatitis A and B). The main challenge will be to balance immunogenicity in the newer formulations while
maintaining their benefits of easier administration and lower costs. In this regard, adherence is likely to be a key issue in the future. If it can be shown that
a product improves compliance and clinical outcomes while reducing costs, that vaccine may benefit from preferential positioning by health plans. For
instance, Happe et al., using data from SelectHealth, retrospectively compared children receiving the HEDIS Combination 2 vaccine series with those
receiving each vaccine series individually.34 By two years of age, children in the combination cohort were more likely to have been fully vaccinated, and
vaccinated within the recommended age ranges, than children receiving each series individually (86.9% vs. 74.1%, P < 0.001; 45.2% vs. 37.5%, P = 0.001
respectively). Additional studies with data indicating improved compliance rates and outcomes support the value of this technological advancement.
Vaccines exemplify the premise behind managed care to promote wellness and prevent disease while also avoiding unnecessary treatment-related costs.
The benefits of childhood vaccines in reducing mortality alone are undeniable.1 However, the costbenefit relationship for the new generation of vaccines
that can target reductions in morbidity or prevent rare and costly illnesses such as cancer is less clear. The promise of a brighter future is motivation up to
a point; eventually, however, as the health care dollar is stretched, proven results, both clinical and financial, will be required. In health care, there is an
increasing awareness of the need to look at the bigger picture and to have less siloing between pharmacy and medical divisions. Most organizations
that practice evidence-based medicine acknowledge that both pharmacy and medical dollars often need to be spent in order to realize improved overall
outcomes and reduced long-term expenses. One obstacle that affects this investment is the phenomenon of continuous enrollment in areas of the
community with high competition for plan enrollees. If one plan invests liberally in vaccine benefits but a competitor does not, is the plan making the
investment placed at a disadvantage in terms of premiums? Community-wide standards, agreed upon by health plans, employers, and physicians, would
need to address this matter and ensure that all parties act in concert through their investments in the short-term and long-term health of the community.
A fundamental
principle of epidemiology is that the spread of an infectious disease through a population
is a function of the density of both susceptible and infectious hosts. If infectious
agents are supportable by the host species of conservation interest, the impact of a
pathogen on a declining population is likely to decrease as the host population
declines. A pathogen will spread when, on average, it is able to transmit to a
susceptible host before an infected host dies or eliminates the infection (Kermack and
McKendrick 1927, Anderson and May 1991). If the parasite affects the reproduction or mortality
of its host, or the host is able to mount an immune response, the parasite population may eventually
reduce the density of susceptible hosts to a level at which the rate of parasite
increase is no longer positive. Most epidemiological models indicate that there is a host threshold
The density of a population is an important parameter for both PVA and hostpathogen theory.
density (or local population size) below which a parasite cannot invade, suggesting that rare or depleted species
should be less subject to host-specific disease. This has implications for small, yet increasing, populations. For
example, although endangered species at low density may be less susceptible to a disease outbreak, recovery to
higher densities places them an increasing risk of future disease-related decline (e.g., southern sea otters; Gerber
et al. 2004). In the absence of stochastic factors (such as those modeled in PVA), and given the usual assumption of
absence of stochasticity is possible if alternate hosts (sometimes called reservoir hosts) relax the extent to which
transmission depends on the density of the endangered host species. Similarly, if transmission occurs at a rate
proportional to the frequency of infected hosts relative to uninfected hosts (see McCallum et al. 2001), endangered
hosts at low density may still face the threat of extinction by disease. These possibilities suggest that the
complexities characteristic of many real host pathogen systems may have very direct implications for the recovery
of rare endangered specie of extinction by disease. These possibilities suggest that the complexities characteristic
of many real hostpathogen systems may have very direct implications or the recovery of rare endangered species,
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Microbes evolve faster than people. For this reason, infectious disease will always
exist. Many poorly understood diseases were later found to have an infectious disease basis. Infectious agents are continually
evolving. New organisms are being recognized, and old ones develop new
capabilities. As we develop new therapeutic agents, microbes evolve
defenses against this technology. We are seeing increasing problems with
infectious disease in humans and animals. Why? Are we losing ground in the "arms war"? Is this due
to increased exposure to otherwise remote part of the globe? Is it a natural cycle of infectious disease? Is it a result of a declining
global environment? Has the irresponsible use of technology contributed to this problem? Why is Lyme disease more prevalent now?
How much of what is called "Lyme disease" is some other infectious disease? Could some of these patients be infected with
seronegative syphilis? What can we do to reduce the number of infected ticks in our environment?
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During the last three decades, the biopharmaceutical industry has invested
significantly in new and improved vaccines. The results have provided remarkable
new ways to prevent cases of cervical cancer, meningitis, pneumonia, pandemic
influenza, and rotavirus diseases. The collaborative efforts of the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC), World Health Organization (WHO), national governments and
industry have led to major progress in addressing global immunization goals and
reducing illness and death due to vaccine-preventable diseases. According to the WHO,
immunizations prevent between two and three million deaths each year.
Thanks to polio eradication efforts, for example, the WHO estimates that more than eight
million people are walking today who would otherwise be paralyzed, and the incidence
of polio has declined by 99.8 percent. In 1980, before widespread vaccination, measles
caused an estimated 2.6 million deaths annually. The WHO reports that the number has
dropped by 71 percent, thanks to vaccinations. Vaccines do not just save lives, they also save
money. The CDC estimates that for every dollar spent in the U.S. on pediatric vaccines, we save $10.20. In fact, the
U.S. saves almost $70 million in direct and indirect costs each year as a result of the pediatric vaccination program.
In 2005, Harvard University scientists calculated that spending on the GAVI Alliances program to expand vaccine
coverage would deliver a rate of return of 18 percent by 2020, higher than most other health preventions. The
Gates Foundation, meanwhile, has found that just three vaccines HIB, pneumococcal and rotavirus have the
capacity to save $63 billion annually. Although
vaccine development is a highly complex, lengthy, expensive and highrisk venture. Despite that hurdle, the research and development pipeline is robust. According to BIO Ventures for
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Forrest M. Mims III has reported in a Special Feature in The Citizen Scientist ("Meeting Dr. Doom," 31 March 2006)
on a lecture he recently heard at a meeting of the Texas Academy of Science. The Academy chose to honor one
expects that microbes will "ultimately purge the Earth of the scourge of humanity."
(Personal correspondence with Forrest Mims.) The data stand utterly against
this idea. Plagues have run rampant through human populations throughout time.
Millions have died. Huge fractions of some populations have been wiped out. But the net death rate has
never come close to the fractions that Pianka envisions. Virulent diseases that kill
quickly tend to burn themselves out. Natural selection creates less lethal
varieties because an organism can't spread if it kills its host before it can propagate.
The flu pandemic of 1918 (the influenza virus is championed by Pianka) may have killed 50 million people, but that
was only about 5 percent of those infected. Moreover, every year sees medical advancementsscreening
techniques improve, as do our methods of creating new vaccines and treating illness of all kinds. Not only that, a
desperate situation would be met by desperate measures, including the implementation of martial law, the halting
In short, there is no
historical precedent that supports the notion that humanity could be ninety percent
depopulated by a single disease. Moreover, as time goes on and our technology and awareness grows,
of all air and ground traffic except for emergency vehicles and so on, to stop contagion.
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the risk to humanity is steadily falling. Professor Pianka can believe that microbes will depopulate the earth if he
wants, and such alarmist nonsense by some Ph.D.s sells lots of books. However, Pianka's viewpoint runs contrary to
the best science.
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Forrest M. Mims III has reported in a Special Feature in The Citizen Scientist ("Meeting Dr. Doom," 31 March 2006)
on a lecture he recently heard at a meeting of the Texas Academy of Science. The Academy chose to honor one
expects that microbes will "ultimately purge the Earth of the scourge of humanity."
(Personal correspondence with Forrest Mims.) The data stand utterly against
this idea. Plagues have run rampant through human populations throughout time.
Millions have died. Huge fractions of some populations have been wiped out. But the net death rate has
never come close to the fractions that Pianka envisions. Virulent diseases that kill
quickly tend to burn themselves out. Natural selection creates less lethal
varieties because an organism can't spread if it kills its host before it can propagate.
The flu pandemic of 1918 (the influenza virus is championed by Pianka) may have killed 50 million people, but that
was only about 5 percent of those infected. Moreover, every year sees medical advancementsscreening
techniques improve, as do our methods of creating new vaccines and treating illness of all kinds. Not only that, a
desperate situation would be met by desperate measures, including the implementation of martial law, the halting
In short, there is no
historical precedent that supports the notion that humanity could be ninety percent
depopulated by a single disease. Moreover, as time goes on and our technology and awareness grows,
of all air and ground traffic except for emergency vehicles and so on, to stop contagion.
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the risk to humanity is steadily falling. Professor Pianka can believe that microbes will depopulate the earth if he
wants, and such alarmist nonsense by some Ph.D.s sells lots of books. However, Pianka's viewpoint runs contrary to
the best science.
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***Biodiversity
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(Jim Heath - Australian Orchid Council Inc., 1999, Orchids Australia, WHY SAVE ORCHIDS UNDER
THREAT?, http://www.orchidsaustralia.com/whysave.htm, CM)
Here was this sane-looking manager at Western Power, telling me the company was
spending $200,000 to rescue six types of orchids. Would I like to write something
about it? Give me time to investigate, I told him. I wanted to find out if it made
sense. A month later, I knew it didnt make economic or ecological sense yet the
money had been wisely spent. The $200,000 went to the Plant Science and Micropropagation Unit in Perth. The
orchid project is led by Dr Kingsley Dixon, a botanist with a long reputation for saving endangered plants. To save
orchids, his group isolates the helper fungus for each one, grows thousands of plants and puts them in bushland
sites. They back this up with tissue culture, cyrostorage of shoots, and DNA fingerprinting. It is painstaking work,
with no shortcuts; and it all costs. Why do it? I guessed there was some scientific incentive for saving these
delicate, about-to-expire flowers: Drakaea elastica (the Glossy-leafed Hammer orchid), Caladenia huegelii (Grand
Spider orchid), Epiblema grandiflorum ssp. cyanea (the Blue Babe in the Cradle orchid), Diuris purdiei (Purdies
Donkey orchid), Diuris micrantha (Swamp Donkey orchid) and Thelymitra mangeniae (Cinnamon Sun orchid).
Weve all read about the imperatives of biodiversity, the cancer-cures that may flow in the sap of some rainforest
shrub. Could that be it? A lot of the information about biodiversity reduces to two assertions: Biodiversity is
needed as a life-support system for the planet and as a carrier of priceless genetic information. Species are being
observed rate of extinction until now is only one species per year. Yet the official forecast has been 40,000 species
dying out per year in the century, a million in all. It is truth that is becoming extinct, not species. Even if species
were disappearing at a great clip in the Amazon, what has this to do with orchids in Western Australia? The Amazon
scare started a Save Everything! movement. If the Amazon numbers were true (few doubted them), in time our
only companions might be cockroaches and rats. Under those conditions, saving orchids, or anything else, seemed
a wonderful idea. But if the Amazon numbers are nonsense, there is no reason to panic about saving orchids. If
you want an example of an extinct Australian plant, the last Scarlet Snake Bush died in 1995. So extinction does
happen here. There are 29 other known cases like that in Western Australia, if you go back 100 years. Most of those
plants probably were wiped out in the great agricultural expansion in the first part of the 20th century (up to about
1930). Globally this is a high extinction rate. But at least those extinctions are facts.
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earth existed for 3.5 billion years, 87.5% of its existence, without biodiversity. Somewhere around 500 million years
ago life began to diversify and multiple celled species appeared. Because these species were partially composed of
sold material they left better geologic records, and the number of species and genera could be cataloged and
counted. The number of genera on the planet is a indication of the biodiversity of the planet. Figure 1 is a plot of
the number of genera on the planet over the last 550 million years. The little black line outside of the left edge of
the graph is 10 million years. Notice the left end of this graph. Biodiversity has never been higher than it is today.
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***Amazon Defo
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The Amazon is
experiencing a drought rate that is unprecedented in a century, said the
agency. Even before 2005, water availability had been shrinking steadily
for more than 10 years, which made the trees more vulnerable. Between
2005 and 2010, localised dry spells added to the problem .
subsequent drought in 2010, said study co-author Yadvinder Malhi of Oxford University.
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and Brazils University of So Paulo. Saleska et al. begin reminding us that Large-scale numerical models that simulate the
interactions between changing global climate and terrestrial vegetation predict substantial carbon loss from tropical ecosystems,
physiological feedback mechanism should be observable as short-term reductions in transpiration and photosynthesis in response to
drought under current climates. In 2005, Mother Nature conducted an experiment for us by producing a substantial drought in the
Amazon; the drought peaked in intensity during July to September of that year with the hardest hit part of the Amazon occurring in
the central and southwestern portions of Amazonia. Saleska et al. used satellite-based measurements and much to their surprise,
They
conclude that These observations suggest that intact Amazon forests
may be more resilient than many ecosystem models assume, at least in
response to short-term climatic anomalies. Next up is an article in a
recent issue of the Journal of Vegetation Science by seven scientists from
Panama, Brazil, and California; the piece is entitled Long-term variation
in Amazon forest dynamics and therefore must contain horrible news
about the state of the rainforest, right? Wrong! Laurance and her team conducted five different surveys of
they found that forest canopy greenness over the drought-stricken areas increased at a highly significant rate.
the forest in a protected area 50 miles north of Manaus in the central Amazon; they made these measurements between 1981 and
2003. Getting right to the bottom line, they report that Forest biomass also increased over time, with the basal area of trees in our
plots, which correlate strongly with tree biomass, rising by 4% on average. They then add The suite of changes we observed
accelerating tree growth and forest dynamism, and rising biomasslargely accords with findings from other long-term, comparative
studies of forest dynamics across the Amazon Basin. They state One of the most frequent explanations for such findings is that
forest productivity is rising, possibly in response to increasing CO2 fertilization or some other regional or global driver(s), such as
increasing irradiance or rainfall variability. We are partial to the increasing CO2 explanation, and it is worth noting that the first
sentence in the Conclusions section in their abstract clearly states The
appeared in Global Biogeochemical Cycles. Lapola et al. begin noting that Tropical South America vegetation cover projections for
the end of the century differ considerably depending on climate scenario and also on how physiological processes are considered in
vegetation models. To investigate the future of the vegetation of the Amazon, the team created a numerical Potential Vegetation
Model that could be coupled with global climate models. As seen in their figure below (Figure 1), the vegetation model appears to
accurately replicate the current vegetation in the region. When they simulated climate change in the future and they included the
CO2 fertilization effect, the vegetation was largely unchanged. Without the CO2 fertilization effect, the rainforest all but disappears
under their expected change in climate. And if the climate does not change much and the CO2 fertilization effect is realized, the
rainforest expands considerably. In their own words, Lapola et al. conclude Biome projections for the end of the century in tropical
South America are quite variable, depending not only on the climate scenario, but also on the effect of CO2 fertilization on
photosynthesis. Furthermore Our
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mankind stands to
lose much more. By destroying the tropical forests, we risk our
own quality of life, gamble with the stability of climate and local weather, threaten the existence of
Actually the concern should not be about losing a few plants and animals;
other species, and undermine the valuable services provided by biological diversity. While in most areas
environmental degradation has yet to reach a crisis level where entire systems are collapsing, it is important to
examine some of the effects of existing environmental impoverishment and to forecast some of the potential
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concentrations in 2005, the third greatest in the global record, may have been partially caused by the Amazon
occur once every two years by 2025 - 2050. This year's drought gives me concern that this prediction may be
correct. The occurrence of two extreme droughts in the past five years, when no El Nio conditions were present
and record warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures occurred, are suggestive of a link between global warming and
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***Global Warming
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world added
roughly 100 billion tonnes of carbon to the atmosphere between 2000 and
2010. That is about a quarter of all the CO2 put there by humanity since
1750. Yet, still no warming during that time. That is because the CO2
greenhouse effect is weak and marginal compared to natural causes of
global temperature changes.
At first the current stall out of global warming was due to the ocean cycles
turning back to cold. But something much more ominous has developed
over this period. Sunspots run in 11 year short term cycles, with longer
cyclical trends of 90 and even 200 years. The number of sunspots declined substantially in
the last 11 year cycle, after flattening out over the previous 20 years. But in the current cycle, sunspot activity has
collapsed. NASAs Science News report for January 8, 2013 states,
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(3) Models suggest atmosphere should warm 20% faster than surface but surface
warming was 33% faster during the time satellites and surface observations used.
This suggests GHG theory wrong, and surface temperature contaminated.
(4) Temperatures longer term have been modified to enhance warming trend and
minimize cyclical appearance. Station dropout, missing data, change of local siting,
urbanization, instrumentation contaminate the record, producing exaggerating
warming. The GAO scolded NOAA for poor compliance with siting standards.
(5) Those who create the temperature records have been shown in
analysis and emails to take steps to eliminate inconvenient temperature
trends like the Medieval Warm Period, the 1940s warm blip and cooling
since 1998. Steps have included removal of the urban heat island
adjustment and as Wigley suggested in a climategate email, introduce
0.15C of artificial cooling of global ocean temperatures near 1940.
(6) Forecast models have failed with temperature trends below even the
assumed zero emission control scenarios
(7) Climate models all have a strong hot spot in the mid to high troposphere in the tropical regions. Weather
balloons and satellite show no warming in this region the last 30 years.
(8) Ocean heat content was forecast to increase and was said to be the canary in the coal mine. It too has stalled
according to NOAA PMEL. The warming was to be strongest in the tropics where the models were warming the
atmosphere the most. No warming has been shown in the top 300 meters in the tropical Pacific back to the 1950s.
(9) Alarmists had predicted permanent El Nino but the last decade has featured 7 La Nina and just 3 El Nino years.
This is related to the PDO and was predicted by those who look at natural factors.
(10) Alarmists had predicted much lower frequency of the negative modes of the AO and NAO due to warming. The
trend has been the opposite with a record negative AO/NAO in 2009/10
(11) Alarmists predicted an increase in hurricane frequency and strength globally but the global activity had
diminished after 2005 to a 30+ year low. The U.S. has gone seven consecutive years without a landfalling major
hurricane, the longest stretch since the 1860s
(12) Alarmists have predicted a significant increase in heat records but despite heat last two summers, the 1930s to
1950s still greatly dominated the heat records. Even in Texas at the center of the 2011 heat wave, the long term
(since 1895) trends in both temperature and precipitation are flat. And when stations with over 80 years of
temperature data were considered, the number of heat records last July were not extraordinary relative to past hot
summers.
(13) Extremes of rainfall and drought were predicted to increase but except during periods of strong El Nino and La
Nina, no trends are seen
(14) Alarmists indicated winter would become warmer and short. The last 15 years has seen a decline in winter
temperatures in all regions. In places winter have been the coldest and longest in decades and even centuries.
(15) Alarmists had indicated snow would become increasingly rare in middle latitudes especially in the big cities
where warming would be greatest. All time snow records were set in virtually all the major cities and northern
hemisphere snow coverage in winter has increased with 4 of the top 5 years since 2007/08. Also among the east
coast high impact snowstorms tracked by NOAA (NESIS), 11 of the 46 have occurred since 2009.
(16) Alarmists had indicated a decline of Antarctic ice due to warming. The
upward trends since 1979 continues.
(17) Alarmists had indicated Greenland and arctic ice melt would accelerate. The arctic ice tracks with
the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the IARC shows the ice cover was similarly reduced in the
1950s when the Atlantic was last in a similar warm mode. In Greenland, the warmth of the 1930s and
1940s still dominates the records and longer term temperatures have declined.
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and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of
greenhouse gases beginning now.' In the APS it is OK to discuss whether the mass of the proton changes over time
and how a multi-universe behaves, but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible?"
In spite of a multidecade international campaign to enforce the message that increasing amounts of the "pollutant"
"Climategate" email of climate scientist Kevin Trenberth: "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming
at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't." But the warming is only missing if one believes computer models
where so-called feedbacks involving water vapor and clouds greatly amplify the small effect of CO2.
The lack of warming for more than a decadeindeed, the smaller-thanpredicted warming over the 22 years since the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) began issuing projectionssuggests that computer models
have greatly exaggerated how much warming additional CO2 can cause .
Faced with this embarrassment, those promoting alarm have shifted their drumbeat from warming to weather
extremes, to enable anything unusual that happens in our chaotic climate to be ascribed to CO2.
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Prediction, as they say, is tough, especially when its about the future and thats
especially true when it comes to the climate, whose complexity we only partially
understand. It is, as we all know, naturally immensely variable. And the effect of human intervention is
subject to long timelags: it will be decades, even centuries, before the full
consequences of todays emissions of carbon dioxide become clear .
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carbon dioxide is not a pollutant as many claim. Carbon dioxide is good for
plant life and is a natural constituent of the atmosphere . During Earths long history there
has been more and less carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than we see today.
Second, they claim that climate is stable and slow to change, and we are accelerating climate change beyond
natural variability. That is also not true.
One should be careful when looking at model projections. After all, these
models are crude representations of the real atmosphere and are lacking
many fundamental processes and interactions that are inherent in the real
atmosphere. The 11 degrees scenario that is thrown around the media as if it were the mainstream prediction
is an extreme scenario.
Most models predict anywhere from a 2 to 6 degree increase over the next century, but even these are problematic
given the myriad of problems associated with using models and interpreting their output.
No one advocates destruction of the environment, and indeed we have an obligation to take care of our
environment for future generations. At the same time, we need to make sound decisions based on scientific facts.
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(Christopher, English journalist and author; founders of the magazine Private Eye, and has contributed
to it since then. He has been a columnist for The Sunday Telegraph since 1990, Telegraph, 8/2/13,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/4029837/Global-warming-Reasons-whyit-might-not-actually-exist.html)
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***Agriculture
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conventional
farming today is dramatically different from conventional farming in the
1960s. One big factor affecting higher yields was the commercial
introduction in 1996 of disease- and insect-resistant seeds improved through
biotechnology, also known as genetically modified seeds. Biotech-modified maize, for instance, protects
that increased yields are needed to feed the worlds growing population. Paarlberg said
against infections from the corn borer insect without requiring the use of chemical spreads, he said. Resistant
soybeans have replaced multiple sprayings of toxic herbicides and pesticides. And because biotech crops resist
insects and weeds, less mechanical tillage is needed, reducing the amount of diesel fuel exhaust going into the air
and conserving soil. The other more recent factor affecting conventional agriculture has been the
use of
global positioning systems (GPS) on farm machinery that tell farmers exactly what
part of the field needs to be watered and what part does not, what part is low on nitrogen and what part is not,
Paarlberg said. That prevents excessive applications of fertilizer and reduces toxic runoff into streams. GPSequipped tractors also allow farmers to insert fertilizer into the soil precisely where seeds have been planted.
Today,
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food availability. The review highlighted improvements in agricultural technologies, such as more
productive and climate-resilient crop varieties, are important to counter this threat, but are unlikely to be sufficient
Wider changes in food trade and stocks, and nutrition and social
policy options are also critical. The last few decades have witnessed a substantial decline in the
number of hungry people worldwide. However, since 2007, progress has slowed and world food
supply and demand have been precariously balanced - climate change
threatens to tip this balance, most dramatically in the poorer areas of the world. Professor Tim
on their own.
Wheeler, from the University of Reading's Walker Institute for Climate System Research and lead author of the
review, said: "The
master's in development sociology from Cornell University and has written and spoken
frequently on China and sustainable development, and has served as an advisor to the World
Bank and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, Food security and national
security: Learning from Chinas approach to managing its wheat supplies, IATP, February
28th, 2011, http://www.iatp.org/documents/food-security-and-national-security-learning-fromchina%E2%80%99s-approach-to-managing-its-wheat-s#sthash.7krfIN0g.dpuf, SD)
China maintains vast reserves of grain, and other foods like pork and edible oils,
the United States and most other countries have abandoned this wise
approach. Thirty years of neoliberal market fundamentalism has treated
Although
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U.S. Department of Agriculture reported the lowest stocks for corn in the last 15 years, putting us one severe
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term for both crop and livestock products due to a combination of slower production growth and stronger demand,
more effective or allowed inputs to be combined in new and better ways. ERS has developed the total factor
productivity (TFP) statistical series, which isolates the effect of changes in technology and related factors from
those effects that result from changes in inputs on the growth of agricultural output (see box on p.6, Explaining
Total Factor Productivity). In the long run,
Figure 1 shows changes in total output (an aggregation of crop and livestock commodities and related services),
total inputs (an aggregation of land, labor, capital, and intermediate inputs like fertilizer, feed and seed), and TFP
from 1948 to 2004. These changes are measured as indices with 1948 set equal to 100. For output, the index value
reached 266 in 2004, meaning that total agricultural production in 2004 was 2.66 times higher than in 1948. Over
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pattern and balance of trade of food and food products. These impacts will vary with the degree of warming and
bibliographic analysis of peer-reviewed journal papers on food security and climate change since the publication of
the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 1990 (21). That report was ground-breaking for
the climate science that it reviewed, but agriculture was entirely absent. Our analysis shows that a small peak of
papers with climate change and food security in the title or abstract were published in the mid-1990s, followed by a
lull then a sharp increase in papers published with these terms from 2008 onward. The distribution of the evidence
across the four dimensions of food security is, however, heavily skewed toward food availability within 70% of the
publications. Access, utilization, and stability dimensions of food security are represented by only 11.9, 13.9, and
4.2% of the total publications on food security and climate change, respectively .
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and public procurement policies. Looking ahead, the World Bank said uncertainty in the international market
remains.