Ranges (Up till 11.

35am HKT)
Currency

price action. Offers are usual, atop 123.00 from

exporters to Mrs Watanabes.

Currency

EURUSD

1.0785-1.0817

EURJPY

132.295-59

USDJPY

122.50-78

EURGBP

0.7088-0.7100

GBPUSD

1.5209-35

USDSGD

1.4178-1.4203

USDCHF
AUDUSD

1.0004-18
0.7120-39

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.795-885
1157.5-1163.2

NZDUSD

0.6537-54

USDTWD

32.67-90

USDCAD

1.3283-94

USDCNH

6.3900-87

AUDNZD

1.0885-1.0907

XAU

1180.8-1085.4

Key Headlines

Its Friday 13 and Red Res Fischer was careful.

So careful he, like his colleagues, offered nothing
new. So in other words, Dec rate hike is on the
table but not a done deal.

Our traders have recommended 2 trade ideas;

intraday long UsdCad and longer-term, long
AudNzd.

Weak Nikkei, lower UST yields yet UsdJpy is

holding well above 122.50. Why? I was talking to
PM at Japanese trust and he said post-NFP,
general market wants to buy UsdJpy in on this
122 and even into low 122s. Which explains the
price action.
Keep an eye on CNH options. Selling of CNH
vols since Tuesday has depleted and some
traders are starting to pick up long vols. They
think that if 6.40 breaks, we can see huge rally.

EurUsd started off slow and Fischers speech offered

nothing at all. We did see some selling of EurAud going
through platforms, which pushed EurUsd to 1.0796.
Offers are talked about up to 1.0850 and stops
thereafter. Downside bids below 1.0760.
Definitely someone was doing EurAud and all through
platforms. The cross ended NY 1.5170 and traded
beneath 1.5140. AudUsd firmly in the 0.7120s.
Weak oil vs weak Usd. Thats the picture for Cad. Our
traders Jon and Sam like UsdCad higher given weak
commodity prices recommends on intraday long
UsdCad here (1.3288-90) with stop below 1.3220. We
see buying from under 1.3225 and offers are light unless
we get to mid-1.33s. No Canadian data; just US retail
sales.
Sam also recommended long AudNzd both cash and
option. He suggests long cash here 1.0900-10 with stop
at 1.0830 with target 1.1300. Risk-reward ratio is 1 to 5.
On option, buy a Feb 15, 1.1050 Aud call Nzd put for
1.4% Aud. Why? The expiry date includes 2 RBA and
RBNZ meetings.
Open below for details.

Trade Idea AUDNZD Higher.msg

FX Flows

Asians

So the Fed speakers did little, and it was over to Stanley

Fischer. What did he say? Fed Res accommodative
monetary policy has helped the US economy weather the
strong dollar. This Usd strength will continue into 2016.
Fischer pointed out that FOMC indicated after their
October meeting "it may be appropriate to raise the
target range for the federal funds rate at the next
meeting in Dec," but added "the outcome will depend on
the committee's assessment of the progress - realized
and expected - that has been made toward meeting our
goals of maximum employment and price stability."

Whats up with Chinese Yuan? Honestly dont know but

onshore USDCNY creeping higher and this will spill into
rest of Asian currencies.
USDCNH tracked the onshore. Some people are
watching this 6.40 level eagerly saying that the 6.4 level
was sold off aggressively twice in Oct because resembles
June 04. I dont buy the story sorry. One thing, the
selling of CNH vols since Tuesday has depleted and some
traders are starting to pick up long vols. They think that
if 6.40 breaks, we can see huge rally.

So in other words, on the table but not a done deal.

Not a lot in data release today but keep an eye on the

Malaysias Q3 GDP to be released at noon local. Overall
touch weaker from previous quarter; annually 4.7% from
4.9% and quarterly up 0.7% from 1.1%. They will also
publish the Q3 current account balance which is
expected to be Myr5.7bn from Myr7.6bn.

And so we wrap up another week. Nikkei opened up soft

UsdJpy backed off little, I mean little. At the fix, we
touched 122.50. Talk of macro buyers in both UsdJpy
and EurJpy. I was talking to PM at Japanese trust and he
said post-NFP, general market wants to buy UsdJpy in
on this 122 and even into low 122s. Which explains the

Who said what

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Fed Fischer: Delaying lift-off has been key to

weathering Usd
Fed Fischer: Sees continued drag on growth
from Usd
Fed Fischer: Strong Usd effects likely to persist
well into 2016
Fed Fischer: Strong Usd has material role
holding core PCE below 2%
Fed Fischer: Policy makers remain vigilant to
unfolding events
Fed Fischer: FOMC indicated maybe appropriate
to raise in Dec

In The News
FT: Hillary Clinton pledges $30bn to aid coal
country
Hillary Clinton has pledged $30bn to alleviate a crisis in
Americas coal country as she unveiled a plan to address
some of the harshest economic effects of changes in US
energy production. The plan from the frontrunner for
the Democratic presidential nomination goes beyond
President Barack Obamas initiatives and is an effort to
blunt Republican charges that her party is waging a war
on coal. Coal mines are closing and the industry is
collapsing as its role as a power source is undercut by
environmental regulations and cheap natural gas freed
by fracking.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b661d3e8-8988-11e590de-f44762bf9896.html#axzz3r2gne136
WSJ: Fed Weighs Tightening Revolving-Door
Curbs
The Federal Reserve is weighing new measures to
tighten the restraints it imposes on bank examiners who
leave the central bank for jobs with financial institutions,
following questions of a revolving door between the
regulator and Wall Street. A Fed spokesman, Dave
Skidmore, said the Feds board of governors and regional
reserve banks are looking at the area of postemployment restrictions and considering a variety of
actions. He declined to give specifics but added, We
expect to finish up this consideration in the near future.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-weighs-tighteningrevolving-door-curbs-1447372412?
mod=wsj_nview_latest
MarketWatch: Fed's Fischer sees U.S. economy
overcoming dollar rise and foreign weakness
The U.S. economy is overcoming the "sizable shock"
from the dollar's appreciation and foreign weakness, said
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, on
Thursday. "The U.S. economy appears to be weathering
them reasonably well," Fischer said in a speech to a
conference on rate policy hosted by the U.S. central
bank.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-fischer-seesus-economy-overcoming-dollar-rise-and-foreignweakness-2015-11-12?mod=BreakingNewsMain
AFR: China FTA delays threaten $400m in tariff
cuts
Australian farmers face a nervous wait as Chinese
officials scramble to complete the paperwork required
for the free trade agreement to come into effect this year,
with any slip in the timeline putting in jeopardy $400
million in tariff cuts. Agricultural Minister Barnaby
Joyce said the potential for an administrative delay on
the Chinese side was one of the reasons he visited Beijing
this week. "I'm here to do what I can to help," he said in
between meetings on Thursday. He said every country in
the world was attempting to work with China's
agricultural department so that more of their products
could gain access to this significant market.
http://www.afr.com/news/world/china-fta-delaysthreaten-400m-in-tariff-cuts-20151112-gkxv5y
AFR: Senior bank bonds are vulnerable to losses
Let's tackle the serious issues: jobs, rates, banks, bail-in
bonds and Asian risks. I will summarise my views and
then dive into the detail. First, the stunning fall in
Australia's jobless rate on Thursday rules out any nearterm rate reduction. The bond market is swinging from
pricing in cuts over the next three years to projecting the
cash rate will eventually rise above the current 2 per cent
benchmark. Second, contrary to widely held wisdom, the
regulator can "economically bail-in" senior bank bonds
in Australia and this is well understood, and sometimes
embraced, by the major banks. Accepting the lossabsorbing capacity of senior bank debt has important
ramifications for international perceptions of the
financial system's resilience.
http://www.afr.com/markets/debt-markets/seniorbank-bonds-are-vulnerable-to-losses-20151110-gkv23f?
&utm_source=social&utm_medium=twitter&utm_cam
paign=nc&eid=socialn:twi-14omn0055-optimnnn:nonpaid-27062014-social_traffic-all-organicpostnnn-afro&campaign_code=nocode&promote_channel=social_t
witter
Kathimerini: Striking Greeks take to tensionfilled streets in austerity protest
Striking Greeks took to the streets on Thursday to
protest austerity measures, setting Alexis Tsipras'
government its biggest domestic challenge since he was
re-elected in September promising to cushion the impact
of economic hardship. Flights were grounded, hospitals
ran on skeleton staff, ships were docked at port and
public offices stayed shut across the country in the first
nationwide walkout called by Greece's largest private
and public sector unions in a year.

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/203373/article/ekathime
rini/news/striking-greeks-take-to-tension-filled-streetsin-austerity-protest
FT: Fresh wave of selling engulfs oil and metals
markets
A renewed sell-off in oil and metals has shaken investors
as fears grow that falling demand for commodities is
signalling a sharper slowdown in Chinas resourcehungry economy. Copper, considered a barometer for
global economic growth because of its wide range of
industrial uses, fell to a six-year low below $5,000 a
tonne on Thursday. Oil, which has tanked almost 20 per
cent since a shortlived rally in October, dropped to under
$45 a barrel on Thursday less than half the level it
traded at for much of this decade. While markets already
endured a commodity sell-off in August, traders and
analysts say the drop is more worrying this time as it
appears to be driven by concerns about demand rather
than a glut of supply.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e37e5c58-8964-11e590de-f44762bf9896.html#axzz3r2gne136
Telegraph: Half of all British jobs could be
replaced by robots, warns Bank of Englands
chief economist
As many as 15m jobs are under threat of replacement by
smart machines, the Bank of Englands chief economist
has warned. Andy Haldane has said that new generation
of increasingly creative robots could replace at risk
jobs over the next 20 years, such as those held by
accountants and sales people. Yet growing movements
towards using machines rather than workers could also
add fuel to arguments to keep interest rates on hold, he
said, as inflation could fall short of the Banks 2pc target
for longer.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-ofengland/11991704/Half-of-all-British-jobs-could-bereplaced-by-robots-warns-Bank-of-Englands-chiefeconomist.html

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.