Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Valuation Date
Circularity
Assumption Case
AR12
1H13
NLMK
11-Oct-2013
1
2
Link
Link
Case 2
m USD
PPE
Beginning Balance
Asset Disposals/(Acquisitions)
Sales of PPE
Capex
Depreciation
Ending Balance
Intangibles
Beginning Balance
Investments into intangibles
Amortisation
Ending balance
Retained Earnings
Beginning Balance
Share issuance/(repurchase)
Net Income
Dividends
NCI share of Net Income
Ending balance
NCI
Beginning balance
Add: NCI share of NI
Less: NCI divs
Ending balance
OWC items
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Other current assets
Accounts payable
Current Income tax liability
Net Balance
2010A
7,316,180
28,363
(26,362)
1,463,209
(279,748)
8,382,478
2011A
2012A
8,382,478
41,751
(26,980)
2,047,852
(402,093)
10,569,828
10,569,828
156,510
(28,692)
1,453,386
(544,227)
11,753,157
2013H1
11,753,157
(1,300)
374,979
(349,958)
10,981,399
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
11,753,157
(123,532)
(2,600)
749,958
(699,915)
11,677,068
11,677,068
(6,891)
875,780
(664,679)
11,881,279
11,881,279
(11,109)
1,069,315
(645,061)
12,294,424
12,294,424
(15,641)
1,229,442
(635,163)
12,873,062
12,873,062
(20,674)
1,416,037
(631,207)
13,637,218
13,637,218
(26,347)
1,363,722
(632,816)
14,341,777
14,341,777
(32,890)
1,290,760
(627,798)
14,971,849
141,922
(24,111)
117,811
117,811
(20,885)
96,926
96,926
(20,885)
76,041
76,041
(20,919)
55,122
55,122
(55,122)
-
11,582,368.0
230,362.7
(47,003)
4,350.9
11,770,078.5
11,770,078.5
482,344.7
(122,939)
9,110.1
12,138,594.1
12,138,594.1
733,218.0
(186,842)
13,848.4
12,698,818.4
12,698,818.4
997,514.8
(254,164)
18,840.2
13,461,009.2
13,461,009.2
1,280,109.6
(326,147)
24,177.6
14,439,149.2
14,439,149.2
1,631,978.2
(415,776)
30,823.4
15,686,174.9
15,686,174.9
2,007,623.4
(511,461)
37,918.3
17,220,255.6
(37,225)
(9,110)
(46,335)
(13,848)
(60,183)
(18,840)
(79,024)
(24,178)
(103,201)
(30,823)
(134,025)
(37,918)
(46,335)
(60,183)
(79,024)
(103,201)
(134,025)
(171,943)
1,591,221
2,620,234
49,082
1,608,816
81,980
2,569,741
1,680,357
2,728,665
52,027
1,650,689
92,450
2,717,910
1,799,571
2,879,777
55,929
1,716,877
97,638
2,920,762
1,909,288
3,008,775
59,564
1,768,916
99,849
3,108,863
203,490
181,136
158,611
141,922
(16,268)
181,136
(14,850)
158,611
(25,919)
141,922
(12,056)
129,115
9,171,068.0
10,261,214.0
11,098,635.0
11,582,368.0
1,331,316.0
(378,687)
31,065.0
10,261,214.0
1,261,130.0
(375,776)
42,192.0
11,098,635.0
610,157.0
(116,000)
(14,628)
11,582,368.0
68,297.0
3,149.0
11,538,347.0
(108,334)
31,065
(120,691)
42,192
(41,863)
(14,628)
(32,874)
3,149
(120,691)
(41,863)
(32,874)
5,776
(32,874)
(4,351)
(37,225)
1,259,596
1,580,068
51,994
1,107,434
18,803
1,765,421
1,572,641
2,828,433
59,355
1,622,679
10,994
2,826,756
1,490,951
2,826,933
30,394
1,462,105
23,800
2,862,373
1,497,143
2,530,187
26,581
1,608,587
44,219
2,401,105
1,497,143
2,530,187
26,581
1,601,602
41,992
2,410,318
1,513,933
2,526,343
46,523
1,575,022
65,453
2,446,325
2,025,665
3,141,132
63,436
1,821,641
93,960
3,314,631
Simplified Model
Revenue Growth
Case 1: Revenue Growth
Case 2: Revenue Growth
Case 3: Revenue Growth
Case 4: Revenue Growth
36.0%
40.4%
3.6%
(6.5%)
(6.5%)
-6.5%
-6.5%
-6.5%
-6.5%
1.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.0%
59.1%
66.3%
69.9%
73.6%
73.6%
73.6%
73.6%
73.6%
73.6%
71.8%
71.5%
71.8%
72.5%
73.6%
3.2%
4.7%
3.7%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
Selling expenses
Case 1: Selling expenses
Case 2: Selling expenses
Case 3: Selling expenses
Case 4: Selling expenses
8.5%
8.3%
9.4%
8.5%
1.48%
1.41%
1.40%
1.21%
Production Cost
Case 1: Production Cost
Case 2: Production Cost
Case 3: Production Cost
Case 4: Production Cost
SG&A
Case 1: SG&A
Case 2: SG&A
Case 3: SG&A
Case 4: SG&A
5.5%
6.5%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
6.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
7.5%
8.5%
7.5%
6.5%
6.5%
6.5%
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
6.5%
7.0%
6.5%
5.5%
5.5%
70.1%
69.4%
70.1%
71.5%
73.6%
68.4%
67.3%
68.4%
70.4%
73.6%
66.6%
65.3%
66.6%
69.3%
73.6%
64.9%
63.2%
64.9%
68.3%
73.6%
63.1%
61.1%
63.1%
67.2%
73.6%
4.0%
3.9%
4.0%
4.0%
4.2%
3.9%
3.8%
3.9%
4.0%
4.3%
3.8%
3.7%
3.8%
4.0%
4.4%
3.7%
3.6%
3.7%
4.0%
4.5%
3.6%
3.5%
3.6%
3.9%
4.6%
3.5%
3.3%
3.5%
3.9%
4.7%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.7%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.6%
8.8%
8.5%
8.5%
8.5%
8.6%
9.0%
8.5%
8.4%
8.5%
8.6%
9.1%
8.5%
8.4%
8.5%
8.7%
9.3%
8.5%
8.4%
8.5%
8.7%
9.4%
1.21%
1.21%
1.21%
1.21%
1.21%
1.23%
1.22%
1.23%
1.24%
1.26%
1.24%
1.23%
1.24%
1.27%
1.30%
1.25%
1.23%
1.25%
1.29%
1.34%
1.27%
1.24%
1.27%
1.32%
1.39%
1.28%
1.25%
1.28%
1.35%
1.43%
1.29%
1.25%
1.29%
1.37%
1.48%
Case 2
Irregular items
Loss on disposal of PP&E
as % of PPE Sales
(Losses)/gain on investments
FX gain/(loss)
Other expenses
Impairment losses
2010A
2011A
2012A
(9,657)
(36.6%)
(27,991)
(59,262)
(4,598)
(58,179)
(29,293)
(108.6%)
11,922
18,662
(14,337)
-
(38,051)
(132.6%)
(2,828)
3,282
(140,428)
-
20%
23%
1.5%
20%
25%
1.4%
20%
33%
1.4%
30.2%
27.7%
19.5%
1,259,596
55.1
55.1
55.1
55.1
1,572,641
48.9
48.9
48.9
48.9
1,490,951
44.8
44.8
44.8
44.8
Inventory
Case 1: Inventory days
Case 2: Inventory days
Case 3: Inventory days
Case 4: Inventory days
1,580,068
116.9
116.9
116.9
116.9
2,828,433
132.7
132.7
132.7
132.7
2,826,933
121.5
121.5
121.5
121.5
Tax
MTR
ETR
Taxes other than income tax
Dividend
Payout ratio
51,994
0.6%
59,355
0.5%
30,394
0.3%
1,107,434
1,622,679
1,462,105
479,627
643,753
514,030
9.7%
149,827
199,407
130,393
9.7%
9.7%
9.7%
8.3%
199,300
133,402
311,051
8.3%
8.3%
8.3%
6.1%
227,399
111,833
174,798
6.1%
6.1%
6.1%
466,988
34.6
34.6
34.6
34.6
818,729
38.4
38.4
38.4
38.4
758,044
32.6
32.6
32.6
32.6
120,287
97.5%
143,379
86.9%
166,841
98.3%
Divs payable
As % of total divs
Cash divs as % of total divs
2,102
0.6%
99.4%
2,061
0.5%
99.5%
1,521
1.3%
98.7%
ST capital lease
As % of average PPE
38,430
0.49%
14,757
0.16%
21,669
0.19%
18,803
4.8%
10,994
2.6%
23,800
7.8%
Non-current items
Other noncurrent assets
as % of total sales
26,356
0.32%
19,274
0.16%
38,052
0.31%
Other LT liabilities
as % of total sales
2,849
0.03%
398,489
3.40%
422,720
3.48%
Investments
Capex
Case 1: Capex
Case 2: Capex
Case 3: Capex
(1,463,209)
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
(2,047,852)
24.4%
24.4%
24.4%
(1,453,386)
13.8%
13.8%
13.8%
Case 4: Capex
Depreciation as % of beginning PP&E
Case 1: Depreciation as % of beginning PP&E
Case 2: Depreciation as % of beginning PP&E
Case 3: Depreciation as % of beginning PP&E
Case 4: Depreciation as % of beginning PP&E
20.0%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
24.4%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
13.8%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
Sales of PPE
As % of beginning PPE
Investments in Intangibles as % of beginning balance
Amortisation of intangibles
Amortisation of intangibles as % of beginning balance
(26,362)
0.36%
(16,268)
8.0%
(26,980)
0.32%
(14,850)
8.2%
(28,692)
0.27%
(25,919)
16.3%
n.a.
494,654
(107,338)
(28,363)
(679,245)
760,166
54,272
(41,751)
10,873
786,141
276
(156,510)
Debt
Operating Cash
Rate on revolver
Blended rate on cash balance
3.85%
2.88%
2.70%
902,833
677,306
108,408
104,990
12,783
36,643
6,971
48.8%
36.6%
5.9%
5.7%
0.7%
2.0%
0.4%
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
Options Out
Diluted NOSH
NCI as % of Net Income
2.3%
5,993,227,240
3.3%
(2.4%)
2.5%
0.5%
0.5%
5,993,227,240
56.82
1.79
365
30.3663
30.4769
29.3830
32.1961
31.0903
30.3727
2013H1
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
(5,623)
(432.5%)
(3,535)
(31,676)
(18,450)
-
(2,600)
(100.0%)
(6,006)
(63,352)
(36,900)
-
(6,891)
(100.0%)
(5,911)
(26,527)
(51,715)
-
(11,109)
(100.0%)
(5,883)
(27,826)
(54,249)
-
(15,641)
(100.0%)
(5,856)
(29,058)
(56,650)
-
(20,674)
(100.0%)
(5,830)
(30,205)
(58,888)
-
(26,347)
(100.0%)
(5,803)
(31,255)
(60,934)
-
20%
65%
1.2%
20%
27%
1.4%
20%
27%
1.4%
20%
27%
1.4%
20%
27%
1.4%
20%
27%
1.4%
20%
27%
1.4%
20.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
25.0%
1,497,143
48.1
48.1
48.1
48.1
1,497,143
48.1
48.1
48.1
48.1
1,513,933
47.5
47.9
48.3
48.3
1,591,221
47.0
47.7
48.4
48.6
1,680,357
46.4
47.5
48.6
48.9
1,799,571
45.9
47.3
48.8
49.1
1,909,288
45.3
47.2
49.0
49.4
2,530,187
110.4
110.4
110.4
110.4
2,530,187
110.4
110.4
110.4
110.4
2,526,343
110.4
111.2
112.1
112.2
2,620,234
110.4
112.1
113.7
114.0
2,728,665
110.4
112.9
115.4
115.8
2,879,777
110.4
113.7
117.0
117.6
3,008,775
110.4
114.6
118.7
119.4
26,581
0.2%
26,581
0.2%
46,523
0.4%
49,082
0.4%
52,027
0.4%
55,929
0.4%
59,564
0.4%
1,608,587
1,601,602
1,575,022
1,608,816
1,650,689
1,716,877
1,768,916
780,371
780,371
743,923
735,540
729,008
730,933
724,088
9.3%
252,338
91,310
436,723
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
218,119
158,737
205,414
9.3%
9.3%
9.3%
9.0%
243,748
156,218
216,506
9.0%
9.2%
9.3%
8.7%
268,123
155,476
227,115
8.6%
9.0%
9.2%
8.4%
290,243
154,772
237,165
8.3%
8.8%
9.2%
8.1%
309,109
154,068
246,533
7.9%
8.7%
9.1%
7.8%
323,791
153,364
255,100
7.6%
8.5%
9.1%
683,114
29.8
29.8
29.8
29.8
683,114
29.8
29.8
29.8
29.8
684,608
29.8
30.1
30.5
30.5
712,638
29.8
30.5
31.1
31.2
744,783
29.8
30.8
31.8
31.9
788,788
29.8
31.1
32.5
32.6
826,964
29.8
31.5
33.2
33.3
120,376
87.4%
120,376
87.4%
126,106
89.2%
137,242
91.0%
149,992
92.8%
166,162
94.6%
182,276
96.4%
7,879
n.a.
n.a.
378
0.8%
99.2%
990
0.8%
99.2%
1,504
0.8%
99.2%
2,046
0.8%
99.2%
2,625
0.8%
99.2%
3,347
0.8%
99.2%
16,847
0.15%
17,363
0.15%
19,395
0.16%
21,892
0.18%
24,861
0.20%
28,368
0.21%
32,241
0.23%
44,219
34.8%
41,992
34.8%
65,453
31.1%
81,980
27.3%
92,450
23.6%
97,638
19.9%
99,849
16.2%
30,639
0.54%
61,278
0.54%
58,236
0.50%
57,259
0.47%
56,264
0.44%
55,722
0.40%
54,271
0.37%
157,437
1.38%
157,437
1.38%
173,046
1.50%
196,540
1.61%
223,147
1.73%
255,809
1.84%
289,398
1.96%
(374,979)
6.4%
6.4%
6.4%
(749,958)
6.4%
6.4%
6.4%
(875,780)
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
(1,069,315)
10.0%
9.0%
8.5%
(1,229,442)
11.0%
10.0%
9.0%
(1,416,037)
12.0%
11.0%
10.0%
(1,363,722)
11.0%
10.0%
9.0%
6.4%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.4%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.5%
5.7%
5.6%
5.7%
5.8%
6.0%
7.0%
5.4%
5.2%
5.4%
5.6%
6.0%
8.0%
5.2%
4.9%
5.2%
5.4%
6.0%
9.0%
4.9%
4.5%
4.9%
5.3%
6.0%
8.5%
4.6%
4.2%
4.6%
5.1%
6.0%
(1,300)
0.01%
(12,056)
8.5%
(2,600)
0.02%
(24,111)
17.0%
(6,891)
0.06%
(20,885)
17.7%
(11,109)
0.10%
(20,885)
21.5%
(15,641)
0.13%
(20,919)
27.5%
(20,674)
0.17%
(55,122)
100.0%
(26,347)
0.20%
n.a.
(2,185)
753,381
151
-
(4,370)
753,381
302
123,532
4,344
753,381
302
-
4,344
753,381
302
-
4,344
753,381
302
-
4,344
753,381
302
-
4,344
753,381
302
-
1.61%
800,000
3.72%
2.76%
843,200
3.79%
2.76%
884,517
3.96%
2.76%
923,657
4.27%
2.76%
960,141
4.60%
2.76%
993,506
4.82%
2.76%
3.72%
4.34%
3.18%
1.99%
1.44%
3.54%
10.00%
4.24%
3.79%
4.34%
3.33%
2.06%
1.55%
3.65%
10.00%
4.31%
3.96%
4.34%
3.67%
2.61%
1.90%
4.00%
10.00%
4.63%
4.27%
4.34%
4.27%
3.34%
2.51%
4.61%
10.00%
5.11%
4.60%
4.34%
4.89%
4.36%
3.13%
5.23%
10.00%
5.68%
4.82%
4.34%
5.30%
5.17%
3.53%
5.63%
10.00%
6.08%
80.0%
80.0%
80.0%
80.0%
80.0%
80.0%
0.244%
0.363%
0.227%
0.340%
0.400%
0.438%
0.415%
0.445%
0.875%
0.981%
0.735%
0.798%
1.580%
1.716%
1.325%
1.409%
2.610%
2.732%
1.955%
2.025%
3.445%
3.543%
2.370%
2.430%
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
4.6%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
1.9%
7.1%
7.1%
13.5%
1.8%
5.4%
5.4%
11.8%
4.9%
4.9%
10.0%
4.4%
4.4%
8.3%
4.0%
4.0%
6.5%
3.5%
3.5%
4.8%
31.6592
31.6592
32.2930
31.9761
31.9761
31.6592
31.6592
31.6592
31.6592
31.6592
31.6592
31.6592
31.6592
31.0394
32.8395
2019E
(32,890)
(100.0%)
(5,776)
(32,193)
(62,762)
-
20%
27%
1.4%
25.0%
2,025,665
44.8
47.0
49.2
49.7
3,141,132
110.4
115.4
120.4
121.2
63,436
0.4%
1,821,641
715,207
7.5%
333,505
152,660
262,753
7.2%
8.3%
9.0%
866,267
29.8
31.8
33.8
34.0
199,860
98.3%
4,117
0.8%
99.2%
36,190
0.25%
93,960
12.5%
52,397
0.33%
326,273
2.07%
(1,290,760)
10.0%
9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
4.4%
3.8%
4.4%
4.9%
6.0%
(32,890)
0.24%
n.a.
4,344
753,381
302
-
1,023,311
4.97%
2.76%
4.97%
4.34%
5.56%
5.81%
3.78%
5.88%
10.00%
6.37%
80.0%
4.115%
4.184%
2.635%
2.676%
5,993,227,240
5,993,227,240
1.9%
3.0%
3.0%
3.0%
31.6592
31.6592
Case 2
PBT
Current DTA add/(draw)
Noncurrent DTA add/(draw)
DTL add/(draw)
Taxable Income
ETR
Tax paid
2010A
(390,972)
2011A
2012A
(24,182)
215,726
(313,065)
44,072
12,452
(78,574)
(421,034)
(304,712)
Current DTA
Beginning Balance
(Usage)/Additions
Ending balance
62,959
Noncurrent DTA
Beginning Balance
(Usage)/Additions
Ending balance
249,565
DTL
Beginning Balance
(Usage)/Additions
Ending balance
792,240
(56.1%)
1,008.7%
(78.1%)
233.3%
5.3%
(11.0%)
2013H1
195,466
58,389
(60,583)
46,631
239,903
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
(127,169)
351,126
(12,592)
(49,913)
158,448
447,069
27.0%
(120,763)
693,076
(24,270)
(37,796)
149,122
780,131
27.0%
(210,731)
1,032,983
(10,073)
(39,930)
126,758
1,109,737
27.0%
(299,765)
1,388,650
(5,220)
(32,371)
96,934
1,447,993
27.0%
(391,135)
1,770,150
(3,205)
(24,385)
71,582
1,814,142
27.0%
(490,040)
121,348
62,959
(12,592)
50,367
50,367
(24,270)
26,098
26,098
(10,073)
16,024
16,024
(5,220)
10,805
10,805
(3,205)
7,600
188,982
249,565
(49,913)
199,652
199,652
(37,796)
161,856
161,856
(39,930)
121,925
121,925
(32,371)
89,554
89,554
(24,385)
65,169
745,609
792,240
(158,448)
633,792
633,792
(149,122)
484,670
484,670
(126,758)
357,912
357,912
(96,934)
260,978
260,978
(71,582)
189,395
92.7%
(24.3%)
5.9%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
2018E
2019E
2,247,850
(2,161)
(17,911)
52,196
2,279,973
27.0%
(615,872)
2,759,262
(1,520)
(13,034)
37,879
2,782,587
27.0%
(751,639)
7,600
(2,161)
5,439
5,439
(1,520)
3,919
65,169
(17,911)
47,258
47,258
(13,034)
34,224
189,395
(52,196)
137,200
137,200
(37,879)
99,321
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
Case 2
2010A
2011A
m USD
Cash balance available for repayment
Operating cash
Cash flow available for debt repayment
2012A
2013H1
-
1,058,153
78,716
2013E
2014E
2015E
1,361,939
800,000
388,292
895,523
843,200
67,325
2016E
860,489
884,517
(25,928)
2017E
911,363
923,657
1,377
2018E
1,010,476
960,141
26,944
2019E
1,064,822
993,506
322,114
1,001,805
1,023,311
671,402
649,896
950,231
119,648
(49,957)
(10,917)
77,279
393,430
(472,618)
(33,205)
184,189
445,012
446,127
(351,934)
50,000
477,614
86,443
134,232
434,095
523,406
41,496
699,896
477,614
86,443
134,232
434,095
523,406
41,496
699,896
794,277
(382,091)
412,186
1,512,186
(69,154)
1,443,031
1,793,031
(107,386)
1,685,646
2,135,646
(347,276)
1,788,369
2,238,369
(418,725)
1,819,645
2,269,645
(33,197)
2,236,447
2,786,447
(559,917)
2,226,531
Beginning debt
Issuance/(Repayment)
Ending non-revolver debt
Ending Cash Balance
1,170,622
1,024,448
4,666,365
4,785,961
4,666,365
(854,709)
3,811,656
3,811,656
(102,359)
3,709,297
3,709,297
76,803
3,786,100
3,786,100
97,736
3,883,836
3,883,836
27,402
3,911,238
3,911,238
(385,131)
3,526,107
3,526,107
(509,917)
3,016,191
1,058,153
1,361,939
895,523
860,489
911,363
1,010,476
1,064,822
1,001,805
1,163,290
2.70%
28,126
1.61%
21,964
2.76%
26,977
2.76%
24,247
2.76%
24,466
2.76%
26,537
2.76%
28,656
2.76%
28,536
2.76%
29,896
(27,833)
(13,740)
(13,740)
(24,322)
(12,950)
(35,200)
(24,500)
(13,424)
(26,533)
(12,635)
(12,635)
(28,025)
(10,498)
(27,833)
(12,950)
(35,200)
(24,500)
(13,424)
(26,533)
(12,635)
(12,635)
-
(12,950)
(35,200)
(24,500)
(13,424)
(26,533)
(12,635)
(12,635)
-
(35,200)
(24,500)
(13,424)
(26,533)
(12,635)
(12,635)
-
(35,200)
(24,500)
(13,424)
(26,533)
(12,635)
(12,635)
-
(35,200)
(24,500)
(13,424)
(26,533)
(12,635)
(12,635)
-
(24,500)
(13,424)
(26,533)
(12,635)
(12,635)
-
(256,034)
(22,443)
(278,476)
(165,710)
(55,933)
(221,642)
(137,876)
(68,948)
(206,824)
(124,926)
(83,733)
(208,659)
(124,926)
(93,267)
(218,193)
(124,926)
(108,633)
(233,559)
(89,726)
(124,559)
(214,285)
800,000
-
300,000
300,000
300,000
300,000
300,000
350,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
450,000
400,000
500,000
450,000
450,000
450,000
600,000
700,000
450,000
400,000
450,000
600,000
700,000
550,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
(20,471)
(312,734)
(7,879)
(4,988)
(3,873)
(1,934)
(34,929)
(157,932)
(157,932)
(315,864)
-
(157,932)
(800,000)
(500,000)
(329,702)
(276,259)
902,833
677,306
108,408
104,990
12,783
36,643
6,971
Case 2
'000 USD
Revenue
Growth (%)
Production cost
D&A
Gross Profit
Margin (%)
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013H1
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
8,350,748
36.0%
(4,933,236)
(296,016)
3,121,496
37.4%
11,728,556
40.4%
(7,780,243)
(416,943)
3,531,370
30.1%
12,156,592
3.6%
(8,494,438)
(570,146)
3,092,008
25.4%
5,685,024
(6.5%)
(4,182,578)
(362,013)
1,140,433
20.1%
11,370,048
(6.5%)
(8,365,156)
(724,026)
2,280,866
20.1%
11,540,599
1.5%
(8,290,079)
(685,564)
2,564,956
22.2%
12,175,332
5.5%
(8,534,449)
(665,946)
2,974,937
24.4%
12,905,852
6.0%
(8,822,236)
(656,082)
3,427,534
26.6%
13,873,790
7.5%
(9,242,803)
(686,329)
3,944,659
28.4%
14,775,587
6.5%
(9,586,813)
(632,816)
4,555,958
30.8%
15,736,000
6.5%
(9,936,493)
(627,798)
5,171,708
32.9%
SG&A
Selling expenses
Taxes other than Income Tax
Impairment losses
Operating Profit
Margin (%)
(263,146)
(708,868)
(123,311)
(58,179)
1,967,992
23.6%
(556,169)
(972,685)
(165,073)
1,837,443
15.7%
(448,268)
(1,143,610)
(169,786)
###
1,330,344
10.9%
(231,441)
(484,356)
(68,894)
355,742
6.3%
(462,882)
(968,712)
(137,788)
711,484
6.3%
(459,458)
(982,578)
(141,406)
981,514
8.5%
(473,790)
(1,035,918)
(150,820)
1,314,409
10.8%
(490,623)
(1,097,330)
(161,604)
1,677,977
13.0%
(514,956)
(1,178,831)
(175,589)
2,075,283
15.0%
(535,154)
(1,254,604)
(188,988)
2,577,211
17.4%
(555,802)
(1,335,247)
(203,388)
3,077,271
19.6%
(9,657)
(27,991)
45,071
(189,267)
(59,262)
(4,598)
1,722,288
20.6%
(29,293)
11,922
29,531
(171,764)
18,662
(14,337)
1,682,164
14.3%
(38,051)
(2,828)
28,581
(266,031)
3,282
(140,428)
914,869
7.5%
(5,623)
(3,535)
21,964
(122,956)
(31,676)
(18,450)
195,466
3.4%
(2,600)
(6,006)
26,977
(278,476)
(63,352)
(36,900)
351,126
3.1%
(6,891)
(5,911)
24,247
(221,642)
(26,527)
(51,715)
693,076
6.0%
(11,109)
(5,883)
24,466
(206,824)
(27,826)
(54,249)
1,032,983
8.5%
(15,641)
(5,856)
26,537
(208,659)
(29,058)
(56,650)
1,388,650
10.8%
(20,674)
(5,830)
28,656
(218,193)
(30,205)
(58,888)
1,770,150
12.8%
(26,347)
(5,803)
28,536
(233,559)
(31,255)
(60,934)
2,247,850
15.2%
(32,890)
(5,776)
29,896
(214,285)
(32,193)
(62,762)
2,759,262
17.5%
5.1%
6.7%
3.2%
3.9%
5.1%
5.7%
4.2%
5.1%
6.6%
7.3%
5.3%
6.0%
4.8%
5.5%
4.7%
5.4%
4.8%
5.6%
5.8%
6.6%
6.1%
7.1%
Core EBIT
Margin (%)
1,866,484
22.4%
1,824,397
15.6%
1,152,319
9.5%
296,458
5.2%
602,626
5.3%
890,471
7.7%
1,215,341
10.0%
1,570,772
12.2%
1,959,686
14.1%
2,452,873
16.6%
2,943,651
18.7%
EBITDA
Margin (%)
2,162,500
25.9%
2,241,340
19.1%
1,722,465
14.2%
658,471
11.6%
1,326,652
11.7%
1,576,034
13.7%
1,881,287
15.5%
2,226,853
17.3%
2,646,015
19.1%
3,085,689
20.9%
3,571,449
22.7%
Tax expense
ETR %
Net Income
Margin (%)
(390,972)
22.7%
1,331,316
15.9%
(421,034)
25.0%
1,261,130
10.8%
(304,712)
33.3%
610,157
5.0%
(127,169)
65.1%
68,297
1.2%
(120,763)
34.4%
230,363
2.0%
(210,731)
30.4%
482,345
4.2%
(299,765)
29.0%
733,218
6.0%
(391,135)
28.2%
997,515
7.7%
(490,040)
27.7%
1,280,110
9.2%
(615,872)
27.4%
1,631,978
11.0%
(751,639)
27.2%
2,007,623
12.8%
Associate Income
(Net Income)/loss for NCI
NI for NLMK shareholders
(107,338)
31,065
1,255,043
54,272
42,192
1,357,594
276
(14,628)
595,805
151
3,149
71,597
302
4,351
235,016
302
9,110
491,757
302
13,848
747,368
302
18,840
1,016,657
302
24,178
1,304,589
302
30,823
1,663,104
302
37,918
2,045,844
378,687
375,776
0.06
1.84
116,000
0.02
0.60
47,003
0.01
0.25
122,939
0.02
0.66
186,842
0.03
0.99
254,164
0.04
1.34
326,147
0.05
1.72
415,776
0.07
2.20
511,461
0.09
2.70
1.00
1.11
1.03
1.04
0.97
0.97
0.99
1.00
1.02
1.03
1.05
Declared Dividends
Dividend per share (USD)
Dividend per share (RUB)
Sales/Capital
Case 2
'000 USD
Net Income
Depreciation
Amortisation
(Inc)/Dec in ST DTA
(Inc)/Dec in LT DTA
(Inc)/Dec in Goodwill
(Inc)/Dec in Other LT assets
Inc/(Dec) in DTL
Inc/(Dec) in Other LT liabilities
OWC items
(Inc)/Dec in Accounts Receivable
(Inc)/Dec in Inventory
(Inc)/Dec in Other current assets
Inc/(Dec) in Accounts payable
Inc/(Dec) in Current Income tax liability
Cash from Operations
2010A
1,331,316
2011A
1,261,130
2012A
(41,751)
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
610,157
767,715
68,297
362,013
(58,389)
60,583
32,760
7,413
(46,631)
(265,283)
230,363
699,915
24,111
12,592
49,913
32,760
(23,226)
(158,448)
(265,283)
482,345
664,679
20,885
24,270
37,796
3,042
(149,122)
15,609
733,218
645,061
20,885
10,073
39,930
977
(126,758)
23,494
997,515
635,163
20,919
5,220
32,371
995
(96,934)
26,607
1,280,110
631,207
55,122
3,205
24,385
543
(71,582)
32,662
1,631,978
632,816
2,161
17,911
1,450
(52,196)
33,589
2,007,623
627,798
1,520
13,034
1,874
(37,879)
36,875
166,715
169,858
31,628
(69,932)
12,471
1,688,612
(6,192)
296,746
3,813
146,482
20,419
622,031
(6,192)
296,746
3,813
139,497
18,192
1,054,752
(16,790)
3,844
(19,942)
(26,580)
23,461
1,063,497
(77,288)
(93,891)
(2,559)
33,794
16,527
1,223,463
(89,136)
(108,432)
(2,945)
41,873
10,470
1,473,686
(119,214)
(151,111)
(3,902)
66,188
5,188
1,752,799
(109,717)
(128,998)
(3,635)
52,039
2,211
2,079,609
(116,377)
(132,357)
(3,872)
52,725
(5,888)
2,445,077
1,688,612
666,468
1,150,695
1,150,553
1,300,218
1,533,029
1,796,791
2,111,733
2,468,402
(156,510)
(9,609)
(374,979)
1,300
-
(1,609,896)
(383,288)
4,370
(749,958)
2,600
123,532
(619,456)
(4,344)
(875,780)
6,891
(873,233)
(4,344)
(1,069,315)
11,109
(1,062,550)
(4,344)
(1,229,442)
15,641
(1,218,145)
(4,344)
(1,416,037)
20,674
(1,399,707)
(4,344)
(1,363,722)
26,347
(1,341,719)
(4,344)
(1,290,760)
32,890
(1,262,214)
(102,359)
(122,939)
(225,298)
76,803
(186,842)
(110,039)
97,736
(254,164)
(156,428)
27,402
(326,147)
(298,745)
(385,131)
(415,776)
(800,907)
(509,917)
(511,461)
(1,021,377)
(1,453,386)
(28,363)
2013H1
(116,529)
149,135
(854,709)
(47,003)
(901,712)
(37,813)
387,878
(466,416)
(35,034)
50,875
99,112
54,347
(63,017)
161,485
1,058,153
1,361,939
895,523
860,489
911,363
1,010,476
1,064,822
1,001,805
1,446,031
895,523
860,489
911,363
1,010,476
1,064,822
1,001,805
1,163,290
149,135
(164,501)
(516,335)
(116,529)
Case 2
2010A
2011A
2012A
2013H1
2013E
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
'000 USD
Current assets
Cash, equivalents & STI
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Other current assets
Deferred income tax assets
Total Current Assets
1,170,622
1,259,596
1,580,068
51,994
43,069
4,105,349
1,024,448
1,572,641
2,828,433
59,355
18,887
5,503,764
1,058,153
1,490,951
2,826,933
30,394
62,959
5,469,390
1,361,939
1,497,143
2,530,187
26,581
121,348
5,537,198
895,523
1,497,143
2,530,187
26,581
50,367
4,999,801
860,489
1,513,933
2,526,343
46,523
26,098
4,973,386
911,363
1,591,221
2,620,234
49,082
16,024
5,187,924
1,010,476
1,680,357
2,728,665
52,027
10,805
5,482,329
1,064,822
1,799,571
2,879,777
55,929
7,600
5,807,699
1,001,805
1,909,288
3,008,775
59,564
5,439
5,984,871
1,163,290
2,025,665
3,141,132
63,436
3,919
6,397,441
Noncurrent assets
Long-term Investments
PP&E
Intangibles
Goodwill
Deferred income tax assets
Other non-current assets
Total Noncurrent Assets
687,665
8,382,478
181,136
494,654
21,387
26,356
9,793,676
8,420
10,569,828
158,611
760,166
237,113
19,274
11,753,412
19,293
11,753,157
141,922
786,141
249,565
38,052
12,988,130
17,108
10,981,399
129,115
753,381
188,982
30,639
12,100,624
14,923
11,677,068
117,811
753,381
199,652
61,278
12,824,113
19,267
11,881,279
96,926
753,381
161,856
58,236
12,970,944
23,611
12,294,424
76,041
753,381
121,925
57,259
13,326,641
27,955
12,873,062
55,122
753,381
89,554
56,264
13,855,338
32,299
13,637,218
753,381
65,169
55,722
14,543,789
36,643
14,341,777
753,381
47,258
54,271
15,233,331
40,987
14,971,849
753,381
34,224
52,397
15,852,839
13,899,025
17,257,176
18,457,520
17,637,822
17,823,914
17,944,330
18,514,565
19,337,668
20,351,488
21,218,202
22,250,280
Current Liabilities
Accounts payable
Revolver debt
ST Loans and Borrowings
Current Income tax liability
Total Current Liabilities
1,107,434
525,559
18,803
1,651,796
1,622,679
1,306,263
10,994
2,939,936
1,462,105
1,816,169
23,800
3,302,074
1,608,587
993,972
44,219
2,646,778
1,601,602
1,483,513
41,992
3,127,106
1,575,022
1,443,674
65,453
3,084,149
1,608,816
1,473,566
81,980
3,164,362
1,650,689
1,511,606
92,450
3,254,744
1,716,877
1,522,271
97,638
3,336,785
1,768,916
1,372,376
99,849
3,241,140
1,821,641
1,173,914
93,960
3,089,516
Noncurrent liabilities
Deferred Income tax liability
Long-term borrowings
Other long-term liabilities
Total noncurrent liabilities
400,601
2,289,965
2,849
2,693,415
713,666
3,099,924
398,489
4,212,079
792,240
2,850,196
422,720
4,065,156
745,609
3,791,989
157,437
4,695,035
633,792
2,328,144
157,437
3,119,373
484,670
2,265,623
173,046
2,923,340
-
357,912
2,312,534
196,540
2,866,986
260,978
2,372,231
223,147
2,856,356
189,395
2,388,968
255,809
2,834,173
137,200
2,153,731
289,398
2,580,330
99,321
1,842,277
326,273
2,267,870
Shareholders' Equity
Issued shares
Statutory reserve
APIC
Accumulated other comprehensive loss
Retained earnings
NCI
Total Shareholders' Equity
221,173
10,267
98,752
(916,901)
10,261,214
(120,691)
9,553,814
221,173
10,267
306,391
(1,489,442)
11,098,635
(41,863)
10,105,161
221,173
10,267
306,391
(997,035)
11,582,368
(32,874)
11,090,290
221,173
10,267
256,922
(1,736,476)
11,538,347
5,776
10,296,009
221,173
10,267
306,391
(997,035)
11,770,078
(37,225)
11,273,650
221,173
10,267
306,391
(997,035)
12,138,594
(46,335)
11,633,055
221,173
10,267
306,391
(997,035)
12,698,818
(60,183)
12,179,431
221,173
10,267
306,391
(997,035)
13,461,009
(79,024)
12,922,782
221,173
10,267
306,391
(997,035)
14,439,149
(103,201)
13,876,744
221,173
10,267
306,391
(997,035)
15,686,175
(134,025)
15,092,946
221,173
10,267
306,391
(997,035)
17,220,256
(171,943)
16,589,109
13,899,025
17,257,176
18,457,520
17,637,822
17,520,128
17,640,544
18,210,779
19,033,882
20,047,702
20,914,416
21,946,494
303,786.0
303,786.0
303,786.0
303,786.0
303,786.0
303,786.0
303,786.0
2,815,524
1.3x
12.9x
4,406,187
2.0x
12.8x
4,666,365
2.7x
4.9x
4,785,961
3.6x
2.9x
3,811,656
2.9x
2.4x
3,709,297
2.4x
4.5x
3,786,100
2.0x
6.7x
3,883,836
1.7x
8.6x
3,911,238
1.5x
10.3x
3,526,107
1.1x
12.0x
3,016,191
0.8x
16.0x
Total Assets
Balance Check
Debt Metrics
Total debt
Total debt/EBITDA
Interest Coverage Ratio
2010A
Case 2
2011A
2012A
m USD
EBIT
Margin %
Growth %
2013E
602,626
5.3%
(47.7%)
Depreciation
Amortisation
(Tax expense)
(Capex)
Other investing flows
(Inc)/Dec in OWC items
(Inc)/Dec in Other Operating Items
(1,096,952)
Unlevered FCF
425,651
699,915
24,111
(120,763)
(749,958)
2,600
452,055
(255,749)
654,837
Valuation Date
Stub
Year count
11-Oct-2013
22.5%
0.1
WACC (USD)
8.16%
8.66%
9.16%
9.66%
10.16%
10.66%
11.16%
99.1%
99.1%
99.0%
99.0%
98.9%
98.9%
98.8%
PV of Cash Flows
3,382,290
PV of TV
2.0%
14,756,939
8.66%
9.16%
9.66%
10.16%
10.66%
11.16%
3,327,421
3,273,936
3,221,790
3,170,942
3,121,352
3,072,981
13,292,611
12,043,015
10,965,747
10,028,814
9,207,628
8,482,980
IMM Valuation
WACC (USD)
8.16%
8.66%
9.16%
9.66%
10.16%
10.66%
11.16%
PV of Cash Flows
3,382,290
3,327,421
3,273,936
3,221,790
3,170,942
3,121,352
3,072,981
TV EBITDA m
2.0%
4.3x
3.9x
3.5x
3.2x
2.9x
2.7x
2.5x
Exit Multiple
WACC (USD)
8.16%
8.66%
9.16%
9.66%
10.16%
10.66%
11.16%
PV of Cash Flows
3,382,290
3,327,421
3,273,936
3,221,790
3,170,942
3,121,352
3,072,981
TV based on m
6.0x
13,154,123
12,781,835
12,421,721
12,073,330
11,736,229
11,410,003
11,094,255
Net Debt
Revolver debt
ST Loans and Borrowings
PV of leases
Long-term borrowings
Cash
Net Debt
1,483,513
74,074
2,328,144
895,523
2,990,208
2.0%
2.53
2.27
2.06
1.87
1.70
1.56
1.43
2.5%
2.76
2.47
2.22
2.01
1.82
1.66
1.52
8.16%
8.66%
9.16%
9.66%
10.16%
10.66%
11.16%
2.0%
61.22
55.08
49.81
45.25
41.26
37.74
34.62
2.5%
66.81
59.73
53.73
48.58
44.12
40.21
36.77
8.2x
8.2x
Forward Valuation
EBITDA multiple
EV
Add cash
less Debt
less NCI
Market Cap
Share px
Divs
IRR
14,153,382
1,058,153
(4,666,365)
10,545,170
10,901,011
895,523
(3,811,656)
7,984,878
54.70
42.18
0.25
(68.2%)
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
2019E
890,471
7.7%
47.8%
1,215,341
10.0%
36.5%
1,570,772
12.2%
29.2%
1,959,686
14.1%
24.8%
2,452,873
16.6%
25.2%
2,943,651
18.7%
20.0%
664,679
20,885
(210,731)
(875,780)
6,891
(36,007)
18,652
645,061
20,885
(299,765)
(1,069,315)
11,109
(123,416)
24,470
635,163
20,919
(391,135)
(1,229,442)
15,641
(148,169)
27,602
631,207
55,122
(490,040)
(1,416,037)
20,674
(202,852)
33,205
632,816
(615,872)
(1,363,722)
26,347
(188,101)
35,039
627,798
(751,639)
(1,290,760)
32,890
(205,768)
38,749
479,059
424,371
501,350
590,965
979,381
1,394,921
100.0%
0.7
100.0%
1.7
100.0%
2.7
100.0%
3.7
100.0%
4.7
###
5.7
Discount Factor
94.5%
94.2%
93.9%
93.6%
93.3%
93.0%
92.6%
87.4%
86.7%
86.0%
85.3%
84.7%
84.0%
83.4%
80.8%
79.8%
78.8%
77.8%
76.8%
75.9%
75.0%
74.7%
73.4%
72.2%
70.9%
69.8%
68.6%
67.4%
69.0%
67.6%
66.1%
64.7%
63.3%
62.0%
60.7%
63.8%
62.2%
60.6%
59.0%
57.5%
56.0%
54.6%
2.0%
18,139,228
Enterprise Value
2.5%
19,522,681
3.0%
21,174,494
PV of TV
2.5%
16,140,391
3.0%
17,792,204
14,442,848
13,011,265
11,789,533
10,736,217
9,820,054
9,017,015
TV EBITDA multiple
2.5%
5.0x
4.2x
3.8x
3.5x
3.2x
2.9x
2.7x
TV based on multiple
7.0x
15,346,476
14,912,141
14,492,008
14,085,552
13,692,267
13,311,670
12,943,298
15,796,479
14,136,820
12,737,100
11,542,486
10,512,482
9,616,535
3.0%
5.9x
4.6x
4.1x
3.7x
3.4x
3.1x
2.8x
8.0x
17,538,830
17,042,447
16,562,295
16,097,773
15,648,305
15,213,337
14,792,340
16,620,032
15,316,951
14,187,536
13,199,756
12,328,979
11,555,961
2.0%
14.2x
13.1x
12.1x
11.2x
10.4x
9.8x
9.2x
6.0x
16,536,412
16,109,257
15,695,657
15,295,120
14,907,170
14,531,355
14,167,237
17,770,270
16,285,200
15,011,323
13,907,159
12,941,406
12,089,997
19,123,901
17,410,756
15,958,890
14,713,427
13,633,833
12,689,516
Enterprise Value
2.5%
15.3x
14.0x
12.8x
11.8x
11.0x
10.3x
9.6x
3.0%
16.6x
15.0x
13.7x
12.6x
11.6x
10.8x
10.1x
Enterprise Value
7.0x
18,728,766
18,239,562
17,765,944
17,307,341
16,863,208
16,433,022
16,016,279
8.0x
20,921,120
20,369,868
19,836,231
19,319,563
18,819,247
18,334,689
17,865,322
Exit Multiple
hare
3.0%
3.03
2.69
2.41
2.16
1.96
1.78
1.62
8.16%
8.66%
9.16%
9.66%
10.16%
10.66%
11.16%
6.0x
2.26
2.19
2.12
2.05
1.99
1.93
1.86
8.0x
2.99
2.90
2.81
2.72
2.64
2.56
2.48
8.16%
8.66%
9.16%
9.66%
10.16%
10.66%
11.16%
6.0x
54.74
53.02
51.35
49.73
48.16
46.64
45.17
8.0x
72.46
70.23
68.08
65.99
63.97
62.01
60.11
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
8.2x
hare
3.0%
73.49
65.20
58.28
52.41
47.38
43.01
39.20
8.2x
8.2x
12,950,171
860,489
(3,709,297)
10,101,362
15,458,409
911,363
(3,786,100)
12,583,672
18,297,907
1,010,476
(3,883,836)
15,424,546
21,742,132
1,064,822
(3,911,238)
18,895,716
25,354,902
1,001,805
(3,526,107)
22,830,600
53.89
0.66
0.1%
66.47
0.99
10.6%
81.48
1.34
14.5%
99.82
1.72
16.6%
120.60
2.20
17.6%
29,346,363
1,163,290
(3,016,191)
###
27,493,463
145.23
2.70
18.2%
Case 2
Risk-free rate
Levered raw beta
Market Risk premium
Country risk premium
Ke
USD
2.63%
1.23
6.70%
1.70%
12.95%
RUB
7.44%
1.23
6.70%
1.70%
17.76%
Pre-tax Kd estimate
ETR
Kd
5.25%
27.01%
3.83%
7.99%
27.01%
5.83%
36.15%
63.85%
36.85%
63.15%
9.66%
13.37%
WACC
Case 2
Non-controlling interest valuation
Book Value
% Share of NCI in NI
Current share px
Current mkt cap
Group '13 PE ratio
NI share of NCI '13
MV of NCI at Group PE
2010A
(120,691)
-0.4%
2011A
(41,863)
-0.4%
2012A
2013H1
(32,874)
0.1%
2013E
(37,225)
-1.9%
56.8
10,545,169,906
17.3x
(4,351)
-
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2018E
(46,335)
-1.9%
(60,183)
-1.9%
(79,024)
-1.9%
(103,201)
-1.9%
(134,025)
-1.9%
17.3x
(9,110)
###
17.3x
(13,848)
-
17.3x
(18,840)
-
17.3x
(24,178)
-
17.3x
(30,823)
-
2019E
(171,943)
-1.9%
17.3x
(37,918)
-
20.00%
5.00%
25.00%