RESOURCE FILES OF NIKHILESH DHOLAKIA:

BUBBLES VER. 1
2015 NIKHILESH DHOLAKIA

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Dholakia, Nikhilesh (2015), Resource Files of Nikhilesh Dholakia: Bubbles Ver.1,
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Is bubble-consciousness (bubble-wariness) a temporary, or a new state?

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/01/08/despite-stock-market-exuberance-a-temperedreaction/?_r=0

BlackRock not to chase nonpublic (insider) info:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/09/business/blackrock-agrees-to-stop-pursuing-nonpublicviews.html?_r=0

High-Frequency Trading (HFT) seems to be emerging as a new tool for manipulation of stock
prices:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fbi-probes-high-frequency-trading-for-crimes-2014-03-31

Former Wall-Streeter, author of Liars Poker, Michael Lewis has a new book indicating
manipulation of stock prices, mainly via high-frequency trading (HFT). Lewis says markets are
rigged:
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/30/investing/michael-lewis-flashboys/index.html?iid=HP_River

Book by Michael Lewis (above) spooks high-frequency trading (HFT) firm Virtu to delay its IPO
by 2 weeks:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-01/virtu-said-to-delay-ipo-amid-furor-spurred-bymichael-lewis-book.html

Bubble tamed, or bubble bursting? Hong Kong real estate

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-01/hong-kong-chief-executive-says-home-marketno-longer-overheated.html

New USA housing bubble? Likely so in some states

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/04/01/four-states-hit-record-highs-forhome-prices/

Stock market bubble? Not yet, says this investment firm on April 1 (are they fooling us?)
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/04/01/stocks-are-nowhere-near-bubbly-valuationterritory-says-lpl-financials-kleintop/

Backlash reaction, from Wall Street, to Lewis book on HFT:

http://www.thewire.com/business/2014/04/is-high-frequency-trading-as-bad-as-michaellewis-wants-you-to-think/359903/

Interview with Shiller, after the Nobel, on market psychology:

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304256404579451513719842826

Behavioral Finance (mental accounting) and manipulation of behavior, for good and for worse:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-07/manipulate-me-the-booming-business-inbehavioral-finance.html

Bubble talk bubbling up again, April 2014 this one even has a picture with bubbles in it..
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-warning-signs-of-a-stock-market-bubble-2014-04-08

Short history of South Sea Bubble from HBS Baker Library:

http://www.library.hbs.edu/hc/ssb/history_print.html

Forbes columnist Jesse Colombo and tulipmania:

http://www.thebubblebubble.com/tulip-mania/

Rich portal with many links to housing bubbles all over the world:
http://worldhousingbubble.blogspot.com/

Runaway Sentiments: Fear and Greed indicators (charts) from CNN Money:
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

Runaway Sentiments: Five technical indicators of stock market sentiment:

http://www.stocktradingtogo.com/2009/06/04/stock-market-sentiment-indicators-gaugeinvestors/

Runaway Sentiments: Indicator based on investor surveys:

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey?adv=yes

Runaway Sentiments: Sentiment indexes for currency exchange rates:

https://www.dukascopy.com/swiss/english/marketwatch/sentiment/

Runaway Sentiments: Consumer sentiments (U-Michigan) not quite-so-runaway

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/conssent:ind

Runaway Sentiments: Start-up tech pitches we are just like the (bubbly big) start-up
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/everyone-wants-to-be-like-airbnb-and-uber-2015-03-20

Runaway Sentiments:

Article on housing bubbles causes, prevention:

van den Noord, Paul (2014) "11. Housing bubbles: what are their causes and can we get rid of
them?." Financial Cycles and the Real Economy: Lessons for CESEE Countries (2014): 185.

https://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=YYS1BAAAQBAJ&oi=fnd&pg=PA185&ots=smqo
yPYitJ&sig=sxXJRJJj08_6rc2aebK5wqFM7vc#v=onepage&q&f=false

Robert Shiller on bond bubble in 2015:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-scary-is-the-bond-market-2015-03-16

Hedge fund founder sees Fed action possibly causing a 1937-slump (50% decline in stock
prices):
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-17/bridgewater-s-dalio-warns-of-1937market-risk-with-rates

Article on rhetoric around student debt bubble in USA:

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17530350.2014.947307#.VQrdseGYmug

Blog on financialization, and bubbles 2015 Charles Hugh-Smith, OfTwoMinds.com

http://themillenniumreport.com/2014/10/will-the-global-bubble-economy-pop-in-2014-or2015-2/

Walks, Alan. "Canada's housing bubble story: Mortgage securitization, the state, and the global
financial crisis." International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 38, no. 1 (2014): 256-284.

2015 Nasdaq tech bubble or just a bull market?

http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/20/investing/nasdaq-5000-alltime-highrecord/index.html?iid=HP_LN

HB Shin work critical urban studies perspectives some stuff on housing bubbles:
http://urbancommune.net/publications

Financialization of home mortgages:

Aalbers, Manuel B. "The financialization of home and the mortgage market crisis." competition
& change 12, no. 2 (2008): 148-166.
Columnist Paul Farrell.. the false American exceptionalism, and impending bubble burst:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/american-exceptionalism-gut-punched-in-zero-growthworld-2015-04-17

van den Noord, Paul. "11. Housing bubbles: what are their causes and can we get rid of them?."
Financial Cycles and the Real Economy: Lessons for CESEE Countries (2014): 185.
Grover, Richard, and Christine Grover. "Property bubblesa transitory phenomenon." Journal of
Property Investment & Finance 32, no. 2 (2014): 208-222.
Dollar in a currency bubble? Views of Ron Paul:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102586401

Intensifying stock bubble buzz in early May, 2015:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-a-stock-market-sounds-when-the-bubblebursts-2015-05-04

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/death-of-the-american-dream-as-a-big-bubble-readies-topop-2015-05-04
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bill-gross-says-death-is-coming-for-him-and-this-bullmarket-2015-05-04
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bull-market-supercycle-stocks-bonds-ending-bill-gross123840842--sector.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-bullish-argument-for-stocks-turns-out-to-be-wrong2015-05-01
http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/08/investing/stocks-bull-market-6-year-anniversary/?iid=EL

USA housing bubbles in 2015 are uneven and localized:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/05/04/real_estate/real-estate-housingbubble/index.html?iid=HP_LN
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102645684

China bull market fast and scary rise of margin debt (runaway sentiments for sure):
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-04/china-s-crazy-stock-market-charted

Treadmill sentiment of new millionaires one stock market crash away from losing it all:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102645200

German stock bubble May 2015:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/german-market-bubbling-over-with-ecb-help-2015-0504?dist=countdown
http://s30.postimg.org/lb7i6oiap/image.png

Stock bubble of May-2015 corporations borrow money, buy back stocks, inflate stock price,
CEOs get richer quite a pyramid scheme debt-hype-bubble-inequality-poof..

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-are-stock-prices-so-high-follow-the-borrowedmoney-2015-05-07?page=1
Quotes:
Corporate CEOs get paid these days for driving up stock prices. Their performance targets are
often compared to the total returns on their company stock. Their biggest rewards come in the
form of restricted stock units and options. So borrowing other peoples money for free and
using it to drive up the stock price is a great deal for them it is a financial certainty that rising
debt levels imply rising risks. The most interesting question is whether the bulk of that risk is
being carried by stock investors or bond investors. Time will reveal all.
[ND: No matter which way the risk axe falls, it crushes not the plutocrat but the average joe
the source of funds are pension pools or governments, lacking tax revenues, borrowing from
the public]

Using (late) Nobel-laureate James Tobins Q ratio, US equities are valued at 10% above all
physical assets. Higher level than in 1929 and dotcom crash. Clear evidence of supremacy of
Finanzkapital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-18/nobel-winner-s-math-shows-s-p-500unhinged-from-reality-or-not

Bubble fears for Summer-2015:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-america-is-forecasting-a-scary-summer-for-thestock-market-2015-05-18?dist=afterbell

No dotcom style bubble in 2015 says salesforce.com CEO:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/13/investing/no-startup-bubble-marcbenioff/index.html?Sr=twmoney061315salesforce0839story

China stock bubble can the managed, interventionist, government actions stop bubble burst?
Also, Chinas 3 bubbles
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-can-handle-its-three-bubbles-expert-says-2015-1007?dist=lbeforebell

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-stock-debuts-will-show-if-bubble-has-alreadyburst-2015-06-21?link=mw_home_kiosk
http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/26/investing/china-stocks-shanghai/index.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/china-investors-get-that-greater-foolfeeling-as-selloff-deepens
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-shares-fall-as-stimulus-hopes-wane-startups-lookexpensive-2015-06-26
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/the-loudest-voice-in-china-s-stockmarket-is-changing-its-tune
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/07/05/420268870/china-takes-steps-to-haltplunge-in-stock-markets
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-stock-market-collapse-is-not-over-yet-2015-0707?dist=afterbell
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-08/china-stock-futures-plunge-amidtrading-halts-margin-debt-drop
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-33456768

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-government-had-no-reason-to-intervene-in-thestock-market-2015-07-07?link=MW_home_latest_news
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-09/who-blew-up-china-s-stock-bubblehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-09/irrational-exuberance-triggers-chaosas-china-watchdog-sidelined
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/contrarians-say-chinese-stocks-could-rally-29-in-threemonths-2015-07-09?dist=beforebell
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chinas-stock-market-crash-is-just-beginning-2015-0708?link=MW_popular
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-17/chinese-bazooka-xi-readies-483-billionto-end-stock-selloff
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-stock-market-bubble-intervention-bystephen-s--roach-2015-07
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-equity-bubble-correction-by-michaelspence-2015-07 [The conservative let the markets self-correct position]

Are pension funds, annuities and insurance funds the new bubble?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/dark-lords-of-finance-by-alexander-friedman2015-07

Bubble yes and no views late June 2015:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stop-freaking-out-about-stocks-says-bubble-savant-201506-25?dist=countdown

Shiller on continued irrationality (and collective herd behaviors) even with all the new AI-tech:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/markets-still-arent-close-to-being-perfectly-efficient2015-07-15?dist=lcountdown
Quote:
Markets seem to be driven by stories, as I emphasized in my book Irrational Exuberance.
There are stories of great new eras and of looming depressions. There are fundamental stories
about technology and declining resources. And there are stories about politics and bizarre
conspiracies.
No one knows if these stories are true, but they take on a life of their own. Sometimes they go
viral. When one has a heart-to-heart talk with many seemingly rational people, they turn out to
have crazy theories. These people influence markets, because all other investors must reckon
with them; and their craziness is not going away anytime soon.
New tech bubble in 2015?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nasdaq-surge-is-triggering-2000-bubble-flashbacks-forstrategists-2015-07-17?dist=lcountdown

Interestingly, ex Morgan Stanley senior manager, now a Yale prof, finds political manipulation
of asset markets but does not say much on the constant ongoing manipulation of markets by
Finanzkapital (including his ex-employer):
More broadly, just as in Japan, the US, and Europe, there can be no mistaking what prompted
Chinas manipulation: the perils of outsize asset bubbles. Time and again, regulators and
policymakers to say nothing of political leaders have been asleep at the switch in condoning
market excesses. In a globalized world where labor income is under constant pressure, the siren
song of asset markets as a growth elixir is far too tempting for the body politic to resist.
Speculative bubbles are the visible manifestation of that temptation. As the bubbles burst and
they always do false prosperity is exposed and the defensive tactics of market manipulation
become both urgent and seemingly logical.
Therein lies the great irony of manipulation: The more we depend on markets, the less we trust
them. Needless to say, that is a far cry from the invisible hand on which the efficacy of
markets rests. We claim, as Adam Smith did, that impersonal markets ensure the most efficient
allocation of scarce capital; but what we really want are markets that operate only on our
terms.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-stock-market-bubbleintervention-by-stephen-s--roach-2015-07#W4jK7W7Ly8ghmIrr.99

At the pre-bursting point, bubbles show signs of excess and craziness here is the techexample of 2015:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/startups-gamble-on-the-lazy-and-entitled-2015-0806?dist=lcountdown

Brazil: Rio real estate bubble bursting?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-09/rents-on-rio-s-hedge-fund-lane-sink60-as-property-bubble-pops

Post-Great Recession US Economy: Unpredictable & Ungovernable?

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21664153-case-raising-interestrates-worryingly-hazy-more-red-lights-green?frsc=dg|c

Shiller on Bubbles/Sentiments Sep-2015: Not "runaway sentiments" yet... but could become
runaway with the right triggers...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/shiller-investors-havent-been-this-worried-about-a-stockmarket-bubble-since-2000-2015-09-14

More Shiller on bubbles/sentiments Why Greater Fools are always on supply

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/government-intervention-financial-crises-byrobert-j--shiller-2015-09