GINATILAN INITIAL 50MW

WINDFARM PROJECT

FINANCIAL MODEL
(Non-FIT-REGULAR ENERGY SUPPLY)

GINATILAN CEBU
WINDFARM

RETScreen Energy Model - Wind Energy Project

Units:
Site Conditions
Project name
Project location
Wind data source
Nearest location for weather data
Annual average wind speed
Height of wind measurement
Wind shear exponent
Wind speed at 10 m
Average atmospheric pressure
Annual average temperature
System Characteristics
Grid type
Wind turbine rated power
Number of turbines
Wind plant capacity
Hub height
Wind speed at hub height
Wind power density at hub height
Array losses
Airfoil soiling and/or icing losses
Other downtime losses
Miscellaneous losses

Annual Energy Production

Wind plant capacity
Unadjusted energy production
Pressure adjustment coefficient
Temperature adjustment coefficient
Gross energy production
Losses coefficient
Specific yield
Wind plant capacity factor
Renewable energy delivered

Training & Support

Metric
Estimate
GINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFARM PROJECT
Ginatilan Cebu, Philippines
Wind speed
PAGASA Cebu City
m/s
6.6
m
80.0
0.25
m/s
4.0
kPa
101.3
C
28

kW
kW
m
m/s
W/m
%
%
%
%

Estimate
Central-grid
2000
25
50,000
90.0
6.8
334
0%
1%
2%
2%

kW
MW
MWh
MWh
kWh/m
%
MWh
kWh

Estimate
Per Turbine
2,000
2.000
7,795
1.00
0.96
7,483
0.95
749
41%
7,115
7,115,260

Notes/Range
See Online Manual

See Weather Database

3.0 to 100.0 m
0.10 to 0.40
60.0 to 103.0 kPa
-20 to 30 C
Notes/Range
Complete Equipment Data sheet

6.0 to 100.0 m

0% to 20%
1% to 10%
2% to 7%
2% to 6%
Estimate
Total
50,000
50.000
194,882
1.00
0.96
187,087
0.95
749
41%
177,881
177,881,489

Notes/Range

0.59 to 1.02
0.98 to 1.15
0.75 to 1.00
150 to 1,500 kWh/m
20% to 40%

Complete Cost Analysis sheet

Version 3.2

Minister of Natural Resources Canada 1997-2005.

2/3/2015; Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

NRCan/CETC - Varennes

RETScreen Equipment Data - Wind Energy Project

Wind Turbine Characteristics
Wind turbine rated power
Hub height
Rotor diameter
Swept area
Wind turbine manufacturer
Wind turbine model
Energy curve data source
Shape factor

Estimate
2000
90.0
110
9,499
CNYD
YDF-2000-110
Custom
2.2

Wind speed
(m/s)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Power curve data

(kW)
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.9
104.3
266.3
507.2
841.4
1,284.5
1,807.8
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1
2,050.1

kW
m
m
m

Notes/Range
See Product Database

6.0 to 100.0 m
7 to 80 m
35 to 5,027 m

Weibull wind distribution

1.0 to 3.0

Wind Turbine Production Data

Energy curve data
(MWh/yr)
702.9
2,075.9
4,058.2
6,216.2
8,204.9
9,888.1
11,252.3
12,320.5
13,112.6
13,642.2
13,926.0
13,989.8
13,867.0
-

Power and Energy Curves

Power

Energy

16,000

2,500

Power (kW)

12,000
10,000

1,500

8,000
1,000

6,000

Energy (MWh/yr)

14,000
2,000

4,000

500

2,000
0
0

Wind
speed
(m/s)
10
12
14

0
16

18

20

22

24

Return to
Energy Model sheet
Version 3.2

Minister of Natural Resources Canada 1997-2005.

2/3/2015; Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

NRCan/CETC - Varennes

RETScreen Cost Analysis - Wind Energy Project

Type of analysis:
Initial Costs (Credits)
Feasibility Study
Site investigation
Wind resource assessment
Environmental assessment
Preliminary design
Detailed cost estimate
GHG baseline study and MP
Report preparation
Project management
Travel and accommodation
pre-feasibility study
Sub-total:
Development
PPA negotiation
Permits and approvals
Land rights
Land survey
GHG validation and registration
Project financing
Legal and accounting
Project management
Travel and accommodation
Other - Development
Sub-total:
Engineering
Wind turbine(s) micro-siting
Mechanical design
Electrical design
Civil design
Tenders and contracting
Construction supervision
Other - Engineering
Sub-total:
Energy Equipment
Wind turbine(s)
Spare parts
Transportation
Other - Energy equipment
Sub-total:
Balance of Plant
Wind turbine(s) foundation(s)
Wind turbine(s) erection
Road construction
Transmission line
Substation
Control and O&M building(s)
Transportation
Other - Balance of plant
Sub-total:
Miscellaneous
Training
Commissioning
Contingencies
Interest during construction
Sub-total:
Initial Costs - Total
Annual Costs (Credits)
O&M
Land lease
Property taxes
Insurance premium
Transmission line maintenance
Parts and labour
GHG monitoring and verification
Community benefits
Travel and accommodation
General and administrative
Other - O&M
Contingencies
Annual Costs - Total
Periodic Costs (Credits)
Drive train
Blades
End of project life
Version 3.2

Feasibility
Unit

Quantity

p-d
met tower
p-d
p-d
p-d
project
p-d
p-d
p-trip
Cost

90.0
1
90.0
90.0
90.0
1
90.0
90.0
40
1

p-d
p-d
project
p-d
project
p-d
p-d
p-yr
p-trip
Cost

p-d
p-d
p-d
p-d
p-d
p-yr
Cost

kW
%
turbine
Cost

turbine
turbine
km
km
project
building
project
Cost

p-d
p-d
%
0.0%

90.0
90.0
1
90.0
1
90.0
300.0
1.00
40
1

90.0
90.0
90.0
90.0
90.0
1.00

50,000
5.0%
25
50

25
25
8.00
8.00
1
1
1
50

90.0
60.0
2%

Unit

Quantity

project
project
project
%
kWh
project
project
p-trip
%
Cost
%

1
0
1
5.0%
177,881,489
1
1
85
10%
1
10%

Currency:
Second currency:
Unit Cost
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

1,500
100,000
1,000
2,000
1,000
30,000
1,000
2,500
2,000
200,000

1,000
2,000
50,000
1,500
30,000
1,000
100
600,000
2,000
50,000

2,500
2,500
2,000
2,500
1,500
500,000

1,100
55,000,000
400,000
200,000

350,000
350,000
200,000
300,000
3,000,000
200,000
100,000
40,000

$
1,500
$
2,250
$ 108,865,000
$ 110,497,975

$
Denmark
Amount
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

135,000
100,000
90,000
180,000
90,000
30,000
90,000
225,000
80,000
200,000
1,220,000

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

90,000
180,000
50,000
135,000
30,000
90,000
30,000
600,000
80,000
50,000
1,335,000

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

225,000
225,000
180,000
225,000
135,000
500,000
1,490,000

$
$
$
$
$

55,000,000
2,750,000
10,000,000
10,000,000
77,750,000

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

8,750,000
8,750,000
1,600,000
2,400,000
3,000,000
200,000
100,000
2,000,000
26,800,000

$
$
$
$
$
$

135,000
135,000
1,632,975
1,902,975
110,497,975

1.7%
100.0%

Amount

Relative Costs

Unit Cost
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

173,333
552,490
5,400,000
0.003
15,000
257,777
1,000
1,887,245
18,000
2,093,969

Cost
Cost

Period
10 yr
15 yr

$
$

Unit Cost
-

Credit

$
Cost references:
DKK
Rate: $/DKK
Relative Costs Quantity Range

$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$

173,333
552,490
270,000
533,644
15,000
257,777
85,000
188,724
18,000
209,397
2,303,366

$
$
$
$

Amount
-

Minister of Natural Resources Canada 1997-2005.

2/3/2015; Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

None
0.17900
Unit Cost Range

Quantity Range

Unit Cost Range

Interval Range
-

Unit Cost Range

-

1.1%

1.2%

1.3%

70.4%

24.3%

100.0%

Go to GHG Analysis sheet

NRCan/CETC - Varennes

RETScreen Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emission Reduction Analysis - Wind Energy Project
Use GHG analysis sheet?
Potential CDM project?

Yes
Yes

Type of analysis:
Use simplified baseline methods?

Complete Financial Summary sheet

Standard
No

Background Information
Project Information
Project name
Project location

GINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFProject capacity

Ginatilan Cebu, Philippines
Grid type

50.00 MW
Central-grid

Global Warming Potential of GHG

21 tonnes CO2 = 1 tonne CH4
310 tonnes CO2 = 1 tonne N2O

(IPCC 1996)
(IPCC 1996)

Base Case Electricity System (Baseline)

Fuel type

Coal
Large hydro

Electricity mix

Fuel mix
(%)
100.0%

100%

CO2 emission
factor
(kg/GJ)
94.6
0.0

307.1

Does baseline change during project life?

CH4 emission
factor
(kg/GJ)
0.0020
0.0000

N2O emission
factor
(kg/GJ)
0.0030
0.0000

0.0065

0.0097

No

Fuel conversion
efficiency

T&D
losses

(%)
35.0%
100.0%

(%)
12.0%
12.0%

Change in GHG emission factor

12.0%

GHG emission
factor
(tCO2/MWh)
1.117
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
1.117

-20.0%

Proposed Case Electricity System (Wind Energy Project)

Fuel type

Electricity system
Wind

CH4 emission
factor
(kg/GJ)

N2O emission
factor
(kg/GJ)

Fuel conversion
efficiency

T&D
losses

GHG emission
factor

(%)

CO2 emission
factor
(kg/GJ)

(%)

(%)

(tCO2/MWh)

100.0%

0.0

0.0000

0.0000

100.0%

12.0%

0.000

Base case
GHG emission
factor
(tCO2/MWh)
1.117

Proposed case
GHG emission
factor
(tCO2/MWh)
0.000

End-use
annual energy
delivered
(MWh)
156,536

Gross annual
GHG emission
reduction
(tCO2)
174,862

GHG credits
transaction
fee
(%)
0.0%

Net annual
GHG emission
reduction
(tCO2)
174,862

Fuel mix

GHG Emission Reduction Summary

Years of
occurence

Electricity system

(yr)
1 to 4

Complete Financial Summary sheet

Version 3.2

United Nations Environment Programme & Minister of Natural Resources Canada 2000 - 2005.

2/3/2015; Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

UNEP/DTIE and NRCan/CETC - Varennes

RETScreen Financial Summary - Wind Energy Project

Annual Energy Balance
Project name GINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFARM PROJECT
Project location
Ginatilan Cebu, Philippines
Renewable energy delivered
MWh
177,881
Excess RE available
MWh
Firm RE capacity
kW
Grid type
Central-grid

Peak load
Grid energy demand
Net GHG reduction
Net GHG reduction - yr 5 + beyond
Net GHG emission reduction - 25 yrs
Net GHG emission reduction - 25 yrs

kW
MWh
tCO2/yr
tCO2/yr
tCO2
tCO2

Central-grid
174,862
174,862
4,371,554
4,371,554

Financial Parameters
Avoided cost of energy
RE production credit
RE production credit duration
RE credit escalation rate
GHG emission reduction credit
GHG reduction credit duration
GHG credit escalation rate
Avoided cost of excess energy
Avoided cost of capacity
Energy cost escalation rate
Inflation
Discount rate
Project life

$/kWh
$/kWh
yr
%
$/tCO2
yr
%
$/kWh
$/kW-yr
%
%
%
yr

0.1400
25
2.5%
5.0
25
0.0%
120
0.0%
3.0%
7.0%
25

Debt ratio
Debt interest rate
Debt term
Income tax analysis?
Effective income tax rate
Loss carryforward?
Depreciation method
Depreciation tax basis
Depreciation rate
Depreciation period
Tax holiday available?
Tax holiday duration

%
%
yr
yes/no
%
%
%
yr
yes/no
yr

0.0%
4.0%
5
Yes
10.0%
Yes
Declining balance
95.0%
20.0%
15
yes
7

Project Costs and Savings

Initial Costs
Feasibility study
Development
Engineering
Energy equipment
Balance of plant
Miscellaneous
Initial Costs - Total

1.1%
1.2%
1.3%
70.4%
24.3%
1.7%
100.0%

$
$
$
$
$
$
$

1,220,000
1,335,000
1,490,000
77,750,000
26,800,000
1,902,975
110,497,975

Incentives/Grants

Periodic Costs (Credits)

# Drive train
# Blades
#
End of project life - Credit

$
$
$
$

Annual Costs and Debt

O&M
Fuel/Electricity
Debt payments - 5 yrs
Annual Costs and Debt - Total

$
$
$
$

2,303,366
2,303,366

Annual Savings or Income

Energy savings/income
Capacity savings/income
RE production credit income - 25 yrs
GHG reduction income - 25 yrs
Annual Savings - Total

$
$
$
$
$

24,903,409
874,311
25,777,719

Schedule yr # 10,20
Schedule yr # 15
Schedule yr # 0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Schedule yr # 25

Financial Feasibility
Pre-tax IRR and ROI
After-tax IRR and ROI
Simple Payback
Year-to-positive cash flow
Net Present Value - NPV
Annual Life Cycle Savings
Benefit-Cost (B-C) ratio
Version 3.2

%
%
yr
yr
$
$
-

20.7%
20.1%
4.7
4.7
140,598,302
12,064,813
2.27

Calculate energy production cost?

Energy production cost
Calculate GHG reduction cost?
GHG emission reduction cost
Project equity
Project debt
Debt payments
Debt service coverage

yes/no
$/kWh
yes/no
$/tCO2
$
$
$/yr
-

Minister of Natural Resources Canada 1997-2005.

2/3/2015;Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

Yes
0.0667
Yes
(69)
110,497,975
No debt

Yearly Cash Flows

Year
Pre-tax
#
$
0
(110,497,975)
1
23,405,252
2
23,334,078
3
23,260,769
4
23,185,260
5
23,107,487
6
23,027,380
7
22,944,869
8
22,859,884
9
22,772,349
10
22,682,188
11
22,589,322
12
22,493,670
13
22,395,148
14
22,293,671
15
22,189,150
16
22,081,493
17
21,970,606
18
21,856,392
19
21,738,753
20
21,617,584
21
21,492,780
22
21,364,231
23
21,231,827
24
21,095,450
25
20,954,982
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-

After-tax
$
(110,497,975)
23,405,252
23,334,078
23,260,769
23,185,260
23,107,487
23,027,380
22,944,869
21,014,185
20,847,345
20,695,754
20,555,818
20,424,645
20,299,907
20,179,723
20,062,570
19,947,212
19,832,640
19,718,029
19,602,698
19,486,082
19,367,707
19,247,172
19,124,135
18,998,298
18,909,056
-

Cumulative
$
(110,497,975)
(87,092,723)
(63,758,645)
(40,497,876)
(17,312,616)
5,794,871
28,822,251
51,767,120
72,781,305
93,628,650
114,324,404
134,880,221
155,304,866
175,604,774
195,784,497
215,847,067
235,794,279
255,626,919
275,344,948
294,947,646
314,433,727
333,801,434
353,048,607
372,172,742
391,171,040
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096
410,080,096

NRCan/CETC - Varennes

RETScreen Financial Summary - Wind Energy Project

Cumulative Cash Flows Graph

Wind Energy Project Cumulative Cash Flows

GINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFARM PROJECT, Ginatilan Cebu, Philippines
Renewable energy delivered (MWh/yr): 177,881

Total Initial Costs:

110,497,975

Net average GHG reduction (tCO2/yr): 174,862

500,000,000

400,000,000

Cumulative Cash Flows ($)

300,000,000

200,000,000

100,000,000

0
0

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

(100,000,000)

(200,000,000)
Years
IRR and ROI: 20.1%

Version 3.2

Year-to-positive cash flow: 4.7 yr

Minister of Natural Resources Canada 1997-2005.

2/3/2015;Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

Net Present Value: $ 140,598,302

NRCan/CETC - Varennes

RETScreen Sensitivity and Risk Analysis - Wind Energy Project

Use sensitivity analysis sheet?
Yes
Perform risk analysis too?
Yes
Project name
GINATILAN INITIAL 50MW WINDFARM PROJECT
Project location
Ginatilan Cebu, Philippines

Perform analysis on
Sensitivity range
Threshold

After-tax IRR and ROI

20%
15.0
%

Sensitivity Analysis for After-tax IRR and ROI

RE delivered
(MWh)
142,305
160,093
177,881
195,670
213,458

Initial costs
($)
88,398,380
99,448,178
110,497,975
121,547,773
132,597,570

Annual costs
($)
1,842,693
2,073,030
2,303,366
2,533,703
2,764,040

20%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%

0.1120
-20%
11.4%
13.4%
15.4%
17.3%
19.2%

0.1260
-10%
13.4%
15.6%
17.8%
19.9%
22.0%

Avoided cost of energy ($/kWh)

0.1400
0.1540
0%
10%
15.4%
17.3%
17.8%
19.9%
20.1%
22.5%
22.5%
25.0%
24.8%
27.5%

0.1680
20%
19.2%
22.0%
24.8%
27.5%
30.3%

0.2
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%

0.1120
-20%
19.8%
17.3%
15.4%
13.7%
12.3%

0.1260
-10%
22.7%
20.0%
17.8%
16.0%
14.4%

Avoided cost of energy ($/kWh)

0.1400
0.1540
0%
10%
25.6%
28.4%
22.6%
25.1%
20.1%
22.5%
18.1%
20.3%
16.4%
18.4%

0.1680
20%
31.3%
27.7%
24.8%
22.4%
20.4%

0.2
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%

0.1120
-20%
15.9%
15.6%
15.4%
15.1%
14.8%

0.1260
-10%
18.3%
18.0%
17.8%
17.5%
17.2%

Avoided cost of energy ($/kWh)

0.1400
0.1540
0%
10%
20.7%
23.0%
20.4%
22.7%
20.1%
22.5%
19.9%
22.2%
19.6%
21.9%

0.1680
20%
25.3%
25.0%
24.8%
24.5%
24.3%

4.0
-20%
19.8%
19.9%
20.0%
20.0%
20.1%

GHG emission reduction credit ($/tCO2)

4.5
5.0
5.5
-10%
0%
10%
19.9%
20.0%
20.0%
20.0%
20.1%
20.1%
20.1%
20.1%
20.2%
20.1%
20.2%
20.3%
20.2%
20.3%
20.4%

6.0
20%
20.1%
20.2%
20.3%
20.4%
20.5%

Net GHG emission reduction - 25 yrs

(tCO2)
0.2
3,497,244
-20%
3,934,399
-10%
4,371,554
0%
4,808,710
10%
5,245,865
20%

Version 3.2

Minister of Natural Resources Canada 1997-2005.

2/3/2015; Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

NRCan/CETC - Varennes

RETScreen Sensitivity and Risk Analysis - Wind Energy Project

Risk Analysis for After-tax IRR and ROI
Parameter
Avoided cost of energy
RE delivered
Initial costs
Annual costs
GHG emission reduction credit

Unit
$/kWh
MWh
$
$
$/tCO2

Value
0.1400
177,881
110,497,975
2,303,366
5.0

Range (+/-)
15%
15%
20%
15%
50%

Minimum
0.1190
151,199
88,398,380
1,957,861
2.5

Maximum
0.1610
204,564
132,597,570
2,648,871
7.5

Impact on After-tax IRR and ROI

RE delivered

GHG emission reduction credit

-0.800

-0.600

-0.400

-0.200

0.000

0.200

0.400

Sorted by the impact

Initial costs

0.600

Effect of increasing the value of the parameter

Median
Level of risk
Minimum within level of confidence
Maximum within level of confidence

%
%
%
%

20.1%
5%
15.7%
24.6%

Distribution of After-tax IRR and ROI

14%

12%

10%

Frequency

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
13.5%

14.2%

15.0%

15.7%

16.5%

17.2%

17.9%

18.7%

19.4%

20.1%

20.9%

21.6%

22.4%

23.1%

23.8%

24.6%

25.3%

26.0%

26.8%

27.5%

After-tax IRR and ROI (%)

0.0% of cases have an after-tax IRR and ROI not defined.

Minimum
15.7%

Version 3.2

Median

Maximum

Level of confidence = 95%

2.5%

20.1%

Minister of Natural Resources Canada 1997-2005.

2/3/2015; Non-FIT-Ginatilan Financial Model.xls

2.5%

24.6%

NRCan/CETC - Varennes