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BIG
ONE
duction
The Cascadia Sub
Quake is coming.
Bad.
How bad will it be?
natural
(Maybe the worst
ory.)
disaster in US hist
ES!
Can we prepare? Y
E
D
I
U
G
L
A
V
A SU RV I
BY RANDY GRAGG
ILLUSTRATIONS BY NOMAD
W H AT S I N T H E G U I D E ?
WHAT
BUILDINGS WILL
FALL DOWN?
HOW WILL
WE GET
AROUND?
WHAT
WILL WE
EAT?
MAKING
A FAMILY
PLAN
STITCHING
THE SAFETY
NET
INTERVIEW:
THE WOMAN
PROTECTING US
YOUR
ONE-WEEK
SURVIVAL KIT
HOW TO
SAVE YOUR
HOUSE
JULY
HOW
WILL WE
COMMUNICATE?
THE
BIG
WAVE
.
K
TIC
.
K
TOC
:
supplies arrive. And, yes
dy
d
between living an
ing. For the Northwest,
preparedness could mean
the difference between
bouncing back in years
or not bouncing back for
decades.
, and
be bigger, deeper
Officials are working
ith
w
,
es
ut
re
in
m
4
longer: 3
hard on the problem. Mo
mea
,
k
c
lo
of
c
ns
a
r
ze
gias
0 majo
potentially do
than 160 scientists, en
uakes4
very
e
m
so
s,
in earthq
e
ck
th
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rs
r
afte
neers, and infrastructure
uakes ove
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:
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last 10,00
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e 8 on the
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ild
it
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to develop the Oregon
ger than
Roads
e
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t
ps
th
lla
scale. (Big
co
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ill
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le
ings
Resiliency Plan, a blueprin
peop
3
6
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ill
le
w
il
s
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that
Tock: a
will buckle. High
for averting the worst
in 1989.)
k.
ac
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ill
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e 9. (Sam
ill
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magnitud
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43
tsunami
earthquake future that
a every 2
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in this are
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the Oregon
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ne on Jan
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of economic and populayears ago
ion
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ak
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lost generation that will
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or
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affect the regional and
the Juan
n
ca
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tw
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ia
are cruc
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tching fro
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s,
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rt
take, as indi
With their recommenbia to No
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th
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a
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Prep
a guide to whats being
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est
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rt
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N
the diffe
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e entire
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causing th
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to sink by
e
ng
k
pi
a
ee
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sl
coastline
q
n
ing
or not; betwee
inevitableright now, or
he result
le
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6.6 feet. T
ty
ild
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-s
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a Califo
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us
ens before and after
aged ho
st of energ
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;
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nt
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e in the e
d thirsty
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will
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ry
It
.
ng
e
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g
n
in
o
go
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stal
ing until
upper cru
for days or manag
Y
GEOLOG
OREGON
e
m
THINK OF
suring ti
78
LAN
P O R T 0 14
J U LY 2
NT
D MO
H LY
REALITY CHECK
Possibl:e
deaths
6506,000
Surviva!l
Guide
WHEN THE
SHAKING
STARTS . . .
WHAT BUILDINGS
WILL FALL DOWN?
WE LIKE OLD BUILDINGS and have a
perennially weak economy. Result: Portland has about 1,800 unreinforced
masonry (i.e., old brick) buildings, more
than 40 of them schools or day cares. If
not retrofitted, they are all likely to collapse. More modern steel and concrete
buildings will stand, but that doesnt
mean theyll be safe to enter or use postquake. Whats more, building codes assume short, quick, California-style quakes.
How Portlands modern buildings will fare
in a subduction events longer shake isnt
well understood. The best seismic building system is called base isolation, in
which buildings slide atop pads within a
kind of tub. Japan has 6,400 base-isolated buildings that remained functional
after the 2011 quake. Portland has one:
Pioneer Courthouse, retrofitted in 2005.
In a high-rise, move
against an interior
wall.
If outside, move away
from trees, signs,
power lines, and
buildings.
On a city sidewalk,
duck into a doorway
to avoid falling brick
and glass.
If driving, pull over.
Stay in your car. Avoid
bridges and structures
that can collapse.
79
HOW WILL WE
GET AROUND?
BY FOOT, BIKE, AND BOAT, MOSTLY. The regions quake planners agree: people will be stuck where they are for quite some
time. Prepare to bond with the people youre withwhoever they
areor get walking.
BRIDGES Top-heavy, counterweighted lift spans like the Hawthorne, Steel, and
Interstate will likely collapse. So will ramps leading to just about all the bridges.
ROADS Vast swaths of the citys roadways, built on fill and alluvial deposits, will
crack and sink.
THE TUNNEL Highway 26s West Hills Tunnel was built before seismic codes. It
may prove impassable.
THE GEAR All of the citys road-clearing equipment is stored beneath the
certain-to-collapse Fremont Bridge ramps. Seemed like a good idea at the time!
THE FUEL Most of Oregons fuel supply arrives to the Critical Energy Infrastructure Hub, a six-mile stretch of fuel storage tanks and refineries next to
the Willamette River between the St. Johns and Fremont Bridgesall built atop
vulnerable fill and alluvial deposits. Several multinational energy companies are
involved; some have seismically upgraded some of these facilities, others have
not. Most fuel gets here by way of a single, vintage 1960s pipe from Washingtonowned and operated by BPbeneath the Columbia and Willamette Rivers.
The movement of the rivers could cause the pipe to snap. In other words, peak
oil (and natural gas) may come a little early.
STANDING SPANS The soon-to-be finished Tilikum Crossing and Sellwood
Bridge are both built to withstand major earthquakes, as is the aerial tram.
THE BOATS The Portland Spirit, tugs, and other rivercraft will become ferries.
THE HQ Novick is pushing for $2.2 million to seismically update the citys vehicle
and equipment fuel storage tanks and open a new west-side emergency management center and equipment storage facility, possibly in the decommissioned
SFC Jerome F. Sears Army Reserve Center.
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P O R T L A N D M O N T H LY
J U LY 20 14
Surviva!l
Guide
JOIN
THE
SAFETY
NET
REALITY CHECK
Bridges on
US 101 likely
to collapse:
56
The Earthquake
Planner
was right under them. The Cascadia subduction zone is capable of a magnitude 9 earthquake, but what we feel here in Portland wont
be a 9. Time of day will make a difference. If
its during the school day, we have a lot of children in very vulnerable buildings. If it happens
at night, the casualty count would go drastically down. Thats only for the earthquake. The
earthquake and the tsunami are a different
matter.
Youre going to visit Christchurch in October. What do you want to learn? Portland developed about the same time as Christchurch.
Were a little bigger, but a lot of geography
and building stock is quite similar. A large
portion of Christchurchs central business
district can no longer be developed. We have
something similar here: a large part of the city
along the riverfront, which is liquefiable soils,
P O R T L A N D M O N T H LY
J U LY 20 14
81
The Portland
ival Kit
Earthquake Susprv
end at least one
We should prepare to
be six months.) Get
week off the grid. (May
stic staycation ever!
ready for your most ru
CHARCOAL OR PROPANE FOR OUTDOOR COOKING. A BAYOU CLASSIC 12-INCH DOUBLE JET COOKER
FROM LOWES ($60) CAN BE USED IN
THE MEANTIME FOR CAMPING!
A MINIMUM OF ONE GALLON OF WATER PER PERSON, PER DAY, STORED IN FIVEGALLON CONTAINERS. APARTMENT DWELLERS MIGHT CONSIDER A LIFESTRAW
PERSONAL WATER FILTER ($20). HOME-DWELLERS WITH WATER HEATERS, SAY
HELLO TO YOUR NEW DRINKING FOUNTAINS.
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P O R T L A N D M O N T H LY
J U LY 20 14
AN INCINERATING TOILET? UP TO
$3,000? GOOGLE IT. PH
REALITY CHECK
Estimated on:
cost in Oreg
Surviva!l
Guide
$32 billion
THE
FAMILY
PLAN
HOW WILL WE
COMMUNICATE?
SMOKE SIGNALS! Kidding. Well, maybe.
Phoning within the city, checking Facebook, and doing business may be difficult
for weeks. Vulnerabilities range from major fiber lines running underground and
over those damned bridges to wireless
antennas sitting on liquefaction soils or
on buildings that will collapse or be unusable. According to the Oregon Resiliency
Plans analysis, restoring full communications will take up to three months.
WHAT WEVE DONE: The city has established a network of 48 Basic Earthquake
Emergency Communication Nodes that
will be deployed in red-and-white tents in
parks and open spaces throughout the city
to receive shortwave radio transmissions.
WHAT WE SHOULD DO: Get to know your
neighbors, so when the shaking stops you
have the beginnings of a cohesive community. Figure out the planned site of the
nearest emergency nodefind maps via
portlandoregon.gov/pbem. Designate a
family contact outside the western states.
And see our sidebar, page 90, on how to
join the citys network of trained emergency volunteers.
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