7.

Probability

Revision on set:
A set is a collection of elements has the same properties.

For examples:
A = {1, 3, 5, 7, 9}

B = {m, a, g, h, r, b, y}

C = {Aly, Ayman, Ahmed}

Elements and subsets

If A = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}

B = {2, 4, 6}

Then we can say that:

3 A and 3 B
Also B A
Empty set :
={}

has no elements.

Sets & Relations:

Representation

Symbol

Page 1

S
S

AS

A B and

A B or

AB=

Ac

A~B

Page 2

S = {1, 2, 3 10}

S
A
B2

A = {1, 2, 3, 5}
B = {2, 3, 4, 6, 7}

1
5

4
6
7

C = {8, 9}

10

a) Intersection : and
A B = {2, 3}
AC={}
A S = A {1, 2, 3, 5}
b) Intersection : or
A B = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}
A or B or both.
A C = {1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9}
A S = S {1, 2, 3, 5, 10}
c) Subtraction ~:
A ~ B = {1, 5}
A but not B
B ~ A = {4, 6, 7} B but not A
S ~ A = {4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
A~S=
Ac

= not A

S ~ A = {4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}

Bc

= not B

S ~ B = {1, 5, 8, 9, 10}

Note:
5A & 5B
AS & AB

Probability
Page 3

C
8
9

Basic Definitions:
1)Experiment:
It refers to the process of obtaining an observed result of
some phenomenon.
2)Trail:
The performance of an experiment is called a trial.
3)Outcome:
The observed result on a trial of the experiment.
4)Random Experiment: Its an experiment but
i. All possible outcomes can be completely
defined in advance.
ii. Can be repeated, theoretically, any number of
times under identical conditions but we cant
predict which of these outcomes will exactly
occur when the experiment is carried out.
For example, if a coin is tossed, therere two
possible outcomes of the experiment:
Heads (denoted by H) &
Tails (denoted by T).
On any performance of this experiment one
does not know what the outcome will be. The
coin can be tossed as many times as desired.

5)Sample space (S):

Its the set of all possible outcomes of the experiment.
Example:
An experiment of tossing two coins, and observed the face
of each coin. The sample space is
S = [HH, HT, TH,
TT]
6)Event:
An event A is a collection of some of the possible outcomes
of the random experiment.
I.E
AS
Page 4

7)Mutually Exclusive Events:

Two events A and B are called mutually exclusive if both A
and B cannot occur in the same time (A B = ). like A
and C in the previous example.

Classical
probability

The probability that the event A will occur, denoted by P(A)

will defined as:
P(A) =

Number of outcomes belongs

Number of outcomes belongs
A S

n( A)
n(S)

Where 0 P (A) 1
Ex-1:
In an experiment of tossing a single fair dice, find the probability
of:
a) The appearance of the number 6.
b) The appearance of an even number.
c) The appearance of a prime number.

Solution:
Page 5

a)

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
A = {6}
n(A) = 1
1
6

P(A) =
b) B = {2, 4, 6}

c) C = {2, 3, 5}

n(S) = 6

n(B) = 3

n(C) = 3

P(C)

P(B)

3
6

3
6

Ex-2:
A coin is tossed twice, find the probability of:
a) The appearance of one head.
b) The appearance of one head at least.
c) The appearance of one head at most.
Solution:
Note:

At least: The thing and over

or more.
At most: The thing and less.
n
n(S) = ( All possible outcomes)
Where n is number of trials.

H
Page 6

H
T
H
T

S = [HH, HT, TH, TT]

a) A = [HT, TH]

n(S) = 4

n(A) = 2

P(A) =

2
4

P(B) =

3
4

1
2

b)B = [HH, TH, HT]

n(B) = 3

c) C = [HT, TH, TT]

n(C) = 3

P(C) =

3
4

Ex-3:
A dice is tossed two times, find the probability of:
a) The appearance
b) The appearance
second.
c) The appearance
d) The appearance
e) The appearance
least.

of the number 2 in the first toss.

of the number 3 in the first toss and 5 in the
of the number 4 in any toss.
of the two numbers whose sum is 6.
of the two numbers whose difference is 4 at

Solution:
2nd
6

Page 7

5
4
3
2
1

n(S) =

(6)

1st

= 36

a) A = [(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6)]
n(A) = 6

P(A) =

b)B = [(3, 5)]

6
36

1
6

n(B) = 1

P(B) =

1
36

c) C = [(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4,
3), (4, 5), (4, 6)]

n(C) = 11

P(B) =

d)D = [(1, 5), (5, 1), (2, 4), (4, 2), (3, 3)]
n(D) = 5

P(D) =

5
36

e) E = [(1, 5), (5, 1), (1, 6), (6, 1), (2, 6), (6, 2)]
n(E) = 6

P(E) =

6
36

P = 1

Page 8

1
6

11
36

Ex-4:
Three students are in a swimming race. If the first and the
second have the same probability of winning and each is twice
as likely to win as the third. Whats the probability that the
second wins?
Solution:
Let, P(3rd) = x
2x

so, P(2nd) = 2x

P = 1

x=

x + 2x + 2x = 1

& P(1st) =

5x = 1

1
5

P(1st) =

2
5

P(2nd) =

2
5

P(3rd) =

1
5

Ex-5:
An integers from 1 to 100 is selected randomly, Find the
probability of getting a perfect square if all integers from 10 to
80 are twice likely to occur as the rest.
Solution:
Note: n(S) = 100 + (80 10 +
1) = 171
2

S = [1, 2, 3., 9, 10, 11, 12., 80, 81, 82, 100]

2

A = [1, 4, 9, 16, 25, 36, 49, 64, 81, 100]

n(A) = 15

P(A) =
Page 9

15
171

General Rule of Probability

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

Where:
P(A B) = 0

if A & B are mutually

exclusive
P(A B) = P(A) P(B) if A & B are
independent
Ex-6:
The probability that Mohamed Nasser passes Mathmatics
examination is 0.85 and the probability that he passes English
examination is 0.75. Find the probability that Mohamed passes at
least one course.
Solution:
P(A) = 0.85
are independent

P(B) = 0.75

coz the 2 events

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) [P(A) P(B)]

P(A B) = 0.85 + 0.75 [0.85 0.75] = 0.9625

Ex-7:
If A & B are two events with P(A) = 1/4, P(A B) = 1/3, and P(B)
= k ; where k is unknown. Find k in each of the following:
i.

A and B are mutually exclusive.

Page 10

ii.
iii.

A and B are independent.

A is subset of B A B.

Solution:
P(A) = 1/4, P(A B) = 1/3, and P(B) = k
i.

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)

1/3 = 1/4 + k 0

ii.

1
12

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) [P(A) P(B)]

1/3 = 1/4 + k [k 1/4]
1
12

iii.

k = 1/3 1/4 =

4 3
12

3k
4

k=

4
36

1
9

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A)

1/3 = 1/4 + k 1/4
k = 1/3
Complementary of the second

P(

)=1
P(A)

Ex-8:
Three students are in a swimming race. If the first and the
second have the same probability of winning and each is twice
as likely to win as the third.
a. Whats the probability that the first or the second wins?
b. Whats the probability that the second doesnt win?
Solution:
From ex.-4:
P(1st) =

2
5

P(2nd) =
Page 11

2
5

P(3rd) =

1
5

a. P(1st 3rd) = P(1st) + P(2nd) [P(1st) P(2nd)]

P(1st 3rd) =

2
5

1
5

b. P(not 2 ) = 1 P(2 ) = 1
nd

3
5

0=

nd

2
5

3
5

Note:

All the outcomes of any random experiment are mutually

exclusive with each other.
Ex-9:
A box contains 9 balls where 4 balls are white and 5 balls are
black. If 2 balls are drowning randomly from the box with
replacement, calculate the probability of each of the following:
a. Both balls are black.
b. Both balls are of the same color.
c. Both balls are of different color.
Solution:

P(

W2

)=

Independent / Separate

4
9
P(

P(

4 5

)=

)=

P(

W2

4
9

W
B2

W1

P(
Page 12

B1

)=

)=

5
9

4
9

P(
16
81

S=[

20
81

20
81

B2

)=

4
9

25
81

W 1 W 2 ,W 1 B2 , B1 W 2 , B1 B2

a. P(

B 1 B2

) = P(

B1

) P(

B2

)=

5
9

5
9

25
81

b. P(both are of the same color) = P(both white both black)

= P(both white) + P(both black) [P(both white) P(both
black)]
=

16
81

25
81

0=

41
81

c. P(both are of different color) = 1 P(both are of the same

color)
=1

41
81

40
81

Note:

Independency: means two events or more in a separate

sample spaces.
Mutually exclusive: means the outcomes of an event in
the same sample space.
Also in the same sample space the events may be
intersected.

Ex-10:

Page 13

A box contains 20 balls numbered from 1 to 20. Two balls are

chosen at random with replacement from the box, calculate
the probability of each of the following:
a. Both balls carrying an even number.
b. Both balls carrying a prime number.
Solution:
S = [1, 2, 3, 20]
n(S) = 20
Even numbers = [2, 4, 6, 20]
Prime numbers = [2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19]
a) P(

E 1 E2

)=

10
20

10
20

100
400

b)P(

P 1 P2

)=

8
20

8
20

64
400

n(E) = 10
n(P) = 8

1
4

Ex-11:
In the experiment of tossing a dice twice, if A is the event of
getting the number 4 in any toss and B is the event of
getting two numbers whose sum is 6.
Find:
a) P(A), P(B), P(A B), P(A B).
b)P(A~B) and P(B~A).
Solution:
n(S) = 36
A = [(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3),
(4, 5), (4, 6)]
n(A) = 11
B = [(1, 5), (5, 1), (2, 4), (4, 2), (3, 3)]
Page 14

n(B) = 5

a)
P(A) =

11
36

P(B) =

5
36

P(A B) = [(2, 4), (4, 2)]

P(A B) =

2
36

P(A B) =

11
36

5
36

n(A B) = 2
2
36

14
36

b)
P(A~B) = P(A) P(A B)
=

11
36

2
36

9
36

P(B~A) = P(B) P(A B)

=

5
36

2
36

3
36

Ex-12:
A dice is designed such that, when it tossed the probability
of appearance of the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 are equal, and
the probability of appearance of number 6 equal three
times the probability of appearance of one. Calculate the
probability of:
a. The appearance of an odd number.
b. The appearance of a prime number.
c. The appearance of an even number.
Solution:
S = [1, 2, 3, 4,3 5, 6]

n(S) = 8

a.

A = [1, 3, 5]

n(A) = 3

P(A) =

3
8

b.

B = [2, 3, 5]

n(B) = 3

P(B) =

3
8

Page 15

c.

C = [2, 4, 6]

Ex-

12

n = 5

P(C) =

5
8

Two dice are tossed, if the first is fair and the second is designed
such ex-12 find the probability of:
a. The appearance of the number 2 in the first toss.
b. The appearance of the number 3 in the first toss and 5 in
the second.
c. The appearance of the number 4 in any toss.
d. The appearance of the two numbers whose sum is 6.
e. The appearance of the two numbers whose difference is 4 at
least.
Solution:
2nd
6
5
4
3
2
1

1st

n(S) = 48
a. A = [(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), 3(2, 5), (2, 6)]
Page 16

n(A) = 8

P(A) =

b. B = [(3, 5)]

8
48

1
6

n(B) = 1

P(B) =

1
48

c. C = [(1, 4), (2, 4), (3, 4), (4, 4), (5, 4), (6, 4), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4,
3), (4, 5), (4, 6)]

n(C) = 13

P(B) =

13
48

d. D = [(1, 5), (5, 1), (2, 4), (4, 2), (3, 3)]
n(D) = 5

P(D) =

5
48

3
3 1), (2, 6), (6, 2)]
e. E = [(1, 5), (5, 1),
(1, 6), (6,

n(E) = 10
Ex-

12

P(E) =

10
48

Two dice are tossed, if the first is fair and the second is designed
such that when it tossed the probability of the appearance of an
even number is double the probability of the appearance of an
odd number, find the probability of:
a. The appearance of the number 2 in the first toss.
b. The appearance of the number 3 in the first toss and 5 in
the second.
c. The appearance of the number 4 in any toss.
d. The appearance of the two numbers whose sum is 6.
e. The appearance of the two numbers whose difference is 4 at
least.

Page 17

2nd
6
5
4
3
2
1

1st

Solution:
n(S) = 54
a. A = [(2, 1),2 (2, 2), (2,23), (2, 4), 2(2, 5), (2, 6)]
n(A) = 9

P(A) =

b. B = [(3, 5)]

9
54

1
6

n(B) = 1

P(B) =

1
54

2
2
2
c. C = [(1,
4),2 (2, 4),
(3,24), (4,
4), 2(5, 4), (6, 24), (4, 1), (4, 2),2 (4,

3), (4, 5), (4, 6)]

n(C) = 19

P(B) =

2
d. D = [(1, 5), (5, 1),
(2,2 4), (4, 2), (3, 3)]

n(D) = 7

P(D) =

7
54

2
2 1), 2(2, 6), (6, 2)]
e. E = [(1, 5), (5, 1),
(1, 6), (6,

n(E) = 9

P(E) =

Page 18

9
54

19
54

Conditional
Probability
The events are independent but the sample space will
change.
A2

A1

)=

( A 2 A 1)
(A 1 )

Then
P

( A2 A 1)

A1

=P

( A1 )

P(

A2

P(1st 2nd)= P(1st) P(2nd/1st)

Ex-13:
A box contains 9 balls where 5 balls are black and 4 balls are
white. Two balls are drawn randomly from the box without
replacement. Calculate the probability that:
a. The first is black and the second is white.
b. Both balls are black.
c. Both balls are of the same colors.
d. Both balls are of different colors.
Solution:
P(

W2

W1

)=

3
8
P(

5
Page 19

W1

)=

4
9

P(

B2

W1

5
8

)=

P(
P(

a. P(

B1

5
9

b. P(

B1

W2

4
8

B2

B1

=
/

B1

)=P

( B1)

P(

W2

B1

W2

B1

B1

)=

5
9

P(

B2

B1

)=

4
8

)=

4
8

20
72
5
9

)=

4
8

20
72

c. P(Both are of the same colors) = P(both white both

black)
=(

4
9

3
8

)+(

5
9

4
8

)=

32
72

d. P(Both are of different colors) = 1 P(Both are of the

same colors)
=1

32
72

40
72

Ex-14:
A box contains 12 balls where 3 balls are white, 4 balls are
red and 5 balls are black. Two balls are drawn randomly
from the box without replacement. Calculate the
probability that:
a. The first is red and the second is white.
b. The first is black and the second is red.
c. Both balls are of different colors.
Solution:
Page 20

P(

P(
W

W1

5
11

P(

R1

)=

W1

W2

2
11

)=

W1

4
11

)=

B2

P(

P(

3
11

R2

P(

R1 ) =

)=
B

3
12

W2

R1

R2

P(

P(

B2

)=

3
11

)=

4
12

W1

R1

)=

5
11

P(

W2

B1

)=

3
11

P(

)=

5
12

B1

P(

R2

B1

)=

4
11

4
11

Page 21

P(

B2 / B1 ) =

W2

R2

R1

) = P(

R1

B1

) = P(

B1

12
1 32

P(

b.

P(

B1

c.

P(both are of different colors) = 1 P(both are of the same

) P(

R2

/
/

R1

3
11

a.

) P(

W2

4
12

R1

B1

)=

colors)
= 1 P(both W both R both B)
= 1 [P( W 1 W 2 / W 1 ) + P( R1 R2 /
)]
= 1 [(
38
1 32

3
12

2
11

4
12

) + [(

3
11

5
12

)=

R1

) + [(

) + P(
5
12

4
11

B1

4
11

=
=

B2

20
1 32

B1

)] =1

47
1 32

Ex-14:
Two cards are selected from 20 cards numbered from 1 to 20
without replacement. Find the probability that:
a. Both cards carrying an even number.
b. Both cards carrying a prime number.
Solution:
S = [1, 2, 3, 20]
n(S) = 20
S(E) = [2, 4, 6, 20]

n(E) = 10

S(P) = [2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19]

a. P(

E1

10
20

b. P(

P1

8
20

E2 / E1

9
19

P2 /P 1

7
19

E1

) P(

E2 / E1

P1

) P(

P2 /P 1

) = P(
=

190
380

) = P(
=

n(P) = 8

56
380

Page 22

P(

/B) = 1
P(A/B)

Ex-14:
If P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.8 and P(AB) = 0.9. Find P(

/B)

Solution:
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(AB)
0.9 = 0.6 + 0.8 P(AB)
P(AB) = 0.5
P(A/B)

P(AB) = P(BA) = P(B)

0.5 = 0.8 P(A/B)

P(

/B) = 1

5
8

P(A/B) =
=

3
8

Page 23

5
8