24 XH 8

Traceca Corridor
Traffic and Feasibility Studies - TNREG 9803
Module E :
Transport of crude oil and oil products on the Caspian Sea
Feasibility study for

the rehabilitation of Dubendi Oil Terminal (task E3)
April 2001
Report Cover Page
Project Title
: Traceca Corridor - Traffic and Feasibility Studies
Module E Title
: Transport of crude oil and oil products on the Caspian Sea
Project Number
: TNREG 9803
Module E Countries
: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan
Local Operators
EC Consultant
Azerbaijan
Mr. Ikram Sadikov
Head of Transport Dept.
Ministry of Economy
Baku
Headquarters
Bceom Socit Franaise d'Ingnierie

Place des Frres Montgolfier
78286 Guyancourt Cedex, France
Kazakhstan
Project office
Mr. Talgat Abylgazin

General Director
Aktau Commercial Sea Port
Aktau
9 Sultanov Street, Appt. 67

Baku, Azerbaijan
Mr. Ph. Delaporte & Mr. A. Merrien
traceca@traffic.in-baku.com
seaport_akt@kaznet.kz
Sub-Consultant for Module E
Turkmenistan
Mr. Bekmyrat Gurbanmuradov
General Director
Turkmen Maritime Lines
Turkmenbashi
Port of Marseilles Authority, France

Mr. J.M. Bocognano
J.Bocognano@marseille-port.fr
turkmendeniz@online.tm
Date of report :
25 April 2001
Reporting period :
February to April 2001
Authors of report :
Andr Merrien and Jean-Michel Bocognano
EC Monitoring team
[name]
[signature]
[date]
[name]
[signature]
[date]
[name]
[signature]
[date]
EC Delegation
Tacis Bureau
[task manager]
Transport of crude oil and oil products on the Caspian Sea - European Commission Tacis-Traceca Programme
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Table of contents
1. Project synopsis for module E ......................................................................................................................4

2. Summary and conclusions...........................................................................................................................5
3. Oil flow projections.......................................................................................................................................7
4. Current condition of Dubendi Oil Terminal...................................................................................................8
4.1 General .................................................................................................................................................8
4.2 Navigation channel ...............................................................................................................................8
4.3 Breakwater............................................................................................................................................9
4.4 Piers......................................................................................................................................................9
4.5 Tank farms..........................................................................................................................................10
4.6 Rail-tank-car loading station ...............................................................................................................10
4.7 Waste Water Treatment Plant ............................................................................................................11
4.8 Oil pipe networks ................................................................................................................................11
4.9 Pump stations .....................................................................................................................................11
4.10 Power stations and electricity networks ..........................................................................................12
4.11 Administrative buildings ..................................................................................................................12
4.12 Miscellaneous deficiencies .............................................................................................................12
5. Rehabilitation plans....................................................................................................................................13
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
Short-term rehabilitation plan..............................................................................................................14

Medium-term rehabilitation plan .........................................................................................................15
Long-term rehabilitation plan ..............................................................................................................16
Investment costs.................................................................................................................................17
6. Ownership and operation schemes ...........................................................................................................17

7. Financial assessment ................................................................................................................................18
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4
General ...............................................................................................................................................18
Computation of revenues....................................................................................................................19
Computation of operating expenses ...................................................................................................20
Financial results ..................................................................................................................................22
___________________
Annex 1:
Abbreviations & Acronyms, References and Staff List
Annex 2:
Photographs of Dubendi Oil Terminal
Annex 3:
Financial tables
Annex 4:
Maps and drawings
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Feasibility Study for the Rehabilitation of Dubendi Oil Terminal - April 2001
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1. Project synopsis for module E

(Revised version, updated in April 2001)
Project Title
: Traceca Corridor - Traffic and Feasibility Studies
Module E Title
: Transport of crude oil and oil products on the Caspian Sea
Project Number
: TNREG 9803
Module E Countries
: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan
Wider objective:
To promote adequate and safe transport of crude oil and oil products
on the Caspian Sea
Specific Objectives:
A traffic forecast for oil and oil products

The condition of existing infrastructure for oil transport
The feasibility of investments in Dubendi oil terminal
A brief pre-feasibility study for Aktau Oil Berths n4 & n5
Planned outputs:
A detailed traffic forecast

A detailed evaluation of the transport infrastructure (terminals and
vessels)
An overall feasibility study for rehabilitation of Dubendi oil terminal
A specific pre-feasibility study for Aktau Oil Berths n4 & n5
Project activities:
Preparation of supply demand analysis for crude oil and oil products
Preparation of traffic forecasts for crude oil and oil products
Evaluation of terminals in Aktau, Dubendi and Turkmenbashi
Evaluation of tanker fleet
Feasibility study for rehabilitation of Dubendi oil terminal
Brief pre-feasibility study for Aktau Oil Berths n4 & n5
Target group(s):
Ministries of Transport, Oil terminal operators, Tanker operators
Project start date:
15 March 2000 (Module E)
Expected completion date:
August 2001
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2. Summary and conclusions

Dubendi Oil Terminal is currently the weakest node along the Traceca oil transportation route from the
eastern shore of the Caspian to the Black Sea, its throughput capacity being limited to approximately 4 million
tonnes per year. Since this route is strategically crucial for exports of Central Asian oil, as an alternative to
Russian itineraries, increase in oil flows through Dubendi may reasonably be expected. A wide range of
projections have been elaborated, the lowest ones being quite cautious:
Figures in million tonnes of oil through Dubendi Oil Terminal
in 2005 in 2010 in 2020
If Kazakh & Turkmen oils to be moved via the Main Export Pipeline are unloaded in
Dubendi port - ("high hypothesis")
12
17
If not (cross-Caspian pipeline, or any other option)

("low hypothesis")
Obviously the above figures can only be reached if improvement works are carried out at Dubendi Oil
Terminal, as well as on the other chain elements (the Aktau port, the tanker vessels, the railway lines from
Azerbaijan to Georgia and the Georgian ports). As far as Dubendi is concerned, this report proposes three
rehabilitation plans:
!
A short-term plan, allowing to increase the oil throughput up to 8 Mt per year, sufficient till 2020 in the low
hypothesis, only till 2006 in the high traffic hypothesis.
A medium-term rehabilitation plan, enabling to cope with 12 Mt per year, to be implemented by year 2010
in the optimistic hypothesis.
A long-term plan consistent with 18 Mt per year, needed by 2020 if traffic grows as fast as in the high
hypothesis.
It should be pointed out that the short-term plan covers vital items aiming at improving environmental
protection (upgrading the waste water treatment plant, supplying oil spill prevention equipment) and safety
(renewal of electricity networks, installation a modern fire-fighting system).
The related investment costs can be split up as follows:
Cost estimates in million USD
Short-term plan
Medium-term plan
Long-term plan
Total 3 plans
Infrastructures
7.270
7.790
2.890
17.950
Superstructures
3.730
11.080
11.620
26.430
Other equipment
1.710
1.050
0.105
2.865
Total
12.710
19.920
14.615
47.245
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In order to evaluate the sustainability of the proposals a financial assessment has been performed,
1
considering the Dubendi Oil Terminal as a global "Cost and Profit Centre" . The results of the analysis are
summarised below:
!
In case no investment is undertaken and traffic is limited to 4 Mt per year, the terminal would yet be
profitable: annual cash-flows will always be positive and discounted global cash-flow should exceed 23
million USD. However, refraining from investing would entail unacceptable risks with regard to safety and
to environmental protection.
If traffic grows as fast as in the optimistic hypothesis, and provided that required investments are
implemented, the Internal Rate of Return would be close to15%. Nevertheless, although the global cashflow would be high (34 million USD), annual cash-flows would be negative till year 2007; if sufficient liquid
assets are not initially available to cancel cash needs, a loan should be contracted. The amount of this
2
loan should be around 12 million USD .

!
In case traffic growth is weak, as in the "low-case", and the short-term plan is implemented, the Internal
Rate of Return will be limited to 11%. The discounted global cash-flow would reach 25 million USD,
whereas annual cash-flows would almost always be on the positive side (a slight tariff increase or a very
limited loan would easily cancel the cash need).
The first conclusion of this study is that it would be unreasonable to leave the terminal in its current condition;
threats to workers' safety as well as against the environment are far above acceptable standards.
On the other hand, if Caspian TransCo receives reliable guarantees that Chevron will carry on increasing its
oil shipments via Dubendi, then the short-term improvement plan should be launched without hesitating. Even
if oil traffic doesn't exceed the 8 Mt threshold, the investment will be profitable.
Lastly, the most optimistic traffic option is also the one which may bring the highest benefits in terms of cashflow and of Rate of Return. The required 12 million USD loan should be easily granted, provided that a fair
agreement is reached between BISP, SOCAR and Caspian TransCo.
The sharing out of costs and benefits would have to be fairly discussed between BISP, SOCAR and Caspian TransCo,
under the control of the Government of Azerbaijan.
The EBRD might grant a loan to help finance the project. However, since private companies are involved in it (mainly
Chevron and Caspian TransCo), an EBRD loan would be limited to a small proportion of the project cost.
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3. Oil flow projections

Following oil flow projections regarding Traceca countries were elaborated in August 2000 for the needs of
the "Forecasts of Oil Flows" report:
Current and projected oil flows
(in million tonnes per annum)
1999
2005 2010
2020
Exports from Kazakhstan

To Russia and to Europe via the Druzhba pipeline system
To the Russian Orsk refinery
To Europe
via the CPC pipeline
via Aktau, Makhachkala and the Caucasian northern route
via Aktau, the Caspian Sea and the MEP
via Aktau, Dubendi and the Caucasian western route
To Asia via Iran
7,5
6,5
7,5
6,5
7,5
6,5
7,5
6,5
0,0
0,5
2,0
0,5
15,0
0,5
2,0
3,0
0,5
25,0
0,5
4,0
4,0
1,5
45,0
1,0
6,0
5,0
6,0
17,0
35,0
49,0
77,0
via the Caspian Sea and the MEP

via the Caspian Sea, Dubendi and the Caucasian western route
To Asia via Iran
0,5
2,5
1,0
1,0
4,0
2,0
2,0
16,0
3,0
3,0
24,0
Total Turkmenistan
3,0
6,0
20,0
30,0
1,9
3,9
5,0
5,0
5,0
2,0
7,0
7,0
20,0
4,0
8,5
8,5
36,0
9,0
5,8
17,0
38,0
62,0
Total Kazakhstan
Exports from Turkmenistan
To Europe
Exports from Azerbaijan

To Europe
via the Caucasian northern route
via the Caucasian western route
via the MEP
To Asia via the Caspian Sea and Iran
Total Azerbaijan
From the preceding it may be concluded that transit of crude oil through Dubendi port should grow, and that
growth will be sharper if Kazakh and Turkmen oil feeding the MEP are to be shipped onboard vessels to
cross the Caspian Sea:
Figures in million tonnes of oil through Dubendi Oil Terminal
in 2005 in 2010 in 2020
If Kazakh & Turkmen oils to be moved via the MEP are unloaded in Dubendi port
12
17
If not (cross-Caspian pipeline, or any other option)
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4. Current condition of Dubendi Oil Terminal

4.1
General
In the Soviet times the Baku area was a major centre for oil processing. Baku refineries had a capacity of up
to 25 million tonnes of crude oil per year. They were processing not only oil extracted in the area but also
significant volumes brought from other parts of the Soviet Union, particularly Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.
On the other hand large volumes of petroleum products were exported in direction of those two countries with
destinations as far as Siberia or even Kamchatka.
The terminal facilities of the Baku port were at one time handling inflows and outflows, particularly at pier
n20. However, to cope with increasing flows, at the beginning of the sixties it was decided to build a
dedicated oil terminal on the Absheron Peninsula in a site called Dubendi that is naturally well protected by
the Pirallachy island from the east and from the south (the island is connected to the mainland by an artificial
dike). Dubendi is at a distance of 47 km from Baku by land and 92 nautical miles by sea. Construction of the
port started in 1965.
Two kinds of flows are presently transiting by Dubendi:
Crude oil extracted in the region of the Absheron Peninsula, which reaches Dubendi by underwater
pipelines. It is shipped by rail to the SOCAR storage facilities in Sangachal, 60 km south of Baku, before
being forwarded by the AIOC pipeline to the Supsa port, on the Black Sea.
Crude oil imported by tanker either (the bulk of it) from Aktau, Kazakhstan, from where it is mainly
shipped by Tengizchevroil, or from Okarem or Cheleken, Turkmenistan, where it is produced by Mobil
and Total. This oil is sent to Batumi port on the Black Sea by the Caspian TransCo Company.
Dubendi Oil Terminal mainly consists of a navigation channel, four piers sheltered by a breakwater as well as
onshore facilities: tank-farms, a rail-tank-car loading station, a waste water treatment plant, oil pipe networks,
pump stations, power stations, electricity and water networks, administrative buildings.
All infrastructures are owned by BISP whereas most unloading facilities, pipe systems and tank-farms belong
to SOCAR.
There is no bunkering station left in Dubendi. Tankers refuel in other ports of call.
4.2
Navigation channel
The navigation channel starts from the 10 m hydrographic contour line, and was initially dredged down to 10
m below the Caspian Sea chart datum. It is 100 m wide on the sea bed and stretches along 2.5 nautical
miles. Due to northern wave action the channel is subject to continuous siltation. Frequent dredging works
have been required to maintain water depths, however insufficient since a shoal currently reduces the depth
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to 6.5 m in the vicinity of the breakwater head. The port basin was also initially dredged to 10 m, but siltation
3
has resulted in restricted depths: 9 m in the turning area, 8.5 m to 7.5 m along the berths .
The channel is marked with four port and four starboard buoys, which are highly corroded and partly not
working. In addition, two leading lines are marked by onshore beacons. The beacons in the first section are in
4
poor condition but still working, whilst beacons in the second section are out of operation .
4.3
Breakwater
The breakwater is of rubble mound type. Its total length is 1,035 m, consisting of a 250 m long root, a 540 m
long trunk section and a 245 m long head. The elevation of the top is 3 m above the Caspian chart datum.
The root section is protected with quarry stones, the trunk stretch is covered with 4.6 tonne concrete cubes
whilst the head part is protected with 10 to 15 tonne concrete cubes. The end of the breakwater head is
bordered by a sheet pile wall that reduces the structure width.
Due to the increase in the Caspian Sea level incoming waves are currently stronger than those which were
taken into account at the design phase; this is the reason why several parts of the armour layer and of the
cap failed, including at the head section, as shown on the attached photos. There is almost a breach between
connection with pier n2 and connection with pier n5.
The inner part of the breakwater is bordered with reinforced concrete piles supporting pipelines which are
generally severally damaged, except between the root and pier n1. Diver inspections revealed that piles are
damaged underwater too.
Floodlighting system along the breakwater is destroyed, as well as all water and electricity networks.
4.4
Piers
Four piers were constructed from 1972 to 1975, to allow berthing of tankers: pier n1, pier n2, pier n3 and
pier n5. Pier n4 was initially foreseen, close to pier n3, but finally not built. Piers n2 and n5 were never
used for oil traffic, they only accommodated tug boats, dredgers and other port vessels.
Each pier has two symmetrical berths, design capacity of each berth being 2.5 Mt per annum.
Pier n1 and pier n3 are operated by Caspian TransCo for unloading crude oil shipped from Aktau, Okarem
5
and Cheleken .
3
The CSC tanker fleet operating in the Caspian Sea consists of 33 tankers:
3 type Kafur Mamedov tankers:
12,300 dwt
Mean load draught: 8.00 m
9 type Absheron tankers:
7,400 dwt
5,500 dwt
al
21 type G Shikhlinskiy tankers:
The three largest tankers were recently purchased with the objective of reducing transportation costs. However this
acquisition didn't provide the expected benefit so far, since water depths in Aktau and Dubendi are not sufficient to
accommodate fully loaded 12,300 dwt tankers.
4
A specific project has been undertaken to upgrade navigation aids in Baku and Dubendi ports, to be implemented in
2001 under the Traceca programme. This project includes supply of radar equipment, Global Maritime Distress Safety
System, radio communication equipment, renewal of buoys, beacons, leading lights and lighthouses.
Pier n3 is also equipped for unloading refined oil products. However throughput of refined oil has fallen below a very
limited level in Dubendi (Baku city port has dedicated berths for unloading refined oil, originating from Turkmenbashi
refinery and mainly destined to Azerbaijan and to western Europe).
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These piers are made of reinforced concrete piled structures consisting of berthing sections connected with
trestle bridges. They are equipped with fenders, bollards, oil unloading arms, oil pipelines, water pipes, valves
and lightening masts.
All concrete structures are highly deteriorated, cracked and show corroded steel bars, above sea water and
below water level as well.
Almost all fenders are simple rubber tyres which are not adequate.
Oil arms and pipes are in need of maintenance, although in working conditions.
Fire-fighting system is not suitable since it is only based on water, except a small foam equipment recently
installed on pier n3 - water is not adequate to fight hydrocarbon fires -. Moreover, there is no automated
system to give the alarm.
Other steel equipment (stairs, handrails, etc.) are very corroded and generally out of shape.
Electricity networks are such in poor condition that they are indeed dangerous.
Condition of pedestrian traffic on piers is very bad and somehow risky.
Lastly, access to pier n3, via a 220 m long rubble mound structure protected with 300 kg quarry stones, has
been damaged by wave action.
4.5
Tank farms
Two main tank farms are available. The first one borders the port basin and is used to store crude oil (16
tanks, total capacity 170,000 m3 - available current capacity is only 130,000 m3 because some tank bottoms
are obstructed with viscous products -), whereas the second one is on top of the hill (52 tanks, total capacity
260,000 m3); the latter was dedicated to refined products but is no longer used.
Current storage capacity for crude oil (130,000 m3) is a bit low: on the year 2000 traffic basis (3.5 Mt) it only
allowed an average "oil idle time" of 13 days. For the needs of the following project a more comfortable ratio
has been considered (20 days), entailing use of the upper tank farm for crude oil storage and extension of the
lower tank-farm.
4.6
Rail-tank-car loading station
Two pipelines allow transfer of crude oil from the lower tank farm to the RTC station, located a few kilometres
away, on top of the plateau. The station includes two blocks, each one being designed for 21 RTC at a time.
It is equipped with a complete and modern foam fire-fighting station.
The RTC loading station is recent and runs under satisfactory safety conditions.
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10
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4.7
Waste Water Treatment Plant
The port has a Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) built in 1970 for treating sanitary water, bilge water
6
from the tankers, and waste water from the land-based crude oil storage tanks . The original design capacity
of the WWTP was 1,500 to 2,000 tonnes of waste water per day. Since 1991 the WWTP has been operated
by the "28 of May" Company, the same Company that operates the port reception and oil transport facilities.
The WWTP staff and quality control laboratory are at the site. The laboratory is not capable of testing for
regulated parameters in the WWTP discharge. For complete analyses samples must be sent offsite. Analysis
of the sea water for phenols and other contaminants is according to Gost standards.
The WWTP features the following processes:
!
3 to 4 hours of settling in crude oil tanks (containing crude oil delivered from Aktau and Turkmenbashi, as
well as from Pirallachy Island, which now totals about 78.000 tonnes daily).
Draw off of water/oil emulsion (about 80 to 100 tonnes daily, depending on tanker traffic).
Two 5,000 tonne tanks for oil/water separation (about 17 to 20 tonnes of oil is returned to the crude oil
tanks).
Discharge of treated waste water to sea.
The WWTP is poorly maintained and operated. Significant bypassing is reported to occur.
4.8
Oil pipe networks
Except the rare lines which are still being used, all other pipelines are worn-out. Moreover, pipeline supports
which are standing along the breakwater are severely damaged.
4.9
Pump stations
7
There are three pump stations on the terminal: pump stations n27 and n62, serving the upper tank farm ,
and Caspian TransCo's pump station, serving the RTC loading facility. The latter is the only new and sound
one. The two others are operating but they are in need of overhaul.
6
7
The plant doesn't receive any ballast water since vessels arriving at the port are loaded with oil.
Crude oil is delivered to the lower tank farm by the use of vessel pumps. It may be underlined that unloading
operations are frequently delayed because of failures on vessel pumps.
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11
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4.10 Power stations and electricity networks

The terminal is fed by two main transformers delivering 6 kV power to seven sub-transformers producing 0.4
kV power. All transformers and sub-transformers are in need of overhaul. Besides, the whole electricity
supply network is in advanced stage of deterioration and therefore dangerous with regard to risk of fire:
!
cable ways are not covered;
many connection boxes are no longer protected from dust and rain, and several cable connections are
not insulated;
earthening devices don't look efficient;
most supporting poles are corroded and about to collapse.
4.11 Administrative buildings

Though main building structures look sound, administrative buildings do not offer decent working conditions.
They need to be refurbished, they also need some modern office equipment and adequate improvements
allowing to centralise port operation control.
4.12 Miscellaneous deficiencies

Traffic of vehicles and pedestrians is not controlled according to international safety standards applicable to
oil terminals. All dangerous areas ought to be clearly marked and prohibited to non-authorised vehicles and
persons.
The general fire-fighting system is not adequate, especially because it does not include enough foam
systems (only pier n3 has a small foam tank). Furthermore, the water network is not well maintained and
outlets are difficult to locate.
There was no confirmation of the presence of appropriate oil spill prevention equipment, although a short old
boom guard for localising emergency oil spills in the process of unloading tankers could be seen. The "oil
refuse collector" ship carries out mechanical collection of oil and waste floating on the surface. The fire boat
is also supposed to be equipped with operational boom guards for localising oil spills in the berth areas. The
port evidently expects help to come from the port of Baku in the case of critical oil spills. There was no
indication that an Emergency Response Plan has been developed. The port has requested booms of the
Anakonda type as part of the rehabilitation project.
It may be added that Azerbaijan, as a member of the IMO (as well as all other riparian states of the Caspian), has
accepted the various requirements of the IMO concerning oil pollution preparedness, response and co-operation. These
include reporting procedures for vessels, emergency response plans, and international co-operation.
Port crude oil and petroleum product offloading and onloading facilities, which fall under the IMO directives on
preparedness, are in the process of improving facilities, developing Emergency Oil Spill Response Plans, and upgrading
equipment required to meet the terms of the plans. In general these ports should be prepared to handle US EPA Tier 1
and Tier 2 spills. The minimum requirements for Tier 1 (up to 10 tonnes) and Tier 2 (from 10 to 100 tonnes) spills are as
follows:
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12
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1.
Oil spill response vessel
2.
Rapid deployment boom system
3.
Permanently-moored boom
4.
Rope skimmer oil mop
5.
Portable power supply
6.
Sorbents
7.
Harbour compensators
8.
Harbour skimming system
9.
Individual response pits
10. Capacity for installation & commissioning of equipment

11. Spare parts and maintenance
5. Rehabilitation plans
Rehabilitation plans have been developed to cope with the projected increase of oil flows, to improve the
environmental protection at the port and to comply with safety requirements. Two hypotheses of oil flows
8
have been considered, based on the former traffic projections :

in 2005
in 2010
in 2020
High hypothesis
12
17
Low hypothesis
Figures in Mt
Rehabilitation plans have been adjusted accordingly:

!
A short-term rehabilitation plan allowing an annual flow of 4 to 8 Mt, sufficient till 2020 in the "low-traffic"
hypothesis, till 2006 only in the "high-traffic" case.
A medium-term rehabilitation plan allowing an annual flow of 8 to 12 Mt, to be launched in 2005 in the
"high-traffic" case.
A long-term rehabilitation plan allowing an annual flow of 12 to 18 Mt, to be launched in 2010 in the "hightraffic" case.
Without any investment DOT capacity would be limited to approximately 4 Mt per annum - or reduced in case the
breakwater carries on failing -.
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13
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5.1
Short-term rehabilitation plan
a. Infrastructures
As far as infrastructures are concerned, the short-term plan includes:
!
Rehabilitation of the root section and of the trunk section of the breakwater (total length 790 m) by
placement of heavier blocks on the armour layer and by widening the capping berm. This will require
preliminary wave studies and hydraulic tests.
Rehabilitation of pier n1 and pier n3 by repair of reinforced-concrete piles, slabs and beams (removal of
damaged concrete, sealing of new steel bars, injection of resin and projection of cement mortar),
replacement of fenders, bollards, stairs and handrails.
b. Superstructures
Regarding superstructures the short-term plan covers:
!
Road repair works on top of the breakwater, up to pier n1, on the access causeway to pier n3 as well as
in both tank-farm areas (including drainage systems and cable ditches).
Improvement works in the lower tank-farm (cleaning-out of tank bottoms and repair of floating roofs in
blocks 13a and 14).
Conversion of tanks in the upper tank-farm to provide an additional storage capacity of 120,000 t of crude
oil (blocks n4, n7 and n11).
Improvement of oil pipes and oil arms serving pier n1 and pier n3, as well as oil pipes in both tankfarms.
Overhaul of internal pump stations n27 and n62.
Rehabilitation of the Waste Water Treatment Plant.
Complete renovation of the electricity system, from the main transformers (including cables, cable ways,
connection boxes, earthening devices and floodlighting poles).
c. Other equipment
In the short-term plan rehabilitation of other equipment covers:
!
A preliminary in-door refurbishment of buildings in the lower and the upper port areas.
Renewal of the boiler unit and its connected utilities (electricity supply and steam pipes) .
Supply of a first set of environmental protection equipment (an oil boom, a rapid deployment boom
system, an oil skimmer and an oil-refuse collector).

!
Installation of a new fire-fighting system, including a sea-water pump, an upgraded water network, a foam
production station and an automated alarm system.
The boiler produces steam which is used to heat up crude oil pipes.
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14
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Installation of notice boards and signs informing port workers and visitors about the safety rules they
have to follow and prohibiting access to designated areas.
5.2
Medium-term rehabilitation plan
a. Infrastructures
As far as infrastructures are concerned, the medium-term plan includes:
!
Dredging of the navigation channel and of the port basin down to 10 m below CD, to allow 12,000 dwt oil
carriers to enter the port with full tanks
10
Rehabilitation of the head section of the breakwater (245 m long) by placement of heavier blocks on the
armour layer and by strengthening the sheet pile wall, on the basis of the results of wave studies and
hydraulic tests to be performed during the course of the first phase.
Rehabilitation of pier n2 by repair of reinforced-concrete piles, slabs and beams (removal of damaged
concrete, sealing of new steel bars, injection of resin and projection of cement mortar), placement of
fenders, bollards, stairs and handrails.
Rehabilitation of the berths dedicated to port vessels (tug boats, pilot vessels, fire fighting vessel,
pollution fighting units).
Reconstruction of slope protections along the western shore of the port basin (quarry stone revetment).
b. Superstructures
Regarding superstructures, the medium-term plan covers:
!
Road repair works on top of the breakwater, from pier n1 up to pier n2, as well as in both tank-farm
areas (including drainage systems and cable ditches).
Renovation of oil tanks 13b, in the lower tank-farm.
Extension of block 14, in the lower tank-farm, to increase oil storage capacity by 120,000 m3.
Complete overhaul of tanks in the upper tank-farm (tanks n4, n7 and n11).
Improvement of oil pipes and oil arms serving pier n2, as well as pipes in both tank-farms.
Electricity networks on the breakwater, on pier n2, on the port-vessel berth and in the extended tankblock 14 (including cables, cable ways, connection boxes, earthening devices and floodlighting poles).
c. Other equipment
In the medium-term plan rehabilitation of other equipment includes:
!
Completion of building refurbishment in the lower and the upper port areas, including installation of
computerised systems to centralise port operations.
Supply of a second set of environmental protection equipment (an oil boom, a second vessel for boom
deployment, a second oil skimmer and another oil-refuse collector).
10
This only make sense if consistent deepening works are undertaken in Aktau port.
________________________________________________________________________
15
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
5.3
Completion of the fire-fighting system with additional foam equipment for pier n2 and in the tank-farms.
Long-term rehabilitation plan
a. Infrastructures
As far as infrastructures are concerned, the long-term plan includes:
!
Dredging works in the vicinity of pier n5, down to 10 m below CD, to allow 12,000 dwt oil carriers to berth
along this pier with full loads.
Rehabilitation of pier n5 by repair of reinforced-concrete piles, slabs and beams (removal of damaged
concrete, sealing of new steel bars, injection of resin and projection of cement mortar), reconstruction of
collapsed concrete slabs, placement of fenders, bollards, stairs and handrails.
b. Superstructures
Regarding superstructures, the long-term plan covers:
!
Road repair works on top of the breakwater, from pier n2 up to pier n5, as well as in both tank-farm
areas (including drainage systems and cable ditches).
Renovation of oil tanks of blocks 13a and 14, in the lower tank-farm.
Complete overhaul of oil tanks of blocks 6, 8, 9 and 12, in the upper tank-farm.
Placement of oil pipes and oil arms serving pier n5.
Final upgrading of oil pipes in both tank-farms.
Extension of electricity networks on the breakwater and on pier n5 (including cables, cable ways,
connection boxes, earthening devices and floodlighting poles).
c. Other equipment
In the long-term plan this item simply deals with the supply of a third set of oil-spill prevention equipment: an
oil boom, a skimmer, an oil-mop rope and a oil-refuse collector.
________________________________________________________________________
16
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
5.4
Investment costs
Investment costs have been estimated according to current regional prices supplied by the Contractor's local
partners and also with reference to recent civil works performed in Azerbaijan. The details provided at the first
page of Annex 3 can be summarised as follows:
(cost estimates in thousands USD)
Short-term plan
Medium-term plan
Long-term plan
Total 3 plans
7,270
7,790
2,890
17,950
B. Superstructures
3,730
11,080
11,620
26,430
C. Other equipment
1,710
1,050
105
2,865
12,710
19,920
14,615
47,245
A. Infrastructures
Total A + B + C
6. Ownership and operation schemes

All infrastructures of DOT are owned by BISP (the channel, the breakwater and the piers), whereas
superstructures belong to SOCAR (the pipes, the oil arms, the pumps and the tanks). BISP also owns the
pilot boats, the tug boats and the navigation aids.
Caspian TransCo is the terminal operator
11
. For the operation of DOT Caspian TransCo has signed
agreements with CSC, with BISP as well as with SOCAR. The Consultant understood that tariffs are often
adjusted according traffic levels and to other miscellaneous parameters.
Each entity has its own staff working at the terminal: approximately 40 employees from BISP, 180 to 200 from
SOCAR (including 20% assigned to the underwater supply pipeline, which is out of the scope of this report),
and around 20 from Caspian TransCo.
11
Caspian TransCo is in charge of arranging multi-modal transportation of oil from the eastern side of the Caspian Sea
to the Black Sea port of Batumi, via Dubendi, in line with the terms of the Protocol signed in July 1999 by Officials of
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Georgia, within the framework of the Inogate programme.
________________________________________________________________________
17
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
7. Financial assessment
7.1
General
The objectives of the financial assessment are to evaluate the capacity of DOT to be self-supporting and to
bear the load of the improvement works which are required to comply with safety requirements, to protect the
environment and to cope with the projected increase of oil throughput. In this chapter DOT is considered as a
global "cost and profit centre", the sharing out of investment costs being to be agreed upon by negotiations
between BISP, SOCAR and Caspian TransCo.
Financial projections have been made according to three families of hypotheses:
1. No investment is undertaken and traffic is therefore limited to 4 Mt per year throughout the whole study
period (20 years).
2. Investments are carried out to cope with the low traffic hypothesis (4 Mt in year 2005, 6 Mt in year 2010
and 8 Mt in year 2020). The content of the investment programme is that of the "short term plan",
amounting to USD 12.7 million.
3. Investments are carried out to cope with the high traffic hypothesis (7 Mt in year 2005, 12 Mt in year 2010
and 17 Mt in year 2020). In this case the content of the investment programme covers the short-term
plan (USD 12.7 million), the medium-term plan (USD 19.9 million) and the long-term plan (USD 14.6
million), resulting in a total investment of USD 47.2 million.
________________________________________________________________________
18
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
7.2
Computation of revenues
DOT revenues have firstly been computed on the basis of current tariff rates and without considering any
loan or any grant. As a second stage, increased tariffs and loans have been taken into account in order to
reach more satisfactory financial results.
Sources of revenues are split into vessel dues, cargo dues and oil storage dues.
Vessel dues
Standard tanker tariffs at Dubendi Port are displayed in the following table.
Unit Rates
"Kafur Mamedov"
tankers
"Absheron"
tankers
"Gal Shikhlinskiy"
tankers
Vessel size (m3)
28,780
19,228
14,350
Standard oil load (t)

Unit
6,500
Sub-total
5,000
Sub-total
3,500
Sub-total
(1000 Manats)
(1000 Manats)
(1000 Manats)
Registration
(Manats)
lump sum
10
10
10
Sailing
lump sum
40
40
40
Channel
130
m3
3,741
2,499
1,865
Vessel
80
m3
2,302
1,538
1,148
Berth
120
m3
3,453
2,307
1,722
Mooring
lump sum
880
440
440
Tug-boat
340
m3
9,785
6,537
4,879
Total in thousands Manats
20,212
13,372
10,104
Total in USD per call *
4,500
3,000
2,250
Total in USD per tonne of oil *
0.69
0.59
0.64
* Using an exchange rate of 1 USD for 4,500 Manats
In the following an average standard rate of USD 0.65 per tonne of oil has been accounted for. Yet, it has
also been considered that CSC tankers simply pay a lump sum of USD 1000 per call, whichever type of
tanker calls at the port.
Cargo dues cover transfer of oil from ships to storage tanks. They are based on a rate of USD 0.60 per
tonne of oil.
Oil storage dues have been rounded at USD 0.90 per tonne of oil.
________________________________________________________________________
19
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
7.3
Computation of operating expenses
Operating expenses include labour cost, maintenance costs, energy consumption costs, overhead expenses,
financial charges - in case of loans -, as well as depreciation of facilities.
a. Labour cost
At the end of year 2000 total staff involved in operation of DOT was 210 (including BISP, SOCAR and
Caspian TransCo personnel). The average overall cost of a terminal employee was about USD 130 per
month including salary, pension fund, social charges and vacation, whilst that of an engineer was USD 220
per month. As a whole it can be considered that the average unit cost is close to USD 160 per month, i.e.
USD 1920 per year. On this basis the total annual labour cost amounts to USD 400,000.
In the future this cost should vary, under the impact of several factors: traffic increase, improvement in
productivity and rise of salaries.
Impact of traffic increase
Part of the employees are involved in administrative tasks or in activities which will not be altered by
variations of traffic. It has been assumed that only one third of the number of employees should increase with
the traffic. In 2000 it is considered that 140 people are a fixed number, not depending on the traffic level, and
70 are a variable number - with a productivity of 50,000 t/year per employee -. The latter workforce is likely to
vary together with the traffic level.
Impact of improvement in productivity
Rehabilitation of the terminal should entail improved productivity, thanks to renewed equipment and to
computerised management of operations. It is assumed that productivity will increase at an average rate of
3% per year in the coming 20 years (in the "no investment" case productivity is supposed to remain stable),
which leads to the following results:
Productivity (tonnes/year):
Year 2000
50,000
Staff
Year 2005
58,000
Year 2010
67,200
Year 2015
77,900
Year 2020
90,300
Year 2000
Year 2005
Year 2010
Year 2020
Traffic for the "no investment" case (Mt/year)
3.5
Staff in the "no investment" case
210
220
220
220
High traffic hypothesis (Mt/year)
3.5
12
17
Variable staff
70
120
180
190
Fixed staff
140
140
140
140
Staff in the high traffic hypothesis
210
260
320
330
Low traffic hypothesis (Mt/year)
3.5
Variable staff
70
70
90
90
Fixed staff
140
140
140
140
Staff in the low traffic hypothesis
210
210
230
230
________________________________________________________________________
20
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Impact of rise of salaries

On the basis of a yearly increase of 2% the annual cost of an employee will vary as follows:
!
Year 2000: USD 1920
Year 2005: USD 2120
Year 2010: USD 2340
Year 2015: USD 2580
Year 2020: USD 2850
b. Maintenance costs
Annual maintenance costs can be estimated as ratios of investment costs, and following ratios have been
applied to planned investments:
!
0.5% for the breakwater;
0.2% for the other infrastructure items;
5% for the superstructures and the other equipment.
As far as existing facilities are concerned, a yearly lump sum of 1 million USD has been taken into account.
c. Energy consumption costs
From the Inogate Ref. 1 report the cost of energy spent to unload a tanker and to pump its oil into storage
tanks is around USD 0.12 per tonne of oil.
d. Overhead expenses
Part of administrative and management costs of BISP, SOCAR and Caspian TransCo is to be incorporated
into the terminal operating expenses. For this purpose DOT turnover has been considered as the key
parameter, it has been multiplied by 0.15 to compute global overhead expenses.
e. Financial charges
Each time it is assumed that a loan will be needed, following standard conditions are applied: 4-year grace
delay, 10-year repayment period and 8% financial charges (interest rate plus commitment fees plus fixed
fees).
f. Depreciation of facilities
It has be considered that rehabilitation works will be amortised within 20 years. No depreciation is accounted
for existing facilities.
________________________________________________________________________
21
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________
7.4
Financial results
Details of financial computations are in the attached Annex 3, from page 2 through page 8. They are
summarised in the table below.
Discounted
cash-flow
at 10%
(million USD)
Internal Rate of
Return
(%)
Maximum need in
cash-flow
(million USD)
23.5
0
0
11.55
0
0.45
0
34.2
56.9
37.0
14.6
25.4
19.0
8.2 (in 2006)

4.9 (in 2002)
0
0
0
0.4
0
0.03
0
24.5
25.3
24.6
11.2
12.2
11.3
0.3 (in 2005)

0
0
Hypothesis
Table in
Annex 3
Loan
(million
USD)
No investment
REF
High traffic
High traffic
High traffic
HH1
HH2
HH3
Low traffic
Low traffic
Low traffic
LH1
LH2
LH3
Tariff Rise
(USD/t)
Note: gross operating profits are clearly positive in all cases, even in the "no investment" hypothesis.
Comments:
!
In the "no investment" case cash-flows are always positive (average USD 2.4 million per year),
discounted cash-flow being USD million 23.5. DOT is globally quite profitable.
In the two other cases cash-flows are sometimes negative at the beginning of the time period; this is the
reason why additional tests have been carried out, firstly with increased tariffs, then with loans.
In the "high traffic" hypothesis a significant rise of tariff (USD 0.45 per tonne of oil) is not sufficient to
cancel the need in cash-flow. A USD 11.55 million loan can solve the problem.
In the "low traffic" hypothesis a very slight increase of tariff (USD 0.03 per tonne of oil) cancels the
negative cash-flows. The same result can be obtained with a very limited loan (USD 400,000).
Internal Rates of Return are satisfactory in all cases, although a bit on the edge in the "low traffic"
hypothesis. Investments are profitable.
Enclosures: Annex 1 to Annex 4
________________________________________________________________________
22
Annex 1
Abbreviations & Acronyms, References and Staff List
Abbreviations and Acronyms
AIOC
BISP
BSL
CD
CPC
CSC
DOT
dwt
EBRD
IMDG
IMO
Inogate
km
kV
m
MARPOL
MEP
Mt
RTC
SOCAR
t
Traceca
USD
V
WWTP
Azerbaijan International Oil Corporation

Baku International Sea Port
Baltic Sea Level
Chart Datum
Caspian Pipeline Consortium (from western Kazakhstan to Novorossiysk)
Caspian Shipping Company
Dubendi Oil Terminal
dead weight tonnage
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
International Maritime Dangerous Goods Code
International Maritime Organisation
Interstate Oil and Gas Transmission to Europe (a European Commission programme)
kilometre
kilo Volts
metre
International Convention for Prevention of Marine Pollution
Main Export Pipeline (from Baku to Ceyhan)
Million tonnes
Rail Tank Car
State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic
metric tonne
Transport Corridor Europe-Caucasus-Asia
United States dollar
Volt
Waste Water Treatment Plant
References
1. Trans-Caucasian Multi-Modal Oil Transport System (Inogate 97.04, January 2000)

2. Complementary Feasibility Studies for Oil and Gas Transport from the Caspian Sea Region (Inogate 97.01)
3. Hydrocarbon Potential Assessment (Inogate 97.02)
4. Priority Emergency Investment in Oil and Gas Infrastructures (Inogate 97.03)
5. Feasibility Study for Oil and Gas Pipe-Lines across the Caspian Sea (Inogate 96.01)
6. Black Sea Oil Investment (Lloyds Shipping Economist, April 2000)
7. Restituer le potentiel de la mer Caspienne (Ptrole et Gaz Informations, April 2000)
8. The Caspian Sea: legal status and international security (Umirserik Kasenov)
9. Lexploitation des hydrocarbures de la mer Caspienne (Ptrole et Techniques, February 2000)
10. EIA Caspian Sea Region Report (Energy Information Administration, December 1998)
11. Caucase, le grand jeu ptrolier (Courrier International, October 1999)
12. Seminar: Les enjeux rgionaux de la mer Caspienne (Centre Franais du Commerce Extrieur, September 1999)
13. Caucase, les grandes manuvres russes (LExpress, November 1999)
Staff list
1. BENEFICIARIES & COUNTERPARTS

Ministry of Economics of Azerbaijan
Mr. Ikram Sadikov, Head of Transport Department
Mr. Hussein Gubadov, Head of Fuel and Energy Department
Baku International Sea Trade Port
Mr. Soltan Kazimov, Chief Engineer
Mr. Rafail Mirgulamov, Commercial Manager
Aktau Commercial Sea Port
Mr. Abylgazin, General Director
Mr. Glock, Deputy General Director
Turkmen Maritime Lines
Mr. Bekmyrat Gurbanmuradov, General Director
Mr. Murad Atayev, Deputy General Director
2. TACIS
Co-ordinators
Mr. Marc Graille, Tbilisi
Mr. Erzhan Zhumali, Astana
Mr. Emilio Valli, Astana
Mr. Boris Smolin, Baku
Mr. Mahir Kazimov, Baku
Mr. Mukhamet Gulychev, Ashgabad
Mr. Michael Wilson, Ashgabad
Monitor
Mr. Pieter Melissen, Tashkent
3. CONSULTANT & SUB-CONSULTANTS

BCEOM
Mr. Andr Merrien, Port Engineer

Mr. Robert Gould, Environmentalist
PORT OF MARSEILLES AUTHORITY
Mr. Jean-Michel Bocognano, Port Engineer

Mr. Patrick Durel, Port Economist
Mr. Christian Montfort, Oil Traffic Expert
Mr. Marcel Immel, Oil Superstructure Expert
Mr. Michel Peronnet, Oil Process Expert
CASPMORNIIPROEKT, BAKU
Mrs. Tamilla Bagirova, Director

Mr. Fazil Gahramanov, Chief Engineer
AZQIPRONEFTECHIM, BAKU
Mr. Valeriy Aleksandrov, Chief Engineer
4. OTHER STAFF MET
EBRD
Mr. Christopher Ousey, London

Mrs. Lala Gouliyeva, Baku
Mr. Rufat Imamverdiyev, Baku
Mr. Kanat Aubakirov, Almaty
Mr. Batyr Hudaynazarov, Ashgabad
Kaztransoil
Mr. Kairgeldi Kabyldin, Astana
Kazakh Petroleum Association
Mr. Edward Verona, Almaty
Investconsulting
Mr. Kadyr Baikenov, Almaty
SOCAR
Mr. Gahraman Narimanogly, Baku
SOCAR
Mr. Vagif Abbasov, Baku
AIOC
Mr. Roger Davis, Baku
AIOC
Mr. Gary Reichow, Baku
Azerneftyag
Mr. Adil Ragimov, Baku
Caspian Shipping Company
Mr. Elshad Khalykov, Baku
Azerbaijan State Railways
Mr. Musa Panahov, Baku
Caspian TransCo Inc.
Mr. Nazih Elbeyli, Baku
Mr. Bekir Vural, Baku
Mr. Aydin Saral, Baku
Mr. Ardic Durdu, Baku
Chevron
Mr. Haver Kambaizadeh, Baku
BP Amoco
Mr. Falk Mamedov, Baku
Elf Petroleum
Mr. Jean-Franois Daganaud, Baku
Total Oil
Mr. Patrick Lantigner, Baku
Entrepose Construction Company
Mr. Franck Le Baron, Baku
Bouygues Offshore Construction Company
Mr. Olivier Clausin, Baku
Annex 2
Photographs of Dubendi Oil Terminal (23)
fig-9.jpg (832x532x16M jpeg)
Annex 3
Financial Tables (8 sheets)
TABLE REF : situation of reference (no investment, traffic limited to 4 Mt per year)
DUBENDI OIL TERMINAL
PROJECTED PROFIT & LOSS STATEMENT AND CASH-FLOW

UNIT
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
TRAFFIC FORECAST : SITUATION OF REFERENCE

TOTAL TONNAGE
1000 t
NUMBER OF CALLS
unit
STAFF
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
667
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
220
PROJECTED PROFIT AND LOSS STATEMENT

OPERATING REVENUES
Port dues on vessels
Handling of oil (ship->tank)
Storage of oil (tank->outside)
Additionnal revenue
unit
$/call
$/Ton
$/Ton
$/Ton
Tariff
1000
0,60
0,90
Base
Rate
TOTAL REVENUES
OPERATING EXPENSES
Salaries
Maintenance:
Old facilities
New facilities infrastructures
New facilities superstructures
Energy consumption
Overheads
Financial charges
Former Amortization
New Amortization
lump sum
5%
0
0,12
15%
$/Ton
Op. Rev
in 1000 $
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
422
433
444
455
466
476
486
495
505
515
526
537
548
560
571
582
593
605
616
627
627
627
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
1000
480
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
480
1000
0
obsolete
0
TOTAL EXPENSES
2902
2913
2924
2935
2946
2956
2966
2975
2985
2995
3006
3017
3028
3040
3051
3062
3073
3085
3096
3107
3107
3107
GROSS OPERATING PROFIT
3764
3753
3742
3731
3720
3711
3701
3691
3682
3672
3661
3649
3638
3627
3616
3605
3593
3582
3571
3560
3560
3560
PROJECTED CASH-FLOW
INCOMES
Gross operating profit
Amortization
Grants
Loan
in 1000 $
3764
0
3753
0
3742
0
3731
0
3720
0
3711
0
3701
0
3691
0
3682
0
3672
0
3661
0
3649
0
3638
0
3627
0
3616
0
3605
0
3593
0
3582
0
3571
0
3560
0
3560
0
3560
0
3764
3753
3742
3731
3720
3711
3701
3691
3682
3672
3661
3649
3638
3627
3616
3605
3593
3582
3571
3560
3560
3560
1280
1276
1272
0
1269
0
1265
0
1262
0
1258
0
1255
0
1252
0
1248
0
1245
0
1241
0
1237
0
1233
0
1229
0
1226
0
1222
0
1218
0
1214
0
1210
0
1210
0
1210
0
TOTAL OUTCOMES
1280
1276
1272
1269
1265
1262
1258
1255
1252
1248
1245
1241
1237
1233
1229
1226
1222
1218
1214
1210
1210
1210
CASH FLOW
Cumulative cash-flow
2484
2484
2477
4962
2470
7431
2463
9894
2455
12349
2449
14798
2443
17241
2436
19677
2430
22107
2423
24531
2416
26947
2409
29355
2401
31756
2394
34150
2386
36537
2379
38916
2372
41287
2364
43651
2357
46008
2349
48358
2349
50707
2349
53056
2484
2252
2041
1850
1677
1521
1379
1250
1134
1028
931
844
765
693
628
570
516
468
424
384
349
317
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL INCOMES
OUTCOMES
Taxes on profit
Foreign loan refunding
Investments
Annual cash flow discounted
Gross prof.
34%
10%
1,10
Total cash flow discounted :
FOREIGN LOAN CHARGES

Loan
Reimbursement
Remaining
Interest
23506
IN 1000 $
0
-2-
TABLE HH 1 : high traffic hypothesis, no increase in tariff, no loan


UNIT
2001
1000 t
4000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
TRAFFIC FORECAST : HIGH HYPOTHESIS

TOTAL TONNAGE
NUMBER OF CALLS
unit
STAFF
4750
5500
6250
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17000
17000
667
792
917
1042
1167
1333
1500
1667
1833
2000
2083
2167
2250
2333
2417
2500
2583
2667
2750
2833
2833
2833
220
230
240
251
261
272
284
295
307
319
320
321
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
328
328

OPERATING REVENUES
Additionnal revenue
Unit
$/call
$/Ton
$/Ton
$/Ton
tariff
1000,00
0,60
0,90
0,00
Base
Rate
TOTAL REVENUES
OPERATING EXPENSES
Salaries
Maintenance:
Old facilities
Energy consumption
Overheads
Financial charges
Former Amortization
New Amortization
lump sum
Op. Rev
0,50%
5,0%
0,120
15%
in 1000 $
667
2400
3600
0
792
2850
4275
0
917
3300
4950
0
1042
3750
5625
0
1167
4200
6300
0
1333
4800
7200
0
1500
5400
8100
0
1667
6000
9000
0
1833
6600
9900
0
2000
7200
10800
0
2083
7500
11250
0
2167
7800
11700
0
2250
8100
12150
0
2333
8400
12600
0
2417
8700
13050
0
2500
9000
13500
0
2583
9300
13950
0
2667
9600
14400
0
2750
9900
14850
0
2833
10200
15300
0
2833
10200
15300
0
2833
10200
15300
0
6667
7917
9167
10417
11667
13333
15000
16667
18333
20000
20833
21667
22500
23333
24167
25000
25833
26667
27500
28333
28333
28333
422
455
488
520
553
591
630
668
707
745
764
783
802
821
841
860
879
898
917
936
936
936
1000
1000
480
1000
0
570
1188
0
1000
37
270
660
1375
0
1000
37
270
750
1563
0
1000
37
270
840
1750
0
1000
56
573
960
2000
0
1000
76
875
1080
2250
0
1000
76
875
1200
2500
0
1000
76
875
1320
2750
0
1000
83
1168
1440
3000
0
1000
90
1460
1500
3125
0
1000
90
1460
1560
3250
0
1000
90
1460
1620
3375
0
1000
90
1460
1680
3500
0
1000
90
1460
1740
3625
0
1000
90
1460
1800
3750
0
1000
90
1460
1860
3875
0
1000
90
1460
1920
4000
0
1000
90
1460
1980
4125
0
1000
90
1460
2040
4250
0
1000
90
1460
2040
4250
0
1000
90
1460
2040
4250
0
635
635
635
1133
1630
1630
1630
1995
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
obsolete
5%
TOTAL EXPENSES
2902
3212
4464
4774
5084
6312
7540
7949
8357
9431
10299
10503
10707
10911
11116
11320
11524
11728
11932
12136
12136
12136
3764
4704
4703
5643
6583
7021
7460
8718
9976
10569
10534
11163
11793
12422
13051
13680
14310
14939
15568
16198
16198
16198
PROJECTED CASH-FLOW
INCOMES
Amortization
Grants
Loan
5%
TOTAL INCOMES
OUTCOMES
Taxes on profit
Investments-infra
Investments-super+equipment
Gross prof.
34%
TOTAL OUTCOMES
ANNUAL CASH FLOW
10%
34183
Situation of reference
ANNUAL CASH FLOW REF
Cumulative cash-flow ref
DIFFERENTIAL :
ANNUAL CASH FLOW DIF
10%
Total cash flow discounted
10%

Loan
Reimbursement
Remaining
Interest
IN 1000 $
1,10
in 1000 $
3764
0
4704
0
4703
635
5643
635
6583
635
7021
1133
7460
1630
8718
1630
9976
1630
10569
1995
10534
2360
11163
2360
11793
2360
12422
2360
13051
2360
13680
2360
14310
2360
14939
2360
15568
2360
16198
2360
16198
2360
16198
2360
3764
4704
5338
6278
7218
8154
9090
10348
11606
12564
12894
13523
14153
14782
15411
16040
16670
17299
17928
18558
18558
18558
1280
1599
1599
0
1918
0
2387
0
3900
6050
2964
0
3392
0
1450
5850
3594
0
1450
5850
3582
0
3795
0
4009
0
4223
0
4437
0
4651
0
4865
0
5079
0
5293
0
5507
0
5507
0
5507
0
3650
2700
2238
0
3900
6050
2536
0
3650
2700
7630
7949
1599
1918
12188
12337
2536
2964
10692
10894
3582
3795
4009
4223
4437
4651
4865
5079
5293
5507
5507
5507
-3866
-3866
-3245
-7111
3739
-3372
4359
987
-4971
-3984
-4184
-8167
6553
-1614
7384
5770
914
6684
1671
8355
9312
17667
9728
27395
10143
37538
10558
48096
10974
59070
11389
70459
11804
82264
12220
94484
12635
107119
13051
120169
13051
133220
13051
146270
-3866
-2950
3090
3275
-3395
-2598
3699
3789
426
709
3590
3410
3232
3058
2890
2726
2569
2418
2273
2134
1940
1764
2484
2484
2477
4962
2470
7431
2463
9894
2455
12349
2449
14798
2443
17241
2436
19677
2430
22107
2423
24531
2416
26947
2409
29355
2401
31756
2394
34150
2386
36537
2379
38916
2372
41287
2364
43651
2357
46008
2349
48358
2349
50707
2349
53056
-6350
-5722
1269
1896
-7426
-6633
4111
4948
-1516
-753
6896
7319
7742
8165
8587
9010
9433
9856
10278
10701
10701
10701
-6350
-5202
1049
1425
-5072
-4118
2320
2539
-707
-319
2659
2565
2467
2365
2261
2157
2053
1950
1849
1750
1591
1446
IRR
14,6%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10676
Rate of return :
0
8,0%
0
0
0
0
-3-
TABLE HH 2 : high traffic hypothesis, increased tariff (+ USD 0.45 per tonne), no loan

UNIT
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

TOTAL TONNAGE
NUMBER OF CALLS
1000 t
4000
4750
5500
6250
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17000
17000
unit
667
792
917
1042
1167
1333
1500
1667
1833
2000
2083
2167
2250
2333
2417
2500
2583
2667
2750
2833
2833
2833
220
230
240
251
261
272
284
295
307
319
320
321
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
328
328
STAFF

OPERATING REVENUES
Additionnal revenue
Unit
$/call
$/Ton
$/Ton
$/Ton
tariff
1000,00
0,60
0,90
0,45
Base
Rate
TOTAL REVENUES
OPERATING EXPENSES
Salaries
Maintenance:
Old facilities
Energy consumption
Overheads
Financial charges
Former Amortization
New Amortization
in 1000 $
667
2400
3600
1800
792
2850
4275
2138
917
3300
4950
2475
1042
3750
5625
2813
1167
4200
6300
3150
1333
4800
7200
3600
1500
5400
8100
4050
1667
6000
9000
4500
1833
6600
9900
4950
2000
7200
10800
5400
2083
7500
11250
5625
2167
7800
11700
5850
2250
8100
12150
6075
2333
8400
12600
6300
2417
8700
13050
6525
2500
9000
13500
6750
2583
9300
13950
6975
2667
9600
14400
7200
2750
9900
14850
7425
2833
10200
15300
7650
2833
10200
15300
7650
2833
10200
15300
7650
8467
10054
11642
13229
14817
16933
19050
21167
23283
25400
26458
27517
28575
29633
30692
31750
32808
33867
34925
35983
35983
35983
422
455
488
520
553
591
630
668
707
745
764
783
802
821
841
860
879
898
917
936
936
936
1000
1000
480
1270
0
570
1508
0
1000
37
270
660
1746
0
1000
37
270
750
1984
0
1000
37
270
840
2223
0
1000
56
573
960
2540
0
1000
76
875
1080
2858
0
1000
76
875
1200
3175
0
1000
76
875
1320
3493
0
1000
83
1168
1440
3810
0
1000
90
1460
1500
3969
0
1000
90
1460
1560
4128
0
1000
90
1460
1620
4286
0
1000
90
1460
1680
4445
0
1000
90
1460
1740
4604
0
1000
90
1460
1800
4763
0
1000
90
1460
1860
4921
0
1000
90
1460
1920
5080
0
1000
90
1460
1980
5239
0
1000
90
1460
2040
5398
0
1000
90
1460
2040
5398
0
1000
90
1460
2040
5398
0
635
635
635
1133
1630
1630
1630
1995
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
TOTAL EXPENSES
3172
3533
4835
5196
5557
6852
8148
8624
9100
10241
11143
11381
11619
11856
12094
12332
12570
12808
13045
13283
13283
13283
5294
6521
6806
8033
9260
10081
10902
12543
14183
15159
15315
16136
16956
17777
18597
19418
20239
21059
21880
22700
22700
22700
lump sum
Op. Rev
0,50%
5,0%
0,120
15%
obsolete
5%
PROJECTED CASH-FLOW
INCOMES
Amortization
Grants
Loan
5%
TOTAL INCOMES
OUTCOMES
Taxes on profit
Investments-infra
Gross prof.
34%
TOTAL OUTCOMES
ANNUAL CASH FLOW
10%
56901
DIFFERENTIAL :
10%
10%

Loan
Reimbursement
Remaining
Interest
IN 1000 $
in 1000 $
5294
0
6521
0
6806
635
8033
635
9260
635
10081
1133
10902
1630
12543
1630
14183
1630
15159
1995
15315
2360
16136
2360
16956
2360
17777
2360
18597
2360
19418
2360
20239
2360
21059
2360
21880
2360
22700
2360
22700
2360
22700
2360
5294
6521
7441
8668
9895
11214
12532
14173
15813
17154
17675
18496
19316
20137
20957
21778
22599
23419
24240
25060
25060
25060
1800
2217
2314
0
2731
0
3428
0
3900
6050
4265
0
4822
0
1450
5850
5154
0
1450
5850
5207
0
5486
0
5765
0
6044
0
6323
0
6602
0
6881
0
7160
0
7439
0
7718
0
7718
0
7718
0
3650
2700
3148
0
3900
6050
3707
0
3650
2700
8150
8567
2314
2731
13098
13378
3707
4265
12122
12454
5207
5486
5765
6044
6323
6602
6881
7160
7439
7718
7718
7718
-2856
-2856
-2046
-4902
5127
225
5937
6162
-3203
2959
-2164
795
8825
9620
9908
19529
3691
23220
4700
27920
12468
40388
13010
53397
13551
66948
14093
81041
14634
95675
15176
110851
15717
126569
16259
142828
16801
159628
17342
176971
17342
194313
17342
211655
-2856
-1860
4237
4460
-2188
-1344
4982
5085
1722
1993
4807
4560
4318
4082
3854
3633
3421
3217
3022
2836
2578
2343
2484
2484
2477
4962
2470
7431
2463
9894
2455
12349
2449
14798
2443
17241
2436
19677
2430
22107
2423
24531
2416
26947
2409
29355
2401
31756
2394
34150
2386
36537
2379
38916
2372
41287
2364
43651
2357
46008
2349
48358
2349
50707
2349
53056
-5340
-4523
2657
3474
-5659
-4613
6383
7472
1261
2277
10052
10601
11150
11699
12248
12797
13346
13895
14444
14993
14993
14993
-5340
-4112
2196
2610
-3865
-2864
3603
3834
588
966
3875
3716
3553
3389
3225
3063
2904
2749
2598
2451
2229
2026
IRR
25,4%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
33395
Rate of return :
0
8,0%
0
0
0
0
-4-
TABLE HH 3 : high traffic hypothesis, no tariff increase, loan (USD 11.55 million)

UNIT
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

TOTAL TONNAGE
NUMBER OF CALLS
1000 t
4000
4750
5500
6250
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
12500
13000
13500
14000
14500
15000
15500
16000
16500
17000
17000
17000
unit
667
792
917
1042
1167
1333
1500
1667
1833
2000
2083
2167
2250
2333
2417
2500
2583
2667
2750
2833
2833
2833
220
230
240
251
261
272
284
295
307
319
320
321
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
328
328
STAFF

OPERATING REVENUES
Additionnal revenue
Unit
$/call
$/Ton
$/Ton
$/Ton
tariff
1000,00
0,60
0,90
Base
Rate
TOTAL REVENUES
OPERATING EXPENSES
Salaries
Maintenance:
Old facilities
Energy consumption
Overheads
Financial charges
Former Amortization
New Amortization
in 1000 $
667
2400
3600
0
792
2850
4275
0
917
3300
4950
0
1042
3750
5625
0
1167
4200
6300
0
1333
4800
7200
0
1500
5400
8100
0
1667
6000
9000
0
1833
6600
9900
0
2000
7200
10800
0
2083
7500
11250
0
2167
7800
11700
0
2250
8100
12150
0
2333
8400
12600
0
2417
8700
13050
0
2500
9000
13500
0
2583
9300
13950
0
2667
9600
14400
0
2750
9900
14850
0
2833
10200
15300
0
2833
10200
15300
0
2833
10200
15300
0
6667
7917
9167
10417
11667
13333
15000
16667
18333
20000
20833
21667
22500
23333
24167
25000
25833
26667
27500
28333
28333
28333
422
455
488
520
553
591
630
668
707
745
764
783
802
821
841
860
879
898
917
936
936
936
1000
1000
480
1000
0
570
1188
320
1000
37
270
660
1375
612
1000
37
270
750
1563
612
1000
37
270
840
1750
612
1000
56
573
960
2000
924
1000
76
875
1080
2250
924
1000
76
875
1200
2500
863
1000
76
875
1320
2750
802
1000
83
1168
1440
3000
740
1000
90
1460
1500
3125
648
1000
90
1460
1560
3250
556
1000
90
1460
1620
3375
463
1000
90
1460
1680
3500
371
1000
90
1460
1740
3625
278
1000
90
1460
1800
3750
186
1000
90
1460
1860
3875
94
1000
90
1460
1920
4000
62
1000
90
1460
1980
4125
31
1000
90
1460
2040
4250
0
1000
90
1460
2040
4250
0
1000
90
1460
2040
4250
0
635
635
635
1133
1630
1630
1630
1995
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
2360
TOTAL EXPENSES
2902
3532
5076
5386
5696
7236
8464
8812
9159
10171
10947
11059
11171
11282
11394
11506
11617
11790
11963
12136
12136
12136
3764
4384
4091
5031
5971
6097
6536
7855
9174
9829
9886
10608
11329
12051
12773
13494
14216
14877
15537
16198
16198
16198
9886
2360
10608
2360
11329
2360
12051
2360
12773
2360
13494
2360
14216
2360
14877
2360
15537
2360
16198
2360
16198
2360
16198
2360
lump sum
Op. Rev
0,50%
5,0%
0,120
15%
obsolete
5%
PROJECTED CASH-FLOW
INCOMES
Amortization
Grants
Loan
5%
TOTAL INCOMES
OUTCOMES
Taxes on profit
Investments-infra
Gross prof.
34%
TOTAL OUTCOMES
ANNUAL CASH FLOW
10%
36989
DIFFERENTIAL :
10%
10%

Loan
Reimbursement
Remaining
Interest
IN 1000 $
11 550
11 550
8,0%
3764
0
4384
0
4091
635
5031
635
5971
635
6097
1133
in 1000 $
6536
1630
7855
1630
9174
1630
9829
1995
4000
3650
3900
7764
8034
4726
5666
10506
7230
8166
9485
10804
11824
12246
12968
13689
14411
15133
15854
16576
17237
17897
18558
18558
18558
1391
0
1710
0
2030
0
3900
6050
2073
0
3900
6050
2222
765
2671
765
3119
765
1450
5850
3342
1155
1450
5850
3361
1155
3607
1155
3852
1155
4097
1155
4343
1155
4588
1155
4834
390
5058
390
5283
390
5507
0
5507
0
5507
0
1280
1491
3650
2700
3650
2700
7630
7841
1391
1710
11980
12023
2987
3436
11184
11797
4516
4762
5007
5252
5498
5743
5224
5448
5673
5507
5507
5507
134
134
194
328
3335
3663
3955
7618
-1474
6144
-4793
1350
5179
6529
6049
12578
-380
12198
27
12225
7730
19955
8206
28161
8682
36843
9159
46002
9635
55637
10111
65748
11353
77101
11789
88890
12225
101114
13051
114165
13051
127215
13051
140266
134
176
2756
2972
-1007
-2976
2923
3104
-177
11
2980
2876
2766
2653
2537
2421
2471
2332
2199
2134
1940
1764
2484
2484
2477
4962
2470
7431
2463
9894
2455
12349
2449
14798
2443
17241
2436
19677
2430
22107
2423
24531
2416
26947
2409
29355
2401
31756
2394
34150
2386
36537
2379
38916
2372
41287
2364
43651
2357
46008
2349
48358
2349
50707
2349
53056
-2350
-2284
865
1493
-3930
-7242
2736
3613
-2810
-2396
5314
5797
6281
6765
7249
7732
8981
9424
9868
10701
10701
10701
-2350
-2076
715
1121
-2684
-4497
1544
1854
-1311
-1016
2049
2032
2001
1960
1909
1851
1955
1865
1775
1750
1591
1446
IRR
19,0%
7650
612
11550
612
11550
924
765
10785
924
765
10020
863
765
9255
802
1155
8100
740
1155
6945
648
1155
5790
556
1155
4635
463
1155
3480
371
1155
2325
278
1155
1170
186
390
780
94
390
390
62
390
0
31
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13482
Rate of return :
4000
3650
4000
7650
320
3900
7650
612
-5-
TABLE LH 1 : low traffic hypothesis, no increase in tariff, no loan


UNIT
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
TRAFFIC FORECAST : LOW HYPOTHESIS

TOTAL TONNAGE
NUMBER OF CALLS
1000 t
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8000
8000
unit
667
667
667
667
667
733
800
867
933
1000
1033
1067
1100
1133
1167
1200
1233
1267
1300
1333
1333
1333
220
217
214
212
209
213
217
221
225
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
STAFF

OPERATING REVENUES
Additionnal revenue
Unit
$/call
$/Ton
$/Ton
$/Ton
tariff
1000,00
0,60
0,90
Base
Rate
TOTAL REVENUES
OPERATING EXPENSES
Salaries
Maintenance:
Old facilities
Energy consumption
Overheads
Financial charges
Former Amortization
New Amortization
in 1000 $
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
733
2640
3960
0
800
2880
4320
0
867
3120
4680
0
933
3360
5040
0
1000
3600
5400
0
1033
3720
5580
0
1067
3840
5760
0
1100
3960
5940
0
1133
4080
6120
0
1167
4200
6300
0
1200
4320
6480
0
1233
4440
6660
0
1267
4560
6840
0
1300
4680
7020
0
1333
4800
7200
0
1333
4800
7200
0
1333
4800
7200
0
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
7333
8000
8667
9333
10000
10333
10667
11000
11333
11667
12000
12333
12667
13000
13333
13333
13333
422
428
433
438
443
462
480
499
518
537
548
560
571
583
594
606
617
628
640
651
651
651
1000
1000
480
1000
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
18
135
480
1000
0
1000
37
270
528
1100
0
1000
37
270
576
1200
0
1000
37
270
624
1300
0
1000
37
270
672
1400
0
1000
37
270
720
1500
0
1000
37
270
744
1550
0
1000
37
270
768
1600
0
1000
37
270
792
1650
0
1000
37
270
816
1700
0
1000
37
270
840
1750
0
1000
37
270
864
1800
0
1000
37
270
888
1850
0
1000
37
270
912
1900
0
1000
37
270
936
1950
0
1000
37
270
960
2000
0
1000
37
270
960
2000
0
1000
37
270
960
2000
0
318
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
TOTAL EXPENSES
2902
2908
2913
2918
3394
4031
4198
4365
4531
4698
4784
4869
4955
5040
5126
5211
5297
5382
5467
5553
5553
5553
3764
3759
3754
3749
3273
3302
3802
4302
4802
5302
5550
5798
6045
6293
6541
6789
7037
7285
7533
7780
7780
7780
5550
635
5798
635
6045
635
6293
635
6541
635
6789
635
7037
635
7285
635
7533
635
7780
635
7780
635
7780
635
lump sum
Op. Rev
0,50%
5,0%
0,120
15%
obsolete
5%
PROJECTED CASH-FLOW
INCOMES
Amortization
Grants
Loan
3764
0
5%
TOTAL INCOMES
OUTCOMES
Taxes on profit
Investments-infra
Gross prof.
34%
3759
0
3754
0
3749
0
3273
318
3302
635
in 1000 $
3802
635
4302
635
4802
635
5302
635
3764
3759
3754
3749
3590
3937
4437
4937
5437
5937
6185
6433
6680
6928
7176
7424
7672
7920
8168
8415
8415
8415
1280
1278
1276
0
1275
0
3650
2700
1113
0
3650
2700
1123
0
1293
0
1463
0
1633
0
1803
0
1887
0
1971
0
2055
0
2140
0
2224
0
2308
0
2393
0
2477
0
2561
0
2645
0
2645
0
2645
0
TOTAL OUTCOMES
1280
1278
1276
7625
7463
1123
1293
1463
1633
1803
1887
1971
2055
2140
2224
2308
2393
2477
2561
2645
2645
2645
ANNUAL CASH FLOW

2484
2484
2481
4965
2478
7443
-3876
3567
-3872
-305
2814
2509
3144
5654
3474
9128
3804
12932
4134
17067
4298
21365
4461
25826
4625
30451
4789
35240
4952
40192
5116
45307
5279
50587
5443
56030
5606
61636
5770
67406
5770
73176
5770
78946
2484
2255
2048
-2912
-2645
1748
1775
1783
1775
1753
1657
1564
1474
1387
1304
1225
1149
1077
1008
943
858
780
2484
2484
2477
4962
2470
7431
2463
9894
2455
12349
2449
14798
2443
17241
2436
19677
2430
22107
2423
24531
2416
26947
2409
29355
2401
31756
2394
34150
2386
36537
2379
38916
2372
41287
2364
43651
2357
46008
2349
48358
2349
50707
2349
53056
10%
24489
DIFFERENTIAL :
10%
10%

Loan
Reimbursement
Remaining
Interest
IN 1000 $
-6338
-6328
365
702
1038
1375
1711
1882
2053
2224
2395
2566
2737
2908
3079
3250
3421
3421
3421
-4762
-4322
227
396
533
641
726
726
720
709
694
676
655
633
609
584
559
508
462
IRR
11,2%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
983
Rate of return :
0
8,0%
0
0
0
0
-6-
TABLE LH 2 : low traffic hypothesis, slight tariff increase (+ USD 0.03 per tonne), no loan

UNIT
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

TOTAL TONNAGE
NUMBER OF CALLS
1000 t
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8000
8000
unit
667
667
667
667
667
733
800
867
933
1000
1033
1067
1100
1133
1167
1200
1233
1267
1300
1333
1333
1333
220
217
214
212
209
213
217
221
225
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
STAFF

OPERATING REVENUES
Additionnal revenue
Unit
$/call
$/Ton
$/Ton
$/Ton
tariff
1000,00
0,60
0,90
0,03
Base
Rate
TOTAL REVENUES
OPERATING EXPENSES
Salaries
Maintenance:
Old facilities
Energy consumption
Overheads
Financial charges
Former Amortization
New Amortization
in 1000 $
667
2400
3600
120
667
2400
3600
120
667
2400
3600
120
667
2400
3600
120
667
2400
3600
120
733
2640
3960
132
800
2880
4320
144
867
3120
4680
156
933
3360
5040
168
1000
3600
5400
180
1033
3720
5580
186
1067
3840
5760
192
1100
3960
5940
198
1133
4080
6120
204
1167
4200
6300
210
1200
4320
6480
216
1233
4440
6660
222
1267
4560
6840
228
1300
4680
7020
234
1333
4800
7200
240
1333
4800
7200
240
1333
4800
7200
240
6787
6787
6787
6787
6787
7465
8144
8823
9501
10180
10519
10859
11198
11537
11877
12216
12555
12895
13234
13573
13573
13573
422
428
433
438
443
462
480
499
518
537
548
560
571
583
594
606
617
628
640
651
651
651
1000
1000
480
1018
0
480
1018
0
1000
0
0
480
1018
0
1000
0
0
480
1018
0
1000
18
135
480
1018
0
1000
37
270
528
1120
0
1000
37
270
576
1222
0
1000
37
270
624
1323
0
1000
37
270
672
1425
0
1000
37
270
720
1527
0
1000
37
270
744
1578
0
1000
37
270
768
1629
0
1000
37
270
792
1680
0
1000
37
270
816
1731
0
1000
37
270
840
1782
0
1000
37
270
864
1832
0
1000
37
270
888
1883
0
1000
37
270
912
1934
0
1000
37
270
936
1985
0
1000
37
270
960
2036
0
1000
37
270
960
2036
0
1000
37
270
960
2036
0
318
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
TOTAL EXPENSES
2920
2926
2931
2936
3412
4051
4220
4388
4557
4725
4811
4898
4984
5071
5157
5243
5330
5416
5503
5589
5589
5589
3866
3861
3856
3851
3375
3414
3924
4435
4945
5455
5708
5961
6214
6467
6720
6973
7226
7478
7731
7984
7984
7984
5708
635
5961
635
6214
635
6467
635
6720
635
6973
635
7226
635
7478
635
7731
635
7984
635
7984
635
7984
635
lump sum
Op. Rev
0,50%
5,0%
0,120
15%
obsolete
5%
PROJECTED CASH-FLOW
INCOMES
Amortization
Grants
Loan
5%
3866
0
3861
0
3856
0
3851
0
3375
318
3414
635
in 1000 $
3924
635
4435
635
4945
635
5455
635
3866
3861
3856
3851
3692
4049
4559
5070
5580
6090
6343
6596
6849
7102
7355
7608
7861
8113
8366
8619
8619
8619
1315
1313
1311
0
1309
0
3650
2700
1147
0
3650
2700
1161
0
1334
0
1508
0
1681
0
1855
0
1941
0
2027
0
2113
0
2199
0
2285
0
2371
0
2457
0
2543
0
2629
0
2715
0
2715
0
2715
0
TOTAL OUTCOMES
1315
1313
1311
7659
7497
1161
1334
1508
1681
1855
1941
2027
2113
2199
2285
2371
2457
2543
2629
2715
2715
2715
ANNUAL CASH FLOW

2552
2552
2548
5100
2545
7645
-3808
3837
-3805
31
2888
2920
3225
6145
3562
9707
3899
13606
4235
17841
4402
22243
4569
26812
4736
31548
4903
36451
5070
41521
5237
46758
5404
52162
5571
57733
5738
63471
5905
69375
5905
75280
5905
81185
2552
2317
2103
-2861
-2599
1794
1821
1828
1819
1796
1697
1601
1509
1420
1335
1254
1176
1102
1032
965
878
798
2484
2484
2477
4962
2470
7431
2463
9894
2455
12349
2449
14798
2443
17241
2436
19677
2430
22107
2423
24531
2416
26947
2409
29355
2401
31756
2394
34150
2386
36537
2379
38916
2372
41287
2364
43651
2357
46008
2349
48358
2349
50707
2349
53056
TOTAL INCOMES
OUTCOMES
Taxes on profit
Investments-infra
Gross prof.
10%
34%
25336
DIFFERENTIAL :
10%
10%

Loan
Reimbursement
Remaining
Interest
IN 1000 $
67
71
75
-6271
-6260
439
783
1126
1469
1812
1986
2161
2335
2509
2684
2858
3032
3207
3381
3555
3555
3555
67
65
62
-4712
-4276
273
442
578
685
768
766
757
744
727
707
684
660
634
608
581
528
480
IRR
12,2%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1830
Rate of return :
0
8,0%
0
0
0
0
-7-
TABLE LH 3 : low traffic hypothesis, no increase in tariff, loan (USD 0.4 million)

UNIT
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022

TOTAL TONNAGE
NUMBER OF CALLS
1000 t
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4400
4800
5200
5600
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
7200
7400
7600
7800
8000
8000
8000
unit
667
667
667
667
667
733
800
867
933
1000
1033
1067
1100
1133
1167
1200
1233
1267
1300
1333
1333
1333
220
217
214
212
209
213
217
221
225
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
229
STAFF

OPERATING REVENUES
Additionnal revenue
Unit
$/call
$/Ton
$/Ton
$/Ton
tariff
1000,00
0,60
0,90
0,00
Base
Rate
TOTAL REVENUES
OPERATING EXPENSES
Salaries
Maintenance:
Old facilities
Energy consumption
Overheads
Financial charges
Former Amortization
New Amortization
in 1000 $
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
667
2400
3600
0
733
2640
3960
0
800
2880
4320
0
867
3120
4680
0
933
3360
5040
0
1000
3600
5400
0
1033
3720
5580
0
1067
3840
5760
0
1100
3960
5940
0
1133
4080
6120
0
1167
4200
6300
0
1200
4320
6480
0
1233
4440
6660
0
1267
4560
6840
0
1300
4680
7020
0
1333
4800
7200
0
1333
4800
7200
0
1333
4800
7200
0
6667
6667
6667
6667
6667
7333
8000
8667
9333
10000
10333
10667
11000
11333
11667
12000
12333
12667
13000
13333
13333
13333
422
428
433
438
443
462
480
499
518
537
548
560
571
583
594
606
617
628
640
651
651
651
1000
1000
480
1000
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
0
0
480
1000
0
1000
18
135
480
1000
0
1000
37
270
528
1100
32
1000
37
270
576
1200
32
1000
37
270
624
1300
32
1000
37
270
672
1400
32
1000
37
270
720
1500
32
1000
37
270
744
1550
29
1000
37
270
768
1600
26
1000
37
270
792
1650
22
1000
37
270
816
1700
19
1000
37
270
840
1750
16
1000
37
270
864
1800
13
1000
37
270
888
1850
10
1000
37
270
912
1900
6
1000
37
270
936
1950
3
1000
37
270
960
2000
0
1000
37
270
960
2000
0
1000
37
270
960
2000
0
318
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
635
TOTAL EXPENSES
2902
2908
2913
2918
3394
4063
4230
4397
4563
4730
4812
4895
4977
5059
5142
5224
5306
5388
5471
5553
5553
5553
3764
3759
3754
3749
3273
3270
3770
4270
4770
5270
5521
5772
6023
6274
6525
6776
7027
7278
7529
7780
7780
7780
5521
635
5772
635
6023
635
6274
635
6525
635
6776
635
7027
635
7278
635
7529
635
7780
635
7780
635
7780
635
lump sum
Op. Rev
0,50%
5,0%
0,120
15%
obsolete
5%
PROJECTED CASH-FLOW
INCOMES
Amortization
Grants
Loan
5%
TOTAL INCOMES
OUTCOMES
Taxes on profit
Investments-infra
Gross prof.
34%
3764
0
3759
0
3754
0
3749
0
3273
318
3270
635
in 1000 $
3770
635
4270
635
4770
635
5270
635
400
3764
3759
3754
3749
3990
3905
4405
4905
5405
5905
6156
6407
6658
6909
7160
7411
7662
7913
8164
8415
8415
8415
1280
1278
1276
0
1275
0
3650
2700
1113
0
3650
2700
1112
0
1282
0
1452
0
1622
0
1792
40
1877
40
1962
40
2048
40
2133
40
2219
40
2304
40
2389
40
2475
40
2560
40
2645
0
2645
0
2645
0
TOTAL OUTCOMES
1280
1278
1276
7625
7463
1112
1282
1452
1622
1832
1917
2002
2088
2173
2259
2344
2429
2515
2600
2645
2645
2645
ANNUAL CASH FLOW

2484
2484
2481
4965
2478
7443
-3876
3567
-3472
95
2793
2888
3123
6011
3453
9465
3783
13248
4073
17321
4239
21560
4405
25964
4570
30535
4736
35271
4902
40172
5067
45239
5233
50472
5399
55871
5564
61435
5770
67205
5770
72976
5770
78746
2484
2255
2048
-2912
-2372
1734
1763
1772
1765
1727
1634
1544
1456
1372
1291
1213
1139
1068
1001
943
858
780
2484
2484
2477
4962
2470
7431
2463
9894
2455
12349
2449
14798
2443
17241
2436
19677
2430
22107
2423
24531
2416
26947
2409
29355
2401
31756
2394
34150
2386
36537
2379
38916
2372
41287
2364
43651
2357
46008
2349
48358
2349
50707
2349
53056
10%
24564
DIFFERENTIAL :
10%
10%

Loan
Reimbursement
Remaining
Interest
IN 1000 $
400
400
-6338
-5928
344
681
1017
1353
1650
1823
1996
2169
2342
2515
2688
2861
3034
3208
3421
3421
3421
-4762
-4049
214
384
522
631
700
703
700
691
678
662
644
623
600
577
559
508
462
IRR
11,3%
0
0
400
0
400
32
400
32
400
32
400
32
40
360
32
40
320
29
40
280
26
40
240
22
40
200
19
40
160
16
40
120
13
40
80
10
40
40
6
40
0
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
1058
Rate of return :
400
0
8,0%
0
0
0
0
-8-
Dubendi Oil Terminal Rehabilitation - Investment cost estimates

Costs estimates in thousands USD
Short term
Medium term
Long term
Total 3 terms
A. Infrastructures
A1. Detailed design, tender docs & works supervision
470
A2. Dredging works

Dredging of navigation channel
Dredging of port basin
Sub-total A2
A3. Breakwater works
Rehabilitation of the root section
Rehabilitation of the trunk section
Rehabilitation of the head section
490
190
1150
700
500
1 200
400
400
700
900
1 600
1 500
2 500
Sub-total A3
4 000
A4. Berth works

Rehabilitation of pier n1
Rehabilitation of port-vessels berth
1 500
2 500
3 000
7 000
3 000
3 000
1 600
2 000
1 200
2 300
Sub-total A4
2 800
800
2 800
300
2 300
7 270
7 790
2 890
17 950
250
700
750
1 700
50
10
30
40
130
30
20
30
20
20
30
80
70
100
50
90
40
280
A5. Shore protections inside the port basin

Total A
1 600
2 000
1 200
2 300
800
7 900
300
B. Superstructures
B1. Detailed design, tender docs & works supervision
B2. Road works
Road on top of the breakwater
Roads in lower tank-farm area
Roads in upper tank-farm area
Access road to pier n3
Sub-total B2
B3. Lower tank-farm
Block n13a
Block n13b
Block n14
Extension of block 14
30
1 000
1 500
20
Sub-total B3
B4. Upper tank-farm

Block n4
Block n6
Block n7
Block n8
Block n9
Block n11
Block n12
1 500
50
1 500
3 000
100
2 000
2 500
2 000
100
2 000
2 000
2 000
100
2 000
Sub-total B4
300
6 000
1 000
7 000
Sub-total B5
B6. Rehabilitation of the Waste Water Treatment Plant
150
500
50
700
300
50
500
250
800
50
500
250
800
B5. Pipes and pumps

Pipes & pumps in the berthing areas
Pipes & pumps in the lower tank-farm
Pipes & pumps in the upper tank-farm
1 030
1 500
1 520
1 500
5 550
2 100
2 000
2 100
2 000
2 000
2 100
1 000
13 300
250
1 500
550
2300
300
B7. Electricity networks
2 000
500
500
3 000
Total B
3 730
11 080
11 620
26 430
C1. Detailed design, tender docs & works supervision
110
70
185
C2. Refurbishment and equipment of buildings

In lower area
In upper area
Sub-total C2
C3. Boiler unit in upper storage area
80
100
180
220
150
180
330
C. Other equipment
C4. Supply of environmental protection equipment

C5. Supply & installation of safety equipment
Total C
Total A + B + C
-1-
230
280
510
220
200
150
1 000
500
100
450
1 710
1 050
105
2 865
12 710
19 920
14 615
47 245
1 500
Annex 4
Maps and Drawings
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Traceca map
Global "oil map"
Dubendi Channel and port layout
Dubendi Marine and land facilities
Piers n1 & n2 Oil transfer scheme
Pier n3 Oil transfer scheme
Existing power supply scheme
Directory scheme for power supply
Piping and power supply diagrams
Short-term flow diagram
Medium-term flow diagram
Long-term flow diagram
Breakwater head
Breakwater root and trunk
Pier cross-section
Pier longitudinal section
Port-vessel berth

24 XH 8

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Traceca Corridor

Traffic and Feasibility Studies - TNREG 9803

Feasibility study for

Report Cover Page

: Traceca Corridor - Traffic and Feasibility Studies

: Transport of crude oil and oil products on the Caspian Sea

: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

Bceom Socit Franaise d'Ingnierie

Mr. Talgat Abylgazin

9 Sultanov Street, Appt. 67

Port of Marseilles Authority, France

February to April 2001

Andr Merrien and Jean-Michel Bocognano

1. Project synopsis for module E ......................................................................................................................4

Short-term rehabilitation plan..............................................................................................................14

6. Ownership and operation schemes ...........................................................................................................17

Abbreviations & Acronyms, References and Staff List

Photographs of Dubendi Oil Terminal

Maps and drawings

1. Project synopsis for module E

: Traceca Corridor - Traffic and Feasibility Studies

: Transport of crude oil and oil products on the Caspian Sea

: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan

A traffic forecast for oil and oil products

A detailed traffic forecast

Ministries of Transport, Oil terminal operators, Tanker operators

Project start date:

15 March 2000 (Module E)

Expected completion date:

2. Summary and conclusions

Figures in million tonnes of oil through Dubendi Oil Terminal

in 2005 in 2010 in 2020

If not (cross-Caspian pipeline, or any other option)

loan should be around 12 million USD .

3. Oil flow projections

Exports from Kazakhstan

via the Caspian Sea and the MEP

Exports from Azerbaijan

Figures in million tonnes of oil through Dubendi Oil Terminal

in 2005 in 2010 in 2020

If not (cross-Caspian pipeline, or any other option)

4. Current condition of Dubendi Oil Terminal

3 type Kafur Mamedov tankers:

Mean load draught: 8.00 m

9 type Absheron tankers:

Mean load draught: 5.3 m

Mean load draught: 4.15 m

21 type G Shikhlinskiy tankers:

Rail-tank-car loading station

Waste Water Treatment Plant

Discharge of treated waste water to sea.

Oil pipe networks

operations are frequently delayed because of failures on vessel pumps.

4.10 Power stations and electricity networks

cable ways are not covered;

earthening devices don't look efficient;

most supporting poles are corroded and about to collapse.

4.11 Administrative buildings

4.12 Miscellaneous deficiencies

Oil spill response vessel

Rapid deployment boom system

Rope skimmer oil mop

Portable power supply