NCEA Level 3 Mathematics and Statistics 91586 (3.

14) page 1 of 6

SAMPLE ASSESSMENT SCHEDULE

Mathematics and Statistics 91586 (3.14): Apply probability distributions in solving problems
This assessment schedule has been updated (14 June 2013), along with the assessment task, to reflect the standard. Linear transformations of
continuous random variables have been removed from the curriculum and so are no longer in the standard.
Student work exemplars were completed before this update and have not been amended.
Assessment Criteria
Achievement

Achievement with Merit

Achievement with Excellence

Apply probability distributions in solving problems

involves:

Apply probability distributions, using relational thinking,

in solving problems involves:

Apply probability distributions, using extended

abstract thinking, in solving problems involves:

selecting and using methods

demonstrating knowledge of concepts and terms

selecting and carrying out a logical sequence of

steps

communicating using appropriate representations.

connecting different concepts or representations

identifying relevant concepts in context

demonstrating understanding of concepts

developing a chain of logical reasoning

and also relating findings to a context or communicating

thinking using appropriate statements.

devising a strategy to investigate or solve a

problem

and also, where appropriate, using contextual

knowledge to reflect on the answer.

Evidence Statement
One

Expected Coverage
Normal distribution, = 215, = 13.2

(a) (i)

P(X < 200) = 0.1279

Achievement

Merit

Probability correctly
calculated.

P(X > 220) = 0.3524

P(less than 200 g or 220 g and over) = 0.4803
Normal distribution, = 215, = 13.2
P(X < 220) = 0.64757
P(205 < X < 220) = 0.42322

(a) (ii)
P(over 205g/ under 220g) =
P(205 < X < 220) / P(X < 220) = 0.42322 / 0.64757
= 0.6536

Probability of guava
weight between 205 g
and 220 g calculated.

Conditional probability
correctly calculated.

Excellence

NCEA Level 3 Mathematics and Statistics 91586 (3.14) page 2 of 6

Using the normal distribution, with = 12.4 mins and = 3.0 mins
P(X < 10) = 0.192
P(10 < X < 15) = 0.767
P(X > 15) = 0.041
Time to
change flat
tyre (T)
Fee (F)
Probability

T < 10

10 < T < 15

T > 15

$35
0.212

$40
0.595

$60
0.193

Probability distribution
table (or equivalent
probability statements)
is developed for the
distribution of fees for
individual flat tyres.

E(F) = 35 x 0.212 + 40 x 0.595 + 60 x 0.193 = $42.80

E(F2) = 352 x 0.212 + 402 x 0.595 + 602 x 0.193 = 1906.5
SD(F) =
(b)

= $8.641

The expected total fees for 48 tyres = 48 x $42.80 = $2 054.40

The standard deviation of the total fees for 48 tyres =

x 8.641 = $59.87

(assuming independence of the times to change the flat tyres of each of the
48 tyres).
The expected total fees for 48 tyres per week is $2054.40, which is $445.60
below the centres expectations. When considering this difference of $445.60
in terms of the standard deviation of $59.87, the centres target is over 7
standard deviations above the expected total fees. Therefore, it is not
reasonable that the centre could generate fees of at least $2 500 from
Andrew changing 48 flat tyres per week.

Not Achieved

Achievement
Merit

No response; no relevant evidence.

N1

Candidate gives a partial solution to ONE part of the question.

N2

Candidate gives partial solutions to TWO parts of the question.

A3

Candidate gives ONE opportunity from the Achievement criteria.

A4

Candidate gives TWO opportunities from the Achievement criteria.

M5

Candidate gives ONE opportunity from the Merit criteria.

Correct calculation of
expected value and
standard deviation for F
OR
correct calculation of the
expected value for the
total fees for 48 flat tyres
and the use of the
expected value and
relevant justification to
determine whether the
centres target is
reasonable

The variation of the

total fees from Andrew
changing 48 tyres per
week is taken into
account when
determining whether
the centres target is
reasonable, by
calculating and
considering the
expected value and
the standard deviation
for the total fees from
Andrew changing 48
tyres per week

NCEA Level 3 Mathematics and Statistics 91586 (3.14) page 3 of 6

Excellence

M6

Candidate gives TWO opportunities from the Merit criteria.

E7

Candidate meets the Excellence criteria except for minor errors in calculation.

E8

Candidate meets the Excellence criteria.

Two

Expected Coverage
For 15-minute interval

(a)

E(X) = 0 x 0.3 + 1 x 0.35 + 2 x 0.2 + 3 x 0.15 = 1.2

Poisson distribution, = 2.4

Applying this distribution because:

(b) (i)

discrete (queue jumpers) within a continuous interval (time)

it cannot occur simultaneously (only one queue jumper at a time)

queue jumping is a random event with no pattern to it

for a small interval (eg half an hour) the mean number of occurrences
(queue jumpers) is proportional to the size of the interval.

Achievement

Merit

Excellence

Correct calculation of
expected number of
jumpers per 15-minute
interval.
Probability calculated
with identification of
probability distribution
and parameter.

Probability calculated
with identification of
probability distribution
and parameter
AND
justification of applying
this distribution linked to
the context.

Assumption is that each queue jumper is independent of other queue

jumpers.
P(X 1) = 0.3084
Poisson distribution
P(X = 0) = 0.9
e- = 0.9
(b) (ii)

= 0.105 (per 10 minutes)

= 0.316 (per 30 minutes)
P(X 1) = 0.959
The probability of there being more than one queue jumper per half an hour
is less than 5%, so this could be evidence of the store being queue-jump
free.

Not Achieved

No response; no relevant evidence.

N1

Candidate gives a partial solution to ONE part of the question.

Calculation of for the

four weeks.

Calculation probability
of no more than one
queue jumper per half
an hour using for the
four weeks, with
discussion of store
managers claim.

NCEA Level 3 Mathematics and Statistics 91586 (3.14) page 4 of 6

Achievement
Merit
Excellence

N2

Candidate gives partial solutions to TWO parts of the question.

A3

Candidate gives ONE opportunity from the Achievement criteria.

A4

Candidate gives TWO opportunities from the Achievement criteria.

M5

Candidate gives ONE opportunity from the Merit criteria.

M6

Candidate gives TWO opportunities from the Merit criteria.

E7

Candidate meets the Excellence criteria except for minor errors in calculation.

E8

Candidate meets the Excellence criteria.

Three

Expected Coverage
Binomial distribution
n = 4, p = 0.67
Applying this distribution because:

(a)

fixed number of trials (four seasons/years)

fixed probability (67% success rate for pollination)

two outcomes (pollinated, not pollinated)

independence of events (a plant being pollinated or not does not affect

chances of the same plant being pollinated or not in another
season/year).

Achievement
Probability calculated
with identification of
probability distribution
and parameters.

Merit

Excellence

Probability calculated
with identification of
probability distribution
and parameter
AND
justification of applying
this distribution linked to
the context.

Assumption is that the bees visit all the plants.

P(X 3) = 1 P(X 2) = 1 0.4015 = 0.5985
Binomial distribution
n = 12, p = 0.91

Probability calculated
for one season.

Probability calculated
for both seasons with at
least one assumption of
independence stated.

Triangular distribution

Triangular distribution

P(X = 11) = 0.3827

P(11 plants produce fruit for both seasons/years)
(b)

= 0.38272 = 0.1465
Assuming whether a plant is pollinated or not in one season does not affect
the chances of the same plant being pollinated or not in another season/year,
and assuming whether a plant is pollinated or not in one season/year does
not affect the chances of another plant being pollinated or not in the same
season/year.

(c)

The distribution of amounts of individual sales can be modelled by the

Triangular distribution

NCEA Level 3 Mathematics and Statistics 91586 (3.14) page 5 of 6

triangular distribution (assuming that sales are always between $0 and

$1000). The shape of the distribution of the data provided supports this model
as it has a clear mode at $700 (or modal class of $650 - $750). The random
variable amount per sale can be treated as continuous.
This gives the following model:

identified as appropriate
model and probability of
an individual sale of at
least $800 correctly
calculated using this
model.

identified and justified

as an appropriate model
using features of the
supplied data and the
probability of an
individual sale of at
least $800 correctly
calculated using this
model.

identified and justified

as an appropriate
model using features
of the supplied data
and the probability of
an individual sale of at
least $800 correctly
calculated using this
model
AND

The value of f(x) at 800 = 2(1000 800)/[(1000 0)(1000 700)] = 0.0013

P(X 800) = 0.5 x 200 x 0.0013 = 0.13
(using the formula for the area of a triangle)
Assuming that the amount of each individual sale is independent from each
other, the binomial distribution can be used, with n = 8 (fixed number trials, 8
sales), and p = 0.13 (fixed probability of success, probability of sale being at
least $800):
P(X 2) = 1 P(X 1) = 1 0.7206= 0.2794

Not Achieved

Achievement

No response; no relevant evidence.

N1

Candidate gives a partial solution to ONE part of the question.

N2

Candidate gives partial solutions to TWO parts of the question.

A3

Candidate gives ONE opportunity from the Achievement criteria.

A4

Candidate gives TWO opportunities from the Achievement criteria.

Identification and
justification of the
binomial distribution as
an appropriate model
and the probability of
at least two sales
being at least $800
correctly calculated
using this model.

NCEA Level 3 Mathematics and Statistics 91586 (3.14) page 6 of 6

Merit
Excellence

M5

Candidate gives ONE opportunity from the Merit criteria.

M6

Candidate gives TWO opportunities from the Merit criteria.

E7

Candidate meets the Excellence criteria except for minor errors in calculation.

E8

Candidate meets the Excellence criteria.