Back Trajectory Techniques in Air Pollution

Introduction:
Definition: Trajectories: the paths of infinitesimally small
particles of air as they move through time and space.
Such fluid particles, marked at a certain point in space at a
given time, can be traced forward or backward in time along
their trajectory.
Backward (back) trajectories:
indicate the past path of a particle
Forward trajectories:
indicate the future path of a particle
Applications of Back Trajectories:
Synoptic meteorology
Investigate air mass flow around mountains (Steinacker, 1984)
Climatology
Identify pathways of water vapor transport (DAbreton and
Tyson, 1996) or desert dust (Chiapello et al., 1997)
Environmental Sciences
Establish source-receptor relationships of air pollutants (Stohl,
1996a)
Law Enforcement
Combine with pollen measurements to find possible locations of
marijuana cultivation (Cabezudo et al.,1997)
dX
V
dt

Calculation of the Back Trajectory:

X - the position vector during a time step dt resulting from the

wind
v - mean wind velocity vector (no consideration the turbulent
mixing in atmosphere)
Calculation of the Back Trajectory (contd)
X(t) X(X o , t)

If known x0 at t0 :

dX
X(t) X(t 0 ) ( t)
dt

to

d2X
( t)
dt 2
1
2

to

X(t) X(t o ) ( t)V(t o )

Error Sources in the Computation of Back

Trajectories
Wind field errors
In many cases, they are the largest single source of errors for
back trajectory calculations. Wind field errors can be due to
either analysis or forecast errors.

Starting position errors and amplification of errors

The starting positions of the trajectories are often not exactly
known
Difficult to select start positions due to the differences between
the model topography and the real topography
Back trajectory position errors can be strongly amplified in
convergent flow.

Error sources for the computation of back

trajectories (cont)
Truncation errors
They come from the trajectory equation solution, which is
approximated by a finite-difference scheme that neglects the
higher order terms of Taylor series. In order to keep truncation
errors negligible, a numerical scheme of high order using very
short time steps is needed.

Interpolation errors
Due to the limit available wind data, wind speed must be
estimated at the trajectory position. The interpolation errors will
be caused during the process.

Errors resulting from assumptions regarding the vertical

wind
Because there are no routine observation of vertical wing
component w, Wind field of w can only gotten from
meteorological model. So, it is less accurate than the horizontal
wind fields.
X(t t) X(t) t [v(t) v(t)]

Lagrangian Particle Dispersion

Models (LPDM)
V - mean wind vector obtained directly from meteorological
model
V - turbulent wind vector describing the turbulent diffusion of
the tracer in the PBL.

Lagrangian box models

Similar to LPDM, changes in the concentrations in the box
caused by chemical reactions and deposition are calculated.
No boundary conditions are required.
Applicable only at higher levels of the atmosphere
The most important boundary layer processes, such as the
formation of nighttime reservoir layers or the rapid growth of the
mixed layer depth in the morning, can be described with such
models (Hertel et al., 1995),

Statistical analyses of trajectories

-Flow Climatologies
-Cluster analysis
-Residence time analysis and conditional probability

-Concentration fields
-Redistributed concentration field
-Inverse modeling

Accuracy

Measure of the integral effect of all errors

Determined by following the movement of
conserved tracers:
Balloons
-Stay at a constant pressure height
-Do not measure vertical errors

Material Tracers

-Conservative species are monitored.

-Compare results with Meteorological measurements

Dynamical Tracers
-Attempt to model vertical movement in the atmosphere
-Potential temperature, isentropic potential vorticity

Examples Applications of Back-Trajectory

Techniques
Determination of Regional Sources of Winter Smoke
Pollution in New Zealand
Tajectory analysis of particulates in Big Bend
national park

Determination of Regional Sources of

Smoke Pollution in Winter
Night time burning of wood and coal in domestic
fires created smoke pollution for the town of
Christchurch, New Zealand.
In the evening, temperature inversions trap
pollution close to the surface.
Burning created high concentrations of particulate
matter from the ground to 10m.

Used back-trajectory models to determine origin

and pathways of polluted parcels.

Complexities
-Terrain creates complexity in low level flow.
-On clear calm nights, radiative cooling of hill slopes causes cold
air drainage into the region of interest.

Techniques
-Only enough data to use simple back-trajectory techniques.
-Lagrangian Kinematic Back-Trajectory Modeling techniques.
-Regional Atmospheric Modelling System (RAMS) based on
averaged nocturnal wind fields typically associated with high
pollution events in the city (1995-2000).