Silver Prices and Technical Analysis

We started this series shallow and wide on the subject of

what's really determining the silver price
What are the factors, the most influential factors right now? Last
week we covered high-frequency trading and algorithm trading in
association with the future's market. This week we're going to
kind of go on a second factor, which is silver prices and technical
analysis.
Once again, we started this whole discussion about talking on just
surface level the major influences on price. We started with
electronic price discovery versus the sort of fundamental reality
underneath, underlying it. We went through 6 factors. We listed
the futures market and HFT. And today the focus will be technical
analysis.
We'll talk about in subsequent episodes the standard of care
mechanism that manage money traders use. We'll also go through
data analysis, options expiration, the FOMC, and actually a whole
host of others.
Last week, we focused on high-frequency trading and algorithm
trading.
This presentation comes on the heels of lots of volatility.
Upside for a change, but nevertheless very artificially induced.
The purpose: I want you to be able to wake up in the morning, see

the price down 3%, and instead of immediately going out and
trying to find a bunch of false or offered correlations as to what's
going on.. Correlations that that are often totally disconnected
I want you to stay connected and look at what the primary pricing
mechanism, the most important factors that influence price.
Last week, we discussed HFT and algorithm trading.
As a recap, I don't think that speed, electronics, or computers are
necessarily a bad thing, but when you combine self-regulation
with a for-profit exchange like the CME, that's a recipe for
disaster, and that's actually where we are. Algos arent necessarily
a bad thing either. High frequency traders (HFTs) have evolved
from a special privelege. This special class of algorithm trader are
represented by the commercial traders on the Comex. The Comex
is owned by the for-profit Chicago Mercantile Exchange or the
CME.
HFTs have access to exclusive information and the ability to move
or put the price wherever they want. They use key technical
indicators as their target. And the daily moving average price is a
primary one in the silver futures market.
We will touch on the other technical indicators, but the key one is
the moving average. I think that's probably a pretty good segue
into diving into really the core today I want to talk about.
Silver price and technical analysis.
Again, I think the main one is the moving average, but what is
technical analysis? Technical analysis is really a method. It's a
method of forecasting that's based primarily on price and volume.
It's been around for nearly 200 years. I know that's not forever,
but it's been around for a long time. There have evolved from it,

models and our trading rules and our charts and patterns. These
charts and patterns have existed the longest, because they were
around before we had computers that could crunch numbers and
create all these statistical data sets.
We have indicators now that are really just mathematical
transformations of where price and volume are. There are
techniques that have evolved from technical analysis. Many of
you know or have heard these before: Candlestick charting.
There's the Elliot Wave theory, there's the Dow theory. These are
techniques.
Many traders use some combination of all of these. Some of the
patterns that I'm sure you've heard of are head & shoulders,
double top/bottom reversals. There are support and resistance
channels and flags and pennants. These things that you can kind
of read when you look at a price chart over a period of time, you
can see these patterns evolving, like patterns in tealeaves.
Some of the indicators, these mathematical indicators are up and
down volume, the RSI which is the relative strength indicator, the
moving average convergence and divergence, the MACD or the
moving average, which I think is the daily moving average, I
believe is the most important one. Of those moving averages, you
have the 10, 20, 50, 100. There are others, but the 50 and the
200, really the 20, 50, and the 200 are the key ones. The 200 is the
one we are flirting with right now.
This is where kind of we've been over the last week, we've seen
kind of a nice little rise in the price.
We moved through the 50-day moving average very quickly up to
the 200-day moving average. I think Monday we crossed over and
then went below. Tuesday we went through it. Yesterday we
stayed above it. Now today we're way down below it. We're not

down to the 50-day moving average which is technically a positive

sign, or may be a positive sign. What we'll actually find out ...
What's interesting is that because Tuesday was a cut off day for a
data report that we talk about a lot. We go over our weekly
review in our membership program every week, we analyze this
data, so every Friday a report comes out from the CFTC. It's the
commitment of traders report. That report shows the interaction
of the 2 major entities that formulate the silver price on the
futures market, the Comex, the most important exchange for
discovering silver prices currently in the world.
There are other exchanges that are evolving, that are coming online. The Comex is still the largest by volume by far. These 2
entities, these main entities, the commercial traders, the big
banks, the investment banks, the JP Morgans versus the managed
money traders or the hedge funds or these funds that are
basically managing money on behalf of others, other people's
money.
The interaction is based upon these technical indicators. In that
report, we'll be able to see the change in their trading structure,
the relative positions of those traders. What we'll probably see
based on today's price action is that on Tuesday's cut off when
the report comes out on Friday, it's a little confusing, we'll see
what happened was that most likely the managed money traders
had covered a lot of short positions that they had accumulated in
that rally, so that position will be less. That category usually
represents the fuel that burns when we move up through these
moving averages.
On the other side, you'll see the net short position of the
commercial traders will have increased. You and I probably
noticed that even during these rallies we saw ... I think Friday was

the biggest up day we had seen in a year. Even though we were

up and it was significant, we were up at 5%, we still tapered off.
That's an indication that that rally was capped, and we'll see
evidence of that in the commitment of traders report.
What that all means is that we're still locked in this cycle, this
pattern where these big traders, they're commercial traders who
use high-frequency trading in order to keep the price contained,
to keep a veil over the fundamental supply and demand reality.
In that video, you can go back to the You Tube channel to find it,
we talked about the major factors that I think will lead to a
convergence where what we're seeing on the surface in terms of
price, these factors will converge and the true fundamentalist
supply and demand factors will kind of manifest.
We're seeing a lot of those signs right now. We can talk about
them but, again, just to recap, we've been talking about technical
analysis as it pertains to the silver market and futures market in
particular, the moving average, the relative strength indicator,
and the MACD are probably the most important technical
indicators.
I would say moving average is number 1, and we're kind of flirting
around with a 200-day moving average today. You saw when you
woke up this morning, most of you saw the price was down a solid
2-1/2, 3%. Really out of nowhere. There's no economic
justification.
What's absurd about all of this is that if you back up and you
look at this whole phenomenon, this religion of technical
analysis, which these traders really adhere to, it's based upon a
fundamental, this principle that price reflects all of the relevant
information. That's it. That belief right there is what all of this
analysis hinges on, is this belief that the price is already done,

already factored in, all of the relevant information.

Of course, it hasn't even been factored in even close to the
relative information. That's a dangerous thing. I remember, and
I'm sure you remember as well, when I was a kid, I watched
professional wrestling with my friends. I was convinced, only
because they were so convinced ... I had this funny feeling that it
couldn't be real, although it seemed like it was pretty athletic and
impressive what these guys were doing, but my friends, they
really believed it, and they would fight about it and argue about it.
It turns out many years later, it's all just ... It's not real at all.
Technical analysis is dangerous. That was entertainment. This is
dangerous, because we've gone so far disconnected that, as
Russell was saying before in the chats, he feels his internal alarm
bells ringing, because when we do correct finally, most people are
going to be in for a significant wake-up call. That's the core of
what I wanted to present today. I know that was kind of fast. I do
have a couple of charts to show you. I'd like to answer questions
or take your questions and comments.
How absurd this idea of the principle of technical analysis that
price is actually taken into consideration all of these factors. Look
at this, inflation and student loans and food stamps. I know you've
seen this before, but debt levels, overall money printing, health
insurance costs. Look at labor force participation. The workers
share of the economy which is related. Median family income also
related to that. Even home ownership.
Again, that's another reason why I think we're in for a shock, most
people are.

Q&A

To what extent do the manipulators use technical analysis?

The way that they use it ... They use it to make money. The
commercial traders, I think, they're in this for a lot of reasons we
can go into. Who's controlling them? Who controls the fed? But
on the surface, they're using it to profit.
Today, for example, maybe over the last couple of days, they
allowed these managed money traders to maybe come back in
before they would fleece them by putting the price back
underneath the 200-day moving average, so it looked like
everything was going to keep going up because, technically
speaking, we just crossed over a huge ... We stayed above the
200-day moving average.
The manipulators, again, they use it because they could put the
price where they want it, and they know the trade structure. They
know how these managed money funds trade. In fact, they broker
their trades. They're the dealers for these guys. They're just
gaming them. They're playing them. They're playing it for a profit.
That's what they get on a surface. No one's watching, so they can
do it all day long. They're still involved, unfortunately.
**
Steve believes that the manipulators don't care about technical
analysis, and that manipulation's done for political reasons. I
agree and I disagree. I think that they use technical analysis to
game it, to make money. It justifies their existence if they're
making a profit. JP Morgan has a perfect trading record. But
you're right in that there are political reasons, I believe, that are
connected to this. The purpose of this, the reason why I want to
bring it out is because it allows regular people like you and I ...
instead of going out there when the price is moving and trying
again to find some crazy correlation, or being sucked into the

commentary that usually follows like ... I haven't seen any of the
stories yet, but you'll see them come up. Someone will say, "Oh,
yeah, the silver price is down because we have deflation. China is
not producing. Greece is going to turn over again," and all these
really sort of loosely-connected reasons, when the trade ... You
can see the trading actually happen in the data.
I think that's why it's important to kind of keep people sane. Some
peace of mind. Even for long-term investors, because there's
really no way to turn all of this off. The information is out there.
It's so easy. You can turn on your computer and it's right there,
whether it's the price or a commentary about the price. I feel like
many people become disillusioned on this journey and forget
about really ... Again, it's a veil. This all puts a veil over really the
underlying fundamental supply and demand reality.
.
I'll add here that there is a legal precedent for intervention in
these markets, at least in gold, for example.
If you follow any of GATAs (gata.org) work, you can go through
their essays. There has been a legal precedent for intervention in
the gold market for years, primarily through the exchange
stabilization fund (ESF), which was created at the end of World
War II.
I haven't seen a legal precedent for involvement in the silver
market, but we've gotten to the point where the regulators are
completely captured. The fox really does guard the hen house in
these markets. There's not going to be any regulatory
intervention.
If you take the combined budgets of the CFTC, the department of
justice, the SCC, the GAO, all of them combined don't even come
close to the money power behind even one investment bank, like
the JP Morgan for example. Any kind of lawsuit or suit will just go

on forever.
Chris asked the question about signs of shortage.
That's one of the factors that I think will eventually break the back
of paper trading. I haven't heard anything brand new this week.
More of the same. There's certainly controversy. I've heard some
people say they can find silver, or there's a slight delay - but only
for certain products like the American Silver Eagle. Premiums, I've
seen people report from 20 to 50% premiums on Eagles, but
normal premiums for rounds or junk, small bars, for example.
There's definitely something going on. The US Mint continues to
report significant demand. We've seen it out of Perth also. On the
surface, the fact that this demand exists, is incredible given the
overall sentiment.
Even if you move beyond sort of hearsay from the retail demand
side, but if you look at like US Mint Reports or what's coming out
of Perth, the fact that we are so down in the dumps in terms of
sentiment overall ...
Nobody sees this market, and yet demand has been so strong.
That goes against human nature. Either Ted's right that there's
major intervention by someone who knows better, or we're small
but collectively there are enough of us that see this as an
opportunity.
I don't know if I believe that. I think that even people that
understand the opportunity still can't get over what they see in
this price, this illusory price that's created by these points that I've
been bringing up.
We certainly haven't seen or heard any more evidence of that
particular retail shortage developing into a wholesale shortage,

although if you look at what Ted Butler brings up every week, (to
which no one makes much comment about,) is the very visible
and frantic into and out from silver COMEX warehouse
inventory.
No other commodity is exhibiting this kind of massive turnover.
That's huge, but only time will tell if that develops into a
wholesale shortage.
If you know the story and you see lower prices, then many people
look at it as a buying opportunity. Especially for a long-term
investor.
As I reflect on who we're talking to or who you guys are and as
time goes on, Ive witnessed an interesting phenomenon. You've
seen this go on and on. We've seen swings from single digits to 20
back to 8, up to 50, back down to where we are now.
If you're brand new and you have an open mind and you can see
the fundamentals clearly enough or objectively enough, then
many see manipulation as a gift, an opportunity not to be taken
for granted.
However, I don't think that's fair for most of us who have been
here for a long time, many people who want to retire, who have
been waiting for this. It seems like the writing has been on the
walls for years.
Maybe that's the definition of long-term investment, but many
people see this as, Wow, here's another opportunity to buy low.
I think when we moved to the 200-day moving average, and given
what we know is likely about the positioning that transpired as we
got there, it would been prudent, if you were thinking of buying,
to wait until we get pushed back down, which is the normal
pattern that's developed.

While you can't predict, or I think forecast accurately, you can

come up with a spectrum of probability, and that's something we
are developing that as we discuss these issues.
Again, the purpose of this was to kind of create some sanity by
understanding what the major price influences are. This is a series
that we've been doing. We began by introducing the key factors,
and then we've been doing in these episodes, these shorter
episodes, a subsequent deep dive into each one of the categories.
Again, my hope is that it arms you with some information that will
keep you kind of
If you have any questions, feel free always to email me. You can
find me, again, if you don't know me, Silver-Coin-Investor.com.