Weighted Moving Average Forecast

alpha2 = 0.000 Month Actual Sales (000) 3month WMA Fcst Absolute Error
alpha1 = 0.000 January 20
alpha0 = 1.000 February 24
SUM OF WTS= 1.00 March 27
April 31 27.00 4.00
May 37 31.00 6.00
June 47 37.00 10.00
July 53 47.00 6.00
August 62 53.00 9.00
September 54 62.00 8.00
October 36 54.00 18.00
November 32 36.00 4.00
December 29 32.00 3.00
January 29.00

MAD = 7.56
 Weighted Moving Average Forecast

alpha2 = 0 Month Actual Sales (000) 3month WMA Fcst Absolute Error
alpha1 = 0 January 20
alpha0 = 1 February 24
SUM OF WTS= =SUM(B1:B3) March 27
April 31 =B$1*E2+B$2*E3+B$3*E4 =ABS(E5-F5)
May 37 =B$1*E3+B$2*E4+B$3*E5 =ABS(E6-F6)
June 47 =B$1*E4+B$2*E5+B$3*E6 =ABS(E7-F7)
July 53 =B$1*E5+B$2*E6+B$3*E7 =ABS(E8-F8)
August 62 =B$1*E6+B$2*E7+B$3*E8 =ABS(E9-F9)
September 54 =B$1*E7+B$2*E8+B$3*E9 =ABS(E10-F10)
October 36 =B$1*E8+B$2*E9+B$3*E10 =ABS(E11-F11)
November 32 =B$1*E9+B$2*E10+B$3*E11 =ABS(E12-F12)
December 29 =B$1*E10+B$2*E11+B$3*E12 =ABS(E13-F13)
January =B$1*E11+B$2*E12+B$3*E13

MAD = =AVERAGE(G5:G13)
 Exponential Smoothing Forecast

alpha 1.000 Month Actual Sales (000) Exp Smoothing Absolute Error
January 20 20.00
February 24 20.00 4.00
March 27 24.00 3.00
April 31 27.00 4.00
May 37 31.00 6.00
June 47 37.00 10.00
July 53 47.00 6.00
August 62 53.00 9.00
September 54 62.00 8.00
October 36 54.00 18.00
November 32 36.00 4.00
December 29 32.00 3.00
January 29.00

MAD = 6.82
 Exponential Smoothing Forecast

alpha 1 Month Actual Sales (000) Exp Smoothing Absolute Error

January 20 =E2
February 24 =E2*B$1+(1-B$1)*F2 =ABS(E3-F3)
March 27 =E3*B$1+(1-B$1)*F3 =ABS(E4-F4)
April 31 =E4*B$1+(1-B$1)*F4 =ABS(E5-F5)
May 37 =E5*B$1+(1-B$1)*F5 =ABS(E6-F6)
June 47 =E6*B$1+(1-B$1)*F6 =ABS(E7-F7)
July 53 =E7*B$1+(1-B$1)*F7 =ABS(E8-F8)
August 62 =E8*B$1+(1-B$1)*F8 =ABS(E9-F9)
September 54 =E9*B$1+(1-B$1)*F9 =ABS(E10-F10)
October 36 =E10*B$1+(1-B$1)*F10 =ABS(E11-F11)
November 32 =E11*B$1+(1-B$1)*F11 =ABS(E12-F12)
December 29 =E12*B$1+(1-B$1)*F12 =ABS(E13-F13)
January =E13*B$1+(1-B$1)*F13

MAD = =AVERAGE(G3:G13)