Distributed Solar Energy Generation

Market Drivers and Barriers, Technology Trends, and Global Market Forecasts
Distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) systems offer the benefit of producing electricity
onsite, thereby reducing the need to build new transmission capacity and avoiding line
losses. Distributed generation can offer significant benefits to consumers while adding
resiliency to an electric grid based on a traditional centralized model. These systems
are used in applications ranging from residential to small commercial to industrial use.
Though this market is still primarily driven by government incentives, distributed solar
PV will continue its steady march toward grid parity in major markets over the next
few years.
The global distributed solar photovoltaic market contracted slightly in 2012, due to
reduced market activity in Italy and Germany. However, growth in the United States,
China, Japan, and other countries continued, driven by solar PV module price
reductions, the growth of third-party financing models, and feed-in tariffs. Navigant
Research forecasts that from 2013 to 2018 220 GW of distributed solar PV will be
installed worldwide, representing $540.3 billion in revenue.
This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for distributed solar PV systems less than 1 MW in capacity and
provides an assessment of the most important market drivers, technology trends, and challenges faced by the growing
distributed solar PV industry. Forecasts for average installed prices and annual installations, segmented by region, extend
through 2018.

KEY MARKET FORECASTS

TECHNOLOGIES

Distributed Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted

Average) by Component, World Markets: 2006-2018

Solar photovoltaics
(PV)

Average Distributed Solar PV Installed Price

by Region, World Markets: 2009-2018

Crystalline modules

Thin-film modules

Annual Distributed Solar PV Revenue by Region,

World Markets: 2009-2018

Inverters

Balance of system
(BOS)

Annual Distributed Solar PV Capacity by Country,

North America: 2012-2018

GEOGRAPHIES

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity

by Country, Leading European Countries: 2012-2018

North America

Europe

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity

by Country, Asia Pacific: 2012-2018

Asia Pacific

Rest of World

END USE MARKETS

Residential

Small commercial

Industrial onsite
generation

Schools

Farms

Wineries

Campuses

TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.

2.

3.

4.

5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Average Distributed Solar PV Installed Price by Region,

World Markets: 2009-2018

Annual Distributed Solar PV Revenue by Region, World

Markets: 2009-2018

Market Issues
2.1 Defining Distributed Solar Energy Generation
2.2 Distributed Solar PV Market Overview and Key Trends
2.2.1 Distributed Generation Can Still Mean Thinking Big
2.2.2 Distributed Solar Gains Public and Political Traction
versus Centralized Solar
2.2.3 Solar PV Reaching Grid Parity
2.3 Market Drivers and Legislative / Regulatory Mandates
2.3.1 Financial Incentives, Public Policies, and Trade
Wars
2.3.1.1 FITs
2.3.1.1.1. North America
2.3.1.1.2. Europe
2.3.1.1.3. Asia Pacific
2.3.2 Net Metering Policies
2.3.3 Renewable Energy Certificates
2.3.4 Utility Asset Ownership Models
2.3.5 Residential and Commercial Solar PV Leases and
Power Purchase Agreements
2.4 Implementation Issues
2.4.1 Grid Interconnection
2.4.2 Standards and Permitting
2.4.3 Utilities Fear of Higher Penetration of Renewables

Cumulative Solar PV Installed Systems and Capacity by

System Size, Italy: 2010 and 2011

Annual Solar PV Installed Systems and Capacity by System

Size, Italy: 2011

Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by State and System

Size, Germany: 2012

Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by State and System

Size, Germany: 2011

Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by State and System

Size, Germany: 2010

Quarterly Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, United

States: 2010-2012E

Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, United

States: 2010-2012E

Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity Market Share by

Segment, United States: 2008-2012E

Technology Trends
3.1 PV Module Oversupply Leads to Significant Price
Reductions
3.2 Inverter and Balance of System Price Declines
3.3 Technology Trend: Microinverters, AC Modules, and DC
Optimizers
3.3.1 Microinverters and AC Panels
3.3.2 DC Optimizers

Comparing Current Status of Distributed Solar PV and

Centralized Solar Projects in California

Solar PV Cheaper than Grid Electricity in Southern Germany

German Utility Meets More than 100% of Load with Solar and
Wind on May 8, 2011

Cost Comparison of Residential Solar PV Installation Costs,

United States and Germany: 2011

Module-Level Power Management

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region,

World Markets: 2012-2018

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue

by Region, World Markets: 2010-2012

Annual Solar PV System Installed Capacity by System Size,

Germany: 2010-2012

Annual Solar PV Installed Capacity by Segment, United

States: 2010-2012E

Distributed Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted Average)

by Component, World Markets: 2006-2018

Executive Summary
1.1 Distributed Solar PV Market Overview and Key Trends
1.2 Key Trends in Distributed Solar Energy Generation
1.2.1 Distributed Solar PV Systems Forecast

Market Forecasts
4.1 Distributed Solar PV Systems
4.1.1 North America
4.1.2 European Union
4.1.3 Asia Pacific
4.1.4 Rest of World
Company Directory
Acronym and Abbreviation List
Table of Contents
Table of Charts and Figures
Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

LIST OF TABLES

LIST OF CHARTS & FIGURES

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region,

World Markets: 2009-2018

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country,

North America: 2012-2018

Distributed Energy Generation Technology Comparison:

2012

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country,

Leading European Countries: 2012-2018

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country,

World Markets: 2009-2018

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Country,

Asia Pacific: 2012-2018

Distributed Solar PV System Prices (Non-Weighted

Average) by Component, World Markets: 2006-2018

Average Distributed Solar PV System Installed Price by

Region, World Markets: 2010-2018

Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018

60,000

North America
50,000

Europe
Asia Pacific

(MW)

40,000

Rest of World

30,000

20,000

10,000

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

(Source: Navigant Research)

KEY QUESTIONS ADDRESSED

Which countries will lead in distributed solar PV development

over the next 6 years and why?
What is the current status and outlook for distributed solar PV
financial incentives?
How much does it cost to install distributed solar PV in major
markets?
How is technological innovation playing a role in the
development of the distributed solar PV industry?
What key barriers and opportunities will shape the distributed
solar PV market?
How much capital will be invested in total distributed solar PV
installations by 2018?
What is the forecast through 2018 for annual distributed solar
PV installations, in terms of capacity, broken down by region?
How will average prices for distributed solar PV change over the
next 4 years?

WHO NEEDS THIS REPORT?

Solar PV module and component manufacturers

Solar PV industry service providers
Renewable energy technology suppliers
Renewable energy project developers
Utilities
Economic development agencies
Government agencies and regulators
Investor community

REPORT DETAILS
Price

$3200

Pages

41

Tables, Charts, Figures

28

Release Date

2Q 2013

TO ORDER THIS REPORT

Phone: +1.303.997.7609
Email: research-sales@navigant.com