III.

SOLUTIO GENERALIS ALTERA PRAECEDENTIS PROBLEMATIS, OPE

COMBINATIONUM & SERIERUM INFINITARUM,
D. ABR. DE MOIVRE, REG. SOC. SODALEM
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS VOL. 29, PP. 145158

If two gamesters & compete at the same time, to be designated the victor, the
defeated, let be written; and in turn to be designated the victor, the defeated; let
be written: & thus of the remaining.1
Let be put 1 to defeat , and the contest to be concluded in three games

Thus it is clear to escape the victor necessarily.

Let be put 2 to defeat , and the contest to be concluded in four games.

Thus it is clear to escape the victor necessarily.

Let be put 3 to defeat , and the contest to be concluded in five games.

Thus it is clear to escape the victor necessarily,

2

and it in two ways.

Let be put 4 the first in turn to defeat , and the contest to be concluded in six
games.

Date: September 6, 2009.

Translated by Richard J. Pulskamp, Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Xavier University,
Cincinnati, OH. .
1See also pages 139150 of the Doctrine of Chances, 3rd Edition.
1

DE MOIVRE

Thus it is clear to escape the victor necessarily,

and it in three ways.

Let be put 5 the contest to be concluded in seven games, and let be put always first
to defeat in turn the one .

Thus it is clear or to escape

the victor necessarily, in three

ways, and in two.

Let be put 6 the contest to be concluded in eight games,

Thus it is clear to escape the victor in three, in two, in three ways, &c.
Now the letters may be written in order in which the victors are designated.
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
&c.

1
1
2
3
3 + 2
3 + 2 + 3
3 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 2
3 + 2 + 3 + 3 + 2 + 3 + 2 + 2

SOLUTION GENERALIS

With the formation of those examined, it will be clear 1 the letter to be found in any
row always as many times, as is found in the last & penultimate row: 2 to be found
in any row as many times as in the last row & in the penultimate row are found: 3
to be found in any row as many times as in the last & in the penultimate: 4 to
be found in any row always as many times as in the last row & in the penultimate are
found.
But the number of variations corresponding to whatever given number of games, is
the double of the number of all variations corresponding to the given number of games
diminished by unity: and precisely the Probability which Gamester has that he may
defeat in a given number of games, is one-half the probability which had that he defeated
in the given number of games less one; and furthermore one-fourth the probability which
the same had, that he defeated in the given number of games less two: & thus with the
others.
The probability has, that he may defeat in a given number of games, is one-half the
probability which had, that he defeated in the given number of games less one; and
furthermore one-fourth the probability which had, that he defeated in the given number
of games less two.
The probability which has that he may defeat in a given number of games, is one-half
the probability which had, that he defeated in the given number of games less one; and
furthermore one-fourth the probability which had, that he defeated in the given number
of games less two.
The probability which has that he may defeat in a given number of games, is one-half
the probability which had, that he defeated in the given number of games less one; and
furthermore one-fourth the probability which had that he defeated in the given number
of games less two.
Now out of the observations it is easy to compose the Table of Probabilities, which
, , , have that they escape the victorious in a given number of games, and furthermore of those lots or expectations.
Table of Probabilites, &c.

i 3
ii 4
iii 5
iiii 6
v 7
vi
8
vii 9
viii 10
ix 11
x 12

1
4

4 + 3

1
8

4 + 4
2
16

4 + 5
3
32

3
64 4 + 7
3
128 4 + 8

4 + 6

4
512 4 + 10
13
1024 4 + 11
18
2048 4 + 12

2
64 4 + 7
3
128 4 + 8
3
256 4 + 9
2
512 4 + 10
10
1024 4 + 11
19
2048 4 + 12

2
128 4 + 8
6
256 4 + 9
6
512 4 + 10
2
1024 4 + 11
14
2048 4 + 12

4
256 4 + 9
9
512 4 + 10
9
1024 4 + 11
4
2048 4 + 12

&c.

&c.

&c.

&c.

Now indeed these series are converging, and they are able to be summed precisely by
common Arithmetic; & either the precise sums if they can be, or at least approximate, if it
should not be permitted, will be obtained to use many terms.

DE MOIVRE

To discover the sums of the probabilities proceeding all the way to infinity,
which the Gamesters have that they may escape victorious.
Let there be all the Probabilities of the one to infinity, certainly
+ + + + + &c. =
The probabilities of the one

+ + + + + &c. =
The probabilities of the one
+ + + + + &c. =
The probabilities of the one

+ + + + + &c. =
But they should be written in a descending perpendicular Scale, according to this way.
=
=
= 21 + 14
= 12 + 14
= 12 + 14
= 12 + 14
Therefore = 14 + 12 + 41 .

Hence =

1
4

+ 34 .

Demonstration.
As a matter of fact the first perpendicular column = , by Hypothesis. It is true +
+ + + + &c.= , by hypothesis; Therefore

1 1 1 1 1
1
+ + + + ,&. = .
2
2
2
2
2
2
Hence
1 1 1 1
1
1
+ + + &c. = .
2
2
2
2
2
2
And
1
1
1
1
1
1
+ + + + + &c. = + + .
2
2
2
2
2
2
But 12 = 0, = 0 & = 14 , as it is clear from the Table.
Therefore the second perpendicular column = 14 + 12 .
But the third perpendicular column = 41 .
Therefore there will be = 14 + 43 .
In a similar manner there may be written

SOLUTION GENERALIS

=
=
= 12 + 14
this is = 12 + 41 .
= 12 + 14
1
1

= 2 + 4
= 12 + 41
&c. =
Therefore
= 18 + 21 18 + 41 .
Furthermore there may be written
=
=
= 12 + 14
= 12 + 14
= 12 + 14
= 12 + 14
&c. =

& by a like argument it is clear

= 12 + 41 .

Finally there may be written

=
=
= 21 + 41
= 12 + 41
= 12 + 41
= 12 + 41
&c. =

Whence = 12 + 41 will be concluded.

But with these four equations resolved, it will be discovered

+ + + &c. = =
+ + + &c. = =
+ + + &c. = =
+ + + &c. = =
With those values discovered, now let be put
Again let there be.

56
149

= ,

36
149

56
149
36
149
32
149
25
149

= ,

32
149

3 + 4 + 5 + 6 &c. =
3 + 4 + 5 + 6 &c. =
3 + 4 + 5 + 6 &c. =
3 + 4 + 5 + 6 &c. =

= ,

25
149

= .

DE MOIVRE

3 = 3
4 = 4
5 = 52 + 54
6 = 62 + 64
7 = 72 + 74
8 = 82 + 84
Therefore
= 34 + 34 + .
As a matter of fact the first perpendicular Column = , by Hypothesis:
3 + 4 = 43 :
For there is = 41 , & = 0.
3 + 4 + 5 &c. = by Hypothesis.
+ + &c. = , as was discovered.
There is therefore
4 + 5 + 6 + 7 &c. = +
4
5
6
7
And
&c. = 12 + 12 .
2 + 2 + 2 + 2

But
= 0.
Therefore the second perpendicular column = 43 + 12 + 21 .
3 + 4 + 5 + 6 &c. =
2 + 2 + 2 + 2 &c. = 2

There is therefore 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 &c. = + 2

5
6
7
8
And
&c. = 14 + 12 .
2 + 2 + 2 + 2
1
1
Therefore the third perpendicular column is = 4 + 2 .
Therefore there will be = 34 + 21 + 12 + 14 + 12
or
= 43 + 43 + , what was to be proved.
3 = 3
4 = 4
= 25 + 54
6 = 62 + 64
7 = 72 + 74
8 = 82 + 84
&c. =
Therefore = 12 + 12 + 14 + 21 .
As a matter of fact the first perpendicular Column = , by Hypothesis.
3 + 4 = 12 .
3 + 4 + 5 + 6 &c. =
+ + + 6 &c. =
Therefore there is 4 + 5 + 6 + 7 &c. = + .
But
4 = 1.
Therefore
5 + 6 + 7 &c. = + 1.
5
6
7
&c. = 12 + 21 12 .
2 + 2 + 2
Therefore the second perpendicular Column = 21 + 12 + 12 12 = 12 + 12 .
Again,
3 + 4 + 5 + 6 &c. =
2 + 2 + 2 + 2 &c. = 2
Therefore there is 5 + 6 + 7 + 8 &c. = + 2.
5
6
7
8
And
&c. = 14 + 12 .
4 + 4 + 4 + 4

SOLUTION GENERALIS

Therefore the third perpendicular Column = 41 + 12 .

Therefore there is = 12 + 12 + 14 + 12 , what was to be proved.
With the same order there may be written.
3 = 3
4 = 4
5 = 12 + 45
6 = 62 + 46
7 = 72 + 84
8 = 82 + 84
&c. =
&c.
1
1
1
1
Hence
= 2 + 2 + 4 + 2 . And

3 = 3
4 = 4
5 = 21 + 54
6 = 26 + 64
7 = 27 + 74
8 = 82 + 84
= 21 + 12 + 14 + 21 .

Which Conclusions indeed are demonstrated in the same manner as above.

But with those four equations solved, there will be elicited
=

45536
,
1492

38724
,
1492

37600
,
1492

33547
33547
=
.
1492
22201

Therefore, if , , , may wish to sell to a certain Spectator the sums which they
individually hope to obtain, fairness will be that the buyer pay out
to the one
to the one

4
4

56
149
32
149

+
+

45536
22201 ,
37600
22201 ,

to the one
to the one

4
4

36
149
25
149

+
+

38724
22201 ,
33547
22201 .

To find the Probabilities which , , , have, that they must be fined, in a given
number of games.
}

If there are as many as two Games, they will be in this way.
Whence it

is clear or to be fined necessarily.
If there will have been three Games, the thing itself is had in this manner.

Hence it is clear , or or

to be fined necessarily.

If indeed there will have been four Games.

Therefore must be
fined in three ways,

in two, in one.

And thus with the remaining. From which the Composition of the adjoined Table is
manifest of the Probabilities which , , , have that they be fined, in a given number
of games.

DE MOIVRE

i
ii
iii
iiii
v
vi

Number
of Games
2
3
4
5
6
7

1
2
1
4

1
2
1
4
1
8
2
16
5
32
8
64

2
4
2
8
2
16
2
32
8
64

3
8
3
16
3
32
4
64

3
16
6
32
6
64

&c.
But let , , , be the sums of all Probabilities which , , , have respectively
that they should be fined.
Let be written in the same order as in the preceding.
=
=
= 21 + 14
= 12 + 14
= 12 + 14
= 12 + 14
&c. =
Therefore
= 34 + 21 + 14 .
= = 34 + 34 .

=
=
= 21 + 14
= 21 + 14
= 21 + 14
= 21 + 14
&c. =
Therefore
= 12 + 12 + 14 .

Let be written finally

=
=
= 12 + 14
= 21 + 41
= 21 + 14
= 21 + 41
&c. =
Therefore
= 41 + 12 + 41 .

= =
=
= 12 + 14
= 12 + 14
= 12 + 14
= 12 + 14
&c. =
Therefore = 12 + 14 .

But with those four equations resolved, there will be discovered

243
252
224
175
=
=
&=
.
249
149
149
149
Therefore if any Spectator wishes to sustain all fines, fairness will be that to the one
=

252
must hand over 243
149

224
& 175
149
149
149 .
Therefore with the sums of the probabilities which the Gamesters have individually that
they should be fined removed, from the sums of the expectations which the same have if
they depart victorious, the lots of them will remain respectively: certainly

SOLUTION GENERALIS

456
45536
accepts from
149 + 22201
243
surrenders to
149
224
9329
Therefore there remains to 149 + 22201
But had deposited 1 before the game must begin.
75
9329
Therefore gains
149 + 22201 .
436
38724
accepts from
149 + 22201
252
surrenders to
149
144
1176
Therefore there remains to 149 + 22201
But had deposited 1.
5
1176
Therefore gains
149
+ 22201
.
432
37600
accepts from
149 + 22201
224
surrenders to
149
128
4224
Therefore there remains to 149 + 22201
But had deposited 1.
21
4224
Therefore gains
149
+ 22201
.
33547
425
accepts from
149 + 22201
175
surrenders to
149
100
7472
Therefore there remains to 149 + 22201
But had deposited 1+, certainly 1 before the game must begin, & after he had been defeated by once:
49
Therefore gains
149
14729
22201 .

9329
75
+ 22201

The gain of = + 149

5
1176
of = 149 + 22201
21
4224
of = 149
+ 22201

49
14729
of = 149 22201

The sum of the gains = 0.

26
5400
But the sum of the gains of & themselves = 149
22201
;but we had posed to
have defeated the one once, before the Gamesters undertook the agreements with &
. Before indeed the game may be started, had equal lot to expect that he must defeat
26
5400
22201
should be divided precisely into two
the one , and the sum of the gains 149
13
2700
parts, thus each gain should be counted as 149 22201
.
13
2700
Let be put 149
22201
= 0, & there will be = 1937
2700 .
Therefore if the fine may be to the sum which they deposit individually as 1937 to
1
2700, & gain nothing, lose nothing. Indeed in this case gains 225
, which loses.
Corollary 1. Spectator , before the game may begin, will be able to undertake for
himself, that the sum 4 concerning which the Gamesters contend, & all fines paid out, if
they surrendered to him at the beginning 4 + 7.
Corollary 2. If the skills of the Gamesters are in given ratio, the lots of the Gamesters
will be determined by the same calculation.
Corollary 3. If any Series be so constituted, that it may decrease continuously, & any
term may have to the preceding any given ratios whatsoever, whether the same or different,

10

DE MOIVRE

that series will be summed precisely. In addition if all terms of this Series are multiplied
by the terms of an Arithmetic progression, one by one, the resulting new Series will be
summed precisely.
Corollary 4. If there are several parallel Series, so related that any term of each Series
to any preceding of the other Series has given ratio, whether the same or different, so that
those parallel Series may arrange themselves crosswise by whatever given corresponding
law, that Series will be summed exactly. In addition if all terms of these Series are multiplied in order by the terms of an Arithmetic Progression, one by one, the new Series
resulting out of this multiplication still will be summed precisely.
Key to the general Problem.
If there are any number of Gamesters for the sake of an example Six, , , , , ,
& the Probabilities which they have that they escape victorious, or that they are fined, in a
given number of Games, are denoted respectively , , , , & ; & the Probabilities corresponding to these in a given number of Games with the nearest & with the lesser,
by , , , , , ; & the Probabilities corresponding to these newest likewise
in a given number of Games with the nearest & with the lesser, by , , , , , ,
& thus in order; there will always be
1

= 12 + 14 + 18 + 16
1
1
1
1
= 2 + 4 + 8 + 16
1
= 12 + 14 + 18 + 16

1
1
1
1
= 2 + 4 + 8 + 16

1
1
1
1
= 2 + 4 + 8 + 16
1
= 12 + 14 + 18 + 16

And the retrogression in succession may happen always to as many letters less by two
as many as there are Gamesters, and the letter may always be omitted, with the first
equation excepted, where the letter occupies all terms except the first.