Sri Lankas Domestic Probe & India,

the US and China

by Kusal Perera - on 10/03/2015

The fourth US sponsored Resolution to the UNHRC Sessions in Geneva

concedes the SL government could conduct its own investigations into alleged
serious violations and abuses of human rights and related crimes assisted by
international and Commonwealth experts. This US position is what China (and
Russia) fundamentally stood for as non-interference in national issues during
previous Resolutions initiated by the US. The fourth US Resolution was adopted
without a division at the 30 Sessions this September.
What makes this change for the US was implied by US Secretary of State John Kerry
before his departure from Colombo when he addressed the media to commend the
(new) Government and the people of Sri Lanka for the decisions taken to strengthen
democracy. The two words strengthen democracy was more than about a regime
change at the January 08 (2015) presidential polls. It was about having a government

as a secure US ally in the increasingly important Indian Ocean (IO) Rim. This was
amply exhibited immediately after the parliament elections in August (2015) when two
more important US officials, Ms. Biswal and Mr. Malinowski made an extremely
hurried trip to Colombo. The visit was so fast, President Sirisena had to immediately
swear in 03 ministers for foreign affairs, justice and rehabilitation to keep to protocol
in discussions that would ensue.
The US entry has in its background the Chinese growth and expansion across the
globe. A clear shift from a post World War II US centred global economy with military
power over most of the Southern hemisphere to a Chinese centred Asian economy that
is now building up a new global order centred in Beijing. That Chinese power seems to
be working towards controlling one of the busiest seaborne routes, the Indian Ocean
(IO) sea lanes.
Entrenching Chinese interests in global economics began in the first decade of the new
millennium, with below US $ 3 billion Chinese direct investments in foreign countries
by 2005 that grew to more than US $ 50 billion by 2008 and reached 60 billion in
2010. China was one among the worlds top 10 foreign direct investors in 2011 with
$365 billion in direct foreign investment. These investments were in developing
countries in Asia and Africa. Exceptions were investments in Australian mining
industry and in Canada. After 2008 global economic meltdown Chinese investment in
Europe and North America grew strong.
In 2013 China stepped in with a new economic platform as an alternative to the World
Bank proposing an Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). Despite US
resentment, reservations and not so covert interventions against AIIB, China secured
membership from all major global players including Germany, the UK, Norway,
France, Finland, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil
and Russia among 57 nations that gathered in Beijing in June this year (2015) to sign
the Articles of Agreement of the new international bank floated by China.
This Chinese expansion is different to the global grip the US was maintaining during

and after the Cold War era. The US military might and the MNCs that controlled
consumer markets across borders were then factors in global power. Quite different to
that Chinese capital investments keep developing or under developed countries on bilateral agreements or on FTAs. Entering as projects and contracts they are also
accompanied by Chinese experts, technicians and labour in large numbers.
Indian concern on growing Chinese presence in Sri Lanka sees this as almost
permanent physical presence. It skyrocketed with a SL regime that did not see India as
equally important in its regional diplomacy. India thus had to manipulate itself, often
using the North-East conflict and its economic presence, SL governments cannot
completely ignore. The Indian Oil Company operating in SL since 2003, for instance
has over 43% share in retail fuel market and a major share in bunker fuels and
lubricants in all ports, while supplying grease and lubricants to State security forces.
Chinese economic invasion begins without much competition from India in late 2006,
when the Rajapaksa government decided to go for all-out war against the LTTE. Indian
hands were tied to Tamil Nadu politics that agitated against war on Tamil people. New
Delhi was forced to play a very silent, covert role in supporting President Rajapaksas
war against LTTE while China upped its supply of military hardware, weapons and
ammunition. For the Rajapaksa regime China fitted well with no conditions laid on
violation of human rights and international law.
The Rajapaksa regime profited too in accepting Chinese projects, funds and aid. By
2013 China had invaded the IT sector with all service providers in SL tying up with the
Chinese Huawei Technologies. By then China had invested or provided aid for most
mega projects including the Hambantota port, Hambantota Development Zone,
Mirigama Investment Promotion Zone for Chinese investors, Colombo International
Container Terminal, Colombo Port City on reclaimed land, the Lotus Tower to be the
tallest in South Asia for communication and leisure, two 500 MW thermal power
plants and developing infrastructure including expressways and highways. The total

financial involvement was calculated to be well over US $ 4,800 million by 2013 with
some numbers being estimates. Added was the Chinese labour said to be around
30,000 brought into the country during the past 03 years.
It is this Chinese presence that matters most to India given Chinese interventions in
other parts of Asia. Chinese interests in Pakistan, SL and Myanmar makes India feel it
is being gradually encircled. In Pakistan and Myanmar there is a difference. China is
there with energy driven projects crucial for Chinese growth. Bulk of fuel imports to
China come from Middle Eastern and African countries. By the end of the year 2013,
China became the largest net importer of oil in the world. That year, China spent US $
277 billion on importing energy (coal, oil and natural gas). They had to be transported
from beyond the Strait of Hormuz along the IO sea route through Malacca Strait into
the South China Sea.
Importance of this IO sea route for trade is recorded in history since antiquity when
the Roman Empire traded with India. Today its importance is not just as a transport
corridor between Africa, Middle East and Australasia through the Malacca Straits. IO
is rich in marine and natural resources including Bauxite, Chromite, Copper,
Titanium, Tungsten, natural gas and oil reserves. In terms of cargo, half of worlds
containerised cargo plies on this IO sea route. This becomes extremely important in a
context where 80% of the world trade in terms of value is on seaborne transport.
For China, the IO sea route is also about safety and security in plying important cargo
like oil. After Somali piracy, the last few years have seen an increase in high sea piracy
in the Malacca Straits, say the International Maritime Bureau (IMB). Pirate attacks in
the Malacca Straits have increased from 46 in year 2009 to 128 in year 2013. Year 2014
had not been any better, according to the IMB station in Malaysia. Therefore any
investment that can avoid total sea transport of fuel imports is vital for China. The
much hyped Chinese maritime plan for the IO named the String of Pearls by mostly
US and Indian media is more importantly a route deviation than IO dominance.

The first deviation is Gwadar port in Pakistan and the second is the Bay of Bengal
bordered Sittwe port in Myanmar. Gwadar sea port once complete and commissioned
is a key deviation for Chinese sea cargo to reach China. The whole sea route from the
Hormuz to Malacca Strait can be skipped with cargo re routed to Xinjiang region of
China. In May 2014 when Chinese President Hu Jintao visited Pakistan, the two
governments signed a deal to construct a rail road that would link Gwadar to the high
altitude Karakoram highway. The Chinese government pledged US $ 100 million for
the project. In 2013 another contract was put in place to expand the Karakoram
highway from the present 31 feet width to 99 feet width for heavy traffic to move faster
and safe even during winter. Such would give China the added advantage of moving
their industries to less developed provinces in the Western part and also in deploying
its military faster to Xinjiang where Uighur Muslims have long been rebelling.
Sittwe port that comes as the second deviation was developed by India from 2009 to
have easy and faster connectivity with its Eastern States that are basically land locked.
Bangladesh consistently denied access from their Chittagong port. Sittwe will connect
Mizoram and other Eastern States to mainland India via a road link. For the Chinese,
Sittwe port is important when connected to Chinas Yunnan province by road and rail.
China has already gained mining rights for natural gas in the Arakan region that
locates Sittwe port and has constructed gas and oil pipelines from Arakan to Yunnan.
Sittwe thus becomes another deviation to Chinese cargo, avoiding the Malacca Straits
and South China sea.
Thus Gwadar in Pakistan, Hambantota port in Sri Lanka, entrenched heavy Chinese
presence on the Myanmar coast, extending railway networks in Tibet and the
expansion of the Karakoram highway running close to the Kashmiri border makes
India feel it is now being encircled by China. This Indian concern grew when China
was involved in huge projects in Sri Lanka. Not just the Hambantota port, but
extensions and development of the Colombo International Container Terminal,

construction of the Colombo Port City on reclaimed land, the Lotus Tower to be the
tallest in South Asia for communication and leisure, were all watched with concern.
The Colombo Port City an artificial islet added more concern with the Chinese
company given a free holding land area with total control of the islet under the Chinese
company. Construction of the Lotus Tower in Colombo, the tallest in South Asia
designed and constructed by China, was initially speculated to have eavesdropping
ability on cyber traffic with communication facilities installed.
Indian concerns had been there and are there even after the Rajapaksa regime is
overturned. It is linked to the larger Chinese canvas right across the IO. It is a growing
concern with the US too that does not want to give up on its global dominance. It is
therefore eroding of the Clint Eastwood American image the Obamian foreign policy
is blamed for. Though a Bush creation, Iraq is a lost case under Obama. Egypt and
Libya is in serious crisis after regime change and the ISIS creating more chaos in Syria
and Iraq. Iran forced itself on Obamas America to compromise on its nuclear power.
Afghanistan is out of the US grip now but Russia is into Ukraine with pro Russian
rebels. Bin Laden and drones have made Pakistan anti US leaning towards its old ally,
the China. With Diego Garcia now left out as out dated in global power politics and
being too far away from IO shipping lanes, the US seem left out from the emerging
power in Asia.
Sri Lanka thus becomes important for the USs waning presence in the IO Rim area,
where new technology could compensate absence of physical presence. For the new
government of Sirisena-Wickramasinghe coalition that is ideologically dominated by
Wickramasinghes liberalism, the way out is on economic stability worked out in 2001
as Regaining Sri Lanka. That now is 15 years behind time and knew no emerging
economic power in Asia. For old liberals the US comes as a more comfortable ally than
China. For Wickramasinghe it was the US that could help escape the UNHRC led
investigations and their follow up. The regime change the US wanted in Colombo was
thus tied to the fourth US Resolution. For this new government the US initiated

Resolution with space for a Domestic Probe on all war related crimes is good
leverage to keep Southern Sinhala elements at bay and project a stable country for FDI
inflows. There were other offers as well and Sri Lanka became the first in the whole
world to sign with Google for its Loon project. The fact remains that the Google Loon
project is not what it was publicised for. It does not provide free wi-fi as first said and
is no service provider that any citizen can have access to. What it is for is extremely
unclear and may well be part of the US presence in Colombo, negating the Lotus Tower
presence of Chinese technology, if any.
What thus becomes important to the US is, they now have a political ally in a
strategically important location in the IO, where it had no permanent foothold having
lost all allies from Pakistan to Myanmar to the Philippines. With Indias resentment on
US coming back to its region and Chinas already established dominance, how this new
foothold in SL could serve the US in keeping pace with China is a Trillion Yuan
question. Given Chinas ever increasing economic power, whether US could shift Sri
Lankas economic allegiance away from China is also a Trillion Yuan question.

Posted by Thavam