5/11/2015

IndiaandChinainamultipolarworldTheHindu

TODAY'SPAPEROPINION

May11,2015

IndiaandChinainamultipolarworld
SANJAYABARU
SanjayaBaru

SanjayaBaru
Aweekbeforemarkingthefirstanniversaryofhisassumptionofoffice,PrimeMinisterNarendraModiendshisyearofhecticdiplomacywith
avisittoChina.ForIndia,nootherbilateralrelationshipismorecomplexandchallengingthantheonewithitsbiggestneighbour.
Fortunately,themistakesthatcouldhavebeenmadebyIndiaspoliticalleadershipindealingwithabigneighbourwerelimitedmostlytothe
veryfirstdecadeoftherepublic.Forhalfacentury,Indiahasbeenonalearningcurve.
JawaharlalNehruserrorsofjudgmentindealingwithChinacastalongshadowonbilateralrelations.EveryPrimeMinistersincehastread
cautiously,perhapsfartoocautiously,indealingwithChina.PrimeMinisterManmohanSinghoncesaidthathehaddevotedconsiderable
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timetoreadingcarefullythroughtheNehrufilesonChinasoasnottorepeatanyofhispredecessorsmistakes.IguesseveryPrimeMinister
wouldhavedonethatandMr.Modimaywellhavedonethistoo.
ChineseassertivenessinAsia
But,Nehruserrorsofjudgmentwerenotinevitable.Indeed,wenowknowthatasearlyasonNovember7,1950,SardarVallabhbhaiPatel
hadcautionedNehruaboutthetrustdeficitinthebilateralrelationshipandofChinasexpansionistinstinctsinAsia.Patelsprescientand
cautionarynotetoNehru,buriedingovernmentfilesfordecades,wasmadepublicadecadeagoandisnowfreelyavailableontheInternet.
IfChinaannexedTibetinNehrustime,itnowseekstousurpmaritimeterritoryinSouthChinaSea.TimewaswhenChairmanMaoZedong
dubbedtheSovietsassocialimperialists.NoonehasyetsobrandedChina.However,unlikeinthe1950swhentheworldadoptedamore
benignapproachtoChinaslandgrab,therehasbeengreaterconcernaboutChinasassertivenessinAsiawhichhasputitsleadershipon
notice.WhiletheWesternleadershipseemstobeindisarrayinrespondingtoChinassmartdiplomaticforays,Indiahaspursuedabalanced
andwisepolicyofengagingChinaateverypossiblelevelwhileremainingonfullalertindealingwithChineseassertiveness.
OneofthegreatpositivesoftheIndiaChinarelationshipoverthepastdecadehasbeentheincreasedbusinesstobusinessandpeopleto
peoplecontactsbetweencitizensofthetwocountries.AhighlightofMr.ModisvisitwillbeapublicmeetingwiththeIndiancommunityin
China.WhilethisdrawsattentiontotheincreasedpresenceofIndiansinChina,IndiacandomoretofacilitatethetravelofChinesetoIndia.
MillionsofChineseBuddhistswouldwanttovisitifIndiaweretobecomeamoreattractivedestination.Institutionalandprofessional
interactionmustalsoincrease.IndianAmericansintheU.S.arefullofstoriesabouthowtheyfinditeasiertotraveltoandworkwithChinese
academicsandbusinessesthanwithIndiancounterparts.AsaU.S.analystonceputit,Chinaisaclosedsocietywithanopenmind,Indiais
anopensocietywithaclosedmind.
Thetimehascomeforthebilateralrelationshiptomovewellbeyondofficialgovernmenttogovernmentrelations,preciselybecausethe
bilateralrelationshiphasbecomemorestable,despiteepisodicprovocationontheborderbyChina.ThereareseveralreasonswhyChinamay
notwanttopushIndiabeyondapoint.First,Indiahasdemonstrateditsabilitytotideoveravarietyofpoliticalandeconomicstormsthat
haveengulfeditfromtimetotime,therebyestablishingtheresilienceoftheIndianstatesecond,despiteallitsweaknesses,theIndian
economyhasdemonstrateditscapacitytosustainhigherratesofeconomicgrowththird,Indiasflexiblediplomacyhasenabledittowiden
itsgeopoliticaloptionsfinally,ChinasassertivenessinitsneighbourhoodhasencouragedmanyAsiannationstotakeamorebenignviewof
Indiasrise.
Inadifferentleague
TheproblemthatIndiaspoliticalleadershiphasdealtwithisthecomingtotermswithChinasmanifest,comprehensivenationalpower.
Indiawaslulledintocomplacencybythemyththatthetwocivilisationalneighboursweresomehowinthesameleaguemerelybecauseboth
hadapopulationofoverabillion!Today,ChinaseconomyisfivetimesbiggerthanIndias.
ThatChinawasalreadyinadifferentleaguewasmadebrutallycleartoIndiaevenasearlyasin1945bynoneotherthanJohnMaynard
KeyneswhorefusedtogiveIndiathesamevotingshareasthatofChinainthenewlyformedInternationalMonetaryFund.Keynessstudent,
J.J.Anjaria,representingthegovernmentofIndia,foughtforparitywithChinabutfailedtoconvinceKeynesandtheAmericans.Thencame
themembershipoftheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilandoftheNuclearNonProliferationTreaty(NPT).
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TheAsiancentury
Recoveringfromtheignominyofthe1962war,ourpoliticalleadershipwentintoasecondboutofselfdelusionwhenitboughtintotheview,
bestexpressedbyChinasGreatModerniser,DengXiaoping,whofamouslytoldRajivGandhiAnAsianCenturyisonlypossiblewhenIndia
andChinacometogether.
Dengsaidthatin1988whenChinahadnotyetdemonstrateditscapacitytoemergeastheundisputedpowerofAsia.Today,fewinChina
believethatasanecessarypreconditionforthe21stcenturytobeChinas.AnewpostDenggenerationofsmartyoungChinesebelieve
tomorrowbelongstothem.InChinesePresidentsXiJinpingswords,theybelieveintheChinesedreamofaworldinwhichChinawould
onceagainbethecynosureofalleyes.
HowtheIndiaChinarelationshipdevelopsintheyearstocomewilldependonwhethertheChinesestillbelieveinDengsviewthatthe21st
centurycannotbeAsiaswithoutChinaandIndiacomingtogether,orwhethertheycometoimaginethemselvestobethemastersofthis
century,muchliketheBritishwereofthe19thandtheAmericansofthe20th.ManywesternandAsiananalysts,blindedbyChinasbright
lightsandseducedbyitscharms,havebeenholdingforthhowthe21stCenturywillindeedbeChinas.DefensiveAmericananalystshave
respondedwithargumentstoclaimthattheU.S.willbrooknochallengeandwill,ifnecessary,containChina.
Multipolarityandtheworld
Makenomistake.The21stcenturywillnotbeChinascenturyalonenorwillitremainAmericas.Thegeopoliticalandgeoeconomic
conditionsthatenabledBritaintobecomeGreatinthe19thcenturyandclaimthatcenturyforitself,buildingaglobalempire,andthat
enabledtheU.S.toemergeasthedominantworldpowerofthe20thcenturydonotexistforChinaoranyoneelsetoday.Theunipolarworld
oftheBritishandAmericanempireswasahistoricalaberration.Europeanscholarshipwronglyviewedallgreatpowersinhistoryasglobal

powers.Theglobalmomentofmanyofthemwasshortlived.Atbesttheywereallcontinentalpowers.Multipolarityorpolycentricdispersal
ofpowerandprosperitydefinesthenormalstateoftheworld.
IfChinasucceedsinbecomingbothapredominantmaritimepoweroftheIndoPacificregionandthepredominantlandpowerofthe
Eurasianlandmass,itwouldofcourseemergeasthedominantworldpowerofthe21stcentury.ChinascontrolofTibetanditsswayoverthe
Eurasianlandmass,ontheoneside,anditscontroloverSouthChinaSeaandtheIndoPacificregionontheotherbecomecentraltoany
questforunipolardominance.Butthatisnotinevitable.
IfChinaseekstodominatethelandtoitswestandthewaterstoitseastandsouthandtherebyemergeasthehegemonofthecentury,itwill
forceallothermajorpowers,includingRussiaatsomepoint,tocometogetherandresistsuchabuildup.Ontheotherhand,ifChinarejects
suchanimperialistviewofhistory,andtrulybelievesinthecreationofamultipolarworldofthepreimperialera,thenitcanworkwithIndia
andotherpowersofEuropeandAsia.WhatpathChinachoosesforitselfwilldeterminehowothernationsrespondtoitsrise.
ForIndia,thetaskiscutout.Attheendofayearofhecticdiplomacy,Mr.Modiwouldhavediscoveredthatallthekingshorsesandallthe
kingsmencannotputtheHumptyDumptyofnationalpowerbackinshapeifitseconomycrumblesundertheweightofbadpolicy.A
countrysinternationalstatureandpowerisbuiltinitsfields,factories,classrooms,laboratoriesandneighbourhoods.Notatthehightables
ofdiplomacy,norontelevision.
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(SanjayaBaruisDirectorforGeoeconomicsandStrategy,InternationalInstituteforStrategicStudies,andHonorarySeniorFellow,
CentreforPolicyResearch,NewDelhi.)
Unlikeinthe1950swhentheworldadoptedamorebenignapproachtoChinaslandgrab,therehasbeengreater
concernaboutChinasassertivenessinAsiawhichhasputitsleadershiponnotice.
IfChinarejectsanimperialistviewofhistoryandbelievesinthecreationofamultipolarworldofthepreimperialera,
thenitcanworkwithIndiaandotherworldpowers.WhatpathChinachoosesforitselfwilldeterminehowother
nationsrespondtoitsrise.ForIndia,thetaskiscutout
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