Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 4,610 Ontarians by Smart IVR on September 21, 2015.

A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Regional margins of error: North:
+/-3.54%; East: +/-3.56%; Southwest: +/-3.52%; South Central: +/- 3.52%; GTA +/-3.5%;
Toronto (416) : +/-3.56% 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender
based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

September 22, 2015 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds incredibly tight regional races
in Ontario between the Conservatives and the Liberals. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of
error of +/- 1.5%, 19 times out of 20.
The resiliency of the Conservative vote continues to surprise, last week we found them leading in British
Columbia substantially and today we find they continue to lead in Ontario despite a Liberal surge, said
Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. The Liberals are just 4% back among all voters and among
decided and leaning voters. The NDP finds itself in third place in Ontario with just 22% among decided and
leaning voters, 12% back of the second place Liberals.
The NDP strength in Ontario is in the 416 and the north where they have 21% of all voters, despite that,
they trail by 13% in the 416 where the Conservatives have moved in to a close second place at 28%. In the
north, the NDP is behind both the Conservatives (29%) and the Liberals (29%) by 8%.
The Conservatives (33%) lead in the GTA by 4% over the Liberals (29%), in South Central the lead is 3%
with the Tories at 29% followed by the Liberals at 26%. In the East the Conservative lead is just 1%, 32% to
31% over the Liberals. Finally, in South Western Ontario, they lead significantly by a margin of 15%, at 39%
over the Liberals at 24%. Liberals continue to surge across Ontario at the expense of the NDP but lead in
just a single region, Toronto, where they have a comfortable 6% lead (34%) over the Conservatives (28%).
A hint at the cause of the resurgence of the federal Conservatives can be seen when we look at the
provincial voting intentions, the Progressive Conservatives (40%) lead the Ontario Liberals (30%) by 10%
among decided and leaning voters. Provincial issues have come in to play federally across Ontario
including the proposed Hydro One sale, the sex ed curriculum and ongoing disputes with Teachers unions.
The PC voter loyalty to the federal Conservatives is highest with 74% indicating their support for the
federal party. Among Ontario Liberal voters, 64% are voting for the Liberal Party of Canada and among
Ontario NDP supporters, just 52% will vote for their federal NDP cousins. This would suggest that Tom
Mulcair's strategy to tack right during this campaign has alienated supporters of Ontarios NDP.
The leaders debate on the economy may have had an effect on Ontario voters as a regained strength for
the Conservatives is felt across Ontario. Tom Mulcair may have gambled too heavily on the strategy of
being the credible alternative to Stephen Harper. By agreeing with Stephen Harper on a number of
economic issues like balanced budgets and the F-35 procurement he has failed to differentiate himself
from the current Prime Minister driving voters to both the Conservatives who prefer the original Harper
and to the Liberals who are anti-Harper voters.
As our polling has shown and continues to show, the second choice of NDP voters among those who
might change their minds is overwhelmingly Liberal, in this case in Ontario, it sits at 68%. These results may
signal a break in the three way stalemate that has dominated the vast majority of the campaign.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion,
having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate
pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If the Federal Election

were today,
which
party would you support?
LEANING
AND
DECIDED

35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
Conservative

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

6%

34%

22%

38%

16%

5%

29%

17%

33%

Decided & Leaning

NDP

Liberal

Green

18-34
30%
18%
32%
6%
14%
558

Undecided

35-49
32%
19%
25%
5%
18%
1044
North
29%
21%
29%
5%
17%
765

50-64
32%
17%
29%
5%
18%
1503
East
32%
16%
31%
6%
16%
756

65+ Male Female

38% 35% 30%
15% 18%
17%
30% 28% 30%
4%
5%
5%
13% 14%
18%
1505 2150 2460

SW
39%
16%
24%
6%
15%
773

SC
29%
19%
26%
5%
21%
776

GTA
33%
16%
29%
4%
18%
782

416
28%
21%
34%
4%
13%
758

A4

And, which party are you leaning toward voting for?

13%

14%

57%
12%

3%

Conservative

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a

chance you will change your mind before the next election?

STRONG SUPPORTER
MIGHT CHANGE MIND
DONT KNOW

CPC
80%
16%
4%

NDP
56%
36%
8%

LPC
59%
32%
9%

GPC
57%
35%
8%

A5

And who would be LEANING

your second
choice?
[MIGHT SWITCH ONLY]
AND
DECIDED

40
35
30
25
20
15
10

Conservative

NDP

Liberal

Green

Undecided

CPC NDP
x
17%
27%
x
26% 68%
9%
7%
39% 7%

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED
CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED

13%

7%

31%

42%

7%

North
7%
42%
31%
7%
13%

East
12%
39%
28%
9%
13%

SW
9%
40%
28%
7%
16%

SC
10%
35%
26%
13%
18%

LPC
15%
62%
x
6%
16%

GTA
23%
31%
28%
6%
12%

GP
5%
40%
26%
x
29%
416
10%
39%
34%
5%
12%

A6

And, if a provincial election

were held
today,
which party would you support?
LEANING
AND
DECIDED

35
30
25
20
15
10

All Voters
ONDP

OLP

ONTARIO NDP
ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
ONTARIO GREENS
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
ONTARIO NDP
ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
ONTARIO GREENS
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

7%

40%

30%

24%

21%

5%

31%

24%

19%

Decided & Leaning

PCs

Ontario Green

18-34
25%
21%
28%
8%
18%
558

35-49
18%
23%
31%
6%
22%
1044

Undecided

50-64
16%
25%
32%
3%
23%
1503

North East
22%
16%
22%
21%
26% 34%
6%
4%
24% 25%
765
756

65+ Male Female

15% 19%
19%
28% 21%
26%
36% 37%
26%
3%
6%
5%
19% 17%
25%
1505 2150 2460

SW
23%
18%
37%
6%
15%
773

SC
18%
26%
29%
8%
19%
776

GTA 416
18% 17%
23% 30%
30% 29%
4%
5%
24% 19%
782 758

A7

And, if a provincial election

were held
today,
which party would you support?
LEANING
AND
DECIDED

17%

8%

12%
72%
9%

ABOVE: 72% of PC Voters are supporting the federal Conservatives.

CONSERVATIVE
NDP
LIBERAL
GREEN
UNDECIDED

ONP
16%
52%
20%
2%
9%

OLP
9%
15%
64%
3%
9%

PC
74%
5%
11%
1%
9%

OGP UD
10% 17%
11%
9%
23% 25%
45% 5%
10% 44%

ONTARIO NDP
ONTARIO LIBERAL PARTY
PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE
ONTARIO GREENS
UNDECIDED

CPC
9%
6%
72%
2%
11%

NDP
56%
20%
9%
3%
11%

LPC
13%
53%
12%
4%
18%

GPC UD
8% 10%
13% 13%
8%
17%
49% 3%
22% 56%

A8

SCRIPT
How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
Not eligible to vote
And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?
The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
The NDP led by Tom Mulcair
The Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
The Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
The NDP led by Tom Mulcair
The Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
The Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change
your mind before the next election?
Strong supporter
Might change your mind
Dont know
And who would be your second choice?
The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper
The NDP led by Tom Mulcair
The Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
The Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And, if a provincial election were held today, who would you vote for among the following options?
The NDP led by Andrea Horwath
The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
The Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown
The Green Party led by Mike Schreiner
Undecided

A9

RIDING & REGION BREAKDOWN

GTA
Ajax
AuroraOak RidgesRichmond Hill
Brampton Centre
Brampton East
Brampton North
Brampton South
Brampton West
Durham
KingVaughan
MarkhamStouffville
MarkhamThornhill
MarkhamUnionville
Mississauga Centre
Mississauga EastCooksville
MississaugaErin Mills
MississaugaLakeshore
MississaugaMalton
MississaugaStreetsville
Oshawa
PickeringUxbridge
Richmond Hill
Thornhill
VaughanWoodbridge
Whitby
BarrieInnisfil
BarrieSpringwaterOro-Medonte
DufferinCaledon
NewmarketAurora
Simcoe North
YorkSimcoe

NORTH
AlgomaManitoulinKapuskasing
HuronBruce
Kenora
Nickel Belt
NipissingTimiskaming
Parry SoundMuskoka
Sault Ste. Marie
Sudbury
Thunder BayRainy River
Thunder BaySuperior North
TimminsJames Bay

EAST
Bay of Quinte
Carleton
GlengarryPrescottRussell
HaliburtonKawartha LakesBrock
HastingsLennox and Addington
KanataCarleton
Kingston and the Islands
LanarkFrontenacKingston
LeedsGrenvilleThousand Islands and Rideau Lakes
Nepean
NorthumberlandPeterborough South
Orlans
Ottawa Centre
Ottawa South
Ottawa WestNepean
OttawaVanier
PeterboroughKawartha
RenfrewNipissingPembroke
StormontDundasSouth Glengarry
SOUTH-CENTRAL
BrantfordBrant
Burlington
FlamboroughGlanbrook
HaldimandNorfolk
Hamilton Centre
Hamilton EastStoney Creek
Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton WestAncasterDundas
Milton
Niagara Centre
Niagara Falls
Niagara West
Oakville
Oakville NorthBurlington
SimcoeGrey
St. Catharines

A10

RIDING & REGION BREAKDOWN (CONT)

SOUTH-WEST
BruceGreyOwen Sound
Cambridge
Chatham-KentLeamington
ElginMiddlesexLondon
Essex
Guelph
Kitchener Centre
Kitchener SouthHespeler
KitchenerConestoga
LambtonKentMiddlesex
London North Centre
London West
LondonFanshawe
Oxford
PerthWellington
SarniaLambton
Waterloo
WellingtonHalton Hills
Windsor West
WindsorTecumseh

TORONTO (416)
BeachesEast York
Davenport
Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Don Valley West
EglintonLawrence
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke North
EtobicokeLakeshore
Humber RiverBlack Creek
ParkdaleHigh Park
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough North
Scarborough Southwest
ScarboroughAgincourt
ScarboroughGuildwood
ScarboroughRouge Park
SpadinaFort York
Toronto Centre
TorontoDanforth
TorontoSt. Paul's
UniversityRosedale
Willowdale
York Centre
York SouthWeston

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all
three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator
on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority
Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario.
Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral
election.