Supplement for Statistics 260

Sample Final Examination 1

4-1

STATISTICS 260
SAMPLE FINAL EXAMINATION 1
(from Spring Term 2001)
INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Use a PENCIL HB or softer.
2. Your NAME and STUDENT NUMBER must be recorded on BOTH your question paper and in
CODED FORM on your green answer sheet.
3. Hand calculators are permitted; calculator memories must be cleared just before the examination
begins. No other aids are permitted, except the Formula List and Statistical Tables which are
provided.
4. Questions 1 through 32 are multiple-choice questions worth 2 marks each. Code your answers
on the green answer sheet provided. For questions requiring numerical answers, the 10 choices are
listed in numerically increasing order. Choose the value that is nearest your (unrounded) answer.
In the special case that your (unrounded) answer is equidistant from the two nearest choices, choose the
larger of these two choices. For verification purposes, show all calculations on your question

paper. Unverified answers may be disallowed.

5. Questions 33 and 34 are full-answer questions worth 8 marks each. For each of these questions
write out your solution carefully and completely on the question paper. Marks will be deducted for
incomplete or poorly presented solutions.
Maximum Score is 80 marks.
Note: To conserve paper, no working space is provided on this sample exam. Working space will be
provided on the real exam.

Questions 1 through 3 refer to the following setup. CM Company manufactures computer monitors
at three different sites: Plant A, Plant B, Plant C. Monitors not requiring any warranty service are given
a High Quality rating at the end of the warranty period, monitors requiring warranty service are given a
Medium Quality rating, and monitors requiring replacement under warranty are given a Low Quality
rating. The following table gives proportions of CMs total production for the various categories.
Quality Rating
High

Medium

Low

Plant A

.13

.24

.03

Plant B

.09

.21

.05

Plant C

.08

.15

.02

Suppose a CM Monitor is purchased (at random from CMs inventory).

Supplement for Statistics 260

Sample Final Examination 1

4-2

1. What is the probability that the purchased monitor was manufactured by Plant C or will receive a
High Quality rating?
(A) .45
(B) .50
(C) .55
(D) .60
(E) .65
(F) .70
(G) .75
(H) .80
(I) .85
(J) .90
2. If the purchased monitor was manufactured by Plant A, what is the probability that it will earn a Low
Quality rating?
(A) .02
(B) .04
(C) .06
(D) .08
(E) .10
(F) .12
(G) .14
(H) .16
(I) .18
(J) .20
3. Which of the following statements are true?
(i) The events purchased monitor was manufactured by Plant A and purchased monitor was
manufactured by Plant B are independent.
(ii) The events purchased monitor was manufactured by Plant A and purchased monitor was
manufactured by Plant B are mutually exclusive.
(iii) The events purchased monitor will receive a High Quality rating and purchased monitor was
manufactured by Plant C are independent.
(A) None
(B) Only (i)
(C) Only (ii)
(D) Only (iii)
(E) (i) & (ii)
(F) (i) & (iii)
(G) (ii) & (iii)
(H) All

Questions 4 through 6 refer to the following setup. A manufacturer of a certain model of car has
recalled all sold units to correct a brake defect. A second recall was necessary when a second brake
defect was discovered. 55% of the owners of the affected cars responded to both recalls; 30% responded
only to the first recall; 15% percent responded to neither recall. The probability that a malfunction in the
brakes occurs during the warranty period after the second recall notice was issued is:
.1 for cars whose owners responded to both recalls,
.3 for cars whose owners responded only to the first recall,
.8 for cars whose owners responded to neither recall.
4. What is the probability that a car randomly chosen from all those sold, experiences a brake
malfunction during the warranty period after the second recall?
(A) .05
(B) .10
(C) .15
(D) .20
(E) .25
(F) .30
(G) .35
(H) .40
(I) .45
(J) .50
5. If a car randomly chosen from all those sold experiences a brake malfunction during the warranty
period after the second recall, what is the probability that the owner responded to neither recall?
(A) .40
(B) .45
(C) .50
(D) .55
(E) .60
(F) .65
(G) .70
(H) .75
(I) .80
(J) .85
6. For a randomly chosen owner, what is the expected value of the number X of recall notices the car
owner responded to?
(A) 1.00
(B) 1.05
(C) 1.10
(D) 1.15
(E) 1.20
(F) 1.25
(G) 1.30
(H) 1.35
(I) 1.40
(J) 1.45

Supplement for Statistics 260

Sample Final Examination 1

4-3

Questions 7 through 9 refer to the following setup. The route used by a certain motorist in
commuting to work passes through three traffic lights. The probability that the commuter must stop at
the first, second, third traffic light is .4, .5, .7, respectively. Assume the three events: commuter must
stop at the first traffic light, commuter must stop at the second traffic light, commuter must stop at
the third traffic light, are independent events.
7. What is the probability that on the way to work the commuter must stop all three traffic lights?
(A) .01
(B) .04
(C) .07
(D) .10
(E) .13
(F) .16
(G) .19
(H) .22
(I) .25
(J) .28
8. What is the probability that on the way to work the commuter must stop at exactly one of the three
traffic lights?
(A) .05
(B) .10
(C) .15
(D) .20
(E) .25
(F) .30
(G) .35
(H) .40
(I) .45
(J) .50
9. What is the probability that the commuter will not have to stop at any of the three lights on exactly
one of the next five trips to work? (i.e. What is the probability that exactly one of the next five trips to
work will be stop-free?)
(A) .05
(B) .10
(C) .15
(D) .20
(E) .25
(F) .30
(G) .35
(H) .40
(I) .45
(J) .50

Questions 10 and 11 refer to the following setup. Suppose that trees are randomly distributed over a
certain forest region at the average rate of 60 trees per hectare.
10. What is the probability that in a certain one-quarter hectare plot there will be at most 10 trees?
(A) .05
(B) .10
(C) .15
(D) .20
(E) .25
(F) .30
(G) .35
(H) .40
(I) .45
(J) .50
11. Given that there are at most 20 trees in a certain one-quarter hectare plot, what is the probability that
there are more than 10 trees in this plot?
(A) .66
(B) .69
(C) .72
(D) .75
(E) .78
(F) .81
(G) .84
(H) .87
(I) .90
(J) .93

12. Assume that 60% of all households in a certain large city have microwave ovens. What is the
probability that 20 households chosen at random from this city will include at least 13 households
having microwave ovens?
(A) .25
(B) .30
(C) .35
(D) .40
(E) .45
(F) .50
(G) .55
(H) .60
(I) .65
(J) .70

Questions 13 through 15 refer to the following setup. The reaction time (in tenths of seconds) to a
certain stimulus is a continuous random variable with pdf:

Supplement for Statistics 260

Sample Final Examination 1

4-4

13. What is the probability that reaction time is at most 2 tenths of a second?
(A) .10
(B) .15
(C) .20
(D) .25
(F) .35
(G) .40
(H) .45
(I) .50

(E) .30
(J) .55

14. Compute the expected reaction time (in tenths of seconds).

(A) 1.7
(B) 1.9
(C) 2.1
(D) 2.3
(F) 2.7
(G) 2.9
(H) 3.1
(I) 3.3

(E) 2.5
(J) 3.5

15. Compute the 75th percentile of the distribution of reaction time (in tenths of seconds).
(A) 1.3
(B) 1.6
(C) 1.9
(D) 2.2
(E) 2.5
(F) 2.8
(G) 3.1
(H) 3.4
(I) 3.7
(J) 4.0

Questions 16 through 18 refer to the following setup. A certain company rates its product on
reliability, X, and customer satisfaction, Y. Suppose the joint pmf of X and Y is given by the
following table.
y

16. Compute
(A) .50
(F) .65

-1

.10

.03

.02

.06

.21

.33

.04

.06

.15

(B) .53
(G) .68

(C) .56
(H) .71

(D) .59
(I) .74

(E) .62
(J) .77

17. Compute the covariance of X and Y.

(A) -.24
(B) -.16
(C) -.08
(F) .16
(G) .24
(H) .32

(D) 0
(I) .40

(E) .08
(J) .48

18. Compute the variance of the total score T = X + Y.

(A) .1
(B) .3
(C) .5
(F) 1.1
(G) 1.3
(H) 1.5

(D) .7
(I) 1.7

(E) .9
(J) 1.9

19. Extensive experience with units of a certain type has suggested that the exponential distribution
provides a good model for the time until failure. Suppose the mean time until failure is 4.8 years.
What is the probability that a randomly selected unit of this type will last between 2.0 and 5.0 years?
(A) .25
(B) .30
(C) .35
(D) .40
(E) .45
(F) .50
(G) .55
(H) .60
(I) .65
(J) .70

Supplement for Statistics 260

Sample Final Examination 1

4-5

Questions 20 and 21 refer to the following setup. The breakdown voltage of a randomly chosen
diode of a certain type is known to be normally distributed with mean value 35 volts and standard
deviation 2 volts.
20. What value is such that only 3% of all diodes have breakdown voltages exceeding that value?
(A) 38.4
(B) 38.6
(C) 38.8
(D) 39.0
(E) 39.2
(F) 39.4
(G) 39.6
(H) 39.8
(I) 40.2
(J) 40.4
21. What is the probability that a randomly chosen diode will have breakdown voltage exceeding 36
volts?
(A) .07
(B) .10
(C) .13
(D) .16
(E) .19
(F) .22
(G) .25
(H) .28
(I) .31
(J) .34

22. Manufacture of a certain component requires two different machining operations. Machining time
for each operation has a normal distribution, and the two times are independent of one another. The
mean values are 30 minutes and 20 minutes, respectively, and the standard deviations are 3 minutes
and 2 minutes, respectively. What is the probability that the total machining time for one of these
components will be less than 45 minutes?
(A) .02
(B) .05
(C) .08
(D) .11
(E) .14
(F) .17
(G) .20
(H) .23
(I) .26
(J) .29

Questions 23 and 24 refer to the following setup. A manufacturing process is designed to produce
bolts with diameter = 12 mm. Once each day, a random sample of 36 bolts is selected and the
diameters recorded. If the resulting sample mean is less than 11.9 mm or greater than 12.1 mm, the
process is shut down for adjustment. The standard deviation for diameter is .3 mm.
23. What is the probability that the process will be shut down for adjustment on a day when the true
process mean is actually 12 mm?
(A) .001
(B) .005
(C) .01
(D) .03
(E) .05
(F) .10
(G) .15
(H) .20
(I) .30
(J) .40
24. What is the probability that the process will not be shut down for adjustment on a day when the true
process mean is 12.1 mm?
(A) .05
(B) .10
(C) .15
(D) .20
(E) .25
(F) .30
(G) .35
(H) .40
(I) .45
(J) .50

Questions 25 and 26 refer to the following setup. At a certain computer facility, the inter-arrival
times (in hours) between successive system crashes are independent random variables each having the
same Exponential distribution with cdf:
. Suppose the 5 most recent
inter-arrival times were: 7.1 hours, 3.6 hours, 10.9 hours, 15.4 hours, and 5.2 hours.
25. Based on these data, find the maximum likelihood estimate of 8.
(A) .02
(B) .12
(C) .22
(D) .32
(F) 1.0
(G) 2.0
(H) 4.0
(I) 6.0

(E) .42
(J) 8.0

Supplement for Statistics 260

Sample Final Examination 1

4-6

26. Based on these data, find the maximum likelihood estimate of , the median of the distribution of
inter-arrival times.
(A) .2
(B) .5
(C) 1
(D) 2
(E) 3
(F) 4
(G) 5
(H) 6
(I) 7
(J) 8

27. Suppose

is a random sample of size n = 3 from a population distribution having

unknown mean : and unknown standard deviation F. Consider the following three estimators for :.
Which of the following statements are true?
(i) T is an unbiased estimator for :.
(ii) Y is more efficient than W for estimating :.
(iii) T is more efficient than W for estimating :.
(A) None
(B) Only (i)
(C) Only (ii)
(E) (i) & (ii)
(F) (i) & (iii)
(G) (ii) & (iii)

(D) Only (iii)

(H) All

Questions 28 and 29 refer to the following setup. Six soil samples taken from a particular region
were subjected to chemical analysis to determine the pH of each sample, yielding a sample mean pH
of 5.9 and a sample standard deviation of .62. Assume the distribution of soil pH in this region is
normal.
28. Compute the upper limit of a 95 % confidence interval for the true mean pH of soil in this region.
(A) 6.40
(B) 6.45
(C) 6.50
(D) 6.55
(E) 6.60
(F) 6.65
(G) 6.70
(H) 6.75
(I) 6.80
(J) 6.85
29. How many observations would be needed to obtain a 95 % confidence interval for true mean pH
having length approximately .35?
(A) 10
(B) 15
(C) 20
(D) 30
(E) 40
(F) 50
(G) 60
(H) 70
(I) 80
(J) 90

30. In a batch chemical process, two catalysts are compared for their effect on the output of the process
reaction. A sample of 12 batches was prepared using catalyst 1 and a sample of 10 batches was
obtained using catalyst 2. The 12 batches for which catalyst 1 was used gave a sample mean yield of
85 with a sample standard deviation of 4, while the 10 batches for which catalyst 2 was used gave a
sample mean yield of 81 with a sample standard deviation of 5. Let :1 and :2 denote the true mean
yields using catalysts 1 and 2, respectively. Compute the lower limit of a 90% confidence interval
for :1 - :2 .
(A) -.1
(B) 0
(C) .1
(D) .2
(E) .3
(F) .4
(G) .5
(H) .6
(I) .7
(J) .8
31. To compare two brands of radial tires, 50 tires of each brand were tested and the following sample
mean lifetimes (in kilometres) and sample standard deviations for each of the two brands were obtained:

Supplement for Statistics 260

Sample Final Examination 1

4-7

Brand A :
Brand B :
Compute the upper limit of a 99 % confidence interval for
lifetime of Brand A tires and
(A) 5300
(F) 7000

(B) 5700
(G) 7300

, where

is the true mean

is the true mean lifetime of Brand B tires?

(C) 6100
(H) 7600

(D) 6400
(I) 7900

(E) 6700
(J) 8200

32. The true proportion of defective memory chips produced by a certain company is p. Suppose a
random sample of 400 memory chips are tested and 10 of them are found to be defective. Compute
the lower limit of a 92 % confidence interval for p.
(A) .006
(B) .007
(C) .008
(D) .009
(E) .010
(F) .011
(G) .012
(H) .013
(I) .014
(J) .015
33. Five samples of a ferrous-type substance are to be used to determine if there is a difference between
a laboratory chemical analysis and an X-ray fluorescence analysis of the iron content. Each sample was
split into two sub-samples and the two types of analysis were applied. Following are the data showing
the iron content (in percent).
Sample
Analysis

Chemical

2.2

1.9

2.5

2.3

2.4

X-Ray

2.0

2.0

2.3

2.1

2.4

Do these data indicate that the two methods of analysis give, an the average, a different result? Assume
the relevant population distribution(s) is/are normal.
(a) Using standard notation, define the population parameter(s) being tested.
(b) Specify the null and alternative hypotheses.
(c) Compute the observed value of the test statistic.
(d) Compute the P-value (or bracket the P-value) within Table accuracy, and indicate the probability
distribution used for this computation.
(e) State your conclusion, and report the estimated value of the parameter being tested and the estimated
standard error.
34. A random sample of 10 times of first sprinkler activation for a series of tests with fire prevention
sprinkler systems using an aqueous film-forming foam yielded a sample mean activation time of 24.3
seconds and a sample standard deviation of 5.1 seconds. The system has been designed so that the true
mean activation time : is at most 20 seconds. Do these data strongly contradict the validity of this
specification? Assume the distribution of activation times is normal.
(a) Specify the null and alternative hypotheses.
(b) Compute the observed value of the test statistic.

Supplement for Statistics 260

Sample Final Examination 1

4-8

(c) Compute the P-value (or bracket the P-value) within Table accuracy, and indicate the probability
distribution used for this computation.

Supplement for Statistics 260

Sample Final Examination 1

4-9

(d) State your conclusion, and report the estimated value of the parameter being tested and the estimated
standard error.
(e) Determine whether or not the null hypothesis should be rejected at significance level " = 0.05.
ANSWERS FOR SAMPLE FINAL EXAMINATION 1
1. .47 (A)

2. .075 (D)

3. (C)

4. .265 (E)

5. .453 (B)

6. 1.40 (I)

7. .14 (E)

8. .36 (G)

10. .118 (B)

11. .871 (H)

12. .416 (D)

13. .4375 (H)

14. 2.333 (D)

15. 3.0 (G)

16. .62 (E)

17. .16 (F)

18. 1.32 (G)

19. .306 (B)

20. 38.76 (C)

21. .3085 (I)

22. .0823 (C)

23. .0456 (E)

24. .50 (J)

25. .118 (B)

26. 5.85 (H)

27. (C)

28. 6.55 (D)

29. 49 (F)

30. .69 (I)

31. 7292 (G)

32. .01134 (F)

33.

(a)

9.

(F)

true mean difference ( % iron using Chemical Analysis minus % iron using X-ray)

(b)
(c)

(d) P-value =
(e) There is no evidence (
estimated standard error = .063.
34.

) that

. The estimated value of

is .1, with

(a)
(b)
(c)

(d) There is strong evidence (

) that
seconds, with estimated standard error = 1.6 seconds.
(e) Since

reject

at

. The estimated value of

is 24.3