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China or Iran: Who Is the Bigger Threat to U.S. Airpower? | The Diplomat
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9/20/2015
China or Iran: Who Is the Bigger Threat to U.S. Airpower? | The Diplomat
The accuracy, payloads, and ranges of the weapons in Irans ballistic missile arsenal are inadequate to seriously threaten U.S.
air operations, in part because U.S. forces could operate from a large number of bases outside the worst threat ring (i.e., more
than 500 km from Irans border), Heim summarizes.
Although Iran with over 1,000 ballistic missiles in its inventory has the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East,
the majority of Tehrans arsenal consists of variants of technologically outdated Soviet Scud missiles that could not
significantly threaten U.S. operations outside a 500 km radius. Some of the more dangerous missiles in Irans inventory are
the solid-fueled Fateh-110, the liquid-fueled BM-25 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), and the still-under-development
two-stage solid fueled Ashoura MRBM.
However, military planners still have numerous options for basing fighters outside the effective TBM [theater ballistic
missile] threat ring in SWA [Southwest Asia]an option that they do not have in East Asia, Heim emphasizes. This fact also
has implications for U.S. force structure because the basing options in SWA mean that legacy short-range fighters can still
contribute a great deal of combat power from comparative sanctuary.
Even within the 500 km range, there are multiple ways the U.S. military can counter the Iranian ballistic missile threat and
continue to operate. For example, a prudent planner could avoid parking significant numbers of aircraft in the open,
distribute parked aircraft across a wide area, and operate fighters from hardened air bases, according to Heim.
Heims overall conclusion: Iran can still threaten TBM strikes on major cities as punishment for any country that does so, but
it currently lacks a credible capability to deny U.S. air operations () [T]he Iranian ballistic missile threat to U.S. air bases is
exaggerated by the Iranians and likely to remain modest, relative to the threat those bases face in East Asia.
As a consequence he suggests that scarce funds to harden air bases should be allocated first to the Western Pacific, where
Chinas growing TBM force presents a much greater concern.
http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/china-or-iran-who-is-the-bigger-threat-to-u-s-airpower/?allpages=yes&print=yes
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