Case Study on Quantitative Analysis

Understanding Political Polls

Jahja - EMBA Class Batch 3
Based on the case study of Understanding Political Polls, there are two cases to be analyzed. First,
the national survey of Canadians and second is the Ontario poll sample.
From the National Survey case study some point to be observed are :
The sample taken for the survey is unclear, there no information about some factor that
considered will impact the result like gender, age, region. In this case this sample might be
not representative for the voting-age Canadians.
There is no segregation and demographic separation when choosing the sample so it is not
representative the whole nation.
There is two level of error standard that use in this case which cause misleading perception.
Since there is two level of error than it bring up two perception. This situation create
different level of confidence, 95% and 98.1%.
This survey did not include the individuals who were not voting or voting other parties
beside Liberals and Conservatives.
From the Ontario poll sample case study some point to be observed are :
The sample is not represent the total population.
This poll want to show the difference result between age, but there is a miss between age
range, age 30 49 is not covered in this poll. In this case demographic aspect is tried to
given but uncomplete so it cause misleading interpretation.
The Ontario sample compare to national sample is not proportional, because the way taking
the sample doesnt follow standard criteria for random sampling.
Poll result said that support drops off dramatically after age 65, but this statement isnt
correct, because the sample doesnt represent all the categorical age and doesnt give
comparison with last poll.
The level of error is having two perception because the error rate is written in 3.2 % plus or
minus so it give a total level of error 6.4% and the other error level is 1 times out of 20 or
equal of 5%.
Because of this difference, it cause two level of confidence 95% and 93.6%.
Because of misleading perception, the conclusion is not correct and cant be used for
decision making.
Based on the observation above, the important thing when taking a sample is the sample has to
proportional with the population so there no bias when analyzing the result. If the poll want to show
demographic pattern then all things that affect the demographic must be put per each level. The
proportional sample on demographic should be concerned to avoid bias.
Random sampling is not to correct to use when doing a survey or poll because it is not reflect the
demographic aspect like gender, age, region, etc. To conduct a survey or poll, it would be better if
using stratified sampling. Using stratified sample is more correct for collecting opinion polls to
improve the representativeness of the each diversification in the population and thus reduced the
error level.
When choosing sample size at least 30% of the population size should be included in the sample
size. In this case study, the sample size doesnt meet this criteria so the sample is not proportional to
population.